Assessment of the National Potential for High-Efficiency Cogeneration and Efficient District Heating
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
ASSESSMENT OF THE NATIONAL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-EFFICIENCY COGENERATION AND EFFICIENT DISTRICT HEATING December 2015 ASSESSMENT OF THE NATIONAL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-EFFICIENCY COGENERATION AND EFFICIENT DISTRICT HEATING Gestore dei Servizi Energetici December 2015 This report has been drawn up in compliance with Article 10 of Legislative Decree No 102/2014 implementing Directive 2012/27/EU on energy efficiency CONTENTS Introduction 7 1 The demand for heating and cooling 9 1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 The national energy balance .............................................................................................. 10 1.2.1 Consumption for heating and cooling 11 1.2.2 Derived heat 17 1.2.3 Variability of consumption 20 1.3 Residential sector............................................................................................................... 25 1.3.1 Breakdown of consumption by use 25 1.3.2 Demand for heating: geographical distribution 27 1.3.3 Map of municipalities and conurbations with a plot ratio of at least 0.3 31 1.4 Service sector..................................................................................................................... 36 1.4.1 Breakdown of consumption by use 36 1.4.2 Demand for heating: sectoral and geographical distribution 38 1.5 Industry .............................................................................................................................. 41 1.5.1 Breakdown of consumption by use 41 1.5.2 Map of industrial areas with a total annual heating and cooling consumption in excess of 20 GWh 43 1.6 Agriculture and fishery ...................................................................................................... 47 1.6.1 Breakdown of consumption by use 47 2 Cogeneration in the national stock of power plants 49 2.1 Thermal power stations ..................................................................................................... 49 2.1.1 Map of electricity generation installations with total annual production of more than 20 GWh 54 2.2 Cogeneration (CHP) plants................................................................................................ 56 2.3 High-efficiency cogeneration (CHP) plants ...................................................................... 60 2.3.1 High-efficiency CHP: plant technologies 63 2.3.2 High-efficiency CHP: geographical distribution 65 2.3.3 High-efficiency CHP: sectors of use 67 2.4 Overview of the national stock of power plants ................................................................ 69 3 District heating 71 3.1 Sectors of use ..................................................................................................................... 73 3.2 Evolution of district heating in Italy .................................................................................. 75 3.3 Energy sources and technologies....................................................................................... 76 3.4 Regional distribution of district heating units ................................................................... 82 3.4.1 Map of the existing district heating infrastructure and assessment of its efficiency 84 3.5 Existing district cooling networks ..................................................................................... 87 4 Supply of thermal energy for direct uses 89 4.1 Direct uses for heating and cooling by the different sectors ............................................. 89 4.2 Units and equipment in the residential sector.................................................................... 94 4.3 Availability of thermal energy from biomass and waste ................................................. 102 4.3.1 Civil sector (waste) 103 4.3.2 Agricultural sector 105 4.3.3 Forestry 108 4.3.4 Industry 110 4.4 Waste heat from industrial sites ...................................................................................... 110 5 Potential for HE CHP 113 5.1 Method used to analyse the potential for high-efficiency CHP and key for interpreting results 113 5.2 HE CHP potential in the residential sector ...................................................................... 116 5.2.1 Characteristics of heat demand in the residential sector 118 5.2.2 Technical potential in the residential sector 120 5.2.3 Analysis of costs and economic potential in the residential sector 124 5.2.4 Analysis of the benefits linked to development of potential in the residential sector 129 5.2.5 Demand evolution scenarios in the residential sector and impact on analysis of potential 130 5.3 Potential for HE CHP in the services sector .................................................................... 132 5.3.1 Characterisation of heat demand in the services sector 132 5.3.2 Technical potential in the services sector 133 5.3.3 Analysis of costs and economic potential in the services sector 137 5.3.4 Analysis of the benefits linked to development of potential in the services sector 141 5.3.5 Demand evolution scenarios in the services sector and impact on analysis of potential 144 5.4 Potential for HE CHP in the industrial sector ................................................................. 145 5.4.1 Characterisation of heat demand in the industrial sector 145 5 5.4.2 Technical potential in the industrial sector 145 5.4.3 Analysis of costs and economic potential in the industrial sector 150 5.4.4 Analysis of the benefits linked to development of potential in the industrial sector 154 5.4.5 Demand evolution scenarios in the industrial sector and impact on analysis of potential 155 5.4.6 Analytical Appendix - detailed tables for the industrial sector 156 6 Potential for efficient district heating 164 6.1 Heat demand .................................................................................................................... 166 6.2 Technical potential for District Heating .......................................................................... 168 6.2.1 Technical potential for efficient DH from natural gas 169 6.2.2 Technical potential for efficient DH from waste incineration 171 6.2.3 Technical potential for efficient DH from biomass 174 6.3 Network sizing and costs ................................................................................................. 175 6.4 Plant sizing and costs....................................................................................................... 177 6.4.1 Plants fuelled by natural gas 177 6.4.2 Plants fuelled by biomass 179 6.5 Economic potential for DH ............................................................................................. 181 6.5.1 Economic potential for efficient DH from natural gas 182 6.5.2 Economic potential for efficient DH from waste incineration 184 6.5.3 Economic potential for efficient DH from biomass 184 6.6 Potential increase in the efficiency of existing district heating networks ....................... 187 7 Summary of results 191 8 Appendix 193 8.1 HE CHP and DH: policies and objectives ....................................................................... 193 8.2 Current incentives ............................................................................................................ 193 8.2.1 Cogeneration 193 8.2.2 District heating 195 8.3 HE CHP and DH in Regional Energy Plans (PEAR) and other regional measures ........ 198 6 Introduction Article 14 of Directive 2012/27/EU on energy efficiency provides that by 31 December 2015, Member States shall carry out and notify to the Commission a comprehensive assessment of the potential for the application of high-efficiency cogeneration and efficient district heating and cooling. Article 10 of Legislative Decree No 102 of 4 July 2014, which implemented Directive 2012/27/EU, provides that the Energy Services Operator (Gestore dei Servizi Energetici - GSE) shall prepare and submit to the Ministry of Economic Development a report containing said assessment, taking the year 2013 as the baseline for the assessment. The information to be supplied in the report is listed in Annex 3 to the Decree. In particular, the study must include: • a description of the demand for heating and cooling and its projected evolution up to 2023; • maps showing the heating and cooling demand areas, in particular municipalities and urban areas with a plot ratio of at least 0.3 and industrial areas with total annual energy consumption for heating and cooling in excess of 20 GWh; • a map of the existing and planned district heating and cooling infrastructure; • a map of the supply of heating and cooling, in particular electricity generation installations with a total annual electricity output of more than 20 GWh, waste-to-energy plants and existing and planned cogeneration installations; • assessment of the demand for heating and cooling which can be met by high-efficiency CHP, high efficiency micro-CHP and efficient district heating and cooling; • identification of the potential for increasing high-efficiency CHP, by modernising industrial and power-generation installations or other plants producing waste heat, or by constructing new installations; • identification of the potential energy efficiency of district heating and district cooling infrastructure; • an estimate of possible primary and GHG emission savings. This report describes, for the year 2013, overall demand by sector, providing further details on the individual demand components that could be satisfied