GHG Intensity of Natural Gas Transport
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GHG Intensity of Natural Gas Transport Comparison of Additional Natural Gas Imports to Europe by Nord Stream 2 Pipeline and LNG Import Alternatives Final Report Title: GHG Intensity of Natural Gas Transport Comparison of Additional Natural Gas Imports to Europe by Nord Stream 2 Pipeline and LNG Import Alternatives Client: Nord Stream 2 AG Report version: v1.0 Report date: 24/03/2017 © thinkstep AG On behalf of thinkstep AG and its subsidiaries Document prepared by Manfred Russ Title Senior Consultant - Energy and Oil & Gas Signature Quality assurance by Alexander Stoffregen Title Senior Consultant - Energy and Oil & Gas Signature Under the supervision of Dr. Oliver Schuller Title Principal Consultant / Team Lead - Energy and Oil & Gas This report has been prepared by thinkstep with all reasonable skill and diligence within the terms and conditions of the contract between thinkstep and the client. thinkstep is not accountable to the client, or any others, with respect to any matters outside the scope agreed upon for this project. Regardless of report confidentiality, thinkstep does not accept responsibility of whatsoever nature to any third parties to whom this report, or any part thereof, is made known. Any such party relies on the report at its own risk. Interpretations, analyses, or statements of any kind made by a third party and based on this report are beyond thinkstep’s responsibility. If you have any suggestions, complaints, or any other feedback, please contact us at [email protected]. GHG Intensity of Natural Gas Transport 2 of 113 Table of contents Table of contents _______________________________________________________________ 3 List of figures __________________________________________________________________ 6 List of tables ___________________________________________________________________ 8 List of acronyms _______________________________________________________________10 LCA glossary _________________________________________________________________13 Executive summary ____________________________________________________________14 1. Introduction _____________________________________________________________18 1.1. Natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ________________________________18 1.2. Introduction to the study ________________________________________________21 2. Goal of the study _________________________________________________________24 3. Scope of the study ________________________________________________________25 3.1. Product systems _______________________________________________________25 3.2. Product function and functional unit ______________________________________26 3.3. System boundaries _____________________________________________________27 3.3.1. Time coverage _______________________________________________________32 3.3.2. Technology coverage__________________________________________________32 3.3.3. Geographical coverage ________________________________________________33 3.4. Allocation _____________________________________________________________33 3.5. Cut-off criteria _________________________________________________________33 3.6. Selection of global warming potential (GWP) as impact category ______________33 3.7. Interpretation to be used ________________________________________________35 3.8. Data quality requirements _______________________________________________35 3.9. Type and format of the report ____________________________________________35 3.10. Software and database __________________________________________________36 3.11. Critical review _________________________________________________________36 4. Life cycle inventory analysis _______________________________________________37 4.1. Number format ________________________________________________________37 4.2. Product characteristics _________________________________________________37 4.3. Data collection procedure _______________________________________________37 4.4. Product system A – supply of natural gas via NSP2 to EU ____________________39 4.4.1. Overview on product system A __________________________________________39 4.4.2. Production and processing _____________________________________________41 4.4.3. Pipeline transport _____________________________________________________43 4.5. Product system B – supply of natural gas via LNG imports to EU ______________47 GHG Intensity of Natural Gas Transport 3 of 113 4.5.1. Overview on product system B __________________________________________47 4.5.2. Production and processing _____________________________________________51 4.5.3. Pipeline transport _____________________________________________________58 4.5.4. Purification (part of liquefaction) _________________________________________59 4.5.5. Liquefaction _________________________________________________________60 4.5.6. LNG transport _______________________________________________________65 4.5.7. Regasification _______________________________________________________71 4.6. Background data _______________________________________________________72 4.6.1. Fuels and electricity ___________________________________________________72 4.6.2. Raw materials and processes ___________________________________________72 4.6.3. Transportation _______________________________________________________74 4.7. Life cycle inventory analysis results ______________________________________74 5. Life cycle impact assessment results ________________________________________76 5.1. Overall GHG results ____________________________________________________76 5.2. Comparison of results with literature data __________________________________80 5.2.1. Considered studies ___________________________________________________80 5.2.2. Comparison for natural gas import via pipeline ______________________________80 5.2.3. Comparison for natural gas import via LNG routes ___________________________82 5.3. Sensitivity analysis _____________________________________________________85 5.4. Scenario analysis ______________________________________________________92 5.5. Uncertainty analysis ____________________________________________________96 6. Interpretation ____________________________________________________________98 6.1. Identification of relevant findings _________________________________________98 6.2. Assumptions and limitations ____________________________________________100 6.3. Results of comparison with literature data as well as sensitivity, scenario, and uncertainty analysis ___________________________________________________101 6.3.1. Comparison of GHG results with Literature data ____________________________101 6.3.2. Sensitivity analysis ___________________________________________________101 6.3.3. Scenario analysis ____________________________________________________101 6.3.4. Uncertainty analysis __________________________________________________102 6.4. Data quality assessment _______________________________________________102 6.4.1. Precision and completeness ___________________________________________102 6.4.2. Consistency and reproducibility _________________________________________103 6.4.3. Representativeness __________________________________________________103 6.5. Model completeness and consistency ____________________________________103 6.5.1. Completeness ______________________________________________________103 6.5.2. Consistency ________________________________________________________103 6.6. Conclusions, limitations, and recommendations ___________________________104 6.6.1. Conclusions ________________________________________________________104 6.6.2. Limitations _________________________________________________________105 6.6.3. Recommendations ___________________________________________________105 References __________________________________________________________________106 Annex A: Additional result analysis ____________________________________________108 GHG Intensity of Natural Gas Transport 4 of 113 Annex B: Additional scenario analysis _________________________________________110 Annex C: Critical review report ________________________________________________113 GHG Intensity of Natural Gas Transport 5 of 113 List of figures Figure 1-1: Terminology and constituents of natural (IGU, 2012) ..............................................19 Figure 1-2: Expected future development of natural gas trade (IEA, 2016) ..............................20 Figure 1-3: Current LNG capacity including plants under construction (GIIGNL, 2004- 2016) ........................................................................................................................20 Figure 1-4: Primary energy production in Europe (past, present and forecast) and projected incremental net energy imports into Europe (European Commission, 2016) ........................................................................................................................22 Figure 1-5: Value chain of natural gas with technical focus area of the study highlighted in blue (IGU, 2012) ......................................................................................................23 Figure 3-1: System boundary – entry points of imports to Europe, LNG vs. NSP2 (King&Spalding, 2015) (Nord Stream 2, 2016) ........................................................28 Figure 3-2: System boundaries – considered natural gas import pathways to Europe (thinkstep, 2017a) ....................................................................................................29 Figure 3-3: System boundary – supply chain of natural gas (LNG route), included