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A Gradually Improving Balance Sheet, "Accumulate"

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A Gradually Improving Balance Sheet, 股 票 研 [Table_Title] David Feng 冯廷帅 Company Report: CNBM (03323 HK) 究 (852) 2509 2113 Equity Research 公司报告： 中国建材 (03323 HK) [email protected] 20 June 2019 [Table_Summary] A Gradually Improving Balance Sheet, "Accumulate" 资产负债表逐渐改善，“收集” 公 Regional differentiation has become more explicit. Conditions of the [Table_Rank] 司 national cement market have been similar to the corresponding period in Rating: Accumulate 2018, while south central and northeast China was disappointing. Pressure 报 may persist in July and August due to off-season effect, but overall balance of 评级： 收集 告 supply and demand is expected to be maintained by production curtailment. Company Report Deleveraging through perpetual capital instruments, debt-for-equity swaps and strong operating cash flows. It should be achievable for CNBM 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$7.18 to lower its net gearing ratio to below 100% by 2020. Impairment of goodwill is still one concern but the risk is lowering. The Company will reorganize its Share price 股价: HK$6.740 operating entities of glass fiber, engineering and cement businesses. 告 1Q19 bottom line surged by 176.1% YoY on large fair value gains. 证 Stock performance 报 Striping off the fair value gains, the Company's adjusted profit before tax 券 increased by 43.2% YoY. Total revenue reached RMB42,878 million, 股价表现 究 [Table_QuotePic] amounting to 18.8% of our 2019F revenue. 研 5% 研 We expect CNBM's revenue to increase YoY by 4.3%/ 1.7%/ 1.5% in 0% 究 2019/ 2020/ 2021, respectively. Higher materials cost due to the -5% 券 -10% 报 abolishment of low grade cement may push up unit cost in 2020 and 2021. -15% 证 Negative effect of extraordinary losses is expected to be smaller in 告 -20% Equity Research Report 2019-2021 compared with 2018. EPS forecasts for 2019/ 2020/ 2021 are -25% RMB1.324/ RMB1.221/ RMB1.205, respectively. -30% -35% "Accumulate" with a TP of HK$7.18. Fair value derived from our DCF -40% model is HK$7.91 per share. We believe that the Company's valuation will [Tab -45% recover as deleveraging and restructuring proceeds. Our TP represents 4.8x/ -50% Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 le_I 5.2x/ 5.2x 2019-2021 PE ratio and 0.7x 2019 PB ratio. CNBM-H HSI Index nfo1 区域分化更为显著。全国水泥市场状况与 2018 年同期相近，然而中南及东北地区令人失 水] 望。七月和八月或将因淡季效应而持续承压，但整体的供需平衡预计将借助限产得以维持。 Materials Sector 利用永久资本工具、债转股和强劲的经营现金流降低杠杆。中国建材将净杠杆率在 2020 泥 Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 年前降至 100%以下的目标应当可以实现。商誉减值仍然是个问题，但风险正在下降。公 建 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 司将对其玻纤、工程和水泥业务的经营实体进行重组。 材 Abs. % 7.5 10.0 (24.6) 绝对变动 2019 年第一季度净利润因大额公允价值收益而激增 176.1%。剔除公允价值收益后，公司 % 行 Rel. % to HS Index 的经调整税前利润同比增 43.2%。总收入达 428.78 亿元人民币，相当于我们 2019 年预测 6.6 14.2 (20.3) 业 相对恒指变动 % 收入的 18.8%。 Avg. Share price(HK$) 6.1 6.4 6.5 平均股价（港元） 我们预计中国建材 2019/ 2020/ 2021 年的收入将分别同比增长 4.3%/ 1.7%/ 1.5%。低标 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 水泥淘汰后，较高的材料成本或将推升 2020 年和 2021 年的单位成本。与 2018 年相比， 非经常性损失的负面影响预计将会较小。2019/ 2020/ 2021 年的每股盈利预测分别为 1.324/ 1.221/ 1.205 元人民币。 Cement Construction and “收集”，目标价为 7.18 港元。我们的 DCF 模型给出的公允价值为每股 7.91 港元。我们 [Tabl 认为公司的估值将会随着去杠杆和重组的进行而得到修复。我们的目标价对应 4.8 倍/ 5.2 倍/ 5.2 倍的 2019-2021 年市盈率和 0.7 倍的 2019 年市净率。 e_Inf Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE o2] 年结Profit] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2017A 184,121 4,939 0.586 96.0 9.6 7.620 0.7 0.100 1.8 8.0 中 2018A 218,955 8,067 0.956 63.1 6.2 8.561 0.7 0.180 3.0 11.8 国 2019F 228,340 11,171 1.324 38.5 4.5 9.709 0.6 0.250 4.2 14.5 建 2020F 232,282 10,295 1.221 (7.8) 4.9 10.681 0.6 0.230 3.9 12.0 材 2021F 235,716 10,167 1.205 (1.3) 4.9 11.659 0.5 0.230 3.9 10.8 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 8,434.8 Major shareholder 大股东 CNBM Group 41.6% CNBM (03323 HK) [Table_BaseData] Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 56,850.6 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 58.4 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 44,703.2 FY19 Net gearing (%) FY19 净负债/股东资金 (%) 106.7 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 9.420 / 4.960 FY19 Est. NAV (HK$) FY19 每股估值（港元） 7.9 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 11 [Table_PageHeader] CNBM (03323 HK) MARKET ENVIRONMENT ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Regional differentiation has become more explicit. As the peak season came in April, performance in east China and northwest China lead the market, while that of south central China and northeast China was disappointing. Cement output in all regions except south central China recorded YoY growth and national cement output in 1-5M19 was up by 4.3% YoY to 833 million tons. The cement market in southern regions has started to suffer from the hot and rainy weather in June, while overall June 2019 conditions have been similar to the corresponding period in 2018 in terms of price, inventory, shipment, and grinder utilization. We expect demand from property and infrastructure to remain stable as no big surprise has been found so far. Pressure may 20 persist in July and August due to off-season effect, but so long as production curtailment is implemented as planned, the overall balance of supply and demand is expected to be maintained. Figure-1: Cement Price by Region Figure-2: Cement Output by Region RMB/t million ton 600 350 40% 550 300 500 30% 450 250 400 200 20% 350 150 10% 300 ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 100 250 0% 200 50 16 17 18 16 17 18 17 18 19 16 18 19 17 17 19 18 16 17 18 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 -10% Oct Apr Oct Oct Apr Apr Jun Jun Jun Jun Feb Feb Feb Aug Dec Aug Dec Aug Dec N NE E SC SW NW N NE E SC SW NW 1-5M16 1-5M17 1-5M18 1-5M19 19YoY Source: Digital Cement, Guotai Junan International. Source: Digital Cement, Guotai Junan International. Figure-3: National Average Cement Price Figure-4: National Average Clinker Price RMB/t RMB/t 500 450 450 400 400 350 350 300 (03323 HK) 300 250 250 200 中国建材 200 150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun] 2 Julr a AugM t Seph g Octi R Nov_ e Decl b a T [ CNBM 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Digital Cement, Guotai Junan International. Source: SCI99, Guotai Junan International. Figure-5: National Average Cement Inventory Level Figure-6: National Average Clinker Inventory Level 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Digital Cement, Guotai Junan International. Source: SCI99, Guotai Junan International. Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 11 [Table_PageHeader] CNBM (03323 HK) Figure-7: National Average Cement Shipment Ratio Figure-8: National Average Grinder Utilization Rate ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 100% 80% 70% 80% 60% 60% 50% 40% 40% June 2019 30% 20% 20 20% 10% 0% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Digital Cement, Guotai Junan International. Source: SCI99, Guotai Junan International. Figure-9: National Fixed Asset Investment Growth Figure-10: National Property Development Area Growth 40% 60% 30% 40% 20% ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 20% 0% 10% -20% 0% -40% -10% -60% 13 15 16 17 14 18 14 15 16 18 19 17 13 15 16 17 19 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 14 18 14 15 16 17 18 19 13 14 15 17 18 13 14 15 17 18 16 16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Aug Nov Aug Aug Nov Nov Aug Nov Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Nov Aug Nov Sep May May May May May May May May May May May May May May Property C&I Transportation Infrastructure Land Purchased GFA Started GFA Sold Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Ministry of Transport of the PRC, Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Guotai Junan International. Note: C&I = Construction & Installation. KEY UPDATES (03323 HK) Deleveraging through perpetual capital instruments, debt-for-equity swaps and strong operating cash flows. As at 31 March 2019, the total principal amount of China National Building Materials' ("CNBM" or the "Company") perpetual capital instruments on hand was RMB22.3 billion. The weighted average interest rate of these perpetual capital instruments was 5.03%, 中国建材 which was only less than 1 ppt higher than the effective interest rates of the Company's banks loans and bonds.
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