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Economics and Maritime Strategy: Implications for the 21St Century

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Economics and Maritime Strategy: Implications for the 21St Century Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen William B. Ruger Chair of National Security Economics Papers Number 2 Economics and Maritime Strategy: Implications for the 21st Century Proceedings A Workshop Sponsored by the William B. Ruger Chair of National Security Economics Newport, Rhode Island 6–8 November 2006 Richmond M. Lloyd, editor William B. Ruger Chair of National Security Economics Naval War College Newport, Rhode Island D:\_wip\_Ruger Workshop\_Ventura\Ruger_Nov2006_Final.vp Friday, December 22, 2006 1:42:21 PM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen The Naval War College expresses appreciation to the Naval War College Foundation, through the generosity of the William B. Ruger Chair of National Security Economics, in the preparation and pre- sentation of this workshop. The views expressed in the William B. Ruger Chair of National Secu- rity Economics Papers are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Naval War College or the Department of the Navy. Correspondence concerning the Ruger Papers may be addressed to Richmond M. Lloyd, William B. Ruger Chair of National Security Economics, Naval War College, 686 Cushing Road, Newport, RI 02841-1207; by telephone at 401.841.3669; or by e-mail at [email protected]. Our website is http://www.nwc .navy.mil/nsdm/Rugerpapers.htm. ISBN 978-1-884733-42-0 Printed in the United States of America D:\_wip\_Ruger Workshop\_Ventura\Ruger_Nov2006_Final.vp Friday, December 22, 2006 1:42:21 PM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen Contents Introduction . 1 Developing a New Maritime Strategy . 3 Workshop Agenda . 5 Opening Remarks . 9 Rear Admiral Jacob L. Shuford, USN President, U.S. Naval War College Panel I: Maritime Strategy in a Globalizing World . 11 Stability and Change in U.S. Grand Strategy. 13 Dr. Barry R. Posen, Ford International Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Maritime Strategy in a Gobalising World . 19 Dr. Geoffrey Till, Professor of Maritime Studies, Defence Studies Department, King’s College London The United States and Maritime Strategy: A Parochial View from Newport. 25 Dr. Timothy D. Hoyt, Professor of Strategy and Policy, U.S. Naval War College Panel I Summary of Discussion . 31 Moderator: Dr. John H. Maurer, Chairman, Strategy and Policy Department, U.S. Naval War College Panel II: Economic Prosperity and Maritime Strategy . 33 Economic Prosperity and Maritime Strategy . 35 Dr. Richard N. Cooper, Maurits C. Boas Professor of International Economics, Harvard University Asia’s New Wealth and Its Implications for Maritime Strategy . 39 Dr. Ellen L. Frost, Visiting Fellow, Institute for International Economics, and Adjunct Research Fellow, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University Panel II Summary of Discussion . 45 Moderator: Dr. Peter Dombrowski, Chairman, Strategic Research Department, U.S. Naval War College Panel III: Economics and Emerging Maritime Powers . 49 India and the United States: Economic, Strategic, and Maritime Implications . 51 Dr. Stephen Philip Cohen, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Program, Brookings Institution iii D:\_wip\_Ruger Workshop\_Ventura\Ruger_Nov2006_Final.vp Friday, December 22, 2006 1:42:21 PM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen ECONOMICS AND MARITIME STRATEGY: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY “Economics” and Established Maritime Powers: Resource Implications of the New Maritime Strategy . 55 Robert O. Work, Senior Defense Analyst, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments China’s Economic Rise: Impact on U.S.-Australian Alliance . 73 Dr. Leif R. Rosenberger, Economic Adviser, U.S. Pacific Command Panel III Summary of Discussion . 77 Moderator: Dr. Mackubin Thomas Owens, Associate Dean of Academics for Electives and Directed Research and Professor of National Security Decision Making, U.S. Naval War College Panel IV: Terrorism, Proliferation, Transnational Crime, and Migration . 79 The Threat to the Maritime Domain: How Real Is the Terrorist Threat? . 81 Dr. Rohan Gunaratna, Head, International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, and Senior Fellow, Jebsen Center for Counter-Terrorism Studies, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy WMD Proliferation: The Nexus between State, Nonstate, and Antistate Actors. 91 Dr. Mohan Malik, Professor, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies Irregular Warfare, Armed Groups, and the Long War: A New Analytical Framework . 103 Andrea J. Dew, Research Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Panel IV Summary of Discussion . 109 Moderator: Professor Jeffrey H. Norwitz, John Nicholas Brown Academic Chair of Counterterrorism and Professor of National Security Decision Making, U.S. Naval War College Panel V: International Cooperation in Securing the Maritime Commons. 111 Legal Interoperability Issues in International Cooperation Measures to Secure the Maritime Commons . 113 Professor Craig H. Allen, Charles H. Stockton Professor of International Law, U.S. Naval War College Addendum: International Cooperation in Securing the Maritime Commons. 119 Professor Craig H. Allen, Charles H. Stockton Professor of International Law, U.S. Naval War College International Cooperation in Securing the Maritime Commons . 127 Vice Admiral Lutz Feldt, German Navy (Retired) iv D:\_wip\_Ruger Workshop\_Ventura\Ruger_Nov2006_Final.vp Friday, December 22, 2006 1:42:21 PM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen CONTENTS Panel V Summary of Discussion . 131 Moderator: Dr. Thomas R. Fedyszyn, Security, Strategy, and Forces Course Director, National Security Decision Making Department, U.S. Naval War College Working Discussion: Findings and Recommendations for Maritime Strategy . 133 Moderator: Ambassador Paul D. Taylor, Senior Strategic Researcher, Strategic Research Department, U.S. Naval War College Concluding Discussion: Findings and Recommendations for Maritime Strategy . 139 Moderator: Dr. Richmond M. Lloyd, William B. Ruger Chair of National Security Economics, U.S. Naval War College Concluding Remarks. 143 Dr. Richmond M. Lloyd, William B. Ruger Chair of National Security Economics, U.S. Naval War College Participant Biographies . 145 v D:\_wip\_Ruger Workshop\_Ventura\Ruger_Nov2006_Final.vp Friday, December 22, 2006 1:42:21 PM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen Introduction Workshop Focus The purpose of this workshop is to provide a collegial forum for a small and select group of na- tional security specialists to explore the role of a maritime strategy in furthering the twin goals of economic prosperity and security. Workshop Background Globalization can be viewed as the flow of goods, services, funds, people, technology, and in- formation across borders. In the twenty-first century it is characterized by increasing volume and speed. Economic productivity and prosperity have been enhanced by the free flows of goods, services, monies, ideas, and talents with world trade expanding and world GDP grow- ing over the last several decades. A major portion of these flows occurs on the global maritime commons. The National Security Strategy of the United States calls for igniting a new era of global eco- nomic growth through free markets and free trade. It seeks to expand the circle of development by opening societies and building the infrastructure of democracy. And it seeks agendas for co- operative action with other main centers of global power. Unfortunately, there is a dark side to globalization, which comes from the vulnerabilities of the international system. Terrorism, proliferation and potential use of weapons of mass destruc- tion, transnational criminal activities, and forced migration are significant threats to global secu- rity. The global maritime commons provides the highways for these security threats. Thus, the National Security Strategy focuses on defeating global terrorism, preventing attacks against the United States and friends, defusing regional conflicts, and preventing access to and the use of weapons of mass destruction. Besides engaging the opportunities of globalization it is necessary to confront the challenges of globalization. This workshop explores the important relationships between economics and security, with em- phasis on a maritime strategy. Its purpose is to contribute to the development of a maritime strategy in support of the overarching grand strategy of the United States. The workshop is or- ganized using the above construct. Workshop Venue and Format A total of 29 participants attended this, by invitation only, workshop held at the Naval War Col- lege in Newport Rhode Island. The College and its staff provide a professional environment, with full computer and graphic support, to facilitate small group workshops in exploring their specific issues. Panelists prepared and presented their papers (approximately 1500–2000 words) on topics of their choice within the subject area of their respective panel. Following a brief presentation of each panelist’s paper, all participants engaged in extensive discussion of the papers and the fo- cus of the panel. All discussions were conducted under a non-attribution policy. All papers (some longer versions have been included), summaries of working group discussions (prepared by each panel moderator), and key findings and recommendations
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