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Russia's Energy Strategy

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Russia's Energy Strategy Russia’s Energy Strategy: Challenges and Foreign Energy Policy Ana Cláudia Figueiredo Sousa Campos Dissertação de Mestrado em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais Área de especialização em Globalização e Dinâmicas Regionais Versão corrigida e melhorada após defesa pública Lisboa, Março de 2018 Dissertação apresentada para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência Política e Relações Internacionais, área de especialização em Globalização e Dinâmicas Regionais, realizada sob a orientação científica da Professora Doutora Teresa Rodrigues e da Professora Doutora Carla Fernandes. Esta dissertação foi realizada no âmbito do Projeto Geo4Ger – A Geopolítica do Gás e o Futuro da Relação Euro-Russa «PTDC/IVC-CPO/1245/2014» financiado por Fundos Nacionais através da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia. II AGRADECIMENTOS A elaboração desta dissertação foi possível graças ao empenho e dedicação pessoais, mas também ao apoio de várias pessoas, às quais quero deixar um profundo agradecimento. Em primeiro lugar, às minhas orientadoras, a Professora Doutora Teresa Ferreira Rodrigues e a Professora Doutora Carla Isabel Fernandes. A sua ajuda, disponibilidade e apoio incondicional foram indispensável para conseguir concluir esta dissertação. Quero fazer um especial agradecimento à Professora Carla Fernandes, pois foi quem me motivou e inspirou a aprofundar os meus conhecimentos sobre este tema, e sem a qual esta dissertação não teria sido possível. À Margarida Marques, pela revisão do texto escrito em inglês, que foi indispensável à conclusão desta tese. E especialmente por toda a paciência, apoio, motivação e amizade demonstrados desde o inicio. À Anna Momotova, pela preciosa ajuda nas traduções dos textos em Russo, que tornaram esta dissertação possível, e um especial agradecimento por todo o apoio e incentivo. Aos meus amigos, que de uma forma mais directa ou indirecta, contribuíram para conclusão desta etapa. Um enorme obrigado por toda a paciência e carinho que me deram durante esta fase. Aos meus pais, em especial, e a toda a minha família. Obrigada por apoiaram os meus objectivos e acreditarem em mim, sem vocês nada disto teria sido possível. III Russia’s Energy Strategy: Challenges and Foreign Energy Policy Ana Cláudia Figueiredo Sousa Campos ABSTRACT Russia is one of the most important players in the global energy system and one of the world's largest producers and exporters of energy. Energy is essential to the security, stability and development of the Russian Federation, as its economy heavily depends on energy exports. As such, energy security is a priority. Russia’s Energy Strategy aims to ensure its energy security and to guarantee its position in the global energy system. The Strategy identifies the main internal and external challenges to its energy security. New challenges are emerging, such as strengthening of competition in energy markets, emergence of new energy producers and supply routes, sanctions, instability and volatility of oil prices, among others. Therefore, Russia needs to adapt to the new dynamics in order to maintain its position and ensure its security. The strategy towards foreign energy policy is a key element to face these challenges. Russia is developing a strategy based on diversification to the Asia-Pacific region, in particular to China, as well as on energy cooperation with its traditional consumers, but also with other entities such as BRICS, EAEU, OPEC and GECF. This dissertation aims to analyse how the external challenges to Russia’s energy security are shaping its strategy towards foreign energy policy. Keywords: Russia; Energy; Strategy; Challenges; Foreign Energy Policy. IV Russia’s Energy Strategy: Challenges and Foreign Energy Policy Ana Cláudia Figueiredo Sousa Campos RESUMO A Rússia é um dos mais importantes actores no sistema energético global e um dos maiores produtores e exportadores de energia do Mundo. A energia é assim fundamental para a segurança, estabilidade e desenvolvimento da Federação Russa, já que a sua economia depende fortemente das exportações energéticas. Como tal, a segurança energética é uma prioridade. A Estratégia Energética Russa tem como principal objectivo garantir a sua segurança energética e assegurar a posição Russa no sistema energético global. A estratégia identifica os principais desafios internos e externos à sua segurança energética. Estão a surgir novos desafios, como o aumento da competição dos mercados energéticos, a emergência de novos produtores, as sanções, a instabilidade e a volatilidade dos preços, entre outros. Assim, a Rússia necessita adaptar-se às novas dinâmicas de forma a manter a sua posição e garantir a sua segurança. A estratégia para política externa energética é uma parte fundamental para fazer face a estes desafios. Como tal, a Rússia está a desenvolver uma estratégia de diversificação para a região da Ásia-Pacífico, em especial para a China, e também uma estratégia de cooperação energética com os seus tradicionais consumidores, mas também com outras entidades como os BRICS, a EAEU, a OPEC e o GECF. Esta dissertação pretende analisar como os desafios externos à segurança energética Russa estão a moldar a sua estratégia para a política externa energética. Palavras-chave: Rússia; Energia; Estratégia; Desafios; Política Externa Energética. V Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter I - Research Framework ................................................................................. 4 1.1. Relevance, objectives and research questions .................................................................... 4 1.2. Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 6 1.3. Conceptual analyses ........................................................................................................... 7 1.4. State of the art .................................................................................................................. 12 Chapter II - Russia’s Energy Panorama .................................................................... 16 2.1. Russia's Energy Profile .................................................................................................... 16 2.1.1. Coal ........................................................................................................................... 16 2.1.2. Oil .............................................................................................................................. 20 2.1.3. Natural Gas ................................................................................................................ 24 2.1.4. Liquefied Natural Gas ............................................................................................... 28 2.1.5. Nuclear energy .......................................................................................................... 28 2.1.6. Renewable Energy ..................................................................................................... 29 2.1.7. Electricity .................................................................................................................. 29 2.2. Energy and Russian economy .......................................................................................... 30 Chapter III - Challenges to Russian Energy Security ............................................... 34 3.1. Main external challenges to Russia’s energy security ...................................................... 34 3.1.1. Slowdown of demand for Russian energy resources in traditional markets .............. 34 3.1.2. Strengthening of competition in energy markets and emergence of new energy producers and supply routes ................................................................................................ 38 3.1.3. The sanctions and the difficult access to investment ................................................. 45 3.1.4. Instability of world energy markets and volatility of oil prices ................................ 48 Chapter IV - Russia’s Energy Strategy ...................................................................... 51 4.1. Russia’s Energy Strategy ................................................................................................. 51 4.2. Russia’s Foreign Energy Policy ....................................................................................... 52 4.2.1. Cooperation with traditional consumers .................................................................... 53 4.2.2. Diversification of Russia’s energy export markets and products .............................. 60 4.2.3. Cooperation within the BRICS and the Eurasian Economic Union .......................... 67 4.2.4. Cooperation with OPEC and within GECF ............................................................... 73 Chapter V - Final remarks .......................................................................................... 80 Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 89 VI List of Figures, Charts & Tables Fig.1 – Map of pipelines for supplying Europe with Russia’s natural gas ..................... 27 Fig.2 – Share of Russia’s natural gas in EU-28 imports, 2016 (%) ............................... 37 Fig.3 – Projects of Common Interest – Natural Gas......................................................
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