Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Draft Report - 02 April 2015

Hertfordshire County Council

Draft | 2 April 2015

This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party.

Job number 233237-77

Ove Arup & Partners Ltd 13 Fitzroy Street London W1T 4BQ United Kingdom www.arup.com

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Contents

Page

Executive Summary 1

1 Introduction 8 1.1 Background 8 1.2 Approach 9

2 Objectives and Industry Timescales 10 2.1 Rail Development Objectives for Hertfordshire 10 2.2 Rail Industry Timescales 13

3 Methodology 15 3.1 Rail Strategy Issues 15 3.2 Conditional Outputs 21 3.3 Development of Interventions 25 3.4 Intervention Sifting 28 3.5 Rail Strategy Development 31

4 The Rail Strategy for Hertfordshire 34 4.1 West Anglia Main Line 35 4.2 East Coast Main Line 41 4.3 Midland Main Line 51 4.4 West Coast Main Line 56 4.5 London to Aylesbury Line (including underground/overground lines) 60 4.6 Orbital (East – West) Movement Within the County 65 4.7 Access to International Airports 70 4.8 HS2 Opportunities 72 4.9 Station Facilities, Station Access and Train Facilities 72 4.10 Freight 74

5 Strategic Priorities 76 5.1 Strategic Priorities 76 5.2 Top Priorities 83 5.3 Action Plan 86 5.4 Implementing the Strategy 90

Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Appendices

Appendix A Stakeholders

Appendix B Disused Rail Lines

Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Executive Summary

Introduction Transport, including rail, has and will continue to play a key role in maintaining Hertfordshire as a place where people want to live and work. Recent and emerging national and local strategies, together with forecast population trends, point to the continuation of historical growth in Hertfordshire and neighbouring areas, with ever increasing pressures on the county’s existing transport system. Central government projections indicate that the strategic road and rail networks will become increasingly congested if nothing, or even a minimum, is done. The Hertfordshire Rail Strategy is therefore required to ensure that the railway in Hertfordshire can support economic growth and development by agreeing investment priorities for the next fifteen to twenty years and beyond. It sets the strategic framework against which decisions regarding future franchises and investment in key elements of infrastructure can be identified and prioritised. Specifically, the strategy will be used to influence the rail industry’s strategy development process, such as Network Rail’s Long Term Planning Process, and ensure that conditional outputs feed through into key documents such as the Government’s Initial Industry Plan (2016) and High Level Output Specification (HLOS) for Control Period 6 (2019-2024), which is due to be published during summer 2017. It will also inform the specifications for all of the local rail franchises when they are retendered. Arup was appointed by Hertfordshire County Council (HCC) in March 2014 to undertake the Hertfordshire Rail Strategy study. The objective for the study was to update and refresh HCC’s existing Rail Strategy published in 2011. This document is the Hertfordshire Rail Strategy Report, the main deliverable from the study. The report is informed by a suite of technical reports1, which are referenced in this report and should be consulted for further details and evidence.

Approach and Objectives A high-level strategic approach has been developed for this study. The strategy does not develop detailed options, rather it identifies potential interventions that the County Council and its partners can either develop directly or can support third parties to develop. The initial task of the study was to identify the rail development objectives for Hertfordshire. These were identified through review of relevant planning and policy documents and internal officer discussion. The four development objectives for rail in Hertfordshire are: 1. Competitiveness; 2. Economic Growth; 3. Environment and Sustainability; and 4. Population Growth.

1 Baseline Report, Conditional Outputs Technical Note, Interventions List Technical Note, Options Sifting Technical Note.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

The objective for the study is to identify proposals for strategic investment in rail to meet these objectives, which the County Council, working with partners, can plan and deliver. It is important to understand that rail industry planning timescales are long. Each Control Period (the period over which the Office of Rail Regulation sets regulatory targets, income and costs for Network Rail) lasts five years. Whilst this is good for the industry, in that it can plan with some certainty of funding for that period, it means that new infrastructure schemes often have to be planned with more than five year lead times. This highlights the importance of having a rail strategy to inform this long term planning process. The approach and industry timescales are presented in Chapter 2, including the LTP4 Vision work that is taking place in conjunction with the Rail Strategy.

Key Issues and Themes Baseline analysis and stakeholder consultation was undertaken to identify the key issues that will impact on achieving the development objectives in Hertfordshire. A number of key stakeholders were consulted throughout the development of the rail strategy to obtain views on the key issues for rail in the county. The key themes identified during the baselining stage of the study are:  rail plays a very important role in the Hertfordshire economy;  a few key rail stations in the county are dominant, particularly for travel to London;  there is a lack of good orbital (east-west) rail links in Hertfordshire;  there are issues with station and train facilities that affect the passenger experience of rail in the county;  rail is an important component of the Hertfordshire transport network in providing mobility and accessibility;  rail will need to accommodate increased travel demand in future;  a number of Hertfordshire’s rail lines are forecast to be over capacity by 2031; and  a number of rail projects are committed or planned that will transform rail travel in the region in the next 10-15 years.

Detailed issues have also been identified by line and these can also be found in the ‘Baseline Report’. Overarching themes that occur over a number of lines include:  capacity constraints and bottlenecks on lines;  peak time overcrowding on key services;  highway congestion on major roads;  strong projected population, employment and housing growth;  low frequencies and slow journey times from key stations;  gaps in suburban and long distance provision; and  poor connectivity between key Hertfordshire towns.

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The rail strategy issues are presented in full in Chapter 3.

Conditional Outputs and Interventions Conditional outputs for the Hertfordshire Rail Strategy have been developed strictly on an evidence-led basis to address the issues identified in the baselining stage. This clearly sets out Hertfordshire’s aspirations for the level of rail services it needs to meet the overarching development objectives for the county. Conditional outputs are a statement of the long term planning aspirations for the level of rail service provided. They are required to inform future investment decisions and are not constrained by considerations of cost and deliverability. They are designed to articulate a vision or aspiration for the future rather than a final recommended project or scheme, and are conditional on affordability and a value for money business case being determined. For example, where the baseline analysis and stakeholder consultation identified uncompetitive journey times to London on the Hertford Loop, the conditional output developed to respond to that is to: improve journey times to London from stations on the Hertford Loop, such as Hertford North and Cuffley. Following identification of the conditional outputs, the next stage was the development and prioritisation of interventions. This involved the identification of a list of interventions that, either in isolation or as a package of measures, serve to address the conditional outputs. A long list of interventions was developed, divided into three distinct categories:  Committed Interventions: a list of interventions that directly address each Conditional Output and are committed for delivery by the rail industry or other relevant parties;  Planned Interventions: a list of interventions that directly address each Conditional Output and are currently planned but not committed for delivery by the rail industry or other parties; and  Other Possible Interventions: a list of possible further interventions that directly address each Conditional Output. These have been developed as part of the Strategy study and are not currently being planned by the rail industry. Interventions have been proposed where it is considered the committed and planned Interventions do not fully address the Conditional Output and the issue that sits behind it. As outlined above, professional judgement and a firm understanding of the evidence base built up during the baselining exercise was used to establish where additional interventions are required above and beyond those schemes that are already committed or planned. For example, on the Hertford Loop a committed scheme to deliver updated rolling stock is identified, but no further planned schemes. So to meet the conditional output on improved journey times, other interventions are recommended, such as prioritised infrastructure investment in upgrades and revised stopping patterns on the Loop (branded as the Hertford Loop Metro). Each of the interventions has been sifted and prioritised and, where they scored well enough, carried through to the strategy development phase. In order to identify which interventions should be included in the rail strategy, the

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interventions were tested against a set of criteria designed to identify those actions which 1) will deliver the wider strategic objectives, 2) are practical in terms of being capable of delivery, and 3) have, or potentially have, a good business case. Most interventions passed the sifting process, with just three being rejected at this stage. Some scored higher than others, which enabled interventions to be prioritised. All interventions, that scored either a pass or a good pass, were carried forward for consideration in the rail strategy. At this point, the study team used an internal workshop to take these interventions and form them into a coherent strategy for each route section. The conditional outputs, development of interventions, and intervention sifting are all reported in Chapters 3.

Rail Strategy Development The rail infrastructure within Hertfordshire consists of a number of independent rail corridors, generally running south–north through the county. There are different franchised operators for each of these routes and Network Rail treats each corridor as a discrete route with its own demand pressures and capacity and investment priorities, many of which are driven by considerations outside Hertfordshire. The rail strategy therefore deals with each corridor individually, while at the same time developing an overall coordinated strategy that addresses network-wide topics, such as east-west movement or station access, as shown in the diagram below.

Further details of the rail strategy development are presented in Chapter 3.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

The Rail Strategy for Hertfordshire The strategy has been developed to define rail’s role in supporting the future development of Hertfordshire’s economy and competitiveness, population growth and environment / sustainability. It focuses on the following key themes:  To support competitiveness, improvements in links to the rest of the country are recommended to maximise benefits from the agglomeration effect that better transport connections between centres can bring;  To support economic growth, the strategy comprises a number of interventions that improve the rail service for commuting trips from Hertfordshire;  To address sustainability, the strategy proposes improvements to east-west orbital movement by public transport; and  To support population growth, the strategy includes recommendations for the development of strategic transport hubs around key stations.

18% population growth 15% employment growth forecast in Hertfordshire by forecast in Hertfordshire by 2031 (+203,000 people), with 2031 (+80,000 jobs), with particularly high growth particularly high growth in around Watford Welwyn and St Albans

Main lines into London 16% of commuting trips in forecast to be over capacity by Hertfordshire are made by rail. 2031 - Midland Main Line 51% of commuting trips to 133% of capacity, West Coast London use rail 107%, Great Northern 104%. (60,000 people each day).

Importantly, the strategy recognises that, if opportunities are fully exploited, the county could benefit from significant investment in rail enhancements in the next 5-10 years, through major projects such as the Thameslink programme, Crossrail and potentially East West Rail. It could also benefit from utilising capacity on the existing railway network released by the opening of HS2. Chapter 4 provides full details of the recommended strategies for each route and topic, which comprise a series of committed, planned and other interventions that address the relevant conditional outputs identified through the baseline analysis.

Strategic Priorities The rail strategy recommends a large number of short, medium and long term interventions in the rail network in Hertfordshire to meet its overarching development objectives. In order to focus the County Council’s resources and its stakeholder’s efforts on the most important elements of the rail strategy, a number of strategic priorities have been identified. The strategic priorities for the Rail Strategy are presented in Chapter 5 and are the main interventions that comprise the strategy for each route.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Within the strategic priorities, the top priorities have been identified. These are listed below and are recommended interventions that address multiple conditional outputs and are expected to deliver a step-change in rail service for Hertfordshire. These top priorities were presented to stakeholders at a rail strategy workshop in January 2015 and were generally agreed as the most important priorities for rail development in the county, and are shown below.

Hertfordshire Rail Strategy Top Priorities

Deliver additional capacity and enhanced access to Watford town centre through the Croxley Rail Link project, and developing a Watford Interchange Hub.

Improve connections to key destinations such as Sheffield and Nottingham following completion of electrification of the Midland Main Line, lobby for the introduction of long distance stops at St Albans.

SHORT TERM

Increase capacity and service frequency on the West Coast Main Line, and enhance journey opportunities to London, HS2 and Heathrow through a Crossrail 1 WCML link.

Develop ‘Hertford Loop Metro’ concept through service improvements (capacity, frequency, speed) to take advantage of the new Stevenage turnback platform and new stock, and develop a

TERM Stevenage Interchange Hub with improved long distance

MEDIUM MEDIUM connectivity.

Provide for transformative east-west rail connectivity in the north of the county through support for East-West Rail Central Section

southern option via Luton and Stevenage, connecting Stevenage hub to key employment centres and enhancing orbital connections.

LONG TERM LONG Secure long term capacity and adequacy improvements on the West Anglia Main Line through support for four-tracking and the Crossrail 2 project in Hertfordshire.

Implementing the Strategy This new rail strategy for Hertfordshire has been developed with extensive engagement both internally, as well as with key industry and local stakeholders. This process has developed general support for the recommended interventions and the strategic priorities, although inevitably different stakeholders have different priorities.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

The top priorities identified in this report will be developed as a priority to feed into the main rail industry processes, such as Network Rail Route Study consultations, DfT’s HLOS process, and franchise consultations and renewals. Alongside this process the remainder of the strategic priorities will also be progressed with relevant stakeholders. There is excellent stakeholder interest and support for this strategy from both within the county and the rail industry, and this will be harnessed by the County Council and its partners to deliver a successful rail strategy that delivers the development objectives for the county.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

1 Introduction

1.1 Background Arup was appointed by Hertfordshire County Council in March 2014 to undertake the Hertfordshire Rail Strategy study. The objective for the study is to update and refresh the County Council’s existing Rail Strategy published in 2011. This new rail strategy document sets the strategic framework against which decisions regarding future franchises and investment in key elements of infrastructure are identified and prioritised. It will inform upcoming rail franchise consultations and provide an objective evidence base for funding opportunities. Specifically, the strategy will be used to influence the industry’s strategy development process (such as Network Rail’s Long Term Planning Process) and ensure that conditional outputs feed through into key documents such as the Government’s High Level Output Specification (HLOS) for Control Period 6 (2019-2024) which is due to be published during summer 2017. It will also inform the specifications for all of the local franchises when they are retendered. The Hertfordshire Rail Strategy is therefore very important to ensure that the railway in Hertfordshire can support economic growth and development by agreeing investment priorities for the next fifteen to twenty years and beyond. This Rail Strategy is informed by a suite of technical reports2, which are referenced in this document and should be consulted for further details and evidence.

2 Baseline Report, Conditional Outputs Technical Note, Interventions List Technical Note, Options Sifting Technical Note.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

1.2 Approach A high-level strategic approach has been developed for this Strategy. The Strategy does not develop detailed options, rather it identifies potential interventions that the County Council and partners can either develop directly or can support third parties to develop. The approach is illustrated in Figure 1.1. Stakeholder engagement opportunities are highlighted in orange. Figure 1.1: Study Approach

Scoping Stage  Stakeholder meetings (April 2014)  Stakeholder Workshop (June 2014)

Inception

Stakeholder Engagement Data Review and Analysis  Stakeholder meetings (September 2014)

Conditional Outputs  Conditional Output Workshop (October 2014)

Assessment of Interventions

Rail Strategy Development  Rail Strategy Workshop (January 2015)

Consultation and Final Strategy  Period of Public Consultation

The main outputs from each stage of the study are summarised in the following chapters.

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2 Objectives and Industry Timescales

2.1 Rail Development Objectives for Hertfordshire The initial task of the study was to identify the rail development objectives for Hertfordshire. These were identified through review of relevant planning and policy documents. Documents reviewed include:  The Department for Transport’s (DfT) Rail Command Paper (March 2012);  The DfT’s Local Transport White Paper (January 2011);  Network Rail’s (NR) London and South East Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) (July 2011), London and South East Market Study (October 2013), Long Distance Market Study (October 2013), Freight Market Study (October 2013) and Route Studies (including Anglia and East Midlands – both draft for consultation at time of study);  Hertfordshire County Council Corporate Plan 2009/12;  Hertfordshire County Council Local Transport Plan (2011) and Transport Vision; and  Hertfordshire Local Enterprise Partnership Strategic Economic Plan (March 2014). Key themes from these documents were identified to develop the rail objectives for Hertfordshire, as shown in Figure 2.1, overleaf. The four development objectives for rail in Hertfordshire are: 1. Competitiveness; 2. Economic Growth; 3. Environment and Sustainability; and 4. Population Growth.

2.1.1 Hertfordshire Transport Vision The County Council adopted its existing Local Transport Plan (LTP3) in April 2011; however, the national context for transport and planning has changed considerably since then. The delivery of economic growth, in the form of housing and jobs, is much higher on the national Government’s agenda and the national and transport planning context has evolved significantly to reflect this. In transport delivery terms, it is approaching a crossroads. By 2020, the existing Local Transport Plan will be largely delivered and it’s now the time to plan for the next generation of transport improvements to support future prosperity and growth. This will be done by developing a long-term Transport Vision for LTP4. This will dovetail with the emergent COMET transport model (COunty ModEl of Transport) in Hertfordshire and the Hertfordshire Rail Strategy through 2015. It is envisaged that this work will begin to highlight the issues and main priorities in terms of movement, and rail infrastructure is likely to be key in helping to address the issues that may be faced.

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Once the outcomes of the Vision work are complete it is probable that the rail strategy will require revisiting to ensure that it aligns with the long term vision and includes any new rail related priorities.

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Figure 2.1: Development Objectives for Rail in Hertfordshire

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

2.2 Rail Industry Timescales A key element in developing the rail strategy is understanding the rail industry timescales for development of initiatives. A summary of the timescales in the industry is shown in Figure 2.2. It is important to understand that rail industry planning timescales are long. Each Control Period (the period over which the Office of Rail Regulation sets regulatory targets, income and costs for Network Rail) lasts five years. Whilst this is good for the industry, in that it can plan with some certainty of funding for that period, it means that new infrastructure schemes often have to be planned with more than five year lead times. For example, the plans for Control Period 5 (2014-2019) are now fixed (although there may be some scope to lobby for funds not yet allocated), so any new infrastructure schemes will likely have to be implemented in Control Period 6 (2019-2024). Planning for this period starts with the Planning Oversight Group’s Initial Industry Plan to be delivered in 2016 and the Department for Transport’s High Level Output Specification (HLOS), which is expected to be published in 2017. Consultation and negotiations to inform the HLOS have already started, for example with the publication of Network Rail’s Route Studies. There are opportunities to progress smaller schemes and service improvements through the franchise renewal processes, of which a number will occur in Hertfordshire before the end of the current Control Period, for example Greater Anglia and London Midland. Major projects will also have a significant impact on the county, particularly over the next 10-20 years, with schemes such as Crossrail 1 and HS2, and potentially Crossrail 2 and East-West Rail Central Section all scheduled to be implemented in this timescale.

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Figure 2.2: Rail Industry Timescales

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3 Methodology

3.1 Rail Strategy Issues

3.1.1 Baseline Analysis The purpose of this section of the report is to identify the key issues that will impact on the rail offer in Hertfordshire. The first part of this involved desk-based analysis of the existing and future situation, carried out under the following sections: Table 3.1: Summary of Baseline Analysis

Section Summary of Content

The existing situation in terms of population and employment at Demographics – Existing the county and regional level

The future situation in terms of population, employment and Demographics – Future development plans at the county and regional level

The existing transport provision in the county featuring, but not Network – Existing limited to track layout, station and train facilities, competition analysis, frequencies, journey times and road congestion The future of the rail network in Hertfordshire including Network – Future committed and planned schemes and a more in-depth analysis of proposed major schemes (e.g. Thameslink, Crossrail 2 etc.) Detailed analysis of the current level of demand on the network Demand – Existing including commuting flows , station usage and crowding analysis Analysis of future demand on the Hertfordshire transport Demand - Future network including forecast road congestion and forecast rail crowding

A detailed breakdown of all of the issues identified in the Issues previous sections, both overall and by line

3.1.2 Stakeholder Consultation Along with the desk-based analysis, a number of key stakeholders were consulted throughout the development of the Strategy to obtain views on the principal issues for rail in Hertfordshire. Consultations were carried out over a series of events as outlined in Table 3.2, the most important of which were the Conditional Outputs Workshop, where feedback was received on the development of the Conditional Outputs, and the Strategy Workshop, where the key findings were presented and feedback received. A full list of stakeholders can be found in Appendix A.

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Table 3.2: Stakeholder Consultation Summary

Date Event Overview of Stakeholder Attendees

Internal scoping Members and Officers from Hertfordshire County 7 April 2014 workshop Council (HCC)

External scoping Officers from HCC, Local Authorities, Districts 20 June 2014 workshop and Rail Industry representatives

Cambridgeshire County Council, Sustrans, Stakeholder drop-in 8 September 2014 Hertfordshire University, Stevenage Borough session Council, FCC/Govia & TfL Officers from HCC, Local Authorities, Districts, Conditional 15 October 2014 Hertfordshire Chamber of Commerce and Rail Outputs workshop Industry representatives

13 November Network Rail Network Rail and Officers from HCC 2014 engagement

Officers from HCC, Local Authorities, Districts, 30 January 2015 Strategy Workshop Hertfordshire Chamber of Commerce and Rail Industry representatives

A number of important issues emerged from the stakeholder consultation events and, coupled with the baseline analysis, all were considered while developing the conditional outputs and potential interventions. Some of the key issues and concerns identified were: Stakeholder Meetings  station facilities are poor in places and need to be addressed;  access to rail stations and integration is very important;  rolling stock improvements need to be made, but will largely be addressed through existing programmes such as Thameslink, the new GTR rolling stock on the Hertford Loop, the Inter City Express Programme (IEP), and future planned schemes such as Crossrail 2;  capacity increases need to be implemented;  there is a problem with overcrowding on many London Midland services on the West Coast Main Line and it will be critical that the best use is made of the released capacity when Phase 1 of HS2 is introduced;  there are capacity and adequacy issues on the Hertford Loop, largely as a result of poor quality and low capacity rolling stock, and long journey times to London;  east-west movement by rail is constrained, particularly to and from East Hertfordshire;  big businesses in Hertfordshire towns (e.g. Stevenage) rely on rail for wide job catchments, including bringing in a skilled workforce; and  it is important that a holistic view of the network is taken, particularly when deciding where to locate new developments and the impact this will have on the overall rail network in the region.

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Conditional Outputs Workshop  it is crucial that the Rail Strategy ‘tells the story’ and is closely linked back to the Development Objectives. Evidence is important right through the process;  committed schemes are unlikely to change much in scope but it is important to look at the major projects that will affect rail in Hertfordshire and to decide what is wanted from them;  it is important not to lose sight of access to stations as a crucial issue;  connections to airports are important for the county. Links to Gatwick are currently very good and are set to improve when Thameslink comes fully online;  while connectivity with London will need to continue to be a vital consideration, better connections with other centres are also an important issue;  the image of the station is important and this is a known issue at some Hertfordshire stations, for example Stevenage; and  decisions regarding fares and ticketing are taken at a national level but there may be opportunities to lobby in this area. Strategy Workshop  there was broad agreement for the concept of developing station hubs at Stevenage and Watford Junction as gateways to the county;  there was support for the Crossrail 2 project, with a desire for an early start to support improvements on the West Anglia Main Line. There was differing opinion on where the terminating point should be, with Cheshunt, Broxbourne, Hertford and Stansted all mentioned. This needs further consideration as part of the ongoing LTP4 Vision work;  the importance of Cambridge as a destination was highlighted several times;  there was support for introducing long distance stops on the Midland Main Line at St Albans, but a few stakeholders also challenged this with the planned improvements at Luton;  improved services to long distance destinations in the Midlands and North were supported, but different destinations were cited as important and stakeholders highlighted the need to assess the case for new links and key destinations; and  The importance of East West links within and beyond the county was supported, particularly an East West Rail central section route across the north of the county, and improved bus / coach links as a short-term measure.

3.1.3 Key Issues and Themes This section highlights the key issues and themes raised during the baselining element of the study. These were identified through a combination of desk-based analysis and stakeholder consultation. The detail and in-depth evidence behind each of the issues and themes identified is reported in the Hertfordshire Rail Strategy ‘Baseline Report’, and key elements of the evidence are included in Chapter 4 of this report.

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The themes are:  rail plays a very important role in the Hertfordshire economy - rail mode share in Hertfordshire is 16% for work trips, over 60,000 people commute out of the county by rail each day, with the majority (96%) commuting to London (for which rail mode share is 51%). Rail also brings over 12,000 workers into the county, with about 75% of these coming from Greater London;  a few key rail stations in the county are dominant, particularly for travel to London - the top 10% of stations (St Albans City, Watford Junction, Stevenage, Elstree & Borehamwood, and Harpenden) account for 39% of all rail demand in Hertfordshire, St Albans and Watford Junction both have 6-7m passengers per year;  there is a lack of good orbital (east-west) rail links in Hertfordshire - orbital road links (e.g. M25, A414) are congested and forecast to get worse. The rail network is largely radial (to and from London) meaning there are connectivity gaps;  there are issues with station and train facilities that affect the passenger experience of rail in the county - satisfaction is below the south east average for many train facilities, particularly on Greater Anglia and Thameslink / Great Northern services (e.g. staff availability and helpfulness, on-train information, and upkeep and repair of trains). There are also gaps in provision of accessible facilities at some of the most used stations;  rail is an important component of the Hertfordshire transport network in enabling movement and access - congestion on the Hertfordshire road network is a significant issue, particularly on key corridors such as the A1(M), and many strategic roads are expected to be over capacity by 2031, causing longer and more unreliable journey times;  rail will need to accommodate increased travel demand in future - Hertfordshire’s population is projected to grow by 18% to 2031 (an additional 203,000 people). Employment is expected to grow by 15% (over 80,000 new jobs). In addition, growth in neighbouring areas, particularly London, Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire, will increase demand for rail travel through Hertfordshire;  a number of Hertfordshire’s rail lines are forecast to be over capacity by 2031 - Midland Main Line long distance services to St Pancras are forecast to be at 133% of capacity by 2031, with West Coast Main Line suburban services at 107%, Great Northern services to Moorgate at 104%, and Chiltern services to Marylebone at 100%; and  a number of rail projects are committed or planned that will transform rail travel in the region in the next 10-15 years - major projects, such as the Thameslink Programme, Crossrail 1, HS2 and potentially Crossrail 2 and East West Rail, will provide significant changes to the capacity available and journey opportunities on key services to and from Hertfordshire. Detailed issues have also been identified by line and these can also be found in the ‘Baseline Report’. Overarching themes that occur over a number of lines include:  capacity constraints and bottlenecks on lines (for example short platform lengths on the WAML and joint running on the London to Aylesbury Line);

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 peak time overcrowding on key services (for example on Great Northern services from Welwyn Garden City and Thameslink services from St Albans);  strong projected population, employment and housing growth (for example a 20% increase in population in Watford to 2031 and a 23% increase in jobs in St Albans);  low frequencies and slow journey times from key stations (for example 6tph from Hatfield to London and 43 minutes from Hertford North to London);  gaps in suburban and long distance provision (for example poor connectivity from Watford to local destinations and concern about the long distance level of service at Stevenage); and  poor connectivity between key Hertfordshire towns (for example east to west links such as between St Albans and Bishops Stortford). A number of committed projects, for example the Thameslink Programme, the Inter City Express Programme, the West Anglia Main Line short-term capacity improvements, and GTR’s Hertford Loop improvements, will contribute to overcome some of these issues, and the rail strategy is intended to provide a basis for Hertfordshire to influence these and other schemes. The map presented overleaf in Figure 3.1 provides an overview of these issues.

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Figure 3.1: Issues Summary Map

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3.2 Conditional Outputs

3.2.1 Conditional Output Definition Conditional Outputs are defined by Network Rail as: ‘a statement of the long term planning aspirations for the level of rail service provided. They are required to inform future investment decisions and are not constrained by considerations of cost and deliverability’. Conditional Outputs can be expressed in terms of:  Capacity: what capacity the railway could provide to a market or flow (e.g. number of trains, train length); and  Adequacy: the level of service that could be provided (e.g. journey time, rolling stock quality, facilities, and integration with other modes of transport). They are designed to articulate a vision or aspiration for the future rather than a final recommended project or scheme, and are conditional on affordability and a value for money business case being determined.

3.2.2 Development of Conditional Outputs Conditional Outputs for the Hertfordshire Rail Strategy have been developed strictly on an evidence-led basis. As described above, each of the issues identified in the baseline analysis have been divided into route packages and then further subdivided into capacity and adequacy issues. A list of Conditional Outputs is then developed to address the issues identified, thus setting out the aspirations for the level of rail services needed to meet the overarching development objectives for the county. For each Conditional Output, evidence in support of the initial issue statement has been identified along with a checklist of which Development Objectives would be targeted by addressing it. An example of this process for one issue is shown in Figure 3.2 below and a full list of all issues and Conditional Outputs is reported in the Hertfordshire Rail Strategy ‘Conditional Output Technical Note’.

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Figure 3.2: Conditional Output Development Example

3.2.3 Conditional Outputs in the Strategy All of the Conditional Outputs are presented in Chapter 4 of this Report. An example of how this is presented for the Hertford Loop is shown below in Figure 3.3 and the full tables can be found in Chapter 4. Figure 3.3: Example of Conditional Outputs in Strategy (Hertford Loop)

3.2.4 Conditional Output Prioritisation The Conditional Outputs have been ranked and prioritised based on how well they address the Development Objectives and the scope of projected population, housing and employment growth that each one addresses. This exercise has been

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carried out to identify the Conditional Outputs of the highest strategic and local importance and the findings are presented below. The methodology used to rank the Conditional Outputs was to use a simple scoring framework based on three categories, namely:  the number of Development Objectives targeted;  the level of proposed additional housing in the vicinity of stations targeted; and  the level of proposed additional employment in the vicinity of the stations targeted. Given the criteria used, in particular for housing and employment, the rankings tend to highlight the network-wide Conditional Outputs, with the majority of the top scoring outputs falling in this category. The top Conditional Outputs with the highest scores are listed in order below in Table 3.3. Table 3.3: Highest Ranking Network-Wide Conditional Outputs

Conditional Output Improve rail access to key Hertfordshire employment centres: Watford, Stevenage, Hemel Hempstead, St Albans and Welwyn Garden City; and hospitals: Welwyn Garden City (QE2), Stevenage (Lister), Hertford (County), Watford (General), St Albans (City), Hemel Hempstead and Mount Vernon. Develop options to provide for east-west movement within Hertfordshire that are competitive with car. Ensure that rail freight growth does not impact on required peak and off-peak passenger services. Encourage more balanced use of rail stations across Hertfordshire to maximise use of existing infrastructure, without losing focus on those with the highest demand Accommodate forecast growth in rail commuting demand to at least maintain current rail mode share Improve connectivity to external non-London employment centres: Cambridge, Milton Keynes, Oxford, Bedford, Luton Improve connectivity between key Hertfordshire stations and important long distance destinations to the north including, but not limited to, Newcastle (ECML), Manchester (WCML) and Nottingham (MML). Improve rail services and promote rail use on corridors where relatively small changes in journey time or frequency could make rail more competitive

The results of the ranking exercise highlight the importance of improving rail access to employment centres in Hertfordshire, rather than just focussing on commuter services out of the county to London. The messages around east west movement, both within and beyond the county, are supported by strong stakeholder feedback, as presented in Section 3.1.2, and thus have been given careful consideration throughout the development of the Strategy. The other priorities are important as they relate to issues across the whole network in the county and the significant population, housing and employment growth they could therefore support.

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For Conditional Outputs that address specific issues by line, the six top scoring outputs are listed below in Table 3.4. Table 3.4: Highest Ranking Line Specific Conditional Outputs

Line Conditional Output

Address physical constraints to enable capacity increases to accommodate forecast rail demand on the WAML. West Anglia Main Line Provide sufficient rail capacity on the WAML for forecast demand to and from neighbouring growth areas such as Essex and East Cambridgeshire, as well as to London

Address constraints to enable capacity increases to accommodate forecast rail demand on the ECML. Maintain or improve level of service for long distance services on the East Coast Main ECML and improve the range of directly served destinations including, Line (including but not limited to, Newcastle, Edinburgh, Durham, Leeds and York. Hitchin to Ensure that there is an adequate level of service on the Hitchin to Cambridge) Cambridge Line to maintain connectivity between Cambridge and the ECML. Ensure sufficient services are provided to Cambridge from key stations in Hertfordshire.

The first point to note is the relative strategic importance of the ECML (including Hitchin to Cambridge) and WAML to Hertfordshire. Within these lines the highest scoring outputs both refer to addressing physical constraints as a means to unlocking capacity. The rankings also highlight the importance of Cambridge as a destination from Hertfordshire, as well as maintaining and improving long distance connections on the ECML.

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3.3 Development of Interventions

3.3.1 Intervention Development The next stage of the Strategy was the development and prioritisation of interventions. This involved the identification of a list of interventions that, either in isolation or as a package of measures, serve to address the Conditional Outputs that have been identified during the previous stage of the study. A long list of interventions was developed to address each Conditional Output. Interventions were divided into three distinct categories:  Committed Interventions: a list of interventions that directly address each Conditional Output and are committed for delivery by the rail industry or other relevant parties;  Planned Interventions: a list of interventions that directly address each Conditional Output and are currently planned but not committed for delivery by the rail industry or other parties; and  Other Possible Interventions: a list of possible further interventions that directly address each Conditional Output. These have been developed as part of the Strategy study and are not currently being planned by the rail industry. Interventions have been proposed where it is considered the committed and planned Interventions do not fully address the Conditional Output and the issue that sits behind it. As outlined above, professional judgement and a firm understanding of the evidence base built up during the baselining exercise was used to establish where additional interventions are required above and beyond those schemes that are already committed or planned. An example intervention is shown below in Figure 3.4 (for the Hertford Loop) and the list in its entirety is reported in the Hertfordshire Rail Strategy ‘Interventions List Technical Note’. Figure 3.4: Intervention Identification Example

As part of the intervention identification process, each intervention was assessed and detailed tables produced.

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For committed and planned schemes the following information has been presented:  Description: a brief description of the intervention;  How Conditional Output(s) are addressed: how the intervention addresses the Conditional Output;  Previous studies: any previous studies that have been carried out analysing the scheme;  Costs and benefits: any known information regarding current costs of the scheme and (where possible) quantifiable benefits to Hertfordshire;  Funding and delivery: who is, or is likely to, fund the scheme and who is responsible for delivering it;  Risks and issues: the most relevant risks and issues relating to the scheme from a Hertfordshire perspective; and  Timescale: will the scheme be delivered in the short term (CP5 – up to 2019), medium term (CP6 – up to 2024) or long term (CP7 onwards – 2025 and beyond). For other possible interventions, less information is available and so only the description, how it addresses the Conditional Output (including the main benefits), risks and issues and timescale are presented. Below in Figure 3.5 is an example of one of the intervention tables (for Intervention HA1a3 identified above for the Hertford Loop). All of the detailed tables are reported in the ‘Intervention List Technical Note’. Figure 3.5: Detailed Intervention Table Example

3 This is a reference code for the intervention so each one has a unique identifier.

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3.3.2 Interventions in the Strategy Each of the interventions has been prioritised and, where they scored well enough, carried through to the strategy development phase. An example of how the interventions are presented (for the Hertford Loop) is shown below in Figure 3.6 and the complete set of tables for all routes can be found in Chapter 4. The table shows how different interventions address different conditional outputs – for example, the Updated Rolling Stock intervention addresses the bottom three condition outputs in the table (indicated by the coloured box around the intervention). The Stevenage Turnback Platform addresses the first three Conditional Outputs, and so on. Figure 3.6: Example of Interventions in Strategy (Hertford Loop)

It should be noted that Interventions are not necessarily presented in the order of Committed, Planned and then Other, rather, consideration has been given to likely timescales with the shorter term interventions to the left and longer term to the right. The next stage in the development of the Strategy was the Intervention Sifting which is presented in Section 3.4.

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3.4 Intervention Sifting

3.4.1 Methodology In order to identify which interventions should be included in the rail strategy, it was necessary to test the previously identified interventions against a set of criteria designed to identify those actions which:  will deliver the wider strategic objectives;  are practical in terms of being capable of delivery; and  has, or potentially has, a business case. In order to identify which interventions should be included in the rail strategy, it was necessary to test them against a set of criteria designed to identify which would: deliver the most strategic objectives, are most likely to be delivered, have the best business case. Three key criteria were identified as set out in Figure 3.7. Figure 3.7: Intervention Assessment Criteria

Suitability •How does the option address policy objectives? •How well does it support wider plans and strategies? •How well does it support population / housing growth? •To what extent does it support Conditional Outputs? •To what extent is rail the most suitable mode?

Feasibility •Is the option deliverable and by whom? •What are the key risks to delivery? •To what extent can funding realisitcally be obtained?

Acceptability •To what extent does the option have, or is it likely to have, a good business case?

In order to undertake the prioritisation of the options these three criteria were each further divided into 10 sub-criteria. Interventions were scored against each of these with 0 representing a low fit against the criteria, 1 a medium fit and 2 a high fit. These scores were then combined to generate an overall option score. The full Intervention Scoring Framework is reported in the ‘Option Sifting Technical Note’. On the basis of the total score awarded to each intervention, each was placed into one of three categories:  Good Pass (score greater than 14);  Pass (score between 7 and 14); or

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 Fail (score less than 7). The process of scoring the options was fully reviewed and the results moderated to ensure a high level of consistency. As part of this scoring list, a flag has also been added highlighting whether each intervention is of a local or strategic scope. For example, a scheme such as Thameslink is a large scale strategic scheme that the County Council can input to through industry stakeholders but ultimately have minimal influence over the delivery. An example of a local intervention may be improving access to stations in Hertfordshire which the County Council can directly influence the delivery of. During the scoring process each proposed intervention was assessed discretely and on its individual merits, irrespective of any relation to dependent schemes that address the same issue. It is acknowledged that in reality many of the schemes proposed are inter-connected and dependent on each other for delivery. It should also be noted that interventions may also work against each other, such as providing solutions for passenger as opposed to freight capacity and long distance as opposed to local service capacity. Careful consideration of balancing respective needs and priorities will be given wherever this occurs. It should also be noted that where given interventions are listed against two or more Conditional Outputs, it is possible that they may have scored differently for each one. This means that an intervention could be a fail against one Conditional Output but still carried through into the Strategy due to it achieving a pass against a different Conditional Output. It is also the case that different Interventions for the same Conditional Output can score differently as a judgement has been made based on how well each individual Intervention addresses the output. Consideration has also been given to instances where Interventions address more than one Conditional Output. The schemes achieving a ‘Good Pass’ or ‘Pass’ have been considered further in the Strategy. Those delivering a ‘Fail’ outcome have effectively not demonstrated that they would represent an appropriate use of resources as identified across the broad range of criteria, and are therefore excluded from further consideration in this rail strategy.

3.4.2 Outcome of Sift The outcome of the Intervention Sift in terms of how many interventions scored a ‘Good Pass’, ‘Pass’ or ‘Fail’ is summarised below in Table 3.5. Table 3.5: Intervention Sift Summary

Good Pass Pass Fail 57 Interventions 118 Interventions 3 Interventions

It should be noted that the majority of those which are in the ‘Good Pass’ category are committed schemes as these have tended to score well across a broad range of criteria.

The three interventions that failed to make it through the sift are listed below, along with a brief explanation of why they failed.

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 Extend Crossrail 1 services to St Albans via WCML – this intervention scored poorly on feasibility, particularly in terms of deliverability, funding and risk. The proposed extension of Crossrail 1 services to Tring (or an alternative suitable location) is considered a beneficial intervention for Hertfordshire, but the technical challenges associated with upgrading the Abbey Line to receive these services are considered too great for the benefits it would bring. This intervention should be given further consideration as part of the LTP4 Vision work.  Divert Moorgate services to Kings Cross – this intervention scored particularly poorly on feasibility and business case. This is because a maximum of 12 services run per hour in to Moorgate with a theoretical maximum capacity of 16 services per hour and other constraints apply north of Finsbury Park. For this reason it would not deliver material benefits, especially as – interchanging at Finsbury Park provides a range of options which will improve significantly with the full opening of Thameslink in 2018 and Crossrail 1 via Moorgate in 2019.  Creation of a Metro-style rail network across South Herts – this intervention proposed large-scale infrastructure investment in south Hertfordshire, with more stations, closer together with more frequent services and links between radial routes. This intervention scored poorly on feasibility as well as the suitability of rail and its potential business case. It is uncertain if the south of Hertfordshire has the population density required to support such a dense heavy rail network and the technical challenges are deemed to be too great to deliver such a scheme within the scope of this rail strategy. This intervention should be given further consideration as part of the LTP4 Vision work. All other interventions, that scored either a pass or a good pass, were carried forward for consideration in the rail strategy. At this point, the interventions were reviewed and formed into a coherent strategy for each route section, as outlined in Section 3.5 and Chapter 4. It should be noted that although all passes and good passes were considered at this stage, some were rejected on the grounds that they did not fit well with the evolving strategy for their relevant section or a decision was made based on professional judgement that they were unsuitable for inclusion in the final rail strategy. It should be noted that only a handful of schemes were sifted out at this stage, for example an ‘operational review of the WCML’ was removed as it was established that following route modernisation the line is operating efficiently with the available capacity. Where interventions have been removed in this ‘secondary sift’ they have still been referenced in the narrative within the relevant section of the rail strategy.

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3.5 Rail Strategy Development This section reports how the rail strategy was developed by routes and topic areas, and how it is presented in Chapter 4.

3.5.1 Rail Strategy Routes and Topic Areas The rail infrastructure within Hertfordshire consists of a number of independent rail corridors, generally running south – north through the county – see Figure 3.8. There are different franchise operators (Train Operating Companies or TOCs) for each of these routes, and sometimes more than one TOC per corridor. Network Rail treats each corridor as a discrete route with its own demand pressures and capacity and investment priorities, many of which are driven by considerations in London or further north, as far away as Scotland. Each corridor has its own Long Term Planning Process driving future investment plans, and cross-boundary analysis ensures that issues across route corridors are also considered. It is therefore important that this Rail Strategy deals with each corridor individually, while at the same time developing an overall coordinated strategy that addresses network-wide topics, such as east-west movement or station access. The development of the Rail Strategy has not been constrained by the existing network but a realistic view has been taken on interventions that are deliverable within the next 2-3 control periods i.e. to 2030. Beyond that other longer term aspirational interventions have been referred to the emerging Transport Vision. Significant committed changes and projects will be optimised to deliver the maximum benefit for Hertfordshire. Figure 3.8: Rail corridors passing through Hertfordshire

This strategy review therefore addresses each corridor in turn, from east to west, and then the network-wide topics – as shown in Figure 3.9. Each corridor is in

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turn divided into broad service groups, for example the Midland Main Line is subdivided into Long Distance and Thameslink Suburban so interventions can be considered at the appropriate service level. Figure 3.9: Rail Strategy Areas and Topics

3.5.2 Presentation of the Rail Strategy For each area service group, the following information is presented to show the strategic rationale for the recommended approach:  Relevant development objectives;  Specific key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement;  Conditional outputs identified for the service group; and  Interventions recommended to address the conditional outputs. The recommended interventions include committed, planned, and other possible schemes. Committed interventions are those schemes that are already firmly committed and funded by DfT as part of the Network Rail Control Period 5 funding confirmed by the Office of Rail Regulation in 2013. This covers the period 2014 – 2019. It also includes commitments made by franchised train operating companies (such as new Hertford Loop rolling stock and service enhancements to be provided by Govia Thameslink Rail) and major DfT sponsored rolling stock procurements. Planned and Other interventions are schemes that may already be well defined and intended to be implemented after CP5, but are not yet firmly committed, and

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therefore may still be at risk. Where implementation of these interventions has a crucial impact on Hertfordshire their firm adoption will continue to be lobbied hard for. This is particularly relevant as the Control Period 6 funding review process will start in 2016, while franchise policy will continue to evolve over the next few years. Alternatively, there may be new ideas or proposals that need further development work to determine if they are viable. In all cases, schemes which benefit the county should be supported at an early stage, and where funding is sought from the County Council it should be convinced that there is a robust business case before committing any funds. At the end of each main route section, the strategic priorities are identified for the route and for the relevant service groups (or for the topic in the case of network-wide topics). Strategic priorities are the main interventions that comprise the strategy for each route or topic. Within the strategic priorities, the top priorities are identified. These are recommended interventions that address multiple Conditional Outputs and are expected to deliver a step-change in rail service for Hertfordshire. These top priorities were presented to stakeholders at a rail strategy workshop in January 2015 and generally agreed as the most important priorities for rail development in the county. It should be noted that some topics or areas do not have top priorities as they have a series of interventions, none of which individually meet multiple Conditional Outputs. Chapter 4 presents the rail strategy in the format described above.

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4 The Rail Strategy for Hertfordshire

This chapter presents the rail strategy for Hertfordshire, in the format described in Chapter 3. It provides details of the recommended strategies for each route and topic, which comprise a series of committed, planned and other interventions that address the relevant conditional outputs identified through the baseline analysis. The strategy has been developed to define rail’s role in supporting the future development of Hertfordshire’s economy and competitiveness, population growth and sustainability. It focuses on the following key themes:  To support competitiveness, improvements in links to the rest of the country are recommended to maximise benefits from the agglomeration effect that better transport connections between centres can bring. This includes more frequent and faster long distance services to the north of the UK, better connections to international airports in the south east, and good access to strategic rail lines such as HS1 (for travel to Europe) and in the longer term to HS2;  To support economic growth, the strategy comprises a number of interventions that improve the rail service for commuting trips from Hertfordshire into London (and vice versa), and also to other important centres such as Oxford and Cambridge;  To address sustainability, the strategy proposes improvements to east-west orbital movement by public transport to provide an attractive alternative to using the car on a highway network that is already congested and forecast to get worse;  To support population growth, the strategy includes recommendations for the development of strategic transport hubs around key rail stations in Stevenage and Watford where housing and job growth is forecast and can be accommodated more sustainably.

16% of work trips in Main lines into London Hertfordshire are made by rail. forecast to be over capacity by 51% of commuting trips to 2031 - Midland Main Line London use rail 133% of capacity, West Coast (60,000 people each day). 107%, Great Northern 104%.

Importantly, the strategy recognises that the county will benefit from significant investment in rail enhancements in the next 5-10 years, through major projects such as the Thameslink programme, IEP and Crossrail. It will also benefit from utilising capacity on the existing railway network released by the opening of HS2. The following sections provide details of the strategy by route and by topic.

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4.1 West Anglia Main Line The rail lines covered under the West Anglia Main Line strategy area are shown in Figure 4.1. The West Anglia Main Line links London Liverpool Street with Cambridge and East Anglia, and also includes the Hertford East Branch to Broxbourne. Figure 4.1: West Anglia Main Line Route Map

4.1.1 West Anglia Main Line The development objectives targeted for the West Anglia Main Line are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth;  supporting the environment and sustainability; and  supporting population growth. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the West Anglia Main Line are:  existing capacity constraints on the line, particularly platforms that cannot accommodate 12-car trains and two-track infrastructure that does not allow fast trains to overtake stopping services;  long journey times to London relative to other corridors, for example 38 minutes from Bishops Stortford (compared to 24 minutes from Stevenage);  capacity issues at Liverpool Street and the importance of Stratford as an alternative and as a destination for employment and leisure in its own right, with the scope to interchange onto Crossrail for Canary Wharf and Central London and connections to City Airport via the DLR;

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 rail growth will be driven by significant housing and population growth in Hertfordshire, Essex and Cambridgeshire by 2031 (+15% in Broxbourne, +26% in East Cambridgeshire);  West Anglia services into London Liverpool Street are close to capacity and as a result of this growth are forecast to reach capacity (97%) by 2031; and  planned growth at Stansted Airport (from 18m now to 45m passengers per year by 2030) will place additional demands on the rail corridor from outside the county. Given the above issues, the conditional outputs identified for the West Anglia Main Line are to:  address constraints to enable capacity increases to accommodate forecast demand;  provide sufficient capacity for forecast demand to and from neighbouring growth areas;  provide sufficient capacity for forecast demand to London; and  improve journey times to London from all stations including Bishops Stortford. The interventions recommended to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.2. Figure 4.2: West Anglia Main Line Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: CP5 enhancements scheme – Committed – CP5 (2014-2019) This committed scheme adds capacity by improving timetabling, rolling stock utilisation and performance, primarily by delivering 4tph in the peak on the Lea Valley Line to Stratford in place of the current 2tph. This is partly achieved by three-tracking certain sections of the line south of Hertfordshire. It provides additional connections to significant employment growth areas in East London such as Stratford and (via DLR) Docklands and South East London. The County

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Council will support these improvements, noting that even with this scheme, core capacity problems on the WAML are expected to remain. Beyond the committed enhancements scheme, some West Anglia local services are being transferred to TfL operation which should see marginal improvements to Sunday services and station facilities. Timetable studies would help inform further options that would build on the benefits brought about by these enhancements, see further details below. Train / platform lengthening and extra platforms at Liverpool Street – Planned – CP6 (2019-2024) Following the enhancements scheme in CP5 Network Rail has plans to increase capacity by lengthening platforms to allow for 12-car operation at Cheshunt and Waltham Cross. This scheme should see all WAML high peak services being lengthened to 12-car by the end of 2024 (providing sufficient rolling stock is made available). The implementation of Crossrail 1 in 2019 will divert Shenfield services away from Liverpool Street station, and with some reorganisation of key junctions would allow more WAML services to run into the central London by 2024. These improvements would benefit Hertfordshire stations on the WAML, and should be supported for implementation in CP6. Four-tracking of the West Anglia Main Line – Other (under discussion) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) A long standing aspiration for the WAML is to expand key sections to four tracks (from two / three) to improve journey times by allowing services from Bishops Stortford and Hertford East to run fast from Cheshunt or Broxbourne. This would be achieved by overtaking slower stopping services. Some sections of the route have space for the additional tracks, though this remains a major enhancement project. This would provide additional timetabled services to increase capacity and substantially reduce journey times from key Hertfordshire stations to London. Influence in this project could be gained and benefits demonstrated by undertaking timetable studies to help inform on further options that would build on the benefits brought about by these enhancements. This work would investigate how to reduce journey times by adding more fast services and increase frequencies to London Liverpool Street. It would focus on areas where four tracking would be particularly beneficial, and would enable the County Council to develop a strategic business case for the investment with which to lobby DfT and Network Rail. Following the recent announcement of a West Anglia Task Force, which will work towards improving connections to Stansted and Cambridge from Liverpool Street, this is another organisation that can be directly lobbied for improvements on the line. Crossrail 2 - Other (under discussion) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) Crossrail 2 is a proposed new rail route running from Surrey through the centre of London to Hertfordshire in the north. The project is being championed by TfL, which sees it both as a crucial follow on to Crossrail 1 to relieve capacity pressures in South West London and Surrey, and also as an extension of the Overground network. However, currently, Crossrail 2 services are planned to terminate at Cheshunt, although further development work is ongoing and there will be very real opportunities to push a case for terminating services at key

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stations in the county. Part of this process will be a decision on whether Crossrail 2 will operate as a metro or regional service. If it is operated as a regional service then there will be more scope to serve destinations in Hertfordshire that are further from the core section. In terms of key dates, further feasibility work is ongoing in 2015 leading up to a consultation period later in the year. This will provide a key opportunity for to promote the County Council’s aspirations for Crossrail 2.

Elsewhere in London conversion of services to Overground operation has delivered very substantial patronage increases, and Crossrail is expected to do the same. In terms of benefits, significant capacity would be released on the WAML by passengers diverting to Crossrail 2 and this is likely to provide the largest benefits for the county in terms of additional capacity into London. Connections will also be enhanced through a host of new destinations in Central London and Surrey. To maximise the benefits to the county, the County Council will continue to strongly support services running through to destinations such as Hertford East (see below) and Stansted Airport to improve connections – two locations that

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came through strongly as preferred terminal points in the stakeholder engagement. Demand modelling carried out to date, however, has suggested a weak case for extension to Stansted due to a low demand for services with longer journey times. There also appears to be less of a case to extend services all the way to Cambridge as the high capacity suburban stock would be unsuitable for long distance journeys. The committed and planned WAML capacity enhancements would be easier to justify as part of a major infrastructure investment project such as Crossrail 2, rather than as individual standalone schemes, and would bring the best potential for a programme of long term capacity enhancements.

4.1.2 Hertford East Branch The Hertford East branch runs from Broxbourne to Hertford East. It does not connect with the Hertford Loop at Hertford North station. There is no direct connection to Stansted going north. The development objectives targeted for the Hertford East are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth;  supporting the environment and sustainability; and  supporting population growth. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the Hertford East Branch are:  existing capacity constraints caused by platforms that cannot accommodate 12-car trains and a single track section through the station at Ware which limits timetabling flexibility;  poor service frequency relative to other corridors, with services generally only every 30 minutes due to the single track section through Ware Station;  very poor journey times to London, for example 51 minutes from Hertford East, compared to other comparably distanced stations; and  poorly timetabled connections to Stansted Airport via Broxbourne, and no direct rail access. Given the above issues, the conditional outputs identified for the Hertford East Branch are to:  address constraints to enable capacity increases to accommodate forecast demand;  enhance journey times from the Hertford East Branch to London; and  improve connections and frequencies to Stansted Airport. The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.3.

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Figure 4.3: Hertford East Branch Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: CP5 enhancements scheme – Committed – CP5 (2014-2019) This committed scheme will relieve capacity issues by improving timetabling, rolling stock utilisation and performance. The timetable study referred to above (under the Main Line) should be used to identify ways to increase service frequency to 4tph, and to reduce journey times by running at least two of these services semi fast throughout the day. The County Council will continue to support these improvements. Train / platform lengthening and extra platforms at Liverpool Street – Planned – CP6 (2019-2024) Following the enhancements scheme in CP5, Network Rail has plans to further increase capacity by lengthening platforms to allow for 12-car operation at Hertford East, Ware, St Margaret’s and Rye House, which the County Council will continue to support and press for a firm commitment for implementation in CP6. Double track at Ware Station – Other (possible) - CP7+ (2024 onwards) This additional intervention proposes the reinstatement of a second platform at Ware to increase capacity and reduce performance risks by removing the bottleneck and timetable constraint that the current layout imposes on the branch. The double tracking at Ware Station will assist in enabling Crossrail 2 should it become a committed scheme with Hertford East as a terminating destination. Crossrail 2 to Hertford East – Other (under discussion) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) Crossrail 2 is discussed under the Main Line section above, in particular with reference to services running to Hertford East. Hertfordshire should promote extension of at least two Crossrail 2 services per hour to Hertford East. This would significantly increase capacity on the branch through provision of additional services, and would release capacity on regular services to Liverpool Street and allow them to run fast from Cheshunt. Additionally, Hertford would be linked by a new direct route to Central London and Surrey.

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To support the strategic case for Crossrail 2 and to help deliver Hertfordshire’s growth requirements more sustainably, the implementation of development around key stations on the branch including Hertford East will be considered.

4.1.3 West Anglia Main Line Strategic Priorities The strategic priorities identified for the West Anglia Main Line are presented below:  Short term: Continue to press for service improvements from the committed CP5 enhancements to reduce journey times and increase frequencies.  Short to medium term: Develop options to further improve services through a timetable study to capitalise on planned investment. Increase line capacity by continuing to press for planned train and platform lengthening, and provision of extra platforms released by Crossrail 1 at London Liverpool Street before the end of CP6.  TOP PRIORITY - Long term: Secure long term capacity and adequacy improvements, including four-tracking of the WAML, through support for the Crossrail 2 project and its extension into Hertfordshire, and in particular to Hertford East, utilising the Task Force as a lobbying opportunity. Investigate the implementation of development around Hertford East branch stations to increase the benefits of the project for the county.

4.2 East Coast Main Line The rail lines covered under the East Coast Main Line strategy area are shown in Figure 4.4. The corridor includes Great Northern Suburban services from Kings Cross to Welwyn Garden City, Hitchin, Letchworth Garden City, Baldock and Royston (en route to Peterborough, Cambridge and Kings Lynn), ECML Long Distance services to Leeds, Newcastle and Edinburgh, and the Hertford Loop services from Moorgate to Hertford North, Stevenage and Letchworth Garden City. GTR has now taken over GN Suburban and Hertford North services, and Stagecoach-Virgin has taken over East Coast services. GN Suburban services will be converted to operate via the Thameslink route to destinations in Kent, Sussex and Surrey from 2018.

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Figure 4.4: East Coast Main Line Route Map

4.2.1 East Coast Main Line Long Distance The development objectives targeted for the East Coast Main Line Long Distance are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth; and  supporting the environment and sustainability. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the East Coast Main Line Long Distance are:  concern about possible reduction of long distance service calls at Stevenage because of timetable pressures – Stevenage is an economic hub with significant employment growth planned and requires long distance rail connections that reflect this;  concern about the condition of Stevenage Station, in particular the impression it gives to visitors as the gateway to the county from long distance services. Given the above issues, the conditional outputs identified for the East Coast Main Line Long Distance are to:  maintain or improve the level of service for long distance services and improve the range of directly-served destinations including but not limited to Newcastle, Edinburgh, Durham, York and Leeds.

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The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.5. Figure 4.5: East Coast Mainline Long Distance Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: New East Coast Franchise –Delivered – CP5 (2014-2019) The new East Coast franchise was awarded to Stagecoach-Virgin (InterCity Railways) from 1st March 2015. More services have been promised, but not from Stevenage. A timetable review will take place in 2019/20 and the current position is to maintain the existing 2tph to the north, with 1tph to Newcastle and the other in alternate hours running to Leeds or Lincoln. However, this is not a committed proposal and there remains the risk that calls at Stevenage will be reduced in favour of running more fast trains. The County Council will continue to lobby to maintain or improve the level of long distance stops at Stevenage and to develop Stevenage as a hub station for both local and long distance services, supporting the town’s stature in the county and increasing the justification for station calls. InterCity Express Programme (IEP) – Committed – CP5 (2014-2019) IEP replaces the existing intercity rolling stock with new electric and hybrid trains. It delivers increased capacity with an additional 94 seats per train which represents a 16% increase on long distance services. It does not deliver increased route capacity. It should also provide higher quality trains with greater user satisfaction, which will lead to fewer delays due to more reliable trains. While IEP delivers some benefits in terms of additional seat capacity, this project does not deliver more connections from Stevenage to the north, although there may be an opportunity to influence the timetable. Signalling enhancements (European Rail Traffic Management System – ERTMS) – Committed – CP5 (2014-2019)–CP6 (2019-2024) Network Rail is installing cab signalling (ERTMS) on the ECML as a committed renewal project (with full implementation between Kings Cross and Doncaster by 2020). This should provide some increased capacity by allowing more trains to run on the tracks. It is expected to relieve key capacity constraints such as the Welwyn Viaduct and lead to improved reliability and reduced maintenance costs.

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The County Council will press Network Rail to ensure that the ERTMS project maximises the ability of long distance services to call at Stevenage. This is a key opportunity to address the concerns over long distance calls. HS2 Phase 2 (to Manchester and Leeds) released capacity – Planned (under discussion) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) HS2 Phase 2 (due for implementation in 2033) will deliver a new high speed route to Leeds with services running on to the classic network to York, Newcastle and stations in Scotland.

Following this, ECML services would be reorganised and it is anticipated that long distance trains would then be able to call more frequently at Stevenage. For this reason the County Council will continue to make the case for better long distance connections from Stevenage on the ECML. The potential exists to maintain direct connections to Leeds and York and provide new direct connections to Lincoln, Newcastle and Edinburgh. As part of this, Stevenage station should be upgraded and developed into a hub station. This would improve the perception of the county given to visitors on long distance services and provide improved connections on to local services.

4.2.2 Great Northern Suburban (including Hitchin to Cambridge) The development objectives targeted for the East Coast Main Line Great Northern Suburban are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth;  supporting the environment and sustainability; and

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 supporting population growth. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the East Coast Main Line Great Northern Suburban are:  there are a number of capacity constraints on the line;  overcrowding on services from Welwyn Garden City;  relatively low service frequencies at some stations compared to similar size stations in Hertfordshire, for example 6tph from Hatfield to London (compared to 10+ at St Albans, Harpenden, Stevenage);  low service frequencies to Cambridge from across the county;  access to the ECML from the Hitchin to Cambridge Line is seen as a key issue for Cambridgeshire;  expected strong growth in rail driven by heavy congestion on the A1(M), a large and growing population centre at Stevenage, +27% employment growth in Welwyn Hatfield by 2031 and +13% in Stevenage; and  as a result of this growth demand to Moorgate is forecast to be 104% of capacity by 2031. Given the above issues, the conditional outputs identified for the East Coast Main Line Great Northern Suburban are to:  address constraints to enable capacity increases to accommodate forecast demand;  provide sufficient capacity for forecast demand at Welwyn Garden City;  provide sufficient capacity for forecast demand at local employment growth areas;  provide sufficient capacity for forecast demand to London;  increase frequencies to London from Hatfield and Potters Bar;  provide sufficient capacity for forecast demand on the Hitchin to Cambridge Line; and  ensure that there is an adequate level of service on the Hitchin to Cambridge Line. The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.6.

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Figure 4.6: East Coast Mainline Great Northern Suburban Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: Thameslink Programme (2018) – Committed – CP5 (2014-2019) The Thameslink Programme is committed and has had a phased delivery with the final phase, Key Output 2, due to be fully delivered in 2018. This will lead to significantly increased capacity through longer and higher capacity rolling stock with 8 or 12 coaches. It will also provide increased frequencies (20 services from Stevenage to London 0700-0959, currently 14) and improved connections (extended to City Thameslink, London Bridge, Kent, Sussex and Surrey).

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The Thameslink project will also support development of the Stevenage Hub by increasing services / connections at the station. The County Council will continue to strongly support implementation of this project. Signalling enhancements (European Rail Traffic Management System - ERTMS) – Committed – CP5 (2014-2019) – CP6 (2019-2024) Network Rail is installing cab signalling (ERTMS) on the ECML as a committed renewal project. This may provide some increased capacity by allowing more trains to run on the tracks. This could help to relieve key capacity constraints such as the Welwyn Viaduct and will lead to improved reliability and reduced maintenance costs. This increase in capacity will benefit Great Northern as well as long distance services.

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Improve Semi-fast Thameslink Services – Other – CP6 (2019 -2024) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) This additional proposed intervention would deliver further increased frequencies at key stations such as Hatfield and Welwyn Garden City, based on anticipated passenger volume growth after introduction of the main service upgrade in 2018. The County Council will press for this and the inclusion of an improved service specification on the tender documents for the new Thameslink franchise, which will start in 2021. While some linespeed increases (through the removal of speed restrictions) and level crossing closures are planned between Hitchin and Cambridge the main improvement on this line (the Hitchin flyover) has already been delivered, and there are only modest further gains to be delivered. No further interventions for Hitchin-Cambridge are therefore being recommended in this strategy. HS2 Phase 2 (to Manchester and Leeds) released capacity – Planned (under discussion) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) HS2 Phase 2 (due for implementation in 2033) will deliver a new high speed route to Leeds with services running on to the classic network to York, Newcastle and stations in Scotland. Following this, ECML long distance services would be reorganised and it is anticipated that as well as additional calls being potentially offered at Stevenage, Great Northern Services could also benefit from released capacity on services to London.

4.2.3 Hertford Loop The development objectives targeted for the Hertford Loop are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth;  supporting the environment and sustainability; and  supporting population growth. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the East Coast Main Line Hertford Loop are:  capacity constraints because of the two track railway on this route, and further disruptions caused by freight, all of which uses the Hertford Loop as an alternative to the ECML, and main line passenger train diversions when the ECML is blocked between Stevenage and Bounds Green;  slower journey times to London, for example 43 minutes from Hertford North, than from comparable stations such as Welwyn Garden City and St Albans (21 and 17 minutes respectively);  significant population growth of +18% in East Herts and +15% in Broxbourne by 2031; and  as a result of this growth there is forecast overcrowding of up to 104% into London by 2031. Given the above issues, the conditional outputs identified for the East Coast Main Line Great Hertford Loop are to:

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

 address constraints to enable capacity increases to accommodate forecast demand;  provide sufficient capacity for forecast demand to London;  provide sufficient capacity for forecast demand to Moorgate on the Hertford Loop; and  reduce journey times to London from stations such as Hertford North and Cuffley. The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.7. Figure 4.7: East Coast Mainline Hertford Loop Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: Updated rolling stock and timetable alterations (2018) – Committed – CP5 (2014-2019) Govia Thameslink Railway (GTR - the new Thameslink franchisee) has committed to provide new rolling stock for the Hertford Loop to replace the current life expired fleet. This will provide increased capacity and be of a higher quality. The proposal is for 25 new 6-carriage trains to be introduced by 2018. GTR will also deliver increased peak frequencies to Moorgate benefiting from the 6-tracking between Alexandra Palace and Finsbury Park as well as 2tph all day extended from Hertford North to Stevenage – currently only 1 train per hour off peak makes this journey (2tph in the peak). This delivers better main line connections to the north from Hertford. The County Council support these improvements. Stevenage turnback platform – Committed – CP5 (2014-2019) Related to the previous scheme, the committed Stevenage turnback platform will deliver improved performance and reliability of Hertford Loop services by

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

making them independent of the ECML, and allow two Hertford loop trains per hour to be extended to Stevenage for the whole day. As a result no Hertford Loop services will operate north of Stevenage (currently some run on to Letchworth Garden City). The County Council will lobby to ensure connections at Stevenage will be improved to minimise interchange time for passengers from the Hertford Loop with onward journeys to Letchworth Garden City and beyond. Benefits include the provision of additional peak capacity into Kings Cross and Moorgate and the creation of better links between Hertford and ECML destinations such as Peterborough, Leeds and Newcastle. The turnback platform will also help to develop the role of Stevenage as a hub station through the provision of new connecting services. The County Council therefore supports this scheme as a key improvement to the ECML in the county. Diversion planning and freight review – Other – CP5 (2014-2019) Currently, all ECML freight services run via the Hertford Loop to avoid the capacity constraints on the ECML over the Welwyn viaduct. In times of operational disruption on the main line passenger services are diverted via Hertford North as well. This proposed intervention is for a more robust plan to review freight services and how they operate on the Hertford Loop, to encourage Freight Operating Companies (FOCs) to keep these services out of the peak period to maximise capacity for passenger services. The County Council is committed to encouraging freight to move by rail, and will look at ways in which both policy objectives can be achieved. The County Council will also institute a review of how passenger services are diverted from the ECML on to the Hertford Loop and engage with Network Rail and TOCs to examine ways in which the consequent disruption of the normal passenger service can be minimised. An option to divert some services from Moorgate to Kings Cross was considered by the study team, in the light of statements that the Moorgate line was already operating at capacity. However the review has concluded that as a maximum of 12 services run per hour into Moorgate with a theoretical maximum capacity of 16 services per hour and other constraints apply north of Finsbury Park, this option would not deliver material benefits, especially as Moorgate provides a better destination for most passengers. Ongoing improvements to interchanges at Finsbury Park and the delivery of Thameslink mean that from 2018 passengers from the Hertford Loop will have improved connectivity to a range of destinations to the south of London. Journey time and capacity improvements (service frequencies and infrastructure) The Hertford Loop Metro - – Other – CP6 (2019 -2024) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) To build on the Stevenage turnback platform, this intervention is additional to committed or planned industry schemes. It aims to provide centre turnback platforms at Hertford North and Gordon Hill to reduce timetabling conflicts created by terminating services at Hertford North. Currently southbound services from the existing bay platform have to cross over both northbound and southbound lines, limiting other train movements. Centre turnbacks would deliver a higher frequency service with more timetable flexibility reducing journey times

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

and increasing capacity by introducing semi-fast limited stop services on the Hertford Loop. However it should be noted that some stakeholders have indicated that this should not be achieved at the cost of reduced service frequency at stations in the London area. The improvement would provide a substantially better service from Hertfordshire stations. This improved service could be marketed as the Hertford Loop Metro, and would build on the provision of new rolling stock in 2018. It would aim to deliver TfL Overground standard service (e.g. 4tph with station quality improvements). An early part of this intervention will be to work closely with GTR to conduct an independent timetable study to examine what services could be delivered if the enhanced infrastructure was provided.

4.2.4 East Coast Main Line Strategic Priorities Significant investment in committed schemes, including Thameslink and GTR’s rolling stock replacement programme, already provides the potential for a step- change in capacity and frequencies on GN suburban and Hertford Loop, with particular benefit for areas with high forecast population and employment growth such as Welwyn Garden City. Continuing engagement with GTR and Network Rail is essential to ensure that the benefits to Hertfordshire are delivered. The strategic priorities identified for the East Coast Main Line are presented below:  TOP PRIORITY - Short term: secure better long distance connections from Stevenage to the north from the new Intercity Trains franchise and progress comprehensive development of Stevenage Transport Hub to support Stevenage’s increasing importance as a growing population and employment centre, and its enhanced role as an interchange hub.  TOP PRIORITY - Medium-long term: further build on the GTR plans by promoting service improvements (capacity, frequency, speed) through development of ‘Hertford Loop Metro’ to take advantage of the new Stevenage turnback platforms and new rolling stock, and develop Stevenage as a transport hub.  Long term: HS2 Phase 2 will relieve capacity pressure on the ECML from 2033 onwards. The County council will develop plans and lobby for increased long distance stops at Stevenage and increased local service frequency and capacity at other key stations.

4.3 Midland Main Line The route covered under the Midland Main Line strategy area is shown in Figure 4.8. The Midland Main Line includes:  Thameslink Suburban services from Bedford, Luton and St Albans to Gatwick Airport, Brighton, Sevenoaks and other Kent, Sussex and Surrey destinations, which are due to be significantly upgraded in 2018; and  East Midlands Trains Long Distance services from St Pancras to Corby, Nottingham, Derby and Sheffield.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Figure 4.8: Midland Main Line Route Map

4.3.1 Midland Main Line East Midlands Long Distance The development objectives targeted for the Midland Main Line East Midlands Long Distance are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth; and  supporting the environment and sustainability. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the Midland Main Line East Midlands Long Distance are:  the lack of connections to the Midlands and North from Hertfordshire in this corridor, for example no East Midlands Trains services currently stop at Hertfordshire stations (instead Luton and Luton Airport Parkway are served); and  forecast overcrowding of up to 133% on GTR services to London St Pancras by 2031. Given the above issues, the conditional outputs identified for the Midland Main Line East Midlands Long Distance are to:  introduce long distance stops in Hertfordshire to provide connections to Midlands / North; and  provide sufficient capacity for forecast long distance demand to London. The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.9.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Figure 4.9: Midland Main Line East Midlands Long Distance Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: MML improvements (2017-2019) – Committed – CP5 (2014-2019) The Midland Main Line is set to undergo investment that could indirectly impact on Hertfordshire by releasing potential capacity on suburban services due to passengers transferring to long distance services including via:  Electrification north of Bedford leading to faster long distance services for the East Midlands trains with the introduction of 11 x 23m trains (currently 5/7 x 23m).  Linespeed enhancements on sections of the route delivering further reductions in main line journey times, north of Bedford. Capacity enhancements (including restoration of some of the former four track sections north of Bedford) potentially allowing more through running of new electric services. As discussed above the combined impact of these improvements on Hertfordshire could be a release of some capacity on suburban services through passengers transferring to long distance services. Long distance stops at St Albans – Other (possible) – CP6 (2019 -2024) This additional proposed intervention would deliver improved connections by providing some long distance services from St Albans, preferably on alternate Sheffield and Nottingham services. Due to strong competition from existing stops at Luton, Luton Airport Parkway and Bedford and the limited number of available paths, the County Council will have to lobby hard for this, as not all stakeholders, particularly neighbouring authorities, would support this intervention. HS2 Phase 2 (to Manchester and Leeds) released capacity – Planned (under discussion) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) If HS2 Phase 2 is delivered as planned by 2033, some high speed long distance services to Nottingham and Sheffield might divert to HS2 (either as direct services or by better connections at Toton), potentially allowing more services to stop at St Albans. Hertfordshire should lobby for this as a local dividend of HS2. This would potentially deliver better direct connections to destinations to the north such as Sheffield, Nottingham and Leicester. While an interim solution might be to stop the service to Corby at St Albans, this would be of only limited value as travel to the East Midlands would still require a

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

further change. For this reason the Corby option has not been progressed within this strategy.

4.3.2 Midland Main Line Thameslink Suburban The development objectives targeted for the Midland Main Line Thameslink Suburban are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth;  supporting the environment and sustainability; and  supporting population growth. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the Midland Main Line Thameslink Suburban are:  crowding impacts on suburban services as a result of overspill from overcrowding on longer distance Thameslink services to Gatwick Airport and Brighton;  lower frequencies at some stations, for example 6tph from Elstree & Borehamwood to London compared to >10 at Harpenden and St Albans;  road congestion on the M1 motorway;  forecast employment growth of +23% in St Albans and +9% in Hertsmere by 2031; and  forecast population growth of +18% in St Albans and +20% in Hertsmere by 2031. Given the above issues, the conditional outputs identified for the Midland Main Line Thameslink Suburban are to:  address constraints to enable capacity increases to accommodate forecast demand;  provide sufficient capacity for forecast demand at local employment growth areas; and  increase frequencies to London from Elstree and Radlett. The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.10.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Figure 4.10: Midland Main Line Thameslink Suburban Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: Thameslink Programme (2018) – Committed – CP5 (2014-2019) When fully delivered in 2018 the Thameslink Programme will significantly increase capacity through longer trains (many more at 12 car) and higher capacity rolling stock. It will also deliver increased frequencies (13tph from St Albans to London, currently 10) and improved connections (through extension of existing services to a further 100 stations in Kent, Surrey and Sussex). However, the East Midlands Route Study has acknowledged that there will be standing passengers above the 20 minute journey time threshold due to the updated rolling stock being designed to carry a higher proportion of standing passengers. The County Council will continue to strongly support implementation of this project. Extension of Thameslink services – Other (possible) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) Electrification would allow extension of some Thameslink direct services from Bedford to Wellingborough, Kettering, Corby and potentially beyond. This would help to relieve capacity pressure on long distance services north of Hertfordshire and provide some improvement to connections to the East Midlands and destinations to the North such as Nottingham, Leicester and Sheffield. It would also open up a wider employment catchment for Hertfordshire by providing better transport options for workers from this area. However there is a risk that trains could arrive full at Hertfordshire stations. The County Council is supportive of any such proposal subject to detailed capacity analysis being undertaken, but not as a replacement for its strategy introducing long distance services to the East Midlands at St Albans. HS2 Phase 2 (to Manchester and Leeds) released capacity – Planned (under discussion) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) If HS2 Phase 2 is delivered as planned by 2033, some high speed long distance services to Nottingham and Sheffield might divert to HS2 (either as direct services or by better connections at Toton), potentially allowing more services to stop at St Albans. The County Council will support this, as it could deliver increased capacity for suburban services through reducing main line high speed train paths.

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4.3.3 Midland Main Line Strategic Priorities Committed schemes will already provide significant additional capacity, frequencies and connections through full Thameslink service introduction and MML electrification, with new rolling stock and provision for train lengthening. The strategic priorities identified for the Midland Main Line are presented below:  TOP PRIORITY - Short term: improve connections to key destinations such as Sheffield and Nottingham following completion of electrification, by lobbying for the introduction of stops in long distance services at St Albans  Medium term: further improve connections to key destinations in the East Midlands and the north following the extension of electrification beyond Sheffield and Nottingham, and support the extension of Thameslink services  Long term: HS2 Phase 2 may relieve capacity pressure from 2033 onwards and enhanced long distance stops at St Albans and increased capacity at other key stations as part of the post HS2 timetable development process will be lobbied for

4.4 West Coast Main Line The route covered under the West Coast Main Line strategy area is shown in Figure 4.11. This includes Long Distance services from Euston to the West Midlands, Manchester, Liverpool, Preston and Scotland, and suburban services between Euston and Milton Keynes, Northampton, Rugby and the West Midlands. Figure 4.11: West Coast Main Line Route Map

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4.4.1 West Coast Main Line Long Distance The development objectives targeted for the West Coast Main Line Long Distance are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth; and  supporting the environment and sustainability. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the West Coast Main Line Long Distance are:  the lack of long distance connections to destinations in the north; and  the lack of long distance services stopping at Watford Junction in the peak periods and the limited services from Watford Junction to Birmingham in the off peak (only 1tph). The conditional output identified for the West Coast Main Line Long Distance is to:  improve connections between Watford Junction and important long distance destinations to the north including Manchester and Liverpool. The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.12. Figure 4.12: West Coast Main Line Long Distance Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: Watford Junction as interchange hub – Other (possible) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) Due to its strategic position on the network and the current and possible interchange opportunities (including Croxley link, the possible extension of Bakerloo line services, the Abbey Line and London Overground) this proposed intervention is to turn Watford Junction into a major interchange hub. This builds on the station’s current interchange possibilities and provides a much better range of passenger facilities. In turn this will provide a greater incentive for TOCs to stop services at the station, and will encourage passenger demand. This focus on the station as a transport hub could also be a catalyst for development around the station to support a sustainable level of housing and jobs growth. Following the HS2 service changes this would make Watford Junction a key interchange between regional and long distance services and deliver increased capacity to cater for the range of destinations that will be served.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

HS2 Phase 1 (to Birmingham) Released Capacity – Planned (under discussion) - CP7+ (2024 onwards) If HS2 Phase 1 is delivered as planned, long distance services to Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Preston and Glasgow would all be diverted to the new route. Following this WCML services would be reorganised and it is anticipated that trains would then be dedicated to serve more regional stations. This provides the ability for services to respond to demand and stop at Watford Junction to interchange passengers and feed the local area. For this reason the County Council will continue to make the case for Watford Junction as a calling point on all the revised main line services.

4.4.2 West Coast Main Line Suburban The development objectives targeted for the West Coast Main Line Suburban are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth;  supporting the environment and sustainability; and  supporting population growth. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the West Coast Main Line Suburban are:  capacity constraints caused by the mix of high speed, stopping and freight services, for example most London Midland services have had to run on the slow lines following route modernisation;  road congestion on the M1 and M25 motorways;  significant growth in the Watford area to 2031, for example +20% population growth in Watford and Three Rivers, and jobs growth of +16% in Watford and +11% in Three Rivers; and  as a result of this growth there is forecast overcrowding of up to 107% of capacity into London by 2031. Given the above issues, the conditional outputs identified for the West Coast Main Line Suburban are to:  address constraints to enable capacity increases to accommodate forecast demand;  provide sufficient capacity for forecast demand for suburban and London Overground services at Watford; and  provide sufficient capacity for forecast demand to London. The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.13.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Figure 4.13: West Coast Main Line Suburban Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: Crossrail 1 to WCML link –Planned (under DfT review) – CP6 (2019 -2024) The Crossrail 1 project is under construction, linking Brentwood and Woolwich to Reading via central London. A number of services are currently intended to turn back at Old Oak Common in West London, to avoid overloading the Great Western Main Line. A recent DfT proposal is to extend Crossrail 1 services to Tring, via the WCML, with stops in Hertfordshire including Watford Junction and Hemel Hempstead. This would reduce capacity issues at Euston while the station is partially closed for HS2 rebuilding works, and also reduce the current underground transfer congestion at Euston station. Other benefits include providing increased connections to a range of destinations in Central London, Kent and Essex, and providing a more productive use for those trains currently turning back at Old Oak Common. This presents a major opportunity to significantly enhance the range of destinations served by Watford Junction, and to build on its current status as a key interchange point between rail corridors. Provision of better links to central London via Crossrail 1 would establish the case for development of the Watford Transport Hub. For these reasons and because, as a scheme of national importance, funding would largely be secured from DfT budgets, the County Council strongly support the proposed extension, and provide encouragement to it by developing the plans to create a Watford Transport Hub at Watford Junction station (see below). Watford Junction as interchange hub – Other (possible) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) Due to its strategic position on the network and significant population and jobs growth in the area, this proposed intervention is to develop Watford Junction station into a major interchange hub by substantially improving the current passenger environment, and potentially relocating the station buildings to provide better modal interchange facilities. It is vital that the station is improved to accommodate increased passenger activity, as the current station cannot continue

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

to cater for continued growth and additional lines into Watford without some form of station intervention, as highlighted in an ongoing capacity study being conducted by Network Rail. These improvements would make Watford Junction a key interchange between local, regional and long distance rail services and bus and coach services, and deliver increased capacity to cater for the range of destinations that will be served. The objective would be to make Watford Junction a destination of choice for passengers wishing to change (in much the same way as Network Rail and Reading Borough Council have transformed Reading station recently). HS2 Phase 1 (to Birmingham) Released Capacity – Planned (under discussion) – CP7+ (2024 onwards) If HS2 Phase 1 is delivered as planned there will be increased capacity through service enhancements from Hertfordshire stations to Euston (e.g. 8tph from Berkhamsted (currently 4tph) and 6tph from Hemel Hempstead (currently 4tph) using capacity released by the transfer of long distance services to HS2. However, this is dependent on capacity enhancements within Watford Junction station as highlighted in an ongoing capacity study being carried out by Network Rail. For this reason the County Council will lobby to ensure the best use is made of the released capacity to serve Hertfordshire stations.

4.4.3 West Coast Main Line Strategic Priorities The strategic priorities identified for the West Coast Main Line are presented below:  TOP PRIORITY - Short term: promote and endorse the case for extension of Crossrail 1 services to Watford Junction and Tring, to build the status of Watford Junction as an Interchange Hub, and delivering better through journey access to central London. This will be built on the need for alternative passenger facilities while Euston station is partially shut during HS2 rebuilding work from 2020 onwards.  Long term: Develop plans with Network Rail for the long term redevelopment of Watford Junction into a major interchange hub. Lobby for all regional long distance services to stop at Watford after the introduction of HS2 Phase 1, by offering better interchange facilities for local, Crossrail and LUL services to central London.

4.5 London to Aylesbury Line (including underground/overground lines) The rail lines covered under the London to Aylesbury Line strategy area are shown in Figure 4.14. This includes the Chiltern line from Marylebone to Aylesbury, Oxford (from 2016), Banbury and Birmingham, and London Underground Services from Aldgate and Baker Street to Amersham, and from 2018 the Croxley Rail Link to Watford Junction. Overground services run from Euston to Watford Junction (via the ‘DC Lines’), and this line is currently also served, as far as Harrow, by LUL Bakerloo line services.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Figure 4.14: London to Aylesbury Line Route Map

4.5.1 Chiltern Services Chiltern services only call at two stations in Hertfordshire: Chorleywood and Rickmansworth. The development objectives targeted for the London to Aylesbury Line Chiltern Services are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth;  supporting the environment and sustainability; and  supporting population growth The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the London to Aylesbury Line Chiltern Service are:  capacity constraints caused by joint running on a double track section with London Underground services and short platforms that cannot accommodate 9-car trains;  poor local connections between Watford and Chorleywood and stations to the north;  forecast population growth in Aylesbury of +19% by 2031; and  as a result of this growth there is forecast overcrowding into London Marylebone of up to 100% by 2031, with a capacity gap of 1200 seats. Given the above issues, the conditional outputs identified for the London to Aylesbury Line Chiltern Services are to:

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

 address constraints to enable capacity increases to accommodate forecast demand; and  provide sufficient capacity for forecast demand to London. The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.15. Figure 4.15: London to Aylesbury Line Chiltern Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: Longer trains and higher capacity rolling stock – Other (possible) – CP6 (2019 -2024) This proposed intervention for longer trains and higher capacity rolling stock could be specified as part of the new Chiltern franchise requirement in 2021. This would deliver increased capacity on the line with no additional services required. The County Council will start discussions with DfT (and the incumbent TOC) to identify what should be included in the new tender as a firm contractual requirement. Chiltern Aylesbury to Watford service – Other (possible) – CP6 (2019 -2024) A new Chiltern heavy rail diesel service could be run between Aylesbury and Watford with the delivery of the Croxley Rail Link. The additional infrastructure for this service already exists in the form of the Amersham Chord, and could be upgraded at minimal cost. This would deliver new direct destinations from Watford including Amersham, Wendover, Stoke Mandeville and Aylesbury, and enhance the status of Watford Junction as an interchange hub. A timetable review to identify available capacity north of Moor Park would be required to outline the sort of service that could be offered within the existing route capacity and the LUL Croxley Link service specification.

4.5.2 Croxley Rail Link and Underground/Overground Services London Underground Metropolitan Line services currently run into their own station in Watford. By 2018 the Croxley Link should divert some or all of these services to Watford Junction via Watford High Street station. This will provide

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much better connections, and enhance the status of Watford Junction station as an interchange hub. The development objectives targeted for the London to Aylesbury Line Croxley Rail Link & London Underground Service are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth;  supporting the environment and sustainability; and  supporting population growth. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the London to Aylesbury Line are:  poor local connections from Watford, for example to Amersham. The conditional output identified for the London to Aylesbury Line Croxley Rail Link & London Underground Service is to:  improve connections between Watford and local destinations such as Amersham or Chesham. The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.16. Figure 4.16: London to Aylesbury Line Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: Croxley Rail Link (2018) – Committed – CP5 (2014-2019) When fully delivered in 2018 the Croxley Rail Link will deliver increased regional connections to the North and an alternative route to North West and Central London with up to 6tph. It also provides improved east-west public transport connections for Watford and Croxley Green, capacity alleviation at Euston through the diversion of some passengers to Baker Street and it will enhance Watford Junction’s status as a key interchange hub. It is likely to be very heavily used for passengers travelling to and from major events at Wembley Stadium. The County Council continue to support the delivery of this important scheme. Amersham Chord – Other (possible) – CP6 (2019 -2024) This proposed intervention is for the use of an existing chord to run a new direct electric service to Amersham via Rickmansworth. The electrified infrastructure for this service already exists, and could be upgraded at minimal cost. As outlined above this would deliver new direct destinations from Watford including to

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Amersham, Wendover, Stoke Mandeville and Aylesbury, and enhance the status of Watford Junction as an interchange hub. Bakerloo Line/Overground enhancements – Planned – CP7+ (2024 onwards) The re-introduction of Bakerloo line services from Harrow to Watford Junction by 2026 (they were withdrawn in 1982) is currently being considered by TfL, and would, if delivered, ease capacity constraints on WCML suburban services by providing more services and give better access to regional centres. It would also provide increased connections from Watford Junction to destinations in Central London as well as a considerable frequency uplift and additional through services from Bushey and Carpenders Park. Six services per hour could be offered in place of the current 3tph, with no infrastructure work needed other than reinstatement of the fourth rail equipment. However, TfL have stated that the extension of the Bakerloo line north of Harrow to Watford is an upgrade that is unlikely to have a good business case because demand levels are relatively low on the route section served. A more economical solution, in their view, would be to increase the frequency of the Overground service on this route to 4 tph, which TfL is currently investigating. Watford Junction as interchange hub – Other – CP7+ (2024 onwards) Due to its strategic position on the network and significant local growth forecast, this proposed intervention is to turn Watford Junction into a major interchange hub post-HS2 to exploit released capacity and main line service stops. This would make Watford Junction a key interchange between regional and long distance services and deliver increased capacity to cater for the range of destinations that will be served.

4.5.3 London to Aylesbury Line (Underground/Overground) Strategic Priorities The strategic priorities identified for the London to Aylesbury Line are presented below:  TOP PRIORITY - Short term: Continue to promote the implementation of the Croxley Rail Link project to deliver additional capacity and enhanced access to Watford town centre and the Watford Interchange Hub.  Medium term: To secure capacity improvements, the County Council will work with DfT to secure commitments for the inclusion of longer trains and higher capacity rolling stock in the next Chiltern franchise (2021).  Medium term: To improve local connections and exploit Watford growth hub, develop plans for a future Aylesbury-Watford Chiltern diesel service via a reinstated Amersham Chord, which would maximise journey opportunities to the north of Watford.  Medium term: To improve local connections and exploit the potential for the Watford Interchange hub, the County Council will also press TfL to use the Amersham chord to deliver direct services from Watford to Amersham via London Underground on the Croxley Rail Link. and also improve service frequency either via the extension of the Bakerloo Line or increasing the frequency of Overground services

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

4.6 Orbital (East – West) Movement Within the County The route covered under the Orbital (East-West) Movement strategy area is shown in Figure 4.17. This includes the Abbey Line from Watford Junction to St Albans Abbey, and Other Orbital Movements which are currently not catered for. While there were other heavy rail routes in the past which ran broadly east-west, many have closed and a lot have been converted to longer distance cycle routes. Some redevelopment has occurred on the alignments. A map showing these disused rail lines can be found in Appendix B. Figure 4.17: Orbital (East-West) Movement Route Map

4.6.1 Abbey Line The Abbey line is a single track branch line, electrified in 1988, and operated with a captive train set independent of main line operations. An option to convert the line to light rail operation was investigated in co-operation with DfT in 2013. This concluded that due to various constraints it was not possible to further pursue this option at that time The development objectives targeted for the Orbital (East-West Movement) Abbey Line are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth;  supporting the environment and sustainability; and  supporting population growth. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the Orbital (East-West Movement) Abbey Line are:  physical constraints on the line e.g. single line with no passing loop;

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

 the poor service frequency, which does not connect with main line services (because of route constraints the train service runs at asymmetric times of every 45 minutes until 10pm);  the lack of through services, forcing passengers to change at Watford Junction and St Albans; and  extreme underutilisation (the six branch stations are in the eight least used stations in the county). Given the above issues, the conditional outputs identified for the Orbital (East- West Movement) Abbey Line are to:  address physical constraints on the line;  improve connections and frequency from all stations on the Abbey Line to main line services at Watford Junction and St Albans City; and  encourage increased use of the Abbey Line to help accommodate population growth. The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.18. It should be noted that a number of more complex schemes were considered in the development of the Strategy but given the significant existing issues with the line were deemed to be beyond the scope of this Strategy. One such option was the extension of the proposed Crossrail 1 service to St Albans Abbey (see the West Coast Main Line section 4.4). This was not pursued partly because of the difficulty of extending the existing stations to 8 or 12 car operation and partly because without a passing loop at Bricket Wood no improvement would be delivered over the current services. A more ambitious long term vision for the Abbey Line, including options not pursued here, and wider east-west movements in the county will be addressed in the LTP4 Vision. Figure 4.18: Orbital (East-West Movement) Abbey Line Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: Later running and revised stopping patterns – Other (possible) – CP5 (2014- 2019) Services cannot currently run through to London due to a lack of available paths and the track layout at Watford Junction (which has recently been revised by Network Rail). This means the short term focus needs to be on other possible

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

enhancements such as the provision of later running services (beyond 10pm) to enhance usefulness and the introduction of ‘skip-stop’ services to enable enhanced frequencies and connectivity from key stations (closing three stations would allow the introduction of a 30 minute interval service). Passing loop at Bricket Wood to increase services – Other (possible) – CP7+ (2019 -2024) Most long term rail-based solutions for the line would require the addition of a passing loop to increase capacity by allowing a 30 minute interval service (currently 1 every 45 minutes) on clockface timings. This would significantly improve connections and produce a memorable timetable. However, it is unlikely to be considered by funders as a priority, as it would require provision of two train sets and train crew in place of the current one, making it difficult to achieve a favourable business case. Non Heavy-Rail Rapid Transit solution – Other (possible) – CP7+ (2019 - 2024) Survey data4 suggests that the Abbey Line carries approximately 1700 passengers on an average weekday, with the busiest service (the 8:01 arrival at Watford Junction) carrying approximately 150 passengers. Even accounting for growth and supressed demand due to the service frequency, this suggests that an alternative technology to heavy rail would be more appropriate for the Abbey Line, as shown in the ‘Technology Choice Framework’ in Figure 4.19. Figure 4.19: Technology Choice Framework

Indicative peak Unit carrying Implementation System life capacity / hour capacity Timeframe (years) Transport Mode (passengers) (passengers)

Regular Buses Short 500 – 2,000 8 - 14 40 - 120

Light Rapid Transit Medium / long 5,000 – 10,000 25 - 50 400 - 800 (LRT)

Heavy Rail Long 20,000 – 60,000 25 - 50 2,000 – 3,500

Technology could be either bus or light rail based and enable higher frequencies and onward connections into the centres of Watford (from the Watford Interchange Hub) and St Albans (to St Albans City to connect with potential new long distance stops). While the previous scheme in 2013 was not pursued due to various constraints, this still appears to represent the most viable development prospect for what is at present a poorly performing transport asset. The business case for this type of solution is likely to be much stronger than for any heavy rail options.

Light rail could also open the prospect, if successful, of further light rail development within the county.

4 Source: Surveys carried out for HCC by The Railway Consultancy Ltd, November 2008.

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4.6.2 Other Orbital Movements A number of additional east-west links currently exist in the county in the form of rail alignments that have been converted to long distance cycle routes, with some development having taken place on these routes. The potential for the reintroduction of these links, or the establishment of new links, and the technology which should be used, is at present unclear. Much work needs to be done, including through the LTP4 Vision work, to establish whether sufficient demand exists or can be generated by new routes. However the creation of orbital routes remains a strong priority for the county to overcome current weaknesses in transport infrastructure, including congestion on orbital routes and key growth expected along these corridors. The Abbey line from Watford to St Albans provides a highly appropriate opportunity to develop a radical solution that operates at lower costs and attracts many more users than are attracted by the current heavy rail or bus services. At the moment the heavy rail link is a serious underperformer, but if proposals can be developed to transform it into a strategic link which offers better urban connections at each end, it would provide the first stage of a wider application of the selected technology to more orbital routes. To be successful the chosen technology and transport solution would have to be affordable, offer an attractive journey pattern, and meet real and demonstrable transport needs. The development objectives targeted for the Orbital (East-West Movement): Other Movements are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth;  supporting the environment and sustainability; and  supporting population growth. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for the Orbital (East-West Movement): Other Movements are:  the lack of wider east-west rail travel opportunities, for example Stevenage to Watford takes a minimum of 64 minutes by rail travelling via London Kings Cross and Euston, as opposed to 38 minutes by car – assuming limited congestion; and  road congestion (including but not limited to the M25, A1(M), A414), particularly through towns.  There are east-west accessibility gaps (no direct rail services) around London and the South East including:  Great Western Line to Reading, Oxford and other locations;  c2c services from Fenchurch Street to Southend; and  Greater Anglia services to Norwich, Ipswich and Colchester. Given the above issues, the conditional outputs identified for the Orbital (East- West Movement): Other Movements are to:  develop options for east-west movement within Hertfordshire; and  develop options to provide for east-west rail movement beyond Hertfordshire.

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The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.20. Figure 4.20: Orbital (East-West Movement) Other Movements Interventions

The interventions in the table above are described in more detail below: East-West bus/coach service between key stations – Other (possible) – CP5 (2014-2019) A short term intervention for the issue of east-west connectivity is for the provision of a dedicated coach service between key Hertfordshire stations. This could ‘infill’ east-west gaps on the rail network such as between St Albans and Hatfield and between Stevenage and Bishops Stortford. It also has the potential to build up traffic flows towards the level where a business case for a longer term rapid transit (BRT/LRT) solution could be demonstrated. This is, however, a short term intervention and not without risks. Some services already exist and are well used despite being unreliable at peak times. Further passenger increases will be difficult to achieve without new dedicated bus infrastructure to ensure reliability and shorter journey times. Working with TOCs, stronger promotion of these services and inclusion of them in through-ticketing schemes (building on PlusBus) could also assist in building up the core business on these routes. The County Council will work with GTR to include services within the National Rail GB Timetable and demonstrate whether there is potential that could justify development of more ambitious schemes. East-West Rail Central Section – Other (under consideration) - CP7+ (2019 - 2024) East West Rail (EWR) is a project originally promoted by a consortium of local authorities and now adopted by DfT. The core route closed in the 1960s, and many sections have been redeveloped. The western section (Oxford – Bedford) is being implemented as an electrified 100 mph railway under a CP5 committed scheme. Routes for a Central section linking Bedford with the ECML are being considered, leading to an eastern section which would complete the link to Cambridge. However, no decision on route for the central section has yet been made. A proposed southern option could link Stevenage with the Midland Main Line at Luton and provide new journey opportunities to the east and west of the county. This option would provide the best result for Hertfordshire, as it would link the

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

county into the route (at Stevenage where there is substantial projected growth) and provide direct rail links to Luton Airport, Milton Keynes and Oxford from East Hertfordshire. No other proposed option would achieve this. The EWR Consortium’s analysis indicates Stevenage and Welwyn Garden City to Luton journey pairs are ‘very high priority’ and the southern option, as above, could also build on Stevenage’s position as an interchange hub. The County Council endorses this route option and will lobby the DfT to adopt it as the chosen option. A commitment to the redevelopment of Stevenage as an Interchange Hub would serve to strengthen this case. As highlighted above, achieving wider orbital east west connectivity is a challenging topic, not easily solvable by rail alone. A multi-modal review to address this will therefore be considered in the wider LTP4 Transport Vision work.

Orbital (East – West) Movement Strategic Priorities The strategic priorities identified for Orbital (East – West) Movement are presented below:  Short term: Facilitate orbital movement between main radial rail lines with a good quality east-west bus coach service between key stations offering through ticketing and timetabled connections.  Long term: Provide for east-west movement in the south of the county by working with the industry towards a long term rapid transit solution for the Abbey Line. If this is LRT or BRT it will allow for better connections into the centre of Watford and St Albans and would provide the starting point for wider adoption of a complementary LRT or BRT network to provide new county-wide transport links.  TOP PRIORITY -Long term: Provide for transformative east-west rail connectivity in the north of the county through an expression of support for East-West Rail Central Section southern option, connecting Stevenage to key employment centres and enhancing orbital connections. Use the prospect of redevelopment of Stevenage station as further encouragement to lobby DfT on this route option’s adoption. Further consideration, through the LTP4 Vision work, should also be given to broader east-west demand and options, not limited to rail.

4.7 Access to International Airports

4.7.1 Background Access by rail from key centres in the county to the two airports closest to Hertfordshire (Stansted and Luton) is poor and uncompetitive when compared with car. This is because the airports are only accessible from one corridor (WAML for Stansted and Midland Main Line for Luton).In addition, Luton is only served from the station by a bus link and there are no direct services to Stansted from the WAML, other than from Bishops Stortford. Stansted also suffers from there being only one access tunnel to the station imposing a single track section on the layout. This is a significant capacity constraint.

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By contrast access to Gatwick is particularly good (and will be significantly enhanced once the Thameslink project is fully implemented with direct access from St Albans and Stevenage and other stations on the ECML). However, access via the WCML and West London Line has been lost. Heathrow is well connected via central London by heavy rail and underground services. There are currently uncertainties over where the potential provision of additional runway capacity in the South East will be (either Heathrow or Gatwick) and this could result in a need for improved access to Heathrow and Gatwick should either or both of these be chosen for additional runways, significantly increasing their capacity.

4.7.2 Access to International Airports Strategic Priorities The strategic priorities identified for Access to International Airports are presented below:  Short term: . Committed investment will lead to a step change for some corridors in connections to Heathrow (especially if Crossrail 1 is extended to Watford Junction) and Gatwick (Thameslink Programme – providing additional capacity on MML and new direct connection from Great Northern), as well as improvements to Luton (Thameslink Programme) and Stansted (WAML plans). . Additionally there is a need to increase service frequencies and connectivity on the WAML to Stansted Airport with direct services only from Bishop’s Stortford and trains not coinciding with early and late flights (see WAML section above). . TOP PRIORITY - Provision of the Crossrail 1 WCML Link would offer better connections to Heathrow via Old Oak Common,  Long term: . Reinstatement of WCML to Brighton Main Line services via the West London Line to Gatwick would provide direct connections from Watford and Hemel Hempstead (this would be a top priority for Hertfordshire if Gatwick gets a second runway). . Support the East West Rail Central Section (southern option) for improved connections to Luton Airport (see section 0 above). . Provide a chord for direct access from the Hertford East Branch to Stansted Airport (though would be difficult and costly to achieve). Support the enhancement of services to Stansted Airport through the potential extension of some Crossrail 2 services there. Provision of a second tunnel into Stansted Airport station to enhance capacity. Provide stops at Broxbourne and/or Cheshunt on Stansted fast services. If no new direct services to Stansted can be provided then the County Council will press for improved connectivity between trains at interchanges with reduced waiting times. Provision of a second tunnel into Stansted Airport station to enhance capacity.

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4.8 HS2 Opportunities

4.8.1 Background HS2 is a planned high speed railway between London Euston and Birmingham with connections to North West England and Scotland (Phase 1), and then on to Leeds and Manchester with connections to North East England and Scotland (Phase 2). Construction on Phase 1 is due to commence in 2017 with a planned completion date of 2026. Phase 2 has been given a planned completion date of 2033. The Hybrid Bill supporting Phase 1 is currently being considered by a Parliamentary Select Committee.

4.8.2 HS2 Opportunities Strategic Priorities The strategic priorities identified for HS2 Opportunities are presented below:  Long term: The introduction of Phase 1 in 2026 will provide an opportunity to take advantage of the capacity released on the WCML. Following the start of HS2 services, the County Council will lobby for all long distance services on the classic WCML to stop at Watford Junction and for increased frequencies of commuter trains at key stations including but not limited to Berkhamsted and Hemel Hempstead.  Long term: HS2 Phase 2 to Leeds could relieve capacity pressure on the ECML from 2033 onwards. The County Council will lobby for increased long distance stops at Stevenage and increased frequency and capacity at other key stations such as Welwyn Garden City and Hatfield after the introduction of HS2 Phase 2.  Long term: HS2 Phase 2 could relieve capacity pressure on the MML from 2033 onwards. The County Council will lobby for increased long distance stops at St Albans and increased capacity at other key stations such as Radlett and Elstree & Borehamwood after the introduction of HS2 Phase 2.

4.9 Station Facilities, Station Access and Train Facilities The development objectives targeted for Station Facilities, Station Access and Train Facilities are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth;  supporting the environment and sustainability; and  supporting population growth. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for Station Facilities, Station Access and Train Facilities are:  station accessibility gaps, for example 40% of the top 20 of stations do not have full accessibility;  station facility gaps, for example 2 of the top 20 stations do not have toilets;

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 access to stations, for example only 52% of users are satisfied with car parks; and  train facility gaps, for example passenger satisfaction in Hertfordshire is below the South East average for 9 of 17 metrics. Given the above issues, the conditional outputs identified for Station Facilities, Station Access and Train Facilities are to:  prioritise rail station improvements to address gaps in disabled access;  prioritise rail station improvements to address gaps in provision of facilities;  prioritise station access improvements to address gaps in provision; and  ensure that all rolling stock that uses the network in Hertfordshire meets the needs of all customers. The interventions developed to address these conditional outputs are shown in Figure 4.21. Figure 4.21: Station Facilities, Station Access and Train Facilities Interventions

These interventions are described in more detail below: Car park and cycle parking upgrades – Other (possible) – CP5 (2014-2019) In the short term it is proposed that prioritised car park and cycle parking improvements are carried out. This will improve station access for a large number of users and help to secure rail mode share across the county. It should be noted that car park upgrades should be assessed with due consideration to impacts on the local road network and, where possible, the use of sustainable modes to access stations should be prioritised. Station access improvements - Other (possible) – CP5 (2014-2019) This proposed intervention is for prioritised station access improvements (such as to walking and cycling routes, bus access, forecourt interchanges) thereby minimising user conflict, reducing congestion, emphasising access for all. This

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will make rail a more attractive choice by addressing the whole ‘door to door’ journey. Station and train facility upgrades –Other (possible) – CP6 (2019 -2024) With regards to rolling stock, the County Council will lobby for upgrades where possible on all routes. This will lead to greater passenger satisfaction, increased reliability and potentially more capacity through higher capacity trains and potentially more train paths due to faster trains with improved braking. Prioritised station facility upgrades should also be carried out, above and beyond those currently planned for Bishops Stortford, Broxbourne and St Albans.

4.9.1 Station Facilities, Station Access and Train Facilities Strategic Priorities The strategic priorities identified for Station Facilities, Station Access and Train Facilities are presented below:  Short term: Address station facility gaps through targeted upgrade cycle parking facilities at key stations and car park facilities where appropriate.  Short term: Address access to station (including DDA compliance) issues through local improvement schemes, particularly for sustainable modes such as buses (integrated services and through ticketing), walking and cycling.  Medium term: Address train facility gaps by working in partnership with rail industry (DfT, Network Rail, TOCs) to secure higher quality of rolling stock on all lines that pass through the county.

4.10 Freight The development objectives targeted for Freight are:  supporting competitiveness;  enabling economic growth;  supporting the environment and sustainability; and  supporting population growth. The County Council is committed to encouraging the modal shift of freight traffic to rail, both by encouraging Network Rail to continue to provide sufficient freight access on key corridors, and by supporting the provision of suitable freight terminals. The key issues and evidence identified in the baseline analysis and in stakeholder engagement for freight are:  that peak hour passenger paths are at risk of being impacted by freight traffic. The conditional output identified for Freight is to:  work with FOCs to ensure that rail freight growth does not impact on the required level of peak and off-peak passenger services.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

4.10.1 Freight Strategic Priorities The strategic priorities identified for Freight are presented below:  Short/long term: Manage potential impacts to passenger services from freight path requirements, working with rail industry to develop short term plan and a longer term strategy to encourage rail freight and ensure that peak hour passenger paths are not threatened, especially after the implementation of HS2.  Short / long term: Safeguard existing, disused, planned and potential rail heads, links and wharves, where they have the potential for the import and export of minerals and secondary / recycled aggregates, as per national guidance and the locally adopted Minerals Plan. Support the development of new terminals where they can be built to be compatible with the needs of the local communities.

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5 Strategic Priorities

The Rail Strategy recommends a large number of short, medium and long term interventions in the rail network in Hertfordshire to meet its overarching development objectives. In order to focus the County Council’s resources and its stakeholder’s efforts on the most important elements of the rail strategy, a number of strategic priorities have been identified.

5.1 Strategic Priorities Strategic priorities have been identified for each of the routes and for all of the service groups within them (or for the topic in the case of Network-wide topics). Within the strategic priorities, the top priorities have been identified. These are recommended interventions that address multiple Conditional Outputs and are expected to deliver a step-change in rail service for Hertfordshire. These top priorities were presented to stakeholders at a rail strategy workshop in January 2015 and were generally agreed as the most important priorities for rail development in the county. The strategic priorities, along with top priority flags for each route (shown in red text), are presented below. The route map shown in Section 3.5 is also presented in Figure 5.1. Figure 5.1: Rail corridors passing through Hertfordshire

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West Anglia Main Line Strategic Priorities

 Short term: Continue to press for service improvements from the committed CP5 enhancements to reduce journey times and increase frequencies.

 Short to medium term: Develop options to further improve services through a timetable study to capitalise on planned investment. Increase line capacity by continuing to press for planned train and platform lengthening, and provision of extra platforms released by Crossrail 1 at London Liverpool Street before the end of CP6.

 Long term: Long term: Secure long term capacity and adequacy improvements, including four-tracking of the WAML, through support for the Crossrail 2 project and its extension into Hertfordshire, and in particular to Hertford East, utilising the Task Force as a lobbying opportunity. Investigate the implementation of development around Hertford East branch stations to increase the benefits of the project for the county.

East Coast Main Line Strategic Priorities

Significant investment in committed schemes, including Thameslink and GTR’s rolling stock replacement programme, already provides the potential for a step-change in capacity and frequencies on GN suburban and Hertford Loop, with particular benefit for areas with high forecast population and employment growth such as Welwyn Garden City. Continuing engagement with GTR and Network Rail is essential to ensure that the benefits to Hertfordshire are delivered.

 Short term: secure better long distance connections from Stevenage to the north from the new Intercity Trains franchise and progress comprehensive development of Stevenage Transport Hub to support Stevenage’s increasing importance as a growing population and employment centre, and its enhanced role as an interchange hub.

 Medium-long term: further build on the GTR plans by promoting service improvements (capacity, frequency, speed) through development of ‘Hertford Loop Metro’ to take advantage of the new Stevenage turnback platforms and new rolling stock, and develop Stevenage as a transport hub.

 Long term: HS2 Phase 2 will relieve capacity pressure on the ECML from 2033 onwards. The County Council will develop plans and lobby for increased long distance stops at Stevenage and increased local service frequency and capacity at other key stations.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Midland Main Line Strategic Priorities

Committed schemes will already provide significant additional capacity, frequencies and connections through full Thameslink service introduction and MML electrification, with new rolling stock and provision for train lengthening.

 Short term: improve connections to key destinations such as Sheffield and Nottingham following completion of electrification, by lobbying for the introduction of stops in long distance services at St Albans.

 Medium term: further improve connections to key destinations in the East Midlands and the north following the extension of electrification beyond Sheffield and Nottingham, and support the extension of Thameslink services.

 Long term: HS2 Phase 2 may relieve capacity pressure from 2033 onwards and enhanced long distance stops at St Albans and increased capacity at other key stations as part of the post HS2 timetable development process will be lobbied for

West Coast Main Line Strategic Priorities

 Short term: promote and endorse the case for extension of Crossrail 1 services to Watford Junction and Tring, to build the status of Watford Junction as an Interchange Hub, and delivering better through journey access to central London. This will be built on the need for alternative passenger facilities while Euston station is partially shut during HS2 rebuilding work from 2020 onwards.

 Long term: Develop plans with Network Rail for the long term redevelopment of Watford Junction into a major interchange hub. Lobby for all regional long distance services to stop at Watford after the introduction of HS2 Phase 1, by offering better interchange facilities for local, Crossrail and LUL services to central London.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

London to Aylesbury Line Strategic Priorities

 Short term: Short term: Continue to promote the implementation of the Croxley Rail Link project to deliver additional capacity and enhanced access to Watford town centre and the Watford Interchange Hub.

 Medium term: Medium term: To secure capacity improvements, the County Council will work with DfT to secure commitments for the inclusion of longer trains and higher capacity rolling stock in the next Chiltern franchise (2021).

 Medium term: Medium term: To improve local connections and exploit Watford growth hub, develop plans for a future Aylesbury-Watford Chiltern diesel service via a reinstated Amersham Chord, which would maximise journey opportunities to the north of Watford.

 Medium term: Medium term: To improve local connections and exploit the potential for the Watford Interchange hub, the County Council will also press TfL to use the Amersham chord to deliver direct services from Watford to Amersham via London Underground on the Croxley Rail Link and also improve service frequency either via the extension of the Bakerloo Line or increasing the frequency of Overground services.

Orbital (East-West Movement) Strategic Priorities

 Short term: Facilitate orbital movement between main radial rail lines with a good quality east-west bus coach service between key stations offering through ticketing and timetabled connections.

 Long term: Provide for east-west movement in the south of the county by working with the industry towards a long term rapid transit solution for the Abbey Line. If this is LRT or BRT it will allow for better connections into the centre of Watford and St Albans and would provide the starting point for wider adoption of a complementary LRT or BRT network to provide new county-wide transport links.

 Long term: Provide for transformative east-west rail connectivity in the north of the county through an expression of support for East-West Rail Central Section southern option, connecting Stevenage to key employment centres and enhancing orbital connections. Use the prospect of redevelopment of Stevenage station as further encouragement to lobby DfT on this route option’s adoption. Further consideration, through the LTP4 Vision work, should also be given to broader east-west demand and options, not limited to rail.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Access to International Airports Strategic Priorities

 Short term:  Committed investment will lead to a step change for some corridors in connections to Heathrow (especially if Crossrail 1 is extended to Watford Junction) and Gatwick (Thameslink Programme – providing additional capacity on MML and new direct connection from Great Northern), as well as improvements to Luton (Thameslink Programme) and Stansted (WAML plans).  Additionally there is a need to increase service frequencies and connectivity on the WAML to Stansted Airport with direct services only from Bishop’s Stortford and trains not coinciding with early and late flights (see WAML section above).  Provision of the Crossrail 1 WCML Link would offer better connections to Heathrow via Old Oak Common.

 Long term:  Reinstatement of WCML to Brighton Main Line services via the West London Line to Gatwick would provide direct connections from Watford and Hemel Hempstead (this would be a top priority for Hertfordshire if Gatwick gets a second runway).  Support the East West Rail Central Section (southern option) for improved connections to Luton Airport (see section 4.6.3 above).  Provide a chord for direct access from the Hertford East Branch to Stansted Airport (though would be difficult and costly to achieve). Support the enhancement of services to Stansted Airport through the potential extension of some Crossrail 2 services there. Provision of a second tunnel into Stansted Airport station to enhance capacity. Provide stops at Broxbourne and/or Cheshunt on Stansted fast services. If no new direct services to Stansted can be provided then the County Council will press for improved connectivity between trains at interchanges with reduced waiting times. Provision of a second tunnel into Stansted Airport station to enhance capacity.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

HS2 Strategic Priorities

 Long term: Long term: The introduction of Phase 1 in 2026 will provide an opportunity to take advantage of the capacity released on the WCML. Following the start of HS2 services, the County Council will lobby for all long distance services on the classic WCML to stop at Watford Junction and for increased frequencies of commuter trains at key stations including but not limited to Berkhamsted and Hemel Hempstead.

 Long term: Long term: HS2 Phase 2 to Leeds could relieve capacity pressure on the ECML from 2033 onwards. The County Council will lobby for increased long distance stops at Stevenage and increased frequency and capacity at other key stations such as Welwyn Garden City and Hatfield after the introduction of HS2 Phase 2.

 Long term: Long term: HS2 Phase 2 could relieve capacity pressure on the MML from 2033 onwards. The County Council will lobby for increased long distance stops at St Albans and increased capacity at other key stations such as Radlett and Elstree & Borehamwood after the introduction of HS2 Phase 2.

Station Facilities, Station Access and Train Facilities Strategic Priorities

 Short term: Address station facility gaps through targeted upgrade cycle parking facilities at key stations and car park facilities where appropriate.

 Short term: Address access to station (including DDA compliance) issues through local improvement schemes, particularly for sustainable modes such as buses (integrated services and through ticketing), walking and cycling.

 Medium term: Address train facility gaps by working in partnership with rail industry (DfT, Network Rail, TOCs) to secure higher quality of rolling stock on all lines that pass through the county.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Freight Strategic Priorities

 Short/long term: Manage potential impacts to passenger services from freight path requirements, working with rail industry to develop short term plan and a longer term strategy to encourage rail freight and ensure that peak hour passenger paths are not threatened, especially after the implementation of HS2.

 Short / long term: Safeguard existing, disused, planned and potential rail heads, links and wharves, where they have the potential for the import and export of minerals and secondary / recycled aggregates, as per national guidance and the locally adopted Minerals Plan. Support the development of new terminals where they can be built to be compatible with the needs of the local communities.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

5.2 Top Priorities All of the top priorities that have been flagged with red text above are presented below. Stakeholders who were involved in the development of the Strategy were broadly in agreement with these top priorities.

Hertfordshire Rail Strategy Top Priorities

Deliver additional capacity and enhanced access to Watford town centre through the Croxley Rail Link project, and developing a Watford Interchange Hub.

SHORT TERM

Increase capacity and service frequency on the West Coast Main Line, and enhance journey opportunities to London, HS2 and Heathrow through a Crossrail 1 WCML link.

Develop ‘Hertford Loop Metro’ concept through service improvements (capacity, frequency, speed) to take advantage of the new Stevenage turnback platform and new stock, and develop a

TERM Stevenage Interchange Hub with improved long distance

MEDIUM MEDIUM connectivity.

Provide for transformative east-west rail connectivity in the north of the county through support for East-West Rail Central Section

southern option via Luton and Stevenage, connecting Stevenage hub to key employment centres and enhancing orbital connections.

LONG TERM LONG Secure long term capacity and adequacy improvements on the West Anglia Main Line through support for four-tracking and the Crossrail 2 project in Hertfordshire.

It should be reiterated that some topics or areas (such as HS2, access to airports etc.) do not have identified top priorities as they have a series of interventions, none of which individually meet multiple Conditional Outputs. A check has been carried out against the Conditional Output prioritisation exercise to ensure that all key outputs have been addressed. It is considered that all major outputs have been covered by the Strategy with the exception of where the need for further investigation through the Transport Vision has been flagged within the Strategy:  Extension of Crossrail 1 services to St Albans via WCML

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

 Creation of a Metro-style rail network across South Hertfordshire  Orbital east-west movement multi-modal review The top priorities have also been presented on a map which is shown overleaf as Figure 5.2.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Figure 5.2: Top Strategic Priorities for the Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

5.3 Action Plan There are specific actions required to drive forward the strategic priorities from the rail strategy. These are listed below, and cover the main action, when it will be undertaken, and the main stakeholders involved. This will provide a good basis for developing an implementation plan for the Rail Strategy. Of course there are many other actions that could be taken forward from the other strategy recommendations, many building on existing rail development activities already underway in the county (e.g. station improvements). These will be developed with the priority actions in a more detailed implementation plan following approval of the strategy.

Main Stakeholders Action When

DfT

TOC

Other

West Anglia Main Line Strategic Priorities

Undertake timetable study to exploit planned enhancements to reduce 2015-   journey times and increase frequencies to Liverpool Street. 2016

Continue to press Network Rail for increased line capacity through 2015- train and platform lengthening, and for extra platforms at Liverpool   2016 Street before the end of CP6

Lobby DfT, TfL and Network Rail to secure long term capacity and adequacy improvements through the Crossrail 2 project in Hertfordshire. Work with local stakeholders to commit to focused 2015-    development around potential Crossrail 2 stations to increase the ongoing benefits of the project for the county, and promote 4-tracking as an enabler for the project.

East Coast Main Line Strategic Priorities

Continue to support the committed schemes that provide a step-change in capacity and frequency on GN suburban and Hertford Loop lines, 2015-   such as the Thameslink programme and GTR’s rolling stock 2016 improvements.

Work with Inter City Railways to secure better long distance 2015- connections from Stevenage to the north from the new East Coast 2016 &  franchise and open access operators. 2018-19

Work with local stakeholders and the rail industry to develop the 2015- Stevenage Transport Hub, to support Stevenage’s increasing     ongoing importance as a growing population and employment centre.

2015- Promote service improvements (capacity, frequency, speed) through    development of the ‘Hertford Loop Metro’ concept to take advantage ongoing

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Main Stakeholders Action When

DfT

TOC

Other of the new Stevenage turnback platforms and new stock, and develop Stevenage as transport hub.

Lobby the rail industry, including HS2 Ltd, for increased long distance 2015- stops at Stevenage and increased frequency and capacity at other key     ongoing stations when HS2 Phase 2 is implemented.

Midland Main Line Strategic Priorities

Continue to support the full Thameslink service to provide significant additional capacity, frequencies and connections, and the introduction 2015-   of MML electrification, with new rolling stock and provision for train 2019 lengthening.

Lobby the rail industry for the introduction of long distance stops at St 2018- Albans to improve connections to key destinations such as Sheffield    2019 and Nottingham following completion of electrification.

Lobby the rail industry for the extension of Thameslink services to 2018- further improve connections to key destinations in the East Midlands   2019 and the north following electrification.

Lobby the rail industry, including HS2 Ltd, for increased long distance 2015- stops at St Albans and increased frequency and capacity at other key     ongoing stations when HS2 Phase 2 is implemented.

West Coast Main Line Strategic Priorities

Work with local stakeholders and the rail industry to develop Watford Junction into an interchange hub, to increase capacity and frequency, 2015- enhanced journey opportunities to Central London, and connections to     ongoing HS2, lobbying for the Crossrail 1 WCML link and all long distance services to stop at Watford after HS2 Phase 1.

Develop plans with Network Rail for the long term redevelopment of 2015-     Watford Junction as a major transport hub. ongoing

London to Aylesbury Line Strategic Priorities

Deliver the Croxley Rail Link project to provide additional capacity 2015- and enhanced access to Watford town centre via the Watford     2018 Interchange Hub.

Press for the inclusion of longer trains and higher capacity rolling stock 2019- in the next Chiltern franchise (2021 start) to secure capacity   2021 improvements on this line.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Main Stakeholders Action When

DfT

TOC

Other

Lobby the rail industry for future Aylesbury-Watford Chiltern services 2016-    to improve local connectivity and exploit the Watford growth hub. onwards

Lobby Network Rail for the use of the Amersham chord to deliver direct connections to Amersham and Aylesbury from Watford via LU 2016- and the Croxley Rail Link, along with the extension of the Bakerloo    onwards Line/ improved Overground service frequency to improve local connectivity and exploit the Watford growth hub.

Orbital (East-West Movement) Strategic Priorities

Work with local stakeholders to develop improved bus/coach services 2015- to facilitate orbital movement between main radial rail lines with east-   2016 west services between key stations.

Provide for east-west movement in the south of the county by working 2015- with local stakeholders and the DfT towards a long term rapid transit     ongoing solution for the Abbey Line.

Provide for transformative east-west rail connectivity in the north of the county through support for the East-West Rail Central Section 2015-    southern option, connecting Stevenage to key employment centres and ongoing enhancing orbital connections.

Access to International Airports Strategic Priorities

Continue to support the committed investment that will lead to a step- change in connectivity to Heathrow (Crossrail 1) and Gatwick (Thameslink Programme – additional capacity on MML and new direct 2015-     connection from Great Northern), as well as improvements to Luton 2019 (Thameslink Programme) and Stansted (short term WAML capacity enhancements).

Lobby for the provision of the Crossrail 1 WCML Link to create better connections to Heathrow via Old Oak Common. Lobby for reinstatement of WCML to Brighton Main Line services via the West London Line to Gatwick (top priority if Gatwick gets a second runway). 2015- Support the East West Rail Central Section (southern option) for     ongoing improved connectivity to Luton Airport. Provide a chord for direct access from the Hertford East Branch to Stansted Airport and support the enhancement of services to Stansted Airport through the possible extension of some Crossrail 2 services.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Main Stakeholders Action When

DfT

TOC

Other

HS2 Strategic Priorities

Lobby the industry, particularly HS2 Ltd and the DfT, for all long distance services to stop at Watford Junction and for increased frequencies at key stations such as Berkhamsted and Hemel Hempstead to take advantage of the released capacity on the WCML after the introduction of HS2 Phase 1. Lobby the industry, particularly HS2 Ltd and the DfT, for increased long distance stops at Stevenage and increased frequency and capacity 2015- at other key stations such as Welwyn Garden City and Hatfield to take     ongoing advantage of the released capacity on the ECML after the introduction of HS2 Phase 2 from 2032 onwards. Lobby the industry, particularly HS2 Ltd and the DfT, for increased long distance stops at St Albans and increased capacity at other key stations such as Radlett and Elstree & Borehamwood to take advantage of the released capacity on the MML after the introduction of HS2 Phase 2 from 2032 onwards.

Station Facilities, Station Access and Train Facilities Strategic Priorities

Working with Network Rail, TOCs and local stakeholders, address 2015- station facility gaps through targeted upgrade of cycle parking facilities    ongoing at key stations and car park facilities where appropriate.

Working with Network Rail, TOCs and local stakeholders, address access to station issues through local improvement schemes, 2015-    particularly for sustainable modes such as buses (integrated services ongoing and through ticketing), walking and cycling.

Address train facility gaps by working in partnership with rail industry 2015- (DfT, Network Rail, TOCs) to secure higher quality of rolling stock on    ongoing all lines that pass through the county.

Freight Strategic Priorities

Manage potential impacts to passenger services from freight path requirements, working with rail industry to develop short term plan for 2015-     rail freight and a longer term strategy to ensure passenger paths are not 2016 threatened.

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

5.4 Implementing the Strategy The Rail Strategy has been developed with extensive engagement with a wide range of stakeholders including but not limited to district councils, the rail industry, the business community and other transport providers. This process has developed general support for the recommended interventions and the strategic priorities, although inevitably stakeholders may have differing priorities. The Strategy will be implemented quickly. In particular the top priorities will be developed as a priority to feed into the main rail industry processes, such as Network Rail Route Study consultations, DfT’s HLOS process, and franchise consultations and renewals. Early engagement will include:  engagement with the Department for Transport to clearly promote the County Council’s requirements for: . the 2017 High Level Output Specification (HLOS) and Control Period 6; . future franchise specifications (Greater Anglia, London Midland, East Midlands, West Coast, etc.);  engagement with Network Rail to continue the County Council’s active participation in the Long Term Planning Process (LTPP) particularly the Route Studies. Conditional Outputs have been defined as part of the completed Market Studies but the ongoing Route Study process will provide funding choices to address the Conditional Output Statement for Control Period 6 and beyond to 2043;  engagement with Transport for London and Network Rail to ensure the County Council’s active participation in the development of the Crossrail 2 scheme, and other schemes involving lines and stations in London. Regular engagement will continue to be held with the Train Operating Companies to build relationships around development and implementation of relevant options, and with Hertfordshire stakeholders, such as Boroughs and Districts, the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP), and the business community, to report on progress, build relationships around the rail strategy, and harness local skills and knowledge to support implementation. Engagement will also be held with specific projects, for example with the East West Rail consortium (of which HCC is an active member), particularly to make the case for the southern option of the central section of the route. It is intended that an Annual Rail Summit will be held to assist with implementing the Strategy. This is used in other local authority areas as an effective means of implementing a rail strategy with stakeholders and the industry, and builds on the successful stakeholder engagement held during the development of this strategy. The County Council will lead this, and local and industry stakeholders will be informed of progress in implementing the Rail Strategy and given the opportunity to discuss opportunities and threats. A rail summit or similar type event is a way of reporting on progress of the Rail Strategy, build relationships around it, and harness local skills and knowledge to support implementation. The County Council is currently developing a long-term Transport Vision as part of its development work for its new Local Transport Plan. Once the outcomes of the Vision work are complete it is probable that the Rail Strategy will require

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

revisiting to ensure that it aligns with the long term vision and includes any rail related priorities. There is excellent stakeholder interest and support for this strategy both within and outside the rail industry, which the County Council with partners will harness to deliver a successful rail strategy that delivers the development objectives for the county.

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Appendix A Stakeholders

Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

A1 List of Stakeholders involved in the development of the Rail Strategy

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Hertfordshire Districts

East Hertfordshire District Welwyn Hatfield District Stevenage District North Hertfordshire District St Albans and City District Dacorum District Broxbourne District Three Rivers District Watford District

Other Local Authorities

Essex County Council Cambridgeshire County Council Luton Borough Council Buckinghamshire County Council Uttlesford District

Train Operating Companies

Abellio Greater Anglia London Midland Govia Thameslink Railway

Other Rail Industry Stakeholders

West Anglia Routes Group West London Line Group TfL West Coast Rail 250 London & South East Rail Future Network Rail East West Rail Consortium

Other Modes

Stansted Airport Luton Airport

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Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

Luton Airport Metroline SusTrans

Other Stakeholders

Hertfordshire LEP Hertfordshire Chamber of Commerce Hertfordshire University

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Appendix B Disused Rail Lines

Hertfordshire County Council Hertfordshire Rail Strategy

B1 Map of Disused Rail Lines in Hertfordshire

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