Managing Shared Climate Change Risks in a Transboundary River Basin

Managing shared climate change risks in a transboundary river basin,

The Nile Basin Initiative experience (second part, 9th November 2011, Marrakech)

Abdulkarim H Seid NBI Secretariat The Nile Basin Initiative

• A joint institution of the 10 Nile Basin States • Launched on 22 February 1999 • Directed by Nile Council of Ministers (Nile-COM) Historical variability of average discharge

- High seasonal and inter-annual variability of discharge - Climate change  more variability  more extremes - Storage infrastructure needed for any meaningful utilization of water resources 3 Scenarios of sub-basin runoff under climate change

Wide difference in how the future runoff evolves under climate change - High uncertainty for Tekezze-Atbara, Bahr el Jebel, - Potentially more runoff for Tekezze- Atbara, Bahr el Jebel, - Relatively less uncertainty on projection of runoff 4 NBI response to climate change challenges Transboundary policies Institutions • The NB Sustainability Framework (NBSF) • Provide platform for TB cooperation • Climate Change Strategy • Training and capacity building • Sub-basin level guidelines for • Data and Information exchange investment projects • Partnership building (IWMI, GWP, • Wetland Strategy UNEP,LVBC) • Environmental and Social Policy and guidelines Information • The NBI Environmental Flow Management Strategy • Joint Analytic tools (NB DSS) • Dam safety framework • Water demand & supply projection • Regional knowledgebase Infrastructure • Basin monitoring: • Joint, multi-sector investment Evapotranspiration, enhancing planning (sub-basin level): basins monitoring infrastructure) hydropower, irrigation, watershed • State of the Basin Report (every 5 management years) • Climate proofing guides - investments • Flood forecasting and warning • Capacity building (in climate finance) communication 5 Disaster preparedness: strengthening member countries 20°0'0"E capacity30°0'0"E to mitigate40°0'0"E flood risks

4 EN Flood Monitoring Program pilot Areas

30°0'0"N

30°0'0"N 1. Lake Tana flood forecasting system (Ethiopia) Main Nile 2. Blue and Main Nile flood forecasting (Ethiopia and Sudan) 3. Baro-Akobo-Sobat (BAS) flood forecasting

20°0'0"N

20°0'0"N Tekeze-Setit-Atbara (Ethiopia and South Sudan)

Baro-Akobo-Sobat-White Nile 4. Wadi Al Arish flash flood mapping (Egypt)

Abay-Blue Nile 1 Main activities: flood forecasting, warning

10°0'0"N 3 10°0'0"N 3 communication and community preparedness support

Delineation of flood prone areas and setting flood marks (GYR colors)

0°0'0"

20°0'0"E 30°0'0"E 40°0'0"E Climate change adaption at regional level in the Nile Basin. Examples: Investment in green energy

 Increased integration of economies  Reduced thermal power costs Ethiopia – Sudan Interconnection (Sudan) - Inaugurated in 2013  Reduced GHG from reduced - 100 – 200 MW being traded fossile fuel usage (Sudan) CC mitigation  Increased export revenue (Ethiopia)

 Increased integration of economies of Burundi, Rwanda Rusumo falls HEP project and Tanzania - Joint project (Burundi,  Increase electricity access to over Rwanda, Tanzania) 1,100,000 people - Financing secured  Clean energy  reduction of GHG emission 7 Climate change adaption at regional level in the Nile Basin Examples

Improved joint Basin monitoring Regional hydromet system for the Nile Basin - Design completed; first regional hydro- meteorological monitoring system for the Nile Basin - Improved CC adaptation – one of the objectives of the system - Real-time data sharing system – part of the design - First phase implementation to start in 2017 Livelihood centered integrated watershed management

Changes observed

after

after Improved joint river basin planning

Multi-Sector Investment Plans  Basin/sub-basin as hydrologic - Multi-country sub-basin wide unit  Optimize resource use water resources plan for NEL taking comparative - Multi-country, multi-sector advantages of countries investment strategy for  Leverage regional cooperation Eastern Nile for better adaptation to climate change

from 1955 to 2014 Legend 8.77 15.55 West Delta 00.0 Flow indicators BCM Irrigations 15.7 10.4 East Delta Scenario Analysis Irrigations Selcted Location 3.41 6.23 Greater Cairo M&I 1000 5.57 Assute-Cairo Irrigation Evaporation/Precipitaion 1000 59.16 Assute Fayyum 2.88 Barrage Irrigation NagaaHammadi-Assute 2.68 Hydropower Irrigation Nagaa Hammadi 61.21 Barrage 0.0 Demand Node 2.41 Esna-NagaaHammadi Irrigation Lake/Wetlands Uppet Egypt 2.99 M&I EGYPT Isna Barrage 5.79 Aswan-Isna Irrigation Reservoir

66.13 12.4 0.00 Aswan Dam Jointly developed Tekeze 0.63 2.77 Tekeze-Atbara Basin

Nile at Dongola 79.87 0.89 New Halfa Tekeze 0.20 80.76 Merowie Dam 1.53 Dam 0.02 1.51 8.98 0.03 Setit 0.13 Kashim el 1.64 0.43 0.06 Girba 5.36 84.04 12.52 Atbara 12.72 Upper Atbara 14.24 0.20 14.37 72.38 0.00analytic tools for

0.87

Lake Tana Tributaries 0.24 Blue Nile Sub-Basin 5.21 0.68 1.43 Pumps US Sennar 0.15 NW Sennar Rehad Dindir Rahad I II Lake 5.06 Suki 3.30 3.01 Blue Nile At Diem Station Tana 1.01 2.18 49.58 Beles 2.26 Sudan 73.33 5.83 0.66 43.04 39.95 0.52 47.56 exploring0.25 19.01 1.00 climate 38.23 0.46

26.23 Sennar Dam 23.96 12.53 Gebel Aulia Blue Nile Roseires Dam 1.63 WN Pump Schemes 43.97 0.29 Amerti Dam Blue Nile 0.24 2.05 0.75 0.08 3.33 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.06 at Kessie Blue Nile 6.61 0.04 Kenana Sugar 0.87 at 1.38 Gezira 6.58 11.43 Khartoum 1.19 0.29 Dabus Didessa 0.37 Asalaya Sugar 0.28 0.24 2.8 FInchaa Dam 0.8 0.6 Machar 9.19 3.04 change adaptation 4.24 8.94 11.76 7.43 2.80 White Nile at Malakal 12.58 Birbir 30.47 Sobat Baro 14.6 3.53 3.15 3.66 4.64 4.44 17.89 Gilo Bahir El Gezal 3.37 58.3 Sudd Swam 5.33 Alwero Tams Geba 27.9 4.08 0.01 0.85 Akobo 0.01 1.85 44.97 0.11 Yei & Goi 4.14 pibor South Sudan 0.02 options in a regional 1.5 Bahir El Jabel Baro Akobo Sobat Sub-Basin

39.41 Mongalla Station Ethiopia 1.81 40.26 0.75 Lake Edward Lake Albert 3.41 Semliki 7.93 36.03 5.82 Soroti & Malaba Lake Albert Sub-Basin Lake Kyoga (TB) context DRC 1.20 KENYA

Ruizi, Katonga& 0.02 LV West & North 31.73 0.16 0.03 0.06 Cathments Victori Nile Sub-Basin 2.1 4.34 Nzoia , Yala & Sio 1.45 7.29 Lake 1.32 Nyando,Sondu_Miriu & Awach Nyabarongo Kagera Victoria RWANDA 9.38 Migori-Kuja 102 115.

0.91 0.00 0.01 0.01 3.91 2.09 TANZANIA Ruvubu Rubare Rubana & Mara & LV East BURUNDI Mbalageti Cathments 0.04 Isanga, Simiyu, Mamwe & Southern Lake Victoria Sub-Basin LV Cathments