Ludwig Von Mises: Scholar, Creator, Hero
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Von Mises' Frequentist Approach to Probability
Section on Statistical Education – JSM 2008 Von Mises’ Frequentist Approach to Probability Milo Schield1 and Thomas V. V. Burnham2 1 Augsburg College, Minneapolis, MN 2 Cognitive Systems, San Antonio, TX Abstract Richard Von Mises (1883-1953), the originator of the birthday problem, viewed statistics and probability theory as a science that deals with and is based on real objects rather than as a branch of mathematics that simply postulates relationships from which conclusions are derived. In this context, he formulated a strict Frequentist approach to probability. This approach is limited to observations where there are sufficient reasons to project future stability – to believe that the relative frequency of the observed attributes would tend to a fixed limit if the observations were continued indefinitely by sampling from a collective. This approach is reviewed. Some suggestions are made for statistical education. 1. Richard von Mises Richard von Mises (1883-1953) may not be well-known by statistical educators even though in 1939 he first proposed a problem that is today widely-known as the birthday problem.1 There are several reasons for this lack of recognition. First, he was educated in engineering and worked in that area for his first 30 years. Second, he published primarily in German. Third, his works in statistics focused more on theoretical foundations. Finally, his inductive approach to deriving the basic operations of probability is very different from the postulate-and-derive approach normally taught in introductory statistics. See Frank (1954) and Studies in Mathematics and Mechanics (1954) for a review of von Mises’ works. This paper is based on his two English-language books on probability: Probability, Statistics and Truth (1936) and Mathematical Theory of Probability and Statistics (1964). -
23. Relativism and Radical Conservatism
This is the preprint version of a book chapter published by Routledge/CRC Press in The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Relativism, edited by Martin Kusch (Abingdon: Routledge, 2020), 219–27 on December 4, 2019, available online: http://doi.org/10.4324/9781351052306-24. 23. Relativism and radical conservatism Timo Pankakoski and Jussi Backman ABSTRACT. The chapter tackles the complex, tension-ridden, and often paradoxical relationship between relativism and conservatism. We focus particularly on radical conservatism, an early twentieth-century German movement that arguably constitutes the climax of conservatism’s problematic relationship with relativism. We trace the shared genealogy of conservatism and historicism in nineteenth-century Counter-Enlightenment thought and interpret radical conservatism’s ambivalent relation to relativism as reflecting this heritage. Emphasizing national particularity, historical uniqueness, and global political plurality, Carl Schmitt and Hans Freyer moved in the tradition of historicism, stopping short of full relativism. Yet they utilized relativistic elements – such as seeing irrational decisions or the demands of “life” as the basis of politics – to discredit notions of universal political morality and law, thereby underpinning their authoritarian agendas. Oswald Spengler, by contrast, took the relativistic impulses to the extreme, interweaving his conservative authoritarianism and nationalism with full-fledged epistemic, moral, and political relativism. Martin Heidegger has recently been perceived as the key philosopher of radical conservatism, and his 1 thought arguably channeled antimodern aspects of historicism into contemporary political thought. We conclude by analyzing how some radical conservative arguments involving cultural relativism and plurality still reverberate in contemporary theorists such as Samuel Huntington, Aleksandr Dugin, and Alain de Benoist. -
European Miracle” Warrior Aristocrats, Spirit of Liberty, and Competition As a Discovery Process
SUBSCRIBE NOW AND RECEIVE CRISIS AND LEVIATHAN* FREE! “The Independent Review does not accept “The Independent Review is pronouncements of government officials nor the excellent.” conventional wisdom at face value.” —GARY BECKER, Noble Laureate —JOHN R. MACARTHUR, Publisher, Harper’s in Economic Sciences Subscribe to The Independent Review and receive a free book of your choice* such as the 25th Anniversary Edition of Crisis and Leviathan: Critical Episodes in the Growth of American Government, by Founding Editor Robert Higgs. This quarterly journal, guided by co-editors Christopher J. Coyne, and Michael C. Munger, and Robert M. Whaples offers leading-edge insights on today’s most critical issues in economics, healthcare, education, law, history, political science, philosophy, and sociology. Thought-provoking and educational, The Independent Review is blazing the way toward informed debate! Student? Educator? Journalist? Business or civic leader? Engaged citizen? This journal is for YOU! *Order today for more FREE book options Perfect for students or anyone on the go! The Independent Review is available on mobile devices or tablets: iOS devices, Amazon Kindle Fire, or Android through Magzter. INDEPENDENT INSTITUTE, 100 SWAN WAY, OAKLAND, CA 94621 • 800-927-8733 • [email protected] PROMO CODE IRA1703 REVIEW ESSAY The “European Miracle” Warrior Aristocrats, Spirit of Liberty, and Competition as a Discovery Process F ANDREI ZNAMENSKI hile reading the news, I recently came across a small story with a photo, which produced more than forty thousand reposts and an avalanche of W comments in the Chinese blogosphere. On the way to an appointment, Gary Locke, the newly nominated American ambassador to China, was spotted at the Seattle–Tacoma International Airport by a Chinese American businessman who happened to know him and who snapped and posted on his blog a picture of the ambassador standing at a Starbucks’ counter, buying a cup of coffee and carrying a backpack. -
The Interpretation of Probability: Still an Open Issue? 1
philosophies Article The Interpretation of Probability: Still an Open Issue? 1 Maria Carla Galavotti Department of Philosophy and Communication, University of Bologna, Via Zamboni 38, 40126 Bologna, Italy; [email protected] Received: 19 July 2017; Accepted: 19 August 2017; Published: 29 August 2017 Abstract: Probability as understood today, namely as a quantitative notion expressible by means of a function ranging in the interval between 0–1, took shape in the mid-17th century, and presents both a mathematical and a philosophical aspect. Of these two sides, the second is by far the most controversial, and fuels a heated debate, still ongoing. After a short historical sketch of the birth and developments of probability, its major interpretations are outlined, by referring to the work of their most prominent representatives. The final section addresses the question of whether any of such interpretations can presently be considered predominant, which is answered in the negative. Keywords: probability; classical theory; frequentism; logicism; subjectivism; propensity 1. A Long Story Made Short Probability, taken as a quantitative notion whose value ranges in the interval between 0 and 1, emerged around the middle of the 17th century thanks to the work of two leading French mathematicians: Blaise Pascal and Pierre Fermat. According to a well-known anecdote: “a problem about games of chance proposed to an austere Jansenist by a man of the world was the origin of the calculus of probabilities”2. The ‘man of the world’ was the French gentleman Chevalier de Méré, a conspicuous figure at the court of Louis XIV, who asked Pascal—the ‘austere Jansenist’—the solution to some questions regarding gambling, such as how many dice tosses are needed to have a fair chance to obtain a double-six, or how the players should divide the stakes if a game is interrupted. -
Emma Goldman a Documentary History of the American Years
EMMA GOLDMAN A DOCUMENTARY HISTORY OF THE AMERICAN YEARS Candace Falk, editor Barry Pateman, associate editor Jessica M. Moran, assistant editor Susan Wengraf, illustrations editor Robert Cohen, consulting editor 1. Made for America, 1890–1901 2. Making Speech Free, 1902–1909 A DOCUMENTARY HISTORY OF THE AMERICAN YEARS VOLUME ONE Made for America, 1890 –1901 CANDACE FALK • EDITOR BARRY PATEMAN • ASSOCIATE EDITOR JESSICA M. MORAN • ASSISTANT EDITOR SUSAN WENGRAF • ILLUSTRATIONS EDITOR ROBERT COHEN • CONSULTING EDITOR UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRESS Berkeley Los Angeles London The publisher gratefully acknowledges the generous contribution to this book provided by the General Endowment of the University of California Press Associates, and by the National Historical Publications and Records Commission. frontispiece The young Emma Goldman just after her arrival in the United States from Russia in 1885. Fermin Rocker remembers his father, the eminent German anarchist activist and historian Rudolf Rocker, commenting wryly that his friend and comrade Emma Goldman was “made in America.” (Emma Goldman Papers) University of California Press Berkeley and Los Angeles, California University of California Press, Ltd. London, England © 2003 by The Emma Goldman Papers Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Emma Goldman : a documentary history of the American years / Candace Falk, editor ; Barry Pateman, associate editor ; Jessica M. Moran, assistant editor. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. isbn 0-520-08670–8 (v. 1 : alk. paper). 1. Goldman, Emma, 1869–1940. 2. Anarchists—United States— Biography. 3. Anarchism—United States—History—Sources. 4. Freedom of speech—United States—History—Sources. I. Title: Documentary history of the American years. II. -
Reason Papers No
Editor: Tibor R. Machan Managbig Editor: Mark Turiano Executive Editor: Gregory R. Johnson Associate Editors: Walter Block/ Economics Douglas J. Den Uyl/ Philosophy Kelly Dean Jolley/ Philosophy Leonard Liggio/ History Eric Mack/ Philosophy John D. McCallie/ Economics H. Joachim Maitre/ Interrzational Relations Ralph Raico/ History Lynn Scarlett/ Political Science Advisory Board: D. T. Armentanol University ofHartford Yale Brazen/ University of Chicago Nicholas Capaldi/ Urziversity of Tulsa R.L. Cunningham/ University of Sun Francisco John Hospers/ Univmity of Southern Cdlifornia Isreal M. Kirzner/ Nm York University Kenneth G. Luce y/ SUNY College. Fredonia Fred D. Miller, Jr./ Bowling Green State University Herbert Morris/ University of California, Los Angeles Clifton Perry/ Auburn University Paul Craig Roberts/ Georgetown University Morton L. Schagrin/ SUNY College, Fredonia Thomas S. Szasz/ SUNYMedical Center, Syracuse Articles On the Fit between Egoism and Rights ......................Eric Mack 3 Resolving the Tension in Aristotle's Ethic: The Balance Between Naturalism and Responsibility ........ David E. W. Fenner 22 The Irrationality of the Extended Order: The Fatal Conceit of F. A . Hayek ....... Larry ]. Sechrest 38 Special Forum: Rand & Philosophy A Philosopher for the New Millennium? ........ Fred D. Miller. Jr. On Rand as Philosopher ............................... Dough J. Den Uyl Rand and Philosophy (and Capitalism) ..... Douglas B. Rasmussen Ayn Rand's Contribution to Philosophy ....... Neera K. Badhwar What is Living in the Philosophy of AynRand ... Lester H . Hunt Rand and Objectivity ............................................... David Kelly Rand Revisited ...................................... .. ................]. Roger Lee Ayn Rand's Philosophical Significance .................... John Hospers Ayn Rand as Moral & Political Philosopher ..........la n Narveson Discussion Notes Kamhi and Torres on Meaning in Ayn Rand's Esthetics .............................................. -
Mere Libertarianism: Blending Hayek and Rothbard
Mere Libertarianism: Blending Hayek and Rothbard Daniel B. Klein Santa Clara University The continued progress of a social movement may depend on the movement’s being recognized as a movement. Being able to provide a clear, versatile, and durable definition of the movement or philosophy, quite apart from its justifications, may help to get it space and sympathy in public discourse. 1 Some of the most basic furniture of modern libertarianism comes from the great figures Friedrich Hayek and Murray Rothbard. Like their mentor Ludwig von Mises, Hayek and Rothbard favored sweeping reductions in the size and intrusiveness of government; both favored legal rules based principally on private property, consent, and contract. In view of the huge range of opinions about desirable reform, Hayek and Rothbard must be regarded as ideological siblings. Yet Hayek and Rothbard each developed his own ideas about liberty and his own vision for a libertarian movement. In as much as there are incompatibilities between Hayek and Rothbard, those seeking resolution must choose between them, search for a viable blending, or look to other alternatives. A blending appears to be both viable and desirable. In fact, libertarian thought and policy analysis in the United States appears to be inclined toward a blending of Hayek and Rothbard. At the center of any libertarianism are ideas about liberty. Differences between libertarianisms usually come down to differences between definitions of liberty or between claims made for liberty. Here, in exploring these matters, I work closely with the writings of Hayek and Rothbard. I realize that many excellent libertarian philosophers have weighed in on these matters and already said many of the things I say here. -
The Technological Imaginary of Imperial Japan, 1931-1945
THE TECHNOLOGICAL IMAGINARY OF IMPERIAL JAPAN, 1931-1945 A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Cornell University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Aaron Stephen Moore August 2006 © 2006 Aaron Stephen Moore THE TECHNOLOGICAL IMAGINARY OF IMPERIAL JAPAN, 1931-1945 Aaron Stephen Moore, Ph.D. Cornell University 2006 “Technology” has often served as a signifier of development, progress, and innovation in the narrative of Japan’s transformation into an economic superpower. Few histories, however, treat technology as a system of power and mobilization. This dissertation examines an important shift in the discourse of technology in wartime Japan (1931-1945), a period usually viewed as anti-modern and anachronistic. I analyze how technology meant more than advanced machinery and infrastructure but included a subjective, ethical, and visionary element as well. For many elites, technology embodied certain ways of creative thinking, acting or being, as well as values of rationality, cooperation, and efficiency or visions of a society without ethnic or class conflict. By examining the thought and activities of the bureaucrat, Môri Hideoto, and the critic, Aikawa Haruki, I demonstrate that technology signified a wider system of social, cultural, and political mechanisms that incorporated the practical-political energies of the people for the construction of a “New Order in East Asia.” Therefore, my dissertation is more broadly about how power operated ideologically under Japanese fascism in ways other than outright violence and repression that resonate with post-war “democratic” Japan and many modern capitalist societies as well. This more subjective, immaterial sense of technology revealed a fundamental ambiguity at the heart of technology. -
Werner Sombart's ʻovercomingʼ of Marxism
CHAPTER 27 Werner Sombart’s ʻOvercomingʼ of Marxism 27.1 The Historical School as ʻDigestive Scienceʼ (Rosa Luxemburg) The ʻolder historical schoolʼ of political economy, whose members included Wilhelm Roscher (1817–94), Bruno Hildebrandt (1812–78) and Karl Knies (1821– 98), emerged in the 1840s. It was a specifically ʻGermanʼ reaction both to the French Revolution and to the ʻWesternʼ cosmopolitanism of classical political economy from Smith to Ricardo.1 It was ostensibly concerned with opposing the ʻsurgical extractionʼ of the economy from the ʻliving bodyʼ of popular life and the life of the state, and in particular the ʻnarrow egotistic psychologyʼ according to which social actors are guided, in their economic behaviour, only by economic considerations, as opposed to ethical motives.2 If Machiavelli banished ethics from politics, Adam Smith performed the same operation for political economy, criticises Knies, who emphasises the significance of the ʻethico-political momentʼ for political economy and speaks of the discipline being ʻelevatedʼ to the status of a ʻmoral and political science’.3 At first glance, this seems to represent an integral approach to studying social practices. But behind this pathos of wholeness, there lies the definition of political economy as a ʻstate economyʼ concerned with ʻjudging men and ruling them’.4 The historical school developed from cameralism, which became the discipline of state science due to the Prussian path of capitalist develop- ment.5 Marx describes cameralism as ʻa medley of smatterings, through -
Betting on People the Olin Foundation’S Support for Law and Eco- Nomics Was Part of a Larger Success in Public-Policy Philanthropy
4 Betting on People The Olin Foundation’s support for law and eco- nomics was part of a larger success in public-policy philanthropy. The foundation wanted to build up an alternative intellectual infrastructure that could compete with entrenched academic and media elites at generating new ideas for the governance of American society. “What we desperately need in America today is a powerful counterintelligentsia,” wrote longtime Olin president William Simon in his 1978 bestselling book, A Time for Truth. He wanted 50 to bolster thinkers dedicated to “individual liberty...meritocracy...and the free market.... Such an intelligentsia exists, and an audience awaits its views.” Just about every aspect of the Olin Foundation’s philanthropy involved meeting that long-term goal. It was a monumental challenge. Though much of the funder’s grantmaking focused on scholars at col- leges and universities, today left-wing orthodoxies are even more dom- inant on campuses than when the foundation first started to address this problem in the 1970s. Can we consider Olin to have succeeded in fostering fresh thinking that translates into altered public policies? First, it’s important to note that Olin had a few savvy allies in its cause. The earliest efforts in this area were made by the William Volker Fund way back in the 1940s. In 1947, the Volker Fund agreed to help a group of 17 economists fly from the United States to Switzerland for the first meeting of the Mont Pelerin Society, an organization of libertarian economists founded by Friedrich Hayek to promote free markets and refute socialism. -
The Essential Von Mises
The Essential von Mises The Essential von Mises Murray N. Rothbard LvMI MISES INSTITUTE Scholar, Creator, Hero © 1988 by the Ludwig von Mises Institute The Essential von Mises first published in 1973 by Bramble Minibooks, Lansing Michigan Copyright © 2009 by the Ludwig von Mises Institute and published under the Creative Commons Attribution License 3.0. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/3.0/ New matter copyright © 2009 by the Ludwig von Mises Institute Ludwig von Mises Institute 518 West Magnolia Avenue Auburn, Alabama 36832 Mises.org ISBN: 978-1-933550-41-1 Contents Introduction by Douglas E. French . vii Part One: The Essential von Mises 1. The Austrian School. 3 2. Mises and “Austrian Economics”: The Theory of Money and Credit . .13 3. Mises on the Business Cycle . 21 4. Mises in the Interwar Period . 25 5. Mises on Economic Calculation and Socialism . 29 6. Mises on the Methodology of Economics. 31 7. Mises and Human Action . 35 8. Mises in America . .41 9. The Way Out . 45 Part Two: Ludwig von Mises: Scholar, Creator, Hero 1. The Young Scholar . 51 2. The Theory of Money and Credit. 55 3. The Reception of Mises and of Money and Credit . 67 4. Mises in the 1920s: Economic Adviser to the Government . 73 5. Mises in the 1920s: Scholar and Creator . 79 6. Mises in the 1920s: Teacher and Mentor . 91 7. Exile and the New World . 99 8. Coda: Mises the Man . 115 v Introduction he two essays printed in this monograph were written by my Tteacher Murray N. Rothbard (1926–1995) about his teacher Ludwig von Mises (1881–1973). -
167-186.Walter Block
A LIBERTARIAN CASE FOR FREE IMMIGRATION Walter Block* “None are too many.”—Reply of an anonymous senior official in the government of Canadian Prime Minister McKenzie King to the question, “How many Jews fleeing Nazi Germany should be allowed into this country?”1 All merchants shall have safe and secure exit from Eng- land and entry to England, with the right to tarry there and to move about as well by land as by water, for buy- ing and selling by the ancient and right customs, quite from all evil tolls, except (in time of war) such merchants as are of the land at war with us. And if such are found in our land at the beginning of the war, they shall be de- tained, without injury to their bodies or goods, until in- formation be received by us, or by our chief justiciar, how the merchants of our land found in the land at war with us are treated; and if our men are safe there, the others shall be safe in our land.2 n this paper I will attempt to analyze laws limiting emigra- tion, migration, and immigration from the libertarian per- Ispective. I will defend the view that the totally free move- ment of goods, factors of production, money, and, most important of all, people, is part and parcel of this traditional libertarian *Walter Block is chairman of the economics and finance department at the Uni- versity of Central Arkansas, and is a senior fellow of the Ludwig von Mises In- stitute. He is co-editor of The Journal of Libertarian Studies and the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, and has served as editor of other scholarly journals.