Waiting for Godot Federal Restructuring in Nepal Dr Mara Malagodi LSE Law British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow Periodisation 1769-1846 – Shah period 1846-1951 – Rana period 1948 Constitution NOT implemented 1951-1960 – Democracy 1951 Constitution (Const. Monarchy) 1959 Constitution (Const. Monarchy) 1960-1990 – Panchayat 1962 Constitution (Absolute Monarchy) 1990-2006 – Democracy 1990 Constitution (Const. Monarchy) [1996-2006 People’s War] From 2006 – Peace Process 2007 Interim Constitution (Republic) 2008-2012 Constituent Assembly 1 2013 Elections for Constituent Assembly 2 Background: 2011 Census Nepal total population = 26.5 million 123 languages spoken as mother tongues: Nepali 44.6 % 125 caste/ethnic groups Chetri 16.6 % Hill Brahmins (Bahun) 12.2 % Parbatiya (high caste Pahari Hindus) 10 religions Hinduism 81.3 % People's War (1996-2006) Key Considerations: 1. Demands for state restructuring along identitarian lines NOT new in Nepal 2. Massive impact of Maoists’ People’s War (1996- 2006) on demands for ‘Ethnic Federalism’ + Janajati 3. Nothing has really been done in terms of federal restructuring so far November 2013 Elections 575 (of the 601) seats to Nepal’s Second CA – 30 political parties in CA2, but not yet 26 Cabinet-appointed members (301 votes needed for a majority, BUT 401 votes needed to pass New Constitution) First party Second party Third party Party Nepali Congress Communist Party of Nepal (UML) UCPN (Maoist) Leader Sushil Koirala Jhala Nath Khanal Pushpa Kamal Dahal Leader's seat Banke - 1, Chitwan - 4 Ilam - 1. Sarlahi - 1 Kathmandu - 10, Siraha - 5 Last election (2008) 115 seats 108 seats 229 seats Seats won 196 seats (c.a 32.6%) 175 seats (c.a 29%) 80 seats (c.a 13%) 2,694,983 (FPTP) 2,492,090 (FPTP) 1,609,145 (FPTP) Popular vote 2,418,370 (Prop.) 2,239,609 (Prop.) 1,439,726 (Prop.) 29.80% (FPTP) 27.55% (FPTP) 17.79% (FPTP) Percentage 25.55% (Prop.) 23.66% (Prop.) 15.21% (Prop.) + 7.01% (FPTP) + 5.92% (FPTP) - 12.27% (FPTP) Swing + 4.41% (Prop.) + 3.33% (Prop.) - 14.07 (Prop.) Nepal: Historically a Unitary State CA Committee Proposal (January 2010) Nepal's Ethnic Mosaic Federal Debates in Nepal Ethnicity as basis for Nepal's federal restructuring? 'Divided Nepal' Ragini Upadhyay 2009 http://ragini- art.blogspot.com/ [email protected] .