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BeatingTheBookiesWithTheirOwnNumbers
Beating the bookies with their own numbers - and how the online sports betting market is rigged 1,2* 3* 4* Lisandro Kaunitz , Shenjun Zhong and Javier Kreiner 1- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. 2- Progress Technologies Inc., Tokyo, Japan. 3- Monash Biomedical Imaging Center, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. 4- Data Science department, CargoX, Sao Paulo, Brazil Corresponding authors: Lisandro Kaunitz / Javier Kreiner E-mail: [email protected] / [email protected] Abstract The online sports gambling industry employs teams of data analysts to build forecast models that turn the odds at sports games in their favour. While several betting strategies have been proposed to beat bookmakers, from expert prediction models and arbitrage strategies to odds bias exploitation, their returns have been inconsistent and it remains to be shown that a betting strategy can outperform the online sports betting market. We designed a strategy to beat football bookmakers with their own numbers. Instead of building a forecasting model to compete with bookmakers predictions, we exploited the probability information implicit in the odds publicly available in the marketplace to find bets with mispriced odds. Our strategy proved profitable -
Searching for Viable Betting Strategies in Gambling, with Consideration to Roulette
Searching for viable betting strategies in gambling, with consideration to Roulette Joseph Toninato UMD University Honors Capstone Project Introduction Gambling is one of the world’s oldest past times. Dice have been found in Egyptian tombs that are dated to be roughly 8000 years old. Since then, gambling has taken many different forms. Cards, dice, slots, wagers on sporting events, all of these fall under the umbrella of gambling. Whatever form it takes, all methods of gambling share the same structure. There is a game of chance, where people place wagers of money or assets or any multitude of things in the hopes of winning some amount of goods that are greater than their wager. Approximately 1.6 billion people worldwide reported gambling in some fashion in 2010. While many of these stated that they played the lottery, a large portion ventured into casinos. One of the most popular and iconic games in a casino is Roulette. This game is thought to originate from a perpetual motion machine invented in the 17th century, and played in its current form since before 1800. Roulette is a simple game in which a wheel is spun with numbered, colored, slots ranging from 0-36, and a double 0, or 00, in the American version. A ball is then allowed to spin around the outside of the wheel and fall into a random slot. This is the winning number. In addition, the numbers are colored either red or black, and the zero or zeros are colored green. A player may make one, or multiple, of many bets. -
NFL Betting Market Efficiency: Finding a Profitable Betting Strategy Spencer Anderson Skidmore College, [email protected]
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Skidmore College: Creative Matter Skidmore College Creative Matter Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects Economics 2019 NFL Betting Market Efficiency: Finding a Profitable Betting Strategy Spencer Anderson Skidmore College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://creativematter.skidmore.edu/econ_studt_schol Part of the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Anderson, Spencer, "NFL Betting Market Efficiency: Finding a Profitable Betting Strategy" (2019). Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects. 121. https://creativematter.skidmore.edu/econ_studt_schol/121 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Economics at Creative Matter. It has been accepted for inclusion in Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects by an authorized administrator of Creative Matter. For more information, please contact [email protected]. NFL Betting Market Efficiency: Finding a Profitable Betting Strategy Spencer Anderson May 2, 2019 This thesis is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the course Senior Seminar (EC375), during the Spring Semester of 2018 While writing this thesis, I have not witnessed any wrongdoing, nor have I personally violated any conditions of the Skidmore College Honor Code. Name: Spencer Anderson Signature: __________________ Abstract This paper uses pregame spread data to attempt to analyze the efficiency of the NFL betting market. I look at hot hand betting, performance during prime-time games, home field advantage, and favorites to test for inefficiencies in the market, thereby uncovering a profitable betting strategy. Using OLS regression analysis, I find no evidence of a profitable betting strategy betting on teams on streaks or home underdogs. -
Wager Guide Pimlico Race Course Oct03 Preakness
1/ST BET WAGER GUIDE PREAKNESS STAKES OCT03 PIMLICO RACE COURSE THOUSAND WORDS (6/1) 5 Owner: Albaugh Family Stable & Spendthrift Farm PRIMARY Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Florent Geroux STAKES NUMBER POSITIVE JESUS’ TEAM (30/1) 6 Owner: Grupo Seven C Stable Trainer: Jose D’Angelo Jockey: Jevian Toledo 145 NY TRAFFIC (15/1) Owner: John Fanelli, Cash is King, 7 LC Racing, Paul Braverman & Team Hanley Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr. Jockey: Horacio Karamanos EXCESSION (30/1) MAX PLAYER (15/1) 1 Owner: Calumet Farm 8 Owner: George Hall & SportBLX Trainer: Steve Asmussen Thoroughbreds Jockey: Sheldon Russell Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Paco Lopez MR. BIG NEWS (12/1) AUTHENTIC (9/5) Owner: Spendthrift Farm, Owner: Allied Racing Stable, LLC 2 9 MyRaceHorse Stable, Madaket Trainer: Bret Calhoun Stables & Starlight Racing Jockey: Gabriel Saez Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: John Velazquez ART COLLECTOR (5/2) PNEUMATIC (20/1) 3 Owner: Bruce Lunsford 10 Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds Trainer: Tom Drury Jr. Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Jockey: Joe Bravo SWISS SKYDIVER (6/1) LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE 4 Owner: Peter J. Callahan 11 (30/1) Trainer: Ken McPeek Owner: William H. Lawrence Jockey: Robby Albarado Trainer: Jorge Abreu Jockey: Trevor McCarthy 1ST.COM/BET 2 MEET THE PREAKNESS CONTENDERS By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD AUTHENTIC: He’s the wire-to-wire upset winner of the Kentucky Derby at over 8-1 odds for 6-time roses-wearing trainer Bob Baffert. The trainer’s record with Derby winners returning in Preakness is unblemished—5-for-5. Baffert won additional Preakness scrums with Derby disappointments Point Given and Lookin At Lucky for a record 7 wins in the traditional second leg of the Triple Crown. -
How to Win $250,000 a Year Playing Roulette! COPYRIGHT © 2017 by Silverthorne Publications Inc
Silverthorne Publications HHooww ttoo WWiinn $$225500,,000000 aa YYeeaarr PPllaayyiinngg RRoouulleettttee!! How to Win $250,000 a Year Playing Roulette! COPYRIGHT © 2017 by Silverthorne Publications Inc. All rights reserved. Except for brief passages used in legitimate reviews, no parts of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, without the written permission of the publisher. Address all inquiries to the publisher: Silverthorne Publications, Inc. Address all inquiries to the publisher: 848 N. Rainbow Blvd., Suite 601 Las Vegas, Nevada 89107 USA World rights reserved. Web Sites: www.GamblersBookcase.com www.KillerGamblingStrategies.com www.KnockoutSystems.com YouTube: Channel: Gamblers Bookcase Published in the United States of America The material contained in this book is intended to inform and educate the reader and in no way represents an inducement to gamble legally or illegally How to Play Roulette Professionally & Make $250,000 a Year! © 2017 Silverthorne Publications 2 Table of Contents Introduction 3 How My Colleagues Work this System to Create Continuous 6 Windfalls for Themselves The Secret is in the Details 10 The Power of the CRB Betting Strategy 11 Ladies and Gentlemen, Place Your Bets 17 The Power of "Hit and Run" Gambling 20 Let's Compare Using the Double Cross Roulette Strategy With 22 Other Options You May Have Why Not Get Rich in the Dark? 25 What Do You Get If You Decide to Try Out the Double Cross 27 Roulette Strategy? Procedures and Bets in Roulette 29 The Player's Edge 40 Setting Up Your Winning Game Plan 45 Pumping Up Your Bankroll 52 Planning and Reaching Your Profit Goals 57 Maximizing Your Profits 61 Rules to Help Your Keep Your Winnings 63 A Day in the Life of a Double Cross Roulette Player 65 How to Play Roulette Professionally & Make $250,000 a Year! © 2017 Silverthorne Publications 3 Introduction There is now a proven way you can use to make very high profits with lower risk than investing in stocks, starting a business or just about any other method of making money. -
Preakness Stakes .Fifty-Three Fillies Have Competed in the Preakness with Start in 1873: Rfive Crossing the Line First The
THE PREAKNESS Table of Contents (Preakness Section) History . .P-3 All-Time Starters . P-31. Owners . P-41 Trainers . P-45 Jockeys . P-55 Preakness Charts . P-63. Triple Crown . P-91. PREAKNESS HISTORY PREAKNESS FACTS & FIGURES RIDING & SADDLING: WOMEN & THE MIDDLE JEWEL: wo people have ridden and sad- dled Preakness winners . Louis J . RIDERS: Schaefer won the 1929 Preakness Patricia Cooksey 1985 Tajawa 6th T Andrea Seefeldt 1994 Looming 7th aboard Dr . Freeland and in 1939, ten years later saddled Challedon to victory . Rosie Napravnik 2013 Mylute 3rd John Longden duplicated the feat, win- TRAINERS: ning the 1943 Preakness astride Count Judy Johnson 1968 Sir Beau 7th Fleet and saddling Majestic Prince, the Judith Zouck 1980 Samoyed 6th victor in 1969 . Nancy Heil 1990 Fighting Notion 5th Shelly Riley 1992 Casual Lies 3rd AFRICAN-AMERICAN Dean Gaudet 1992 Speakerphone 14th RIDERS: Penny Lewis 1993 Hegar 9th Cynthia Reese 1996 In Contention 6th even African-American riders have Jean Rofe 1998 Silver’s Prospect 10th had Preakness mounts, including Jennifer Pederson 2001 Griffinite 5th two who visited the winners’ circle . S 2003 New York Hero 6th George “Spider” Anderson won the 1889 Preakness aboard Buddhist .Willie Simms 2004 Song of the Sword 9th had two mounts, including a victory in Nancy Alberts 2002 Magic Weisner 2nd the 1898 Preakness with Sly Fox “Pike”. Lisa Lewis 2003 Kissin Saint 10th Barnes was second with Philosophy in Kristin Mulhall 2004 Imperialism 5th 1890, while the third and fourth place Linda Albert 2004 Water Cannon 10th finishers in the 1896 Preakness were Kathy Ritvo 2011 Mucho Macho Man 6th ridden by African-Americans (Alonzo Clayton—3rd with Intermission & Tony Note: Penny Lewis is the mother of Lisa Lewis Hamilton—4th on Cassette) .The final two to ride in the middle jewel are Wayne Barnett (Sparrowvon, 8th in 1985) and MARYLAND MY Kevin Krigger (Goldencents, 5th in 2013) . -
Bloopers Join the Fun in Hollywood
ELK BestStudios proudly in presents mobile the world premier of Bloopers Join the fun in Hollywood Version 1.0 Hollywood!… In Hollywood there are two kinds of people. The ones in front of the camera and the ones behind! But in the end, we know who it’s all about – it’s all about the Stars! ...Right? Bloopers is an entertaining 5 reel slot, designed for Mobile First with symbols covering 100% of the mobile screen. It is a fairly volatile game, aimed at a maximized mobile casino experience. The game features 243 paylines. The theme is based on a chaotic movie set, where the important final scene is just about to be shot. The two main movie stars (in their own respective eyes, of course the most important person on the set) are a couple of proper divas, constantly fighting to outshine each other. The set is also littered with a team of small, charming characters – the Bloopers. All with various jobs, such as sound technician or makeup artist, they constantly stumble and fumble about, making life hard for the divas. Throughout the game there are five di!erent Bloopers to be discovered. It is always in the favor of the player when they appear. Handing out Random Wilds, Sticky Wilds and Expanding Wilds, the Bloopers have every flavour of Wild covered. And added to all this extravaganza the player is also treated to Falling Reels and Extra Free Spins. All in all, an award-winning gaming experience! Action! Full Screen game experience Sound Tech – Random Sticky Wilds Fix-it – Optimizing Symbol Shu!es Make Up – Extra Free Spins Full Screen game experience Cutter – Falling Symbols Stunt Man – Expanding Wilds Exciting Base Game Betting Strategies Support for portrait mode BETTING STRATEGIES Are you looking for more action? Many players change the bet size based on the outcome of previous gameplay. -
Table of Contents
Table of Contents Introduction ....................................................................1 1. Basic Strategy .................................................................5 2. How the Game Has Changed ....................................10 3. Choosing Your Count—The “KISS” Principle .........19 4. Psychological Profile of a Winning High-Stakes Player ......................................27 5. The High Roller ............................................................42 6. Your P&L Statement—Penetration and Longevity ..............................................................56 7. The Ultimate Gambit with Stanford Wong .............79 8. Crazy Surrender .........................................................105 9. For Green-Chip Players ............................................ 117 10. Blackjack Debates ......................................................135 11. Amazing and Amusing Incidents (All True) .........153 12. On Guises and Disguises ..........................................166 13. Psychological Aspects of the Game ........................178 Burning the taBles in las Vegas 14. Understanding Casino Thinking .............................198 15. Tips & Tipoffs .............................................................218 16. Managing Risk ...........................................................266 17. International Play ......................................................275 18. On Maintaining Physical and Mental Fitness .......291 19. Epilogue ......................................................................313 -
2016 Department of the Trea^Un Do Not Enter Social Security Numbers on This Form As It May Be Made Public
l efile GRAPHIC print - DO NOT PROCESS As Filed Data - DLN:93491359000007 OMB No 1545-0052 Form 990-PF Return of Private Foundation or Section 4947(a)(1) Trust Treated as Private Foundation 2016 Department of the Trea^un Do not enter social security numbers on this form as it may be made public. Internal Rev enue Ser ice ► ► Information about Form 990-PF and its instructions is at www.irs.gov/form990pf. For calendar year 2016, or tax year beginning 01-01-2016 , and ending 12-31-2016 Name of foundation LOUIS E AND PATRICE J WOLFSON FOUNDATION INC 59-2190031 Number and street (or P 0 box number if mail is not delivered to street address) Room/suite B Telephone number (see instructions) 10205 COLLINS AVE (305) 864-3313 City or town, state or province, country, and ZIP or foreign postal code BAL HARBOUR, FL 33154 C If exemption application is pending, check here q G Check all that apply q Initial return q Initial return of a former public charity D 1. Foreign organizations, check here ► El q Final return q Amended return 2. Foreign organizations meeting the 85% test , check here and attach com p utation ► El El Address change El Name change E If private foundation status was terminated H Check typ e of org anization q Section 501(c)(3) exempt private foundation under section 507(b)(1)(A), check here ► q Section 4947(a)(1) nonexempt charitable trust q Other taxable private foundation I Fair market value of all assets at end J Accounting method 9 Cash q Accrual F If the foundation is in a 60-month termination of year (from Part II, col (c), -
How Egms Work
AGRC DISCUSSION PAPER 8 How electronic gambling machines work EGM structural characteristics Dr Charles Livingstone AUSTRALIAN GAMBLING RESEARCH CENTRE ┃ JULY 2017 AUSTRALIAN GAMBLING RESEARCH CENTRE Summary The purpose of this paper is to provide policy makers, regulators and others with information about key design characteristics of electronic gambling machines (EGMs). These characteristics include auditory and visual cues, “game maths”, and price and prize structure. They also include elements in the games that render them attractive to EGM users, and which appear to be associated with the establishment of persistent game utilisation or addiction. It is hoped that a better understanding of these characteristics will help policy makers and regulators to frame policies and interventions that will reduce harm to gamblers from EGM use. KEY MESSAGES Electronic gambling machines (EGMs) are computers utilising sophisticated techniques, designed to maximise spending and “time on device” per user. EGM designs very successfully employ psychological principals to maximise users’ bet sizes and machine usage. These characteristics have the effect of increasing the addictive potential of EGMs. Users of EGMs, and policy makers as well, are mostly not well informed about the way the machines work, or the complex “game maths” behind them. Internationally, Australian EGMs are known for their ability to maximise users’ spending and “time on device”, yet Australia has been slow to develop adequate policy responses to reduce harms. 2 | Australian Institute of Family Studies What are electronic gambling machines? Electronic gambling machines (EGMs), known colloquially as “pokies”, have their origins in older style lever-operated machines which spun a series of physical reels, on which were portrayed a number of winning symbols. -
Toward Legalization of Poker: the Skill Vs. Chance Debate Robert C
Toward Legalization of Poker: The Skill vs. Chance Debate Robert C. Hannum* Anthony N. Cabot Abstract This paper sheds light on the age-old argument as to whether poker is a game in which skill predominates over chance or vice versa. Recent work addressing the issue of skill vs. chance is reviewed. This current study considers two different scenarios to address the issue: 1) a mathematical analysis supported by computer simulations of one random player and one skilled player in Texas Hold'Em, and 2) full-table simulation games of Texas Hold'Em and Seven Card Stud. Findings for scenario 1 showed the skilled player winning 97 percent of the hands. Findings for scenario 2 further reinforced that highly skilled players convincingly beat unskilled players. Following this study that shows poker as predominantly a skill game, various gaming jurisdictions might declare poker as such, thus legalizing and broadening the game for new venues, new markets, new demographics, and new media. Internet gaming in particular could be expanded and released from its current illegality in the U.S. with benefits accruing to casinos who wish to offer online poker. Keywords: Poker, games of skill, games of chance, mathematics The game of poker has become enormously popular over the last decade, in large part due to significantly increased Internet and television exposure. Tournament poker, in particular, has become a viable spectator sport with the advent of specialized cameras that allow the television audience to view the hidden cards of the players. This increased popularity and the uneven legal standing of the game in various jurisdictions has resulted in considerable media attention as well as debates over whether certain forms of poker should be legalized. -
2019 XB Belmont Wager Guide.Indd
June 8, 2019 Belmont Park 866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737) Welcome to Xpressbet’s Free Belmont Stakes Wager Guide! Fellow Racing Fan, With two di erent winners of the fi rst two legs of the Triple Crown (ok, maybe three) this season’s Belmont Stakes promises to be another wide-open a air. Expect a nearly full fi eld of runners prepared to dispute the outcome. That means there will be oodles of wagering options and corresponding healthy payo s. Horses and horseplayers will be challenged by the mile and one-half Test of the Champion. The equines are on their own, but Xpressbet is here to help players sort through Belmont Stakes contenders and pretenders. Preakness winner War of Will and runner-up Everfast fi gure to join Kentucky Derby third-place fi nisher Tacitus as Belmont headliners. Trainer Todd Pletcher is expected to saddle a pair of wild cards in Kentucky Derby grad Spino and lightly-raced Intrepid Heart. Xpressbet’s Free Belmont Stakes Wager Guide, hopefully, will point readers in the right direction. That’s why we’ve recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race—Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies. Inside the guide you’ll also fi nd useful Belmont Stats & Trends, a handy Exotic Wagering Chart and much more. This year we’ve even added Workout Analysis, too. Wager on the Belmont Stakes and worldwide Thoroughbred and harness racing with Xpressbet online, by phone or via mobile device. New account holders are eligible for up to a $500 bonus.