Cairn India Ltd
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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by Indian Association of Investment Professionals, India Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, Delhi Team - Andrei Marga Andrei Marga Oil and Gas Andrei Marga Cairn India Ltd. 12th October 2012 Strong Fundamentals and Attractive Valuations Industry: Oil and Gas Ticker: NSE/CAIRN Recommendation: BUY Sector: Exploration & Production (Upstream) Current Price: Rs. 330.05 Strong12 Month fundamentals Target Price: and lucrative Rs. 378.46 valuations As on 11 th Oct 2012 (14.54% upside) Market Profile 52 Week Price Range (Rs.) 277.05 - 401.1 Highlights Average Daily Volume 2167449 Strong visibility for future produc tion growth: The de-bottlenecking of pipeline expected to Beta 0.83 be completed by Q1FY14 would increase production to 190kbpod. In addition, Aishwarya field Shares Outstanding 1,909 M is expected to produce 10kbpod from FY14 with production from Bhagyam field also likely to Market Capitalization (Rs.) 630,066.1M reach 40kbpod by FY15. Institutional Holdings 25.13% Deployment of cash presents upside: The Company plans to utilize its cash reserves by Book Value per share (Rs.) incurring a net C apex of $2bn over the next two years to expand exploration and production of 252.97 oil and gas both in the country as well as abroad. This Capex will s upport the potential estimated Debt to Total Capital 2.30% oil production of 300kbpod as per revised management estimates. Return to Equity 16.40% Strong financial performance: The Company has maintained a healthy EBITDA margin with an average of 74% over the past three years which is better than global ave rage of 52% and other domestic peers. Currently the company ha s an OCF/PAT ratio of 89%. Over the period 2013-21, Company Grid Ratings OCF /PAT is expected to be in between 120-130%. Cairn is a zero-debt company with 16.44 % return on equity and cash reserves of $2bn . Low High Encouragin g discoveries in overseas and domestic blocks: Out of the 7 exploration blocks of 1 2 3 4 5 Cairn India, 3 blocks have registered successful discoveries. It plans to start the second Earnings Growth exploration phase in Sri Lanka in mid-2013. Furthermore, the KG basin Nagyalanka-SE block Cash Flow has in -place oil reserves estimates of 550mboe. In addition, Cairn India has also recently acquired a 60% stake in a deep sea gas discovery in South Africa. B/S Strength Low cost producer: Cairn India enjoys one of the lowest exploration and production costs i n Valuation Appeal world. The company had field direct operating cost of $2/boe. Risk Valuation: On the basis of Discounted Cash Flow valuation and Comparables Analysis, we recommend a target price of 378.46 INR, offering a 1 4.54 % upside from current stock price. Our Stock Performance target pri ce is the weighted average of the two methods and is justified given the strong (as of 11/10/2012) 1m 3m 6m 1y fundamentals of the company. Absolute -2.9% 5.9% -4.8% 18.9% Key risks to the target price: Cairn India’s revenues largely depend upon crude oil prices and Nifty 5.9% 7.6% 9.2% 11.9% INR/USD exchange rate fluctuations. The other risks being delay in pipeline de-bottlenecking and government approvals for production increase. Cairn India stock chart relative to index (rebased) Financial Snapshot INR FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E FY 16E FY 17E Source: Bloomberg Revenue (mn) 16,230 102,779 118,607 208,017 233,032 248,351 238,364 219,196 EBITDA (mn) 9,874 84,211 95,533 120,619 129,294 138,449 127,016 111,111 Net Income (mn) 10,511 63,344 79,377 82,556 88,201 94,589 86,378 75,137 Earnings per Share 5.5 33.2 41.6 43.3 46.2 49.6 45.3 39.4 Book Value per Share 177.41 211.07 252.97 296.22 342.42 391.97 437.22 476.57 Return on Equity 3.10% 15.72% 16.44% 14.60% 13.49% 12.64% 10.35% 8.26% Return on Assets 2.99% 16.27% 18.90% 17.79% 18.79% 19.93% 18.05% 15.57% Page 1 CFA Institute Research Challenge October 12, 2012 Business Description One of the largest independent oil and gas exploration and production companies in India, Cairn India Limited was incorporated in 2006 as a subsidiary of UK-based Cairn Energy PLC. The Fig 1: Asset Base of Cairn India company was listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange of India on 9 January 2007 and its IPO was the then largest IPO in the Indian primary equity markets. Cairn Rajasthan India and its JV partners account for more than 20 percent of India’s domestic crude oil RJ -ON -90/1* WI 70% production. The company participates in different blocks/fields through Production Sharing East Coast Contracts (PSC) entered into between the Company and Government of India and other venture KG-DWN-98/2 WI 10% partner. KG-ONN-2003/1 WI 49% PKGM-1 (Ravva)* WI 22.5% Production Units: Cairn India has a total of 10 blocks in its portfolio - one in Rajasthan, two on KG-OSN-2009/3 WI 100% the west coast, six on the east coast, including one in Sri Lanka, and one in South Africa. Of these, PR-OSN-2004/1 WI 35% three are currently producing hydrocarbons and are located in Rajasthan, Cambay and Ravva with West Coast Rajasthan being the most crucial block. CB/OS-2* WI 40% MB-DWN-2009/1 WI 100% Rajasthan (RJ-ON-90/1): The Company has made a total of 40 discoveries so far with 25 Sri Lanka SL 2007-01-001 WI 100% discoveries in the Rajasthan block alone. The Mangala, Bhagyam and Aishwariya (MBA) fields, South Africa (SA) among others, constitute Cairn India’s key assets in Rajasthan. The company is the operator in this Block 1 WI 60% block and has a 70:30 joint venture partnership with ONGC. At present, the block is producing * Producing Blocks 175,000 bopd, out of which 150,000 bopd is produced by Mangala field and 25,000 bopd by Bhagyam field. Aishwarya field is expected to commence production by end of FY2012-13. WI – Working Interest (Cairn) Source: Company Website Ravva (PKJM-1): Cairn India operates in the Krishna-Godavari Basin on the Ravva oil and gas field with 22.5% participating interest. It has partnerships with ONGC, Videocon and Ravva Oil and the average gross production from the field was 36,379 bopd in FY2012. Fig 2: Gross Production (bopd) Cambay (CB/OS-2): The Company’s operations in Cambay block are centered on the Lakshmi and Gauri oil and gas fields, and the CB-X development area. It is the operator in this area with a participating interest of 40% and has partnerships with ONGC and Tata Petrodyne Limited. The average gross production from the field in FY2012 was 8,242 bopd. The crude oil from Rajasthan fields is processed at Mangala Processing Terminal (MPT). Following the processing, the crude oil is transported to distant consumer refineries through Mangala Development Pipeline (MDP) with a current capacity of 175,000 bopd. MPT to Salaya section of the pipeline currently supply crude oil to IOCL’s Panipat and Koyali refineries, and to private refiners on the west coast of India. Going forward, the company plans to de-bottleneck and augment the MDP, which is expected to add around 10% extra capacity to the pipeline. Source: Company Filings Company Strategy: The Company’s strength lies in its low operating cost and high operational uptime – resulting in high EBITDA. The company witnessed an increase of 16% YoY in average Fig 3: Shareholding pattern daily gross production and 10.7% YoY increase in EBITDA in FY2012. The company aims to produce 300,000 barrels of oil per day, subject to further investments and approvals from its Joint Venture Partner ONGC and the Government of India. The company has estimated gross in-place resource of 7.3 bn boe in the Rajasthan block and has received positive results from the EOR polymer pilot project in Mangala field. Cairn India has also made two discoveries in Sri Lanka and has signed farm-in agreement with PetroSA for exploring crude oil and natural gas in South Africa. Shareholding Pattern: Vedanta Group is the promoter of Cairn India and holds a stake of 58.85% in the company. Cairn UK Holdings Limited holds another 10.28% stake and 8.96% is occupied by other institutions. Foreign institutional investors have a holding of 16.17% and remaining 5.77% is occupied by other public shareholders. Source: Company Website UK’s Cairn Plc. sold 8% stake in Cairn India for $910 million in September 2012 bringing down its stake to 10.28%. Page 2 CFA Institute Research Challenge October 12, 2012 Fig 4: World Energy Basket World oil and gas market overview Global crude demand driven by emerging economies Oil is the most common source of energy around the world, notably accounting for 33% of the primary energy consumption basket (refer fig 4). The global demand for crude oil has increased by 14% in the last decade reaching 88.04million bopd in 2011. The major consumers being USA, China, Japan, and India. In India, however, oil accounts for 29% of the primary energy demand with coal fulfilling 53% of the primary energy demand in the country (refer fig 7). The demand for oil has been witnessing an increasing demand during the last decade especially from Non-OPEC countries like India and China.