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Home , 1978 Belmont Stakes, 2018 Preakness Stakes, Aaron Gryder, Art Collector (horse), Believe It (horse), Beyer Speed Figure

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PREAKNESS STAKES OCT03 THOUSAND WORDS (6/1) 5 Owner: Albaugh Family Stable & Farm PRIMARY Trainer: : STAKES NUMBER

POSITIVE JESUS’ TEAM (30/1) 6 Owner: Grupo Seven C Stable Trainer: Jose D’Angelo Jockey: Jevian Toledo

145 NY TRAFFIC (15/1) Owner: John Fanelli, Cash is King, 7 LC Racing, Paul Braverman & Team Hanley Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr. Jockey: Horacio Karamanos

EXCESSION (30/1) MAX PLAYER (15/1) 1 Owner: 8 Owner: George Hall & SportBLX Trainer: Jockey: Sheldon Russell Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Paco Lopez

MR. BIG NEWS (12/1) (9/5) Owner: Spendthrift Farm, Owner: Allied Racing Stable, LLC 2 9 MyRaceHorse Stable, Madaket Trainer: Bret Calhoun Stables & Starlight Racing Jockey: Gabriel Saez Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: John Velazquez

ART COLLECTOR (5/2) PNEUMATIC (20/1) 3 Owner: Bruce Lunsford 10 Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds Trainer: Tom Drury Jr. Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Jockey: Joe Bravo

SWISS SKYDIVER (6/1) LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE 4 Owner: Peter J. Callahan 11 (30/1) Trainer: Ken McPeek Owner: William H. Lawrence Jockey: Trainer: Jorge Abreu Jockey: Trevor McCarthy

1ST.COM/BET 2 MEET THE CONTENDERS By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD

AUTHENTIC: He’s the wire-to-wire upset winner of the at over 8-1 odds for 6-time roses-wearing trainer Bob Baffert. The trainer’s record with Derby winners returning in Preakness is unblemished—5-for-5. Baffert won additional Preakness scrums with Derby disappointments and for a record 7 wins in the traditional second leg of the Triple Crown. This year, things are just a bit different (the understatement of all time). With the truncated 2020 already in the books, Preakness is presented one month – instead of two weeks – after the Kentucky Derby. A month between Derby and Preakness shouldn’t bother Authentic at all. So far, not much has. He’s lost just 1 of 6 starts and his Derby triumph shushed critics who had suggested the colt might be distance-challenged. While it’s possible that extra time between this year’s Derby and Preakness might permit a new face to adequately prepare to challenge Authentic for current sophomore preeminence, that mission will need to be completed on the racetrack…and it won’t be easy.

ART COLLECTOR: Unlucky to be forced to miss the Kentucky Derby with a slight hoof injury that necessitated antibiotic treatment, this colt figures as the main contender to Authentic— possibly early and late in the Preakness. First across the finish in 5 consecutive races by an average winning margin of 4.7 lengths, Art Collector was on fire heading into the Kentucky Derby. Since then he’s trained beautifully at . Detractors may point to Art Collector’s recent wins and claim that they came against colts ranked below the Grade 1 level. That would be true. He won three optional claimers at Churchill at distances from six furlongs to one mile and one-sixteenth, followed by the Grade 2 Blue Grass at one mile and one-eighth, plus a romp in the Ellis Park Derby at the same distance. Appearing among his well-vanquished foes is the talented , second to Art Collector in the Blue Grass. He’s got enough speed to be close in the early going and he’s also shown the ability to rate just off the pace. That versatility will find him in the race challenging Authentic from start to finish, and he’s worth a long look by anyone searching for a possible upsetter to the Derby winner.

THOUSAND WORDS: Trainer Bob Baffert’s ‘other’ Preakness entry, this son of was entered to run in the Kentucky Derby at 15-1 odds on the morning line. He made it as far as the Churchill Downs saddling paddock before becoming upset and flipping over, causing assistant trainer Jim Barnes to break his wrist, and necessitating a scratch from the race. He has worked well since then and sports 4 wins from 7 starts. He won his first 3 starts, including Grade 2 and 3 stakes. He then went sour in two subsequent starts and was off from mid-April until July 4 when he returned to finish second in the Grade 3 Los Alamitos Derby. He won the Shared Belief at Del Mar before his Derby disobedience. He’s not quite as good as Authentic or Art Collector, but could compete with the rest of these on his best day, especially if he makes it into the starting gate.

1ST.COM/BET 3 MEET THE PREAKNESS CONTENDERS By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD

SWISS SKYDIVER: don’t often face males in US dirt races, especially in Triple Crown events. That’s because it takes a special gal to triumph over male counterparts. Swiss Skydiver’s connections think she’s got what it takes to win the 2020 Preakness. On paper, they’ve got a point. She’s won 5 of 10 races and earned over $1.1 million. She’s got enough speed to be close to the early pace and her best races fit according to speed figures. The daughter of Daredevil also will get a 3-pound weight allowance in the one mile and three-sixteenths test. She proved second-best in the behind last out, but convincingly won the Alabama at Saratoga before that. A Preakness win would be an accomplishment for the ages. Five fillies have won the Preakness out of 55 attempts. This Ken McPeek trainee previously faced males in ’s Grade 2 Blue Grass, where she finished second to Art Collector, whom she’ll meet again Saturday.

MR. BIG NEWS: Third in the Kentucky Derby at a monstrous 46-1, this son of Giant’s Causeway closed ground to check in behind Authentic and favored . He’s won just 2 of 8 starts—a Fair Grounds maiden and the Oaklawn Stakes—so he’s not expected to be as big a threat to win the Preakness as to possibly hit the board. His closing style often finds him losing ground on turns and sometimes encountering trouble in large fields. That’s what happened when he was shuffled back in the Grade 2 Blue Grass even though he re-rallied to finish sixth, beaten 10 lengths by Art Collector. The Preakness pace has to heat up to cater to his late finish and there doesn’t seem to be an abundance of early speed signed on; so he seems like an in-the-money play at best.

PNEUMATIC: Rested after a well-beaten fourth in the truncated Belmont Stakes, this son of Uncle Mo enters Preakness off a solid score in the Pegasus at Monmouth Park. That was his third win out of 5 career tries. His running style ought to place him just behind the early pacesetters with plans to duplicate the late kick he had last out. He worked a bullet (best of 14) 1:00.80 five-eighths of a mile over the Saratoga training track in preparation for this.

MAX PLAYER: This consistent son of Honor Code finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby in his first start for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. It was another consistent effort for a colt who also finished third in both the Grade 1 Travers and Belmont Stakes for then trainer Linda Rice. If he starts in the Preakness, he will be the only soph to have appeared in all 4 of those major 3-year-old races. He’ll need to make up several lengths on Derby winner Authentic, and he usually loses ground on the turns, but he’s got a grinding style that fits well in here for an in-the-money finish.

LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE: Following a maiden claiming victory at the $62,500 level as a 2-year-old, this colt by needed 6 additional starts before making a return visit to the winner’s circle in a Saratoga allowance race. Buoyed by that effort, the colt managed a second-placing next out in the Grade 2 behind anticipated Preakness foe Mystic Guide. Liveyourbeastlife has won 2 of 8 starts with 1 second and 1 third. He’s expected to race from well off the early Preakness pace for trainer Jorge Abreu.

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Promotional offer valid through 12/31/2020. Open to new 1/ST signups only. Customer will receive $10 wagering credit after signup. Additional wagering credits will be deposited in $10 increments for every $100 wageredPromotional within offer 30 valid days through of sign up.12/31/2020. To qualify Open for full to $500 new 1/STwagering signups credit, only. new Customer account will holders receive must $10 wagerwagering $5,000 credit within after 30signup. calendar Additional days of wagering sign up. Wagerscredits willthat be are deposited refunded in or $10 cancelled increments will not for beevery counted $100 wageredas eligible within wagers. 30 days Promotional of sign up. wagering To qualify credits for full will $500 be deposited wagering credit,by 1/ST new into account your account holders within must five wager business $5,000 days within of reaching 30 calendar each days $10 increment.of sign up. Wagers Wagering that credits are refunded are different or cancelled from cash, will andnot becannot counted be transferred,as eligible wagers. redeemed Promotional or withdrawn. wagering Unused credits wagering will be credits deposited will be by withdrawn1/ST into your 30 daysaccount after within they arefive deposited.business days Must of be reaching 18 or older each (21 $10 in AL,increment. AZ, IA, IN, Wagering KS, NH, creditsND, WA) are to differentopen an accountfrom cash, with and 1/ST cannot BET andbe transferred, redeemed or residewithdrawn. in a state Unused where wagering such activity credits is will legal. be withdrawnVoid where 30 prohibited. days after Cannot they are be deposited. combined Must with anybe 18 other or older offer. (21 National in AL, AZ, Gambling IA, IN, KS, Support NH, ND, Line WA) 800.522.4700. to open an account with 1/ST BET and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. Cannot be combined with any other offer. National Gambling Support Line 800.522.4700. WHICH FACTORS FILL YOUR PREAKNESS TOOLBOX? By Jeremy Plonk, @HorsePlayerNow

The 1/ST BET app uses more than 50 factors in evaluating each horse in a race, drawing from a library of more than 200,000 previous races to match past success with future success. 1/ST BET automatically matches and ranks the proven, most successful factors in each race, and also gives you the ability to select your own set of factors to make personalized, artificial intelligence-based selections in mere seconds. Once the final field is set for Preakness, the 1/ST INDEX selections for the big race will be published in our updated 1/ST Preakness Wager Guide (available Thursday, October 1).

But which of the 50+ factors do you find most important when identifying your Preakness horse? We tasked handicapper Jeremy Plonk to provide his top factors from the 1/ST BET app that fit his personal handicapping preferences for this year’s unique, final jewel in the Triple Crown. Visit 1st.com/bet to learn more about each of the handicapping factors.

RACE RECORD FACTORS

Jeremy’s Take: In the Preakness Stakes historically, you’re looking for a horse with recent race experience and proven class. It hasn’t been an event kind to those rising in class or those who have been away from the races for an extended period. Don’t overemphasize the last finish; consider last year’s Derby-to-Preakness rebound by and that of in 2013. • Days Since Last Race: The number of days since the horse’s most recent start. Healthy horses race every 3-8 weeks. • Last Race Class: The Class value of a race is computed by looking at all the horses in a race. 1/ST BET looks at how fast those horses have run in their careers, over the last few races, how much they have earned lifetime, as well as the purse values. • Avg. Last 3 Race Classes: The average class value for the last 3 races the horse has run in. • Average Last 3 Purses: The average of the last 3 purse values of the races the horse was in. • In The Money Percent: The percentage of times the horse has finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in his career. • Horses beaten (% average placement last 5 races): This number looks at which position a horse finished in a race and determines how many horses he beat in that race.

SPEED FACTORS

Jeremy’s Take: Being fast always matters, and the Preakness is no different. Not only are you looking for horses who are consistently fast, but capable on their most brilliant day of popping fastest of all. This race comes at the end of a long 3-year-old campaign this year, so which of the runners can tap into their best? And, more importantly, is that best good enough to best the rest? • Best Lifetime Speed Number: This is the best speed number the horse has run in its lifetime regardless of distance, surface, or track condition. • Best Speed Last 3: When considering the horse’s last 3 races, this is the highest number earned in those three. • Avg. Best 2 of Last 3: This factor looks at the last 3 races, finds the best 2 speed numbers of the three and averages those. This can be a powerful factor since it tosses the lowest number, which may have been due to circumstances beyond a horse’s control.

PACE FACTORS

Jeremy’s Take: We know horses battling for the front win about two-thirds of all dirt races in North America, and the Preakness has long been a race that’s shined on horses with tactical speed. Outside of ’s deep rally as a mud freak in 2016, and legends (2007) and Point Given (2001), you’re hard-pressed to find a Preakness champ who came from more than 5 lengths back over the past 2 decades. Consider the early pace figures (E1, E2) important, but, again, don’t get sold on just the last number. • Avg. of last 3 E1 pace: Represents the average of the last 3 E1 pace figures the horse has earned. • Avg. of last 3 E2 pace: Represents the average of the last 3 E2 pace figures the horse has earned.

1ST.COM/BET 6 FACTORS THROUGH HISTORY 1/ST $10 CREDIT+ BET $500 BONUS PREAKNESSPROMO CODE: SPORTOFKINGS STAKES 2015-2019 We searched the 1/ST BET archives to re-examine the last 5 editions of the Preakness Stakes. See where the winners ranked best in their respective fields in terms of handicapping factors, and look for those commonalities with this year’s runners when using the 1/ST BET app to handicap the final jewel in the Triple Crown. As you’ll see, the 1/ST BET app has delivered the last 5 Preakness winners among its top 3 factor category leaders – , Exaggerator, , and War of Will. Learn More.

2019 2018 - CONTINUED 2016

WAR OF WILL EXAGGERATOR WINNER: AVG. OFF-TRACK EARNINGS WINNER: RANKED FIRST IN 13 FACTORS: RANKED FIRST IN 6 FACTORS BEST LIFETIME SPEED LAST PURSE HORSES DEFEATED % LAST E2 PACE LAST RACE CLASS AVG. SPEED BEST 2 OF LAST 3 AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIME BEST SPEED TURF LAST E1 PACE AVG. SPEED LAST 3 AVG. TURF EARNINGS TRAINER-JOCKEY WIN % 2 YEARS TRAINER CURRENT YEAR DAYS SINCE LAST RACE AVG. OF LAST 3 E1 PACE AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 JOCKEY TRAINER ROI MEET BEST SPEED LAST 3 LAST E1 PACE AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S TRACK WIN % HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: BEST SPEED TODAY’S TRACK JOCKEY WIN % 6 MONTHS (11), UNCLE LINO (8), T/J COMBO WIN % MEET JOCKEY WIN % 1 YEAR TRAINER CURRENT MEET EXAGGERATOR (6) DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: DIRT PEDIGREE RATING JUSTIFY (22), QUIP (13), 2015 TURF PEDIGREE RATING AND LONE SAILOR (5) WINNER: AMERICAN PHAROAH HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: RANKED FIRST IN 17 FACTORS: WAR OF WILL AND IMPROBABLE (13), AVG LAST 3 PURSE 2017 WARRIOR’S CHARGE (7) LAST PURSE WINNER: CLOUD COMPUTING AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S DISTANCE DAYS SINCE LAST RACE 2018 RANKED FIRST IN 6 FACTORS LAST RACE CLASS LAST E2 PACE BEST SPEED THIS DISTANCE WINNER: JUSTIFY AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIME SPEED LAST RACE RANKED FIRST IN 22 FACTORS AVG. SPEED LAST 3 BEST SPEED ALL WEATHER AVG. SPEED LAST 3 TRAINER CURRENT YEAR HORSES DEFEATED % AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S DISTANCE AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 AVG LIFETIME EARNINGS LAST E2 PACE LAST E1 PACE BEST SPEED THIS DISTANCE BEST SPEED OFF TRACK BEST SPEED OFF TRACK HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: AVG OFF TRACK EARNINGS BEST SPEED FAST TRACK MULTIPLIER (13), AVG ALL WEATHER EARNINGS AVG. LIFETIME EARNINGS (9), CLOUD COMPUTING (6) TRAINER WIN % 6 MONTHS BEST SPEED LAST RACE TRAINER CURRENT YEAR LAST FINISH POSITION TRAINER WIN % 1 YEAR FACTOR CATEGORIES: Justify (2018) AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 PACE = PERFORMANCE TRAINER WIN % 1 YEAR TRAINER CURRENT YEAR = RESULTS HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: = JOCKEY+ TRAINER AMERICAN PHAROAH (18), = PEDIGREE (11), DIVINING ROD (7)

1ST.COM/BET 7 1/ST INDEX: PREAKNESS STAKES 1/ST $10 CREDIT+ BET $500 BONUS ARTIFICIALPROMO CODE: SPORTOFKINGS INTELLIGENCE PICKS The 1/ST INDEX analyzes millions of data points over more than 50 important handicapping factors to create an exclusive handicapping tool that instantly puts the power of years of experience in the palm of your hand. Use the AI-assisted selections or create and analyze your own factors ONLY in the 1/ST BET App. Learn More

HORSE WIN% PLACE% SHOW% FAIR ODDS

1 EXCESSION 3% 6% 10% 30/1

2 MR. BIG NEWS 6% 15% 24% 15/1

3 ART COLLECTOR 8% 15% 33% 12/1

4 SWISS SKYDIVER 14% 34% 50% 6/1

5 THOUSAND WORDS 6% 13% 27% 15/1

6 JESUS’ TEAM 4% 8% 9% 25/1

7 NY TRAFFIC 10% 19% 29% 9/1

8 MAX PLAYER 10% 30% 37% 9/1

9 AUTHENTIC 33% 43% 53% 2/1

10 PNEUMATIC 3% 9% 20% 30/1

11 LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE 4% 8% 9% 25/1

1ST.COM/BET 8 1/ST INDEX: PIMLICO 10/3 1/ST $10 CREDIT+ BET $500 BONUS ARTIFICIALPROMO CODE: SPORTOFKINGS INTELLIGENCE PICKS

Race # - Post Time Win Place Show Fair Odds Race # - Post Time Win Place Show Fair Odds

RACE 1 (11:00AM ET) // SELIMA S. ($150K) RACE 6 (2:01PM ET) // G2 DINNER PARTY S. ($250K)

4 DOMAIN EXPERTISE 33% 48% 53% 2/1 7 FACTOR THIS 26% 51% 64% 5/2

2 GOLDEN VOICE 20% 31% 53% 4/1 2 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN 25% 42% 59% 3/1

1 FLUFFY SOCKS 14% 33% 57% 6/1 3 HEMBREE 17% 33% 50% 5/1

3 INVINCIBLE GAL (GB) 9% 27% 42% 10/1 6 DOCTOR MOUNTY 10% 25% 42% 10/1

RACE 2 (11:35AM ET) // G3 S. ($150K) RACE 7 (2:42PM ET) // G3 DE FRANCIS DASH ($200K)

3 SHE’SONTHEWARPATH 31% 48% 61% 5/2 5 LANDESKOG 28% 48% 59% 5/2

1 JULIET FOXTROT (GB) 19% 35% 51% 9/2 3 EASTERN BAY 19% 32% 47% 9/2

8 VARENKA 11% 34% 46% 9/1 1 ADMIRAL LYNCH 16% 27% 40% 5/1

6 STORM THE HILL 11% 29% 43% 9/1 4 LAKI 12% 27% 37% 8/1

RACE 3 (12:10PM ET) // SKIPAT S. ($100K) RACE 8 (3:22PM ET) // LAUREL FUTURITY ($150K)

6 BRONX BEAUTY 30% 52% 65% 5/2 8 HIDDEN ENEMY (IRE) 18% 30% 42% 9/2

5 BYE BYE J 28% 40% 60% 5/2 9 TIJUANA BRASS 17% 32% 44% 5/1

1 CHALON 11% 30% 49% 9/1 10 NAUTILUS 15% 32% 45% 6/1

4 LIZA STAR 10% 32% 50% 10/1 4 KIDNAPPED 11% 22% 32% 9/1

RACE 4 (12:46PM ET) // HILLTOP S. ($100K) RACE 9 (4:02PM ET) // JAMES W. MURPHY S. ($100K)

2 CHART 30% 40% 53% 5/2 11 BUY LAND AND SEE 30% 40% 51% 5/2

4 AMERICAN GIANT 10% 23% 28% 10/1 1 CHOCOLATE BAR 10% 23% 27% 10/1

3 CARAVEL 10% 20% 33% 10/1 13 BYE BYE MELVIN 10% 20% 32% 10/1

11 LUCKY JINGLE 10% 14% 28% 10/1 7 VANZZY 10% 14% 27% 10/1

RACE 5 (1:22PM ET) // G3 MISS PREAKNESS S. ($150K) RACE 10 (4:41PM ET) // G2 BLACK-EYED SUSAN S. ($250K)

5 MUNDAYE CALL 29% 50% 63% 5/2 5 BONNY SOUTH 28% 42% 53% 5/2

1 AIN’T NO ELMERS 20% 34% 51% 4/1 8 HOPEFUL GROWTH 14% 30% 38% 6/1

3 FLY ON ANGEL 17% 29% 43% 5/1 9 MISS MARISSA 11% 32% 43% 9/1

7 PRINCESS CADEY 13% 29% 40% 7/1 10 LANDING ZONE 10% 17% 30% 10/1

1ST.COM/BET 9 PREAKNESS STAKES WAGERING FACTS Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Preakness Stakes events.

WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS DERBY WINNERS IN PREAKNESS (Last 20 Years, Odds to $1) (Last 15 Years) Win Odds: Average: 4.65 Year Horse Fin. Odds. High: 15.40 (Oxbow, 2013) 2019 -did not compete- Low: .20 (, 2008) 2018 Justify 1st 2-5* Notable: Preakness winner has been 6-1 or less in 16 of the 2017 Always Dreaming 8th 6-5* last 20 years. 2016 Nyqust 3rd 3-5* 2015 American Pharoah 1st 4-5* Place Odds: Average: 14.59 2014 1st 1-2* High: 45.70 (, 2002) 2013 4th 3-5* Low: 1.30 (, 2007) 2012 I’ll Have Another 1st 3-1 Notable: The runner-up has been 15-1 or more odds in 4 of the 2011 2nd 2-1* last 5 years, including 29-1 Everfast in 2019. 2010 8th 9-5* 2009 2nd 6-1 Show Odds: Average: 12.44 2008 Big Brown 1st 1-5* High: 31.70 (Senior Investment, 2017) 2007 Street Sense 2nd 6-5* Low: .70 (Nyquist, 2016) 2006 dnf 1-2* Notable: Nyquist (2016) is the only Preakness favorite to finish 2005 Giacomo 3rd 6-1 third in the last 20 years. *Preakness Favorite

EXACTA PAYOFFS LONGSHOT WINNERS (Last 20 years, $2 Payoffs) (15-1 or More, All-Time) Average: $146.40 $2 Payoff Horse Year High: $947.00 (War of Will-Everfast, 2019) $48.80 1975 Low: $18.20 (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin, 2014) $45.60 1925 Notable: 17 of the last 20 exactas have had at least 1 horse 3-1 $40.70 1926 or less on the ticket. $39.40 1972 $32.80 Oxbow 2013 TRIFECTA PAYOFFS $32.00 1900 (Last 20 years, $1 Payoffs) $32.00 1907 Average: $816.45 High: $4,699.80 (War of Will-Everfast-Owendale, 2019) HIGHEST-PRICED SUPERFECTA FINISHERS Low: $35.40 (I’ll Have Another-Bodemeister-Creative Cause, 2012) (Last 15 Years, Odds to $1) Notable: Last year’s payoff was the largest trifecta in Preakness Odds Horse Year Fin. history, which began offering the bet in 1987. 39.90 2008 2ND 31.70 Senior Investment 2017 3RD SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS 29.40 Hemingway’s Key 2006 3RD (Last 20 years, $1 Payoffs) 29.30 Everfast 2019 3RD Average: $5,997.93 (Average Odds of Fourth-place finishers is 11.6-1) 28.50 Tale of Verve 2015 2ND High: $51,924 (War of Will-Everfast-Owendale-Warrior’s Charge, 2019) 26.10 Tenfold 2018 3RD Low: $173.80 (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin-Social Inclusion- 25.40 Flying Private 2009 4TH General A Rod, 2014) 25.10 Racecar Rhapsody 2008 4TH Notable: Last year’s superfecta payout of $51,924 was more than $33,000 larger than any previous return in the bet’s 22-year history.

1ST.COM/BET 10 PREAKNESS STAKES EXPERT PICKS We tasked our expert racing analysts across the 1/ST family to provide their selections for this year’s final jewel in the Triple Crown.

JEFF ZOE JOHN MILLIE SIEGEL CADMAN DESANTIS BALL @jsiegelracing @zoecadman @XBJohnnyD @camillayakteen

AUTHENTIC ART COLLECTOR ART COLLECTOR AUTHENTIC ART COLLECTOR THOUSAND WORDS AUTHENTIC ART COLLECTOR PNEUMATIC MR. BIG NEWS SWISS SKYDIVER SWISS SKYDIVER MR. BIG NEWS SWISS SKYDIVER MAX PLAYER LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE

JON MICHELLE RON JEREMY WHITE YU NICOLETTI PLONK @PostTimeJon @TheMichelleYu @ronic17 @horseplayernow

AUTHENTIC AUTHENTIC ART COLLECTOR AUTHENTIC ART COLLECTOR ART COLLECTOR MAX PLAYER ART COLLECTOR SWISS SKYDIVER SWISS SKYDIVER AUTHENTIC LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE PNEUMATIC MR. BIG NEWS MR. BIG NEWS SWISS SKYDIVER

MATT STAN EDDIE BRENT DINERMAN SALTER OLCZYK MUSBURGER @3coltshandicap @MDHorseRadio @brentmusburger

ART COLLECTOR AUTHENTIC ART COLLECTOR AUTHENTIC AUTHENTIC ART COLLECTOR AUTHENTIC ART COLLECTOR PNEUMATIC SWISS SKYDIVER LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE SWISS SKYDIVER SWISS SKYDIVER PNEUMATIC MAX PLAYER THOUSAND WORDS

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CHAMPIONSHIP MAY BE ON LINE PREAKNESS HISTORY By Jeff Siegel, @jsiegelracing THE LAST...

ANALYSIS: This year’s Preakness won’t produce a Triple Crown winner, but it could KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER TO WIN: decide an Eclipse Award in the 3-year-old male division. Hard to believe? Well, after JUSTIFY (2018) AUTHENTIC fought off odds-on Kentucky Derby favorite Tiz the Law at Churchill Downs to register a legitimate, highly-rated victory, his 2020 record of four wins (with KENTUCKY DERBY RUNNER-UP TO WIN: one second) in five starts suddenly compares very favorably with the colt that most EXAGERRATOR (2016) assumed had wrapped up divisional honors before the calendar had even flipped to July. Tiz the Law can’t gain any revenge in Maryland, he’s staying home. So, KENTUCKY DERBY SHOW HORSE TO WIN: while AUTHENTIC may be a need-the-lead type – and credit trainer Bob Baffert for CURLIN (2007) recognizing this prior to the Run for the Roses – he should have every chance to add KENTUCKY DERBY OFF THE BOARD another classic win to his glittering resume against a field that on paper promises to hand him another uncontested lead. FINISHER TO WIN: WAR OF WILL (2019) MAIN CONTENDERS: ART COLLECTOR, not AUTHENTIC, was the colt considered to KENTUCKY DERBY EXACTA TO REPEAT 1-2 be Tiz the Law’s most serious rival in the Derby; but the winner of five straight races (one was taken away due to a bad test) came up with a hoof problem a few days before IN PREAKNESS: the race and wasn’t even entered. He’s healthy now – a spectacular workout, his best I’LL HAVE ANOTHER-BODEMEISTER (2012), ever, at Churchill Downs Sept. 19 shows he hasn’t lost a step. Trip handicappers can PRIOR TO THAT - (1999) easily envision the son of Bernardini drafting into a cozy, stalking position behind AUTHENTIC and then mounting a serious challenge from the quarter-pole home. KENTUCKY DERBY TRIFECTA TO REPEAT Tiz the Law enjoyed the same kind of trip in Louisville, but could never get by. ART 1-2-3 IN PREAKNESS: COLLECTOR, fresh, improving and extremely dangerous, just might. -- (1978)

VALUE PLAYS: PNEUMATIC (20-1) received a confidence-building win in the listed NON-KENTUCKY DERBY ALUM TO WIN: Pegasus at Monmouth Park, doing so with authority and career-top number. He may CLOUD COMPUTING (2017); PRIOR RACHEL not be good enough to win, but with another forward move, he can at least hit the ALEXANDRA (2009) board at a big price. MR. BIG NEWS (12-1) has raced 8 times, and in every start his has taken a forward move, his most recent triple-digit career-top PREPPED LAST AT PIMLICO TO WIN: accomplished when a willing third in the Kentucky Derby. He’s a relentless closing- BEE BEE BEE (1972) type, so trifecta players probably should use him somewhere on their ticket. JOCKEY TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK:

$100 WAGERING STRATEGY: (2014-’15) WITH CALIFORNIA • $20 Exacta Box: AUTHENTIC and ART COLLECTOR ($40) CHROME AND AMERICAN PHAROAH • $5 Exacta Box: AUTHENTIC, ART COLLECTOR, PNEUMATIC ($30) JOCKEY TO WIN HIS DEBUT: • $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: AUTHENTIC over ART COLLECTOR, PNEUMATIC, MR. BIG NEWS ($30) TYLER GAFFALIONE (2019) ABOARD WAR OF WILL

TOP 4 PICKS

1. AUTHENTIC 3. PNEUMATIC 2. ART COLLECTOR 4. MR. BIG NEWS

1ST.COM/BET 13 PREAKNESS STAKES GRADE 1 - $1,000,000 3YO – 1 3/16 MILES (DIRT)

TASK TOUGHENS FOR AUTHENTIC STATS & TRENDS By Jeremy Plonk, @HorsePlayerNow 2019 PREAKNESS HANDLE TOTALS (Handle in Millions Except for Double) ANALYSIS: Eleventh-hour field inclusions of fleet SWISS SKYDIVER and NY TRAFFIC Pool Handle Win,Place, Show: $21.8 have altered the path to Preakness glory for the favorite, the Bob Baffert-trained Trifecta: $13.2 AUTHENTIC. While he’s still clearly the horse to beat, the Kentucky Derby winner Exacta: $11.8 now must present a more staunch performance than what was expected a week ago Superfecta: $6.8 when only ART COLLECTOR looked to be in his pace league. Still, AUTHENTIC will be Pick Four: $3.1 Baffert’s sixth Kentucky Derby winner to bound into Baltimore, and he is yet to lose Black-Eyed Susan/ here with one of those. Preakness Double: $810,332

HALF-MILE LEADERS MAIN CONTENDERS: AUTHENTIC, give or take a few strides, has been behind just Year Horse Fin. 3 horses for any length of time in his 6-race career. He displays the high cruising 2019 Warrior’s Charge 4th speed and late, video-game spurt evident in so many Baffert trainees over the years. 2018 Justify 1st The Preakness pace plays to his favor. While not as mechanically efficient or mentally 2017 Always Dreaming 8th connected as American Pharoah or Justify, his raw physical ability has amassed a near- 2016 Nyquist 3rd 2015 American Pharoah 1st perfect resume. The 4-week span from Derby to Preakness is the quickest of his career, 2014 Pablo Del Monte 6th a week shorter than between his second and Haskell victory. But 2013 Oxbow 1st Baffert trainees rarely ever ‘bounce.’ ART COLLECTOR, by Preakness winner Bernardini, 2012 Bodemeister 2nd blitzed all 4 fields he faced this year since coming to Tommy Drury’s barn. His Grade 2011 Flashpoint 14th 2 Blue Grass score was flattered when his pursuers came back to win the Grade 1 2010 2nd Alabama and Grade 2 Mile, as well as finish third in the Kentucky Derby, the latter PREAKNESS WINNERS WHO SKIPPED DERBY by way of MR. BIG NEWS. Since then, ART COLLECTOR has trained well and shown no (Since 1970) effects of the minor foot injury that kept him out of the Run for the Roses. Filly SWISS Year Horse SKYDIVER has had a remarkably successful, but difficult campaign and travel. This is an 2017 Cloud Computing ambitious spot after a Kentucky Oaks that was short of her best, but she’s respected. 2009 2006 Bernardini VALUE PLAYS: If this race comes down to AUTHENTIC and ART COLLECTOR, as it should, 2000 1983 those seeking a big return for a small investment will need to find a longshot exotics player. 1982 Aloma’s Ruler Sire Ghostzapper’s offspring have a profitable ROI and are 20% winners on the Pimlico 1980 dirt. Strong-finishing LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE has continued to improve, the pace scenario 1972 Bee Bee Bee has turned favorable and will pair with Maryland’s leading rider Trevor McCarthy. ? KNOW THIS $100 WAGERING STRATEGY: • $50 Trifecta: AUTHENTIC with ART COLLECTOR with LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE ($50) War of Will (2019) became the 16th Preakness • $20 Exacta: AUTHENTIC with LIVE YOUR BEAST LIFE ($20) winner since 1900 to have rebounded from a • $20 Trifecta: ART COLLECTOR with AUTHENTIC with LIVEYOURBEAST LIFE ($20) Kentucky Derby finish of fifth or worse. • $10 Exacta: ART COLLECTOR with LIVE YOUR BEAST LIFE ($10)

TOP 4 PICKS

1. AUTHENTIC 3. LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE 2. ART COLLECTOR 4. SWISS SKYDIVER

1ST.COM/BET 14 PREAKNESS STAKES GRADE 1 - $1,000,000 3YO – 1 3/16 MILES (DIRT) 8TH PREAKNESS WIN FOR BAFFERT LOOMS By , @brentmusburger

ANALYSIS: Never bet against Bob Baffert in the Preakness, especially when he brings in a Kentucky Derby winner. He and 19th century trainer R. Wyndham Walden share the record with 7 victories each in this race. Baffert can have it all to himself if either AUTHENTIC or THOUSAND WORDS wins this first-ever autumn running of the Preakness. When he brings a Kentucky Derby winner to Baltimore, Baffert is 5-for-5, and AUTHENTIC is favored to maintain that perfect record. His two most-recent Preakness wins came with Triple Crown champions American Pharoah and Justify. Obviously there will be no such sweep this year; the Belmont Stakes is long past, and the winner Tiz The Law will not be at Pimlico. But AUTHENTIC is certainly in the running for Horse of the Year if he meets the expectations of the betting public. Hall of Fame jockey John Velázquez is up again as he was in the Derby, and he will be looking to complete the career Triple Crown on a colt that has won 5 of his 6 starts. AUTHENTIC’S only loss was a runner- up finish to the now-retired Honor A. P. in the Santa Anita Derby, and that was before Velázquez came aboard.

MAIN CONTENDERS: I will nominate ART COLLECTOR to chase AUTHENTIC home. I his rider Brian Hernandez Jr., who, as Jay Privman pointed out in his story for the Daily Racing Form, is from Rajin’ Cajun country and one of the most respected jockeys in the business. Hernandez has been aboard ART COLLECTOR in the morning for trainer Tommy Drury, who would have been asked to hand the horse off to trainer Rusty Arnold had he not done such a good job with him during the spring. Before he grabbed a quarter in a morning gallop to knock himself out of the Kentucky Derby, ART COLLECTOR won all 4 of his starts this year, including the Blue Grass. The surprise to me was trainer Kenny McPeek’s entry of SWISS SKYDIVER, the runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks and the first filly in 6 years to be entered in the Preakness. She also finished second to ART COLLECTOR in the Blue Grass, so she can clearly keep up with the boys.

VALUE PLAYS: The top 3 contenders all exhibit early speed, and on the surface it would appear THOUSAND WORDS does, too. But his August victory at Del Mar with a 104 Beyer was against only 3 other horses. Against bigger fields he has stalked the pace, and there is every reason to think he will do it again at Pimlico. Deep closers MR. BIG NEWS and MAX PLAYER finished third and fifth, respectively, in the Derby, and they will be relying on the early speed to come back to them late in the race. NY TRAFFIC tried to keep up with AUTHENTIC at Churchill Downs before he withered to an eighth-place finish. PNEUMATIC may stalk the pace as he did winning the Pegasus at Monmouth Park. He and MAX PLAYER are trained by Steve Asmussen, as is EXCESSION, a colt coming off a 6-month break after finishing a close second in the .

$100 WAGERING STRATEGY: • $50 Win-Place: AUTHENTIC ($100)

TOP 4 PICKS

1. AUTHENTIC 3. SWISS SKYDIVER 2. ART COLLECTOR 4. THOUSAND WORDS

1ST.COM/BET 15 PREAKNESS STAKES GRADE 1 - $1,000,000 3YO – 1 3/16 MILES (DIRT)

FAITH REMAINS IN ART COLLECTOR EDZO’S PREAKNESS DAY SPOT PLAYS By Eddie Olcyzk @1stbet RACE 4 // HILLTOP STAKES ANALYSIS: Watching these 3-year-olds prep all season toward the delayed Triple #4 American Giant (6-1 ML) Crown, the horse I really wanted to bet finally will get his chance to run in Saturday’s In a race with a very hot pace, his only chance Preakness. ART COLLECTOR has had my attention for months, and he’ll have the is to rate and finish up strong. He seems to be attention of the Kentucky Derby winner AUTHENTIC when those two lock up at Pimlico. a better horse his last 2 races since the layoff The two favorites appear trustworthy in the series finale, but horseplayers looking for from January to July. Win bet. Daily Double value will be digging for a longshot to include in the exotics. 4-4 and Pick Three 4-4-3 to Sound Machine and Hembree in the next pair of races. MAIN CONTENDERS: AUTHENTIC is the favorite and Bob Baffert merits respect in the Preakness. But Baffert’s past success (a record 7 wins in this race) only should help the price on ART COLLECTOR, who is a fair 5-2 in the morning line. ART COLLECTOR RACE 5 // G3 should get a great trip. He’s tactical; if it goes really quick, he can sit. If for some reason #4 Sound Machine (4-1 ML) AUTHENTIC doesn’t show his customary speed, he can be right there from the break. Favorite Mundaye Call is very fast early and Expect ART COLLECTOR to be sitting just behind AUTHENTIC, and perhaps NY could have company with Ain’t No Elmers TRAFFIC and SWISS SKYDIVER, with a chance to pounce. ART COLLECTOR has been and Fly On Angel. Sound Machine has the lights out since going around 2 turns and really has found his stride. I’m not worried ability to rate and that will be key. The second about his minor foot issue that kept him out of the Kentucky Derby. race off a layoff could move her forward after hinting at much promise this winter VALUE PLAYS: LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE will be my price player. The runner-up in the Jim at Gulfstream. Win bet. Daily Double 4-3 to Dandy should get the distance and won’t have to close from out of the clouds like some Hembree in the next race. of the other longshot considerations. You can catch my last-minute analysis on the NBC telecast (4:30-6 pm ET), but honestly, I don’t really like anyone else in the race. It’s these RACE 6 // G2 DINNER PARTY STAKES 3 for me. MAX PLAYER could clunk up for the bottom of the superfecta. #3 Hembree (9-2 ML) Late runner gets a lot of speed to run at in $100 WAGERING STRATEGY: this one. I’m concerned that he’s won just • $40 Win: ART COLLECTOR ($40) 6 times from 37 starts (17 times second • $16 Exacta: ART COLLECTOR with AUTHENTIC ($16) or third), but this matchup suits his style. • $8 Exacta: ART COLLECTOR with LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE ($8) Expect even-money favorite Factor This and • $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: ART COLLECTOR with AUTHENTIC, Somelikeithotbrown to provide a legitimate LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE with ALL ($18) pace. Win bet. • $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: ART COLLECTOR with ALL with AUTHENTIC, LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE ($18)

TOP 4 PICKS

1. ART COLLECTOR 3. LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE 2. AUTHENTIC 4. MAX PLAYER

1ST.COM/BET 16 PREAKNESS STAKES WORKOUT ANALYSIS By Milie Ball (@camillayakteen)

XBTV, part of the 1/ST family, is your home for the best workout video, analysis and information. Workout analyst Millie Ball has kept an eye on the top Preakness contenders in the morning and provides her video study.

Click the horse’s name to view the videos, courtesy Churchill Downs.

HORSE DATE TRACK DISTANCE CONDITION TIME Authentic 9/19 Churchill 5 furlongs fast :59.20

I was glad to see a very typical work from Authentic 14 days after his mile and one-quarter victory in the Kentucky Derby. He was alert, moving his ears to and fro, for the duration of the work and demonstrated good energy when asked to work on out seven-eighths of a mile. He was given an official 5F clocking of :59.20. His trainer Bob Baffert followed him out 6 furlongs in 1:12 on his watch and 7 furlongs in 1:25.80, commenting that he was “cruising, like a Derby winner!” (Baffert’s full reaction, courtesy of the Kentucky HBPA, here. ) Authentic remained at Churchill Downs after the Derby and did not return to Santa Anita, a move typical of Baffert’s past Derby-Preakness contenders.

Art Collector 9/19 Churchill 5 furlongs fast :59.40

Art Collector’s 5-furlong time was only 1/5 of a second slower than Authentic’s that same morning of Sept. 19 at Churchill Downs. I couldn’t fault the Blue Grass winner’s work either. He found his rhythm quickly and worked an enthusiastic five-eighths, showing zeal on the long gallop-out. His untimely foot issue, grabbing himself while training for the Kentucky Derby, appears to be well and truly behind him.

Thousand Words 9/19 Churchill 5 furlongs fast 1:02.40

Thousand Words has proven to be a tough customer. When put with company in his last two works at Del Mar, he was too keen. Then on Sept. 19 at Churchill when working alone, he was lazy, completing his 5-furlong drill in a half-hearted 1:02.40 with jockey Florent Geroux persuading him. Regardless of that, he does have a long, fluid stride and looks healthy after his Derby paddock mishap.

Mr. Big News 9/18 Churchill 4 furlongs fast :48.40

Notebook: Mr. Big News returned to the workout tab under the lights the morning of Sept. 18, and Jennie Rees of the Kentucky HBPA’s publicity staff discussed the colt’s Preakness outlook with owner Chester Thomas.

Art Collector

1ST.COM/BET 17 HOW MUCH DOES THAT BET COST?

Preakness exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs. Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to help plan your attack.

Exacta Box: ($1 Wager) Trifecta Key: ($.50 Wager) 2 horse box ...... $2 1 Horse with 3 others ...... $3 3 horse box ...... $6 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 4 horse box ...... $12 1 Horse with 4 others ...... $6 5 horse box ...... $20 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 6 horse box ...... $30 1 Horse with 5 others ...... $10 7 horse box ...... $42 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 8 horse box ...... $56 1 Horse with 6 others ...... $15 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) Exacta Wheel: ($1 Wager) 1 Horse with 7 others ...... $21 One Horse with All (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) 6 horse field ...... $5 7 horse field ...... $6 Superfecta Box: ($.10 Wager) 8 horse field ...... $7 4 Horse Box ...... $2.40 9 horse field ...... $8 5 Horse Box ...... $12 10 horse field ...... $9 6 Horse Box ...... $36

Trifecta Box: ($.50 Wager) Superfecta Wheel: ($.10 Wager) 3 Horse Box ...... $3 One Horse with All with All with All 4 Horse Box ...... $12 (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1) 5 Horse Box ...... $30 7 Horse Field ...... $12 6 Horse Box ...... $60 8 Horse Field ...... $21 7 Horse Box ...... $105 9 Horse Field ...... $33.60 8 Horse Box ...... $168 10 Horse Field ...... $50.40

Trifecta Wheel: ($.50 Wager) One Horse with Two Horses with All with All One Horse with All with All (Example: 1/2,3/All/All or 2,3/1/All/All or 1/All/All/ 2,3 or (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 2,3/All/All/1 or All/All/1/ 2,3 or All/All/2,3/ 1) 7 Horse Field ...... $15 7 Horse Field ...... $4 8 Horse Field ...... $21 8 Horse Field ...... $6 9 Horse Field ...... $28 9 Horse Field ...... $8.40 10 Horse Field ...... $36 10 Horse Field ...... $11.20

One Horse with Two Horses with All Superfecta Key: ($.10 Wager)  (Example: 1/2,3/All or 2,3/1/All or 1/All/2,3 1 Horse with 3 others ...... $.60 or 2,3/All/1 or All/1/2,3 or All/2,3/1) (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) 7 Horse Field ...... $5 1 Horse with 4 others ...... $2.40 8 Horse Field ...... $6 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 9 Horse Field ...... $7 1 Horse with 5 others ...... $6 10 Horse Field ...... $8 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others ...... $12 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others ...... $21 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)

1ST.COM/BET 18 PREAKNESS STAKES NEED-TO-KNOW

RACE DATE: SATURDAY, OCT. 3 FIRST RACE POST TIME: 11 A.M. ET PREAKNESS STAKES POST TIME: 5:36 PM ET WATCH FREE AND WAGER: ALL RACES ON 1/ST BET APP; XPRESSBET.COM TELEVISION: NBC, 4:30-6 PM ET WAGERING NOTES: FRI-SAT /PREAKNESS DAILY DOUBLE

STAKES LINEUP Grade 1 Preakness $1,000,000 3YO 1-3/16 miles Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan $250,000 3YO F 1-1/8 miles Grade 2 Dinner Party $250,000 3&UP 1-1/16 miles (turf) Grade 3 DeFrancis Dash $250,000 3&UP 6 furlongs Grade 3 Gallorette $150,000 3&UP FM 1-1/16 miles (turf) Grade 3 Miss Preakness $150,000 3YO F 6 furlongs Selima $150,000 2YO F 1-1/16 miles (turf) Laurel Futurity $150,000 2YO 1-1/16 miles (turf) Hilltop $100,000 3YO F 1 mile (turf) James W. Murphy $100,000 3YO 1 mile (turf) Skipat $100,000 3&UP FM 6 furlongs Grade 1 UAE President’s Cup $100,000 4&UP (A) 1-1/16 miles

1/ST INSIDE PREAKNESS 145

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