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Lionel Barber Editor, Financial Times The 2011 Lowy Lecture Lowy Lecture 2011 on Australia in the World Lionel Barber Editor, Financial Times 1 he annual Lowy Lecture is the Lowy Institute’s keynote event, in which a prominent thinker Trefl ects on the global infl uences shaping Australia and the world. The lecture supports our mission to generate fresh ideas and dialogue within Australia on international developments and to contribute to the wider international debate as an accessible and high-quality forum for discussion of Australian foreign policy and international relations. The shift of global economic and strategic weight from West to East is a change of world- historical signifi cance with particular implications for Australia. It has provided the focus of the Lowy Institute’s major research themes for 2011. The 2011 Lowy Lecture examines the implications of Asia’s rise for the world and offers some prescriptions for accommodating the rising Asian powers in a new economic order for the 21st century. It was delivered by the editor of highly respected newspaper the Financial Times, Mr Lionel Barber. In his lecture, Lionel Barber focuses on China’s phenomenal growth and how its aspirations as the ‘superpower in waiting’ might be accommodated without confl ict. He argues that all interested parties have a mutual interest in upholding and developing – rather than overturning – the rules- based system built up after World War II. While the West, principally the US, will have to adjust to accommodate China, Barber argues that China will also have to accommodate, notably in the fi elds of fi nance, money, trade and direct investment and energy. China’s great test is to achieve a balance between rapid development at home and stability abroad. Australia – and the rest of the world – has a huge stake in the outcome. Lionel Barber has been the editor of the Financial Times since November 2005. Since then the FT has won numerous global awards for quality journalism, including three newspaper of the year awards, which recognised the FT’s role ‘as a 21st century news organisation’. As editor, Barber has interviewed many of the world’s leaders in business and politics including: President Barack Obama, Premier Wen Jiabao of China, President-elect Demetri Medvedev of Russia, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, and President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa. In 2001 European Voice named him one of the 50 most infl uential personalities in Europe. Barber has co-written several books and has lectured widely on US foreign policy, transatlantic relations, European security and monetary union in the US and Europe. The nature of power, and how it is being redistributed in Asia and the world, are the defi ning questions of our age. With the 2011 Lowy Lecture, Lionel Barber challenges us to think harder and deeper about these questions, and how they will test a Western country located on the edge of a rapidly changing Asia. Michael Wesley Executive Director 1 ASIA’S RISE, THE WEST’S FALL? Hence the mildly provocative title for my Lionel Barber lecture tonight. Editor, Financial Times Only last month, Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, Sydney, 17 November 2011 told the Financial Times in a farewell Distinguished guests, ladies and interview that there was a crisis in the gentlemen, it is a great honour to deliver West, in terms of business models and this year’s Lowy Lecture. This is my fi rst political decision-making. Admiral Mike visit to Australia. As an Englishman Mullen, former chairman of the Joint with an Irish grandfather who long Chiefs of Staff, said earlier this year that dreamt of escaping Down Under, that’s the national debt posed the greatest threat an embarrassing admission. A bit like the to America’s national security.* skipper being out for a golden duck. But I The global fi nancial crisis must bear have already found so much to admire: the much of the blame. It was manufactured majestic architecture here in Sydney, the in the West and exported to the rest of the sulphur-crested cockatoos of Katoomba world, wreaking havoc with the public and the mystical beauty of Uluru. Truly fi nances of the US and much of Europe. this is the Lucky Country. Standard & Poor’s decision this summer Donald Horne’s barbed tribute has a to strip the US of its triple A credit rating special resonance today. Resource-rich appeared to confi rm the superpower’s Australia is enjoying the fruits of an steady slippage. Financial markets have extraordinary regional economic boom. challenged the creditworthiness not Luck plays a little part in this chains to riches story. But you are also reaping the merely of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and rewards of politically courageous decisions Spain – but also, crucially, Italy and the to curb public defi cits and infl ation more AAA status of France. than a decade ago. Western leaders have failed to respond Australia’s good fortune is also to be decisively. In early 2009, the newly part of an historic shift from West to East, formed Group of 20 countries did agree driven largely by the rise of the once-poor to recapitalise their banks and collectively countries of China and India. This shift pursue aggressive fi scal stimulus to revive in power, primarily economic power, has their economies. But too often, they have aroused much soul-searching in Europe been offered too little, too late. Western and the US; even talk of an Asian century. governments have either been held hostage 2 by powerful interest groups or paralysed War, seems to share the doubts: ‘In many by ideological divisions. ways, Asian government, not just China, This is particularly true in the but Singapore and in an earlier day, Japan US. Democrats have adopted the and South Korea, had governments that language of European class warfare while looked more like a corporate board of Republicans – cowed by the Tea Party – governance…You run the whole country are dedicated to the proposition of no new like a corporation, and I think that is one taxes under any circumstances. Not even of their advantages at the moment.’* what Ronald Reagan euphemistically used Professor Fukuyama’s corporatist to call revenue enhancers. model may not take suffi cient account of The paralysis of the West contrasts democratic stirrings in, say, Singapore. But with activist leadership in the East, India his point is well taken. Still, I would like being perhaps the exception. China, for tonight to tackle the proposition head-on: Is example, has taken bold steps, fi rst in the West presently severely disadvantaged 2008/9, to stimulate its economy. Beijing with regard to Asia, if not in relative has followed with an ambitious fi ve-year decline? I also want to take a harder look plan to transform the economy from at the sustainability of the Chinese model export-dependent, investment-led growth of authoritarian capitalism. Finally, I to a model more conducive to bolstering would like to issue a friendly warning: wages and domestic consumer demand. if present trends prove durable, we are So will illiberal or authoritarian in the middle of an historic transition. capitalism, at least in the short term, And such transitions usually carry risks. prove more effective than a deadlocked Without accommodation, there is the risk democratic system of checks and balances of confl ict, either through protectionism as practised in the US – or indeed the or, in the last resort, war. What can be makeshift efforts to resolve the euro done to prevent such a negative outcome? crisis among a group of 27 nation states? Europe’s questionable decision to pass The rise and descent of the West round the begging bowl in Beijing offers a symbolic answer. By historical standards, the supremacy of Francis Fukuyama, champion of the West is a relatively recent phenomenon; liberal democracy who is best known for it may prove relatively short-lived too. his book The End of History and The Last Professor Ian Morris of Stanford has Man, published at the end of the Cold identifi ed two poles of civilisation: the 3 Lowy Lecture 2011 West, the civilisations that descended battleships that President Theodore from the agricultural revolution in the so- Roosevelt had dispatched on a 45,000 mile called fertile crescent in today’s Middle cruise around the world as a show of East, and the ‘East’, the civilisations that American power.* emerged from an independent revolution America’s intervention in two world in a part of what is now China. Until the wars – supported by the Australian fall of the Western Roman Empire, the Imperial Force – rescued Europe from West was slightly ahead. It subsequently the demons of nationalism and fascism. fell behind until the 18th century when The US was also present at the creation it edged ahead. Now (even allowing for of a new world order after 1945 based on vagaries of state-sponsored statistics,) the liberal democracy, political reconciliation West looks once more to be lagging.* between France and Germany, and a For the fi rst three quarters of the new rules-based international system for nineteenth century, it was Britain that diplomatic, monetary and trade affairs. appeared as a colossus astride the world. This system was anchored by new Charles Darwin, visiting the thriving port institutions such as the International of Sydney, wrote in January, 1836: ‘My Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the fi rst feeling was to congratulate myself General Agreement of Trade and Tariffs that I was born an Englishman’. Darwin and the United Nations. contrasted Sydney’s bustling prosperity The make-up of these new institutions with the sedate former Spanish and naturally refl ected the preponderance of Portuguese colonies which he had just US power.
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