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한글과컴퓨터 (030520 KQ) Korea / Small-Mid Cap MS 가 수익을 쥐어짤수록 한컴은 성장한다 13 June 2014 BUY

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한글과컴퓨터 (030520 KQ) Korea / Small-Mid Cap MS 가 수익을 쥐어짤수록 한컴은 성장한다 13 June 2014 BUY Initiating coverage 한글과컴퓨터 (030520 KQ) Korea / Small-mid cap MS 가 수익을 쥐어짤수록 한컴은 성장한다 13 June 2014 BUY 목표주가 30,000 원 당사는 목표주가 30,000 원을 제시하며(상승여력 21%), 투자의견 BUY 로 한글과컴퓨 현재주가 (12 June 2014) 24,800 원 터(한컴) 커버리지를 개시함. 마이크로소프트(MS)사가 MS 오피스 2013 출시를 통해 라이선스 정책을 강화하면서, 이에 대한 반대 급부로 한컴오피스 사용자가 증가할 것 Upside/downside (%) 21.0 KOSDAQ 536.14 으로 예상됨. 이와 더불어 동사는 윈도우 외에 다양한 OS 에 사용 가능한 오피스 프 시가총액 (십억원) 572 로그램/앱을 개발하는 멀티플랫폼 전략을 통해 오피스 시장에서 점유율을 높일 것임. 52 주 최저/최고 13,500 - 26,250 일평균거래대금 (십억원) 5.79 외국인 지분율 (%) 9.8 MS 의 라이선스정책 강화로 인한 수혜 최근 마이크로소프트(MS)가 라이선스 정책을 강화하면서, 점진적으로 많은 수의 MS Forecast earnings & valuation 오피스 사용자들이 한컴오피스로 교체 사용할 것으로 판단됨. 이는 한컴오피스는 Fiscal year ending Dec-13 Dec-14 E Dec-15 ED ec-16 E 매출액 (십억원) 72 94 115 127 MS 오피스와 호환이 잘되는 유일한 PC 용 오피스 프로그램이며 가격 또한 합리적이 영업이익 (십억원) 25.1 37.5 45.4 50.1 기 때문임 (MS 오피스의 가격대는 139.99~399.99 달러로 고가인 반면, 한컴오피스 당기순이익 (십억원) 19.1 29.3 36.0 40.5 수정순이익 (십억원) 19.1 28.8 35.3 39.7 는 69 달러에 불과, 국내 가격은 가정용 기준 37,400 원). 한컴오피스와 MS 오피스 EPS (원) 826 1,249 1,528 1,718 와의 호환율은 98%에 달하며, 한컴오피스는 MS 오피스의 User Interface 를 제공하 EPS 성장률 (%) 52.7 51.2 22.3 12.4 기 때문에, MS 유저들은 어렵지 않게 동일한 환경에서 한컴오피스를 사용할 수 있음. P/E (x) 24.6 19.8 16.2 14.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.2 11.2 9.0 7.6 MS 사는 오피스 2013 출시를 통해 라이선스 정책을 강화하였음. 이전 버전과 다르 배당수익률 (%) 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 게, MS 사는 MS 오피스를 고가에 출시하였음에도 불구하고 사용자가 오직 한대의 P/B (x) 3.3 3.5 2.9 2.5 ROE (%) 14.4 18.9 19.5 18.5 컴퓨터에만 오피스 2013 을 설치할 수 있도록 하였음. 더 낮은 가격대의 MS 오피스 순차입금/자기자본 (%) (48.7) (48.8) (52.8) (58.9) 365 가 있긴 하지만, 오피스 365 는 월/연간 구독형태로 1 년에 89,000 원(69.99 달 러)을 지불해야 함. MS 사는 성장이 둔화되면서 이와 같은 방식으로 라이선스 정책 Performance 을 강화한 것으로 판단됨. MS 사는 향후 더욱 엄격한 라이선스 관리에 돌입할 가능 (KRW) Price (LHS) Rel. to KOSDAQ (RHS) (%) 성이 높기 때문에 전 세계적으로 MS 사의 오피스 라이선스 정책 강화로 인해 오피스 30,000 160 대체재로서의 한컴오피스 채택이 증가할 것으로 예상됨. 25,000 140 120 20,000 100 15,000 80 한글과컴퓨터 : 언제, 어디서든, 어떤 디바이스든 상관없다 ! 10,000 60 다양한 모바일 기기가 보급되면서 윈도우 기반의 데스크탑 PC 수요가 점차 감소하고 40 5,000 20 있기 때문에 한컴은 멀티 플랫폼 전략을 통해 시장점유율을 증가시킬 것으로 예상됨. 0 0 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 한컴은 안드로이드용 한컴오피스, 씽크프리 모바일 등과 같은 다양한 오피스 프로그 램을 개발해왔음. 안드로이드용 한컴오피스는 삼성전자의 안드로이드 태블릿 PC 에 Performance 1M 3M12M 독점 공급되는 제품으로 PC 용 오피스와 거의 유사한 성능을 보유한 제품임. 씽크프 절대수익률 (%) 7.3 2.3 38.2 리 오피스는 웹 기반 오피스 프로그램으로, 클라우드에 기반하여 윈도우, 리눅스, 매 KOSDAQ 대비 상대수익률 10.1 2.8 40.1 킨토시, 안드로이드 등 다양한 OS 에서 모두 실행이 가능함. 씽크프리 모바일은 모 (%) 바일용 오피스 어플리케이션임. 당사는 삼성전자의 태블릿 PC 판매 증가에 따른 수 혜라는 측면에서 안드로이드용 한컴오피스의 성장 가능성에 주목하고 있음. MS 가 최근 오피스 모바일, 오피스 온라인과 같은 프로그램들을 적극적으로 개발하고 있기 김태성, Analyst 는 하지만, MS 사가 PC 용 오피스 제작사임을 고려할 때, 모바일/온라인 프로그램들 3774 3911 [email protected] 은 호환성 부분에서 다소 실망스러움. 이는 MS 사가 PC 버전과의 잠식효과를 우려 고훈 해 다른 종류의 오피스 프로그램이나 어플리케이션 개발에는 소홀해 왔기 때문임. 3774 3733 [email protected] 당사가 MS 오피스 온라인과 씽크프리 온라인을 비교해본 결과, 호환성은 두 프로그 램 모두 비슷한 수준인 것으로 보임. 투자의견 BUY, 목표주가 30,000 원으로 커버리지 개시 당사는 투자의견 BUY 와 목표주가 30,000 원(상승여력 21%)으로 한글과컴퓨터의 커 버리지를 개시함. 목표주가는 12M Fwd P/E 의 24 배(공정가치 P/E, COE 5.2%)를 적용하여 산출함. See the last page of this report for important disclosures 김태성, Analyst, 3774 3911, [email protected] 한글과컴퓨터 고훈, 3774 3733, [email protected] 030520 KQ 투자의견 및 밸류에이션 당사는 목표주가 30,000 원을 목표주가 30,000 원, BUY 로 커버리지 개시 제시하며(상승여력 21%), 투자의견 당사는 목표주가 30,000 원을 제시하며(상승여력 21%), 투자의견 BUY 로 한글과컴퓨터 커버리지를 BUY 로 한글과컴퓨터 커버리지를 개시 개시한다. 목표주가는 COE 5.2%(무위험이자율 2.8%, 리스크프리미엄 6.1%, 베타 0.4) 기준, 12M Fwd P/E 의 24 배를 적용하여 산출하였다. Figure 1 목표주가 산출 : 30,000 원 Cost of equity A (%) 5.2 Beta 0.4 Risk-free rate (%) 2.8 Risk premium (%) 6.1 Terminal growth rate B (%) 1.0 Target P/E C = [ 1 / ( A-B) ] (x) 24.0 2014E EPS D (KRW) 1,249 Fair value C * D (KRW) 29,976 Target price (KRW) 30,000 Current price (KRW) 24,800 Upside (%) 21.0 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 P/B 밸류에이션에 기반한 목표 주가 역시 30,000 원이 산출되었다. 이는 2014E P/B 4.2 배, sustainable ROE 18%, COE 5.2%, 영구성장률 1.0%를 적용한 결과이다. Figure 2 P/B 밸류에이션으로도 동일 목표주가 산출 Cost of equity A (%) 5.2 Beta 0.4 Risk-free rate (%) 2.8 Risk premium (%) 6.1 Terminal growth rate B (%) 1.0 Sustainable ROE C (%) 18 Target P/BV D = C / (A - B) (x) 4.2 2014E BPS E (KRW) 7,139 Fair value D * E (KRW) 30,307 Target price (KRW) 30,000 Current price (KRW) 24,800 Upside (%) 21.0 자료: 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 2 Mirae Asset Securities 2 김태성, Analyst, 3774 3911, [email protected] 한글과컴퓨터 고훈, 3774 3733, [email protected] 030520 KQ Figure 3 12M Fwd P/E 차트 Figure 4 12M Fwd P/B 차트 (x) (x) 30 4.0 3.5 +2std +2std 25 3.0 +1std +1std 20 2.5 2.0 Avg. Avg. 15 1.5 -1std -1std 1.0 10 0.5 -2std -2std 5 0.0 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 자료: WISEfn, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 자료: WISEfn, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 Figure 5 이벤트 차트 (KRW) 한컴의 MDS테크놀로지 인수 30,000 (Mar. 2014) 25,000 20,000 소프트포럼, 한글과컴퓨터 인수 15,000 (Oct. 2010) 10,000 한컴오피스 2014 출시 (Oct. 2013) 5,000 0 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 자료: 한글과컴퓨터, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 3 Mirae Asset Securities 3 김태성, Analyst, 3774 3911, [email protected] 한글과컴퓨터 고훈, 3774 3733, [email protected] 030520 KQ Figure 6 Peer 비교 테이블 Adobe Systems Company Hancom Infraware Inc Microsoft Corporation Incorporated Code A030520 A041020 MSFT-US ADBE-US Price (Local) 24,650 6,930 41 67 Market Cap. (KRWbn) 569 129 345,189 33,878 2012 66 48 74,967 4,476 Sales 2013 72 56 78,935 4,122 (KRWbn) 2014E 94 n/a 85,630 4,204 2015E 115 n/a 92,264 5,020 2012 25 9 28,445 1,197 OP 2013 25 10 27,007 457 (KRWbn) 2014E 38 n/a 28,342 828 2015E 45 n/a 30,293 1,418 2012 12 3 17,258 847 NP 2013 19 10 22,224 295 (KRWbn) 2014E 29 n/a 23,040 604 2015E 36 n/a 24,441 1,070 2012 541 148 2 2 EPS 2013 826 519 3 1 (KRW/US$) 2014E 1,249 n/a 3 1 2015E 1,528 n/a 3 2 2012 (7.2) 9.8 (26.0) 0.6 EPS growth 2013 52.7 250.9 29.2 (65.5) (% YoY) 2014E 51.2 n/a 3.9 104.8 2015E 22.3 n/a 6.1 77.3 2012 10.6 3.7 27.5 13.4 ROE 2013 14.4 11.6 30.1 4.3 (%) 2014E 18.9 n/a 26.5 8.8 2015E 19.5 n/a 24.3 15.0 2012 39.0 64.0 15.3 20.9 P/E 2013 24.6 21.2 13.4 101.4 (x) 2014E 18.5 n/a 15.2 56.4 2015E 15.2 n/a 14.3 31.8 2012 3.7 2.3 3.9 2.6 P/B 2013 3.2 2.2 3.6 4.2 (x) 2014E 3.2 n/a 3.7 5.0 2015E 2.7 n/a 3.3 4.6 2012 24.9 18.3 6.8 10.4 EV/EBITDA 2013 15.1 16.5 7.6 35.7 (x) 2014E 10.4 n/a 8.7 29.1 2015E 8.2 n/a 7.8 18.6 자료: WISEfn, FactSet, 미래에셋증권 리서치센터 주: 주가는 6 월 10 일 기준 4 Mirae Asset Securities 4 김태성, Analyst, 3774 3911, [email protected] 한글과컴퓨터 고훈, 3774 3733, [email protected] 030520 KQ Investment Thesis 한글과컴퓨터의 투자포인트는 한글과컴퓨터의 투자포인트는 1) 마이크로소프트사가 MS오피스 2013 출시 이후 라이선스 정책을 강 1) 마이크로소프트사가 MS 오피스 화하면서 점진적으로 한컴오피스의 사용자가 증가할 것이며 2) 윈도우를 넘어선 다양한 OS 기반의 2013 출시 이후 라이선스 정책을 오피스 프로그램/앱 개발을 통한 멀티 플랫폼 전략에 기반하여 시장점유율을 넓힐 수 있다는 점이다. 강화하면서 점진적으로 한컴오피스의 사용자가 증가할 것이며 1. MS 오피스 과점시장에서 환영 받는 대체 오피스 프로그램 2) 윈도우를 넘어선 다양양한 OS 기반의 오피스 프로그램/앱 최근 마이크로소프트(MS)가 라이선스 정책을 강화하면서, 점진적으으로 많은 수의 MS 오피스 사용자 개발을 통한 멀티 플랫폼 전략에 들이 한컴오피스를 사용할 것으로 판단된다.
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