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Studie Sicherheit 2021 Sicherheit 2021 Aussen-, Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitische Meinungsbildung im Trend Tibor Szvircsev Tresch, Andreas Wenger, Stefano De Rosa, Thomas Ferst, Céline Gloor, Jacques Robert Hrsg.: Tibor Szvircsev Tresch und Andreas Wenger Militärakademie (MILAK) an der ETH Zürich Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation Szvircsev Tresch, T., Wenger, A., De Rosa, S., Ferst, T., Gloor, C., Robert, J. (2021). Sicherheit 2021 – Aussen-, Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitische Meinungsbildung im Trend. Militärakademie (MILAK) an der ETH Zürich und Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich, Birmensdorf und Zürich. Die Reihe «Sicherheit» der Militärakademie und des Center for Security Studies sind im Internet im Volltext verfügbar: www.css.ethz.ch / www.milak.ch. Die der Studie zugrundeliegenden Datensätze sind archiviert bei der Swiss Foundation of Research in Social Science (FORS): https://forsbase.unil.ch Hrsg.: Tibor Szvircsev Tresch und Andreas Wenger Militärakademie (MILAK) an der ETH Zürich und Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich © 2021 ETH Zürich Center for Security Studies Haldeneggsteig 4, IFW 8092 Zürich E-Mail: [email protected] Militärakademie (MILAK) an der ETH Zürich Kaserne, 8903 Birmensdorf E-Mail: [email protected] Layout: Miriam Dahinden-Ganzoni, Rosa Guggenheim Schriftarten: «Adobe Garamond pro» und «Neue Helvetica» Alle Rechte vorbehalten. Die in der Reihe «Sicherheit» wiedergegebenen Auffassungen stellen ausschliesslich die Ansichten der betreffenden Autor*innen dar. ISBN 978-3-905696-77-6 ISSN 1424-5698 Sicherheit 2021 Aussen-, Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitische Meinungsbildung im Trend Tibor Szvircsev Tresch, Andreas Wenger, Stefano De Rosa, Thomas Ferst, Céline Gloor, Jacques Robert Hrsg.: Tibor Szvircsev Tresch, Andreas Wenger Militärakademie (MILAK) an der ETH Zürich und Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zürich Inhaltsverzeichnis Vorwort 7 Kurzzusammenfassung 9 Condensé 12 Sintesi 15 Executive Summary 18 Zusammenfassung der Studie «Sicherheit 2021» 21 Résumé de l’étude «Sécurité 2021» 35 Riassunto del sondaggio «Sicurezza 2021» 49 Summary of the Survey “Security 2021” 63 1 Chronologie potenziell meinungsbildender Ereignisse 2020 75 1.1 COVID-19-Pandemie – Rivalität der Grossmächte – politische Fragmentierung im Westen – anhaltende Krisen an Europas Peripherie 75 1.2 Aussenpolitik: Strategie und COVID-19 – Frieden und Sicherheit – Uno und OSZE – Verhandlungen Schweiz-EU 78 1.3 Verteidigungs- und Armeepolitik: WEA und COVID-19 – Rüstungspolitik – Auslandseinsätze – Cyber-Verteidigung 82 1.4 Innere Sicherheit: Terrorismus und Radikalisierung – Schengen, Asyl, Migration – Cyber-Sicherheit – subsidiäre Armeeeinsätze 86 2 Untersuchungsdesign 91 3 Datenbasis 93 4 Sicherheits- und Bedrohungsempfinden, Wahrnehmung der Schweiz und der Welt 101 4.1 Allgemeines Sicherheitsempfinden 101 4.2 Kriminalitätsfurcht 104 3 Sicherheit 2021 4.3 Subjektives Sicherheitsempfinden im öffentlichen Raum 107 4.4 Zukunftseinschätzung der Schweiz 110 4.5 Einschätzung der Entwicklung der weltpolitischen Lage 112 4.6 Subjekte Einschätzung der Betroffenheit verschiedener Lebensbereiche aufgrund der COVID-19-Pandemie 114 4.7 Bedrohungsempfinden: Subjektive Einschätzung der Bedrohungen zehn ausgewählter Gesellschaftsbereiche 125 4.8 Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit: Subjektive Einschätzung ausgewählter Bedrohungen 132 5 Vertrauen in ausgewählte öffentliche Institutionen und Behörden 141 5.1 Institutionen-Vertrauensindex 143 5.2 Verhältnis zwischen Vertrauen, Sicherheitsgefühl und Zukunftsoptimismus 149 6 Die Neutralität 159 6.1 Die Schweizer Neutralität 160 6.2 Allgemeine Zustimmung zur Neutralität 166 6.3 Neutralitätsfunktionen 170 6.4 Neutralität: Instrument der Aussenpolitik, finaler Wert oder Hindernis? 178 6.5 Neutralitätsauffassungen – eine Typologie 181 7 Öffnung versus Autonomie – die Wahrnehmung aussen- und sicherheitspolitischer Optionen 189 7.1 Die Aussen- und Sicherheitspolitik der Schweiz 189 7.2 Sicherheit und Interessenwahrung durch internationale Kooperation: Bindung oder Annäherung an die Europäische Union 193 7.3 Sicherheit und Interessenwahrung durch internationale Kooperation ohne institutionelle Bindung 197 4 Inhaltsverzeichnis 7.4 Sicherheit und Interessenwahrung durch internationale Kooperation: Erhöhtes Engagement in der Uno 199 7.5 Sicherheit und Interessenwahrung durch internationale Kooperation: Bereitschaft zu sicherheitspolitischen Allianzen 202 7.6 Betonung nationaler Autonomie 205 7.7 Wie viel Öffnung braucht die Schweiz? Die Kooperationstypen im Trend von 1993 bis 2021 210 8 Das Verhältnis Armee und Gesellschaft 217 8.1 Notwendigkeit der Armee 217 8.2 Ausrüstung und Ausbildung der Armee 220 8.3 Gesellschaftliche Rolle der Armee 223 8.4 Wehr- und Rekrutierungsform 225 8.5 Zufriedenheit mit der Leistung der Schweizer Armee 231 8.6 Verteidigungsausgaben 232 9 Alternative Dienstmodelle und allgemeiner obligatorischer Bürgerdienst 237 9.1 Alternative Dienstmodelle 237 9.2 Einstellung zur Einführung eines allgemeinen obligatorischen Bürgerdienstes 243 9.3 Einstellungen gegenüber Funktionen eines allgemeinen obligatorischen Bürgerdienstes 247 10 Sicherheitspolitisches Interesse 253 Literaturhinweise 259 Verwendete Literatur 259 Quellenhinweise nach chronologischer Reihenfolge zu den Daten der Erhebungsreihe «Sicherheit 2021» 272 5 Sicherheit 2021 Anhang I Methode 277 I Die Qualität der Variablen 277 II Korrelationen und Koeffizienten 277 III Cronbachs Alpha 279 IV Das Testen von Zusammenhangshypothesen mittels c2-Test 279 V Das Testen von Unterschiedshypothesen mittels Mittelwert-Tests 280 VI Clusteranalyse 281 VII Einfache (bivariate) und multivariate Regressionsanalyse 282 Anhang II Typologien 283 I Die Typologien der aussen- und sicherheitspolitischen Kooperationswilligkeit und der Neutralitätsauffassung 283 Anhang III Erhebung 2021 291 I Sicherheit 2021 – Fragebogen und Häufigkeitstabellen 291 6 Vorwort Die Studie «Sicherheit 2021» ist die 23. Ausgabe der seit 1999 unter dem Titel «Sicher- heit» erscheinenden Studienreihe. Die Studienreihe «Sicherheit» beruht auf einem Kern von Fragestellungen und Daten, die bis 1993 und zum Teil noch weiter zurückreichen. Dabei werden durch jährlich durchgeführte repräsentative Telefonbefragungen Moment- aufnahmen, Tendenzen und längerfristige Trends der aussen-, sicherheits- und vertei- digungspolitischen Meinungsbildung der Schweizer Stimmbevölkerung gemessen und aufgezeigt. Als Herausgeber*innen stellen die Dozentur Militärsoziologie der Militär- akademie (MILAK) an der ETH Zürich und das Center for Security Studies (CSS) der ETH Zürich damit der Politik, Wissenschaft und Öffentlichkeit aufbereitetes Wissen über die Einstellungen des Stimmvolkes zur Verfügung. Auch die diesjährige Ausgabe beginnt traditionellerweise mit den Zusammenfassungen der wichtigsten Ergebnisse in Deutsch, Französisch, Italienisch sowie Englisch und der «Chronologie potenziell mei- nungsbildender Ereignisse 2020». Im Anschluss werden die im Januar 2021 erhobenen Daten analysiert und im Einzelnen ausgewiesen. Ca. 70% der Studie sind wiederkehrende Fragen, welche jedes Jahr erhoben werden. Rund 30% der Fragen decken in gewohnter Weise Fragen zu aktuellen sicherheitspolitisch relevanten Themen ab. 2021 liegt der Fokus auf der COVID-19-Pandemie mit deren Auswirkungen auf ausgewählte Lebensbereiche, der Bedrohungswahrnehmung der Schweizer*innen, sowie Einstellungen hinsichtlich eines all- gemeinen und obligatorischen Bürgerdienstes für Schweizer Männer und Frauen. In Bezug auf die Fragen zur COVID-19-Pandemie ist anzumerken, dass während des Befragungs- zeitraums der Studie «Sicherheit 2021» im Januar 2021 zahlreiche Massnahmen zur Ein- dämmung der Pandemie in Kraft waren bzw. während der Befragung verschärft wurden. Die Autoren*innen und die Herausgeberschaft danken Miriam Dahinden-Ganzoni für die Erstellung des Layouts und Rosa Guggenheim für die Anfertigung der Grafiken. Sie bedanken sich bei Ernestina Soares Imoberdorf für die französische, beim Zentralen Sprachdienst Italienisch des Departements für Verteidigung, Bevölkerungsschutz und Sport (VBS) für die italienische und bei Andrew Clarke für die englische Übersetzung. Für das Korrekturlesen des Manuskripts wird Patrick Dietschi gedankt. Dank gebührt auch Oliver Roos für die Zusammenstellung und Aufbereitung der Daten für die Chronologie. Dr. phil. Tibor Szvircsev Tresch Prof. Dr. Andreas Wenger Militärakademie (MILAK) Center for Security Studies (CSS), an der ETH Zürich ETH Zürich 7 Kurzzusammenfassung Allgemeine Bemerkung: Weil die Daten der Studie «Sicherheit 2020» vor dem Aus- bruch der COVID-19-Pandemie in der Schweiz und Europa erhoben wurden, führte die Dozentur Militärsoziologie der MILAK im Juli 2020 eine Nachbefragung (NBF) durch, um mögliche Veränderungen des Sicherheitsgefühls, des Vertrauens in Institutionen und Behörden sowie den Einfluss des CORONA 20 Einsatzes der Armee messen zu können. In der hier vorliegenden Zusammenfassung wird deshalb auch bei gewissen Fragen auf die Resultate der Nachbefragung Bezug genommen. Die Daten der Studie «Sicherheit 2021» wurden zwischen dem 5. und 26. Januar 2021 erhoben. Die COVID-19-Pandemie und die damit verbundenen Einschränkungen des öffentlichen Lebens, der Brexit als auch der Sturm auf das Kapitol in Washington (06.01.2021) und die Amtsübernahme des neuen US-Präsidenten Joe Biden (21.01.2021) könnten einen Einfluss auf das Ant- wortverhalten gehabt haben. Sicherheitsempfinden und Wahrnehmung der Schweiz
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