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MTS Chapter 4 64 Mayor’s Transport Strategy – Part two Challenges, policies and proposals Mayor’s Transport Strategy – Part two, Challenges, policies and proposals Chapter four – Challenges and 65 strategic policies 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Supporting economic 107 Chapter three has set out the context for the development and population transport strategy: London’s transport system growth provides international, national, London-wide, sub-regional and local connections The way in 4.2.1 Supporting sustainable which different modes are used reflects the land population and employment growth use pattern of London, with marked differences between the CAZ, Inner and Outer London London’s growth London is forecast to experience significant 110 As highlighted in chapter three, London’s growth in population and employment which economy and population have expanded have implications for the transport strategy significantly since the early 1990s, and are projected to grow further in future In 2007, 108 This chapter describes the main challenges facing the city was home to 7 6 million people and 4 7 Chapter four the transport system within that context, and sets million jobs, generating about 24 million trips a out the policies required to meet the strategy’s day In spite of the current economic conditions, six goals The chapter considers each goal and its around 1 25 million more people – and more related challenges, as identified in Figure 2, in turn than 750,000 additional jobs – are expected to be accommodated in London by 2031, which in 109 This and the following chapter set out a number turn, will lead to at least three million more trips of policy commitments or requirements, which each day have implications for TfL and a range of other delivery partners, including the London boroughs, 111 Figure 17 shows recent trends in travel demand the GLA, LDA, ODA, Network Rail, the police and the forecast levels to 2031, assuming and DfT These commitments and requirements delivery of the current TfL Business Plan and fall into two categories: policies and proposals National Rail High Level Output Specification Policies are shown in red boxes, and proposals (HLOS) investment Use of public transport and in green The proposals that are directly related cycling will rise at a faster rate than population to the delivery of the policy are listed under it growth, while car use (for London as a whole) These proposals are then set out in chapter five It increases only marginally2 should be noted, however, that the strategy forms a complete package and all proposals contribute 112 Growth in freight movement is also expected, to some extent to achieving each of the strategy’s with the number of LGVs forecast to grow goals Details of proposals that are currently by up to 30 per cent between 2008 and 1 funded or unfunded are set out in chapter seven 2031, accounting for 15 per cent of traffic 1 Links between the MTS and London Plan policies can be found in Annex B 2 Travel in London 2, Table 2.1, TfL 2010. Trips are indexed to show relative differences in growth rates. They originate from data for complete one- way movements to, from or within London on an average day. In the base year (1993) there were 20.9 million trips daily in total (5.1 million public transport, 10.3 million private motorised transport, 0.3 million cycle, 5.2 million walk trips) Chapter four – Challenges and strategic policies 66 Mayor’s Transport Strategy Figure 17: London trends and forecast in population, employment and trip making, index from 1993 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2031 Cycling Public transport trips LGV† traffic Employment Walk trips All trips Population OGV* traffic Car trips * OGV: Other goods vehicle † LGV: Light goods vehicle Index (1993=100) London trends (since 1993) and 2031 projections for population, employment and trip-making – with TfL Business Plan and HLOS National Rail investment. The MTS package, including currently unfunded policies, will affect the trends in trips including achieving the Mayor’s aim of a 400 per cent increase in cycling from 2000. This assumes constant trip rates. However, trip rates may vary and hence these forecasts should be considered as indicative on London’s roads Freight tonnage carried in these neighbouring regions Rail demand by rail is expected to increase by 30 per cent (passenger kilometres) is projected to grow by nationally between 2006 and 2015, although approximately 35 per cent between 2006 and some 85 per cent of all freight movement will 2031 Many parts of the network are already remain carried by road at capacity or will reach it long before 2031 However, while planned improvements will Growth in demand for travel between London alleviate crowding on many routes, significant and neighbouring regions crowding will remain in certain key locations 113 Increases in trips in all areas are forecast, If no action is taken to increase London’s however, there is likely to be strong growth national connectivity by rail, growth will be in trips from outside the London area, constrained and more traffic will be forced reflecting the strong linkage between the on to already congested roads economies of London and the Greater South East and population and employment growth Chapter four – Challenges and strategic policies 67 Growth in demand for travel within London Policy 1 114 Strong growth in demand will occur in Inner The Mayor, through TfL, and working London as a result of significant increases with the DfT, Defra and other government in population and jobs in this part of the agencies, regional development agencies, city This will exert pressure on the already Network Rail, train operating companies, congested roads and more crowded public London boroughs and other stakeholders, transport in this area will seek to develop London’s transport system in order to accommodate sustainable 115 Demand increases on radial routes to central population and employment growth London puts pressure on the rail and Tube networks and increases crowding, while This policy is taken forward by the proposals increases in travel in Outer London tends to put in chapter five pressure on the road network (cars and buses) and hence increases congestion 4.2.2 Improving transport connectivity Chapter four 116 If London is to develop more sustainable 4.2.2.1 Supporting and developing patterns of growth and development, a more London’s international, national and effective integration of land use and transport inter-regional transport connectivity planning is needed CAZ and the Docklands will remain the focus for the most significant 118 London is an international city, rivalled only employment growth, and radial transport links by New York in its role in the global economy, will continue to be essential for commuting into and as such it is reliant on the international central London This growth will put further trade of skills, goods and services It is a pressure on these radial links and increases leading city destination in the world for the need for investment in new rail, the international travel, attracting around 15 Underground; and to make best use of the bus million international and 11 million UK network and manage the limited road space overnight visitors every year London also even better makes a vital contribution to the UK economy, generating 18 per cent of the country’s Gross 117 The London Plan also seeks to support the Value Added from only 13 per cent of the development and growth of Outer London in population It is also the centre of the Greater appropriate locations, such as the town centres South East, the fastest developing area in the (and thus closer to where people live) and country, and the 2012 Games will showcase strategic development centres This requires the city to a global audience improvement in radial connectivity to central London as well as improving transport links into metropolitan and other Outer London town centres Chapter four – Challenges and strategic policies 68 Mayor’s Transport Strategy 119 Sufficient, fast, efficient and reliable international, national and inter-regional links are therefore Policy 2 essential for continued success of the London The Mayor, through TfL, and working and UK economy Expanding access to business with the DfT, government agencies, and employment markets and improving the Network Rail, train operating companies, speed and reliability of passenger and freight London boroughs, coach operators and movements will maximise the efficiency of other transport stakeholders, will support business operations and improve productivity sustainable capacity enhancements to inter- A number of improvements are being delivered regional, national and international rail and over the next 10 years and further improvements coach services, high-speed rail hubs and the beyond 2017 will be required to ensure strategic road network serving London London remains a premier world city Improved This policy is taken forward by proposals: international, national and inter-regional links also 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 28, 48, 49 and 50 form part of the DfT’s national transport strategy, ‘Delivering a Sustainable Transport System’ 4.2.2.2 Increasing transport accessibility 120 The Mayor recognises the important role of (London-wide) aviation in providing international connectivity vital for London’s economy However, he 121 Better transport provision is key to improving believes the aviation industry should meet its full accessibility to jobs,
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