BBC Attitude Survey 2006
BBC Hearts and Minds November 2006
Full Results
Who Took Part? Key Statistics
Who Took Part? Key Statistics
1,100 persons in total responded to the survey.
Interviews took place across all 18 Constituencies and 26 District Council Areas of Northern Ireland (43 sampling points in total).
Fully representative results of Northern Ireland adult population in terms of age, gender, religion, geography and social class.
Sex breakdown - Male (49%), Female (51%).
Age breakdown - 18-24 (19.7%), 25-34 (20.2%), 35-44 (20.1%), 45-59 (20.7%), 60+ (19.1%).
Socio-economic groupings - ABC1 (38.8%), C2DE (60.7%), refused (0.5%).
Religion breakdown - Protestant (56.2%), Catholic (43.8%).
Polling took place during the 27th - 30th October 2006.
Margin of Error 2.95 %.
The Results
Each question is now analysed. Firstly, the total result and all percentages are listed. This is followed by the Unionist and Nationalist split.
Note: The Unionist/Nationalist/Other profile is based on the responses provided at ‘Question 9’ - ‘If an election were held tomorrow to elect a new assembly, which of these parties would best represent your views?’
Q1. Do you think that Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness will be installed as shadow first minister and deputy first minister, respectively, by 24th November?
% TOTAL UNIONIST NATIONALIST OTHER
Base: 1,099 584 439 66
Yes 31.0 33.4 28.2 31.8
No 69.0 66.6 71.8 68.2
Q1. Do you think that Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness will be installed as shadow first minister and deputy first minister, respectively, by 24th November?
% UUP SDLP DUP SF Alliance* Other Other Other* Unionist* Nationalist*
Base: 195 185 336 221 38 53 33 28
Yes 40.5 35.1 29.5 24.4 23.7 32.1 15.2 42.9
No 59.5 64.9 70.5 75.6 76.3 67.9 84.8 57.1
* Note small bases
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q2. Do you believe the Northern Ireland Assembly will be fully operational by 26th March 2007?
% TOTAL UNIONIST NATIONALIST OTHER
Base: 1,099 584 439 66
Yes 37.3 35.4 40.1 39.4
No 62.7 64.6 59.9 60.6
Q2. Do you believe the Northern Ireland Assembly will be fully operational by 26th March 2007?
% UUP SDLP DUP SF Alliance* Other Other Other* Unionist* Nationalist*
Base: 195 185 336 221 38 53 33 28
Yes 40.0 44.9 33.6 38.0 28.9 30.2 27.3 53.6
No 60.0 55.1 66.4 62.0 71.1 69.8 72.7 46.4
* Note small bases
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q3. Do you support the St. Andrews Agreement?
% TOTAL UNIONIST NATIONALIST OTHER
Base: 1,095 582 437 66
Yes 54.3 48.5 61.8 60.6
No 22.8 26.1 19.5 15.2
Don’t know 22.8 25.4 18.8 24.2
Q3. Do you support the St. Andrews Agreement? Don’t knows excluded
% TOTAL UNIONIST NATIONALIST OTHER
Base: 839 434 355 50
Yes 70.6 65.0 76.1 80.0
No 29.4 35.0 23.9 20.0
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q3. Do you support the St. Andrews Agreement?
% UUP SDLP DUP SF Alliance* Other Other Other* Unionist* Nationalist*
Base: 195 183 335 221 38 52 33 28
Yes 51.8 71.6 46.6 57.9 63.2 48.1 33.3 57.1
No 19.0 9.8 31.9 23.1 13.2 15.4 48.5 17.9
Don’t know 29.2 18.6 21.5 19.0 23.7 36.5 18.2 25.0
* Note small bases
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q4. Do you think a fresh assembly election is necessary to form a new devolved government?
% TOTAL UNIONIST NATIONALIST OTHER
Base: 1,081 576 430 65
Yes 48.0 45.5 53.5 32.3
No 52.0 54.5 46.5 67.7
Q4. Do you think a fresh assembly election is necessary to form a new devolved government?
% UUP SDLP DUP SF Alliance* Other Other Other* Unionist* Nationalist*
Base: 192 184 334 214 37 50 32 28
Yes 51.6 50.5 41.3 54.2 29.7 50.0 65.6 35.7
No 48.4 49.5 58.7 45.8 70.3 50.0 34.4 64.3
* Note small bases
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q5. The Assembly at Stormont has been suspended for some time. Do you think that Northern Ireland has been better or worse off without Devolution?
% TOTAL UNIONIST NATIONALIST OTHER
Base: 1,094 582 436 66
Better Off 5.8 6.7 3.2 13.6
Worse Off 56.3 54.3 59.6 53.0
No real change 37.9 39.0 37.2 33.3
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q6. If no deal is done by November 24, what do you think should happen next?
% TOTAL UNIONIST NATIONALIST OTHER
Base: 1,096 583 438 65
Another attempt to start Devolution in 2007 29.4 36.9 18.9 33.8
Continuation of Direct Rule - long-term 18.2 27.6 5.9 15.4
Joint authority over Northern Ireland by London and Dublin 17.1 4.1 35.8 7.7
Increased North/South cooperation 9.6 1.5 19.4 13.8
Deadlines should be extended until Christmas to give politicians more time 25.7 29.8 19.9 29.2
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q7. Do you think the St. Andrews Agreement has weakened or strengthened Northern Ireland’s position within the UK?
% TOTAL UNIONIST NATIONALIST OTHER
Base: 1,097 582 439 66
Strengthened 21.9 27.0 15.3 24.2
Neither strengthened nor weakened 55.1 51.0 59.0 62.1
Weakened 23.1 22.0 25.7 13.6
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q8. Do you think Northern Ireland will still be part of the United Kingdom in 2020?
% TOTAL UNIONIST NATIONALIST OTHER
Base: 1,096 582 438 66
Yes 64.5 82.3 38.1 81.8
No 35.5 17.7 61.9 18.2
Q8. Do you think Northern Ireland will still be part of the United Kingdom in 2020?
% UUP SDLP DUP SF Alliance* Other Other Other* Unionist* Nationalist*
Base: 195 185 335 220 38 52 33 28
Yes 81.0 59.5 83.9 23.6 81.6 76.9 15.2 82.1
No 19.0 40.5 16.1 76.4 18.4 23.1 84.8 17.9
* Note small bases
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Tracking - Do you think Northern Ireland will still be part of the United Kingdom in 2020?
% UNIONIST NATIONALIST
February 1998 Yes 69.0 49.8 No 31.0 50.2
March 1999 Yes 61.6 38.4 No 38.4 61.6
May 2000 Yes 61.0 45.1 No 39.0 54.9
September 2001 Yes 66.9 39.8 No 33.1 60.2
October 2002 Yes 65.5 37.6 No 34.5 62.4
November 2006 Yes 82.3 38.1 No 17.7 61.9
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Tracking Question - Do you think Northern Ireland will still be part of the United Kingdom in 2020? 100
90
80 82.3
70 69 66.9 65.5 60 61.6 61
Nationalist 50 49.8 Unionist 45.1 40 38.4 39.8 37.6 38.1 30
20 % stating yes 10
0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 February March May September October November
Q9. If an election were held tomorrow to elect a new assembly, which of these parties would best represent your views?
BASE: 1,100 TOTAL TOTAL % %
Ulster Unionist Party 17.7 Northern Ireland Unionist Party 1.4
SDLP 16.8 Republican Sinn Fein 2.4
Democratic Unionist Party 30.6 32 Country Sovereignty Committee 0.6
Sinn Fein 20.1 Conservative 0.5
Alliance 3.5 Green Party 2.1
Progressive Unionist Party 1.6 Don’t know/no party would represent my views 0.9
UK Unionist 1.8
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q9. Which of the following groupings/parties would best represent your views?
All All Unionist Nationalist % % %
Base: 1,090 TOTAL Base: 585 TOTAL Base: 439 TOTAL
Unionist 53.7 UUP 33.3 SDLP 42.1
Nationalist 40.3 DUP 57.6 SF 50.3
Other 6.1 UKU 3.4 RSF 5.9
PUP 3.1 32CSC 1.6
NIUP 2.6
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q10. DUP VOTERS ONLY. Should the DUP enter into government with Sinn Fein?
% DUP
Base: 329
Now without any preconditions 7.3
When Sinn Fein signs up to policing 45.6
Only if the IRA Army Council is disbanded 24.9
They should never share power 22.2
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q11. SINN FEIN VOTERS ONLY. Should the Sinn Fein sign up to policing?
% Sinn Fein
Base: 214
Immediately 7.5
Only after the endorsement of an Ard Fheis 51.4
Only after the Assembly is fully restored 22.9
Never 18.2
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q12. ALL UNIONIST ONLY. Ian Paisley is 80. When he retires, who would you like to see lead the DUP?
BASE: 565 TOTAL TOTAL % %
Peter Robinson Gregory Campbell 32.0 7.1
Nigel Dodds Jeffrey Donaldson 12.7 19.3
Jim Allister Other 5.0 1.2
Ian Paisley Jnr. 22.7
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
Q12. ALL UNIONIST ONLY. Ian Paisley is 80. When he retires, who would you like to see lead the DUP?
% UUP DUP Other Unionist*
Base: 187 329 49
Peter Robinson 33.7 33.1 18.4
Nigel Dodds 14.4 10.6 20.4
Jim Allister 7.5 3.3 6.1
Ian Paisley Jnr 17.6 25.5 22.4
Gregory Campbell 7.5 6.4 10.2
Jeffrey Donaldson 17.1 20.1 22.4
* Note small base
Please note data excludes ‘not answered’ and ‘refused’
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