!

Anchialine)Pools) Climate(Change(Vulnerability(Assessment(Synthesis(for(Maui,(Lānaʻi,( and(Kaho‘olawe( An(Important(Note(About(this(Document:(This%document%represents%an%initial%evaluation%of%vulnerability% for%anchialine%pools%on%Maui%Nui1%based%on%expert%input%and%existing%information.%Specifically,%the% information%presented%below%comprises%vulnerability%factors%selected%and%scored%by%habitat%experts,2% relevant%references%from%the%literature,%and%peer>review%comments%and%revisions%(see%end%of%document% for%methods%and%defining%terms).%The%aim%of%this%document%is%to%expand%understanding%of%habitat% vulnerability%to%changing%climate%conditions,%and%to%provide%a%foundation%for%developing%appropriate% adaptation%responses.% ! Habitat)Description) Anchialine&pools&are&landlocked&pools&found&on&&or&lava&flows.&They&are&characterized& by&subsurface&hydrological&connectivity,&but&lacking&surface&connection&to&the&&(Pacific& &Joint&Venture&Hawai‘i&2006;&The&Nature&Conservancy&2012).&Pools&vary&in&salinity,& dissolved&oxygen&levels,&and&water&level&depending&on&distance&to&the&sea,&tidal&fluctuations,& groundwater&input,&and&rainfall&(Pacific&Coast&Joint&Venture&Hawai‘i&2006;&The&Nature& Conservancy&2012).&The&Hawaiian&&have&the&largest&concentration&of&anchialine&pools&in& the&world&(Brock&et&al.&1987).&The&&of&Maui&has&many&anchialine&pools,&while&Kaho‘olawe& has&one&pool&with&very&high&salinity&(Hawai‘i&Department&of&Land&and&Natural&Resources&2015).&& ) Anchialine)Pools) Rank) Confidence) Habitat)Vulnerability) )) Anchialine&pool&habitats&were& Sensitivity& High& High& evaluated&to&have&moderate\ Future&Exposure& High& Moderate& high&vulnerability&to&climate& Adaptive&Capacity& Low\Moderate& Moderate& change&due&to&high&sensitivity& to&climate&and&non\climate& Vulnerability) Moderate

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 1& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! ! withdrawal.&Additionally,&anchialine&pools&are&sensitive&to&sea&level&rise,&which&may&increase& pool&vulnerability&to&invasive&species,&as&&as&pool&distribution,&particularly&if&development& blocks&landward&migration.&Anchialine&pool&shrimp&are&also&sensitive&to&pollutants&and&water& temperature.&& & The&adaptive&capacity&of&anchialine&pools&may&be&bolstered&by&subsurface&connectivity,& protection&through&natural&area&reserves,&and&knowledge&gained&through&successful&restoration& efforts&on&other&islands.&However,&anchialine&pools&are&less&valued&by&the&public&than&other& aquatic&systems,&and&face&competing&interests&with&development&and&upstream&water&uses.& Additionally,&a&lack&of&knowledge&about&individual&pool&aquatic&assemblages&and&hydrodynamics& make&it&difficult&to&know&how&each&pool&will&respond&to&or&recover&from&changes.&& &

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 2& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

Sensitivity)and)Exposure) Climatic)Factors)and)Disturbance)Regimes) Changes&in&precipitation&amount&and&timing,&storm&surge,&and&saltwater&intrusion&affect& anchialine&pool&salinity&and&depth,&although&it&is&unknown&how&salinity&changes&may&affect& unique&anchialine&pool&ecological&communities&(Table&1).&Shifts&in&large\scale&patterns&of& atmospheric&circulation&will&likely&affect&Hawaiian&anchialine&pools&by&influencing&precipitation;& however,&the&impact&of&these&changes&are&uncertain,&especially&because&water&management& influences&groundwater&contributions&to&pool&systems&(Bassiouni&&&Oki&2013).&Temperature& increases&may&stress&pool&biota.&Sea&level&rise&may&cause&shifts&in&pool&distribution,&and& combined&with&storm&surge,&may&increase&surface&connectivity&between&pools,&increasing&the& likelihood&of&invasive&species&establishment.&& & &

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 3& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

Table&1.&&and&projected&future&trends&in&climatic&factors&and&disturbance®imes,&as&well&as&their&potential&impacts&on&anchialine&pool& habitats.&This&habitat&is&sensitive&to&the&climatic&factors&and&disturbance®imes&listed&below,&and&will&likely&be&exposed&to&projected&future& changes&in&them.&Factors&presented&are&those&ranked&as&having&a&moderate&or&higher&impact&on&the&habitat;&additional&factors&that&may& influence&the&habitat&to&a&lesser°ree&include&soil&moisture.&

Climatic&factors&and&disturbance®imes&&&&&&&&&&High&impact&(high&confidence)& Precipitation+ Historical*and*current*trends* Potential*impacts*on*habitat* (amount+&+ •! Since&1920,&precipitation&has&decreased&across&the&Hawaiian& •! Reduced&rainfall&may&restrict&pool&distribution&and& timing)+ Islands,&with&the&strongest&drying&trends&occurring&over&the&last& water&level&by&reducing&groundwater&recharge&and& 30&years&(Frazier&et&al.&2016;&Frazier&&&Giambelluca&2017)& direct&runoff&(Pacific&Coast&Joint&Venture&Hawai‘i& •! From&1920&to&2012,&dry&season&(May–Oct.)&precipitation& 2006);&studies&on&Hawai’i&have&found&pool&size&to& declined&1%&to&5%&per&decade&for&most&areas&on&Maui&and& affect&community&composition&(Sakihara&2012)& Lāna‘i,&particularly&in&leeward&areas;&Kaho‘olawe&experienced& •! Reduced&rainfall&may&alter&pool&community& more&modest&drying&of&up&to&1.2%&per&decade&(Frazier&&& structure&by&increasing&salinity;&exact&impacts&are& Giambelluca&2017)& unknown&(Marrack&2014),&but&salinity&does& •! From&1920–2012,&Maui&experienced&the&largest&wet_season& influence&anchialine&pool&shrimp&distribution& (Nov.–April)&precipitation&declines&of&any&island&in&the&state,& (Sakihara&2012)&and&larval&survivorship&(Havird&et&al.& decreasing&27.6&mm&per&decade,&which&ranged&from&2%&to&5%& 2015)& per&decade&in&East&Maui&(Frazier&&&Giambelluca&2017)& •! The&frequency&of&trade&wind&inversion&(TWI)&occurrence& increased&an&average&of&20%&since&1990,&resulting&in&a&31%& reduction&in&wet&season&rainfall&and&a&16%&reduction&in&dry_ season&rainfall&at&nine&high_elevation&sites&on&Maui&(over&1,900& m&[6,234&ft];&Longman&et&al.&2015)& & Projected*future*trends* Precipitation&projections&are&highly&uncertain&because&they&vary&in& projected&direction&and&magnitude,&and&will&be&affected&by&shifts&in& the&El&Niño_Southern&Oscillation&(ENSO)&and&Pacific&Decadal& Oscillation&(PDO),&as&well&as&the&amount&of&future&greenhouse&gas& emissions.&Possible&future&scenarios&include:+ •! Little&to&no&change&in&average&precipitation&by&2100&(Keener&et&

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 4& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

al.&2012)& •! Significant&decreases&in&precipitation&across&all&seasons&by&2100,& particularly&in&leeward&areas&(30%&to&80%&decrease&in&wet_ season&leeward&precipitation&and&_20%&to&+20%&change&in&wet_ season&windward&precipitation;&10%&to&90%&decrease&in&dry_ season&precipitation;&Elison&Timm&et&al.&2015)& •! By&2100,&increased&rainfall&on&windward&slopes&of&Maui&(up&to& 30%&in&the&dry&season),&and&decreased&rainfall&on&Lānaʻi&and& leeward&slopes&of&Maui&in&both&seasons&(Zhang&et&al.&2016)& Water+ Historical*and*current*trends* Potential*impacts*on*habitat* temperature+ •! No&anchialine&pool&temperature&trends&are&available& •! Two&species&of&anchialine&pool&shrimp&(Halocaridina+ & rubra&and&Metabetaeus+lohena)&appear&tolerant&of& Projected*future*trends* variable&and&high&water&temperatures&(Vaught&et&al.& •! No&anchialine&pool&temperature&projections&are&available& 2014;&Marrack&et&al.&2015);&for&example,&they&are& & often&found&in&water&temperatures&above&20°C& (68°F;&Hawai‘i&Department&of&Land&and&Natural& Resources&2015)&and&have&been&recorded&in&areas& with&water&temperatures&up&to&35°C&(95°F;&Chan&&& Fujii&1986)& •! Other&species&of&anchialine&pool&shrimp&appear&to& be&less&tolerant&of&high&water&temperatures&(Vuln.& Assessment&Reviewers,&pers.&comm.,&2017)& •! Chromatophores&influence&‘ōpae‘ula&(H.+rubra)& color,&and&have&been&found&to&exhibit&changes&in& response&to&high&temperatures&(32°C/89.6°F;& Vaught&et&al.&2014)& Tropical+ Historical*and*current*trends* Potential*impacts*on*habitat* storms/+ •! Tropical&storm&frequency&was&particularly&high&from&1982–1995,& •! Storm&surge&can&introduce&marine&fauna&to&pools& hurricanes+ but&then&decreased&slightly&from&1995–2000&(Chu&2002)& (Brock&&&Bailey_Brock&1998)& •! Overall,&tropical&storm&frequency&increased&slightly&since&1966– •! Extreme&wave&events&may&temporarily&increase& 1981&(Chu&2002)& pool&salinity&and&sedimentation,&but&groundwater& ! typically&flushes&the&system&(Marrack&2014)&

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 5& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

Projected*future*trends* Tropical&storm&projections&are&highly&uncertain&because&they&are& influenced&by&large_scale&patterns&within&the&ocean&and&atmosphere& (Murakami&et&al.&2013).&Possible&future&scenarios&include:& •! Increased&frequency&and&strength&of&tropical&storm&activity& around&the&Hawaiian&Islands&due&to&a&northwest&shift&in&storm& track&and&increased&strength&because&of&large_scale&changes&in& environmental&conditions&(Murakami&et&al.&2013)& Sea+level+rise+ Historical*and*current*trends* Potential*impacts*on*habitat* &+saltwater+ •! At&Kahului&station,&sea&levels&rose&an&average&of&2.1&mm/year& •! Sea&level&rise&may&expand&pool&size&via&increased& intrusion+ (0.08&in)&from&1947–2016&(equivalent&to&a&change&of&0.21&m& flooding,&cause&pool&loss&to&inundation,&or&create& [0.69&ft]&in&100&years;&NOAA/National&Ocean&Service&2017)& new&pools&if&the&land&behind&pool&areas&remains& •! No&historical/current&trends&are&available&for&Lāna‘i&and& undeveloped&and&the&substrate&is&appropriate& Kaho‘olawe& (Marrack&&&O’Grady&2014)& •! Saltwater&intrusion&has&increased&in&north&Maui,&due&primarily&to& •! Sea&level&rise&may&increase&surface&connectivity& groundwater&withdrawals&(Gingerich&&&Engott&2012):&& between&invaded&pools,&fishponds,&and&manmade& o! The&freshwater&lens&became&thinner&between&1985&and& resort&water&features,&increasing&the&potential&for& 1999,&as&indicated&by&data&from&the&Waiehu&Deep&Monitor& invasive&fish&introductions&(Marrack&2014,&2016)& Well& •! Saltwater&intrusion&will&likely&increase&subsurface& o! There&was&no&change&in&the&width&of&the&freshwater&lens&in& pool&salinity,&particularly&if&groundwater&levels& west&Maui,&as&indicated&by&data&from&the&Māhinahina&Deep& decline&as&a&result&of&withdrawals&and&reduced& Monitor&Well&& precipitation;&the&consequences&of&increased&salinity& & on&anchialine&pool&species&are&unknown&(Marrack& Projected*future*trends* 2014,&2016),&but&salinity&is&known&to&influence& There&is&high&certainty&that&sea&levels&will&continue&to&rise&at& shrimp&distribution&(Sakihara&2012)&and&larval& increasing&rates,&but&the&magnitude&and&timing&of&change&is&less& survivorship&(Havird&et&al.&2015)& certain.&Possible&future&scenarios&include:+ & •! By&2100,&global&sea&level&will&likely&rise&between&0.3&to&2.5&m& Potential*refugia* (0.98&to&8.2&ft);&relative&sea&level&may&be&higher&in&the&Hawaiian& •! ‘Ahihi_Kina‘u&Natural&Area&Reserve&(Vuln.& Islands&compared&to&global&levels,&ranging&from&0.4&to&3.3&m&(1.3& Assessment&Reviewers,&pers.&comm.,&2017)* to&10.8&ft;&Sweet&et&al.&2017);&no®ional&sea&level&rise& & projections&are&available& •! There&are&no&projections&available&for&saltwater&intrusion,&but&it& Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 6& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

is&likely&to&increase&due&to&sea&level&rise,&drought,&and& groundwater&withdrawals&(Rotzoll&et&al.&2010;&Ferguson&&& Gleeson&2012)& &

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 7& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

Non$Climate,Stressors, Sensitivity&of&the&habitat&to&climate&change&impacts&may&be&highly&influenced&by&the&existence& and&extent&of,&and¤t&exposure&to,&nonLclimate&stressors&(Table&2).&ClimateLdriven&changes& in&pool&characteristics&may&be&exacerbated&by&nonLclimate&stressors.&For&example,&development& may&contribute&to&pool&loss&through&fill&or&by&preventing&landward&migration.&Both& development&and&water&diversions&can&exacerbate&pool&hydrological&shifts&by&affecting& groundwater&flow,&and&pollution&and&poisons&may&create&more&stressful&conditions&for&pool& biota.& & Table,2.&Key&nonLclimate&stressors&that&affect&the&overall&sensitivity&of&anchialine&pool&habitats&to& climate&change.&All&factors&were&ranked&as&having&a&moderate&or&higher&impact&on&the&habitat.&

Non$climate,stressors,,,,,,,,,,,,High&impact&(high&confidence), Residential*&* Potential)impacts)on)habitat) commercial* •! Development&can:& development* o! Eliminate&pools&(Pacific&Coast&Joint&Venture&Hawai‘i&2006;&Hawai‘i&Department& of&Land&and&Natural&Resources&2015)& o! Alter&pool&hydrology&(e.g.,&through&increased&groundwater&withdrawals)&and& geomorphology&(e.g.,&through&fill;&Pacific&Coast&Joint&Venture&Hawai‘i&2006;& Conservation&Council&for&Hawai‘i&2011;&Hawai‘i&Department&of&Land&and&Natural& Resources&2015)& o! Prevent&landward&pool&migration/new&pool&formation&in&response&to&sea&level& rise&(Marrack&2016)& o! Increase&pool&nutrient&and&pollutant&loading&through&groundwater& contamination&(Marrack&et&al.&2015),&which&can&alter&pool&community&structure& and&function,&particularly&in&pools&with&invasive&fish&(Dalton&et&al.&2013)& •! Pattern*of*exposure:&Highly&localized& Water* Potential)impacts)on)habitat) diversions* •! Inland&water&diversions&and&groundwater&withdrawals&may&affect&pool&community& structure&by&increasing&salinity&and&reducing&subsurface&habitat&connectivity& (Marrack&2014)& •! Pattern*of*exposure:&Highly&localized& Pollutions*&* Potential)impacts)on)habitat) poisons* •! ‘Ōpae&(native&shrimps)&are&sensitive&to&pollution&from&human&pool&use&(e.g.,&soaps,& shampoos,&litter)&and&human&and&pet&refuse&(Mitchell&et&al.&2005;&Conservation& Council&for&Hawai‘i&2011)& •! Fertilizers&can&alter&natural&pool&chemical&balance&(Conservation&Council&for&Hawai‘i& 2011)& •! Elevated&nutrient&levels&(e.g.,&nitrogen,&phosphorus)&can&increase&primary&producer& biomass&(particularly&if&shrimp&abundance&is&low&due&to&other&factors)&and&alter&pool& structure&and&function&(Marrack&et&al.&2015&and&citations&therein)& •! Pattern*of*exposure:&Consistent&across&habitat&

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 8& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

Agriculture*&* Potential)impacts)on)habitat) aquaculture* •! Agriculture&likely&contributes&to&elevated&nutrient&and&contaminant&loads&and&water& diversion&issues&(Vuln.&Assessment&Reviewer,&pers.&comm.,&2017)) •! Pattern*of*exposure:&Highly&localized)

& Adaptive,Capacity, Anchialine&pools&are&small&systems,&but&connectivity&between&pools&may&be&high&as&a&result&of& subsurface&flow.&Although&anchialine&pools&are&known&for&their&unique&aquatic&assemblages,& few&pools&have&been&formally&surveyed,&which&leaves&many&unknowns&about&their&diversity&and& ability&to&recover&from&climateL&and&humanLcaused&changes.&However,&pool&restoration&and& creation&efforts&on&other&islands&have&been&successful,&and&can&potentially&be&used&to&inform& similar&efforts&on&Maui.&Anchialine&pools&have&lower&public&value&and&societal&support&for& management&than&other&aquatic&systems,&and&face&competing&interests&with&development&and& other&water&uses&(Table&3).& & Table,3.&Adaptive&capacity&factors&that&influence&the&ability&of&anchialine&pool&habitats&to&adapt&to& projected&future&climate&changes.&Factors&that&receive&a&ranking&of&“High”&enhance&adaptive&capacity&for& this&habitat&(+),&while&factors&that&receive&a&ranking&of&“Low”&undermine&adaptive&capacity&($).&

Adaptive,capacity,factors,,,,,,,,,,,,LowLmoderate&adaptive&capacity&(moderate&confidence), Extent*&*integrity* +,,,,Maui&supports&roughly&50&anchialine&pools;&&Hanamanioa&supports& & high&integrity&pool&habitat&(Pacific&Coast&Joint&Venture&Hawai‘i&2006)& LowLmoderate&& (high&confidence)& $,,,,,Anchialine&pools&are&typically&small,&ranging&from&15&acres&to&the&size&of&a& bathtub&(Conservation&Council&for&Hawai‘i&2011;&Yamamoto&et&al.&2015)& Habitat*isolation* +,,,,Genetic&and&distribution&studies&of&anchialine&pool&‘ōpae&and&mollusks& * indicate&relatively&high&subsurface&connectivity&between&pools&(Russ&et&al.& Moderate& (low&confidence)& 2010;&Marrack&2016)& * +/$,Anchialine&pools&lack&surface&connectivity,&but&can&exist&as&isolated&pools& and/or&groups&depending&on&subsurface&flow&(Pacific&Coast&Joint&Venture& Hawai‘i&2006)&& Resistance*&*recovery* +/$,Anchialine&pool&recovery&is&variable&(Vuln.&Assessment&Workshop,&pers.& & comm.,&2016) LowLmoderate& & (moderate&confidence)& $,,,,,Some&humanLdriven&ecological&changes&that&impact&Maui&anchialine& pools&may&be&irreversible&(Hawai‘i&Department&of&Land&and&Natural& Resources&2015)& Habitat*diversity* +,,,,Maui&anchialine&pools&support&several&‘ōpae&(shrimp)&species&and& LowLmoderate& endemic&hipods,&as&well&as&occasional&marine&species&(Hawai‘i& (high&confidence)& Department&of&Land&and&Natural&Resources&2015)* & & & & +,,,,Studies&from&Hawaiʻi&Island&indicate&that&ʻōpaeʻula&(H.*rubra)&appear&to&be& somewhat&resilient&to&temperature,&salinity,&and&dissolved&oxygen& changes&(Sakihara&2012;&Havird&et&al.&2014;&Vaught&et&al.&2014;&Marrack&et&

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 9& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

al.&2015),&as&well&as&to&food&web&changes&induced&by&invasive&plant& canopy&cover&(Dudley&et&al.&2017)& +/$,Native&aquatic&fauna&is&highly&endemic,&rare,&and&unique&(Brasher&2003;& Pacific&Coast&Joint&Venture&Hawai‘i&2006)& $,,,,,Diversity&is&naturally&low&in&Hawaiian&aquatic&systems&due&to&isolation&of& the&Hawaiian&&(Brasher&2003)& $,,,,,Relatively&little&is&known&about&aquatic&systems;&greater&knowledge&is& needed&on&topics&such&as&keystone&species&and&individual&species& vulnerability&to&climate&change&(Vuln.&Assessment&Workshop,&pers.& comm.,&2016)& &$,,,,Despite&their&abundance,&few&anchialine&pools&have&been&surveyed& (Hawai‘i&Department&of&Land&and&Natural&Resources&2015)& Management*potential* +&&&&Management&of&anchialine&pools&is&supported&by&the&Division&of&Aquatic& & Resources&(Vuln.&Assessment&Workshop,&pers.&comm.,&2016) LowLmoderate& & (high&confidence)& +&&&&Some&pools&are&protected&by&the&ʻĀhihiLKīnaʻu&Natural&Area&Reserve&(The& Nature&Conservancy&2012), +,,,,On&other&islands,&pool&excavation&restoration&efforts&and&artificial&pool& creation&projects&have&been&successful;&restored/created&pools&support& native&species&(Marrack&2014,&2016)& +,,,,Moderate&likelihood&of&alleviating&climate&change&impacts:&Some&climate& and&human&impacts&can&be&alleviated&by&effecting&positive&change&and& funding&conservation&groups&and&research&(Vuln.&Assessment&Workshop,& pers.&comm.,&2016).&For&example,&managing&water&consumption&and& removing&water&diversions&can&reduce&vulnerability&to&saltwater&intrusion& (Gingerich&2008;&Gingerich&&&Engott&2012;&Ferguson&&&Gleeson&2012)& +,,,,Extreme&events&(e.g.,&tsunami,&pollutant&influx)&would&likely&increase& support&for&aquatic&system&management&(Vuln.&Assessment&Workshop,& pers.&comm.,&2016)& +/$,LowLmoderate&public&value:&Anchialine&pools&are&valued&for&their& rarity/existence,&educational&purposes&(Vuln.&Assessment&Workshop,& pers.&comm.,&2016),&and&their&support&of&other&activities&(e.g.,&supply& ‘ōpae‘ula&used&for&fishing&bait;&Conservation&Council&for&Hawai‘i&2011)& $,,,,,Low&societal&support&for&anchialine&pool&management&and&conservation:& There&is¤tly&a&gap&in&the°ree&to&which&anchialine&pools&are&valued& and&societal&willingness&to&pay&for&habitat&protection,&likely&due&to&a&lack& of&knowledge&about&this&habitat&(Vuln.&Assessment&Workshop,&pers.& comm.,&2016)& $,,,,,Aquatic&systems&face&competing&interests&with&development,&traditional& agriculture,&and&other&offLstream&water&uses&(e.g.,&community&use;&Vuln.& Assessment&Workshop,&pers.&comm.,&2016);&conflicts&are&highest&during& the&dry&season&when&water&is&increasingly&limited,&and&will&likely&increase& if&climate&change&reduces&water&supply&(Bassiouni&&&Oki&2013)& &

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 10& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

, Recommended,Citation, Reynier&WA,&Hilberg&LE,&Kershner&JM,&Gregg&RM.&2018.&Anchialine&Pools:&A&Habitat&Climate& Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&Synthesis&for&Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe.&EcoAdapt,& Bainbridge&Island,&WA.& Produced&in&cooperation&with&the&Pacific&Islands&Climate&Change&Cooperative,&with&funding& from&the&U.S.&Fish&and&Wildlife&Service.& & Literature,Cited, Bassiouni&M,&Oki&DS.&2013.&Trends&and&shifts&in&streamflow&in&Hawai‘i,&1913–2008.&Hydrological& Processes&27:1484–1500.& Brasher&AMD.&2003.&Impacts&of&human&disturbances&on&biotic&communities&in&Hawaiian&streams.& BioScience&53:1052–1060.& Brock&RE,&BaileyLBrock&JH.&1998.&An&unique&anchialine&pool&in&the&Hawaiian&Islands.&International&Review& of&Hydrobiology&83:65–75.& Brock&RE,&Norris&JE,&Ziemann&DA,&Lee&MT.&1987.&Characteristics&of&water&quality&in&anchialine&&of& Kona,&Hawai‘i&Coast.&Pacific&Science&41:200–208.& Chan&JG,&Fujii&R.&1986.&The&biology&of&a&geothermally&heated&brackish&water&pool&at&Pohoiki,&Hawai‘i.& Pages&55–65&in&Smith,&editor.&Proceedings&of&the&Third&Conference&in&Natural&Sciences&Hawai‘i& Volcanoes&National&Park;&1980&June&4L6.&University&of&Hawai‘i&at&Mānoa,&Department&of&Botany,& Hilo,&HI.&Available&from&https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/handle/10125/18372.& Chu&PLS.&2002.&LargeLscale&circulation&features&associated&with&decadal&variations&of&tropical&cyclone& activity&over&the&Central&North&Pacific.&Journal&of&Climate&15:2678–2689.& Conservation&Council&for&Hawai‘i.&2011.&Anchialine&pools:&Windows&to&Hawai‘i’s&underground&labyrinth&L& Loko&‘Ōpae‘Ula:&‘Īpuka&I&Ke&Kaiaola&Malalo&Honua.&Available&from& http://www.conservehi.org/documents/CCH_PosterGuide11.pdf.& Dalton&CM,&MokiaoLLee&A,&Sakihara&TS,&Weber&MG,&Roco&CA,&Han&Z,&Dudley&B,&MacKenzie&RA,&Hairston& NG.&2013.&DensityL&and&traitLmediated&top–down&effects&modify&bottom–up&control&of&a&highly& endemic&tropical&aquatic&food&web.&Oikos&122:790–800.& Dudley&B,&Mackenzie&R,&Sakihara&T,&H&Riney&M,&Ostertag&R.&2017.&Effects&of&invasion&at&two&trophic&levels& on&diet,&body&condition,&and&population&size&structure&of&Hawaiian&red&shrimp.&Ecosphere& 8:e01682.& Elison&Timm&OE,&Giambelluca&TW,&Diaz&HF.&2015.&Statistical&downscaling&of&rainfall&changes&in&Hawai‘i& based&on&the&CMIP5&global&model&projections.&Journal&of&Geophysical&Research:&Atmospheres& 120:2014JD022059.& Ferguson&G,&Gleeson&T.&2012.&Vulnerability&of&coastal&&to&groundwater&use&and&climate&change.& Nature&Climate&Change&2:342–345.& Frazier&AG,&Giambelluca&TW.&2017.&Spatial&trend&analysis&of&Hawaiian&rainfall&from&1920&to&2012.& International&Journal&of&Climatology&37:2522–2531.& Frazier&AG,&Giambelluca&TW,&Diaz&HF,&Needham&HL.&2016.&Comparison&of&geostatistical&approaches&to& spatially&interpolate&monthLyear&rainfall&for&the&Hawaiian&Islands.&International&Journal&of& Climatology&36:1459–1470.& Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 11& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

Gingerich&SB.&2008.&GroundLwater&availability&in&the&Wailuku&area,&Maui,&Hawai‘i.&Scientific& Investigations&Report&2008L5236.&U.S.&Geological&Survey.&Available&from& http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2008/5236/sir2008L5236.pdf.& Gingerich&SB,&Engott&JA.&2012.&Groundwater&availability&in&the&Lahaina&District,&west&Maui,&Hawaiʻi.&Page& 90.&Scientific&Investigations&Report&2012–5010.&U.S.&Geological&Survey.&Available&from& http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2012/5010/.& Havird&JC,&Vaught&RC,&Weeks&JR,&Fujita&Y,&Hidaka&M,&Santos&SR,&Henry&RP.&2014.&Taking&their&breath&away:& Metabolic&responses&to&lowLoxygen&levels&in&anchialine&shrimps&(Crustacea:&Atyidae&and& Alpheidae).&Comparative&Biochemistry&and&Physiology&Part&A:&Molecular&&&Integrative& Physiology&178:109–120.& Havird&JC,&Vaught&RC,&Weese&DA,&Santos&SR.&2015.&Reproduction&and&development&in&Halocaridina*rubra& Holthuis,&1963&(Crustacea:&Atyidae)&clarifies&larval&ecology&in&the&Hawaiian&anchialine&.& The&Biological&Bulletin&229:134–142.& Hawai‘i&Department&of&Land&and&Natural&Resources.&2015.&Hawai‘i’s&State&Wildlife&Action&Plan&(SWAP).& Prepared&by&H.&T.&Harvey&and&Associates,&Honolulu,&HI.&Available&from& http://www.state.hi.us/dlnr/dofaw/swap/&(accessed&November&2,&2016).& Keener&VW,&Marra&JJ,&Finucane&ML,&Spooner&D,&Smith&MH.&2012.&Climate&change&and&Pacific&Islands:& Indicators&and&impacts.&Report&for&the&2012&Pacific&Islands&Regional&Climate&Assessment&(PIRCA).& Island&Press,&Washington,&D.C.& Longman&RJ,&Diaz&HF,&Giambelluca&TW.&2015.&Sustained&increases&in&lowerLtropospheric&subsidence&over& the¢ral&tropical&North&Pacific&drive&a&decline&in&highLelevation&rainfall&in&Hawai‘i.&Journal&of& Climate&28:8743–8759.& Marrack&L.&2014.&Incorporating&groundwater&levels&into&seaLlevel&detection&models&for&Hawaiian& anchialine&pool&.&Journal&of&Coastal&Research:1170–1182.& Marrack&L.&2016.&Modeling&potential&shifts&in&Hawaiian&anchialine&pool&habitat&and&introduced&fish& distribution&due&to&sea&level&rise.&&and&&39:781–797.& Marrack&L,&Beavers&S,&O’Grady&P.&2015.&The&relative&importance&of&introduced&fishes,&habitat& characteristics,&and&land&use&for&endemic&shrimp&occurrence&in&brackish&anchialine&pool& ecosystems.&Hydrobiologia&758:107–122.& Marrack&L,&O’Grady&P.&2014.&Predicting&impacts&of&sea&level&rise&for&cultural&and&natural&resources&in&five& national&park&units&on&the&island&of&Hawai‘i.&Pacific&Cooperative&Studies&Unit,&University&of& Hawai‘i&at&Mānoa.&Available&from&http://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/handle/10125/34111& (accessed&June&15,&2016).& Mitchell&C,&Ogura&C,&Meadows&DW,&Kane&A,&Strommer&L,&Fretz&S,&Leonard&D,&McClung&A.&2005.&Hawai‘i’s& comprehensive&wildlife&conservation&strategy.&Hawai‘i&Department&of&Land&and&Natural& Resources,&Honolulu,&HI.& Murakami&H,&Wang&B,&Li&T,&Kitoh&A.&2013.&Projected&increase&in&tropical&cyclones&near&Hawai‘i.&Nature& Climate&Change&3:749–754.& NOAA/National&Ocean&Service.&2017.&NOAA&&and&Currents:&Sea&Level&Trends.&Available&from& http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html&(accessed&July&13,&2017).& Pacific&Coast&Joint&Venture&Hawai‘i.&2006.&Strategic&plan&for&wetland&conservation&in&Hawai‘i.&Ducks& Unlimited.&Available&from&http://www.pacificbirds.org/wpL content/uploads/2014/12/HWJVStrategicPlanL3.pdf.& Rotzoll&K,&Oki&DS,&ElLKadi&AI.&2010.&Changes&of&freshwaterLlens&thickness&in&basaltic&island&aquifers& overlain&by&thick&coastal&sediments.&Hydrogeology&Journal&18:1425–1436.& Russ&A,&Santos&SR,&Muir&C.&2010.&Genetic&population&structure&of&an&anchialine&shrimp,&Metabetaeus* lohena&(Crustacea:&Alpheidae),&in&the&Hawaiian&Islands.&Revista&de&Biología&Tropical&58:159–170.&

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 12& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

Sakihara&TS.&2012.&A&diel&comparison&of&the&unique&faunal&assemblage&in&remote&anchialine&pools&on& Hawai‘i&Island.&Pacific&Science&66:83–95.& Sweet&WV,&Kopp&RE,&Weaver&CP,&Obeysekera&J,&Horton&RM,&Thieler&ER,&Zervas&C.&2017.&Global&and& regional&sea&level&rise&scenarios&for&the&United&States.&NOAA&Technical&Report&NOS&COLOPS&083.& National&Oceanic&and&Atmospheric&Administration,&Silver&,&MD.& The&Nature&Conservancy.&2012.&Hawaiian&Anchialine&Pools.&Available&from& http://www.hawaiiecoregionplan.info/anchpoolNC.html&(accessed&November&2,&2016).& Vaught&RC,&Havird&JC,&Santos&SR.&2014.&Genetic&lineage&and&environmental&conditions&as&drivers&of& chromatosome&variation&in&the&anchialine&shrimp&Halocaridina*rubra&Holthuis,&1963&(Caridea:& Atyidae).&Journal&of&Crustacean&Biology&34:647–657.& Yamamoto&MN,&Iwai,&Jr.&TY,&Tagawa&AW.&2015.&Hawaiian&anchialine&pools:&Windows&to&a&hidden&world.& Mutual&Publishing&Company.& Zhang&C,&Wang&Y,&Hamilton&K,&Lauer&A.&2016.&Dynamical&downscaling&of&the&climate&for&the&Hawaiian& Islands.&Part&II:&Projection&for&the&late&twentyLfirst¢ury.&Journal&of&Climate&29:8333–8354.& & & &

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 13& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

Hawaiian,Islands,Climate,Synthesis,Project:, Vulnerability,Assessment,Methods,and,Application, Defining,Terms, Exposure:&A&measure&of&how&much&of&a&change&in&climate&or&climateLdriven&factors&a&resource&is& likely&to&experience&(Glick&et&al.&2011)., Sensitivity:&A&measure&of&whether&and&how&a&resource&is&likely&to&be&affected&by&a&given&change& in&climate&or&factors&driven&by&climate&(Glick&et&al.&2011)., Adaptive,Capacity:&The&ability&of&a&resource&to&accommodate&or&cope&with&climate&change& impacts&with&minimal&disruption&(Glick&et&al.&2011)., Vulnerability:&A&function&of&the&sensitivity&of&a&particular&resource&to&climate&changes,&its& exposure&to&those&changes,&and&its&capacity&to&adapt&to&those&changes&(IPCC&2007).&& Vulnerability,Assessment,Model, The&vulnerability&assessment&model&applied&in&this&process&was&developed&by&EcoAdapt3&(Hutto& et&al.&2015,&EcoAdapt&2014a,&EcoAdapt&2014b,&Kershner&2014),&and&includes&evaluations&of& relative&vulnerability&by&local&stakeholders&who&have&detailed&knowledge&about&and/or& expertise&in&the&ecology,&management,&and&threats&to&focal&habitats&and&ecosystem&services.& Stakeholders&evaluated&vulnerability&of&each&resource&by&discussing&and&answering&a&series&of& questions&for&sensitivity&and&adaptive&capacity.&Habitat&exposure&was&evaluated&by&EcoAdapt& using&future&climate&projections&from&the&scientific&literature;&ecosystem&service&exposure&was& evaluated&by&workshop&participants&using&the&climate&impacts&table&provided&by&EcoAdapt.&Each& vulnerability&component&(i.e.&sensitivity,&adaptive&capacity,&and&exposure)&was÷d&into& specific&elements.&For&example,&habitats&included&three&elements&for&assessing&sensitivity&and& five&elements&for&adaptive&capacity.&Elements&for&each&vulnerability&component&are&described&in& more&detail&below.&! & Stakeholders&assigned&one&of&five&rankings&(High,&ModerateLhigh,&Moderate,&LowLmoderate,&or& Low)&for&sensitivity&and&adaptive&capacity.&StakeholderLassigned&rankings&for&each&component& were&then&converted&into&scores&(HighL5,&ModerateLhighL4,&ModerateL3,&LowLmoderateL2,&or& LowL1)&and&the&scores&averaged&(mean)&to&generate&an&overall&score.&For&example,&scores&for& each&element&of&habitat&sensitivity&were&averaged&to&generate&an&overall&habitat&sensitivity& score.&Scores&for&exposure&were&weighted&less&than&scores&for&sensitivity&and&adaptive&capacity;& this&was&due&to&greater&uncertainty&about&the&magnitude&and&rate&of&future&change.&Sensitivity,& adaptive&capacity,&and&exposure&scores&were&combined&into&an&overall&vulnerability&score& calculated&as:& & & Vulnerability,=,[(Climate,Exposure*0.5),x,Sensitivity],$,Adaptive,Capacity, & !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 3&Sensitivity&and&adaptive&capacity&elements&were&informed&by&Glick&et&al.&2011,&Manomet&Center&for&Conservation& Sciences&2013,&and&Lawler&2010.& Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 14& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

Elements&for&each&component&of&vulnerability&were&also&assigned&one&of&three&confidence& rankings&(High,&Moderate,&or&Low).&Confidence&rankings&were&converted&into&scores&(HighL3,& ModerateL2,&or&LowL1)&and&the&scores&averaged&(mean)&to&generate&an&overall&confidence& score.&These&approximate&confidence&levels&were&based&on&the&Manomet&Center&for& Conservation&Sciences&(2013)&3Lcategory&scale,&which&collapsed&the&5Lcategory&scale&developed& by&Moss&and&Schneider&(2000)&for&the&IPCC&Third&Assessment&Report.&The&vulnerability& assessment&model&applied&here&assesses&the&confidence&associated&with&individual&element& rankings,&and&uses&these&rankings&to&estimate&the&overall&level&of&confidence&for&each& component&of&vulnerability&as&well&as&overall&vulnerability.& & Rankings&and&scores&presented&should&be&considered&measures&of&relative&vulnerability&and& confidence&(i.e.&comparing&the&level&of&vulnerability&between&the&focal&resources&evaluated&in& this&project).& & Vulnerability&and&confidence&rankings&and&scores&for&a&given&element&were&supplemented&with& information&from&the&scientific&literature.&The&final&vulnerability&assessment&summaries&for&a& given&resource&include&stakeholderLassigned&rankings,&confidence&evaluations,&and&narratives& summarizing&expert&opinions&and&information&from&the&scientific&literature.&& Habitat,&,Ecosystem,Service,Elements, Sensitivity*&*Exposure*(Applies*to*Habitats*and*Ecosystem*Services)* 1.,Climate,and,Climate$Driven,Factors:,e.g.,&air&temperature,&precipitation,&freshwater& temperature,&sea&surface&temperature,&sea&level&rise,&soil&moisture,&altered&streamflows,&etc.& 2.,Disturbance,Regimes:,e.g.,&wildfire,&flooding,&drought,&insect&and&disease&outbreaks,&wind,& etc.&& 3.,Future,Climate,Exposure:,e.g.,&consideration&of&projected&future&climate&changes&(e.g.,& temperature&and&precipitation)&as&well&as&climateLdriven&changes&(e.g.,&altered&fire®imes,& altered&flow®imes,&shifts&in&vegetation&types).&Experts&were&provided&with&a&summary&of& historical,¤t,&and&projected&future&climate&changes&for&the&main&Hawaiian&Islands. 4.,Non$Climate,Stressors:,e.g.,&landLuse&conversion&(e.g.,&residential&or&commercial& development),&agriculture&and/or&aquaculture,&transportation&corridors&(e.g.,&roads,&railroads,& trails),&water&diversions,&invasive&and&other&problematic&species,&pollution&and&poisons,&etc.&For& nonLclimate&stressors,&experts&were&asked&to&evaluate&sensitivity,&whether&the&habitat&or& ecosystem&service&is¤tly&exposed&to&that&stressor,&and&whether&the&pattern&of&exposure&is& widespread&and/or&consistent&across&the&study&area&or&is&highly&localized&(e.g.,&exposure&to& aquaculture&is&highly&localized&but&exposure&to&invasive&grasses&is&often&widespread).& Adaptive*Capacity*(Habitats)* 1.,Extent,and,Integrity:,e.g.,&habitats&that&occur&in&multiple&locations&vs.&single,&small&areas;& high&integrity&vs.°raded&habitats&& 2.,Habitat,Isolation:,e.g.,&adjacent&to&other&native&habitat&types&vs.&isolated&habitats,&barriers&to& dispersal&(e.g.,&development,&energy&productions,&roads,&water&diversions,&etc.)&,

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 15& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018! !

3.,Resistance,and,Recovery:,e.g.,&resistance&refers&to&the&stasis&of&a&habitat&in&the&face&of& change,&recovery&refers&to&the&ability&to&“bounce&back”&more&quickly&from&stressors&once&they& do&occur&, 4.,Habitat,Diversity:,e.g.,&diversity&of&component&native&species&and&functional&groups&in&the& habitat&& 5.,Management,Potential:,e.g.,&ability&of&resource&managers&to&alter&the&adaptive&capacity&and& resilience&of&a&habitat&to&climatic&and&nonLclimate&stressors&(societal&value&of&habitats,&ability&to& alleviate&impacts)& Adaptive*Capacity*(Ecosystem*Services)* 1.,Intrinsic,Value,and,Management,Potential:,e.g.,&ability&of&managers&to&alter&the&adaptive& capacity&and&resilience&of&a&service&to&climatic&and&nonLclimate&stressors&(societal&value&of& ecosystem&services,&ability&to&alleviate&impacts)& , Literature,Cited, EcoAdapt.&2014a.&A&climate&change&vulnerability&assessment&for&aquatic&resources&in&the&Tongass& National&Forest.&EcoAdapt,&Bainbridge&Island,&WA.& EcoAdapt.&2014b.&A&climate&change&vulnerability&assessment&for&resources&of&Nez&PerceLClearwater& National&Forests.&Version&3.0.&EcoAdapt,&Bainbridge&Island,&WA.& Glick&P,&Stein&BA,&Edelson&NA.&2011.&Scanning&the&conservation&horizon:&A&guide&to&climate&change& vulnerability&assessment.&National&Wildlife&Federation,&Washington,&D.C.& Hutto&SV,&Higgason&KD,&Kershner&JM,&Reynier&WA,&Gregg&DS.&2015.&Climate&change&vulnerability& assessment&for&the&northLcentral&California&coast&and&ocean.&Page&473.&ONMSL15L02,&Marine& Sanctuaries&Conservation&Series.&U.S.&Department&of&Commerce,&National&Oceanic&and& Atmospheric&Administration,&Office&of&National&Marine&Sanctuaries,&Silver&Spring,&MD.& Intergovernmental&Panel&on&Climate&Change&(IPCC).&2014.&Climate&Change&2007:&Impacts,&Adaptation& and&Vulnerability.&Contribution&of&Working&Group&II&to&the&Fourth&Assessment&Report&of&the& Intergovernmental&Panel&on&Climate&Change.&Cambridge&University&Press,&Cambridge,&UK.& Kershner&JM,&editor.&2014.&A&climate&change&vulnerability&assessment&for&focal&resources&of&the&Sierra& Nevada.&Version&1.0.&EcoAdapt,&Bainbridge&Island,&WA.& Lawler&J.&2010.&Pacific&Northwest&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment.&Available&from& http://climatechangesensitivity.org/.& Manomet&Center&for&Conservation&Science,&National&Wildlife&Federation.&2013.&The&vulnerabilities&of&fish& and&wildlife&habitats&in&the&Northeast&to&climate&change.&A&report&to&the&Northeastern& Association&of&Fish&and&Wildlife&Agencies&and&the&North&Atlantic&Landscape&Conservation& Cooperative.&Manomet&Center&for&Conservation&Sciences,&Plymouth,&MA.& Moss&R,&Schneider&S.&2000.&Towards&consistent&assessment&and&reporting&of&uncertainties&in&the&IPCC& TAR.&In&R.&Pachauri&and&T.&Taniguchi,&editors.&CrossLcutting&issues&in&the&IPCC&Third&Assessment& Report.&Global&Industrial&and&Social&Progress&Research&Institute&(for&IPCC),&Tokyo.& & & & !

Maui,&Lānaʻi,&and&Kaho‘olawe&Climate&Change&Vulnerability&Assessment&& 16& for&the&Hawaiian&Islands&Climate&Synthesis&Project&& Copyright&EcoAdapt&2018!