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Altman's Z-Score in the Airline Business. Case Study of Major U.S. Carriers. Are They Potential Bankruptcy Candidates?

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Altman's Z-Score in the Airline Business. Case Study of Major U.S. Carriers. Are They Potential Bankruptcy Candidates? ISSN: 2278-3369 International Journal of Advances in Management and Economics Available online at www.managementjournal.info Case Study Altman’s Z-Score in the Airline Business. Case Study of Major U.S. Carriers. Are they Potential Bankruptcy Candidates? Stepanyan A* Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, West University of Timisoara, Str. J. H. Pestalozzi, nr. Timisoara, Romania. *For corresponding Author: Email: [email protected] Abstract Over the last decade the U.S airline industry has experienced considerable shifts in operations conditioned by economic downturns both early in 2000s and from late 2007 until mid-2009 and historically high fuel prices which caused U.S air carriers to incur significant financial losses. These adverse developments in the airline industry during the last decade have even resulted in bankruptcy filings by several U.S biggest carriers, followed by mergers and acquisitions among them to become financially stronger and better cope with challenges created by changes in the economic environment. Therefore, the research paper places an emphasis on the analysis of possible bankruptcy for seven largest U.S airlines using Altman’s bankruptcy prediction model (Z-score) for six consecutive years (2007- 2012) based on the selected carriers’ 10-k annual SEC filings. The results of the research showed that seven U.S largest carriers remain potential bankruptcy candidates despite all the recent improvements in the airline industry. Keywords: Airline business, Bankruptcy, Financial ratio, Earnings, Fuel prices, Economic downturn Introduction The airline business is extremely susceptible to tend to merge with others to become financially changes in the economic environment and market stronger and better cope with challenges created fluctuations. Therefore, the airline industry is in the airline business. Therefore, in recent years characterized by unsteadiness being subject to airline mergers and acquisitions have become many challenges including the high volatility in more frequent in the U.S airline industry and jet fuel prices and increasing labor costs. It is also occurred between American Airlines and Trans characterized by susceptibility to events such as World (TWA) in 2001, US Airways and American terrorist attacks, poor weather and natural West in 2005, Delta Air Lines and Northwest disasters, as well as by seasonality [7]. Over the Airlines in 2008, Southwest Airlines and AirTran last decade the U.S airline industry has been in 2011, United Air Lines and Continental significantly battered by a few events including Airlines in 2010, AMR Corporation and U.S terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, Airways Group in 2013 [10]. 2001, economic recessions that U.S economy went into from March to November 2001 and from The above listed filings for bankruptcy protection December 2007 to June 2009, and volatile and under Chapter 11 have produced an interest to incremental jet fuel prices that have adversely analyze the likelihood of major U.S airlines’ affected financial conditions of major U.S carriers potential filings for bankruptcy in the nearest [8]. As a result, the last decade saw several filings future using Altman’s Z-score as a bankruptcy for bankruptcy protection and mergers in the U.S prediction model. airline business. The most noteworthy filings for bankruptcy protection in the U.S airline industry This paper thus discusses the Altman Z-score as a that took place in the last decade include those of model used to foresee a possible bankruptcy and Trans World Airlines in 2001 which was acquired its applicability to determine whether U.S major by American Airlines, U.S Airways both in 2002 airlines are considered as potential bankruptcy and 2004, United Airlines in 2002 Northwest candidates. The calculation and analysis of Airlines and Delta Air Lines in 2005 and finally, Altman’s Z-score is conducted for seven U.S the filing of American Airlines in late 2011 for the carriers including Delta Air Lines, United first time in the airline’s history [9]. Interestingly, Continental Holdings (United Air Lines), U.S when faced by financial difficulties many airlines Airways Group, AMR Corporation (American Stepanyan A |Jan.-Feb. 2014 | Vol.3 | Issue 1|16-24 16 Available online at www.managementjournal.info Airlines), Southwest Airlines, JetBlue Airways bankruptcy using the ratio of net income plus and Alaska Airlines, over the six-year period. depreciation and amortization to total liabilities Furthermore, the paper briefly addresses the U.S was 87% one year prior to filing for bankruptcy airline industry on the whole and its recent and 78% five years prior to the filing. The Type I developments. error rate (a firm is classified as nonbankrupt but eventually files for bankruptcy) was 22 % one Literature Review year prior to bankruptcy and 42% five years prior Studies of bankruptcy based on the empirical to bankruptcy whereas the Type II error rate (a evidence aim to identify financial characteristics firm is classified as bankrupt but does not go of those companies that are likely to file for bankrupt) was 5% one year prior to bankruptcy bankruptcy and distinguish them from those that and 4% five years prior to bankruptcy [3]. are not. The goal of developing such bankruptcy prediction models is to foresee which companies Since the univariate model considers financial will possibly file for bankruptcy a few years prior ratios individually and examines the relation of to the actual filing. The models that predict each to bankruptcy, it does not assess bankruptcy bankruptcy have been developed based on risk using set of financial ratios as opposed to the financial ratios derived from companies’ financial multivariate analysis that combines several statements [1]. One of the early studies of financial ratios to predict possible bankruptcy [1]. bankruptcy prediction was conducted in 1932 by Therefore, the researchers turned towards using Paul J. Fitzp Patrick (1932) who published his bankruptcy prediction models based on Multiple paper on bankruptcy titled Fitz Patrick 1932 in Discriminant Analysis that involves choosing a which he examined 20 matched pairs of firms, one sample of bankrupt companies and matching bankrupt and one non-bankrupt and interpreted them with non-bankrupt ones that approximate in financial ratios indicative of bankruptcy. The data size and operate in the same industry. presented included 13 accounting ratios computed Afterwards, Multiple Discriminant Analysis for 40 companies for the period of three years [2]. identifies set of financial ratios that best differentiate between the two groups and uses In the mid-1960s two types of models were them to predict bankruptcy. The result of the developed. The early attempts to do research on analysis is a score obtained by summing the bankruptcy were based on the univariate model values of each financial ratio weighted by which analyzes the relation between a certain coefficients [1]. Possibly one of the best-known financial ratio and bankruptcy [3]. One of the researches in the field of bankruptcy prediction well-known researchers on bankruptcy using a based on Multiple Discriminant Analysis has been univariate model was William Beaver (1966) who done by Edward Altman in 1968 who generated a examined 29 financial statement ratios over the Z-score that explains potential bankruptcy for five-year period prior to bankruptcy based on the publically traded manufacturing companies [4]. sample of 79 bankrupt and 79 non-bankrupt Moreover, Mcgurr (1996) and Rance (1999) companies and attempted to identify financial applied their multiple discriminant analysis to ratios that had a discriminating power between retail firms. Nevertheless, most of the bankruptcy those two groups and ascertain the years prior to prediction models have been built for large bankruptcy during which those ratios begin to publically traded companies due to the differ. Beaver (1966) identified the best availability of all necessary information and use a discriminating six financial ratios including 1) net pair-matched sample. income plus depreciation and amortization / total liabilities, 2) Net income/total assets, 3) total Apart from Univariate and Multiple Discriminant debt/total assets, 4) Net working capital /total Analysis, there are three other types of assets, 5) current assets/ current liabilities, and 6) bankruptcy prediction models including Logit & cash, short-term investments, accounts Probit Analysis, Recursive Partitioning Algorithm receivable/ operating expenses excluding and Neural Networks. James A. Olson (1980) depreciation and amortization. used logit regression for a large sample of firms without pair-matching [6]. These ratios listed above analyze profitability, Methodology long-term solvency risk and short-term liquidity risk. Of those six financial ratios the ratio of net This research paper places an emphasis on the income plus depreciation and amortization to analysis of major U.S air carriers’ potential total liabilities best predicts the potential bankruptcy using Altman’s multiple discriminant bankruptcy in Beaver’s analysis. According to model with a result of a Z-score for six consecutive Beaver’s study, the accuracy of predicting years. Five financial ratios which are the inputs Stepanyan A |Jan.-Feb. 2014 | Vol.3 | Issue 1|16-24 17 Available online at www.managementjournal.info in Altman’s bankruptcy prediction model have represents the relation between market value of been calculated based on the leading U.S airlines’
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