Waiting for Godot

Federal Restructuring in

Dr Mara Malagodi LSE Law British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow Periodisation

1769-1846 – Shah period

1846-1951 – Rana period 1948 Constitution NOT implemented

1951-1960 – Democracy 1951 Constitution (Const. Monarchy) 1959 Constitution (Const. Monarchy)

1960-1990 – Panchayat 1962 Constitution (Absolute Monarchy)

1990-2006 – Democracy 1990 Constitution (Const. Monarchy)

[1996-2006 People’s War]

From 2006 – Peace Process 2007 Interim Constitution (Republic) 2008-2012 Constituent Assembly 1 2013 Elections for Constituent Assembly 2

Background: 2011 Census

Nepal total population = 26.5 million

123 languages spoken as mother tongues: Nepali 44.6 %

125 caste/ethnic groups Chetri 16.6 % Hill Brahmins (Bahun) 12.2 % Parbatiya (high caste Pahari Hindus)

10 religions Hinduism 81.3 % People's War (1996-2006) Key Considerations:

1. Demands for state restructuring along identitarian lines NOT new in Nepal

2. Massive impact of Maoists’ People’s War (1996- 2006) on demands for ‘Ethnic Federalism’ + Janajati

3. Nothing has really been done in terms of federal restructuring so far

November 2013 Elections

575 (of the 601) seats to Nepal’s Second CA – 30 political parties in CA2, but not yet 26 Cabinet-appointed members

(301 votes needed for a majority, BUT 401 votes needed to pass New Constitution)

First party Second party Third party Party Communist Party of Nepal (UML) UCPN (Maoist)

Leader Sushil Koirala

Leader's seat Banke - 1, Chitwan - 4 Ilam - 1. Sarlahi - 1 - 10, Siraha - 5 Last election (2008) 115 seats 108 seats 229 seats Seats won 196 seats (c.a 32.6%) 175 seats (c.a 29%) 80 seats (c.a 13%)

2,694,983 (FPTP) 2,492,090 (FPTP) 1,609,145 (FPTP) Popular vote 2,418,370 (Prop.) 2,239,609 (Prop.) 1,439,726 (Prop.)

29.80% (FPTP) 27.55% (FPTP) 17.79% (FPTP) Percentage 25.55% (Prop.) 23.66% (Prop.) 15.21% (Prop.)

+ 7.01% (FPTP) + 5.92% (FPTP) - 12.27% (FPTP) Swing + 4.41% (Prop.) + 3.33% (Prop.) - 14.07 (Prop.) Nepal: Historically a Unitary State CA Committee Proposal (January 2010) Nepal's Ethnic Mosaic

Federal Debates in Nepal

Ethnicity as basis for Nepal's federal restructuring?

'Divided Nepal' Ragini Upadhyay 2009 http://ragini- art.blogspot.com/ [email protected]