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Devon Webinar December 2019 Global Macro the Global Industrial Cycle May Be Turning = Less Risk of Recession = Good for Equities

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Devon Webinar December 2019 Global Macro the Global Industrial Cycle May Be Turning = Less Risk of Recession = Good for Equities Devon Webinar December 2019 Global macro The global industrial cycle may be turning = less risk of recession = good for equities Global PMI and OECD Industrial Production China PMI and New Orders Source: GS For the 2 informed investor. New Zealand economic outlook Business confidence bounces off the floor ANZ New Zealand Business Outlook Source: ANZ For the 3 informed investor. Australian economic outlook Australia GDP subdued and consumers not responding to strong house price growth just yet Australian real GDP growth Australian house prices Source: UBS, ABS For the 4 informed investor. New Zealand market looks expensive vs. global peers… Price to Earnings Multiple For the 5 informed Source: Forsyth Barr investor. …market composition shows influence of FPH and Ryman Market PEs adjusted to NZX composition 27x 25x 23x 21x 19x 17x 15x 13x mth forward PE (adjusted) mth forward 11x 12 9x 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 S&P 500 MSCI DM S&P/NZX 50 S&P/ASX 200 FTSE For the 6 informed Source: Forsyth Barr investor. Australia too has seen significant P/E expansion ASX change in price to earnings multiples by sector YTD For the 7 informed Source: JP Morgan investor. Drivers of NZ market narrowly focused Month 3 months Y.T.D. 1 Year 2 Years p.a. 3 Years p.a. 5 Years p.a. Inception p.a. S&P NZ High Dividend Index -0.07% -2.24% 20.26% 19.80% 14.33% 11.85% 12.42% 13.87% S&P NZX50 Gross 4.90% 5.20% 28.43% 28.25% 17.57% 17.95% 15.84% 15.84% Relative Performance -4.98% -7.44% -8.18% -8.46% -3.24% -6.09% -3.42% -1.97% Returns to 29/11/2019. For the 8 informed Source: Devon investor. Australia the same story Month 3 months Y.T.D. 1 Year 2 Years p.a. 3 Years p.a. 5 Years p.a. Inception p.a. FTSE Aust. High Yield Index 1.99% 3.59% 22.90% 21.51% 6.92% 9.80% 6.60% 8.73% S&P ASX 200 Acc. Index 3.28% 4.80% 26.13% 25.98% 11.70% 12.66% 9.90% 10.53% Relative Performance -1.29% -1.21% -3.23% -4.46% -4.78% -2.86% -3.30% -1.80% Returns to 29/11/2019. For the 9 informed Source: Devon investor. a2 Milk Resetting expectations – channel shift is underway Infant Formula Sales by Channel 400.0 40.0% 2H17 Guidance 8.0% 350.0 35.0% 16.4% 300.0 30.0% 75.6% 2H19 250.0 25.0% ANZ CBEC MBS 200.0 20.0% 17.7% 150.0 15.0% 22.9% 59.3% 100.0 10.0% 50.0 5.0% ANZ CBEC MBS 0.0 0.0% 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 1H20 For the ANZ CBEC MBS EBITDA margin (RHS) 10 informed investor. Amcor – positioned to benefit from packaging transition Source: Amcor For the 11 informed investor. Metlifecare The “deep” value opportunity in the sector Price / Net Tangible Asset per Share (P/NTA) 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 - 6 months - 3 months current Metlifecare Summerset Ryman Source: Devon, Company data For the 12 informed investor. Devon Trans-Tasman Portfolio Company Name Country % Fund CSL AU 5.5 Asset allocation Spark NZ 5.5 Contact Energy NZ 5.5 National Australia Bank NZ 4.8 Aristocrat Leisure AU 4.0 Metlifecare NZ 3.8 Fisher & Paykel Healthcare NZ 3.8 BHP NZ 3.5 Suncorp AU 3.3 Atlas Arteria AU 3.3 Vista Group NZ 3.0 Rio Tinto AU 3.0 Australia New Zealand Cash Z Energy NZ 3.0 EBOS NZ 2.8 News Corp AU 2.5 For the 13 informed investor. Devon Dividend Yield Fund Company Name Position % Spark New Zealand Limited 5.68% Asset allocation Meridian Energy Limited 5.50% Contact Energy 5.20% Z Energy 4.59% National Aust. Bank 4.47% BHP 3.85% Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield 3.81% Sydney Airport 3.79% Scentre Group 3.72% Sky City 3.61% Atlas Arteria 3.59% Air New Zealand Limited 3.38% Kiwi Property Group Limited 3.28% Suncorp Group Ltd 3.26% NZ AU Cash Chorus Limited 3.19% For the 14 informed investor. Devon Alpha Portfolio Company Country % Fund CSL AU 7.0 Asset allocation Z Energy NZ 6.5 Aristocrat AU 6.4 Contact Energy NZ 6.3 EBOS NZ 6.3 Spark NZ 6.0 News Corporation AU 5.0 James Hardie AU 5.0 NAB AU 4.5 NZ AU Cash For the 15 informed investor. Devon Australian Portfolio Company Name Country % Fund CSL AU 8.0 Asset allocation BHP AU 7.0 NAB AU 6.3 Aristocrat Leisure AU 5.0 Westpac AU 5.0 Suncorp AU 4.5 Rio Tinto AU 4.3 Woodside AU 4.0 Atlas Arteria AU 3.5 Scentre Group AU 3.5 Newscorp AU 3.3 Australia Dual listed Cash Macquarie AU 3.0 Amcor AU 3.0 Vista Group AU 3.0 ANZ AU 3.0 For the 16 informed investor. INFORMATION AND DISCLAIMER: This document is not a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) under New Zealand law or under any other law. It is for information purposes only and contains summarised information. Accordingly, this document neither purports to be exhaustive nor contains all of the information which a prospective investor or the recipient may require to make an investment decision. This document does not contain all of the information which would otherwise be required by New Zealand law or any other law to be disclosed in a PDS or similar disclosure document required under foreign law. Prospective investors should inform themselves as to any applicable legal requirements and taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which might be relevant. A PDS for the fund/s mentioned in this presentation is available free from Devon Funds Management Limited. Investors should read and understand the PDS for the relevant fund(s) in which they invest and satisfy themselves they understand all the terms and conditions of investment in the fund/s. The information in this document is not intended to be advice. In preparing this document, Devon Funds Management Limited did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. Devon Funds Management Limited recommends that potential investors consult their financial adviser and obtain professional financial advice on their individual requirements before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments in any of the Devon Funds are subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and capital invested. Neither Devon nor any related company of Devon, guarantees any particular rate of return on, or the performance of, the Devon Funds, nor do they guarantee the repayment of capital from the Devon Funds. For the informed investor..
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