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Baltics Retail Marketview 2018

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Baltics Retail Marketview 2018 Baltics Part of the CBRE affiliate Network Baltics Retail, 2018 Shopping centres are eagerly renewing in order to keep up with the latest retail trends / b / t 2,390 million sq m 55,000 sq m 394 sq m 6.0%-6.75% *Arrows indicate change from the corresponding period in the previous year Figure 1: Photo of T1 Mall of Tallinn Credit: 1 Mall of allinn • KEY POI TS Competition amon0 0rocery stores as well as home improvement retailers is intensifyin0. New and e1istin0 • In 2018 DP increased more than 3.0% y/y for the players are intensively openin0 new sites. second consecutive year in the Baltic states. • 2ar0est apparel retailers are restructurin0 portfolios to • ,he labour market continues to heat up as the increase efficiency in the brick and mortar distribution unemployment rate has decreased and salaries have channel. been hiked across the Baltics. • In 2018, a sin0le shoppin0 centre was commissioned • In 2018 Estonia observed ..7% y/y hi0her private in the Baltics. ,1 6all of ,allinn, which is located 7ust consumption e1penditure, 2atvia followed with ..3%, ne1t to the 8lemiste shoppin0 centre in ,allinn, addin0 and 2ithuania with 3.9%. 33,000 s9 m of new retail stock. • Inflation in the re0ion is e1pected to moderate at the • In April 2019, Akropole Ri0a was launched. ,he ca. 2% level in 2019 and 2020. shoppin0 centre adds 42,000 s9 m to the total retail stock. • In 2018 retail turnover increased by 4.8% y/y in 2ithuania, 3.1% in 2atvia, and ..8% in Estonia. Sales of • Prime hi0h street retail rents avera0ed at ca. E8R 30- electronic household appliances, pharmaceuticals, 40 s9 m per month. At the same time, space in prime communication, and recreation 0oods were the most shoppin0 centres avera0ed at ca. E8R 33-.0 s9 m per notable. month. • Results of the leadin0 shoppin0 centres were mi1ed . It • In 2018, investment volume in retail properties was mainly due to on0oin0 multiple refurbishments, increased by 3%. A few lar0e transactions sustained the renovations, and e1pansions. investment pace in the retail sector. Q1 2019 CBRE Research © 2019 CBRE Baltics, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network | 1 BA2,ICS RE,AI2 Baltics SPACE SUPPLY PIPELI E Part of the CBRE affiliate Network . & 1 $ & 56 L # ! ) " & 0$ "# # )$ # # " L ! $ ## # $ # $$ $ " .,1 $ # 7 '5 $ ! #$" % & 8 ! $ " & " # 56 0 ! &4$ 1 $ # " " / $ 5L: " % # % )$ ) $ # 56- $ " %$ % .,1 (- 5L: # " # % ! # . $ '( Figure 2: Shopping centre space and e(pected supply in 2017-2020 ) " 1,200 # ! L b" a % , 800 $ -- # & . SA m, B000 000 t / 0$ .,1 2 ! I 4 " 0 Lithuania Latvia Estonia L 2017 2018 2019F 2020F " # # #$ Source: CBRE Baltics, Q1 2019 Figure 3: SC stock currently under construction with a planned GL above 10,000 sq m Project Country City Type o development Year Added space, sq m Total space, sq m Alfa Latvia Riga Expansion 2019 18,300 6,,600 Origo One Latvia Riga Expansion 2019 16,,00 3,,,,0 Akropole Riga Latvia Riga New 2019 62,000 62,000 .lemiste Estonia allinn Expansion 2019 13,200 72,000 1aleri2a A3ur Latvia Riga Redevelopment 2019 29,,00 29,,00 Roboti 5 Rimi Latvia Riga New 2019 11,000 11,000 6ia 7urmala 8esigner Outlet 9I stage) Latvia Riga New 2019 1,,000 1,,000 Lasnamae Centrum Estonia allinn Expansion 201952020 ,,000 2,,000 Porto Franco Estonia allinn New 2020 32,000 00,000 6PH Home and Lifestyle Centre Latvia Riga New 2020 ,2,000 ,2,000 6PH Shopping Centre Lithuania Klaipeda New 2020 19,000 19,000 6ilnius Outlet Lithuania 6ilnius New 2020 6,,000 62,000 otal: 338,,00 Source: CBRE Baltics, Q1 2019 Q1 2019 CBRE Research © 2019 CBRE Baltics, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network | 2 BA2,ICS RE,AI2 Baltics MARKET RE TS Figure 0: Prime Shopping centre yields Part of the CBRE affiliate Network L 57 C France " 1ermany t Austria .,1 (8' & Belgium .,1 Finland Spain (-8; & # a Ireland # & 1 Portugal # $ $ Netherlands Italy 1 $ " " $ 56 Slovakia Estonia I (ESTME TS Lithuania Latvia 1reece 1 # L 57 $ 0 3 6 9 " (< Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Baltics, Q1 2019 52 & # )$ $ Figure 5: ,nvestment into the Retail Sector in the .altics " $ # h4 1,200 100 > $ " b.tL 1 # .,1 5; ' 900 7, / . .$ $ h4 # # . & 600 ,0 $ # 1:h E.R, mln # .,1 ;2 t 4 ## 300 2, C total of investments # )$ " . " #$ .# / h 0 0 %$ )$ / ?! "$ .L0 # 2006 2008 2010 2012 2010 2016 2018 .,1 5; 6 . .# / ?! Other Retail % Retail share in Baltics Retail share in Europe $ & 4 " Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Baltics, Q1 2019 $ 1 . / $ 0 1 # $ Figure 6: Retail trade growth 8 L " t " ' < ' -< 6 " ' -< ' 2-< I # $ $ 0 C,yDy $" # 2 RETAIL TRADE 0 L %$ # 201, 2016 2017 2018 $ # $ $ L 57 $ Lithuania Latvia Estonia Euro 3one @ A % $ #$ Source: Eurostat, national statistics agencies, Q1 2019 "$ )$ ' 7< ) Q1 2019 CBRE Research © 2019 CBRE Baltics, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network | 3 BA2,ICS RE,AI2 Baltics # - < . ; 7< Figure 7: Consumer spending per capita, 2011 Part of the CBRE affiliate Network # # $ E.R, B000 $ Latvia "$ Slovakia I $ # # Estonia . & # Lithuania 57 58 # Slovenia % )$ # Malta 1reece # )$ # " " % # "$ Portugal #$$ ) # Spain $B " Cyprus " Italy ## # Euro3one . % . France "$ " Netherlands #$$ Belgium " Ireland SHOPPI G CE TRES 1ermany Austria 5 $ # . % C Finland 57 " $ # Luxembourg " 0 10 20 30 > $ " (< " -< 7< 1 Source: Eurostat, CBRE Baltics, Q1 2019 # % $ # C Figure 1: Sales of 12 leading shopping centres in capital cities $ # ## " % $ 20 # # $" # $ #$" % 4 1, 5257 1 $ $" 8 $" # 10 $ " " " $ L 1 C , 5 1 t 4 # #$ # C,yDy # 52 57 & 0 h4 > $ 52 & > $ $ % 5, $ 56 $ #$" # , 510 / ## " % 2012 2013 2010 201, 2016 2017 2018 $ # # 57 6ilnius Riga allinn otal $ # # # 56 & # hB) $ % ( Note: combined data and estimations of 12 leading shopping centres " " Source: CBRE Baltics, Q1 2019 / 57 Q1 2019 CBRE Research © 2019 CBRE Baltics, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network | . BA2,ICS RE,AI2 Baltics APPAREL MARKET Figure 2: Shopping centre space supply distribution in 2011-2020 Part of the CBRE affiliate Network # % # Expansions and $ L redevelopments 57 D $ " 2 6< 31C )$ 5 5< . " 5 2< ) . # " $ " $ # # # $ I $ E 8 $" 8 $ " # New deliveries 69C % # $" # $ # # $$ $ Source: CBRE Baltics, Q1 2019 % $ L $ # %$ ## $ Figure 10: rrivals of foreign tourist # " $ 16 $ " $ & $ % $"$ 12 " $# $ " $ # "$ 8 L% b C,yDy ## 57 . $ 0 # # " 0 # )tt $ ! $ # 50 "$ $ $ $ 2013 2010 201, 2016 2017 2018 C ) )$ 8 $ # 8#8 Lithuania Latvia Estonia IFa $ Source: Eurostat, Q1 2019 $ " # # Figure 11: Revenues of the largest apparel retailers # 300 30 $ % "$ 5 # " 200 20 % $ 100 10 C,yDy & $ # h E.R, mln > $ 1 L I 56 $ 0 0 " " 5 $ C , / & 5100 510 > 0 # # 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 # 0 Apranga Baltika HEM LPP # & 1 5 # E 8$ L > $ Lithuania Latvia Estonia 1rowth 9rh scale) Source: the companies, CBRE Baltics, Q1 2019 Q1 2019 CBRE Research © 2019 CBRE Baltics, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network | 3 BA2,ICS RE,AI2 Baltics GROCERY MARKET Figure 12: Consumer basket in Euro4one and .altics Part of the CBRE affiliate Network 100 / # 0 $ ) ;( )$ # # 7, ,0 00 ) " $ # ) 8 . 55 C ,0 10 6 6 1 L #$ 6 6 9 )$ " % 2, 9 # 28 $ # / /$ # 19 0 )$ " Euro 3one Baltics 9average) 1 $ )$ - % " Food, beverages, E tobacco Recreation and culture # 55( L $ -2 $ Furnishings E maintenance Clothing and footwear L #$ 5 " # Restaurants and hotels Other 55 5(( )$ Source: Eurostat, CBRE Baltics, Q1 2019 " 0 $ 1 6( 2-< 57 Figure 13: Retail sales of home improvement goods h # % " 1, # % % $ % $ # 10 HOME IMPRO(EME T RETAIL MARKET C,yDy L 57 #$ $ , " 1 '8;< & 0 % E % # L/.& 2010 201, 2016 2017 2018 ) !$ $ # 1 (;- Lithuania Latvia Estonia .,1 ' ) Note: retail sales in audio and video eAuipmentG hardware, paints and 5 5L: glassG electrical household appliances. > $ # -;7 " Source: Eurostat, CSB Latvia, Q1 2019 / $ 56 55 L Figure 10: G5P growth $ # 6.0 > $ 2 & $ t# 6 0.0 # $ # . 4 a % & C,yDy 2.0 5L: % L $ . 5L: . $# ( & . 4 0.0 )$ & 5L: )$ 201, 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F $" % $" Lithuania Latvia # $ 5- Estonia Euro3one Source: Eurostat, Oxford Economics, Q1 2019 Q1 2019 CBRE Research © 2019 CBRE Baltics, part of the CBRE Affiliate Network | 4 BA2,ICS RE,AI2 Baltics ECO OMY Figure 15: ,nflation rates and forecasts Part of the CBRE affiliate Network L 57 05t ( < # 0 . ) 3 05t ; 7< . # ( 6< )$ ( -< 2 L 56 # .
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