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Dissertation-REVISONS ! UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA,! SAN DIEGO ! When and Why States! Project Power ! A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy! ! in! Political !Science by Jonathan Markowitz! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !Committee in charge: Professor David Lake, Chair Professor Tai Ming Cheung Professor Erik A. Gartzke Professor Miles Kahler ! Professor Susan Shirk ! 2014 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Copyright! Jonathan Markowitz,! 2014 ! All rights reserved. ! ! ! ! ! ! The Dissertation of Jonathan Markowitz is approved, and it is acceptable in quality !and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: ! ! ! !___________________________________________________________ ! ! !___________________________________________________________ ! ! !___________________________________________________________ ! ! ___________________________________________________________ ! ! ___________________________________________________________ ! Chair ! ! University of California,! San Diego 2014 !iii ! ! ! ! DEDICATION ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! For Megan. ! !iv TABLE OF CONTENTS! ! Signature page ..............................................................................................................iii Dedication .....................................................................................................................iv Table of Contents ...........................................................................................................v List of Figures and Tables .............................................................................................vi Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................ix Vita ............................................................................................................................xviii Abstract of the Dissertation .........................................................................................xx Chapter 1. Introduction .................................................................................................1 Chapter 2. When and Why States Project Power ........................................................29 Chapter 3. When Do States Build Blue Water Navies? A Quantitative Test of the Theory of Geopolitical Competition .......................................................100 Chapter 4. The Arctic and the North Sea ..................................................................149 Chapter 5. The South China Sea ...............................................................................280 Chapter 6. Conclusion ...............................................................................................401 ! !v LIST OF FIGURES! ! ! Figure 2.1: Why States Project Power: A State’s Choice of Foreign Policy ................36 Figure 2.2: Ideal State Types ........................................................................................47 Figure 3.1: Competition Over Time ............................................................................3.1 Figure 3.2: The Total Number of Capital Ships in the System each Year ..................118 Figure 3.3: Predicted Count of Capital Ships ............................................................127 Figure 3.4: Plots of the Mean Predicted Values for Capital Ships .............................128 Figure 3.5: The Proportion of Each State’s Capital Ships In Each Year ....................138 Figure 3.6: Distribution of Economic Capacity .........................................................145 ! ! ! ! ! !vi ! ! LIST OF TABLES ! Table 3.1: Negative Binomial Regression of the Total Number of Capital Ships (1880-1993) .....................................................................................120 Table 3.2: Negative Binomial Regression of the Total Number of Capital Ships (1880-1993 ......................................................................................121 Table 3.4: Negative Binomial Regression of the Total Number of Capital Ships (1880-1993) .....................................................................................122 Table 3.5.: Negative Binomial Regression of the Total Number of Pre-Dreadnought Capital Ships (1880-1913) ........................................................125 Table 3.6: Negative Binomial Regression of the Total Number of Pre-Dreadnought Capital Ships (1880-1913) ........................................................142 Table 3.7: Negative Binomial Regression of the Total Number of Dreadnought Capital Ships (1906-1945) ...............................................................143 Table 3.8: Negative Binomial Regression of the Total Number of Dreadnought Capital Ships (1906-1945) ...............................................................143 Table 3.9: Negative Binomial Regression of the Total Number of Aircraft Carrier Capital Ships (1945-1993) ...........................................................144 Table 3.10: Negative Binomial Regression of the Total Number of Aircraft Carrier Capital Ships (1945-1993) ...........................................................144 Table 3.11: Negative Binomial Regression of the Total Number of Capital Ships (1880-1993) .....................................................................................146 Table 3.12: Negative Binomial Regression of the Total Number of Capital Ships (1880-1993) .....................................................................................147 Table 3.13: Model Prediction for China Aircraft Carrier Development ....................148 Table 4.1: Expected vs. Observed Values ..................................................................158 Table 4.2: Indicators for Coding of Times .................................................................162 !vii Table 4.3: Incidence of Norwegian F-16’s Being Scrambled ....................................219 Table 4.4: Liberal State Dispute .................................................................................223 Table 4.5: The Extractive and Predatory States Disputes ..........................................227 Table 4.6: State Types in the North Sea .....................................................................241 Table 4.7: Covariates .................................................................................................257 Table 5.1: Coding of State Types ...............................................................................299 Table 6.1: Cross-Regional Comparison .....................................................................412 Table 6.2: The North Sea—Cooperative Geopolitical Environment (Control Region) ........................................................................................................412 Table 6.3: The Arctic: Competitive Geopolitical Environment (Treatment Region) ....................................................................................................413 Table 6.4: South China Sea: Highly Competitive Geopolitical Environment (High Dosage Treatment Region) ..............................................................................413 ! ! ! !viii ! ! ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS They say it takes a village, but in my case in took an army, or rather several, spread out across the globe in Los Angeles, La Jolla, Oslo and Cambridge. Without the guidance, support, criticism and camaraderie of these people, this dissertation would not have been possible. My first debt of gratitude goes to my early mentors at UCLA —John Zaller, Jim DeNardo, Marc Trachtenberg, and James Lo. These people generously gave their time, instilled in me a lifelong love of ideas and patiently began the long process of my training. I originally decided to attend graduate school at a different school, but at the last second changed my mind and chose UCSD. The reason was David Lake. It was the most important and best professional decision of my life. I was, to put it mildly, a neurotic and high maintenance graduate student. David had early warning of this when I tracked him down during what was supposed to be the beginning of his peaceful year off at the Center for Advanced Behavioral Studies. It was the summer before my graduate school career had even begun and I was already peppering him with questions. David was then and has been for the last six years incredibly generous with his time, attentive and patient. David has read countless drafts of all of my dissertation chapters and provided me with detailed constructive criticisms and guidance on each one. During the hundreds of office hours with me he endured, David shaped my thinking more than anyone else without imposing his own views on me. David’s !ix super-mensch status is legendary and through watching him help others and myself over the years, I learned that leadership, in large part, rests on one’s ability to provide public goods. As others have noted, he truly is the “liberal hegemon” of UCSD. David’s guidance extended not just to professional matters, but also to proper work-life balance, encouraging me not to spend too much time at my desk. He gave what I think was the best advice I received in preparing for exams, which was to get out of the office and take long walks on the beach. To this day, I still do my best thinking on long walks. Erik Gartzke was instrumental in my choice of what to study and how I approached it. My dissertation topic emerged from a discussion in one my first year classes with him. Erik and I spend hundred of hours tossing around ideas and
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