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Equity Mediobanca Equity Company Note 31 July 2020: 13:35 CET Mediobanca Date and time of production 4Q19/20 Results ADD In 4Q19/20 Mediobanca reported solid results that showed a resilient NII, lower than expected loan loss provisions and a very solid CET1 ratio, which we think would allow Target Price: EUR 8.3 a generous capital return policy to shareholders (in cash dividends and buyback) when the regulator allows it. M&A remains an option for Mediobanca. Management (from EUR 8.0) confirmed the business plan targets and provided a positive outlook for FY20/21. We raise our adj. EPS by 12% in FY20/21E, 6% in FY 21/22E and 7% in FY22/23E. Italy/Banks Update 4Q19/20 results Price Performance In 4Q19/20, Mediobanca reported a solid set of results: net income came in at EUR 48M, (RIC: MDBI.MI, BB: MB IM) 120 broadly in line with our estimates (EUR 43M) and above FactSet consensus (EUR 38M). 110 100 Results were penalised by the impairment of the goodwill of RAM (EUR -65M, non-cash 90 80 70 item, with no impact on the capital base). On the other hand, we see three positive 60 50 elements: 1) resilience of NII, despite a halved new production in Consumer Finance; 40 J A S O N D J F M A M J J 2) lower than expected loan loss provisions and improvement of FY20/21 guidance; and Mediobanca FTSE IT All Sh - PRICE INDEX 3) a very strong capital base (CET1 FL at 14.5%,+170bps qoq), which we estimate could Mediobanca - Key Data allow an over 10% capital return policy (when regulator allows it) as well as M&A activity. Price date (market close) 29/07/2020 Target price (EUR) 8.3 BP target confirmed and positive outlook Target upside (%) 19.63 Market price (EUR) 6.94 Market cap (EUR M) 6,155.5 Mediobanca confirmed its business plan targets (with a different trajectory) that foresee 52Wk range (EUR) 11.0/4.2 a 4% revenues CAGR, a 4% EPS CAGR, a 2023T ROTE of 11% and a CET1 ratio at 13.5% Price performance % 1M 3M 12M in 2023T. M&A continues to be an option. The outlook for FY20/21 is better than our Absolute 6.2 25.8 -25.5 expectations: 1) NII is expected to decline at a single digit, mainly due to lower volumes Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh 4.1 14.5 -18.6 in Consumer Finance; 2) fees are expected to benefit from the pipeline of CIB deals Y/E Jun (EUR M) 19/20A 20/21E 21/22E and the growth of AUM; 3) the cost income ratio is expected below 50%; and 4) the Total income 2,513.0 2,429.9 2,605.6 cost of risk guidance has been improved (close to 82bps vs. 100bps expected). Gross op profit 1,324.1 1,209.7 1,346.7 Pre-tax income 795.3 761.2 944.3 Net income 600.4 586.6 733.5 Valuation Adj EPS (EUR) 0.77 0.68 0.85 SampleTBV PS (EUR) 10.4 11.0 11.3 We confirm our rating of ADD and raise our target price to EUR 8.3/share vs. EUR 8.0/sh. Our Adj P/E (x) 10.9 10.2 8.1 P/TBV (x) 0.81 0.63 0.61 positive stance is supported by: 1) the business diversification that provides a good resilience Div ord (EUR) 0 0.55 0.57 to revenues; 2) the strong capital base/generous capital return strategy; 3) a strong asset Div ord yield (%) 0 7.9 8.3 quality in CIB and WM; and 4) the undemanding valuation (5.7x FY21/22 P/E excluding PI). Source: Company data, FactSet and Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates Intesa Sanpaolo Research Dept. Manuela Meroni - Research Analyst +39 02 8794 9817 [email protected] Financial Team Manuela Meroni, Elena Perini, CFA See page 13 for full disclosure and analyst certification 31 July 2020: 13:38 CET Date and time of first circulation Mediobanca 31 July 2020 Contents 4Q19/20 Results 3 Earnings Outlook 5 Business plan guidance confirmed and positive outlook 5 Estimates revision 6 Valuation 7 ESG Angle 8 Company Snapshot 10 Sample 2 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department Mediobanca 31 July 2020 4Q19/20 Results In 4Q19/20, Mediobanca reported a solid set of results: net income came in at EUR 48M, broadly in line with our estimates (EUR 43M) and above FactSet consensus (EUR 38M). Positive surprises came from total income and loan loss provisions, offset by the impairment of the goodwill of RAM that negatively impacted the 4Q19/20 bottom line for EUR 65M (non-cash item, with no impact on the capital base). In FY19/20, Mediobanca reported a net income of EUR 600M for a ROTE of 6.7%. The company stated that the FY19/20 pre-tax income was negatively impacted by EUR 285M non-recurring items, of which EUR 220M due to the COVID-19 outbreak (half of which due to higher loan loss provisions) and EUR 65M due to RAM impairment. Normalised for these two items, pre-tax income would have been broadly in line with FY18/19 and revenues and gross operating income would have increased by 3% and 4%, respectively. Medioabanca – 4Q/FY19-20 results EUR M 4Q19A 3Q20A 4Q20A 4Q20E 4Q20C 4Q A/E % 4Q A/C % 4Q qoq% 4Q yoy % FY20A FY20C Net Interest Income 349 360 361 344 341 4.8 5.7 0.1 3.4 1,442 1,407 Commission income 150 159 143 136 135 5.0 5.9 -10.0 -4.5 630 623 Trading income 46 -3 47 43 30 11.3 58.0 NM 2.6 136 NA Income from associated 96 66 55 14 NM 301.2 NA -16.7 -43.2 304 NA Total income 641 582 606 536 524 13.0 15.6 4.1 -5.5 2,513 2,443 Operating Costs 309 300 298 305 318 -2.4 -6.3 -0.6 -3.6 1,189 1,208 Gross Operating Income 332 282 308 231 206 33.4 49.5 9.1 -7.2 1,324 1,235 LLP 61 100 165 181 176.5 -8.6 -6.3 65.4 170.3 375 382 Pre-tax Income 258 101 77 58 55 32.1 40.4 -23.3 -70.0 795 775 Net income 197 85 48 43 37.5 12 28.5 -43.0 -75.5 600 591 CoR (bps) 56 85 141 154 NA NM NA NM NM 84 NM CET1 FL (%) 12.8 12.7 14.5 13.4 NA 8.2 NA 14.5 13.3 14.5 NM A: actual; E: estimates; C: FactSet consensus; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research The main positive surprises come from total income, loan loss provisions and capital base. Stronger than expected total income: total income came in above expectations, Stronger than expected total mainly thanks to the stronger than expected contribution from equity accounted income. companies (that, unusually, incorporated the writeback to shares and AFS funds reported by Generali in June). However, the main positive news came from the NII, which remains stable qoq (vs. -4.6% qoq expected), thanks to a stronger than expected performance of ConsumerSample Finance that managed to keep NII broadly stable qoq despite a halved new production in the quarter. Also commission income (down by 4.5% yoy) came in above our expectations, thanks to a resilience in Wealth Management business that recovered part of AUM/AUA lost in 1Q20; Lower than expected loan loss provisions: in 4Q19/20, Mediobanca reported a cost Lower than expected loan loss of risk of 141bps vs. 154bps expected. The quarter showed a significant and provisions expected increase in cost of risk of Consumer Finance business (361bps vs. 223bps in 3Q19/20) and CIB (70bps vs. 37bps in 3Q19/20). 4Q19/20 provisions embed the update of the macro scenario mainly impacting CIB and the increase of the coverage on performing loans in Consumer Finance: group coverage ratios increased on Stage 1 (+9bps to 55bps) and Stage 3 (+20bps to 55.3%) and slightly declined on Stage 2 (-30bps to 10.2%). In FY19/20, the cost of risk was 82bps from 52bps in FY18/19. Management improved the cost of risk guidance for FY20/21 from 100bps to “closer to 82bps rather than Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 3 Mediobanca 31 July 2020 100bps”. We understood that management expects a cost of risk broadly in line with 82bps reported in FY19/20, i.e. 10-20bps below previous expectations; Solid capital position. The capital position remained very solid, with a CET1 ratio FL Solid capital position at 14.5%, +170bps qoq, benefitting from regulatory changes (of which 50bps on lower reductions for the Generali stake that will be reduced to 10bps from next year) and the recovery of dividend accrued in the previous quarters (50bps), in line with ECB ban on dividend payment and shares buyback in 2020. CET1 phased in improved by 220bps qoq to16.1%, well above the company’s 2023T target of 13.5%, leaving significant room for a generous capital return to shareholders and M&A. Sample 4 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department Mediobanca 31 July 2020 Earnings Outlook Business plan guidance confirmed and positive outlook Management confirmed its 2023 business plan targets, that, due to the COVID-19 Business plan targets confirmed outbreak, could be reached following a different than originally planned trajectory.
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