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Russia's Game Plan and Turkish-Russian Joint Patrols in Idlib

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Russia's Game Plan and Turkish-Russian Joint Patrols in Idlib MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA Russia’s Game Plan and Turkish-Russian Joint Patrols in Idlib OE Watch Commentary: Despite supporting opposite sides of the protracted Syrian conflict, Russia and Turkey have managed to maintain their working relationship. However, as the Syrian regime assumes more control over Syrian territories with Russian help, it becomes harder for Turkey to maintain the delicate balance between Russia and the opposition groups it support in Syria, and to maintain the status quo in Idlib. The accompanying articles discus the challenges Turkey is facing in Syria, especially in Idlib, and how these challenges impact its relations with Russia. The first article, written by a well-respected Turkish journalist closely monitoring developments in Syria, states that Russian actions have shown a lack of confidence in Turkey to fulfill its commitments regarding Idlib. Except for removing some heavy weapons from the demilitarized zone, Turkey has not delivered on its promises in Idlib. However, as the article notes, despite this, Russia has maintained its alliance with Turkey. The author attributes this to the Russian view that a joint structure would make it easier to minimize attacks from Idlib on Russian and Syrian regime units. In addition, Turkey has engaged in efforts to consolidate the opposition groups in Idlib, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, under one umbrella (although these efforts have not yielded results). It is highly unlikely that Turkey will be able to unify the opposition groups in Idlib and maintain the cease-fire because the Turkey-backed groups attacked regime forces as recently as 9 March 2019. As the second article from the left-leaning Turkish daily Gazete Duvar reports, a new Russian and Turkish agreement paved the way for joint Russian-Turkish patrols starting on 8 March 2019 in Idlib. According to the agreement, Russian forces would patrol outside the city limits of Idlib while the Turkish Armed Forces would patrol the demilitarized zone. While Turkey and Russia have different scenarios for the future of Idlib, the first article states that the future of Russian-Turkish relations depends on preserving the status quo in Idlib. (See: “Russian Military Art and Science and Leadership Signaled from Syria” in this issue of OE Watch, p. 4) End OE Watch Commentary (Gündüz) “Preservation of the status quo at Idlib seems essential to the future of Russian-Turkish relations.” Source: Fehim Tastekin, “Russia seeks to hold reluctant Turkey accountable in Syria,” Al-Monitor, 20 March 2019. https://www.al-monitor. com/pulse/originals/2019/03/turkey-syria-russia-is-ankara-giving-up-on-idlib.html Turkey, which is badly pressed to fulfill the commitments it made to Russia during the Sochi negotiations on Syria, … is now trying to find a way to extricate itself from being stuck between Russia and the Syrian rebels. When Turkey’s campaign to create a buffer zone east of the Euphrates River did not work out, Russia succeeded in dragging Turkey back to the Idlib agenda. On March 3-4, Russia and Turkey signed a new accord to follow up on the issues discussed during the Iran, Russia and Turkey summit Feb. 14 in Sochi. The new text introduced some interesting points. On March 8, Russian forces patrolled on one side of the buffer boundary as Turkish troops patrolled the other. … The steps Russia has taken so far show that Turkey probably will not be able to avoid fulfilling its commitments, but the situation also raises the question of whether Turkey is actually subscribing to the Russian operational plan that will put Idlib under the control of the Syrian regime army. … Although Turkey managed to get some heavy weapons removed from the demilitarized zone to save face, other conditions weren’t implemented… Russia kept up some pressure with facile statements that “Turkey is working on it, but the accord has not been fully implemented.” Nevertheless, Russia opted not to disrupt its ties with Ankara for a variety of reasons. … with a joint structure it would be easier to minimize attacks from Idlib on Russian and Syrian regime units, and enable Turkey to boast that terror organizations had been eliminated and so the cease-fire should be preserved… … Preservation of the status quo at Idlib seems essential to the future of Russian-Turkish relations. Although unwillingly adhering to Russia’s operations plan, Turkey still hopes HTS will be freed from the terrorist label, so a new “terror- free” structure can take over control of Idlib and preserve the status quo until a political solution is reached. Russia still hopes Turkey will contribute to the Syrian regime’s takeover of the region. Russia is paying much attention to keeping Turkey on its side while trying to sort out the Idlib mess. Source: “Akar: İdlib’de ortak devriye bugün başlıyor (Akar: Joint patrols start today in Idlib),” Gazete Duvar, 8 March 2019. https://www. gazeteduvar.com.tr/gundem/2019/03/08/idlibde-ortak-devriye-basliyor/ Idlib is one of the important fields we are currently working on. We provide the necessary coordination with both Russia and Iran. This 17 September [2018] accord played an important role. There is a demilitarized zone here. Within the framework of our meetings on 14 February [2019], today on the border zone outside of Idlib Russia’s and in the demilitarized zone Turkish Armed Forces’ patrol will begin. In terms of the continuation of the ceasefire in the region, we see this as an important step. OE Watch | May 2019 46.
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