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Southern Connector Toll Rate Study

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Southern Connector Toll Rate Study Southern Connector Toll Rate Study Prepared for: Connector 2000 Association, Inc. Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Services, Inc. November 20, 2015 Sign-off Sheet This document entitled Southern Connector Toll Rate Study was prepared by Stantec Consulting Services Inc. (“Stantec”) for the account of Connector 2000 Association, Inc. (the “Client”). Any reliance on this document by any third party is strictly prohibited. The material in it reflects Stantec’s professional judgment in light of the scope, schedule and other limitations stated in the document and in the contract between Stantec and the Client. The opinions in the document are based on conditions and information existing at the time the document was published and do not take into account any subsequent changes. In preparing the document, Stantec did not verify information supplied to it by others. Any use which a third party makes of this document is the responsibility of such third party. Such third party agrees that Stantec shall not be responsible for costs or damages of any kind, if any, suffered by it or any other third party as a result of decisions made or actions taken based on this document. Prepared by (signature) Fleur Hartmann, PE Reviewed by (signature) Thomas Harknett, PE SOUTHERN CONNECTOR TOLL RATE STUDY Table of Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................1.1 1.1 DESCRIPTION................................................................................................................... 1.1 1.2 FINANCIAL HISTORY ....................................................................................................... 1.3 1.3 TOLL COLLECTION AND TOLL RATES ............................................................................ 1.3 1.3.1 PalPass Discounts ......................................................................................... 1.4 1.3.2 Multi-Axle Discounts ..................................................................................... 1.5 2.0 TRAFFIC AND REVENUE GROWTH ...............................................................................2.1 2.1 MONTHLY TRAFFIC VARIATIONS ................................................................................... 2.5 2.2 DAILY TRAFFIC VARIATIONS .......................................................................................... 2.7 2.3 TRAFFIC AND TOLL REVENUE BY LOCATION ............................................................... 2.8 2.4 TRAFFIC AND TOLL REVENUE BY VEHICLE CLASS AND PAYMENT TYPE .................... 2.9 2.5 TRAFFIC TRENDS SINCE JANUARY 2014 ..................................................................... 2.14 2.6 TRAFFIC STUDIES............................................................................................................ 2.17 2.6.1 Volumes on Competing Routes .............................................................. 2.17 2.6.2 Southern Connector Volumes ................................................................. 2.18 2.6.3 Origin-Destination Patterns on the Southern Connector ..................... 2.20 2.7 SPEED STUDIES ............................................................................................................... 2.21 2.8 IMPACT OF PAST TOLL INCREASES ............................................................................. 2.22 3.0 SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS .................................................3.1 3.1 POPULATION ................................................................................................................... 3.1 3.2 EMPLOYMENT ................................................................................................................. 3.3 3.3 REAL ESTATE STUDY ......................................................................................................... 3.6 3.3.1 Residential Development ........................................................................... 3.7 3.3.2 Non-residential Regional Development ................................................... 3.7 3.3.3 Non-residential Development in Southern Connector Corridor ........... 3.8 4.0 FUTURE ROADWAY NETWORK IMPROVEMENTS ..........................................................4.1 5.0 PROJECTED TRAFFIC AND REVENUE ...........................................................................5.1 5.1 ESTIMATED 2015 TRAFFIC AND REVENUE ..................................................................... 5.1 5.2 OVERALL TRAFFIC GROWTH FORECASTING PROCEDURE......................................... 5.1 5.3 ESTIMATED TRAFFIC AND REVENUE, PROPOSED TOLLS .............................................. 5.2 5.4 ASSUMPTIONS ................................................................................................................. 5.6 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Historical Toll Rates, 2-Axle Vehicles ......................................................................... 1.4 Table 2: Historical Toll Rates, Multi-Axle Vehicles ................................................................... 1.4 Table 3: Fleet Volume Discount Program ............................................................................... 1.5 Table 4: Southern Connector Transaction and Revenue Growth ...................................... 2.1 Table 5: Monthly Transaction Comparison ............................................................................ 2.4 Table 6: Monthly Revenue Comparison ................................................................................. 2.4 SOUTHERN CONNECTOR TOLL RATE STUDY Table 7: 2014 Monthly Traffic .................................................................................................... 2.5 Table 8: Transactions by Day of the Week ............................................................................. 2.7 Table 9: 2014 Traffic and Revenue by Location .................................................................... 2.8 Table 10: 2015 Traffic and Revenue by Class ........................................................................ 2.9 Table 11: Traffic and Revenue by Payment Type ............................................................... 2.11 Table 12: 2014 and 2015 ADT by Month ............................................................................... 2.14 Table 13: SCDOT Counts in the Study Area.......................................................................... 2.18 Table 14: Top 10 Origin-Destination pairs for Personal Trips (Average Day) .................... 2.20 Table 15: Top 10 Origin-Destination pairs for Commercial Trips (Average Day) ............. 2.21 Table 16: Observed Speeds on Interstate Routes ............................................................... 2.22 Table 17: Elasticity Calculations for Toll Increases ............................................................... 2.23 Table 18: Theoretical Impact of Revenue on Toll Increases Elasticity = -0.40 ................. 2.24 Table 19: Historical Population Comparison 1990 – 2010 ..................................................... 3.1 Table 20: Greenville County Estimated Population 2000 – 2035 ......................................... 3.2 Table 21: 2008 GPATS Model Area Estimated Population 2000 - 2030 ............................... 3.3 Table 22: Greenville County Employment 1990 – 2013 ........................................................ 3.4 Table 23: Greenville Area Estimated Employment 2000 – 2030 .......................................... 3.4 Table 24: GPATS Model Area Estimated Employment 2000 - 2030 ..................................... 3.5 Table 25: Employment Distribution 2000 – 2030 ..................................................................... 3.5 Table 26: Proposed Toll Schedule through 2028 .................................................................... 5.3 Table 27: Annual Traffic and Revenue Forecast ................................................................... 5.5 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Southern Connector Location Map ........................................................................ 1.2 Figure 2: Annual Transactions .................................................................................................. 2.2 Figure 3: Annual Revenue ........................................................................................................ 2.2 Figure 4: Monthly ADT Variations ............................................................................................. 2.6 Figure 5: Indexed Monthly Transactions 2002 – 2014 ............................................................ 2.6 Figure 6: Daily Factors by Day of the Week ........................................................................... 2.8 Figure 7: Percent Multi-axle Transactions 2002-2015 ........................................................... 2.10 Figure 8: PalPass Usage 2002 to 2015 .................................................................................... 2.12 Figure 9: Account Locations for PalPass Transactions (2015 Partial Year) ....................... 2.13 Figure 10: Southern Connector Transactions vs VMT .......................................................... 2.15 Figure 11: Comparison of Growth Rates of SC Transactions and Price of Gasoline ...... 2.16 Figure 12: US East Coast Retail Gasoline Prices and Short-Term Forecasts (September 2014 Indexed to 1.00) ......................................................................... 2.17 Figure 13: 2015 Volumes in the Study Area .........................................................................
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