38 DOI: https://doi .org/10 30932/1992-3252-2020-18-6-30-45.

Strategic Planning and Economic Assessment of Development of Intermodal Transport Infrastructure THEORY

Macheret, Dmitry A., Russian University of Transport, Moscow, Russia. Titov, Ruslan A., Russian University of Transport, Moscow, Russia*.

Dmitry A. MACHERET Ruslan A. TITOV

ABSTRACT The degree of elaboration of issues of assessing the The authors set the goals: to assess the socio-­ economic efficiency of intermodal aspects is analysed, economic importance of construction of intermodal while the historical retrospective of evolution of methods transport infrastructure in the Russian Federation for its assessment within the framework of state or in modern conditions, to analyse the degree of sectoral methodological guidelines adopted in the former development of issues of assessing the economic USSR and the Russian Federation is considered. When efficiency of intermodal aspects. To achieve these analysing approaches to assessing economic efficiency inherent in a planned economic model, several effects objectives, the content of modern strategic from improvements associated with the development of documents (such as the Comprehensive Plan for transport infrastructure and organisation of operation are Modernization and Expansion of Trunk described. Against this background, the authors reveal Infrastructure, the Long-term Development the difference between former and new approaches, Program of JSC Russian Railways until 2025, the characteristic of the modern market economy. Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Through analysis and synthesis, conclusions were Federation, etc.), as well as the dynamics of drawn for each part of the study. In the final part, using container traffic volumes and results in construction a dialectical approach, the results obtained are of new and modernization of existing intermodal compared. Based on this, conclusions were made on transport infrastructure were analysed. Based on the correlation between the importance of building this, a conclusion was made about relevance, an intermodal transport infrastructure, the degree of importance, and prospects of develop ­ment of development of issues of assessing the economic intermodal transport infrastructure for both efficiency of intermodal aspects and the prospects passenger and freight transportation. for development of this research area.

Keywords: building of intermodal transport infrastructure, economic efficiency assessment, strategic development, investment projects.

*Information about the authors: Macheret, Dmitry A. – D.Sc. (Economics), Professor, Head of the Department of Economics of Transport Infrastructure and Management of Construction Business of the Institute of Economics and Finance of Russian University of Transport, Moscow, Russia, [email protected]. Titov, Ruslan A. – Ph.D. student at the Department of Economics of Transport Infrastructure and Management of Construction Business of the Institute of Economics and Finance of Russian University of Transport, Moscow, Russia, [email protected]

Article received 15.08.2020, accepted 02.11.2020.

For the original Russian text of the article please see р. 30.

• WORLD OF TRANSPORT AND TRANSPORTATION, Vol. 18, Iss. 6, pp. 30–45 (2020) he implementation of both large-­scale 5) Timely and effective response to and less costly investment projects is systemic problems that require an early T preceded by an assessment of their solution, including formation of alternative feasibility and economic efficiency . In the intermodal routes using the railway transport context of limited investment resources, of other countries . a multidimensional assessment of effectiveness In the same 2008, the Transport Strategy of investments, which should be based on of the Russian Federation [4] was adopted, a scientifically grounded methodology, covering all modes of transport (subsequently, becomes especially important . the strategy was updated) . It supplements the This study sets the following objectives: previous document with provisions: • to assess the socio-­economic importance • On introduction of single technical and of building of intermodal transport infra­ information standards and technologies, as structure in modern Russia; well as single shipping documents in the field • to analyse the degree of elaboration of of intermodal transportation . the issues of assessing the economic efficiency • On development of transportation in of intermodal aspects . containers with participation of inland water To achieve the set goals using analysis and transport . synthesis, as well as the historical method, • On the development of suburban speed conclusions are drawn for each part of the passenger transportation, including inter­ study . In the final part, using a dialectical modal, for communication between the approach, the results obtained are compared airport and the city . and the results are summed up . • On development of electronic data exchange, improvement of tariff schemes and Strategic planning customs technology . The vector of development of infrastructure • In the field of development of public projects in Russia is set by the adopted long- passenger transport: on develop­ment of term strategic documents on a national scale dedicated infrastructure for public passenger and sectoral programs . transport, urban off-street transport systems, The Strategy for Development of Railway intermodal passenger transport systems, as Transport until 2030 [1], approved in 2008, can well as on modernization and expansion of be considered as the first state transport plan rolling stock fleets . for such a long term in modern Russia [2; 3] . According to this strategy, the transport More important is its significance as a «pioneer» complex of urban agglomerations requires: program in relation to intermodal aspects . a) Creation of integrated intermodal In the field of building of intermodal transport systems, construction of comfor­ transport infrastructure, according to the table transport interchange hubs (passenger Strategy, the following was envisaged: hubs), priority conditions for public 1) In 2016–2030 organisation of transport, introduction of a single urban intermodal traffic in the direction of electronic intermodal ticket and customer-­ Mineralnye Vody airport–Mineralnye Vody– oriented tariff solutions in this area . Kislovodsk with reconstruction of railway b) Intensification of intermodal traffic of lines . electric trains between Moscow airports and 2) Increasing the competitiveness of the city, Pulkovo airport and Baltiysky railway Russian railways in the system of international station in St . Petersburg . transport corridors (ITC) by introducing c) Improving customer service through modern technologies for intermodal a full transition to processing of intermodal transportation, in particular, container block transport units at border crossings in the trains . «single window» mode based on electronic 3) Creation of a network of information date exchange . and logistics centres and development of These two strategic documents laid the 39 infrastructure for intermodal transportation . foundation for long-term development of 4) Dynamic development of intermodal intermodal transport infrastructure in Russia . transportation and development of new It is worth to note in chronological order geographic market segments . other strategic planning documents that are

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Macheret, Dmitry A., Titov, Ruslan A. Strategic Planning and Economic Assessment of Development of Intermodal Transport Infrastructure Target indicators of the program [7] in terms of the volume of transit container flow are presented in the diagram in Pic. 1.

40 2000 1880

1800 1656 1600 1358 1400 1200 1114 1000 914 750 800 615 600 505 400 200 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Pic. 1. ThePic. volume 1. The volume of transit of transit container container traffic, traffic, thousand thousand TEU units TEU [7]. units [7].

important from the point of view of development of passenger traffic provides for development of intermodal transport formation of multifunctional intermodal infrastructureBased on .the analysis of strategic documents,hubs and transport considerable hubs integrated attention with the is paid 2018 – The strategy of scientific and modern urban environment and infrastructure to intermodaltechnological aspects development of development. of Russian At theenvironment, same time, expanding it is necessary the list of services to consider Railways holding company for the period up (intermodal transportation) . operationto 2025 of and the for law the oflong advanced term until development2030 For freightof transport transportation infrastructure the program [9, pp. (White Book) [5] identified the tasks of indicated the vector towards growth in 14–15],increasing which the is level one of of customer the basic focus conditions by throughput for ensuringand transit th capacitye efficiency of the of the developing piggyback transportation, using infrastructure capable to increase the transit economy.innovative types of containers for intermodal container traffic by 4 times, including transportation for additional assortment of reducing time for transporting containers by goods,It should as well beas fornoted increasing that theseveral range ofimportant rail from projects the Far East in tothe the field western of borderintermodal goods transported . of the Russian Federation to 7 days by 2024 . transport2018 have – already Comprehensive been implemented, Plan for which2019 – contributed The strategy of spatialto the development high dynamics Modernization and Expansion of the Trunk of the Russian Federation for the period up of thisInfrastructure transportation. for the Period up to 2024 [6] to 2025 [8] provides for development of set goals and key indicators that are directly freight transport and logistics centers, an relatedThus, to theintensification first stage of interof creation­modal increaseof the in volumestransport and aand reduction logistics in time centre transport infrastructure . For example, it set of container transportation, including «Kaliningradthe terms »of anddelivery «Chernyakhovsk of transit container» has transit, been bycompleted, rail from the where Far East containers to the are traffic in the North–South direction western borders of the Russian Federation to reloaded(Krasnoe, from ports 1520 and mm border to crossings1435 mm of gauge,7 days . Antransported increase in throughputin transit capacitytrains. New North-­West–Samur), Europe–Western of the transportation routes, in speed of servicesChina of direction transit (Krasnoe–Iletsk–Ozinki–container transportationcarriage were of developedgoods, as well a asnd development launched of on the Kartaly–Petropavlovsk), West–East the container transportation market are routesdirection China– (Krasnoe,Europe–China ports andthrough border the forecasted,port of Kaliningradwhich will create and conditions South forKorea – crossings of North-­West–Naushki, the outstripping growth of exports and FinlandZabaikalsk,–South ports Korea and borderthrough crossings the ofport the ofimplementation Vostochny. ofAs the part transit of potential development of the of Russian Far East), and the average speed of Russian Federation . By 2025, the volume of «Northdelivery–South of transit» ITC, container test shipments traffic . of containerstransportation from of India export to goods, Russia carried and out Belarus 2019 – The long-term development by all modes of transport, without considering were programcarried of JSCout. Russian Experimental Railways until 2025piggyback pipeline transport,transportation will increase along by more the than route [7] contains a provision stating that 30 percent . This strategy confirmed the

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Macheret, Dmitry A., Titov, Ruslan A. Strategic Planning and Economic Assessment of Development of Intermodal Transport Infrastructure Kaliningrad–Moscow–Kaliningrad in transit through the territories of Lithuania and Belarus was organized, as well as, together with JSC FGK and CJSC Magnit, experimental transportation along the route Moscow–Novosibirsk [10].

Indicators of transportation in containers for the period 2015–2018 are characterized by sustainable growth and are presented in the form of diagrams in Pic. 2.

Pic. 2. Indicators of container traffic on the Russian railways network (compiled by the authors based on data of JSC Russian Railways). Pic. 2. Indicators of container traffic on the Russian railways network (compiled by the contents of earlier documentsauthors based as it on proposed data from on JSC the Russianroutes China–Europe–China Railways). through to eliminate infrastructural constraints of the port of Kaliningrad and South Korea– national significance, increase the availability Finland–South Korea through the port of and quality of the trunk transport, energy, Vostochny . As part of development of North– information and telecommunications South ITC, test shipments of containers from infrastructure,Evolution includingof methods through for develop assessing­ India economic to Russia and efficiency, Belarus were enshrined carried out . in officialment documentsof intermodal passenger transport Experimental piggyback transportation along infrastructure of agglomerations . the route Kaliningrad–Moscow–Kaliningrad TheTarget review indicators of ofcost the -programeffectiveness [7] in assin transitessment through methods the territories should of Lithuaniastart with terms of the volume of transit container flow and Belarus was organised, as well as, recommendationsare presented in the documented diagram in Pic in . 1government . together or industrywith JSC FGKdocuments, and CJSC highlighting Magnit, Based on the analysis of strategic along the route Moscow–Novosibirsk [10] . intermodaldocuments, aspects. considerable More attention general is paidapproaches to Indicators to assessing of transportation economic inefficiency containers are intermodal aspects of development . At the for the period 2015–2018 are characterized discussedsame time, in publications it is necessary [11, to 12]. consider by sustainable growth and are presented in operationSoviet of periodthe law of advanced development the form of diagrams in Pic . 2 . of transport infrastructure [9, pp . 14–15], which is one of the basic conditions for Evolution of methods for assessing ensuring the efficiency of the economy . economic efficiency, enshrined in official It should be noted that several important documents projects in the field of intermodal transport The review of cost-effectiveness assessment have already been implemented, which methods should start with recommendations contributed to the high dynamics of that type documented in government or industry of transportation . documents, highlighting intermodal aspects . Thus, the first stage of creation of the More general approaches to assessing transport and logistics centres located at economic efficiency are discussed in Kaliningrad and Chernyakhovsk has been publications [11; 12] . completed . There containers transported in transit trains are transshipped from flat Soviet period 41 wagons of 1520 mm gauge to those of 1435 The post-war history of emergence of mm gauge . New services of transit container methodological documents for assessing transportation were developed and launched economic efficiency began around the 1950s .

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Macheret, Dmitry A., Titov, Ruslan A. Strategic Planning and Economic Assessment of Development of Intermodal Transport Infrastructure This was due, inter alia, to creation in 1947 or special ships, coastal and other structures 42 of the State Committee for introduction of and devices that provide loading and advanced technology in the national economy unloading of ferries, special ships, transfer or of the USSR, as well as to the economic reloading to another mode of transport of reform of the late 1950s . large vehicles transported on ferries or special The documents concerned both general ships (wagons, trailers, containers, etc .) . approaches to assessing the effectiveness, for They also considered related investments in example, introduction of new technology, coastal facilities that ensure operation of inventions and improvement suggestions a ferry or other transport systems (develop­ without reference to the features of specific ment of port railway stations, highways), sectors of the national economy, or development of a ship repair base, investments considering features of an industry, for in vehicles, as well as the in freight current example, construction, road either sea assets of consignors . transport [13, p . 4], and acceleration of Transport specificity dictated the need to scientific and technological progress, compare options and assess the effectiveness including in railway transport . Besides, of capital investments, taking into account methods were approved for determining the the cost of goods in transit, which are part of economic efficiency of capital investments, the current assets of the national economy . including in railway transport and merchant The effect of accelerating delivery of goods marine [14, p . 3] . makes it possible to increase the turnover of The general principle regarding the current assets of the national economy, approaches to evaluation necessarily and in terms of its economic value is entailed calculation and justification of equivalent to a reduction in the required effec­tive­ness of capital investments in volume of capital investments [14, p . 18] . compliance with the national economic The economic effect associated with approach . The criterion of economic release of the freight assets was proposed to efficiency in the national economy was the be determined by the formula: ' '' increase in national income (in comparable CQtfr ( dd− t) ∆=E , (1) prices) in relation to the capital investments fr 365 that caused this increase . where Cfr – average price of 1 ton of freight, In the process of developing capital investment plans, the emerging indicators of roubles; economic efficiency had to be compared with Q – annual shipment of freight, t; tt'äa n d ä '' the standards and with similar indicators of dd – cargo delivery time, respectively, the efficiency of capital investments, as well before and after acceleration, days . as with indicators of production efficiency at Along with the effects in freight traffic, it the advanced enterprises of the corresponding was pointed out that it was necessary to take industries and sub-industries . into account the national economic effect of The indicator of comparative economic increasing or decreasing duration of efficiency of capital investments was the a passenger’s trip . The cost estimate of one minimum of reduced costs . saved passenger-hour in general transport From about the end of the 1970s, calculations was estimated at 10–15 kopecks, references to container transportation appear which with an average monthly salary of in transport documents assessing the a young specialist of 140 roubles [15, p . 46] economic efficiency of capital investments was 0,1% for every hour saved . in construction [14, p . 10] . So, for example, The national economic efficiency of in the composition of the capital investments capital investments in development of taken into account when determining the container, unitized loads and other economic efficiency, a group of tasks was progressive methods of transporting goods singled out for justifying coastal complexes was characterized by the following effects: for delivery of goods by large transport a) accelerating delivery of goods to facilities (ferry crossings, container terminals, consumers by considering current assets lighter carrier systems) . For it they considered associated with cargo in the process of direct investments in construction of ferries transportation;

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Macheret, Dmitry A., Titov, Ruslan A. Strategic Planning and Economic Assessment of Development of Intermodal Transport Infrastructure b) saving on packing and packaging of from introduction of a new technology of goods by direct account for specific loading and unloading operations at the conditions of transportation; container terminal in the seaport by including c) improving quality of transportation of three schemes for cargo operations was goods (safety, security, etc .) by direct account considered . for specific transportation con­ditions; The direct economic effect from d) simplification and reduction of the cost introduction of a new technology of cargo of freight forwarding and warehouse operations is determined using the formula:

operations with the consignor and consig­nee ∆E = (z1 – z2) Q2, (3) by direct account for specific conditions of where ∆E – annual economic effect, roubles;

freight shipments . z1, z2 – reduced costs per unit of product When transporting railway wagons and (work) produced using basic and new other types of vehicles on ferries or other technology, roubles;

specialized vessels, according to the Q2 – volume of products (work) produced methodological documents of that period, it with the help of new equipment in the was necessary to take into account the costs estimated year . of their maintenance during transportation From these two examples, it can be seen by sea . It was recommended to determine that initially the issues of assessing the these costs by the formula: effectiveness of containerization in Russia

Сv = Chv (tt + tfi) nv, (2) were more related to sea transport, which is

where Chv – hourly rate for keeping a car or due to the priority of international intermodal a vehicle in operation; links based on sea transportation .

tt – time of trip turnover in hours;

tfi – interval between ferries or ships in Period of modern Russia hours; Recommendations of 1994 can be deemed

nv – number of vehicles on the ferry . to be among the first documents officially Several specific examples of calculations adopted in Russia to assess the effectiveness were considered, for example, of determining of investment projects [16] . They are based the economic efficiency of capital investments on the fundamental principles and approaches when replacing conventional ships with that have been developed in world practices container ships for transportation of a given for assessing the effectiveness of investment volume of cargo . At the same time, it was noted projects, adapted for the transition to that the efficiency of capital investments in a market economy, proposed by UNIDO . construction of container ships in comparison In the Methodological Recommendations with existing vessels was high: 32 million roubles for Evaluation of Investment Projects in of capital investments and 6,8 million roubles of Railway Transport in 1998, the same operating costs at the prices of that period were indicators of economic efficiency are saved . The use of container ships instead of supplemented by natural indicators specific conventional ships scheduled for construction, to the transport industry: the degree of according to the results of calculations, provided increase in transportation service provision, an annual savings in operating costs of 1,8 throughput, saving free time, etc . million roubles, but an additional 2 million The Methodological Recommendations rоubles of capital investments were required . The on Composition and Content of Substantiating additional costs paid off due to the savings in Materials for Investment Projects [17] provide operating costs in about a year, which testified a classification of investment projects in JSC to the high economic efficiency of the introduced Russian Railways system and for the first time container ships . mention in this regard a project for organizing Two years later, in 1979, another method intermodal transportation on Sochi–Adler- was published for sea transport, where the airport–Sochi section . It is presented as an issue of intermodal transportation in example of an investment project for integrated 43 containers and other enlarged cargo development of railway infrastructure in consignments was raised [13, p . 9] . certain transport areas (sections, lines, routes, In this methodology, a specific example etc .), in implementation of which several of determining the annual economic effect sectors of the railway industry are involved .

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Macheret, Dmitry A., Titov, Ruslan A. Strategic Planning and Economic Assessment of Development of Intermodal Transport Infrastructure The economic efficiency of the project, commercial and socio-­economic, and 44 according to this document, is the essential, budgetary estimates . However, there is but not the sole criterion for assessing the a separate set of such official guidelines that effectiveness of the project . If the project does focus on budgetary and socio-­economic not have economic efficiency, other types of efficiency . efficiency are considered: technological, Thirdly, along with economic efficiency, it social, budgetary, environmental ones . is proposed to determine financial and The emergence of such projects in the technological ones . methodological documents was associated In conclusion, it should be noted that with the strategic documents of 2008, which comparison of the content of strategic and have been discussed above, where the methodological documents makes it possible emphasis was also placed on the need for to focus on specific features of strategic construction and operation of intermodal planning and economic assessment of transport infrastructure . development of intermodal transport One of the latest official documents in this infrastructure . regard is the Methodology [18], adopted by The construction and operation of the Govern­ment of the Russian Federation intermodal transport infrastructure is a priority at the end of 2019 . for development of the national economy, and According to it, assessment of the socio-­ it is given due attention in strategic documents . economic effects of an infrastructure project Analysis of strategic documents and indicators with state support should be carried out by of growth in the volume of traffic indicates the quantitative analysis of the following prospects and importance of development of indicators: intermodal transport infrastructure . • An increase in the gross domestic The study of methodological documents at product of the Russian Federation, calculated the level of the national, regional and sectoral based on an increase in gross value added, economy shows that a general approach to receipts of tax payments in connection with determining economic efficiency has been sale and import of goods (works, services), developed . At the same time, in the methodo­ as well as in connection with saving travel logical documents, using the example of time of passengers and goods, increasing construction of intermodal transport infra­ safety of passenger and cargo transportation, structure, it can be seen that specific systems, agglomeration effect and the effect of projects and objects in them are considered eliminating infrastructure constraints as without deep detailing . The assessment of a result of implementation of an infrastructure construction of intermodal transport infra­ project . structure is not given as much attention as it is • Budgetary effect, calculated as the necessary see its economic and social balance of the increase in tax and other importance . mandatory payments to the budgetary system It is characteristic that some of the of the Russian Federation in connection with methodological documents discussed above are implementation of the infrastructure project called «recommendations» or «model», thus and of the amount of state support . suggesting the need for specification with Conclusions. regard to particular conditions . This testifies to Studying the history of development of the relevance of appropriate research in the area methodological tools for assessing economic under consideration . efficiency allows us to draw the following It is advisable to develop methodological conclusions . tools for assessing the effectiveness of Firstly, the post-war history of appearance construction of intermodal transport of relevant documents begins approximately infrastructure in a more profound and versatile from the 50s of the last century and continues, manner . First of all, it is necessary to supplement undergoing a corresponding evolutionary the existing approaches to assessing economic development, consistent with changes in the efficiency with methodological tools for socio-­economic situation in the country . specialized projects, such as construction of Secondly, it is characteristic that some intermodal transport infrastructure, providing methodological documents contain both for a deeper, more detailed, comprehensive

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Macheret, Dmitry A., Titov, Ruslan A. Strategic Planning and Economic Assessment of Development of Intermodal Transport Infrastructure