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Exploring the Dynamics of Urban Development with Agent-Based Modeling EXPLORING THE DYNAMICS OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT WITH AGENT- BASED MODELING: THE CASE OF PAKISTANI CITIES by Ammar A. Malik A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy Committee: Hilton L. Root, Chair Jonathan L. Gifford Andrew T. Crooks Harvey Galper, External Reader Kenneth Button, Program Director Mark Rozell, Dean Date: Spring Semester 2015 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Exploring the Dynamics of Urban Development with Agent-based Modeling: The Case of Pakistani Cities A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University by Ammar A. Malik Master of Public Affairs Institut d’Etudes Politiques (Sciences Po) Paris Director: Hilton L. Root, Professor School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs Spring Semester 2015 George Mason University Fairfax, VA This work is licensed under a creative commons attribution-noderivs 3.0 unported license. ii DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to my loving wife, Hira. I could not have completed this project without her consistent encouragement and support. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I am grateful to my parents, Atiq and Mamuna Malik, who provided the platform on which my life is based. They gave me the moral grounding and confidence to pursue my dreams. My two children, Nuha and Mahad Malik, were the source of ultimate joy and satisfaction. Their presence in my life kept me motivated and ensured that I remained true to my goals. My late paternal grandfather, Brigadier Bashir Malik, who left us during the first year of my journey. He would be proud to see me become the first in our family to receive a doctorate. This dissertation could not have been possible without the countless hours I spent discussing complexity theory and urban development with my advisor, Dr. Hilton Root. He provided me with a solid intellectual grounding for my dissertation. From Dr. Andrew Crooks I learnt the art of academic publishing and the perfect introduction into the fascinating world of agents and simulations. Dr. Jonathan Gifford provided excellent research supervision and helped peak my interest in the link between transportation policy and economic development. The terrific student services staff at the school, Beth Eck and Shannon Williams, providing excellent support and arranged for crucial fieldwork and research travel funding. In addition to my committee, several other faculty members at the School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs provided excellent training, both inside iv and outside the classroom. I learnt a great deal from Kenneth Reinert, Jeremy Mayer, Janine Wedel, Philip Auerswald and Roger Stough. While several other PhD students helped in the development of my ideas, notable contributions were made by Sasidaran Gopalan and Jamil Afaqi. I am also grateful to fellow student Melanie Swartz for being the perfect partner in developing the initial versions of the Creative City Model. I am also indebted to Jackie Thompson for providing excellent editorial support. Before my arrival at George Mason University, my thinking was significantly influenced by former faculty members including Rasul Bakhsh Rais at LUMS, Paul Barter at the National University of Singapore and Christopher Brooks at Sciences Po Paris. I was also fortunate to have worked with fellow Sciences Po students and capstone project partners Kathleen Dominique and Valerie Remoquillo-Jenni, whose strong work ethic helped me get my first academic publication. I am also grateful to Dr. Nadeem ul Haque for providing excellent mentorship throughout the development of my ideas, particularly related to their application to Pakistan’s cities. A number of personal and family friends ensured that I always felt at home in the Washington D.C. area. Their companionship made my time here even more memorable. I am particularly grateful to Usman Khan, Haris Anwaar, Uzair Khan, Qasim Jafary, Harris Mehmood, Salman Asia and team mates at Washington Chargers Cricket Association. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... x List of Equations ................................................................................................................ xi List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................................ xii Abstract ............................................................................................................................ xiii Chapter 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research Context....................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Research Goals .......................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Research Framework ................................................................................................. 8 1.4 Dissertation Structure ................................................................................................ 9 Chapter 2: The Causes and Consequences of Global Urbanization ................................. 13 2.1 Global Urbanization: Trends and Projections ......................................................... 15 2.1.1 Megacities in the Developing World ................................................................ 22 2.2 The Causes and Consequences of Urbanization ..................................................... 26 2.2.1 Moving Toward an Urban Theory .................................................................... 30 2.3 Urbanization in Pakistan ......................................................................................... 32 2.3.1 Karachi: the Microcosm of Pakistan ................................................................ 35 2.3.1 Urban Agglomeration and Economic Productivity .......................................... 41 2.3.2 The Youth Bulge .............................................................................................. 44 2.3.3 Renewed Policy Focus on Urban Transportation ............................................. 46 2.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 49 Chapter 3: Economic Thinking on Cities.......................................................................... 52 3.1 Early Urban Theory: Markets, Transportation and Growth .................................... 54 3.2 The Alonso-Muth-Mills Framework of Urban Land-Use ....................................... 60 3.3 Agglomeration Economies and Urban Growth ....................................................... 63 vi 3.4 Evaluating the ‘Theory of the Creative Class’ ........................................................ 67 3.4.1 The Role of Human Creativity in Urban Development .................................... 70 3.4.2 Individual vs. Social Creativity ........................................................................ 72 3.4.3 Cultural Values and Creativity ......................................................................... 73 3.4.4 Florida’s Theory-Building and Research Methodology ................................... 74 3.4.5 ‘The Curse of the Creative Class’ ..................................................................... 77 3.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 80 Chapter 4: Cities as Complex Adaptive System ............................................................... 82 4.1 The Science of Modeling ........................................................................................ 84 4.2 Complexity Theory and Cities ................................................................................ 89 4.3 Modeling in Urban and Regional Studies ............................................................... 96 4.4 Traditional vs. Agent-Based Simulations ............................................................. 102 4.5 Agent-Based Modeling to Understand Cities........................................................ 106 4.6 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 108 Chapter 5: The Creative City Model ............................................................................... 110 5.1 Model Background ................................................................................................ 112 5.2 Model Description ................................................................................................. 119 5.2.1 The Agents ...................................................................................................... 121 5.2.2 Environment ................................................................................................... 123 5.2.3 Behavioral Rules............................................................................................. 125 5.2.3.1 Agent Mobility ............................................................................................. 125 5.2.3.2 Diffusion of Creativity ................................................................................
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