Towards Next Generation Risk Assessment of Chemicals: Bayesian

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Towards Next Generation Risk Assessment of Chemicals: Bayesian Towards next generation risk assessment of chemicals : bayesian meta-analysis of human variability in metabolism and transporters and application for the derivation of pathway-related uncertainty factors Keyvin Darney To cite this version: Keyvin Darney. Towards next generation risk assessment of chemicals : bayesian meta-analysis of human variability in metabolism and transporters and application for the derivation of pathway- related uncertainty factors. Toxicology. Université de Bretagne occidentale - Brest, 2020. English. NNT : 2020BRES0013. tel-03227086 HAL Id: tel-03227086 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-03227086 Submitted on 16 May 2021 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. THESE DE DOCTORAT DE L'UNIVERSITE DE BRETAGNE OCCIDENTALE ECOLE DOCTORALE N° 605 Biologie Santé Spécialité : Toxicologie Par Keyvin DARNEY Towards next generation risk assessment of chemicals: Bayesian meta-analysis of Human variability in metabolism and transporters and application for the derivation of pathway-related uncertainty factors Thèse présentée et soutenue à Maisons-Alfort, le 26 février 2020 Unité de recherche : Unité Méthodologies et Etudes, Direction d’Evaluation des Risques - Anses Rapporteurs avant soutenance : Sami HADDAD Professeur titulaire, Faculté de médecine, Université de Montréal Michel LAURENTIE Chef d’unité Expérimentation, Modélisation et Analyse de Données, Anses Composition du Jury : Président : Xavier DECLEVES Professeur des universités-praticien hospitalier, Université Paris Descartes Examinateurs : Laurent BODIN Ingénieur-chercheur, CEA Sami HADDAD Professeur titulaire, Faculté de médecine, Université de Montréal Michel LAURENTIE Chef d’unité Expérimentation, Modélisation et Analyse de Données, Anses Raphaële LE GARREC Enseignant-chercheur, Université Bretagne Occidentale Dir. de thèse : Alain-Claude ROUDOT Professeur des Universités, Université Bretagne Occidentale Co-dir. de thèse : Jean Lou DORNE Senior Scientific Officer-Toxicologist, EFSA 1 The research described in this thesis was funded by a grant from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) [Contract number: GP/EFSA/SCER/2015/01] 3 Acknowledgments / Remerciements Je tiens à remercier le Professeur Alain-Claude Roudot de m’avoir orienté vers l’Anses et de m’avoir convaincu de l’intérêt de la modélisation en évaluation des risques. Je suis très reconnaissant à Monsieur Jean Lou Dorne pour avoir initié ce projet ainsi que pour tous les conseils qu’il a sus me donner au cours de ces trois années. Je remercie le Professeur Xavier Declèves de m’avoir fait l’honneur d’accepter la présidence de mon jury de thèse. Ainsi que Monsieur Michel Laurentie et le Professeur Sami Haddad d’avoir accepté d’examiner mes travaux de thèse et d’en être les rapporteurs. Je remercie Madame Raphaële Le Garrec de sa participation à mon jury de thèse de même que Monsieur Laurent Bodin. Merci encore à Laurent pour m’avoir initié aux modèles toxicocinétiques et tout particulièrement pour être venu me voir un jour en me disant «il y a un projet sympa qui va commencer, ça te dit de faire une thèse ? » ! Je tiens également à remercier tous les collaborateurs du projet TK-TD MoHV et en particulier Mme Emanuela Testai pour sa coordination. Merci à l'équipe de "The Crazy Monkey", Leonie Lautz et Emma Kasteel pour tout le travail que nous avons réalisé ensemble mais aussi pour leur soutien durant ce voyage vers la « next generation ». Merci à Monsieur Chris Roth pour son accueil au sein de l’unité méthodologie et études. Merci à Camille Béchaux pour ses conseils et son soutien. Merci pour tout ce que tu m’as enseigné, y compris comment escalader des blocs en salle ! Merci à ensemble de l’UME-UPO pour les moments de convivialité partagés et ces citations mémorables (« Je ne critique pas, je constate »). Merci à François Pouzaud pour m’avoir fait partager sa sagesse concernant les approches BMD et la méthode Lafay. Merci à ma famille pour leurs encouragements chaleureux. Et enfin merci à Aurélys pour m’avoir toujours encouragé et supporté ainsi qu’à notre petit cœur, Trystan, qui aura connu le stress de fin de thèse dès son arrivée dans notre vie. 4 Table of contents 1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 14 1.1. HUMAN RISK ASSESSMENT OF CHEMICALS ................................................................................................. 14 1.2. UNCERTAINTY FACTORS IN CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT .............................................................................. 18 1.3. PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED KINETIC MODELS ................................................................................................ 20 1.4. HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN MODELS FOR THE META-ANALYSIS OF KINETIC DATA .................................................. 21 1.5. ENZYMES AND TRANSPORTERS INVOLVED IN ADME PROCESSES .................................................................... 22 1.6. NEEDS FOR RESEARCH AND IMPLEMENTATION OF KINETIC MODELS IN RISK ASSESSMENT..................................... 28 1.7. SCOPE AND AIM OF THIS THESIS .............................................................................................................. 29 2. AGGREGATE EXPOSURE OF THE ADULT FRENCH POPULATION TO PYRETHROIDS ................................ 31 ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 2.1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 33 2.2. MATERIAL AND METHODS ..................................................................................................................... 34 2.2.1. Study population and biomonitoring data .................................................................................... 35 2.2.2. Permethrin exposure data ............................................................................................................. 36 2.2.3. Human aggregate PBPK model ..................................................................................................... 39 2.2.4. Software ........................................................................................................................................ 45 2.3. RESULTS ............................................................................................................................................ 46 2.3.1. Model calibration .......................................................................................................................... 46 2.3.2. Simulated cis- and trans-DCCA urinary excretion .......................................................................... 47 2.3.3. Contribution of sources and routes of exposure to simulated urinary concentrations of DCCA.... 49 2.4. DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................................ 50 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................................................................................... 53 AUTHOR’S CONTRIBUTION ................................................................................................................................ 53 3. INTER-ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN CYP3A4 METABOLISM: A BAYESIAN META-ANALYSIS FOR THE REFINEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY FACTORS IN CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT ........................................ 55 ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................................... 56 3.1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 57 3.2. MATERIAL AND METHODS ..................................................................................................................... 58 3.2.1. Extensive Literature Search and Data collection ........................................................................... 58 3.2.2. Meta-analysis ................................................................................................................................ 60 3.2.3. Derivation of probabilistic CYP3A4-related uncertainty factors .................................................... 63 3.2.4. Software ........................................................................................................................................ 64 3.3. RESULTS ............................................................................................................................................ 64 3.3.1. Overview of data collection ........................................................................................................... 64 3.3.2. Inter-ethnic differences in CYP3A4 and CYP3A4-related uncertainty factors ................................ 66 3.3.3. Kinetic data for the elderly, children
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