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Tunisia Systematic Country Diagnostic

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Tunisia Systematic Country Diagnostic 102298 Tunisia Systematic Country Diagnostic June 2015 MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Tunisia Systematic Country Diagnostic (P151647) June 2015 Middle East and North Africa Cover and text pages designed by The Word Express, Inc. Cover photo by Stefano Gentile / GettyImages.com Contents Acknowledgements . ix Abbreviations . xi Executive Summary . xiii Context . xiii Tunisia Systematic Country Diagnostic . xvii Sustainability of a Long Term Development Trajectory . xxiii Conclusions . xxvii Introduction . .xxix 1. Context . .1 2. Framing the Issues . .5 Emerging Challenges . .11 3. Conceptual Framework . .15 4. Growth Development and Diagnostic . .19 5. Poverty and Shared Prosperity Diagnostic . .27 Profile of the Poor and the Bottom 40 Percent . 29. Employment and the Poor . .33 Unequal Opportunities . .34 6. Key Constraints to Growth and Inclusion . .37 Business Climate . .37 Weak Contestability and Competition . .37 Political Connection, Economic Performance, and Unequal Opportunity . .38 The egulatoryR Environment for Private Sector Investment . .39 Trade and Integration in the Global Economy Held Back by Weak Regulatory Framework and Business Environment . .39 iii iv TUNISIA: SYSTEMATIC COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC Financing Growth . .43 The oleR of Employment and Social Policy . .45 The Challenge of obJ Creation . .46 Jobs Dynamics at Firms Level . .47 Access to Jobs . .47 Social Protection, Equity, and Resilience . .51 Governance and Institutions . .55 Human Capital . .62 Quality of Education and Skills Mismatch . .62 Health Services . .64 Infrastructure, Connectivity, and Trade Logistics . .67 7. Sustainability . .75 Political and Social Stability . .75 Macro and Fiscal Sustainability . .78 Fiscal Sustainability . .78 Macroeconomic Sustainability . .79 Environmental Sustainability . .80 Disaster Risk Management . .82 8. Criteria/Filters to Identify Reform Priorities . .85 Results of Prioritization . .87 Overarching Constraints . .87 Specific Constraints/areas of Focus . .89 9. Key Opportunities to Accelerate Growth and Boost Shared Prosperity . .93 Restoring Sound Debt Sustainability and Maintaining Macro and Financial Stability is a Prerequisite for Any Type of Reform . .93 Strengthen the Link between Growth, Welfare, and Citizens Participation . .94 Sustain Reforms of the Business Environment to Prevent Elite Capture in the Future . .95 Develop a National Financial Sector Strategy to Increase Economic Opportunities . 96. Identify and Invest in Sectors Where Tunisia Holds a Strategic Advantage . .96 Build on the Policy Dialogue on Important Reforms to Improve Equity and Efficiency of Social Assistance Programs and Strengthen Resilience . .97 Decentralization as a Gateway to Increase and Equalize Opportunities . .98 Annex I: Matrix of Identified Constraints and Opportunities . .99 Identified Constraints . .99 Ranking of Constraints in Specific Areas . .105 Identified Opportunities . .107 Environmental Sustainability . .117 Annex II: Existing Analytical Work and Key Knowledge Gaps . .119 Selected Studies . .119 Key Knowledge Gaps . .121 Annex III: Supplemental Poverty Charts . .123 v Annex IV: Sector-Focused Diagnostic for Employment Creation . .125 Sector Note on Tourism in Tunisia . .126 Sector Note on Agribusiness in Tunisia . .127 Sector Note on Healthcare in Tunisia . .129 Annex V: A Historical Perspective on the Political Economy of Reforms . .131 Post-independence Until 1987 . 131. Ben Ali Era (1987–2011) . 132. The Constitution, a ewN Social Dialogue and Political Trends . .133 Annex VI: The Social Progress Initiative . 137. List of Figures Figure 1: Growth Trickled Down to the Bottom 40 Percent .......................... 3 Figure 2: Well-Being Worsens as GDP Rises pre-2011 .............................. 4 Figure 3: Tunisians’ Perspectives on Business Environment Immediately Before the Revolution..................................................... 4 Figure 4: Tunisia’s Economic Development Did Not Take Off Compared to its Peers . 6 Figure 5: Social Progress Does Not Necessarily Follow from Economic Development: SPI Vis-à-vis GDP Per Capita........................................ 10 Figure 6: Pillars to Achieve Higher and Inclusive Growth and sustainable Shared Prosperity ......................................... 17 Figure 7: Real GDP and Real GDP Per Capita Growth . 19 Figure 8: Private Consumption as the Main Driver of Growth ....................... 20 Figure 9: Low TFP Contribution to Growth Suggests Misallocation of Capital .......... 20 Figure 10: GDP Per Capita (constant 2005 US$).................................. 21 Figure 11: Macroeconomic Indicators (2000–2010 Average): Tunisia and Comparison Group Percentage Point Difference from the Group.... 21 Figure 12: M anufacturing, Value Added (% of GDP)............................... 22 Figure 13: Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt Service (% of GNI) (average) . 22 Figure 14: Deposit and Credit Growth, Liquidity Refinancing ........................ 23 Figure 15: FDI by Sector 2006–2012 ........................................... 23 Figure 16: FDI Remain Concentrated in the Energy Sector, given the High Restrictiveness on Investing Elsewhere...................... 24 Figure 17: Trends in Exports of Goods and Services (nominal) (1990=100) .............. 24 Figure 18: T rade Balance by Product Group (in Million TND) . 25 Figure 19: Poverty and Extreme Poverty Trends for 2010–12 . 28 Figure 20: W elfare Indicators in Tunisia 2005–2010................................ 28 Figure 21: Growth Incidence Curve for Household Per Capita Total Consumption 2005–10 ................................... 29 Figure 22: P overty Headcount Rates by Education of the Household Head .............. 30 Figure 23: S hare of the Poor, by Education of the Household Head .................... 30 Figure 24: Poverty Headcount Rates by Education of the Household Head .............. 30 Figure 25: Poverty Headcount Rates by Sector of Employment . 30 Figure 26: Access to Services by Poverty Status (in Percent) .......................... 31 Figure 27: Distribution of the Bottom 40 Percent Across Tunisian Regions .............. 32 vi TUNISIA: SYSTEMATIC COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC Figure 28: Distribution of the Poor Across Tunisian Regions . 32 Figure 29: Distribution of Labor Force Status of Household Head by Group of Consumption Distribution................................... 32 Figure 30: Distribution of Highest Educational Level Attained by Household Head by Group of Consumption Distribution .................. 32 Figure 31: Labor Force by Consumption Decile – Age 15+ .......................... 33 Figure 32: Active Labor Force by Consumption Deciles ............................. 33 Figure 33: Bottom 40% Share by Region . 34 Figure 34: Bottom 40% Share of Employed by Region.............................. 34 Figure 35: Bottom 40% Share of Inactive by Region ............................... 34 Figure 36: Bottom 40% Share of Unemployed by Region . 34 Figure 37: Coverage, Human Opportunities Index, and Shapley Decomposition for Education, Water, and Sanitation Opportunities in Tunisia, 2010 .......... 35 Figure 38: Number of Sectors with at Least One SOE in Tunisia Compared to OECD, Non-OECD and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Countries .............. 38 Figure 39: Losses Due to Investment Climate Weaknesses (in Percent of Sales) . ..
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