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E.V. Koposov, I.S. Sobol, A.N. Ezhkov PREDICTION of FORMATION of ABRASION and LANDSLIDE HAZARD SHORES of the VOLGA RESERVOIRS T

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E.V. Koposov, I.S. Sobol, A.N. Ezhkov PREDICTION of FORMATION of ABRASION and LANDSLIDE HAZARD SHORES of the VOLGA RESERVOIRS T E.V. Koposov, I.S. Sobol, A.N. Ezhkov PREDICTION OF FORMATION OF ABRASION AND LANDSLIDE HAZARD SHORES OF THE VOLGA RESERVOIRS The coastline of reservoirs of Volga Сascade has a total length of more than 11,000 km. According to various estimates about 37—48 % of total length of the banks are the banks, breaking down due to abrasion. The length of coastline of reservoirs of Volga Сascade within the boundaries of settlements is 985 km, including those in the major cities 442 km. The greatest evo- lutionary destruction banks are exposed to is avalanche-crumbling the shore of abrasion. The most dangerous of unpredictable behavior is landslide coast. The Gorky reservoir in the forthcoming decade is expected to be subjected to reformation abrasion in his lake part with the average intensity of 0.47—0.10 m/year. For the period of exploitation Cheboksary reservoir from 1981 to 2011 averages of observed speed retreat edge of the abrasion shores amounted to 1.2—0.2 m/year. Large landslides on the Volga River confined to the high slopes of the right bank, folded Upper, Upper Jurassic, Lower Cretaceous deposits, are most common in the Gorky, Cheboksary, Kuibyshev, Saratov, Volgograd reservoir. Development of landslide Sursko-Volga slope in Vasil’sursk is going on from the beginning of observations (1523). In the twentieth century significant increase in landslides observed appeared in 1913—1914, 1946—1948, 1979—1981 (1981 is the year when Cheboksary reservoir had been filled to the level of 63.0 meters). Research method of fractal analysis of landslide activity on the right bank of the Volga River in con- nection with the periods of solar activity have shown that the period 2008—2019 should be characterized by a reduced number of developing landslides, although in 2012 and 2017—2019 were perhaps the years with mean rates. This is confirmed by the data for 2012 for the city of Nizhny Novgorod. Landslides does not reveal the general tendency to decay with time. The problem of protection from destruction sites and sliding abrasion shores existing reservoirs does remain actual. Designed are methods to help forecast its decision in the present conditions, taking into account economic, social and environmental factors. Key words: Volga reservoirs, banks, landslide movement, fractal analysis, prognostic estimations of abrasion. References 1. Chernyaev A.M. Voda Rossii. Vodohrahnilischa [Russian Water. Reservoirs]. Ekaterinburg, “Aqua-Press” Publ., 2001, 700 p. 2. Debol’skii V.K. Volzhskiye berega [Volga shore]. Ekologiya I zhizn [Ecology and Life]. 2000, no 1, pp. 44—47. 3. Federalnoye agentstvo vodniyh resursov [Federal Agency of Water Resources]. Moscow: Ministerstvo prirodniyh resursov [Ministry of Natural Resources]. 2006, 24 p. 4. Thieler E.R., Pilkey O.H., Yong R.S. et al. The use of mathematical models to predict beach behavior for U.S. coastal engi- neering: a critical review. J. Goastal res., 2000. V. 16 (1). Pp. 48—70. 5. Cooper J.A.G., Pilkey O.H. Alternatives to the mathematical modeling of beaches. I. Coastal Res. 2004. V. 20, № 3. pp. 641—644. 6. Sobol I.S., Khokhlov D.N. Modifikatciya metoda E.G. Kachugina dliya variyantnogo komputernogo prognoza pereformiro- vahiya abraziyonniyh beregov ekspluatiruemiyh ravninniyh vodokhranilisch [Modification of Kachugina’s method for alternate com- puter predictions reshaping scarp exploited lowland reservoirs]. Vestnik MGSU [Proceedings of Moscow State University of Civil Engineering]. 2012, no. 10, pp. 281—288. 7. Koposov E.V. Metodologicheskoe obespecheniye ekologicheskoy bezopasnosti stroitelstva na urbanizirovanih territoriyah podverzhenniyh vozdeystviyu opolzneviyh processov [Methodological support for sustainable construction in urban areas subject to landslides]. Vestnik MGSU [Proceedings of Moscow State University of Civil Engineering]. 2012, no. 3, pp.138—143. 8. PLAXIS Versions. Scientific material models dynamic manual. RBY Brink-greve, W. Breere. Delft University of Technology Plaxis bv, The Netherlands, 2004. 9. Dabees M.A., Kamphuis J.W. NLINE: Efficient modeling of 3-D beach change. I.Coastal Eng., ASCE Conf. Proceed. V.4 Sydney, Australia. 2000. pp. 2700—2713. 10. World declaration. Water storage for Sustainable Development. ICOLD, ICID, IHA, IWRA. Approved on 5-th June 2012. Kyoto. Japan. Available at: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/World-Declaration_Water-Storage- for-Sustainable-Development.pdf. Date of access: March 20, 2013. About the Authors: Koposov Eugeniy Vasil’evich — Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Rector of Nizhny Novgorod State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering (NNGASU), holder of the International UNESCO Chair “Ecologically safe de- velopment of a large region — the Volga basin”, Federal State Budget Education Institution of Higher Professional Education “Nizhny Novgorod State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering” (NNGASU), 65, Iljinskaya Str., Nizhny Novgorod, 603950, Russian Federation, +7(831)434-02-91, [email protected]; Sobol Ilya Stanislavovich — Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Hydrotechnical construc- tion, Dean Faculty of Civil Engineering, Federal State Budget Education Institution of Higher Professional Education “Nizhny Novgorod State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering” (NNGASU), 65, Iljinskaya Str., Nizhny Novgorod, 603950, Russian Federation, +7(831)430-42-89,[email protected]; Ezhkov Alexei Nikolaevich — Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Hydrotechnical Construction, Federal State Budget Education Institution of Higher Professional Education “Nizhny Novgorod State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering” (NNGASU), 65, Iljinskaya Str., Nizhny Novgorod, 603950, Russian Federation, +7(831)430- 42-89, [email protected]. For citation: Koposov E.V., Sobol I.S., Ezhkov A.N. Prognozirovanie abrazionnoy i opolznevoy opasnosti poberezhiy Volzhskikh vodokhranilishch [Peculiar Predicting of Formation of Abrasion and Landslide Hazard Shores of the Volga Water Reservoirs]. Vestnik MGSU [Proceedings of Moscow State University of Civil Engineering]. 2013, no. 6, pp. 170—176. .
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