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WORSHAM-DOCUMENT-2019.Pdf Democracy and the Fallacy of the Post-Conflict Era in Northern Ireland The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Worsham, Nicole A. 2019. Democracy and the Fallacy of the Post- Conflict Era in Northern Ireland. Master's thesis, Harvard Extension School. Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:42004239 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA Democracy and the Fallacy of the Post -Conflict Era in Northern Ireland Nicole A. Worsham A Thesis in the Field of International Relations for the Degree of Master of Liberal Arts in Extension Studies Harvard University May 2019 © 2019 Nicole A. Worsham Abstract While Northern Ireland has experienced a period of relative peace since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, entrenched, age-old tensions persist between those of opposing political persuasions, and between those of different religions. Those tensions continue to manifest themselves in ways which disprove the notion that Northern Ireland is in a post-conflict era. Further, demographic shifts, social changes, and external pressures make the status quo in Northern Ireland untenable. Profound uncertainty over Brexit now threatens the structure and foundation of government, and, perhaps of more immediate concern, the devolved local Executive and Assembly of Northern Ireland have collapsed, with little evidence that local government may be restored in the near term. The examination of these issues is pursued through a multidisciplinary approach, incorporating historical perspective, analysis of laws and treaties, political demography, a comparison between major party platforms, and quantitative analysis of voting trends and shifting norms identified through sentiment polling. The conclusions drawn from this research demonstrate that, while Northern Ireland continues to exist in a state of unrest in ways not dissimilar from those of the past, change is now inevitable. New pressures and new challenges will soon force change as Northern Ireland attempts, again, to achieve a truly post-conflict state. Acknowledgments Foremost, I wish to thank US Ambassador (Ret.) and Harvard Kennedy School professor Nicholas Burns for his willingness to direct this thesis. I must also thank Dr. Doug Bond for his support, patience, and indispensable guidance throughout this process. I wish also to thank Dr. Peter Der Manuelian, professor of Egyptology and director of the Harvard Semitic Museum, for inspiring me to pursue this endeavor despite considerable obstacles. I could not have completed this project without the support of my Harvard cohort, US Air Force veteran Catherine Williams, who supported me in academic partnership during all phases of this project. Lastly, I wish to acknowledge the people of Ireland, from all walks of life, who have worked to pursue a just and peaceful way forward. iv Table of Contents Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. iv List of Tables .................................................................................................................... vii List of Figures .................................................................................................................. viii Chapter I. An Introduction: The Good Friday Agreement and Beyond ..............................1 Religion ........................................................................................................3 Partition ........................................................................................................5 The Modern Era .........................................................................................10 The Good Friday Agreement .....................................................................14 Chapter II. Brexit ...............................................................................................................21 Representation............................................................................................24 The Communities and Our Abiding Assumptions .....................................26 Brexit in the Context of the Good Friday Agreement................................33 Legal Challenges ........................................................................................34 Chapter III. Stormont .........................................................................................................41 Sinn Féin and the DUP ..............................................................................42 The Personalities ........................................................................................46 The Collapse of Stormont Brings Yet More Change .................................51 Examining the Assembly Election Results ................................................55 Chapter IV. Changing Demographics, Changing Tides ....................................................66 Demographic Shifts and Evolving Social Issues .......................................66 v Identity .......................................................................................................71 Political Activism, Military, and Paramilitary Activity .............................79 Chapter V. A Way Forward ...............................................................................................89 Protection of Human Rights...................................................................................89 The Future of the Good Friday Agreement ............................................................93 Conclusion .............................................................................................................98 Bibliography ....................................................................................................................101 vi List of Tables Table 1. Final Brexit referendum results ...........................................................................23 Table 2. Brexit referendum results by region ....................................................................26 Table 3. Brexit referendum results from selected assembly areas in Northern Ireland .....27 Table 4. Religious identification and the Remain vote in select constituencies ................30 Table 5. Northern Ireland Assembly election results.........................................................59 Table 6. Comparison of party manifestos from the 2016 Assembly election ....................60 Table 7. National identity by religious affiliation: British and Irish..................................73 Table 8. National identity by religious affiliation: British and Northern Irish ..................74 vii List of Figures Figure 1. DUP-sponsored pro-Brexit ad on Facebook.......................................................56 Figure 2. “Peace wall” .......................................................................................................77 Figure 3. Military formation to mark the centenary of the Easter Rising ..........................80 Figure 4. Military parade to mark the centenary of the Easter Rising ...............................81 Figure 5. Nationalist groups appear in the Easter Rising centenary parade ......................84 viii Chapter I. An Introduction: The Good Friday Agreement and Beyond Ireland is a unique case. Countries around the world have changed borders, changed hands, changed demographics, changed governments, and changed history. All of these things have happened in Ireland in just the past century. To be sure, many other regions have experienced prolonged periods of unrest, and even open division and bigotry, similar to what has transpired in the past few hundred years of Irish history. There are, however, two things which differentiate the Irish case from the rest of the world: Ireland, most notably Northern Ireland, is essentially the last bastion of the age- old Protestant v. Catholic divide in Western Europe, and, despite numerous, well- meaning attempts to the contrary, is losing its hold on any kind of meaningful power- sharing form of devolved government. This thesis asserts that the status quo in Northern Ireland is not sustainable and the growing instability caused by current events makes significant change in Northern Ireland inevitable. What’s more, the oft-repeated refrain that Northern Ireland now exists in a post-conflict era is false. The Good Friday Agreement of 1998, which ostensibly guaranteed the peace, is now under strain, with some calling for an entirely new agreement despite years of negotiations and a tremendous effort expended to achieve an accord in the first place. When considering the history of Ireland as a whole, it would be a great disservice to attempt to sum up hundreds of years of that history here. However, in order to understand how Northern Ireland arrived at its current state, one must first understand how the structure of government in Northern Ireland came to be. Through this lens of history, this thesis examines the ways in which instability has been made manifest in modern Northern Ireland through an examination of the implications of the Brexit referendum, the collapse of the power-sharing Executive in Northern Ireland, and an analysis of societal trends and shifting demographics
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