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China Cement Sector China / Hong Kong Industry Focus U740 China Cement Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 2 Apr 2020 Sales to pick up from an exceptionally low season HSI: 23,086 • Recovering cement sales activities nationwide; shipment rate is up while inventory level is down U740 • Seasonal price correction signals stabilisation ANALYST Duncan CHAN +852 36684178 [email protected] • Resilient demand to drive cement consumption rebound in next few quarters • Top picks are China Resources Cement (1313 HK) and Recommendation & valuation Anhui Conch (914 HK) T arget Mk t PE Cement giants delivered good results. Three major cement Price Price Cap 21F companies’ net earnings uptrend continued in 2019. China Resources Cement (CR Cement) benefitted from resilient cement Local$ Local$ Recom US$m x China Resources Cement selling prices in Southern China market. Conch leveraged on its 9 11.00 BUY 8,107 7.36 (1313 HK) U740 low-cost advantage and higher margin aggregates business Anhui Conch Cmt. 'A' expansion. CNBM’s average capacity utilisation also improved 54.8 60.00 BUY 36,947 8.44 (600585 CH) post merger with SINOMA. Average unit cement gross margin U740 Anhui Conch Cement 'H' was RMB116 (CNBM) – RMB158 per tonne (Conch). Improved 54.05 58.00 BUY 36,947 7.62 U740 (914 HK) cash inflow on operation brought down net gearing to 104% for China National Building Mat CNBM and net cash for Conch and CR Cement. Conch 8.28 8.30 HOLD 8,890 5.69 'H' (3323 HK) outperformed in terms of asset turnover at 1.0x while CNBM ranked the last at 0.6x. These major players are optimistic on the Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“DBS HK”) outlook ahead. A year of consumption plateau instead of collapse is likely. As of U740 late March, China’s cement inventory pile-up continued to decelerate from the year’s high at c.72% of total warehouse capacity. Cement product shipment is normalising to 68% of the production capacity versus 83% in the same period in 2019 post U740 the Chinese New Year holiday. According to China Cement Association, the average price of P.O42.5 grade cementU740 has slid 0.6% w-o-w and has corrected by 5% post CNY, in line with thatU740 in a normal year, but remaining 5% higher YTD. In anticipation of more commencements of construction projects, we expect demand to further recover from the deep sales volume hit in Feb. Meanwhile, we are expecting a decline of 1% in cement sales volume in 2020. China Resources Cement is preferred. Among the big three, CR Cement’s sales activities had resumed to almost 70-90% of normal level as of late March. Amid the regional development policy, the company should see more promising demand from the continuous urbanisation and infrastructure development in the region. We believe CR Cement would benefit from a steadily growing cement consumption and market price outlook. China’s cement stock price has corrected by 9-18% since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak first started in late Dec, and is now trading at 5-7x FY20F price-to-earnings (P/E). Our top pick is CR Cement, with our TP of HK$11.0 pegged at an earnings upcycle valuation at 9x. Newsflow on infrastructure investments and cement price growth are potential catalysts. ed-TH / sa-CS / AH Industry Focus U740 China Cement Sector PE charts Anhui Conch Cement 'H' Anhui Conch Cement 'A' x x U740 25 20 18 20 16 14 +1SD: 11x 15 +1SD: 14.2x 12 10 Avg: 10.1x 10 8 Avg: 8.1x 6 -1SD: 6x -1SD: 5.2x 5 4 2 0 0 U740 Jul-16 Jan-13 Jan-20 Jun-19 Oct-14 Feb-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Dec-15 Nov-18 Mar-14 Aug-13 Aug-20 May-15 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 U740 China National Building Material 'H'U740 China Resources Cement Holdings x x 50 40 45 35 40 30 U740 35 30 25 25 20 +1SD: 17.1x 20 +1SD: 19.2x 15 15 U740 10 Avg: 10.2x 10 Avg: 10.5x -1SD: 3.4x 5 U740 5 -1SD: 1.7x 0 0 U740 Jan-13 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-19 Sep-13 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-17 Sep-19 Sep-19 May-14 May-14 May-16 May-16 May-18 May-18 May-20 May-20 Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK Page 2 U740 U740 Industry Focus China Cement Sector PB charts Anhui Conch Cement 'H' Anhui Conch Cement 'A'* x x 3.0 2.3 2.1 2.5 U740 1.9 +1SD: 2x 2.0 1.7 +1SD: 1.6x Avg: 1.7x 1.5 1.5 Avg: 1.4x -1SD: 1.3x 1.3 1.0 1.1 -1SD: 1.1x 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.5 U740 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 China National Building Material 'H' China Resources Cement Holdings x x 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 +1SD: 1.4x 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 +1SD: 1x Avg: 1.1x 1.0 0.8 Avg: 0.7x 0.8 -1SD: 0.8x 0.6 -1SD: 0.5x 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 U740 0.2 0.0 0.0 Jan-13 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-19 Sep-13 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-17 Sep-19 Sep-19 May-14 May-14 May-16 May-16 May-18 May-18 May-20 May-20 U740 Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS HK Page 3 U740 U740 Industry Focus China Cement Sector Peers comparison Mk t PE PE P/Bk P/Bk EV /EBIT DA Price Cap 20F 21F 20F 21F 20F 21F Company Name Code Currency Local$ US$m x x x x x x HK-listed cement companies U740 Bbmg 'H' 2009 HK HKD 1.88 567 4.3 4.2 0.3 0.3 7.4 7.4 China National Building Mat 'H'* 3323 HK HKD 8.28 8,890 5.9 5.7 0.7 0.7 6.8 6.5 Asia Cement (China) Hdg. 743 HK HKD 7.86 1,589 3.9 4.1 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.2 Anhui Conch Cement 'H'* 914 HK HKD 54.05 36,947 7.5 7.6 1.6 1.4 4.0 3.6 China Shanshui Cmt.Group 691 HK HKD 2.22 1,247 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. China Resources Cement* 1313 HK HKD 9.00 8,107 7.3 7.4 1.4 1.2 3.6 3.3 China Tian.Gp.Cement 1252 HK HKD 8.34 3,161 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. West China Cement 2233 HK HKD 1.24 869 3.5 3.3 0.6 0.5 2.5 2.3 A v erage 5.4 5.4U740 0.9 0.8 4.2 4.1 A-share-listed cement companies Tangshan Jidong Cmt.'A' 000401 CH CNY 19.28 3,659 8.0 7.1 1.4 1.2 4.6 4.3 Anhui Conch Cmt. 'A'* 600585 CH CNY 54.80 36,947 8.3 8.4 1.8 1.6 4.5 4.1 Huaxin Cement 'A' 600801 CH CNY 22.82 6,739 7.1 6.7 1.8 1.5 4.4 4.0 China Gezhouba Group 'A' 600068 CH CNY 6.52 4,229 5.1 4.5 0.6 0.6 7.1 6.3 Gansu Qilianshan Cmt.Gp. 'A' 600720 CH CNY 13.40 1,465 7.6 7.4 1.3 1.1 4.5 4.3 Qingsong Bldg. Mats. 'A' 600425 CH CNY 3.61 701 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Xinjiang Tianshan Cmt 'A' 000877 CH CNY 11.63 1,718 6.6 6.1 1.1 1.0 n.a. n.a. Ningxia Blms.Gp.'A' 600449 CH CNY 13.38 901 6.9 6.4 1.0 0.9 n.a. n.a. A v erage 7.1 6.7 1.3 1.1 5.0 4.6 # FY20: FY21; FY21: FY22 Source: Thomson Reuters, *DBS HK U740 U740 Page 4 U740 Industry Focus U740 China Cement Sector U740 DBS HK recommendations are based on an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return, i.e., > -10%U740 over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return U740of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) U740 *Share price appreciation + dividends Completed Date: 2 Apr 2020 17:29:38 (HKT) Dissemination Date: 2 Apr 2020 18:15:29 (HKT) Sources for all charts and tables are DBS HK unless otherwise specified.
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