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Accelerated Lignite Exit in Bulgaria, Romania and Greece

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Accelerated Lignite Exit in Bulgaria, Romania and Greece Accelerated lignite exit in Bulgaria, Romania and Greece May 2020 Report: Accelerated lignite exit in Bulgaria, Romania and Greece Authors: REKK: Dr. László Szabó, Dr. András Mezősi, Enikő Kácsor (chapters 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) TU Wien: Dr. Gustav Resch, Lukas Liebmann (chapters 2, 3, 4 and 5) CSD: Martin Vladimirov, Dr. Todor Galev, Dr. Radostina Primova (chapter 3) EPG: Dr. Radu Dudău, Mihnea Cătuți, Andrei Covatariu, Dr. Mihai Bălan (chapter 5) FACETS: Dr. Dimitri Lalas, Nikos Gakis (chapter 4) External Experts: Csaba Vaszkó, Alexandru Mustață (chapters 2.4, 3.2, 4.2 and 5.2) 2 The Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research (REKK) is a Budapest based think tank. The aim of REKK is to provide professional analysis and advice on networked energy markets that are both commercially and environmentally sustainable. REKK has performed comprehensive research, consulting and teaching activities in the fields of electricity, gas and carbon-dioxide markets since 2004, with analyses ranging from the impact assessments of regulatory measures to the preparation of individual companies' investment decisions. The Energy Economics Group (EEG), part of the Institute of Energy Systems and Electrical Drives at the Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), conducts research in the core areas of renewable energy, energy modelling, sustainable energy systems, and energy markets. EEG has managed and carried out many international as well as national research projects funded by the European Commission, national governments, public and private clients in several fields of research, especially focusing on renewable- and new energy systems. EEG is based in Vienna and was originally founded as research institute at TU Wien. The Centre for the Study of Democracy (CSD) is a European public policy institute with a mission to build bridges between scholars and policymakers. CSD combines research excellence with policy advocacy for piloting social innovation and institutional reforms in Bulgaria and in Europe in a number of areas, most notably energy governance and energy security, economic and legal transition, anti-corruption and security, forensics and criminology, human rights and migration. CSD has published more than 30 policy reports and briefs on energy related topics, such as conventional and green energy governance, decentralization of energy supply, energy efficiency and sustainable energy policies, involvement of consumers, public procurement in energy, energy strategy, diversification and security. The Energy Policy Group (EPG) is an independent, non-profit think tank on energy and climate policy based in Bucharest, founded in 2014. EPG aims to provide the interested public with evidence-based information and analysis on public policy, energy markets, and strategic planning. EPG has been part of several international research projects on energy markets and strategy in Romania, Southeast Europe and the Black Sea Area. In its current activity, EPG does energy policy research and analysis, consulting, teaching and publishing, as well as specialized events (conferences, workshops, and roundtables) on specific issues in the energy sector. FACETS S.A specializes in issues of energy, environment and climate and in particular, their complex interdependence and interaction under the influence of technological advances and the demands of sustainability. Founded in 2006, it has carried out a wide range of projects including environmental impact assessment, emissions trading, sustainability planning at regional/municipal level, assessment of weather and climate-change induced impacts and associated risks, forecasting energy production and demand, and RES and energy conservation development. 3 Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................... 9 1. Introduction ............................................................................................. 12 2. Regional results ....................................................................................... 14 2.1 Modelled scenarios ............................................................................... 14 2.2 Modelling Results ................................................................................ 15 2.3 Funding a just transition ................................................................... 26 3 Bulgaria ..................................................................................................... 29 3.1 Modelling results ................................................................................ 29 3.2 Just transition .................................................................................... 37 3.3 Policy conclusions ............................................................................... 39 4. Greece ....................................................................................................... 46 4.1 Modelling results ................................................................................ 46 4.2 Just transition .................................................................................... 53 4.3 Policy conclusions ............................................................................... 55 5. Romania ..................................................................................................... 59 5.1 Modelling Results ................................................................................ 59 5.2 Just transition .................................................................................... 67 5.3 Policy conclusions ............................................................................... 68 References ..................................................................................................... 73 Annex 1 – Modelling methodology and assumptions ......................................... 75 Modelling methodology ................................................................................ 75 Model description .................................................................................... 75 Modelling approach................................................................................... 76 Model assumptions .................................................................................... 77 Methodology for calculating regional funding needs for a just transition ................................................................................................................... 78 Annex 2 - Modelling results ......................................................................... 82 4 Annex 3 - Model assumptions ....................................................................... 126 List of tables Table 1 Scenario-specific 2030 RES use in Bulgaria, Greece and Romania - comparison with NECPs and EC Benchmarks ................................ 15 Table 2 Net imports in BG, GR and RO in 2020, 2025 and 2030 under the REF and REF-8 scenarios ................................................... 23 Table 3 Number of jobs lost (workers <55 years) ........................ 27 Table 4 Total funding needs in the three countries for a just transition, thousand EUR .......................................................... 28 Table 5 Net electricity import for Bulgaria in 2020, 2025 and 2030 under the REF and REF-8 scenarios ........................................... 37 Table 6 Expected job losses from a coal phase-out and government payments to compensate for lost jobs, Bulgaria .................................. 38 Table 7 Net electricity import for Greece in 2020, 2025 and 2030 under the REF and REF-8 scenarios ............................................... 52 Table 8 Expected job losses from a coal phase-out and government payments to compensate for lost jobs, Greece.................................... 53 Table 9 Net electricity import for Romania in 2020, 2025 and 2030 under the REF and REF-8 scenarios ........................................... 66 Table 10 Expected job losses from a coal phase-out and government payments to compensate for lost jobs, Romania................................... 67 Table 11 Cost of just transition per worker, thousand EUR/capita ....... 79 Table 12 Estimate of number of jobs and job multipliers from external sources ............................................................... 79 Table 13 Number of indirect job losses in Bulgaria, Greece and Romania estimated for the current project ..................................... 80 Table 14: Modelling results for Bulgaria, Reference RES, Reference CO2 price ................................................................. 82 Table 15: Modelling results for Greece, Reference RES, Reference CO2 price ...................................................................... 84 Table 16: Modelling results for Romania, Reference RES, Reference CO2 price ................................................................. 86 5 Table 17: Modelling results for Bulgaria, Reference RES, High CO2 price 88 Table 18: Modelling results for Greece, Reference RES, High CO2 price .. 90 Table 19: Modelling results for Romania, Reference RES, High CO2 price . 92 Table 20: Modelling results for Bulgaria, Reference RES, Low CO2 price . 94 Table 21: Modelling results for Greece, Reference RES, Low CO2 price ... 96 Table 22: Modelling results for Romania, Reference RES, Low CO2 price .. 98 Table 23: Modelling results for Bulgaria, Low RES, Reference CO2 price 100 Table 24: Modelling results for Greece, Low RES, Reference CO2 price .. 102 Table 25: Modelling results
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