Funded by

A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight

Adanna Shallowe, Aleksandra Szymczyk, Ella Firebrace, Ian Burbidge and James Morrison A stitch in time Realising the value of futures and foresight Adanna Shallowe Aleksandra Szymczyk Ella Firebrace Ian Burbidge James Morrison October 2020

OCTOBER 2020 Contents

Acknowledgments Contents

Page no. We thank our interviewees, listed in About the authors Appendix B, who unfailingly gave up i. About us 2 their time and energy to answer our We all have an interest in foresight often naive questions around the topic and futures and how change happens. and openly shared with us the benefit of Adanna Shallowe has a background in ii. Foreword by Prof Chris Fox 4 their expertise, insights and hindsights, international relations and development often introducing us to others who and is responsible for harnessing iii. Notes on reading this report 6 offered expertise in different aspects global insights in the RSA’s research. of the field. We appreciate you all for Aleksandra Szymczyk is a research iv. Foreword by Matthew Taylor 7 engaging so openly with us. Many of our associate at Manchester Metropolitan interviewees were also RSA Fellows, University’s Policy Evaluation and 1. Introduction 8 confirming to us what a rich body of Research Unit with a background in thought and experience there is in the social anthropology. Ella Firebrace 2. Executive summary 11 Fellowship. In the interests of reciprocity has a background in international we will endeavour to support this group migration and works across a range to connect and convene as appropriate, of RSA programmes including Cities 3. Hindsight: we have always thought about the future 18 and make such a commitment in the of Learning. Ian Burbidge has a recommendations at the end of the report. background in local public service 4. For organisations: develop futures competencies 30 and behavioural science and leads We further thank those who read early the development of the RSA’s Living 5. For policymakers: develop a futures mindset 45 copies of the draft, including Jeanette Change approach. James Morrison Kwek Kwamou Eva Feukeu, Dr Wendy has a background in social and cultural 6. For society: develop a futures culture 57 Schultz, Mikko Dufva, Billie Carn, and our anthropology and works across a range colleagues Professor Chris Fox, Dr Joanna of projects at the RSA. Choukeir, Anthony Painter and Matthew 7. Foresight: we need to think longer-term 71 Taylor. We also thank our colleagues Amanda Ibbett and Benny Souto for their 8. Appendices 74 assistance in producing this report. A. Scope of research 74

B. Method and interviewees 75

C. How the RSA has found value in foresight 76

D. Glossary of terms 76

E. Toolkits and guides 77

F. International foresight institutions 78

G. Why we need to value the long-term 78

A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 1 About us (fixed spread) i About us

e are the RSA. The We define our ambitions as: royal society for arts, REALISING manufactures and commerce. We’re Our vision committedW to a future that works for everyone. A future where we can all A world where everyone participate in its creation. is able to participate in The RSA has been at the forefront of creating a better future. significant social impact for over 250 years. Our proven change process, rigorous research, innovative ideas Our purpose platforms and diverse global community of over 30,000 problem solvers, deliver Uniting people and ideas solutions for lasting change. to resolve the challenges We invite you to be part of this change. Join our community. Together, we’ll of our time. unite people and ideas to resolve the challenges of our time. Find out more at thersa.org We are A global community of CHANGE proactive problem solvers.

About the Policy About MetroPolis

Evaluation Research etroPolis is a thinktank to develop effective public Unit (PERU) services, cities and a caring society. Based at Manchester MMetropolitan University it is a unique stablished in 2007, the Policy We are the RSA. The royal society Evaluation and Research Unit partnership of researchers, policymakers at Manchester Metropolitan and practitioners who share thinking to for arts, manufactures and commerce. University is a multi-disciplinary tackle key challenges. Eteam of evaluators, economists, We unite people and ideas to resolve sociologists and criminologists. We specialise in evaluating policies, the challenges of our time. programmes and projects and advising national and local policymakers on the development of evidence-informed policy. We work in the UK and Europe across sectors that include criminal justice, education, social innovation and incomes, work and poverty.

2 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 3 ii Foreword

f the events of 2020 have proved create innovative solutions to meet their The events of 2020 have demonstrated the value of anything it’s surely how valuable needs be they better financial services or foresight is when making policy, but more effective health services. foresight in policy. But also how hard it is to predict also how hard it is to predict the This report describes futures thinking Ifuture. We have known for a while that, as a people-driven, multi-disciplinary the future. Above all, it shown us how complex and as a society we face some big challenges: project. Technology has a role to play, take your pick from a list that includes but so do the arts and humanities. It fast-moving our world is. If ever there was a need for climate change, the Fourth Industrial recognises that futures thinking is an Revolution, an ageing population, inherently creative discipline which asks innovation in policymaking it is now. urbanisation, loneliness and the rise of fundamental questions about what it is populism. The Covid-19 pandemic has to be human and is necessarily values- Professor Chris Fox, Director of PERU and co- brought these into stark relief, while also driven. Taking this perspective leads presenting us with new ones. Above all the authors of this report to argue for though it has shown us how complex and lead of MetroPolis at Manchester Metropolitan the importance of encouraging all of us fast-moving our world is. If ever there to make the future a greater priority was a need for innovation in policymaking University and embed long-term thinking into our it is now. everyday lives. They make far-reaching A combination of big policy challenge and and radical recommendations for policy- ever-increasing complexity is one of the and decision-makers and organisations factors that makes greater investment in across society. We at Manchester futures thinking an attractive idea. One Metropolitan University are looking strand of thinking on better policymaking forward to continuing to work with the has turned to technologies such as RSA on bringing them to fruition. machine learning, AI and the potential Professor Chris Fox of big data. Will these technologies help policymakers understand complex Director of the Policy Evaluation systems and model potential future Research Unit and co-lead scenarios, in which policy options can be of MetroPolis at Manchester tested? They certainly have much to offer, Metropolitan University but when we proposed this project to the RSA our hunch was that technology was not the whole story. We know from our wider work on innovation in policymaking that new models of innovation have started to break down the distinction between technologically-driven and people-driven innovation. Models of ‘open innovation’ and ‘social innovation’ for example, invert traditional models of technologically-led innovation and suggest that innovation is driven by the creation of ‘ecosystems’ made up of diverse actors who align their goals and collaborate to co-create ‘shared value’. Instead of the citizen being seen as a recipient of innovation, in these models citizens and in particular, the people who use services, are the drivers of innovation and work with government and services to co-

4 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 5 Limitations The point here is not simply that thinking Notes on reading Foreword by about the future is more important for We are aware that we are writing some decisions than others, but that the this report from the perspective of a Western, Matthew Taylor relationship between short term and industrialised, educated, rich and long goals differs. In some cases, they utures studies is an academic democratic society, and therefore we stitch in time is an expansive, point in the same direction (so futures field and discipline with graduate have cultural blind spots to some of timely and practical report. thinking doesn’t add anything practical degree programs, peer- the concepts and ideas we explore in The team at RSA and MMU to our insights) in some cases they may reviewed journals, international this research. We recognise that whilst have mapped out important conflict, while in others the question of Facademic and professional membership debatesA and made thoughtful proposals. the society in which we live has largely whether or not they align is debatable or organisations and a rich body of lost touch with generational wisdom The report includes a helpful executive inherently uncertain. literature. Where we have directly drawn and insight, this is not the case for summary and an introduction from from such resources, we reference them a vast number of other cultures for Professor Chris Fox, which speaks to Given human cognitive frailties and in the footnotes. whom notions of the long term and the core thesis. Rather than repeating or the many short-term pressures in a rehearsing the argument, I want to use society like ours, futures and foresight We use the term ‘futures’ as relating our symbiotic relationship with the my brief preface to offer one among many methodologies are a vital tool in the to the subject matter and ‘foresight’ to earth are so central as to not require thoughts which has occurred to me after development of change strategies. But, the competency and practice. We are elaboration. From this perspective, our call for longer-term thinking and practice reading the report. for me, the lesson of this report is not not talking about futurism or prediction. only that we should seek to think more Strategic foresight, in turn, might be across society must appear mystifying. A Towards the end, the authors refer to significant number of our interviewees deeply about the long term future, but described as an organised and systematic the RSA’s established approach to change, also that understanding and questioning process through which to engage with acknowledged this. We value and summed up in the phrase ‘think like recognise this perspective. It remains an the relationship between short, medium uncertainty regarding the future. We a system, act like an entrepreneur’. A and long term action should be an unpack this definition a little further in area we would like to explore further and stitch in time encourages to think of the understand better in subsequent work, integral part of system analysis and the the opening chapter and in the Glossary. temporal qualities of systems and in doing development of strategies for change. and we make this commitment in the to give more weight to the long term and In addition, there are a range of guides recommendations. the possibilities for change which can be Matthew Taylor and manuals on how to apply foresight illuminated by futures thinking. methodologies in practice. We do not CEO, The RSA seek to replicate these; such detail is An interesting characteristic of systems is beyond the scope of this report. We have that the relationship between the short listed many of them in Appendix E for and long term varies within them. As a further reference. football fan, I can suggest an illustration. When it comes to the short-term We have also adopted the practice of the objective of winning the next game there Long Now Foundation in expressing the is little or no trade-off between this and year with an additional ‘0’ to give a better the long-term aim of a successful and indication of the long arc of time; thus, we financially sustainable football club. All are publishing this report in 02020. other things being equal, the more wins We draw insights from global practice this season, the better the medium to and knowledge. Although our long term prospects for the club. recommendations can be considered In contrast, the decision to splash out in more widely, they tend to a UK focus. the transfer market on an expensive high salary player may be justifiable in relation to short term victories while also risking medium term finances and long-term viability.

6 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 7 entrepreneurs: those who recognise Introduction the need to facilitate change whilst at the same time trying to preserve some stability; those who recognise that no single field has the answer, for there is no e set out on this research single right answer to be found.3 journey to write a provocation around Changemakers face a number of the value, practice and challenges in realising the benefits of opportunityW of futures and foresight futures and foresight. On the one hand, methodologies in different contexts, with such approaches can help us understand a focus on their potential for improving what the future might look like so that public policy and discourse.1 we might better organise ourselves for that speculative future. On the other We enter this space not as futures and hand, it can help us to disrupt and change foresight experts, nor are we specifically future scenarios because we believe in writing for that audience. We spoke to better. It is critical that through futures INTRODUCTION experts across the field who offered and foresight we can imagine this better unparalleled depth of knowledge, future whilst understanding our present, insight and expertise.2 As authors we and take tentative steps forward. Of fall into that growing category we might course, we know the map isn’t yet describe as ‘curious generalists’. Since drawn – and nor can it be, for reasons the scientific revolution, the world has of complexity in navigating an evolving seemingly favoured deepened knowledge landscape. in what appears to be an infinite number of fields. We are not in this camp. We In the opening chapter, Hindsight, we want to know enough about a range of explore the extent to which concepts disciplines, to see how bringing diverse of time and the future are at the heart insights together can offer new ways of of what it is to be human. We then dig thinking about and addressing some of deep into the use of futures and foresight the more intractable challenges we face approaches across three core contexts: as a society. Indeed, many of those we that of the organisation, the individual spoke to through this research would not policymaker and society as a whole. We identify as futurists or see themselves frame the report around this structure, as only practicing within this field, and with each context forming a core chapter. instead offer a breadth of knowledge and In each, we identify and explore five ways “An answer is always the part of the road that experience. in which we might realise the value of long-term thinking in a short-term world. This is the spirit in which this report is is behind you. Only questions point to the We conclude each chapter with a set of offered. insights and recommendations that we future.” It is aimed for the creative problem have drawn from our research. We offer solver, the adaptive generalist, the them with humility and the hope that Jostein Gaarder intellectually curious, the changemaker. other interested travellers find these For those who utilise a range of mental ideas and provocations of interest. If we models and frameworks from across have sparked new thoughts, ideas or disciplines to help make sense of the reflections in some of our readers we will

world and act within it. We see value in 1 See Appendix A. exploring what a field such as futures and 2 See Appendix B. foresight has to offer in complement to 3 Hallgarten, J., Hannon, V. and Beresford, T. (2016) Creative Public their existing skillset. We have previously Leadership: How School System Leaders Can Create the Conditions referred to such people as systems- for System-wide Innovation. [pdf] London: RSA and Innovation Unit Available at: www.thersa.org/globalassets/pdfs/reports/creative-public- leadership.pdf [Accessed 14 October 2020].

8 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 9 

have succeeded, for we might never know what they may lead to in the future. The urgency for this research has been accelerated by the shadow cast by the global pandemic of Covid-19. In many ways, the pandemic is amplifying both the shortcomings of society’s current modus operandi to respond to something as complex and emergent as a pandemic SUMMARY and the need for longer-term thinking in terms of the kind of society that might emerge from its wreckage. For there remain long-term challenges to address, captured in the Sustainable Development Goals and including the climate crisis, racial justice and wealth inequality. These, and challenges like them, will require long-term thinking that frames short-term actions. We realised through our research that there is a growing movement to re-prioritise the future and long- term thinking in our everyday lives, communities, organisations and systems. Activists and citizens are taking actions and provoking thinking across the broadest range of disciplines and communities, from the Long Now Foundation to a petition to the UK parliament to establish a citizens’ EXECUTIVE assembly for the future, from Longplayer in London’s Trinity Buoy Wharf playing music for a thousand years to the Long- Term Stock Exchange.4 Popular books include Farsighted, The Good Ancestor, On the Future and The Clock of the Long Goal: Now. We have tapped into this work primarily because we were directed by One of the primary reasons we need to think our interviewees where to look, not necessarily because we had previously about futures and foresight is to help us change come across it. course toward different outcomes, embedded Our hope is that in some small way this report helps amplify such work and in shared ethics. Here we offer a series of invites others on a path of discovery. In that spirit we offer, as recommendations, recommendations to put this into practice. a set of ideas we feel are worth exploring in more detail in order to take this work forward into a tangible phase of discovery and design. 4 Long Term Stock Exchange (2020) Home | LTSE. [online] Available at: www.ltse.com [Accessed 14 October 2020].

10 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 11 Executive For organisations For policymakers For society 1 Practice. To account for the future 1 Paradoxes. Policymakers, in all 1 Incentives. If we are not acting in summary organisations we have to consider contexts, have a number of paradoxes ways that enable our descendants to the long-term impact of short-term to navigate in order to bring value thrive on the planet, we are colonising actions, yet this is not standard from futures and foresight approaches, their future. Yet it is impossible practice across many cultures, including the short-termism of the to underestimate the impact that Core take-aways industries and sectors, fuelled in part political or product life cycles and the incentives have in driving short- by our capitalist economic incentive potential long-term implications of termism. We need to find ways to ur research has highlighted a structures. their decisions. A short-term mindset value the long run. number of insights and ideas 2 Process. Foresight shouldn’t be can also convert or over-ride long- 2 Perspectives. Because the way we about futures and foresight seen as a stand-alone set of activities term thinking even around obviously think about the future is a product which we have consolidated but should be integrated into the long-term products or initiatives, of our values and belief systems, O culture. It needs to run through the such as built environment projects not everyone will view the future in into twelve core take-aways. organisation’s cultural structures and that have lifespans of decades and the same way nor give it the same assumptions in order to overcome therefore impacts and implications for importance. In thinking about the Hindsight resistance and add maximum value to decades. future, we are really challenging 1 Humanity. To think about the future the organisation. The more foresight 2 Competencies. Futures as the stories we’ve been told about and to plan ahead is to be human; tools and methodologies are part a discipline and foresight as a ourselves, our society and our place our evolution depended on it. Homo of the strategic life-cycle the more competency are inherently multi- in the world. prospectus has always had a futures robust the policy- and decision- disciplinary and support longer- 3 Movements. There are organisations and foresight mindset. How we think making process. term, holistic, and systemic thinking. and people who are at the leading about and view the future is vitally 3 Resilience. Evaluation of foresight Systems thinking is the backbone of edge of a growing movement to important to how we think about methods is not an exact science, given futures thinking - it is why futures embed long-term thinking across and act in the present. In turn, our there is no counterfactual, rendering thinking must be multidisciplinary. The all aspects of society, drawing upon present context is vitally important to the benefits often intangible. This fields of systems science and futures academia, the arts, business, music how we think about the future. should not dissuade executives from studies emerged side by side in the and literature. Aligning foresight early to mid-20th century and, indeed, 2 Uncertainty. Futures and foresight seeing foresight as a complement practice with wider mechanisms to strategy and decision-making had some of the same founding of deliberative democracy and offers a way to think about and 5 approach some of our most processes. Indeed, the resilience thinkers. engagement is an important intractable, complex social challenges, that can result from future-proofing It is complementary to, and a opportunity for the use of foresight. and therefore provides additional is where much of the value can be core skillset of, many people who mechanisms to help navigate the found. Organisations that question the are seeking change, whether as uncertainty inherent in life in general long term role they play in a system policymakers, decision-makers, and social change in particular. and that continue to change to be activists, advisors and/or consultants. relevant and supportive of that future Many generalists or polymaths count 3 Change. Tools and methods in these methods in their repertoire. change practices tend to focus more are more adaptive and resilient as a 3 on understanding what has happened result. Legitimacy. A crucial challenge in the past (hindsight) as opposed relates to the idea of legitimate to what is about to happen or what futures which asks the questions we want to see happen in the future ‘whose future is it?’ and ‘who has (foresight). Futures and foresight the power to decide about that therefore offers benefits for those future?’ Is it policymakers alone? seeking change, particularly as we Without transparency of process, it need to work with a deeper and more can be difficult to counter charges of nuanced understanding of the hidden paternalism or the ‘colonisation of our social and cultural determinants of imaginations’. our futures.

5 See for example the work of Kenneth Boulding.

12 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 13 Executive summary

Stitches in time? 4 Challenge short-term incentives For organisations Generations Impact Assessment 5 Think like a system, act like an alongside any significant policy One of the primary reasons we need to entrepreneur • Establish the chief foresight officer or funding change. Continue to think about futures and foresight is to (or equivalent) as a core C-suite role, develop futures and foresight as core help us change course toward different charged with responsibility for the competency for public policymakers. outcomes, embedded in shared ethics. Recommendations long-term impact of the organisation. • Design and test a new Futures Citizen We need to consider possible futures We have identified a number of relevant Establish equivalents in public, social, module, ultimately to form a new so we – and our descendants - are not areas of inquiry outside the scope of and charity sectors together with further-education qualification, as well captured by them. This level of flexibility this initial research piece that warrant mechanisms to share success. be a foundation part of every degree is a necessary response to the complexity further exploration, particularly around • Develop an incentives and reporting course. It could cover the basics of of the world and its challenges. We can’t the cultural dimensions and indigenous structure and a code of ethics for all foresight alongside insights from a assume to stay on a fixed course or we wisdom of futures thinking, the role of businesses that shifts the balance away range of multi-disciplinary subjects will find ourselves lost and obsolete. the generalist and business maverick, and from short-term, often unsustainable such as systems thinking, complexity, What actions could organisations, the potential alignment with participatory actions whose sole aim is to maximise design and innovation, strategy, policymakers and society take to avoid democracy practices. shareholder value, and prioritise decision-making, economics, choice this? We think there are five core asks instead longer-term, sustainable and bias, and so on. Make available as We believe the RSA is a natural home of each that collectively form a set of practice and value generation for a MOOC once developed and tested. for those interested in the art of ‘stitches in time’. Together they might shareholders and for wider society. This will start to seed and mainstream change. Inherent in change are notions help facilitate and accelerate a transition efforts at making foresight more of the future and how that impacts us • Identify and connect towards a longer-term perspective. accessible and culturally acceptable. today, especially as uncertainty and those organisations actively working disruption characterise our futures going to embed long-term perspectives For organisations forward. With the emergence of a new into their work. Seek opportunities For society RSA programme around the idea of to align, test and amplify their work To develop futures competencies: • Design and run a citizens’ jury on the regenerative futures,6 with a vision for so that longer-term time horizons idea of establishing a third chamber 1 Broaden time horizons humans to thrive as part of the earth’s become more of an institutional alongside the House of Commons and 2 Develop capabilities ecosystems in perpetuity, we are keen to norm. the House of Lords, mandated with co-create an open knowledge network 3 Integrate with existing processes the primary function of representing in this space. Our recommendations 4 Overcome resistance For policymakers the interests of future generations. below form a starting point for these Equip this chamber with the powers 5 Evaluate and learn conversations. • Look at issues of legitimacy in more detail, including the relationship of to fulfil their functions. Support this In particular, we would like to offer an futures and foresight with other by reducing the voting age to 16, For policymakers open invitation to work with us. We forms of public engagement and recognising that young people have To develop a futures mindset: are keen to develop a wide community deliberation. Examine, in particular, longer remaining on the planet than of practice/knowledge network of their grandparents’ generation, and 1 Work across disciplines the differences in how societies foresight practitioners and futurists with and cultures think about time and that they are old enough to have a say 2 Draw on a range of methods RSA Fellows at its heart. We want to the long-term, what lessons can be at the ballot-box. 3 Develop a futures literacy and fluency discuss the idea of futurists and foresight shared, and how this can support • Establish diverse and inclusive national 4 Identify power dynamics practitioners in residence, experts that the long-term response to the short- and regional citizens’ assemblies on are hosted by the RSA working on a core 5 Surface signals of systems change term pressures of responding future generations to inform this issue, brief or programme. to Covid-19. work, supported by RSA Fellows with 7 • Require every government foresight expertise. For society department, public • Design some practical micro- To develop a futures culture: sector organisation, and those experiments that help cement longer- organisations delivering services with term thinking in people’s everyday 1 Make future challenges salient public funding, to embed foresight lives and social contexts. For example, 2 Recognise different perspectives thinking into its work, including what would it take to enable everyone 3 Engage citizens in participatory through the publication of a Future to have the option of taking mini- practice 7 There is an extant call for a National Citizens’ Assembly of the Future 6 For more information, see www.thersa.org/regenerative-futures. (see: www.petition.parliament.uk/petitions/321196) with more details at www.theunfinishedrevolution.net.

14 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 15 Executive summary

Figure 1: Overview of how we can reoient our society to think about the long term

retirements for every decade of work? New mechanisms are needed that enable future generations to live a good life in a context significantly different to that enjoyed by previous generations.

Note: these three recommendations relate specifically to the UK context with which we are most familiar. We invite readers to imagine recommendations appropriate for their own society and culture.

To summarise, these recommendations are mutually reinforcing, as illustrated below.

Align with methods of deliberative democracy

Establish a foresight culture and practice

Use inclusive, Develop a Future transparent Citizens learning methods module

16 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 17 Hindsight 

“the entire pageant of human history, Hindsight: we starting 100,000 years ago, can be seen as evolution at high speed, made possible have always by the transmission of learned knowledge HINDSIGHT 12 thought about the across generations”. Far from being a more primitive forbearer future of modern society, hunter-gatherer societies lived sustainably in tune with the n this chapter we explore how planet. Their very survival was dependant WE HAVE thinking about the future has always on storing and passing down collective been a core part of the human knowledge about the environment condition and how this has evolved in which they lived. The agricultural Iover time, before unpacking futures revolution arguably precipitated a shift and foresight and its role in helping us towards increasing specialisation and ALWAYS navigate those areas of life and society costs of failure. Suddenly the costs of an that are characterised by complexity and inability to plan ahead for a time when uncertainty. food wasn’t plentiful, when specific crops or food sources failed, or stores of food were raided or soiled were paid in lives Homo prospectus lost: THOUGHT The human brain has equipped us “While agricultural space shrank, with the ability to think, plan ahead, agricultural time expanded… The communicate, form larger social groups Agricultural Revolution made the future and cooperate amongst them. Indeed, far more important than it had ever our ability to project ourselves into other been before… Concern about the times and situations “could have held an future was rooted not only in seasonal ABOUT THE evolutionary advantage strong enough cycles of production but also in the 9 to shape neural architecture itself”. fundamental uncertainty of agriculture… This was essential for the retention Consequently, from the very advent of of information in a time when those agriculture, worries about the future communities that thrived did so “not became major players in the theatre of FUTURE due to their individual intelligences, but the human mind”.13 to a vast storehouse of information that had been learned by their ancestors and If we accept this notion that the “We can’t help but live in three time zones transmitted to the present generation agricultural revolution changed our without the help of a written language”.10 relationship with both space and time, simultaneously, remembering and reliving the past, the it follows that similar transformations in The example of an Inuit tribe in north- how we conceive them have occurred roots of who we are now, and planning and worrying about western Greenland, hit by an epidemic in similarly transformative moments. that killed many of the group’s elders, what we have to get done for tomorrow and next week, illustrates the need for a critical mass of human brains in which to store critical 8 Bargh, J. (2017) Before You Know It: The Unconscious Reasons We Do information pertinent to survival.11 What We Do. London: Penguin. p. 288. what we hope to get done this year, and why we want our 9 Seligman M.E.P., Railton P., Baumeister R.F. and Sripada C. (2013) The tribe rapidly declined because Navigating Into the Future or Driven by the Past. Perspectives on life to be like five years from now. The past and the future the information the elders held in Psychological Science. 2013;8(2):119-141. doi:10.1177/1745691612474317. their memories was lost. Without an 10 Wilson, D.S. (2019). This View of Life: Completing the Darwinian 8 alternative means of information storage, Revolution. London: Vintage. continuously shape our present.” such as writing, the loss of collective 11 Henrich, J. (2015) The Secret of Our Success: How Culture Is Driving knowledge was a very real life- and Human Evolution, Domesticating Our Species, and Making Us Smarter. Princeton: Princeton University Press. culture-threatening hazard. David John Bargh 12 Wilson, D.S. (2019) Op cit. p. 105. Sloan Wilson posits that, ultimately 13 Harari, Y.N. (2011) Sapiens: A Brief History of Mankind. London: Vintage. p. 102.

18 AA stitch stitch in in time? time? Realising Realising the the value value of of futures futures and and foresight foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 19 Hindsight 

Reinhart Koselleck argues that modernity (see Figure 2).17 The notion that to think Decision-making in under conditions of risk or uncertainty. transformed all domains of European life, of the future is an almost uniquely human The former are situations when the including our experience of time. He sees characteristic, but one that brings with complexity potential impacts of the decision are modernity as producing an ever-increasing it added layers of responsibility and known, corresponding to the idea of Not only is Covid-19 impacting across acceleration of new experiences that challenge, yet which is constrained by direct causation. Events can be largely social, economic, environmental and we have less and less time to assimilate. incentives, is the core theme that weaves identified and mitigated against through technological domains, but one of the Koselleck argues that modernity changed through this report. risk assessments, emergency planning fundamental lessons from the global the way that past, present and future and other such contingencies. The latter pandemic to date is the intensification of related to each other, and that this Box 1: Homo prospectus are trickier circumstances of uncertainty, what it is to live and work in uncertainty. opened the new temporality of history as where causation is systemic, and the “What best distinguishes our species is Yet our thinking, our actions, our a way to assimilate these experiences.14 impacts cannot be fully known, appraised an ability that scientists are just beginning institutions, our structures, our lives all and addressed. Therefore, concludes Seligman, to appreciate: we contemplate the future. remain largely constructed around the our species is better named homo Our singular foresight created civilisation false premise of certainty. We see this The challenge of decision-making is prospectus, as “humans are extraordinary and sustains society. It usually lifts our promise in the ideas of scientific reality, compounded when we try to consider the among animals in their capacity for spirits, but it’s also the source of most universal laws and direct causation, long-term implications of those decisions. the prospection necessary for long- depression and anxiety, whether we’re the belief that if C happens we can be Johnson summarises eight primary factors term, shared, stable enterprises such as evaluating our own lives or worrying confident it will be followed by D. This that contribute to the challenge of government, law, schools, commerce, about the nation. Other animals have reductive, linear thinking shapes the way farsighted decision-making, they: collective bargaining, and retirement springtime rituals for educating the we tend to organise our institutions, planning. Commitments, relationships, young, but only we subject them to manage our staff, commission services or • Involve multiple variables values, and convictions, even ‘the self’ as a ‘commencement’ speeches grandly develop policy. It imbues us with a false • Require full-spectrum analysis persisting entity, are a matter not just of informing them that today is the first sense of security that if anything major • Force us to predict the future day of the rest of their lives. A more happens, we just need to understand it how one has acted or is acting but of how • Involve varied levels of uncertainty one thinks about the future and how one apt name for our species would be and make the right choices. will or would act in various futures”. 15 homo prospectus, because we thrive by • Often involve conflicting objectives George Lakoff shows that every language considering our prospects. The power • Harbour undiscovered options Whilst being fundamental to our in the world has in its grammar a way to of prospection is what makes us wise. • Are prone to what Kahneman calls evolution, there is a shadow side to our express this notion of direct causation, Looking into the future, consciously 21 but none has the grammar to express ‘System 1’ failings ability to project ahead. We often defer and unconsciously, is a central function thinking about the future; economists systemic causation.19 This is the idea that • Are vulnerable to failures of collective of our large brain, as psychologists and 22 an intervention or action in one part of intelligence. have long recognised that we discount neuroscientists have discovered — rather a complex system will have unknown - The ability to operate in uncertain future rewards for immediate gain. This belatedly, because for the past century unknowable - impacts across other parts circumstances and make sensible choices makes investing today for our future most researchers have assumed that of that system. Alicia Juarrero elaborates: in ambiguity with imperfect information financial or health benefit a hard sell. we’re prisoners of the past and the “even after the advent of the theories of requires a different mindset and a flexible Matters are compounded for those present.” 18 living under conditions of scarcity, evolution and thermodynamics, modern skillset. As Bill Sharpe puts it, “the whether in terms of income or savings, science continued to restrict itself to practice of future consciousness is also a mental bandwidth, social networks, etc. closed linear systems abstracted from skill, and the first step into working with A scarcity mindset compromises our their historical and spatial context. the patterns of transformative change is ability to make clear decisions about our Only with the recent development to learn to love uncertainty.”23 How can future.16 The future, for those living under of complexity theory have openness, our leaders - and all of us making choices the severest conditions and constraints, nonlinearity, time and context come to will be a much different proposition than 14 Koselleck, R (2004) Futures Past: On the Semantics of Historical Time. the forefront.” 20 Series: Studies in Contemporary German Social Thought. Translated and 19 Lakoff, G. (2014) The All New Don’t Think of an Elephant!: Know Your it is for the richest in society. Scarcity can, with an introduction by Keith Tribe. New York: Columbia University In other words, we need different Values and Frame the Debate. Hartford: Chelsea Green Publishing. indeed, change our perceptions of time. Press. approaches to making decisions and 20 Juarrero, A. (2002) Dynamics in Action: Intentional Behavior as a Complex 15 Seligman M.E.P., Railton P., Baumeister R.F. and Sripada C. (2013) Op cit. This plays out as an ongoing and dynamic acting that are appropriate to the System. Cambridge: MIT Press. 16 Mullainathan, S. and Shafir, E. (2014) Scarcity. London: Penguin. tension between the needs of the short- complexity of the environment. We make 21 A reference to Kahneman’s distinction of two systems of thinking: a fast, 17 Krznaric, R. (2020) The Good Ancestor: How to Think Long Term in a choices all the time, of course, whether more intuitive system 1, and a slow, more reflective system two. This is term and our responsibilities to the long- Short-Term World. London: WH Allen. from Kahneman, D. (2012) Thinking, Fast and Slow. London: Penguin. we run a government department, a term as summarised by Roman Krznaric 18 Seligman, M.E.P and Tierney, J. (2017) We Aren’t Built to Live in the 22 Johnson, S. (2018) Farsighted: How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Moment. The New York Times. May 19, 2017. Available at www.nytimes. social enterprise, a home or our own Most [Kindle Edition]. New York: Riverhead Books. loc. 368. com/2017/05/19/opinion/sunday/why-the-future-is-always-on-your-mind. lives. These decisions are either made 23 Sharpe, B (2013) Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope. Bridport: html [Accessed 14 October 2020]. Triarchy Press.

20 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 21 Hindsight 

Figure 2: The tug of war of time

The relationships we have with one Across time and space another that comprise the spaces in which “Time is...a socially mediated re- we live presents us with questions of our lation between humans and their collective futures, of how we want to live world.”25 on this planet together and our roles in Jonathan Martineau shaping this. His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama emphasises this point: “in today’s Ari Wallach suggests that “to tackle highly inter-dependent world, individuals the challenges of our day we must (re) and nations can no longer resolve many of introduce another dimension - time their problems by themselves. We need as well as space - and plot these big one another. We must therefore develop problems and their solutions along a sense of universal responsibility… it is a broader time horizon”.26 Time as a our collective and individual responsibility form of relating with the world around to protect and nurture the global family, us changes according to our cultures to support its weaker members and to and forms of social relations. Whilst preserve and tend to the environment in some of the anthropological research is which we all live”.31 contested given the complexities involved in understanding and translating rare languages, some cultures are thought to have no words for the concept of ‘future’ and no past tense.27 If it is not perceived, it is not considered to exist. If at first and decisions, get better at operating with Deep down we know that any sense of this seems strange, perhaps we should imperfect information? As Keith Grint certainty we might feel in a complex reflect for a moment on the growth elaborates, working in such uncertainty scenario can only ever be an illusion. We of meditative practice in the west, for requires us to “ask the right questions know we can’t rely on direct causality mediation is nothing if not a practice of rather than provide the right answers, and predictable relationships to unpack absorption in the present. As Alan Watts because the answers may not be self- these problems. Covid-19 amplifies observes: “If, then, my awareness of past evident and will require a collaborative and accelerates this lesson for us all, 24 and future makes me less aware of the process to make any kind of progress”. illustrating on a previously unimaginable present, I must begin to wonder whether scale what happens in a world of Futures and foresight can add value in this I am living in the real world”.28 emergence and ambiguity. space, and it can do so in a couple of key What’s more, it is through the intimate ways. Simply knowing that certain known If we, therefore, accept the premise that connection between time and space events will happen, and there is a known institutions and structures built on cause- that we can glimpse the dynamic energy and practiced response, enables us to and-effect logic are now largely impotent of change. Doreen Massey suggested manage risk and mitigate harm. Indeed, to respond to the dynamism of complex that “if time is the dimension in which there is relative agreement about the challenges, we need to pause and rethink. things happen one after the other… of core trends impacting society. Whilst we A new mindset is vital in enabling us to succession, then space is the dimension 25 Martineau, J. (2016) Time, Capitalism and Alienation. A Socio-Historical cannot predict the exact form, timing and stretch our imagination into new places Inquiry into the Making of Modern Time. Chicago: Haymarket Books. p. of things being, existing at the same time: 19. manifestation of a future pandemic, for and to consider the possibilities of new of simultaneity. It’s the dimension of 26 Wallach, A. (2013) Forget short-termism. Wired. [online]. Available at: example, we can anticipate it happening things and new ways of being, doing and multiplicity”.29 This is what the ancient www.wired.co.uk/article/forget-short-termism [Accessed 14 October and prepare accordingly. And by opening acting. Futures capabilities are a critical Greeks understood through the notion 2020]. our imaginations to the possible, foresight part of this new mindset to help us better 27 For example, this is thought to be the case with the Piraha language of of ‘kairos’, of time as a space, an opening Brazil. methods enable us to stretch our thinking make sense of the now in the context of up of opportunity. This idea paints in new directions, new domains, and thus the long arc of time. 28 Watts, A (2012) The Wisdom of Insecurity: A Message for an Age of the possibilities of infinite futures held Anxiety. London: Ebury. consider events, ideas and opportunities within the cutting edge of the present, of 29 Doreen, M. & Warburton, N. (2013). Social Science Bites: Doreen that might otherwise lay undiscovered. It trajectories and of multiple directions of Massey on Space. [online] Available at: www.socialsciencespace. is in this work that other disciplines such travel: to take a train across a landscape is com/2013/02/podcastdoreen-massey-on-space [Accessed 08 September 2020]. as science fiction, design thinking and art 24 Grint, K (2008) Wicked problems and clumsy solutions: the role to “cut[-] across a myriad of stories”.30 can really add value. of leadership. Clinical Leader, Vol 1 Number 2. Stockport: BAMM 30 Ibid. Publications. 31 Piburn, S.D. (2002) The Dalai Lama: A Policy of Kindness. Delhi: Motilal Banarsidass.

22 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 23 Hindsight 

Box 2: RSA trends analysis Below we have summarised analysis from a number of RSA reports into a table of Box 3: RSA pressures for change strategic trends that will impact to varying degrees across global, national and local scales. As Longpath recognise, “more important than any of these individual trends are In previous work we have identified a number of factors that are creating their points of intersection. Megatrends, we believe, are like tectonic plates – it’s when pressures for change, particularly across the public sector: they collide that they yield their most transformative impact”.32 Increasing Decreasing

Competition Public trust

Demand Funding

Expectations Relevance

Innovation premium Cognitive bandwidth

Complexity and ambiguity Fit of traditional institutions

Technological change Business models

Disruption Predictability

The third, of extraction and enlightenment support. This saw the rise of systems and the pursuit of progress through science hand-in-hand with futures studies. science, technology and rationalism The fifth, current wave of complexity and inspired what Schultz regarded as emergence and a shift towards deeper competing narratives of the future understanding of the hidden social and Foresight for policy and whose work involved searching and between that of nature and the cultural determinants of our futures. And chartering long-term trends, past patterns possibilities of science. These were as we discuss further, futures thinking strategy and cycles of repetition in determining written about by philosophers and later today grapples with questions and routes of change. Writers like Thomas represented in science fiction novels explorations of inclusion, democratisation Arguably, then, we can see that the Moore, who was considered the first to and film. The premonition inspiring and participation that call for ever more history of futures thinking stems right write of a perfect society, coining the Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein offered creative means to capture and analyse back to human cognitive evolutionary word ‘utopia’, the title of his seminal a foreboding tale that grappled with massive data outputs or create designed origins.33 Indeed, Dr Wendy Schultz text and a pun derived from the Greek scientific ambition and the consequences experiences to help people connect with outlines five waves (see Figure 3) of ou-topos (nowhere) and eu-topos (good of violating the laws of nature. More than potential futures. This is the era in which futures stretched across the last 10,000 just fiction, it can be read as a relevant the multiplicity of futures is ‘for everyone 34 place). years. The first of these is the oral wave, public policy issue for today, a tale of to envision’.38 35 32 Longpath (2020) Longpath megatrends. [online]. Available at: www. following the traditions of shamans, society and ethics, of scientific creativity, longpath.org/megatrends [Accessed 14 October 2020]. It is this context which surrounds the mystics and oracles. In Greek mythology technological advancement and social 33 Hines, A. (2020) When Did It Start? Origin of the Foresight Field. World work of today’s policy- and decision- Cassandra’s dilemma is the curse of being Futures Review, 12(1), 4-11. responsibility.37 makers and those seeking to use foresight granted the gift of perfect knowledge of 34 Schultz, W. L. (2015). A brief history of futures. World Future Review, the future but never being believed. Her 7(4), 324-331. The fourth wave was one of systems practice in their own endeavours. relevance today is witnessed through 35 “We may define the shaman as a social functionary who, with the help and cybernetics, of interconnections and Arguably they are engaging in a tradition unheeded warnings of climate change of guardian spirits, attains ecstasy in order to create a rapport with the interdependencies. Following the Great as old as humankind itself. The value of supernatural world on behalf of his [sic] group members.” Hultkrantz, Depression and the Second World and the ignored forebodings of a global Å (1973) A Definition of Shamanism. Temenos - Nordic Journal of pandemic that will likely shape decades to Comparative Religion, 9, 25. p. 34. War came advancements in technical 37 Sci Pol (2020) Why ‘Frankenstein’ Is a Great Science Policy Guide 36 for the Future. Sci Pol. [online]. Available at: www.scipol.org/ come. 36 See for example: Duncan, D. E. (2020) “Prepare, Prepare, Prepare”: forecasting and systems operations content/why-%E2%80%98frankenstein%E2%80%99-great-science- Why Didn’t the World Listen to the Coronavirus Cassandras?. Vanity needed to mobilise armies of people policy-guide-future [Accessed 14 October 2020]. The second wave, dating back to the Fair. [online]. Available at: www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/why-didnt- and plan the resources needed for their second century BCE, is the written wave the-world-listen-to-the-coronavirus-cassandras [Accessed 14 October 38 Duncan, D. E. (2020) op. cit. characterised by the macrohistorians 2020]. 24 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 25 Hindsight 

Beyond the more tried and tested foresight is that it has become a well- of course this remains an important application of methods in governmental established field (see Boxes 4 and 5) with aspect (see the chapter on policymakers and commercial settings, foresight is also a robust academic underpinning, based and Appendix E). Such work has to increasingly used in various ways in social on the fundamental idea that the future be grounded in a broader perspective, or community settings. Ultimately it is is open and cannot be predicted but that where, at its best, futures and foresight here that social, economic, environmental it can be shaped. This philosophy speaks competencies: and technological trends will play out, and to the human legacy of thinking about the it is here that the opportunity and need future. • Facilitate exchanges between people, bringing diverse perspectives to the to involve citizens in futures exercises Those working in the field “generally table and planning needs to be central to any refer to this discipline almost • Develop learning and stimulate efforts at change. interchangeably, as futures (oriented engagement among all relevant around the subject matter) or foresight stakeholders Box 4: Benefits for policymakers (oriented around the competency), and not futurism or futurology”.39 Strategic • Broaden the participants’ horizons A simple definition of foresight is the disciplined exploration of alternative futures. 43 For foresight, in turn, might be described and help develop shared perceptions policymakers, foresight techniques and studies help them explore different scenarios in a structured as an organised and systematic process of challenges. way to confront complex challenges and help create a better future. Foresight helps policymakers to: through which to engage with uncertainty That these descriptions get at the heart regarding the future, “the ability to of the role of the policymaker is clear. • Evaluate current policy priorities and potential new policy directions create and sustain a variety of high quality Further, at its best, foresight offers • See how the impact of possible policy decisions may combine with other developments forward views and to apply the emerging some advantages (see Box 4) to more • Inform, support and link policymaking in and across a range of sectors traditional policy processes, as:42 insights in organisationally useful ways; for • Identify future directions, emerging technologies, new societal demands and challenges example, to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy; to explore • An action-driven collective • Anticipate future developments, disruptive events, risks and opportunities. new markets, products and services. It intelligence exercise represents a fusion of futures methods • It is structured, systematic, with those of strategic management”.40 participatory and inclusive Box 5: FOREN definition • It deals with the medium to long-term As the field emerges into the mid-21st future The FOREN (Foresight for Regional Development Network) definition states that foresight century, policymakers and practitioners involves five essential elements:44 of futures and foresight are facing a core • It informs present-day decisions and challenge which many of our interviewees facilitates joint actions • Structured anticipation and projections of long-term social, economic and technological discussed. Sitting at the heart of this • It helps plan major spending, define developments and needs. fifth wave of foresight is the question the strategy of your organisation or • Interactive and participative methods of exploratory debate, analysis and study, involving a wide of whether existing methodologies can transition in the economic or political variety of stakeholders, are also characteristic of foresight. accommodate complexity and systems system. • Forging new social networks. Emphasis on the networking role varies across foresight thinking alongside broader principles At its worst, of course, like many programmes. It is often taken to be equally, if not more, important than the more formal of inclusion, power dynamics and endeavours, it can be tokenistic, products such as reports and lists of action points. democratisation of process? exclusionary, pre-determined or simply • The formal products of foresight go beyond the presentation of scenarios and beyond the diversionary. The charge to policymakers is how they preparation of plans. What is crucial is the elaboration of a guiding strategic vision, to which can ensure that futures and foresight there can be a shared sense of commitment (achieved, in part, through the networking methods are not deployed as simply processes). reductionist or mechanistic processes, • This shared vision is not a utopia. There has to be explicit recognition and explication of the but that they take account of these 39 Candy, S. (2020). Private email correspondence. implications for present day decisions and actions. challenges. In doing so, they are seeking 40 Slaughter, R. (1997) Developing and applying strategic foresight. ABN an appropriate balance between the best Report, 5(10), 13–27. 43 European Commission (2020) About foresight in Research and Innovation. [online]. Available at: www.rb.gy/qa9vya [Accessed 14 that each of the five waves offers them, 41 Taylor, M., Conway, R. and Burbidge, I. (2017) Think like a system, act October 2020]. from the magical to the rational, between like an entrepreneur. Annual Review of Social Partnerships Volume 2017, 44 Gavigan J., Scapolo F., Keenan M., Miles I., Farhi F., Lecoq D., the art, science and craft of change.41 Issue 12. [online]. Available at: www.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/ tandfbis/rt-files/Docs/ARSP_12_web.pdf [Accessed 14 October 2020]. Capriati M., and Di Bartolomeo, T. (2001) A Practical Guide to Regional Foresight. European Commission. [pdf]. Available at: 42 European Commission (2020) Foresight: what, why and how. Science for To achieve this balance it is not enough www.projects.mcrit.com/esponfutures/documents/European%20 Policy Briefs. [pdf]. Available at: www.ec.europa.eu/knowledge4policy/ to simply recognise what foresight is Studies/P.%20Gavigan%20J.%20(2001)%20FOREN%20 sites/know4pol/files/foresight_briefme.pdf [Accessed 14 October 2020]. and apply its core methods - although Foresight%20for%20Regional%20Development%20Network.pdf [Accessed 14 October 2020]. 26 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 27 Hindsight 

Figure 3: Five waves of futures based on work by Wendy Schultz.45 decisions taken now that will usher in Hindsight: we’ve always long-term benefits, from social investment in infrastructure to personal investment thought about the future in pensions”. “But the future is still not Tactical arguments. “It is hard enough here, and cannot become a part of to accept trade-offs and sacrifices today experienced reality until it is pres- for the benefit of people we know. Are ent. Since what we know of the fu- you really asking me to make sacrifices for ture is made up of purely abstract the unknown billions to come as well?” and logical elements - inferences, guesses, deductions - it cannot be

Psychological bandwidth arguments. eaten, felt, smelled, seen, heard, or “Of course, I would love to think about otherwise enjoyed. To pursue it is the needs of society and people living to pursue a constantly retreating in the future, but I am living here and phantom, and the faster you chase now under constrained and challenging it, the faster it runs ahead”. circumstances. I have a hard enough time Alan Watts47 thinking about my immediate future, how I’m going to feed my family with my with Core take-aways low and uncertain wages. I have little Humanity. To think about the future certainty about the next few weeks let and to plan ahead is to be human; alone about the next few generations. It is our evolution depended on it. Homo all too much to think about”. prospectus has always had a futures and Just-another-tool argument. “I have foresight mindset. How we think about more than enough to think about in order and view the future is vitally important Provocations and Epistemological arguments. “We to do my job effectively. I’m good at using to how we think about and act in the will always know much more about the the methods that have served me well to present. In turn, our present context is challenges present, and with more precision. The date. I just don’t have the time to learn vitally important to how we think about more distant our focus the less clearly we new ones”. the future. There are a number of challenges see and therefore the more prone we will and tensions for futures and foresight Fatalism argument. “What will be will Uncertainty. Futures and foresight be to misinterpretation and mistake”. practitioners to navigate if their be. The future is so uncertain as to leave offers a way to think about and approach application is to maximise value. Of Democratic arguments. “We little point in acting now”. some of our most intractable, complex course, almost no one says ‘I prefer to can exercise real accountability in social challenges, and therefore provides These are reflected in our research, only focus on the short-term and I don’t democracies. Once we start talking about additional mechanisms to help navigate were we identify. These are issues care about the future’, so it is important future citizens, who cannot express a the uncertainty inherent in life in general of commission – who decides who is to reflect on the reasons why people view as they don’t yet exist, we end up and social change in particular. involved in futures work; omission – who might dismiss futures and foresight. Here making value-based assumptions about speaks for those who cannot be involved Change. Tools and methods in change we offer some of the explicit and implicit what they would want, thus replacing because they have no current voice; and practices tend to focus more on arguments against futures and foresight democracy with a form of futuristic colonisation – who has the right to defer understanding what has happened in the so that we can acknowledge and engage paternalism”. today’s problems for future generations past (hindsight) as opposed to what is with them. We do so in the voice of the “If markets to fix? about to happen or what we want to see protagonist. Conceptual arguments. and policymaking work well there should happen in the future (foresight). Futures These are important arguments to Ethical arguments. “Our duty is to be no difference between the short and and foresight therefore offers benefits for address. In this report we go on real people facing real needs now, not to long term. If people think a company those seeking change, particularly as we to explore the opportunities for the uncertain needs that imaginary people is going to go bust it should impact its need to work with a deeper and more organisations, policymakers and society may or may not face in the future - and value now (as is happening with carbon nuanced understanding of the hidden to adopt more of a futures mindset. which they can decide how to solve. To divestment). There are, in turn, many social and cultural determinants of our In doing so we illustrate how leading quote Lomborg, the alarmism around futures. 45 Schultz, W. (2015) Op cit. practitioners in the field have overcome climate change ‘is not only false but 46 Lomberg, B. (2020) How climate change alarmists are actually these arguments. morally unjust. It leads us to make poor endangering the planet. The New York Post. [online]. Available at: www. decisions based on fear, when the world nypost.com/2020/07/11/how-climate-change-alarmists-are-actually- not only has gotten better, but will be damaging-the-planet [Accessed 14 October 2020]. 47 Watts, A. (2012) op cit. [Kindle Edition]. pg. 60, loc. 526. even better over the century’”.46 28 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 29 during the tumultuous 1970s and 1980s “To start, our brains evolved For organisations: that the foresight mindset really became embedded within Shell. Across the to create certainty and order. develop futures organisation, foresight practice gained recognition and highlighted the inherent We are uncomfortable with the competencies value of challenging assumptions and testing business strategy against what n this chapter we explore the role

idea that luck plays a significant is plausible and not necessarily based of foresight in an organisational on experience or the present moment. role in our lives. We recognise the context, offering five building blocks Within the private sector corporate for organisations seeking to embed foresight typically supports strategic Iit in institutional process and practice and existence of luck, but we resist the planning and decision-making, for example thus secure long-term value: identifying new markets, developing idea that, despite our best efforts, 1 Broaden time horizons innovative solutions and highlighting 2 Develop capabilities potential areas of risk. things might not work out the way 3 Integrate with existing processes Foresight can also function as an in- 4 Overcome resistance house observatory to gauge new socio- we want. It feels better for us to economic trends or as a thinktank 5 Evaluate and learn dedicated to deep foresight activities imagine the world as an orderly on mega trends, weak signals and future Broaden time horizons innovations in specific fields. Although place, where randomness does previously affiliated with the military A crisis serves to accelerate and intensify or national security fields. corporate not wreak havoc and things are pre-existing trends, forcing leaders foresight is widely applied in a range of of organisations, governments and industries such as professional services communities to take immediate, short- (eg Arup), financial services (eg Aviva), perfectly predictable. We evolved term actions to mitigate the immediate 49 information and communications to see the world that way. Creating effects. Later come questions of technology (eg BT) and consumer goods preparedness and vulnerability: ‘why (eg Proctor and Gamble). didn’t we see it coming?’ The answer, order out of chaos has been usually, is that it was anticipated, though Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the breadth perhaps not in its exact form, timing and of issues the public sector is concerned necessary for our survival.” impact. For many in the public health about, governments are also major 48 and infectious disease control, a global proponents of futures and foresight work. Annie Duke pandemic is not a surprise. For a country like Singapore, adopting a foresight mindset within the public Foresight capacity within institutions service and government agencies was offers a set of mechanisms through which determined by assessing its social and such possible events can be anticipated. economic vulnerabilities and geopolitical Its deployment is generally accelerated challenges as a small island state with by such a shock as crises render the an ethnically diverse population. The need for the business or organisation to Singapore foresight system is one of the fundamentally re-evaluate its purpose, better known in the public sector (see operating model and resilience. A critical Case study 1). role of futures and foresight is therefore to offer a set of tools and approaches that support this endeavour. Whilst the work of the Shell futures unit, one of the best-known examples, began developing scenario planning techniques in the late 1960s, it was 48 Duke, A. (2019) Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts. London: Portfolio. For organisations: For competencies futures develop 49 Interview with Graham Leicester, International Futures Forum.

30 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 31 

Strategic planning and foresight can When viewed in the rear-view mirror provide a range of benefits at regional of time, exogenous shocks of varying Case study 1 and local levels of government and public magnitudes and durations can re- services too. Here the potential lies emphasise the importance of futures and Singapore foresight system in helping assess and respond to local foresight, not just through anticipation risks (eg coastal erosion or the ageing of disruption and potential response hile the practical origins This evolved through various iterations population in Norfolk, UK), as well as mechanisms, but also by facilitating of the Singapore foresight including in 2003 the Scenario Planning offering a framing for thinking and talking a longer-term view of the world and system can be traced back Office becoming the Strategic Policy about other local issues and pressures our place in it. It is this broadening of to experiments within the Office to reflect its enhanced work scope that citizens care about. In this way it can time horizons that offers much of the MinistryW of Defence in the late 1980s, its and responsibilities. At the executive level “Only a support the development of a vision and institutional benefits from foresight. philosophical foundations were arguably foresight was prioritised as a practice future- strong narrative for the future wellbeing laid in 1979.51 The Minister for Foreign and a culture within the public service, and prosperity of local communities. For Affairs at the time, S Rajaratnam, made articulating the sponsorship and support orientated example, both Norfolk County Council Box 6: Ministries of futures the case for long term planning and future from the highest levels of government and and the devolved combined authority of society In the age of risks and uncertainties oriented thinking in a speech in which he underscoring the whole-of-government Manchester have set goals for net carbon stated that ‘only a future-oriented society approach to long-term thinking and emissions by 2030 and 2028 respectively. siloed assessments of future risks can cope and departmental scenario planning can cope with the problems of the 21st planning. Their future-focused strategies and century”. 52 with the implementation plans span visions for are leaving governments unprepared, In addition, a series of shocks and crises the local environment and infrastructure equipped only for a linear, predictable The Scenario Planning Branch within reinforced the need for foresight in the 50 problems (including housing and transport), for response, built on analogue data. the Ministry of Defence undertook Singapore government, including the society (including health and wellbeing) Ministries of futures, such as the UAE’s scenario studies, with security as their Asian financial crisis of 1997, the terrorist of the 21st for jobs, industry and technology and Ministry of Possibilities and Bologna’s primary concern. In 1991, the government attacks of 11 September 2001, various century” community empowerment. Civic Imagination Office, point the way determined that scenario planning pandemics including SARS in 2003, the for a new, integrated, cross-governmental could be a tool for long-term strategic global financial crisis of 2008 and the Shocks can also accelerate the appetite capacity for the structured, real-time, and policy development. Strategic growing tensions between the USA and for foresight in the third sector. data-driven design of integrated predictive foresight in this context focused on China. This collectively catalysed the Precipitated by the largely unexpected models, future scenarios, and risk analysis. socio-economic challenges, threats and political mandate for a foresight mindset outcomes of Brexit and the 2016 US aspirations, highlighting, too, the growing and with executive leadership and support presidential election, the Omidyar prominence of foresight to policymaking the mandate created a fertile environment Network was motivated to investigate as the practice became more aligned to for a foresight culture to flourish. how it might do things differently and national strategy planning within central thus decided to develop its internal government. foresight capacity. As a philanthropic investment firm committed to catalysing economic and social change, the Exploration & Future Sensing team executes the organisation’s foresight mandate. This aims to identify weak signals, blindspots, and emergent ideas through sense-making, translate and disseminate them through dialogue, creative communications and storytelling, and incubate and test innovative solutions.

51 Public Service Division, Singapore (2011) Conversations for the Future Volume One: Singapore’s Experiences with Strategic Planning (1988– 2011). [pdf]. Available at: www.csf.gov.sg/files/media-centre/publications/ conversations-for-the-future.pdf [Accessed 14 October, 2020]. 50 Johar, I. and Begovic, M. (2020) A way forward: Governing in the age of emergence. UNDP/Dark Matter Labs. [online]. Available at: 52 Kuah, A.W.J. (2013) Foresight and Policy: Thinking About Singapore’s www.awayforward.undp.org/ [Accessed 14 October, 2020]. Future(s). ]pdf]. Available at: ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent. cgi?article=1111&context=lien_research [Accessed 14 October, 2020].

32 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 33 For organisations

Develop capabilities With foresight methods generally not The development of capabilities in has a clear responsibility to champion, as embedded across local government, organisations committed to foresight deliver, coordinate and support foresight A pre-requisite of an institutional and under the challenge of austerity methods stretches beyond simply activities. This aligns the unit with foresight culture and mindset is a strategic and reducing funding, there are specific conducting one-off exercises. Rather it strategic planning and risk management commitment at the executive level. challenges for local decision-makers expands to include the development of a functions and also allows them to incubate Organisations must recruit, retain and to overcome in their use of foresight futures mindset and culture within vital and catalyse foresight capabilities and retrain skilled individuals who are able approaches. One approach is to teams across the organisation. coordinate the mainstreaming of foresight to conduct foresight studies and know undertake light-touch training, capacity activities throughout the organisation.

how to use foresight methods and embed building and role creation. A concerted Regular and consistent foresight activities them within existing processes. Central effort for this kind of approach was Box 7: Policy Competencies enhance the practice and understanding to this work is the ability to design and undertaken at Norfolk County Council of foresight within an organisation. These facilitate participatory processes and where Dr Andrew Staines, assistant A knowledgeable and skilled policy may respond to political commitments or dialogues, to distil emerging insights director for strategy, innovation and professional considers the long-term foresight obligations set out in legislation and implications, and to translate them performance sought to upskill staff impact and potential outcomes of policy or arise from a significant government into context for those involved in internally before embarking on deploying recommendations; understands the future proposal. strategy formulation or policymaking. foresight methods in their work. prospects, opportunities and challenges Such practitioners may include, but in the policy area; communicates these The more foresight tools and not be limited to, foresight specialists, Capabilities extend beyond the effectively; is aware that there are a range methodologies are part of the policy or policymakers, researchers and analysts. organisational boundaries, too. It is of tools to develop futures-thinking and strategy life cycle the more robust the Indeed, we talk later in the report about critically important to increase the foresight; commissions the building of process. Such a process is illustrated in the value an understanding of foresight understanding of foresight exercises such evidence; engages with experts in the ‘futures bridge’ (see Figure 4). It can approaches offers as a complement to the amongst partner agencies, the public and the field of futures-thinking and foresight. be seen that the ideas and insights that methods and models of other disciplines. other key stakeholders. Indeed, involving The Policy Profession Standards describe emerge from foresight work can best ‘outsiders’ from other disciplines can the skills and knowledge required by influence the policy cycle at the ‘formulate Achieving widespread understanding of provide helpful perspective, challenge policy professionals at all stages of their policy’ stage. 55 It is often difficult to make foresight work is crucial given its potential and understanding. Peter Padbury, chief career, and provide a framework for this link in practice, however, and the to impact all aspects of the business. futurist at Policy Horizons Canada, professional development. 54 influence of foresight on policy cannot be Relevant personnel need to be engaged, illustrated how running a parallel process assumed. particularly these charged with addressing which involves outsiders (in this case, Further opportunities to embed a particular problem or challenge, the key those outside of the public sector) can futures and foresight may occur as part decision-makers, strategists, accountants, also benefit the foresight activity. Policy of a review process when the entire evaluators and others tasked with Horizons Canada involved young people Integrate with existing organisation is geared up for a strategic dissecting the risks and opportunities in their foresight exercises to gain diverse processes refresh;56 for governments this may involved in making sense of uncertain perspectives and help surface shifts in Introducing a futures perspective can coincide with an electoral cycle. In Finland futures and implications for policy values and attitudes within the public create new possibilities for organisations each government on assuming office implementation. domain. in their strategic and transformational indicates, via the government programme, Some governments address this challenge As ever, communication is key. In every work as well as in everyday project its vision and action plan which also by ensuring that most public servants organisational context, communications management and planning. To realise identifies the theme for the government have a basic knowledge of foresight and and public engagement personnel, these benefits, it is imperative that foresight report. The release date of that decision-makers receive customised supplemented perhaps by anthropologists, foresight exercises are not viewed as the report is timed to allow the report training so that they understand its value storytellers, designers and other ‘optional extras’ but rather become findings to inform current government to public policy. In Singapore, the Centre creatives, can be engaged as a core an integral part of the strategy and activities and reviews. For organisations for Strategic Futures host a series of part of the foresight work. This can policymaking toolbox. Developing operating in the philanthropic space, FutureCraft workshops to introduce stretch beyond the simple post hoc the architecture needed to support a key foresight skills and toolkits to public foresight mandate and capability within an 54 Policy Profession (2019) Policy Profession Standards: a framework for communication of emerging insights to professional development. [pdf]. Available at: www.assets.publishing. officers. These include training in basic include the design and accessibility of organisation is crucial. service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/ foresight tools and facilitation techniques the sessions and the information sharing file/851078/Policy_Profession_Standards_AUG19.pdf [Accessed 14 Typically, organisations establish foresight using a specific public policy issue and throughout the process. October, 2020]. scenario planning methodology.53 The UK units at the senior executive level or 55 Government Office for Science (2017) Futures Toolkit, version 1.0. and the EU have also introduced foresight with a direct reporting function to the [pdf]. Available at: www.assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/ executive management team which uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/674209/futures-toolkit- as alongside the core competencies of 53 Centre for Strategic Studies (2020) FutureCraft. [online]. Available at: edition-1.pdf [Accessed 14 October, 2020]. policymakers. www.csf.gov.sg/our-work/future-craft/ [Accessed 14 October, 2020]. 56 See Case study 2: Futures and foresight in a financial services organisation (FSO). 34 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 35 For organisations

the output from a foresight exercise can Building empathy for the future into inform action planning as well. For the organisational processes that are designed Box 8: Embedding foresight within policy Omidyar Network, the opportunities for efficiency, compliance and risk Singapore’s Centre for Strategic Futures, which forms part of the new Strategy Group which emerge from trends surfacing or mitigation in policy- and decision-making in the Prime Minister’s Office, operates as a central node in a network of foresight units sector deep-dives are used to establish may seem antithetical. Yet it is here within government. This supports collaboration, decision-making and standardisation of a pipeline of experiments or a suite of that the clear added value can be seen, training and learning activities across the rest of the public service. Other countries have innovative ideas ideal for testing and stretching thinking beyond the short- a more devolved and networked approach. In Germany there is no centrally directed scaling. term, bringing in different perspectives foresight body or system, but instead a collage of independent yet publicly supported or and challenging the underpinning thinking It is crucial to reinforce the point that funded institutions. within a team or organisation. foresight is not a process to be ticked Within the Finnish foresight system there is no single unified top down approach but off, as if we were producing, say, the end Aligning foresight work with key decision rather an integration of multiple actors from the public, private and third sectors of year accounts: “Futures work is highly points helps give it both currency and which overlap and participate with flexibility and independence.58 This system consists 57 relational. It’s about not just when, but legitimacy. Currency is the way in of national level actors (such as the Finnish Parliament’s Committee for the Future, also who, and where you are. It’s not a which there is a shared and common ministries and government agencies and The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra), regional compliance process you can just step understanding amongst all actors across level actors (such as regional councils and municipalities), and other foresight actors through automatically, checking boxes; the organisation or government, building (such as think tanks, companies, universities, NGOs and interest groups). There are much less a product to buy and be done a shared language that helps remove several networks connecting these, the main one being the national foresight network with it. It’s more like dancing. I expect barriers and siloed group think between coordinated by the Prime Minister’s Office The Finnish government foresight report to see more organisations realising they departments. Legitimacy is the extent to typically targets the mid-term policy review to act as a reference for government could use a few dancing lessons”. Many which the output of any foresight exercise progress and ministerial reviews. Furthermore, political parties in upcoming elections are interviewees discussed this need to helps test assumptions, build resilience, provided with information to help them design campaign platforms that better address prompt a ‘sense of empathy and sympathy stress-test existing policy directions and emerging and futures challenges.59 for the future ‘us’ that would have to live create space for new innovative solutions in [an envisaged world] and the challenges to emerge. Achieving these is to add value In the UK, the Government Office for Science has the mandate for UK foresight we would face’. to the business. activities. It draws insights from a multitude of actors and collaborators from thinktanks, corporate foresight professionals, academia and from networks within the public sector. There remains scope for futures to be adopted in more systematic and inclusive ways by UK local authorities and the local public sector., where time and budgetary constraints Figure 4: The futures bridge limit the ability to effectively integrate foresight into business planning cycles.

Formulate Develop policy responses Implement policy Modify objectives Describe what the future might Monitor be like current events Evaluate impact

Explore 58 Kuosa, T. (2011) Practicing Strategic Foresight in Government: The Cases the Anticipate of Finland, Sinagpore and the European Union. [pdf]. Available at: www. dynamics future forschungsnetzwerk.at/downloadpub/RSIS-Monograph19.pdf [Accessed 14 of change events October, 2020]. Gather 59 OECD (2019) Strategic Foresight for Better Policies. [pdf]. Available at: intelligence www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/ourwork/Strategic%20Foresight%20 for%20Better%20Policies.pdf [Accessed 14 October, 2020]. 57 Candy, S. (2020). Personal email correspondence. 36 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 37 Case study 2 Futures and foresight in a financial services organisation (FSO)

Overcome resistance often a path-dependent and technocratic exercise.64 There remains a danger that It is critical to secure the support of foresight gets over-simplified as part senior decision-makers in futures and of this process favouring certainty. The foresight processes right from the array of what was described as ‘hot start. Naturally this is best achieved by foresight’, ‘readymade’ or ‘off-the-peg including them in foresight exercises, futures’ was seen to devalue the practice ensuring the work is seen by others as causing ‘futures fatigue’. Linked to this, critical to the business. A fundamental the over-emphasis on disaster speculation challenge of embedding any new idea, and causality is considered by many to function or initiative in any organisation be disempowering, preventing decision- or community is overcoming what the makers from feeling like they are able to RSA has previously referred to as the do something now in order to deal with ‘system immune response’.60 This is the bigger issues. the activation of a series of responses designed to crowd out new ideas and Interviewees frequently cited challenges initiatives and protect the status quo, around advocating the work and the his case shows how working with • How will we innovate for success? Are value of futures and foresight processes an internal champion can broker we fit for purpose? whether for reasons of risk, reputation, incentives, comfort, media or others. The and projects. They commented on the and facilitate the integration of Researching these questions enabled Futures and introduction of futures and foresight must need to embed a wide range of additional futures and foresight processes. participants to link a consideration of the communication tools and approaches into TAn action learning set was established in a foresight be sensitive to this likely push-back. future with possibilities in the present. A their foresight process to build visibility, medium-sized UK-based financial services review of learning so far had revealed that “allowed the In government, the increasing demand gain traction and attention from different organisation in an attempt to engage with futures and foresight had “allowed the for futures and foresight appears to be audiences including key decision-makers. a wider set of staff in the FSO. time and space to start the development time and space tempered by concerns over its predictive One observation, that “communicating Futures and foresight was suggested of an internal capability that is aligned to start the power, risks of accountability, and the project is more than half the battle” to one manager who was concerned to supporting our long-term growth challenges over evidence of impact. On is mirrored by another, that “unless with the strategic development of the aspirations”. As employees, they could development the one hand, are those saying that a advocacy is hard baked into the approach, organisation and was aware of the see how futures and foresight was “now longer-term mindset is needed now more you won’t persuade people to pay limitations on thinking of the previous 10 starting to ground our work in actionable of an internal than ever, due in large part to the failures attention to it”. outcomes”. One way of doing this was to of traditional economic thinking,61 as years, during which the organisation, and capability that Identifying foresight champions within the sector as a whole, had come close to develop mini-scenarios as part of the key “our economy is based on the belief that task of integrating futures and foresight we can extract resources boundlessly, organisations and spotting the points disaster. Futures and foresight seemed is aligned to in policy processes where their skills an attractive new direction to explore. A into organisational life. As a result of the use them inefficiently, and discard them interest shown in the mini-scenarios and supporting wantonly, drawing from the planet more can be most effectively leveraged is time horizon of 2025 was quickly agreed vital; such a network of practitioners but it took longer to find the focus: “The the experiences of using the futures and than it can regenerate and polluting more foresight tools, this work had an early our long- than we can clean up”.62 On the other can really demonstrate value by being future of FSO services” and an outcome connected horizontally with their of: “sustain why the FSO community is benefit when the outcome of a process term growth hand, are those wary of placing too much enabled a decision on interest rates which stall in futures and foresight approaches, peers as well as being embedded within here”. Participants explored questions vertical hierarchies. Setting up the right such as: provided for a significant financial saving. aspirations” given the inherent human desire for certainty.63 organisational infrastructure was seen • How is regulation changing and what as important in this endeavour with Several interviewees noted that do we need to put in place? policymakers dislike uncertainty • How will people’s attitudes and 60 Conway, R., Burbidge, I., Maani, S. and Timmons, L. (2018) Move fast with there being this “hidden set of and fix things: how to be public entrepreneur. RSA. [pdf]. Available at: emotions towards financial needs assumptions that there is a robust policy, www.thersa.org/reports/move-fast-and-fix-things [Accessed 14 October change across generations? but not a transformative policy”. Indeed, 2020]. • How will self-ownership and self- 61 See Raworth, K. (2017) Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like this is the three-step ‘diagnose, prescribe, a 21st-Century. London: Cornerstone. knowledge of services evolve? implement’ process summarised by Adam 62 Figueres, C. and Rivett-Carnac, T. (2020) The Future We Choose: • Will people be able to afford to save Kahane that emphasises policymaking is Surviving the Climate Crisis. London: Manilla Press. p. 41. and want to save for tomorrow? 63 As discussed in Chapter 1. 64 Kahane, A. (2017) Collaborating with the enemy: How to Work with People You Don’t Agree with or Like or Trust. San Francisco: Berrett- Koehler Publishers.

38 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 39 For organisations

teams building a strong network base and Many of the impacts from this work are Internal evaluation can be supplemented community of practice given legitimacy therefore intangible and can be difficult with learning processes. Insights and by senior sponsors and champions. to separate from other processes. practices from other disciplines and Supporting this is the considerable As foresight is used to guide strategic perspectives support learning, and many amount of capacity building and training direction, so the impact of identifying organisations create or engage with that futures teams are investing in. Over appropriate trends or avoiding bad a network beyond their institutional the years, the capacity building arm has decisions can be unknowable - there is boundaries. In 2014, the Rockefeller become a consistent function that’s often no counterfactual.65 The evaluation Foundation established the Searchlight actively prioritised by the Singaporean of policy implementation, strategic Network which “was an international Centre for Strategic Futures even in decisions or project delivery can be hard community of practice that utilised unusual circumstances and futures literacy enough before factoring in the impact pro-poor foresight activities to identify is the core of UNESCO’s mission and foresight has had on these processes. problems and opportunities as they vision. It is important, too, to distinguish emerged in the Global South”.67 The between process and outcome evaluation, network deployed a programme of particularly to avoid the traps of outcome horizon scanning and trend monitoring, Evaluate and learn bias.66 The quality of the process can be aimed at informing strategic philanthropic For foresight to become firmly established more important that the ultimate result decision-making. The Omidyar Network as a core policy tool, it must overcome for, as we have previously discussed, are developing capacity across an senior decision-makers conservatism in foresight is about stretching thinking and emerging staff network and linking adopting new methods and tendencies imagination into new possibilities more it into wider communities. Similarly, towards control. Developing robust than it is about prediction. many governments learn from others through communities of practice and impact evaluation mechanisms is Some organisations have adopted global foresight networks. One of the important in achieving this, as it allows other metrics by which they measure most prominent networks is hosted by practitioners to clearly demonstrate their impact. In client- or outcome-oriented the OECD, the Government Foresight value to senior decision-makers. businesses, these are focused on simple, Community which convenes annually to often quantitative measures such as Of course, it is much more simply said exchange ideas and effective foresight how much money the foresight team than done. There are many factors practice. Appendix F lists out some of that make the impact of foresight generates (or might have saved) for a those we came across in our research. particularly challenging to measure. firm, how many bids it supports, how The most immediate barrier is the many times its reports are downloaded, scale at which projects using foresight as well as client satisfaction surveys. One operate. Frequently having a scope interviewee cited an example of a financial in excess of 10 years, such projects institution that saved £0.25m through the would require substantial resources identification and application of emerging to evaluate longitudinally. In almost all consumer trends to their business model. cases, the demands of such an evaluation Finnish thinktank Sitra have perhaps done are prohibitive. As such, foresight more work than most on this conundrum practitioners use other metrics to (see Case study 3). evaluate the impact of their work. One common (and non-resource intensive) method is to survey foresight workshop 65 With the occasional business example, such as the participants on how the exercises contrasting approaches taken by Kodak and Fuji in response to emergence of digital photography (see for changed how they think about the example: Kmia, O. (2018) Why Kodak Died and Fujifilm future. These are intended to measure Thrived: A Tale of Two Film Companies. PetaPixel. the impact of foresight at an individual [online]. Available at: www.petapixel.com/2018/10/19/ why-kodak-died-and-fujifilm-thrived-a-tale-of-two-film- level. While it is important to record companies [Accessed 15 October 2020]. the change in the futures mindset, such 66 See, for example: Interaction Design Foundation (2016) evaluation methods only operate in the Outcome Bias – Not All Outcomes are Created Equal. [online]. Available at: www.interaction-design.org/ immediate term and do not show impact 67 Martin-Breen, B. (2014) Using Foresight to Surface Social literature/article/outcome-bias-not-all-outcomes-are- Problems. Rockefeller Foundation. [online]. Available at: /www. over the length of a project. created-equal [Accessed 15 October 2020]. rockefellerfoundation.org/blog/using-foresight-surface-social-problems [Accessed 15 October 2020].

40 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 41 Case study 3

itra, the Finnish futures thinktank, Sitra: evaluating provides an exemplary case study in how to evaluate the impact impact of foresight. Sitra begins Sits evaluation process by asking: “why evaluate futures work and foresight?”68 Not only does evaluation inform strategic management, it also creates forums for learning and feedback loops, enhancing the practice of the entire organisation. In doing this, Sitra focuses not simply on the outcomes of a foresight exercise, but on the process and how outcomes are produced, whether successful or not. It also considers different perspectives on EVALUATING impact. It ranges from the individual level, considering how it has improved people’s 4 Supporting learning and development futures literacy, to the organisation level, during the evaluation process, and where it looks at futures preparedness and how the organisation makes such a of 5 Using methodologies that are foresight. appropriate for the evaluation IMPACT purpose and context.70 Sitra expands the scope of evaluation Having a set of clearly defined core from specific projects or processes to the principles enables Sitra to develop impact of futures work in society.69This is impact evaluation questions and goals because evaluation using the traditional that cohere around these principles.71 logic model of input–output–outcome– Evaluation is not a one-size-fits-all type impact is rooted in linear thinking, of activity. The design requires adaptation whereas Sitra understands its actions and to the exercise and having an agreed set the environment in which it operates to of principles facilitates this. From this, be more complex, particularly given its Sitra then conducts analysis of its impact ambition for systemic change. There are using a range of methods, from measuring five key principles that underpin Sitra’s changes in how Finnish people think about approach to evaluation: the future, analyses of futures discourse in 1 Taking into account the long-time the media, bibliometric analysis of Sitra’s span of societal changes work in academic journals, governmental 2 Applying a holistic approach to reports and other expert publications, systemic changes and assessments of how Sitra has 3 Focusing on contribution of an progressed in achieving its strategic goals. Evaluating the impact of foresight is organisation (instead of attribution These all combine to turn evaluation when it is not possible) into a process of capacity building and difficult and resource intensive. Sitra provides organisational learning, which in turn an excellent example in how to do this recursively improves Sitra’s futures work. effectively. Sitra begins its evaluation process by asking: “why evaluate futures

68 Parkkonen, P. (2019) How can futures work and foresight be evaluated?. work and foresight?” Sitra. Available at: www.sitra.fi/en/blogs/how-to-evaluate-futures-work- and-foresight/ [Accessed 15 October 2020]. 69 Vataja, K., Dufva, M., & Parkkonen, P. (2019). Evaluating the Impact of a Futures-Oriented Organization. World Futures Review, 11(4), 320– 330. https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756719858802 70 Ibid, p. 322. 71 For more information on these questions and goals, see Ibid, p. 323.

42 AA stitch stitch in in time? time? Realising Realising the the value value of of futures futures and and foresight foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 43 For organisations

For organisations: develop and supportive of that future are more futures competencies adaptive and resilient as a result. “I have all my life been Recommendations for considering distant effects and al- ways sacrificing immediate success organisations “The unknown of our and applause to that of the future. In laying out Central Park we de- • Establish the chief foresight officer experience is not the same as termined to think of no result to (or equivalent) as a core C-suite role, be realised in less than 40 years”.72 charged with responsibility for the the unknown of knowledge. FL Olmsted long-term impact of the organisation. Establish equivalents in public, social and charity sectors together with Moving into the unknown and Core take-aways for mechanisms to share success. organisations • Develop an incentives and reporting making it known in a new way structure and a code of ethics for all • Practice. To account for the future, businesses that shifts the balance away is just what we living things organisations we have to consider from short-term, often unsustainable the long-term impact of short-term actions whose sole aim is to maximise do… Each moment grows actions, yet this is not standard shareholder value, and prioritise practice across many cultures, instead longer-term, sustainable from the commitment of the industries and sectors, fuelled in part practice and value generation for by our capitalist economic incentive shareholders and for wider society. preceding one into a particular structures. • Identify and connect • Process. Foresight shouldn’t be those organisations actively working path, a holding together of the seen as a stand-alone set of activities to embed long-term perspectives but should be integrated into the 73 into their work. Seek opportunities whole with skilful care.” culture. It needs to run through the to align, test and amplify their work organisation’s cultural structures and so that longer-term time horizons Bill Sharpe assumptions in order to overcome become more of an institutional resistance and add maximum value to norm. the organisation. The more foresight tools and methodologies are part of the strategic life-cycle the more robust the policy- and decision- making process. • Resilience. Evaluation of foresight methods is not an exact science, given there is no counterfactual, rendering the benefits often intangible. This should not dissuade executives from seeing foresight as a complement to strategy and decision-making processes. Indeed, the resilience that can result from future-proofing is where much of the value can be found. Organisations that question the long- term role they play in a system and that continue to change to be relevant

72 Rybczynski, W. (2000) A Clearing in the Distance: Frederick Law Olmsted and North America in the Nineteenth Century. New York: Scribner. develop a futures mindset a futures develop For policymakers: For

44 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 45 For policymakers

and communication: “art allows human What makes the work of futurists and strategic planning tools, many of For policymakers: beings to innovate. It takes you up a ground-breaking or innovative is not which have stemmed from methods level up from abstraction, so you make always the novelty of an approach, but pioneered by Royal Dutch Shell during the develop a futures novel connections”. By fabricating things more about “colliding different worlds 1970s oil crisis. and using visualisations that people can together”. It is therefore unsurprising With scenario planning, for example, mindset touch, feel and see helps to open up new that we found no singular entry point or there are over two dozen very different conversations about preferred futures and career trajectory for our interviewees tools for creating and exploring n this chapter we turn our focus to futures we want to avoid. It offers a set of whose backgrounds ranged from alternative possible futures. It typically those working in our private, public ingredients “like playdoh” that reflect the marine biologists, to technologists, follows a process of identifying the and third sector organisations and “malleability or plasticity of futures”, that designers, physicists and philosophers. core issue(s) and relevant timeframe, unpack the methods and mindset challenge entrenched ideas and accepted Many we interviewed talked about how Irequired to effectively draw on and highlighting key trends and drivers of norms. having a range of futures and foresight change and agreeing the two issues of utilise strategic futures and foresight. methodologies supplemented their One interviewee asserts that “if we greatest uncertainty. These then form the We explore five areas of value that existing set of policy tools and strategy acknowledge the fact that the future is two axes of a 2x2 framework, and each long-term thinking and foresight can mental models. Unconstrained to only not about the future per se, but about of the four quadrants becomes a scenario bring for executives, strategists, policy- foresight methods, they recognise the the present, we have to acknowledge which is populated with stories to bring and decision-makers - in fact anyone need for this work to be in service to the relevance of every discipline”. This it to life. Indicators are identified which concerned with the success and long- something bigger, and thereby reach argument is taken one step further by a may offer signals that one of the scenarios term health of your organisation: outside the field to utilise design, strategy, further interviewee who said, “futures is is emerging, and strategic responses are communications, influencing and other 1 Work across disciplines a mosaic; it is all other disciplines!”, and assessed. The point of such a process approaches. Few, to be fair, only did 2 Draw on a range of methods by another, “futures is by its nature a remains not in its predictive power, as futures and foresight work, and most 3 Develop a futures literacy and fluency trans-disciplinary field. It always involves we have previously seen, but in the new recognised the danger of it being seen engaging with a range of other fields mind space and thinking that it takes 4 Identify power dynamics as an isolated discipline rather than a and perspectives, and this is among its participants to. 5 Surface signals of systems change complementary one. greatest and most distinctive strengths”. For those pursuing a more To this end, the more diverse a futures Following basic scientific rules of research, transformational paradigm, there is project team in terms of lived experience the field’s core basis of understanding is growing popularity in combining foresight and background as well as disciplinary Work across disciplines rooted in empirical knowledge produced and more experimental methods. This interest, the better on all fronts. Diversity in all other disciplines and human approach not only enables greater Futures as a discipline sits nomadically and divergent thinking provide greater cultural knowledge.76 Describing the adaptability to an increasingly complex within and across the fields of economists, challenge to otherwise unquestioned futures field as post-disciplinary serves operating environment but also engineers, sociologists, philosophers, assumptions on how the world works. here as a provocation. Kwamou Eva enables practitioners to create deeper geographers, historians and technologists, This in turn opens new possibilities of Feukeu (UNESCO) asserts that the connections with potential futures. Again, to name but a few. It adds value to the uncovering useful and unusual insights way futures is structured as a discipline their applications are strengthened by work of those variously labelled as - “somebody’s weak signal is somebody 74 or field of studies limits its accessibility the breath of fields and disciplines that polymaths, boundary spanners, problem else’s driving force”.77 solvers or systems conveners;75 those and reinforces hierarchies in knowledge are introduced and by the diversity of whose specialism is, in part, about making acquisition even though “anticipation stakeholders included along the way. is done by literally everyone”. Wendy Draw on a range of unusual and unexpected connections. In operational and planning settings, Schultz describes complexity science These are the generalists who operate methods a futures framing woven in with and systems thinking as sister disciplines across disciplines and draw on methods research, analysis, economic modelling growing in parallel to the futures field, Over the years, the approaches and and insights from them all. and a quantitative evidence base was asking the same ultimate questions methods in the toolkits of futures and regarded by many interviewees as a This is borne out by many of those around the nature of change, time and foresight practitioners have grown and pragmatic or a more ‘sellable’ approach we interviewed who often described awareness. with it, the acceptance of the field across themselves as multi-disciplinary and business, governments, thinktanks, civil than those designed to create radical eschewed categorisation. They cited the 73 Sharpe, B. (2013) Op cit. p. 97. society and philanthropic organisations. shifts in thinking in isolation. The UK’s growing interest in, say, art and design in 74 Williams, P. (2002), The Competent Boundary Spanner. Public Some practitioners stand behind more Government Office for Science (GOS) foresight work. Whilst design was seen Administration, 80: 103-124. doi:10.1111/1467-9299.0 0296 traditional forecasting, scenario building Futures Toolkit (Appendix E) for to add a level of pragmatism, art was seen 75 The RSA are part-sponsoring the forthcoming work Systems Convening policymakers and analysts includes classic to strengthen participation, imagination Handbook by Bev and Etienne Trayner. More information on systems conveners here www.wenger-trayner.com/systems-convening. 76 Kuosa, T. (2010) Evolution of futures studies. Futures 43. 327 – 336. 77 Interview with anonymous foresight expert.

46 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 47 For policymakers

Figure 5: Schultz’s jigsaw methods inventory

techniques born from the Shell traditions alongside some more emerging methods. These methods centre around gathering intelligence about the future, exploring dynamics of change, describing potential futures and developing and testing strategy. Operating settings that have much more transformational intent have given rise to a spectrum of creative approaches that can be augmented to suit their context. The work of Wendy Schultz is helpful in its breath, application and theoretical underpinning (see Figure 5), and seminal texts in this area include Robert B Fowles’ Handbook of Futures Research,78 Wendell Bell’s seminal Foundations of Futures Studies (Vols 1 and 2),79 and the Millennium Project’s Futures Research Methodology (Version 3).80 Over time, images of the future have often been divisible into the ‘possible, plausible, probable and preferable’, with ‘plausibility’ often emerging as a primary operating assumption for scenario planning. Schultz challenges this framing, arguing that for futurists, plausibility is a maladaptive concept as it doesn’t provide a bold or radical enough basis to consider deep structural change. We illustrate some of the challenges with the futures cone in Box 9. Schultz therefore advocates for the consideration of what she describes as “crazy futures” and has developed the Manoa scenario building method to maximise these differences, consider alternative futures and explore emerging issues. In her Jigsaw inventory of methods (see Figure 5), Schultz outlines a wide selection of methods that consider alternative futures, but also impacts of change, awareness of change, preferred futures and strategy and change management. 78 Fowles, J. (ed.) (1978) Handbook of Futures Research. Westport: Greenwood. 79 Bell, W. (1997) The Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era: Values, Objectivity and the Good Society. Abingdon: Routledge. 80 Glenn, J.C. and Gordon, T. J. (2009) Futures Research Methodology - Version 3.0. Washington D.C.: The Millennium Project. 48 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 49 For policymakers

Box 9: Futures Cone Box 10: Pathways for transformation The futures cone is an iconic representation of possible futures, setting out what is preferred in a The framing below from Bill Sharpe illustrates how different categories of futures methods particular context, together with what is possible, plausible and probable: 81 (forecasts, scenarios, pathways and roadmaps) can be shown to correspond to the twin variables of (a) whether the methods enhance agency, and (b) their relationship to uncertainty about the future.82

“Four domains indicate the relative strengths of different tools and approaches. For example, scenarios are generally most useful when the future is highly uncertain, but often on their own have limited capacity to identify strategies for achieving different futures. Roadmaps tend to be most useful in circumstances where there is greater certainty, where they provide clearer directions for change. New pathways approaches are emerging, which aim to enhance agency in situations of high uncertainty. The arrows indicate that some scenario approaches, depending on how they are applied, also can work well in the high uncertainty and high agency domain, and that many existing pathways approaches are aligned more closely with roadmaps.” However, there are some fundamental challenges raised in respect of the futures cone and the way it seems to over-simplify concepts. Whilst this is in some ways necessary for it to have communicative power, it hides some deficiencies, such as: Develop a futures literacy Contrast the difference, however, between anticipating the future and • Our futures don’t all start from a singular time and space and fluency anticipating emergence of the future. This is not mere semantics, for they are • Who defines the future? Futures literacy is a capability that different ideas of “the form the future • Whose preferences are shaping the future? allows people to understand the world takes in the present”.84 If we anticipate • How to bring multiple perspectives together? around them and the role that the the future, we are doing so with a specific future plays in this. It requires a range • The future isn’t ours to colonise from the present goal or end state in mind - ‘retire at of tools to imagine. Futures fluency is • The visual is seen as too linear yet things don’t evolve in neat cones: no scope for shocks or age 60’, say, or ‘restrict rises in global the wide acquaintance with, and ability crises reshaping the cone(s). temperatures to 2 degrees by 2040’. to sensemake a diverse array of existing The future becomes a planned objective images of the futures as a foundation to that those vested in it, or motivated by imagining and anticipating original images it, attempt to achieve. If we anticipate of the future. A person who is futures emergence, we seek instead to make literate has the necessary skills and sense of, and change, the present. We imagination to introduce the concept of remain open to the emergence inherent the future, which by definition does not in complex systems and, rather than yet exist, into the present.83 As we have seen, we all do this to varying degrees in 82 Sharpe, B., Hodgson, A., Leicester, G., Lyon, A., and Fazey, I. (2016). our own lives. Three horizons: A pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and 81 Voros, J. (2017) Big History and anticipation: Using Big History as a Society, 21(2), [47]. doi.org/10.5751/ES-08388-210247. framework for global foresight. In: R. Poli (ed.) Handbook of anticipation: 83 Miller, R. (ed.) (2018) Transforming the future: Anticipation in the 21st Theoretical and applied aspects of the use of future in decision making. century. Abingdon: Routledge. New York: Springer International. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-31737-3_95-1 84 Ibid, p. 2.

50 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 51 For policymakers

trying to control them, work with them to understanding the future offers a Such an effort towards inclusivity and this approach, critical theorists have to make sense of the present. As a result, challenge to that central premise of diversity of perspective inevitably requires attempted to emphasise the constant we do not try to structure the future policymaking. Anticipation-for-emergence those convening the work to cede some interplay between past, present and because we are no longer constrained by (AfE) illustrates the point previously power and control over the process. future90. As Roman Krznaric91describes, probability or desirability. made that the technocratic assumption Without this transparency it can be “we have colonised the future. We underpinning policymaking – that almost difficult to counter potential charges of treat the future like a distant colonial These distinctions have important any problem can be solved through the paternal approaches to foresight or the outpost devoid of people, where we implications for policymakers. Anticipating application of sufficient knowledge – is a “colonisation of our imaginations”88. An can freely dump ecological degradation, the future is the dominant mode of false one. Indeed, AfE offers policymakers inclusive effort serves both to improve technological risk and nuclear waste, and thought that people use in day-to-day a valuable alternative to this paradigm. the outcomes of exercises and to increase which we can plunder as we please… The life. We draw comfort from the certainty Firstly, they can make the shift to an the popular legitimacy of any policy tragedy is that the unborn generations this provides however illusionary its emergent approach to the future; not emerging from the foresight initiative. of tomorrow can do nothing about this nature. Yet it remains a powerful force seeking to control it but dealing with colonialist pillaging of their futures”. shaping the way that we relate the future Truly participatory foresight must complexity as it emerges. Secondly, they with human agency, because we like to therefore go beyond inclusion and Pupul Bisht has built upon this through can engage in a programme designed think that if we do a particular set of challenge these inherent power dynamics. her ongoing work to decolonise foresight. at improving people’s future literacy. activities in the present they will lead to a In turn, some of the power dynamics She has done so by developing the first Adopting such a capability-based approach particular set of outcomes in the future. at play are difficult to surface and as a non-Western foresight method. Based requires the relinquishing of power by Strategic plans are based on this thinking. result can be less clearly understood. In on the storytelling tradition of Kaavad policymakers and trusting that people By centring goals in our formulations order for foresight exercises to avoid from Rajasthan, it incorporates multiple know their own contexts better than of the future, we are “colonising the reproducing the power relations of the dimensions, temporalities and narratives anyone else. The long-term potential of future with today’s idea of tomorrow”.85 present, they must do more than merely within a single exercise.92 It is through this is huge and necessarily unknowable. We see organisational vision or mission include non-expert voices and recognise innovative work such as this, and in statements setting out this future in Futures literacy therefore involves both that those from the future can’t, of engagement with indigenous wisdom and today’s corporate language, but it can only how we think about the future (an course, be physically present. traditions, that foresight practice can ever be shaped by today’s context and ontological perspective) and how we start to open out again. Though many practitioners stressed that thinking. create knowledge about the future (an they made their exercises as inclusive as epistemological perspective).87 Riel Miller It is this challenge that anticipating possible, very few mentioned that they argues that how we think about the future Surface signals of emergence seeks to address. To make included non-experts in the formulation - the ontological - is ultimately crucial, sense of, and engage with, emerging of the exercises themselves. They systems change given the future’s non-existence. It is this complexity we need a different mindset remained in the language of policymakers challenge that places futures work at the The strongest tools in supporting policy and approach. Working with spontaneity rather than those who they would heart of the human condition, as explored development are ones that can cope and improvisation and seeking continuous affect. This remains a barrier to truly under the complexity of public policy in the opening chapter. learning are at the heart of this if we are participatory exercises. The rebalancing environments, providing structure in to make sense of emerging complexity. of power relations will be difficult but more rigorous and systematic ways. For Miller, this is crucial “in becoming Identify power dynamics necessary to realise foresight’s full We have seen the emergence of able to embrace complexity rather potential. experimental methods of data gathering than just lamenting it as some cursed A crucial challenge to strategic foresight Other practitioners are challenging the and analysis that leverages big data to and inescapable source of ‘wicked relates to the idea of legitimate futures. potential coloniality of the discipline, support enquiries. Whilst they may offer problems’”.86 The UNESCO Futures It asks the questions ‘whose future is exploring the concept of ‘colonising mechanisms and processes for surfacing Literacy Laboratory, headed by Miller, it?’ and ‘who has the power to decide the future’. They argue that foresight is early signals of change, they remain of is currently testing the hypothesis that about that future?’ ‘Who runs the rooted in the colonial mentality in as limited in their value in complex systems. anticipating emergence makes it easier to exercises, who is involved, and who isn’t?’ much as it seeks to describe, control understand novelty and thus invent and There was a widespread recognition of and conquer the future. As explored 88 Term used by Kwamou Eva Feukeu during interview. innovate. the importance and value of ensuring foresight processes are co-designed to be by British author and futurist Ziauddin 89 Sardar, Z (1993) Colonizing the future: the ‘other’ dimension of The implications of this on policymaking inclusive, particularly in government and Sardar, “futures studies is increasingly futures studies. Futures 25(2), 179 – 187. doi.org/10.1016/0016- are clear. Policymaking generally operates becoming an instrument for the 3287(93)90163-N. on issues of wider societal importance. 90 Hideg, E. (2002) Implications of two new paradigms for futures studies. on the basis of identifying problems and marginalisation of non-Western cultures Futures, 34(3), 283-294. 89 seeking to resolve them. Recognising from the future” . By problematising 91 Krznaric, R (2020) Op cit. [Kindle Edition]. loc. 159. that other modes of anticipation 85 Ibid. p. 21 86 Ibid, p. 22. 92 Bisht, P. (2017) Decolonizing Futures: Exploring Storytelling as a exist and could be more conducive Tool for Inclusion in Foresight. [pdf]. Available at: www.core.ac.uk/ 87 Ibid. reader/154171898 [Accessed 25 July 2020].

52 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 53 For policymakers

Box 11: Three horizons Systems complexity can be revealed by frameworks such as the three horizons model, which illustrates the idea that three time horizons are always present in the here and now.97 The Traditional methods such as forecasting present’, wherein a core challenge is to prevailing mindset, represented by Horizon 1, is the domain of the manager. existing resources, or ‘super’ forecasting extrapolate past identify those emerging elements of the structures and incentives largely enable the systems of horizon one to maintain their hegemony. data to make predictions in the future, longer-term, visionary ‘third horizon’. However, there also exist trends and innovations that are starting to disrupt the dominance of usually done through trend analysis Horizon 1. The Horizons Foresight Method designed of quantitative data sets. A challenge by Peter Padbury and associates from for policymakers, though, is that when Policy Horizons Canada integrates more working in complex systems, “the last well-known horizon scanning methods thing that happened is almostnever to detect weak signals of change, whilst informative about what’s coming next”.93 also harnessing our natural mental Backcasting is also used as a strategic capacities to model the future. This is planning tool. It starts by defining what Padbury calls “the inner game of desired outcomes in the future and foresight” - working with people’s mental working backward to decide on an models which comprise incomplete and implementation plan that will help to sometimes wrong representations of achieve those outcomes. We have already reality. touched on some of the challenges with Padbury describes the importance of these methods. There are far too many tapping into and surfacing the often- variables to control for and assumptions well-honed mental models that policy of direct causality leave these predictive analysts and leaders use, in order to test tools vulnerable to error, particularly underlying assumptions that shape their if the goal is to anticipate and manage decisions.96 This is done by mapping risk. Indeed, most futurists and foresight systems and visualising how they can practitioners we spoke to warned Also present, and more subtly hidden within the prevailing system, are those seeds of the future evolve under different conditions and against any claims that the approaches that are starting to emerge. They are what will ultimately form the infrastructure of Horizon 3, but with different drivers for change. It is the and methods in the many toolkits had for now they remain largely hidden from sight, or seen as too far-fetched to be of concern. The emphasis on sharing individual mental anything resembling predictive power. domain of the visionary, Horizon 3 will eventually be the new Horizon 1. models in constructing a collective Sidecasting, a method developed by understanding of a system that makes The domain of the entrepreneur, the emergence of Horizon 2 represents a more immediate Dave Snowden, seeks to address these this method unique, offering a means for challenge to the ‘business as usual’ of Horizon 1. It is the entrepreneur who facilitates the challenges. It is built on complexity policy and decision-makers to feel better transition between Horizon 1 and 3. So many governmental initiatives are small scale and disruptive theory and allows dominant and minority prepared in dealing with dynamic changes Horizon 2 innovations, yet their failure to spread is often due to the ability of Horizon 1 to patterns to be identified through a multi- within different policy contexts. ‘capture’ them through its ‘immune response’ to change. experiential, mass engagement software We might, in simple terms, think of the car being powered by first the internal combustion engine, tool called SenseMaker.94 This software then the hybrid and the electric engine. collects and analyses data in real time and allows us to understand the present The relevance of this model for policymakers and others is as a mechanism of understanding that and the possible directions the present is different time horizons are already operating in the present, and the forces that interact between capable of shifting. One of its strengths is them, making change a tectonic process. It is important to recognise this should we need to negate in its ability to map out different patterns the potential criticism that futures work could, at worst, offer scenarios or ideas without any spatially and, in turn, allows interventions practical account of how those futures might emerge. to be altered and adapted appropriate to the context. One of the strengths of using methods such as the Three Horizons framework is that it asks participants from across 93 Flack, J. and Mitchell, M. (2020) Uncertain Times. Aeon magazine. the system in question to recognise [online]. Available at: www.aeon.co/amp/essays/complex-systems- science-allows-us-to-see-new-paths-forward [Accessed 15 October three mindsets in play at any one point 2020]. 95 of time. This is the idea that there 94 For more information, see www.sensemaker.cognitive-edge.com. are ‘pockets of the future visible in the 95 Sharpe, B. (2013) Op cit. 96 Padbury, P. (2020). An Overview of the Horizons Foresight Method: Using the “Inner Game” of Foresight to Build System-Based Scenarios. 97 Sharpe, B. (2013) Op cit. World Futures Review, 12(2), 249-258.

54 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 55 For policymakers

For policymakers: develop a ‘whose future is it?’ and ‘who has “One of the things nearing extinction futures mindset the power to decide about that future?’ Is it policymakers alone? “The challenge we all face Without transparency of process, it is the art of longing. As in, wanting is how to maintain the benefits can be difficult to counter charges of of breadth, diverse experience, paternalism or the colonisation of our something you cannot immediately interdisciplinary thinking, and imaginations. delayed concentration in a world have. If anything positive is to come that increasingly incentivises, even demands, hyperspecialisation.” Recommendations for from the situation the world collectedly David Epstein policymakers finds itself in, it is my great hope Core take-aways for • Look at issues of legitimacy in more detail, including the relationship of that speed, instant gratification, and policymakers futures and foresight with other forms of public engagement and over stimulation are swapped out for • Paradoxes. Policymakers, in deliberation. Examine, in particular, all contexts, have a number of the differences in how societies longing, imagination and relational paradoxes to navigate in order to and cultures think about time and bring value from futures and foresight the long-term, what lessons can be approaches, including the short- shared, and how this can support connection. For a child or teenager to termism of the political or product the long-term response to the short- life cycles and the potential long-term term pressures of responding sit thoughtfully and ponder what is to implications of their decisions. A to Covid-19. short-term mindset can also convert come, to hope for or envision something • Require every government or over-ride long-term thinking department, public even around obviously long-term sector organisation, and those amazing, to dream of a place or a products or initiatives, such as built organisations delivering services with environment projects that have 99 public funding, to embed foresight future” lifespans of decades and therefore thinking into its work, including impacts and implications for decades. through the publication of a Future Brian Transeau (BT) • Competencies. Futures as Generations Impact Assessment a discipline and foresight as a alongside any significant policy competency are inherently multi- or funding change. Continue to disciplinary and support longer- develop futures and foresight as core term, holistic, and systemic thinking. competency for public policymakers. Systems thinking is the backbone of • Design and test a new Futures Citizen futures thinking - it is why futures module, ultimately to form a new thinking must be multidisciplinary. The further-education qualification, as well fields of systems science and futures be a foundation part of every degree studies emerged side by side in the course. It could cover the basics of early to mid-20th century and, indeed, foresight alongside insights from a had some of the same founding range of multi-disciplinary subjects thinkers.98 It is complementary to, such as systems thinking, complexity, and a core skillset of, many people design and innovation, strategy, who are seeking change, whether decision-making, economics, choice as policymakers, decision-makers, and bias, and so on. Make available as activists, advisors and/or consultants. a MOOC once developed and tested. Many generalists or polymaths count This will start to seed and mainstream these methods in their repertoire. efforts at making foresight more • Legitimacy. A crucial challenge accessible and culturally acceptable. relates to the idea of legitimate For society: For culture a futures develop futures which asks the questions 98 See for example the work of Kenneth Boulding. 56 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 57 For society

to life by creating something more They subsequently translated these their futures projects, alongside design, For society: salient, tangible and textural. Artefacts into scenarios and then curated an art and systems thinking. that enable participants to feel, hear and exhibition of artefacts from the future In a similar vein, weaving storytelling, develop a futures smell speaks to the notion that, in part, to represent these scenarios, before narratives and anecdotes in participatory what we think and do is a product of our returning to participants to consult futures and foresight, whilst not a new culture environment. with them on how their images of the trend, is growing in use across contexts. future had been brought to life. They Such artefacts are not only reserved for They can be used, for example, as an n this chapter we identify and argue that the potential for Experiential museums and general public intrigue, but entry point into reframing scenarios, explore the value of long-term Ethnographic Futures is in allowing augmentations of potential realities have perhaps as something that resonates or thinking in a social and community parties to track evolving images of the also served to influence policy decisions. alters a person’s thinking in some way. context. This is an area of interest future over time, thereby supporting Ithat is likely to be amplified as we emerge Anab Jain for example created a ‘pollution Story telling can present a way in for social foresight through participation machine’ exhibited in the Future Energy people to engage with content that might from Covid-19 with - in many countries and community deliberation. It is Lab commissioned by the United Arab otherwise be hard to understand, be - a renewed recognition of the role and perhaps no surprise then that the Emirates.101 The noxious mixture of gases disengaging or discouraging. Particularly value of community in the quality of our emerging field of ‘ethnofutures’ has that simulated 2034 predicted air quality with diverse groups of participants lives. We identify and explore a number its roots in anthropology, pioneered in the UAE was presented to, and inhaled bringing different experiences and of means of recognising and realising this by anthropologist and ethnographer by, ministers as part of the exhibition. expertise, and where common ground value: Robert Textor,103 who could be said to In turn, this experience was thought to is difficult to establish, storytelling can have founded it as a subdiscipline within 1 Make future challenges salient be a contributing factor in prompting be used to create a more neutral space futures studies in the late 1980s. It is 2 Recognise different perspectives government officials to invest more without losing meaning to flatten the the fourth core domain used by the UK heavily in renewable energy. playing field.104 3 Engage citizens in participatory government’s Policy Lab in the design of practice Ethnographic Experiential Futures, 4 Challenge short-term incentives pioneered by Stuart Candy and Kelly 5 Think like a system, act like an Kornet, draws both from experiential Case study 4 entrepreneur futures (interactive and tangible experiences) and ethnographic futures United Arab Emirates: The (research into people’s perceptions Museum of the Future and personal images of the future). The Make future challenges result is a scaffolding for making people’s salient images of alternative futures (a) legible, “Designing our own future is the The Museum was first launched as and then (b) graspable, using whatever key to actualising our dreams and a series of temporary accelerator Futurists, foresight practitioners and means fit the context. The Field Guide to aspirations “ programmes on the role of technology researchers have used creative means to in fields such as climate change, food Ethnographic Experiential Futures lays out Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al connect people with otherwise hard-to- security and health care. It is expected the logic and principle design choices at 105 grapple future scenarios. The resulting Maktoum – Crown Prince of Dubai. each instruction.102 that themes would also be displayed at rise in the use of Experiential Futures the opening of the museum later this (EFX) practices helps people connect to Taking again the public policy issue of he Museum of the Future year in addition to other themes such possible futures through mixed media pollution and the environment as an is an initiative of the Dubai as the future of outer space, spirituality interventions. These include immersive example, Stuart Candy and Kelly Kornet Future Foundation committed and healthcare and wellness. performances, role-playing, simulation gathered research on the future hopes to exploring the future of Tscience, technology and innovation. It and the creation of ‘artefacts from the and fears of environmental activists future’. The use of games and trend cards living in heavily polluted industrial areas. hopes to focus on the ‘human story in creating deeper personal experiences of the future’ (not simply on the high- 99 Brian Transeau, ‘BT’, is a DJ, producer and composer. This quote is tech gadgets) through immersive through active experiences helps in this taken from his discussion of his 2020 trance album The Lost Art of endeavour. using the arts to lift data and Longing. Lake, E. (2020) BT Describes Each Song On His New Album. experiences and exhibitions. Trance Farm. [online]. Available at: www.trancefarm.com/2020/08/09/ words from something one dimensional 103 Textor, R. B. (1995) The ethnographic futures research method: An bt-describes-each-song-on-his-new-album [15 October 15, 2020]. into something tangible, “opens promising application to Thailand. Futures 27 (4), 461 - 471. doi.org/10.1016/0016- 100 Candy, S. and Kornet, K. (2019) Turning foresight inside out: An 3287(95)00011-K. new avenues for attempting complex introduction to ethnographic experiential futures. Journal of Futures 104 A common theme referenced by several interviewees. collective acts of empathy, conversation, Studies, 23(3), 3-22. 100 105 The National News (2020) Sheikh Hamdan tours Dubai’s Museum of and deliberation in the public sphere”. 101 Krznaric, R. (2020) Op cit. the Future. [online]. Available at: www.thenational.ae/uae/government/ The ambition is to bring possible futures 102 Candy, S. and Kornet, K. (2017) A field guide to ethnographic sheikh-hamdan-tours-dubai-s-museum-of-the-future-1.966392 experiential futures. Journal of Futures Studies. [Accessed 15 October 2020].

58 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 59 Charts

For society

Recognise different (hierarchy), because it’s the custom of the At their best, the tools and insights that increases the efficacy of the exercise group or society we belong to (solidarity), futurists have developed enable these by diluting any biases, helping produce perspectives or because we choose to for our own conflicting world views to be heard and a consensus, and offering insight in reasons (individual enterprise). As these accommodated. The central challenge There remains the unavoidable fact that how best to communicate the work are core human motivations, generally of such collaboration, as Adam Kahane we all think differently about the future. to the public. They concluded that the best way to solve problems and make defines it, is that “in order to make Much as we might say we recognise despite initial scepticism, every inclusive progress is to find ways of combining our way forward we must work with the importance of the long-term view, foresight exercise had satisfied those who them. others, including people we don’t agree the way this manifests in our personal commissioned it. with or like or trust, while in order to values and behaviours varies significantly These distinctions illuminate one of the In addition to producing better outcomes avoid treachery, we must not work with between us. In other words, it is crucial core challenges we face when we engage in foresight exercises, increased inclusion them”.108 to recognise that we all view abstract people in conversation about the future: augments the power of foresight as notions such as time in general, and the each will offer up a valid yet competing a tool for co-creating a shared idea future in particular, through different set of values and ideas about how to act. Engage citizens in of the future and helping participants lenses. We can best illustrate this by looking participatory practice recognise which shared principles are at the climate crisis, which remains the most important in the present. Several One of the ways we seek to understand As we explored in the discussion most pertinent example of the need practitioners stated the greatest value these differences in perspective at the on power dynamics, the inclusion of for long term thinking and short term of foresight was in its ability to generate RSA is through a version of cultural ‘non-expert’109 citizen voices is widely action. Hierarchical actors tend to believe consensus in this manner. For example, theory, originally conceived by Mary recognised as crucial to successful we need strong global governance and the creation of the Milton Keynes (MK) Douglas and further developed by Michael outcomes in foresight initiatives.110 planning; the solidaristic and community Thompson and others.106 It teaches that Futures 2050 involved contacts with Participatory foresight is practice that 112 This helped there are three core human motivations perspective is that the world is about to 20,000 citizens in the area. seeks to achieve this by explicitly engaging create a shared vision of the long-term to act: belief in authority and hierarchy; come to an end unless we all radically the figure of the outsider and offering future which is now used to guide short- belief in relationships and solidarity; change our ways now, and individualists them the opportunity to question and medium-term policymaking in the and belief in individual aspiration and argue that even if climate change as a dominant discourses on the future.111 city. In this respect, foresight exercises enterprise. They are joined by a fourth; thesis is correct, the consequences will It can result in fewer blind spots as can operate as a form of deliberative fatalism, a form of inaction. In illustrative be “neither catastrophic nor uniformly 107 Finally the fatalists, of course, non-experts are often more willing to democracy, in which citizens are involved terms, we can characterise each of these negative”. will say there’s no point in acting: what challenge erroneous orthodoxies and/ in the policymaking process. The RSA three active motivations by a method of will be, will be. or previously held assumptions. Many has piloted many deliberative democracy organising and a role: foresight practitioners stressed that programmes and a fruitful line of All four perspectives offer up conflicting they sought to make their exercises as • Belief in authority and hierarchy is inquiry could be the expansion of this explanatations of climate change (see participatory as possible, acknowledging represented by the state and the more systematically alongside foresight Figure 6) and therefore the required that it leads to better outcomes and manger, with a focus on rules and exercises.113 policy response in the present. None increased engagement with target order is necessarily wrong, but by the same communities. • Belief in relationships and solidarity token none of them are by themselves is represented by civil society and completely right, either. The insight for However, there are barriers to the convenor, with a focus on values, those charged with curating conversations achieving this in practice. Creating a equality and norms and processes about the future is that truly participatory foresight exercise is both costly and time consuming, while • Belief in individual aspiration and there are not just structural and power those commissioning the work are enterprise is represented by the challenges to overcome, but also value- 108 Kahane, A. (2017) Op cit. p. 9. often reluctant to commit to this. One market and the entrepreneur, with a driven ones. 109 We are using the terms ‘expert’ and ‘non-expert’ in the sense it interviewee commented that a major is referred to in the literature – an expert being someone holding focus on incentives, opportunity and barrier to implementing participatory academic and/or professional qualifications and/or experience on a subject while a non-expert does not. However, we also hold that a freedom. 106 See Burbidge, I (2017) Altered States. RSA Journal, Volume CLXIII foresight in policymaking was fear on person taking part in a foresight exercise as a ‘non-expert’ may indeed No.5569, Issue 1 2017 Available at www.medium.com/rsa-journal/ In any given situation all three the part of policymakers, who often meet the RSA’s own definition of an expert as someone with lived outdated-public-services-must-empower-people-to-achieve-change- perspectives are present in a dynamic experience of an issue. 70d7c6a3f3f0 [Accessed 15 October 2020] and Taylor, M. (2016) have a desire for control. It is necessary balance. This goes right down to our Towards a fully engaged organization. [online]. Available at: www.thersa. to convince policymakers that the 110 Nikolova, B. (2014) The rise and promise of participatory foresight. Eur J Futures Res 2, 33. doi.org/10.1007/s40309-013-0033-2 daily motivations – why do we do things? org/blog/matthew-taylor/2016/01/towards-a-fully-engaged-organisation inclusion of non-expert voices actually We might act because we are told to [Accessed 15 October 2020]. 111 Ibid, p. 33. 107 Verweij, M (2006) The case for clumsiness. In: M. Verweij and M. 112 For more information, see www.mkfutures2050.com. Thompson (eds.) Clumsy solutions for a complex world: Governance, 113 See recent RSA work in this space here www.thersa.org/projects/ Politics and Plural Perceptions. London: Palgrave Macmillan. p. 15. deliberative-democracy

60 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 61 For society Case study 5 Singapore: conversations Figure 6: Culture theory: table illustrating the four perspectives on the future offered by culture theory for the future

Motivated by Community- Individually- Those who are… Fatalists authority motivated motivated not merely the almost upon us an irrelevant the continuation of See long-term as… continuation of the and the short-term concept, as is the the short-term. short-term. severely truncated. short term. fragile and becoming whatever See the future as… controllable. opportunity. inter-connected. it will be. CONVERSATIONS if we know what long-term there’s no point in sustainability we’ll all need to innovators will find acting now over Actions… looks like, we can work now to avoid solutions to any something you can make appropriate future challenges. future challenges. do little about. FOR THE interventions in the short term. doing well in the experts will find radical change is here and now is individuals are best Beliefs… solutions to any needed if there is the best guarantee left to the hand FUTURE future challenges. to be a future at all. for doing well later fate dealt them. on. The democratic potential of foresight align with prefigurative foresight which is focused on creating a desired vision of the future and utilising foresight as a tool to help realise it.114 Foresight exercises in this vein are participatory and are used to co-create shared values and principles and consider how these translate into the future that people aspire to. By bringing into being this collective vision of the future, not only can participants begin work to realise it, but these foresight exercises can reveal new insights about The Singapore Conversation offered an the present. opportunity for Singaporeans to come together There is high potential for using foresight in this manner in policymaking. It can and ask: ‘where do we want to go as a country increase the awareness of the hopes, desires and fears of citizens, helping and as a people?’ policymakers be more responsive to these, as well as increasing buy-in through higher rates of inclusion in the democratic process. This reinforces the sense that 114 We borrow the term ‘prefigurative’ from the concept of prefigurative politics, which seeks to reconfigure social relations by creating small foresight holds the promise of being an communities embodying such values in the present, thereby prefiguring emancipatory practice rather than merely future social change. Cornish, F., Haaken, J., Moskovitz, L. and Jackson, a technocratic policymaking tool. S. (2016) Rethinking prefigurative politics: introduction to the special thematic section. Journal of Social and Political Psychology, 4 (1), 114- 127.

62 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight AA stitch stitch in in time? time? Realising Realising the the value value of of futures futures and and foresight foresight 63 Singapore: conversations for the future

he Singapore Conversation was a yearlong national participatory foresight exercise undertaken Challenge short-term Ari Wallach elaborates, “a politician by the government of Singapore. who reduces the proportion of coal TInitiated in 2012 and completed in incentives energy on the grid will face the wrath 2013, according to officials, it was the of the coal lobby and the labour unions We tend to discount the future to levels opportunity for Singaporeans “come when campaigning for re-election. A that make such considerations invisible together to ask ‘where do we want to go CEO who seeks to implement zero- 115 in decisions and actions today. Through as a country and as a people?’” energy operations might hurt profits our research we have found that how we over the next handful of business cycles The initial phase of the project was think about and view the future is vitally and meet the vengeance of seething designed to be deliberately open and important to how we think about and act stockholders when quarterly earnings are emergent as officials were keen to in the present, and our present context is announced”.118 remove any implicit biases to ensure vitally important to how we think about that the public surfaced the issues the future. Underpinning all three areas Laszlo Zsolnai is clear that “decision- and concerns that were of paramount • Door to door One Singapore of the organisation, the policymaker and makers who strongly discount things in importance them. The feedback and Conversation Survey.116 the community is the recurring theme of space and time are interested neither summaries of the initial phase were incentives. As a result, more than 47,000 in the solution of long range ecological then used to inform the structure of the and human problems, nor in the global Singaporeans participated in the One It is not for nothing that Charlie Munger second phase where the dialogues were impacts of their activities on the natural Singapore Conversation. This foresight imports us to “never, ever, think about focused around specific issues and sectors environment and human communities. exercise generated twelve distinct something else when you should be such as jobs, healthcare, housing and Discounting the future impacts of present perspectives and identified five core thinking about the power of incentives.”117 education. generations is ethically indefensible aspirations from the people of Singapore: Our dominant incentive structures because it renders extremely low weight The central aim in the design was to Opportunities, Purpose, Assurance, Spirit militate against long-term thinking. to the interest of future generations”.119 ensure the highest level of participation and Trust. We are driven by shareholder returns, as possible. The dialogues and materials the next election, by promotions and It also created a critical feedback loop Into this debate comes the idea of were available in seven languages and bonuses and pensions, by consumption to policymaking whereby government social contract accounting, that we need technology was also used to enhance and reputation, and ultimately by the idea agencies implemented changes or mechanisms for fairly accounting for audience reach and access. that many things won’t impact us because identified ways in which the individual future impacts in our present operations we’ll be long gone: from that company, Members of the public were able to and the community can more actively (see Box 13). Indeed, many are in turn that community, and ultimately from this participate via multiple channels, namely: participate in the policymaking process. encouraging us to reconsider the notion life. How do we act as though we actually of the short-term, from calls to establish • Centrally organised and facilitated The outcomes of the exercise also fed have ‘skin in the game’, when incentives a ‘parliament for the unborn’ (See Box dialogues hosted by government into the government’s policy review generally mean we don’t? 13: Parliament for the unborn) that holds agencies process and provided a welcome pause to policymakers to account to a 1000-year Our predisposition towards short-term ‘reaffirm, refresh and recalibrate’ policy long musical composition playing without • Delegated dialogues hosted by various thinking is mirrored across our political directions. repeat in London’s only lighthouse (see third sector organisations such as and economic systems, thinking that Case study 6). Roman Krznaric, writing in welfare organisations, trade unions With such a bold ambition, the One prefers immediate fixes, regardless of the The Good Ancestor, set out six drivers of and special interest groups Singapore Conversation required potential for unintended consequences short-termism and six ways to think long • Online platforms and websites manpower from several government that make things worse over the (see Figure 2: Tug of war of time). agencies and more than 40 third sector long run. Short-term stakeholder organisations. It was highly resource returns are prioritised over long-term Perhaps the heart of the effort required intensive and time consuming. corporate sustainability, short-term to review and realign incentives is to find consumption is prioritised over longer- However, it empowered participants to ways that this work counters the former term environmental stewardship of become focused on a collective visioning and facilitates the latter. precious resources, the immediate process of the future of their country More than 47,000 challenge of global emissions and the and thus cultivated an intrinsic trust and climate emergency is deferred to future support in the work of policymakers. 117 Farnham Street (2017) The Power of Incentives: The Hidden Forces Singaporeans particpated generations with no idea of how to That Shape Behavior. [online]. Available at: www.fs.blog/2017/10/bias- incentives-reinforcement/ [Accessed 15 October 2020]. 115 Heng, S. K. (2012) Creating our future, through our national actually accommodate the costs of in the conversation conversation. 26 August. University Cultural Centre, Singapore. addressing it in the here-and-now. As 118 Wallach, A. (2013) Op cit. Available at: www.businesstimes.com.sg/bt_files/NDR_Speech_Heng_ 119 Zsolnai, L. (2010) Respect for future generations. [pdf]. Available at: Swee_Keat.pdf [Accessed 15 October 2020]. www.laszlo-zsolnai.net/sites/default/files/3/documents/Respect%20 116 For more information, see www.reach.gov.sg/read/our-sg-conversation. for%20Future%20Generations.pdf [Accessed 15 October 2020].

64 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 65 For society Case study 7 Wales: The Well-being of Future Generations Act Box 12: Parliament for the unborn Case study 6 The parliament for the unborn. No Longplayer matter how rich or smart the future generations are, they simply cannot fix Jem Finer, composer of Longplayer, says species extinctions, ocean acidification, that “while Longplayer is most often or melted permafrost. 120 The legitimacy described as a 1000 year-long musical of today’s decisions should be subject composition, the preoccupations that to scrutiny. In 2019, in Wales, the led to its conception were not of a world’s first Minister of Future musical nature; they concerned time, as Generations was appointed as a means it is experienced and as it is understood of institutionalising this type of scrutiny. from the perspectives of philosophy, Democracy for the future rests on a physics and cosmology. At extremes of third parliamentary house, with elected scale, time has always appeared to me citizens who will represent the interests as baffling, both in the transience of its of future generations on par with those passing on quantum mechanical levels representing the interest of our current and in the unfathomable expanses of ones. geological and cosmological time, in which a human lifetime is reduced to no more than a blip”. Box 13: Social contract accounting “A human lifetime is just a blip” Paul Barnett summarises the idea of social contract accounting as follows: n 2015, the Welsh Assembly requires that a report is prepared every “Valueism and social contract accounting passed the Well-being of five years in order to report on progress are practical management approaches Future Generations (Wales) of the goals and to give an assessment of Wales is underpinned by strong philosophies that Act, committing its sustainable improvements made by public bodies. It date back to the time of Aristotle. More Idevelopment ambitions within legislation. “provides practical advice, guidance and the only recently the approaches can be seen The act is about improving the social, tools for public bodies grappling with government reflected in the values and practices of economic, environmental and cultural making the aspirations set out in this the Quaker industrialists who created wellbeing of Wales and ensuring that ground-breaking law a reality for people to legislate great value and much wealth. And the the decisions taken today are not at in Wales”123. the expense of the future generations’ for the needs wealth they created produced shared Wales is the only government to legislate wellbeing.122 prosperity and social capital investments for the needs of future generations and of future in the form of model villages. Examples It outlines seven wellbeing goals which to embed delivery of UN Sustainable of value-led businesses are to be found public bodies must collectively achieve Development Goals. Other countries generations in the form of long-lived companies the and ‘sustainable development principle’ such as Canada, Portugal, Gibraltar and world over. Profits were the means to the or five ways of working that should be even the UK parliament are keen to adopt ends in all such companies, and the ends employed by public bodies to ensure similar legislation. were always the creation of real value. achieve that ambition. They are long-term, Valueism is an updated version of these prevention, integration, collaboration and ideas. It is values-led, human-centred involvement. and focused on creating widely shared lasting prosperity, or Aristotle’s idea of The Act created the post of the Future Eudemonia, ie human flourishing and Generation Commissioner who acts as wellbeing”.121 the ‘guardian for future generations’ and 122 For more information, see:: www.futuregenerations.wales/about-us/ 120 Johar, I. and Begovic, M. (2020) Op cit. promotes sustainable development. It also future-generations-act. 121 Barnett, P. (2019) Introducing valueism and social contract accounting. 123 Future Generation Commissioner for Wales (2020) The Future [online]. Available at: www.blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2019/03/28/ Generations Report 2020. [pdf]. Available at: www.futuregenerations. introducing-valueism-and-social-contract-accounting [Accessed 16 wales/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/FGC-Eng-Exec-Summary.pdf October 2020]. [Accessed 15 October 2020].

66 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 67 For society

Think like a system, act Laureates are “at least 22 times more As well as avoiding risk and paths that For society: develop a futures likely to partake as an amateur actor, lead to disaster or dystopia, it’s just culture like an entrepreneur dancer, magician, or other type of as important to consider different performer”.128 It should therefore be compelling narratives and preferred “Civilisations with long Societies face a myriad of complex social of little surprise that there is growing visons of the future that generate hope.129 ‘nows’ look after things better. In challenges. If we are to successfully do interest in the integration of sociological For this reason, we can understand those places you feel a very strong so, to make inroads on issues as diverse and anthropological techniques and why in equal measure, futures thinking but flexible structure which is as global migration, social justice, wealth research. has been described as ‘science’, but for built to absorb shocks and in fact distribution, food poverty - the list goes many it is also an ‘art’ and a ‘craft’.130 It is incorporate them”.131 on - we need people who are adept If we see change as including the therefore important to not only consider Brian Eno at navigating “a white water world - a evolution and potential resolution futures thinking as a technical skillset, but world of dynamic flows in which so much of societal challenges at some point also a mindset. Those with both are going of what we do and know is radically in the future, then we can see the Core take-aways for to be increasingly invaluable to society. contingent on the context at the moment value of futures and foresight to those They are the catalysts for change required society one is looking at it, or operating in it… seeking change. One of the strengths for society to gain the momentum needed one must… be constantly scanning, that anthropologists, sociologists and • Incentives. If we are not acting in probing, and finding ways to understand geographers in particular bring to this to shift cultures towards the long term. ways that enable our descendants to that context and its underlying forces, work is awareness of cultural, spatial thrive on the planet, we are colonising so that one can act in it, and with it, not and behavioural change as it relates their future. Yet it is impossible against it or outside of it”.124 to long-term societal evolution and to underestimate the impact that transformation. This is the art of thinking incentives have in driving short- In previous work the RSA has called those like a system, of seeing the bigger picture. termism. We need to find ways to able to navigate this complexity, seeking value the long run. change whilst simultaneously creating The complexities and intractable nature 125 . Because the way we stability, ‘systems entrepreneurs’. They of current challenges or imagined • Perspectives think about the future is a product are people who exhibit the skillset and future scenarios can constrain or of our values and belief systems, mindset needed to ‘think like a system even stymie our ability to think of, not everyone will view the future in and act like an entrepreneur’, to both see and act on, possible solutions, a form the same way nor give it the same the bigger picture in all its complexity of paralysis by analysis. Avoiding the importance. In thinking about the and yet to act decisively when and where direct causality and path dependency future, we are really challenging needed to effect change. And they do so often associated with policymaking is the stories we’ve been told about because they want to address some of the another core consideration. Taking a ourselves, our society and our place in most vexing, complex challenges society less prescriptive and more adaptive the world. faces. approach offers an antidote. It can help overcome information overload and • Movements. There are organisations The value that people with these enable policymakers, activists and those and people who are at the leading capabilities can bring to an organisation, seeking change to make more emergent edge of a growing movement to a community or a problem is often and responses at key points in time. This embed long-term thinking across intangible and difficult to assess. In turn, is the art of ‘acting like an entrepreneur’, all aspects of society, drawing upon those with this skillset and mindset anticipating future societal, public policy academia, the arts, business, music are difficult to fit into traditional or business challenges and interrogating and literature. Aligning foresight organisational hierarchies or community otherwise unchallenged assumptions for practice with wider mechanisms structures. They can often end up being the benefit of creating more adaptive, of deliberative democracy and seen as fringe, institutionally ‘homeless’, resilient systems. engagement is an important socially counter-cultural or simply a opportunity for the use of foresight. 126 maverick. 124 Pendleton-Jullian, A and Seeley Brown, J. (2018) Design Unbound, Volume 2: Ecologies of Change. Cambridge: MIT Press. p. 369. Yet they see the value and insight to be 129 Miller, R. (2018) Op cit. p. 300. 125 Hallgarten, J., Hannon, V. and Beresford, T. (2016) Op cit. gained by combining disciplines: “when 130 Leicester, G. (2004) Seven Prompts: A Report for the Scottish 126 See, for example, www.maverickwisdom.com/business-mavericks. Parliament. [pdf]. International Futures Forum. Available at www. you step into an intersection of fields, 127 Johansson, F. (2017) The Medici Effect: Breakthrough Insights at the internationalfuturesforum.com/projects.php?pid=11&dl=ocgzfglsyo disciplines or cultures, you can combine Intersection of Ideas, Concepts, and Cultures. Boston: Harvard Business [Accessed 15 October 2020]. existing concepts into a large number of Review Press. p. 6. 131 Brand, S. (2018) Pace Layering: How Complex Systems Learn and Keep extraordinary new ideas”.127 Compared 128 Epstein, D. (2019) Range: How generalists triumph in a specialised world. Learning. [online]. Available at: www.jods.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/issue3- brand/release/2 [Accessed 15 October 2020]. to other scientists, for example, Nobel New York: Macmillan. Kindle ed. loc 486.

68 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 69 For society

Recommendations for society • Design and run a citizens jury on the idea of establishing a third chamber alongside the House of Commons and the House of Lords, mandated with the primary function of representing the interests of future generations. Equip this chamber with the powers FORESIGHT: to fulfil their functions. Support this by reducing the voting age to 16, recognising that young people have longer remaining on the planet than their grandparents’ generation, and that they are old enough to have a say WE NEED at the ballot box. • Establish diverse and inclusive national and regional citizens’ assemblies on future generations to inform this work, supported by RSA Fellows with foresight expertise.132 TO THINK • Design some practical micro- experiments that help cement longer- term thinking in people’s everyday lives and social contexts. For example, what would it take to enable everyone LONGER- to have the option of taking mini- retirements for every decade of work? New mechanisms are needed that enable future generations to live a good life in a context significantly different to that enjoyed by previous TERM generations.

Note: these three recommendations relate Foresight approaches and techniques specifically to the UK context with which we are most familiar. We invite readers to can facilitate and support the kind of multi- imagine recommendations appropriate for their own society and culture. disciplinary working, critical thinking and radical action that are necessary to effect change.

132 There is an extant call for a National Citizens’ Assembly of the Future. See: www.petition.parliament.uk/petitions/321196 with more details here www.theunfinishedrevolution.net.

70 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitchA stitch in time? in time? Realising Realising the value the valueof futures of futures and foresight and foresight 71 Foresight

A foresight approach offers a way It turns out that looking at futures and Foresight: we forward.133 The role of future‐oriented foresight is not as straightforward as techniques is not to anticipate the finding and sharing good practice. At a need to think future as ‘it exactly will be’ but to set deeper level, thinking about the future the stage for a learning process which taps into some of the deepest notions longer-term fosters adaptation and prepares for of what it is to be human and how we future challenges. The RSA’s exploration see our place in the unfolding universe. of the future of work is one such Our reading and conversations have 134 he rate of change in the world example. Understanding and working taken us beyond foresight as a discipline, and the degree of uncertainty with these nuances is what the RSA touching on philosophy and semiotics, has amplified immeasurably calls the necessity of ‘living change’; the anthropology and incentives, mysticism over recent times. We find our idea that we can neither mandate nor and decision-science, art and loss. As Toperating systems suspended, decoupled prescribe a solution to be implemented, James Baldwin said, “any real change or in flux. New modes and methods of but need mechanisms for proceeding implies the breakup of the world as one communication and connection have into the unknown that is, after all, the has already known it, the loss of all that 135 allowed ideas to travel fast, creating greatest characteristic of the future. gave one a sense of identity, the end of 136 new openings for shifts in societal values This philosophy, change as an art and safety”. We must attend to this work as well as behaviour. Disruptive forces science, underpins our call to ‘think like a appropriately for, as we touched on in the today are multifaceted and ambiguous system, act like an entrepreneur’. Those section on different perspectives, people with root causes that are difficult to bringing this philosophy to life offer a will approach change, and feel loss, in discern, interacting in ways that are pragmatic entrepreneurialism, bringing a different ways. wide skillset and a flexible mindset to the impossible to predict, leaving us with As an institution of over 260 year’s challenge of our time. We argue in this few counterfactuals and less than perfect standing, the RSA is well-placed to report that futures and foresight should data. As a result, society faces a range contemplate longevity and the long be a fundamental part of this work. of complex challenges: Covid-19, racial term, to see the wide arc of time and to injustice, political polarisation, global Foresight approaches and techniques can advocate for a longer-term perspective. warming, refugee crisis to name but a few. facilitate and support the kind of multi- We recognise we are building on a legacy At the heart of work to address these disciplinary working, critical thinking and that, if projected into the future, would lies a dichotomy. On the one hand are radical action that are necessary to effect take us to 02285. Our ultimate hope, those who believe we can define and change. We recognise the value of these therefore, is that this paper in some way pursue a vision for the future that sees approaches for those trying to make the stimulates more people to think more the relevant issue addressed. On the world a better place, to effect systems deeply about the longer term. Perhaps other hand are those who suggest that change, to open up our imaginations to then we might bring new approaches to such a definition is illusionary. Complex the possibilities of what could be. Yet the disruptive times we are currently scenarios continuously shift over time and there remains a shadow side to foresight. living through, with Covid-19 upending as a result of our interventions, so we It can be easy to dismiss as irrelevant to our daily patterns of life and prefiguring should define instead the direction not the present and just another distraction. challenges to come. Of which none loom the destination. We should understand There is a danger it is seen as ‘just larger, nor will dwarf Covid-19, more than the present sufficient to identity where another tool’ to be added to all the other the climate crisis. Will our descendants there is the possibility of change, and that models that strategists, management look back in 02285 and see that 2020 was this work enables a journey of discovery. consultants and CEOs advocate. the precursor to a positive shift in the Yet without a vision and the sense of way we come together and organise as a society? Was the adoption of a longer- purpose it helps galvanise, the desire to 133 Vecchiato, R., Favato, G., di Maddaloni, F. and Do, H. (2019) Foresight, act in the present can be undermined and cognition, and long‐term performance: Insights from the automotive term perspective, stimulated by futures the imaginative leaps it can help foster industry and opportunities for future research. Futures & Foresight and foresight methods and mindsets, at remain unrealised. Science 2:e25. doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.25 https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.25. the heart of this shift? 134 Dellot, B., Wallace-Stephens, F. and Mason, R. (2019) The four futures of work: coping with uncertainty in an age of radical technologies. RSA. We certainly hope so. [pdf]. Available at: www.thersa.org/reports/the-four-futures-of-work- coping-with-uncertainty-in-an-age-of-radical-technologies [Accessed 15 October 2020]. 136 Baldwin, J. (1991) Nobody Knows My Name: More Notes Of A Native Son. London: Penguin. 135 RSA (2020) Our approach to change. [online]. Available at: www.thersa. org/approach [Accessed 15 October 2020].

72 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 73 • What methods exist, when are they • What other sectors/industries use Dr Geci Karuri-Sebina, South African Appendices best used, and in which contexts? foresight methodologies and what Node at The Millennium Project can we learn from them, eg conflict Graham Leicester, International Emerging practice resolution, social innovation, energy Futures Forum A. Scope of research sector? We will look at how foresight Dr Hannah Knox, UCL We are cognisant that futures and • What is the potential to supplement methodologies are developing and what foresight methodologies with insights/ J Paul Neeley, Neeley Worldwide foresight is an increasingly well- opportunities new technologies (big established and respected field and knowledge/approaches from other Jeanette Kwek, Centre for Strategic data, AI, etc) and new social processes disciplines, eg arts, humanities? Futures discipline across a number of industries (crowdsourcing, new social movements, and sectors, not least of which etc) present for innovation in foresight Professor Jeff Gold, York St John University government, the energy, insurance and future planning work. We will look B. Method and interviewees and tech sectors. By supplementing at the industries that have always put Josef Hargrave, Arup a literature review with a range of This short research piece included an significant resource into foresight such Julian Cox, Greater Manchester interviews covering policymakers, initial literature review to surface the key as the big oil companies and the banking Combined Authority practitioners, RSA Fellows and others we sector and, latterly, the big internet/tech terms, applications and practice around have sought answers to a core research companies such as Google, Apple, Tesla, the field and discipline of futures and Kwamou Eva Feukeu, UNESCO question, supplemented with a number of etc. foresight. We scanned examples of policy Dr Laurent Bontoux, EU Policy Lab lines of enquiry: and practice and sought interviews that Mikko Dufva, Sitra Key research questions include: addressed the core ideas that started to “What benefits do foresight methods emerge from this review. Cllr Peter Marland, Milton Keynes offer to support policymakers, to support • What is innovative in foresight Council practitioners and to stimulate public methodologies? We then undertook a number of Peter Padbury, Policy Horizons Canada dialogue on key issues”? • What is the scope to develop more interviews designed to gain insights from innovative and rigorous approaches? leading figures in the field and those Pupul Bisht, Decolonising Futures Initiative Current practice • What does the future of this field look applying futures and foresight methods in like, how is it developing? their work. We also identified a number Dr Riel Miller, UNESCO of RSA Fellows working in this space or We sought to scope the kinds of foresight Stephen Bennett, Policy Lab, Cabinet using foresight methods as part of their work currently informing policymakers Office and gauging the demand among Opportunities for change work, whether as consultants, academics Dr Stuart Candy, School of policymakers for foresight given what A crucial aspect of this initial work or practitioners. International Futures/Carnegie Mellon we already know about the increasingly will be to explore the opportunities Our thanks and appreciation are given to School of Design complex policymaking environment we for impact that are arising within the all those who gave up their time to talk Stellenbosch University face. How are foresight methodologies field, for example by combining insights to us: Tanja Hichert, helping us to address known future trends from different fields, or by new and Dr Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures such as an ageing population, loneliness, emerging methodologies. What, in Dr Andrea Cooper, Connected Places Yvette Montero Salvatico, Kedge AI, Work 4.0 and the environmental other words, is the future direction of Catapult crisis, for example? foresight methodologies? What are the Dr Andrew Staines, Norfolk County opportunities for change that the field Key research questions include: Council itself embraces and how can it seize them? We are particularly keen to assess Dr David Atkinson, York St John • Where do we see good practice in University this area? the use of these methodologies in a systems-thinking context. Dave Snowden, Cognitive Edge • What is the state of the art in applying foresight methodologies to Key research questions: Erica Bol, European Commission policymaking? Eshanthi Ranasinghe, Omidyar • What can policymakers do to better • How do foresight methodologies Network understand the driving forces affecting complement existing policymaking the future development of their policy Fiona Lickorish, Foresight consultant tools? area?

74 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 75 Appendices

C. How the RSA has found D. Glossary of terms warning signs of change in the policy Save the Children Strategic Foresight value in foresight and strategy environment by examining toolkit potential threats, opportunities and Core terminology is defined below. More resourcecentre.savethechildren.net/ The RSA has had a long-storied developments. detailed information can be found in the node/16327/pdf/strategic_foresight_ relationship with futures and foresight Toolkits and guides in Appendix E. are what we toolkit_online.pdf thinking dating back to the 19th century. Images of the future Foresight is the capacity to think imagine the future to be based on existing Since its foundation the RSA used cash Stanford University Playbook for Strategic strategically about the future. trends, assumptions or our own preferred prizes called premiums to tackle social Foresight and Innovation desires. and economic problems. However, by Futures studies known also as futures app.box.com/s/ the 1840s, the Society was in trouble, as research is an academic discipline about Scenario planning is a i1q85p829xm1ez0xl0r9mjp2ana2ov9r the period of the Premium ended. The alternative futures which seeks to futures methodology that uses stories Society decided to focus on bridging the understand the underlying structures which describe alternative ways the Sitra FutureMakers Tool-box widening gaps between new specialisms that gives rise to future events, trends or external environment might develop www.sitra.fi/en/projects/toolbox-for- and hoped that the integration of different behaviour. in the future for medium to long-term people-shaping-the-future/ disciplines would lead to the development strategic planning. Strategic foresight is an organised of new technologies. UK Government Office for Science – The and systematic process to engage with Systems thinking is a holistic approach Futures Toolkit It was not until the 20th century – uncertainty regarding the future. to analysis that focuses on the way that a specifically during the 1950s, that the system’s constituent parts interrelate and assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/ Special Activities Committee in the “The ability to create and sustain a how systems work over time and within government/uploads/system/uploads/ Society sought to look at future trends. variety of high quality forward views and the context of larger systems. attachment_data/file/674209/futures- But this resulted in few outcomes. to apply the emerging insights in organ- toolkit-edition-1.pdf isationally useful ways; for example, to Then in the 1960s the Society hosted detect adverse conditions, guide policy, UNDP Global Centre for Public Service a series of three conferences – ‘The shape strategy; to explore new markets, E. Toolkits and guides Excellence Foresight Manual countryside in 1970’ which sought to products and service”.137 European Political Strategy – Strategic www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/ convene conservationists from different Foresight Primer librarypage/capacity-building/global- walks of life to come together to look Richard Slaughter centre-for-public-service-excellence/ ahead into the future of the British cor.europa.eu/Documents/Migrated/ ForesightManual2018.html countryside. These conferences led to Futures literacy is a capability devel- Events/EPSC_strategic_foresight_primer. the emergence of environmentalism in oped within UNESCO, that offers insights pdf NESTA Futures Explainer the UK and covered topics such as toxic on how we approach unforeseeable European Commission Competence media.nesta.org.uk/documents/ waste in rivers, agriculture and pollution. challenges by using the future to innovate the present. Centre on Foresight Nesta_FuturesExplainerPDF.pdf?_ Most recently, in 2018 in response to ga=2.4516851.1744272569.1582538685- ec.europa.eu/knowledge4policy/foresight_ the changing nature of work brought on Weak signals are indicators of a poten- 1864039281.1579186513 en by technology, the RSA’s Future Work tially emerging issue, that may become Centre used scenario planning to design significant in the future. A Field Guide for Ethnographic the Four Futures of Work. The foresight A trend is an emerging pattern of events Experiential Futures by Stuart Candy and exercise in this instance resulted in that suggest change. A driver is a current Kelly Kornet four distinctive scenarios for the UK or emerging trend that may have an futuryst.blogspot.com/2017/06/ labour market in 2035 and thus enabled impact on development of the policy or ethnographic-experiential-futures.html the research team to highlight critical strategy area of interest. challenges that may face workers and Policy Horizons Canada Foresight Training offer policy and practice interventions as A megatrend is a direction of Modules potential remedies. development over time that is large or global in scale which will significantly horizons.gc.ca/en/resources/ Earlier this year, the RSA explored how affect the future. Practical Foresight Guide, Chapter to reimagine the future of health and 3 – Methods by Dr Michael Jackson, social care from the lessons learnt in the Horizon scanning is the Chairman, Shaping Tomorrow wake of the Covid-19 global pandemic. systematic process of looking for early www.shapingtomorrow.com/media-

137 Slaughter, R. (1997) Op cit. centre/pf-ch03.pdf

76 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 77 Appendices

Appendix F. International Appendix G. Why we need to product of adaptation to the demands of “Becoming a good ancestor is a foresight institutions value the long-term all six time scales. That is why conflicting formidable task. Our chances of doing loyalties are deep in our nature. In order so will be determined by the outcome of A selection of institutions for further At the heart of our inquiry has emerged to survive, we have needed to be loyal to a struggle for the human mind currently information: the idea that not only should we look ourselves, to our families, to our tribes, taking place on a global scale between the to a long-term time horizon more to our cultures, to our species, to our opposing forces of short-term and long- systematically and more often, but that planet”. term thinking. The great silent majority of International foresight our best efforts to make the future salient future generations is rendered powerless Freeman Dyson138 institutions in the present can remain fundamentally and airbrushed out of our minds”. flawed, for reasons we have explored. Roman Krznaric142 Association Internationale Futuribles Any future we might think about, when “Thinking long-term is psychological. It’s (1960) we stretch our thinking far enough, is what you learn right at the beginning. It’s World Future Society (1966) not going to be inhabited by us but by not just an intellectual, ‘Oh gee, I’m going “Climate change should be of concern our descendants. And they have no voice to be a long-term thinker. I’m going to to all who care about intergenerational World Futures Studies Federation (1973) in the present. This is the danger of our read three books and understand how to justice – which should be every one Association of Professional Futurists colonialising their future. do it.’ It’s something that goes deep back of us. If we fail to act as we should, into your past”. future generations will be powerless to It doesn’t have to be this way, of course. RAND Corporation undo the inexorable consequences of Many people and cultures - especially Esther Dyson139 our failure. Hence our profound moral Stanford Research Institute (SRI those not from a Western cultural responsibility to them. Failure to make International) perspective - have always thought and “The human family doesn’t inhabit Earth hard choices now will rob our children acted generationally in order that they Scanning the Horizon (hosted by the simultaneously. People have lived here and grandchildren of their rightful future”. remain living in equilibrium with our International Civil Society Centre) before us, some are living now and some planet. Others have advocated for a Christiana Figueres143 will live after us. But those who come longer-term perspective across all aspects after us are also our fellow human beings. Academic centres of society. Their voices are multiple and We must do to them as we would have “Samoset knew that land came from the varied. Pontifical Gregorian University, Italy wished that they would have done to Great Spirit, was as endless as the sky, Turku School of Economics, Finland There is not the scope to include in the us if it was they who had inhabited this and belonged to no man”. body of this report the different quotes planet before us. We must realise that the Dee Brown144 Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary we have come across in our research. principle of reciprocity also has a vertical University of Houston-Clear Lake, Texas However, we felt it was important to find dimension: you shall do to the next a way to include them, and so we have generation what you wished the previous Hawaii Research Centre for Futures added this appendix. generation had done to you. It’s as simple Studies as that. You shall love your neighbour as

you love yourself. This must obviously Long-term thinking “The destiny of our species is shaped include your neighbour generation. It has by the imperatives of survival on six to include absolutely everyone who will Long Now Foundation distinct time scales. On a time scale of live on the Earth after us”. years, the unit is the individual. On a 138 Dyson, F. (1992) From Eros to Gaia. New York: Pantheon. p. 241. Longpath Labs Jostein Gaarder140 time scale of decades, the unit is the 139 The Long Now Foundation (2020) Long-term Perspectives During a Pandemic. [online]. Available at: www.medium.com/the-long-now- family. On the time scale of centuries, foundation/long-term-perspectives-during-a-pandemic-cf99335cf897 the unit is the tribe or nation. On a time “Not many of us in modern western [Accessed 15 October 2020]. scale of millennia the unit is the culture. culture know our ancestors very far back. 140 Gaarder, J.. (2020) The Ethics of the Future. The Huffington Post. On a timescale of tens of millennia, the We are isolated in time from both the [online]. Available at: www.huffpost.com/entry/ethics-future_b_8576266 [Accessed 15 October 2020]. unit is the species. On the time scale of past and the future. If we can’t imagine 141 Washburn, C. (2018) Harvesting the Evolutionary Gifts of Our eons, the unit is the whole web of life back seven generations, how do we think Ancestors. Deep Times. [online]. Available at: www.journal. on our planet. Every human being is the ahead seven generations? We must be workthatreconnects.org/2018/07/20/harvesting-the-evolutionary-gifts- able imagine those seven generations of-our-ancestors [Accessed 15 October 2020]. ahead of us so that we can be the 142 Krznaric, R (2020) Op cit. [Kindle Edition]. loc. 120. ancestors they need us to be”. 143 Figueres, C. and Rivett-Carnac, T. (2020) Op cit. p. 17 144 Brown, D. (1970) Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee: An Indian History Constance Washburn141 of the American West [Kindle Edition (2012)]. loc. 155.

78 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 79 Appendices

“Our cosmic horizons are far more We are the RSA. The royal society for arts, extensive than those of our forbears. And we’ve entered the anthropocene era manufactures and commerce. We’re committed to a when one species, ours, can determine future that works for everyone. A future where we can the entire planet’s fate. The collective all participate in its creation. ‘footprint’ of humans on the Earth is heavier than ever; today’s decisions The RSA has been at the forefront of significant social on environment and energy resonate centuries ahead and will determine the impact for over 250 years. Our proven change process, fate of the entire biosphere, and how rigorous research, innovative ideas platforms and future generations live”. diverse global community of over 30,000 problem Martin Rees145 solvers, deliver solutions for lasting change.

“Thus moral responsibility demands that We invite you to be part of this change. Join our we take into consideration the welfare community. Together, we’ll of those who, without being consulted, unite people and ideas to resolve the challenges of our will later be affected by what we are doing now. Without our choosing it, time. responsibility becomes our lot due to the sheer extent of the power we exercise Find out more at thersa.org daily”. Hans Jonas146

8 John Adam Street London WC2N 6EZ +44 (0)20 7930 5115

Registered as a charity in England and Wales 145 Rees, M. (2018) Deep Time. [online]. Available at: www.medium.com/ no. 212424 the-long-now-foundation/deep-time-30e03071ae8a [Accessed 15 October 2020]. 146 Jonas, H. (1996) Toward an Ontological Grounding of an Ethics for the Copyright © RSA Future. In: H. Jonas (ed.) Mortality and Morality. A Search for the Good 2020 After Auschwitz. Evanston: Northwestern University Press. pp. 99-112. www.thersa.org

ISBN 978-1-911532-51-4 80 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 81