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Tampa Bay Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS)

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Tampa Bay Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) July 2012 Tampa` --+--``-`+ Bay Z+ Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) Update of the 2017-2021 CEDS Approved by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, August 14, 2017 Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council Tampa Bay Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) Update of the 2017-2021 CEDS Approved by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, August 14, 2017 Grant Period: January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2019 This document has been prepared with financial assistance from the U.S. Economic Development Administration Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council 4000 Gateway Centre Boulevard, Suite 100 Pinellas Park, Florida 33782 727.570.5151 Table of Contents Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy ........................................................................................ 3 A. Summary Background ................................................................................................................ 3 B. Overview ................................................................................................................................. 6 C. Florida Chamber Six Pillars Matrix of Congruence (with corresponding CEDS Goals) ................................ 6 D. Strategic Action Plan (CEDS Goals) ................................................................................................ 9 E. Evaluation Framework .............................................................................................................. 12 F. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT Analysis) ................................................. 13 G. Resiliency in Economic Development .......................................................................................... 19 H. The Case of Sea Level Rise: Resiliency in the Tampa Bay Area ........................................................... 23 I. Data Tables ............................................................................................................................ 32 J. Community and Private Sector Participation: The CEDS Steering Committee ....................................... 63 v Tables Table E-1 Evaluation Framework ........................................................................................................... 12 Table F-1 Six Pillar Qualitative Measures ................................................................................................. 14 Table G-1 2017 Resiliency Metrics .......................................................................................................... 22 Table H-1 When Mean Sea Level Increases by 2.95 Feet ............................................................................. 24 Table H-2 Property Value and Tax Revenue Loss: Simulation 1 ..................................................................... 25 Table H-3 Property Vaue and Taxes ......................................................................................................... 26 Table H-4 Job Losses: Simulation 2 ......................................................................................................... 27 Table H-5 Job Losses: results ................................................................................................................. 27 Table H-6 Tourism Losses: Simulation 3 ................................................................................................... 28 Table H-7 Composite Simulation ............................................................................................................ 29 Table H-8 Cumulative Effects of Composite Simulation ............................................................................... 35 Table H-9 Composite Effects as Percent of the Baseline .............................................................................. 35 Table I-1 Average Wages per Job (From highest to lowest by county) Tampa Bay Region and State 2006 to 2016 .. 32 Table I-2 High School Graduation Rates Tampa Bay Region and State School Years 2010/11 to 2015/16 (%) ......... 34 Table I-3 Gross Domestic Product Tampa Bay Region and State Billions of Fixed 2005 Dollars 2008 to 2016 .......... 35 Table I-5 Tourism Development Tax Collections Tampa Bay Region, Miami-Dade, Orange and Palm Beach Counties and State Thousands of Dollars 2006 to 2016................................................................................ 37 Table I-6 Trade Imports and Exports Tampa Bay Region and State Billions of Fixed 2015 Dollars 2008 to 2016 ...... 39 Table I-7 Population Counts, Estimates and Projections Tampa Bay Region and State 2000 to 2040 .................... 40 Table I-8 Annual Building Permits Tampa Bay Region and State Single Family Residential Units 2005 to 2016 ........ 43 Table I-9 Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled Tampa Bay Region and State Millions of Miles 2008 to 2015 .................... 45 Table I-10 Average Annual Unemployment Rates in the Tampa Bay Region and Florida 2005 to 2016 .................. 46 Table I-11 Employment by Largest Industries Tampa Bay Region 2007 to 2016 ............................................... 48 Table I-12 Average Annual Wages by Industry Tampa Bay Region Thousands of Current Dollars 2007 to 2016 ...... 50 Table I-13 Registered 501(c)3 Organizations Public and Private Foundation Charities Tampa Bay Region and State Number and Assets in 2013 ....................................................................................................... 51 Table I-14 Real Personal Per Capita Income Tampa Bay Region and State Nominal Dollars (Thousands) 2006 to 2015 ............................................................................................................................................ 52 Table I-15 Relative Housing Price Tampa Bay Region and State National Index = 1.0 2005 to 2015 ...................... 53 Table I-16 Percent of Persons Living in Poverty Tampa Bay Region and State 1960 to 2010................................ 54 vi Illustrations IIllustration F-1 Talent Supply and Education ........................................................................................... 15 Illustration F-1a “Salad Days” Population Growth (Ages 25-44) .................................................................... 15 Illustration F-2 Innovation and Economic Development .............................................................................. 16 Illustration F-2a Patent Diversity among US Counties .................................................................................. 16 Illustration F-3 Infrastructure and Growth Leadership ................................................................................. 17 Illustration F-4 Business Climate and Competitiveness ................................................................................ 17 Illustration F-5 Income inequality among Florida Regions ............................................................................ 17 llustration I-1 Average Wages per Job Tampa Bay Region and State 2012 to 2016 ........................................... 33 Illustration I-2 Percent Change in Gross Regional Product, Tampa Bay Region and Florida ................................. 36 Illustration I-3 Tourism Development Tax Collections .................................................................................. 31 Illustration I-4 Age dependencies in the Tampa Bay Region ......................................................................... 42 Illustration I-5 Percent Change in Permitted Residential Units ..................................................................... 44 Illustration I-6 Year over Year Percentage Change in VMT, 2008-2035 ........................................................... 44 Illustration I-7 Average Annual Unemployment Rates Tampa Bay Region and Florida 2005 to 2015 ..................... 47 Illustration I-8 Largest Employment Sectors, 2008-2016 ............................................................................. 47 Illustration I-9 Percent of Persons Living in Poverty Tampa Bay Region and State 1960 to 2010 .......................... 55 vii Executive Summary The U.S. Economic Development Administration directs each designated Economic Development District to develop and maintain a Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS) with the assistance of public involvement. Economic Development Districts are require to fully update the CEDS every five years and may elect to update the CEDS on an annual basis. Currently, the Tampa Bay Economic Development District’s CEDS expires in 2017. Because the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council’s geographic responsibilities recently expanded to include the counties of Citrus and Hernando, the Council has elected to update all of its data tables and its Goals. All tables and graphics herein are current as of June 1, 2017. viii Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy 2017-2021 ix 2 Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy A. Summary Background The U.S. Economic Development Administration (EDA) maintains geographic districts for its various programs. Called Economic Development Districts, in Florida the Districts are coterminous with the boundaries of each of the ten Florida regional planning councils. In the Tampa Bay Economic Development District, the Tampa Bay region is comprised of Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco and Pinellas Counties and all of their jurisdictions therein. EDA directs each designated Economic Development District to develop and maintain a Comprehensive Economic Development
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