View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Skidmore College: Creative Matter Skidmore College Creative Matter Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects Economics 2019 NFL Betting Market Efficiency: Finding a Profitable Betting Strategy Spencer Anderson Skidmore College,
[email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://creativematter.skidmore.edu/econ_studt_schol Part of the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Anderson, Spencer, "NFL Betting Market Efficiency: Finding a Profitable Betting Strategy" (2019). Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects. 121. https://creativematter.skidmore.edu/econ_studt_schol/121 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Economics at Creative Matter. It has been accepted for inclusion in Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects by an authorized administrator of Creative Matter. For more information, please contact
[email protected]. NFL Betting Market Efficiency: Finding a Profitable Betting Strategy Spencer Anderson May 2, 2019 This thesis is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the course Senior Seminar (EC375), during the Spring Semester of 2018 While writing this thesis, I have not witnessed any wrongdoing, nor have I personally violated any conditions of the Skidmore College Honor Code. Name: Spencer Anderson Signature: __________________ Abstract This paper uses pregame spread data to attempt to analyze the efficiency of the NFL betting market. I look at hot hand betting, performance during prime-time games, home field advantage, and favorites to test for inefficiencies in the market, thereby uncovering a profitable betting strategy. Using OLS regression analysis, I find no evidence of a profitable betting strategy betting on teams on streaks or home underdogs.