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FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW No FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW No. 27, September 2016 FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW FINANCIAL STABILITY No. 27, September 2016 Mitigating Systemic Risk and Strengthening Intermediation to Maintain Financial System Stability MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY DEPARTMENT FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW No. 27, September 2016 Director Publisher : Erwin Rijanto Filianingsih Hendarta Yati Kurniati Dwityapoetra S. Besar Bank Indonesia Jl. MH Thamrin No.2, Jakarta Coordinator and Editor Indonesia Retno Ponco Windarti – Yanti Setiawan – Rozidyanti - Herriman Budi Subangun – Reska Prasetya – Minar Iwan Setiawan The preparation of the Financial Stability Review is one of the avenues through Drafting Team which Bank Indoensia achieves its mission ”to safeguard the stability of the Indonesian Rupiah by M. Firdaus Muttaqin, Kurniawan Agung, Ita Rulina, Indra Gunawan, Arlyana Abubakar, Ndari Suryaningsih, Cicilia maintaining monetary and financial system stability for sustainable national economic development”. A. Harun, Khairani Syafitri, Risa Fadila, Lisa Rienellda, Bayu Adi Gunawan, Heny Sulistyaningsih, Hero Wonida, Sigit Setiawan, Ardhi Santoso H.M., Arifatul Khorida, Justina Adamanti, Maulana Harris Muhajir, Zulfia Fathma, FSR is published biannually with the objectives : Sagita Rachmanira, Afaf Munawwarah, Arisyi Fariza Raz, Anindhita Kemala D., Apsari Anindita N.P, Dhanita • To improve public insight in terms of understanding financial system stability Fauziah Ulfa, Rieska Indah Astuti, Teguh Arifyanto, Amalia Insan Kamil, Randy Cavendish, Harris Dwi Putra, • To evaluate protential risks to financial system stability Pita Pratita, Syachman Perdymer, Rio Khasananda, Illinia Ayudhia Riyadi, Widyastuti Noviandri, Rifki Ismail, • To analyze the developments of and issues within the financial system Yono Haryono, Diana Yumanita, Jhordy K. Nazar, Fadhil, Kartina Eka Darmawanti, Meliana Rizka, Fiona Rebecca • To offer policy recommendations to promote and maintain financial system stabilty Hutagaol, Agus Seno Aji, Rolan Erikson Samosir, Agustina Damayanti, Indra Gunawan Sutarto, Dahnila Dahlan, RR. Diva Amelia Putri, Irman Robinson, Wahyu Widianti, Inrayanto Ariandos, Fransiskus Xaverius Tyas Prasa Information and Orders: OTHER DEPARTMENT CONTRIBUTION ON SELECTED ANALYSIS This edition is published in September 2016 and is based on data and information available as of June 2016, Economic and Monetary Policy Department unless stated otherwise. Financial System Surveillance Department SME Development Department The PDF format is downloaded from https://www.bi.go.id Statistics Department Source : Bank Indonesia, unless stated otherwise Payment System Policy and Oversight Department For inquiries, comment and feedback please contact : Payment System Management Department Financial Market Development Department Bank Indonesia Macroprudential Policy Department PRODUCTION AND DISSEMINATION TEAM Jl. MH Thamrin No.2, Jakarta, Indonesia Saprudin, Satrio Prasojo, Vergina Hapsari, I Made Yogi Email : [email protected] “Mitigating Systemic Risk and Strengthening Intermediation to Maintain Financial System Stability” MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY DEPARTMENT CONTENTS Foreword xv Executive Summary xvii 1. Financial System Stability 3 1.1 Global and Regional Financial Market Risks 5 1.2 Domestic Financial Market Risks 7 1.3 Financial System Stability in Indonesia 10 1.4 Domestic Financial Imbalances 13 Box 1.1. Tax Amnesty 19 Box 1.2. Analysis of Financial Imbalances based on the National Financial Account and Balance Sheet (NFA & BS) 22 Box 1.3. Impact of the Brexit on the Indonesian Economy 25 2. The Financial Markets 31 2.1. The Role of Financial Markets as Sources of Economic Financing 33 2.2. Risks on the Financial Markets 37 2.3. Assessment of Islamic Financial Market Conditions and Risks 52 Box 2.1. Foreign Currency Structured Product Transactions against the Rupiah as Call 60 Spread Options Box 2.2. Waqf-based Sukuk to Empower Waqf Assets 63 Box 2.3. Strengthening JIBOR as the Price Reference Rate on the Money Markets 68 3. Households And The Corporate Sector 71 3.1. Household Sector Assessment 73 3.2. Corporate Sector Assessment 80 Box 3.1. Regional Financial Surveillance (RFS) Implementation Framework at Domestic Bank Indonesia Representative Offices 93 Box 3.2. Bank Indonesia Household Balance Sheet Survey 96 4. Banks and Nonbank Financial Institutions 99 4.1. The Banking Industry 108 4.2. The Nonbank Financial Industry 135 4.3. Islamic Banks 143 Boks 4.1. Awarding Banks that Support Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) Boks 4.2. Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) 150 153 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure 151 5.1. Payment System Performance 153 5.2. Payment System Transaction Performance 154 5.3. Payment System Indicators 156 5.4. Payment System Risks and Mitigation Efforts 157 5.5. Digital Financial Services and Financial Inclusion 159 Box. 5.1. Disbursement of Noncash Social Assistance Funds 163 ii 6. Bank Indonesia Policy Response to Support 167 Financial System Stability 6.1. Assessment of the LTV/FTV (loan-to-value/financing-to-value) Ratios for Property Loans and Downpayments on Automotive Loans 170 6.2. Assessment of the RR-loan to funding ratio (RR-LFR) and adjustments to the checking account services to meet the MSME loan requirement 173 6.3. Setting the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCB) Rate at 0% 176 6.4. Policy Coordination between Bank Indonesia and the Other Authorities 180 Box 6.1. Transmission of the BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate to Bank Interest Rates 182 Box 6.2. Financial Sector Assessment Program: Maintaining Global Financial Stability 187 Box 6.3. Financial Market Development and Deepening Coordination Forum (FK-PPPK) 190 Article 1 194 Systemic Risk Measurement Framework 195 Article 2 212 Financial Network Stability in Indonesia’s Banking System 213 iii LIST OF TABLE 1. Financial System Stability Table 3.6 Corporate Credit by Economic Sector 86 Table 3.7 Credit to Major Export Commodities 87 Table 1.1 Global Economic Outlook 5 Table 3.8 Restructured External Debt by Economic 90 Table 1.2 Total Hedging against External Debt and 17 Sector in May 2016 Compliance in Semester I – 2016 Table 3.9 Positive and Negative Tone External Debt 91 Box Table 1.1 Tax Amnesties in Various Countries 19 Restructuring Box Table 3.2.1 Household Classification based on 97 Spending 2. The Financial Markets 4. Banks and Nonbank Financial Institutions Table 2.1 Bank and Nonbank Financing (Rp, 33 trillions) Table 4.1 LA/NCD by BUKU Bank Group 103 Table 2.2 Sources of Funds by Bank Total 36 Table 4.2 Additional Liquid Assets 103 Table 2.3 Source of Bank Funds by Volume 36 in Quarter II – 2016 Table 2.4 A Comparison of Average NDF Spread in 43 Table 4.3 LDR by BUKU Bank Group 104 the Region Table 4.4 Annual Deposit Growth by Bank Group 105 Table 2.5 Composition of SBN Holdings 44 Table 4.5 SBN Holdings by Institution 107 Table 2.6 10-Year SBN Yields in the Region (%) 46 Table 4.6 Share of Total Deposits by Island 107 Table 2.7 10-Year SBN Yield Volatility in the Region 46 (%) Table 4.7 GDP Growth by Economic Sector 109 Table 2.8 Corporate Bond Holdings 47 Table 4.8 Market Share of Credit in Indonesia 110 based on Project Location Table 2.9 Foreign Stock Holdings by Business 49 Group (Rp, trillions) Table 4.9 Credit Growth by Bank Group 110 Table 2.10 Foreign Stock Holdings by Economic 49 Table 4.10 Growth and Market Share of MSME 112 Sector (Units, billions) Credit by BUKU Bank Group Table 2.11 Index Volatility by Sector 50 Table 4.11 Gross NPL by Region 115 Table 2.12 Issuers of Islamic Stocks 57 Table 4.12 Gross NPL Ratio by Bank Group 115 Table 4.13 Total Downgraded Bonds (Pefindo 115 Table 2.13 Islamic Mutual Funds 58 Rating) Table 4.14 Deposit Rates by BUKU Bank Group 117 Table 4.15 Lending Rates by BUKU Bank Group 117 3. Households and The Corporate Sector Table 4.16 SBN Holding Value by Bank Group 119 Table 3.1 DSR Composition based on Monthly 76 Table 4.17 Share of SBN Holdings by Bank Group 120 Income Table 4.18 Total Downgraded Bonds (Pefindo 122 Table 3.2 Composition of Savings based on 76 Rating) Monthly Income Table 4.19 Banking Industry Profit/Loss (Rp, trillions) 123 Table 3.3 Personal Loans by Type 78 Table 4.20 Breakdown of Income Accounts 123 Table 3.4 Corporate Financial Performance 83 Indicators by Sector Table 4.21 Breakdown of Expense Accounts 123 Table 3.5 Corporate Financial Performance 84 Table 4.22 CAR by Bank Group 125 Indicators by Major Export Commodity Sector Table 4.23 Bank Interconnectedness with the 133 Finance Industry iv Table 4.24 Interconnectedness between the 134 Banking Sector and Insurance Industry Table 4.25 Interconnectedness between the 135 Banking Sector and Insurance Industry Table 4.26 Insurance Industry Assets and Financial 136 Performance Table 4.27 Capital Adequacy of Public Listed 136 Insurance Companies Table 4.28 Financing Risk by Region 140 5. Strengthening Financial System Infrastructure Table 5.1 BI-RTGS, BI-SSSS and SKNBI, Card-Based 154 Instruments and Electronic Money Table 5.2 Ten Large Banks with Most 158 Counterparties Table 5.3 Total Individual and Business DFS Agents 160 in Semester I – 2016 6. Bank Indonesia Policy Response to Support Financial System Stability Table 6.1 LTV/FTV Ratios for Banks to Meet 170 Prevailing NPL/NPF Requirements for Total Credit or Financing Table 6.2 Property Credit, Housing Loans, Flat/ 171 Apartment Loans Table 6.3 NPL Growth of Property Loans for 172 Houses and Flats/Apartments Table 6.4 NPL Growth of Property Loans for Flats/ 173 Apartments Article 2 Article Table
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