Funded by A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight Adanna Shallowe, Aleksandra Szymczyk, Ella Firebrace, Ian Burbidge and James Morrison A stitch in time Realising the value of futures and foresight Adanna Shallowe Aleksandra Szymczyk Ella Firebrace Ian Burbidge James Morrison October 2020 OCTOBER 2020 Contents Acknowledgments Contents Page no. We thank our interviewees, listed in About the authors Appendix B, who unfailingly gave up i. About us 2 their time and energy to answer our We all have an interest in foresight often naive questions around the topic and futures and how change happens. and openly shared with us the benefit of Adanna Shallowe has a background in ii. Foreword by Prof Chris Fox 4 their expertise, insights and hindsights, international relations and development often introducing us to others who and is responsible for harnessing iii. Notes on reading this report 6 offered expertise in different aspects global insights in the RSA’s research. of the field. We appreciate you all for Aleksandra Szymczyk is a research iv. Foreword by Matthew Taylor 7 engaging so openly with us. Many of our associate at Manchester Metropolitan interviewees were also RSA Fellows, University’s Policy Evaluation and 1. Introduction 8 confirming to us what a rich body of Research Unit with a background in thought and experience there is in the social anthropology. Ella Firebrace 2. Executive summary 11 Fellowship. In the interests of reciprocity has a background in international we will endeavour to support this group migration and works across a range to connect and convene as appropriate, of RSA programmes including Cities 3. Hindsight: we have always thought about the future 18 and make such a commitment in the of Learning. Ian Burbidge has a recommendations at the end of the report. background in local public service 4. For organisations: develop futures competencies 30 and behavioural science and leads We further thank those who read early the development of the RSA’s Living 5. For policymakers: develop a futures mindset 45 copies of the draft, including Jeanette Change approach. James Morrison Kwek Kwamou Eva Feukeu, Dr Wendy has a background in social and cultural 6. For society: develop a futures culture 57 Schultz, Mikko Dufva, Billie Carn, and our anthropology and works across a range colleagues Professor Chris Fox, Dr Joanna of projects at the RSA. Choukeir, Anthony Painter and Matthew 7. Foresight: we need to think longer-term 71 Taylor. We also thank our colleagues Amanda Ibbett and Benny Souto for their 8. Appendices 74 assistance in producing this report. A. Scope of research 74 B. Method and interviewees 75 C. How the RSA has found value in foresight 76 D. Glossary of terms 76 E. Toolkits and guides 77 F. International foresight institutions 78 G. Why we need to value the long-term 78 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 1 About us (fixed spread) i About us e are the RSA. The We define our ambitions as: royal society for arts, REALISING manufactures and commerce. We’re Our vision committedW to a future that works for everyone. A future where we can all A world where everyone participate in its creation. is able to participate in The RSA has been at the forefront of creating a better future. significant social impact for over 250 years. Our proven change process, rigorous research, innovative ideas Our purpose platforms and diverse global community of over 30,000 problem solvers, deliver Uniting people and ideas solutions for lasting change. to resolve the challenges We invite you to be part of this change. Join our community. Together, we’ll of our time. unite people and ideas to resolve the challenges of our time. Find out more at thersa.org We are A global community of CHANGE proactive problem solvers. About the Policy About MetroPolis Evaluation Research etroPolis is a thinktank to develop effective public Unit (PERU) services, cities and a caring society. Based at Manchester MMetropolitan University it is a unique stablished in 2007, the Policy We are the RSA. The royal society Evaluation and Research Unit partnership of researchers, policymakers at Manchester Metropolitan and practitioners who share thinking to for arts, manufactures and commerce. University is a multi-disciplinary tackle key challenges. Eteam of evaluators, economists, We unite people and ideas to resolve sociologists and criminologists. We specialise in evaluating policies, the challenges of our time. programmes and projects and advising national and local policymakers on the development of evidence-informed policy. We work in the UK and Europe across sectors that include criminal justice, education, social innovation and incomes, work and poverty. 2 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 3 ii Foreword f the events of 2020 have proved create innovative solutions to meet their The events of 2020 have demonstrated the value of anything it’s surely how valuable needs be they better financial services or foresight is when making policy, but more effective health services. foresight in policy. But also how hard it is to predict also how hard it is to predict the This report describes futures thinking Ifuture. We have known for a while that, as a people-driven, multi-disciplinary the future. Above all, it shown us how complex and as a society we face some big challenges: project. Technology has a role to play, take your pick from a list that includes but so do the arts and humanities. It fast-moving our world is. If ever there was a need for climate change, the Fourth Industrial recognises that futures thinking is an Revolution, an ageing population, inherently creative discipline which asks innovation in policymaking it is now. urbanisation, loneliness and the rise of fundamental questions about what it is populism. The Covid-19 pandemic has to be human and is necessarily values- Professor Chris Fox, Director of PERU and co- brought these into stark relief, while also driven. Taking this perspective leads presenting us with new ones. Above all the authors of this report to argue for though it has shown us how complex and lead of MetroPolis at Manchester Metropolitan the importance of encouraging all of us fast-moving our world is. If ever there to make the future a greater priority was a need for innovation in policymaking University and embed long-term thinking into our it is now. everyday lives. They make far-reaching A combination of big policy challenge and and radical recommendations for policy- ever-increasing complexity is one of the and decision-makers and organisations factors that makes greater investment in across society. We at Manchester futures thinking an attractive idea. One Metropolitan University are looking strand of thinking on better policymaking forward to continuing to work with the has turned to technologies such as RSA on bringing them to fruition. machine learning, AI and the potential Professor Chris Fox of big data. Will these technologies help policymakers understand complex Director of the Policy Evaluation systems and model potential future Research Unit and co-lead scenarios, in which policy options can be of MetroPolis at Manchester tested? They certainly have much to offer, Metropolitan University but when we proposed this project to the RSA our hunch was that technology was not the whole story. We know from our wider work on innovation in policymaking that new models of innovation have started to break down the distinction between technologically-driven and people-driven innovation. Models of ‘open innovation’ and ‘social innovation’ for example, invert traditional models of technologically-led innovation and suggest that innovation is driven by the creation of ‘ecosystems’ made up of diverse actors who align their goals and collaborate to co-create ‘shared value’. Instead of the citizen being seen as a recipient of innovation, in these models citizens and in particular, the people who use services, are the drivers of innovation and work with government and services to co- 4 A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight A stitch in time? Realising the value of futures and foresight 5 Limitations The point here is not simply that thinking Notes on reading Foreword by about the future is more important for We are aware that we are writing some decisions than others, but that the this report from the perspective of a Western, Matthew Taylor relationship between short term and industrialised, educated, rich and long goals differs. In some cases, they utures studies is an academic democratic society, and therefore we stitch in time is an expansive, point in the same direction (so futures field and discipline with graduate have cultural blind spots to some of timely and practical report. thinking doesn’t add anything practical degree programs, peer- the concepts and ideas we explore in The team at RSA and MMU to our insights) in some cases they may reviewed journals, international this research. We recognise that whilst have mapped out important conflict, while in others the question of Facademic and professional membership debatesA and made thoughtful proposals. the society in which we live has largely whether or not they align is debatable or organisations and a rich body of lost touch with generational wisdom The report includes a helpful executive inherently uncertain. literature. Where we have directly drawn and insight, this is not the case for summary and an introduction from from such resources, we reference them a vast number of other cultures for Professor Chris Fox, which speaks to Given human cognitive frailties and in the footnotes.