Program / Programme

World Weather Open Science Conference 2014 August 16-21, 2014 Montréal, Canada

Conférence scientifique publique mondiale sur la météorologie 2014 16 au 21 août 2014 Montréal, Canada

Program / Programme

Co-organized by / Co-organisée par :

National Research Conseil national Council Canada de recherches Canada Our Sponsors Nos commanditaires World Weather Open Science 2014

Gold / Or

Silver / Argent

Bronze

Benefactors / Bienfaiteurs Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada

Table of Contents Table des matières Organization...... 3 Organisation...... 3 International Organizing Committee...... 3 Comité organisateur international...... 3 Science Program Committee...... 5 Comité du programme scientifique...... 5 User, Application & Social Science Comité du programme des utilisateurs, Program Committee...... 5 applications et sciences sociales...... 5 Local Organizing Committee...... 6 Comité local d’organisation...... 6 Conference Management Office...... 6 Bureau de gestion de la conférence...... 6 Welcome Message...... 7 Message de bienvenue...... 8 Online Mobile App and E-Book of Abstracts...... 9 Application mobile et résumés en ligne...... 9 Instructions to Presenters...... 11 Instructions aux présentateurs...... 11 Session Chairs...... 11 Présidents de séances...... 11 Speakers...... 11 Conférenciers...... 11 Audio-Visual Equipment...... 11 Équipement audio-visuel...... 11 Computer Presentation Directives concernant les présentations Guidelines...... 11 sur ordinateur...... 11 Poster Presenters...... 12 Auteurs d’affiches...... 12 Key to the Numbering System...... 12 Clé du système de numérotation...... 12 General Information...... 13 Renseignements généraux...... 13 Registration Desk...... 13 Bureau d’inscription...... 13 Name Badges...... 13 Insignes porte-nom...... 13 Location of the Sessions...... 13 Emplacement des séances...... 13 Urgent Messages...... 13 Messages urgents...... 13 Currency and Banking Facilities...... 13 Services bancaires et de devises...... 13 Meals and Refreshments...... 14 Repas et rafraîchissements...... 14 No Smoking Policy...... 14 Politique antitabac...... 14 Lost and Found...... 14 Objets perdus et trouvés...... 14 Tipping and Gratuities...... 14 Pourboires...... 14 Early Career Scientists...... 15 Scientifiques en début de carrière...... 15 Social Activities...... 16 Activités sociales...... 16 Welcome Reception...... 16 Réception de bienvenue...... 16 Jazz Soiree...... 16 Soirée jazz...... 16 Social Tours...... 16 Excursions touristiques...... 16 Special Exhibition...... 16 Exposition spéciale...... 16 Business Meetings...... 17 Réunions d’affaires...... 17 Commercial Exhibition...... 18 Exposition commerciale...... 18 Exhibition Hours...... 18 Heures de visite...... 18 Exhibition Floor Plan...... 18 Plan de l’exposition...... 18 List of Exhibitors...... 19 Liste des exposants...... 19 Map of Hotels...... 25 Carte des hôtels...... 25 Science Program – Programme scientifique – Topics & Conveners...... 26 Thèmes et organisateurs des séances...... 26 Program at a Glance...... 28 Aperçu du programme...... 28

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Conference Program

Saturday, August 16...... 30 Wednesday, August 20...... 88 Opening Ceremony and Joint Plenary ...... 30 Joint Plenary Session...... 88 Sunday, August 17...... 31 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 10:30-12:00...... 88 Joint Plenary Session ...... 31 Science Program...... 88 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 10:30-12:00...... 31 UAS Program...... 95 Science Program...... 31 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 13:30-15:00...... 95 UAS Program...... 37 Science Program...... 95 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 13:30-15:00...... 38 UAS Program...... 101 Science Program...... 38 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 16:30-18:00...... 103 UAS Program...... 38 Science Program...... 103 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 16:30-18:00...... 39 UAS Program...... 108 Science Program...... 39 Thursday, August 21...... 110 UAS Program...... 44 Joint Plenary Session...... 110 Science Plenary – 18:00-19:30...... 46 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 10:30-12:00...... 110 Monday, August 18...... 47 Science Program...... 110 Joint Plenary Session...... 47 UAS Program...... 116 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 10:30-12:00...... 47 Parallel Sessions – 12:30-14:00...... 117 Science Program...... 47 Science Program...... 117 UAS Program...... 54 UAS Panel Session – 12:00-13:30...... 54 Posters (by presentation day)...... 122 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 13:30-15:00...... 55 Sunday, August 17...... 122 Science Program...... 55 Monday, August 18...... 129 UAS Program...... 60 Tuesday, August 19...... 137 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 16:30-18:00...... 61 Wednesday, August 20...... 144 Science Program...... 61 UAS Program...... 66 Palais des congrès de Montréal Floor plans / US Post-THORPEX Town Hall – 18:00-19:30...... 68 Palais des congrès de Montréal – Plans Early Career Scientists’ Meeting – 18:00-19:00..... 68 Tuesday, August 19...... 69 Internet Joint Plenary Session...... 69 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 10:30-12:00...... 69 Science Program...... 69 UAS Program...... 75 UAS Workshop – 12:00-13:30...... 75 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 13:30 – 15:00...... 76 Science Program...... 76 UAS Program...... 80 Parallel and Panel Sessions – 16:30-18:00...... 81 Science Program...... 81 UAS Program...... 86

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Organization / Organisation The 1st World Weather Open Science Conference is co-organized by the World Meteorological Organization, the International Council for Science, Environment Canada and the National Research Council of Canada / La première conférence publique mondiale sur la météorologie est co-organisée par l’Organisation météorologique mondiale, le Conseil international pour la science, Environnement Canada et le Conseil national de recherches du Canada

International Organizing Committee / Comité organisateur international Michel Béland Co-Chair Coprésident Past President, WMO Commission for Président sortant, Commission des sciences Atmospheric Sciences atmosphériques de l’OMM Environment Canada, Canada Environnement Canada, Canada Alan Thorpe Co-Chair Coprésident Director General Directeur général European Centre for Medium-Range Centre européen pour les prévisons Weather Forecasts, UK météorologiques à moyen terme, Royaume- Uni Gordon McBean Member Membre President-elect of International Council for Président désigné, Conseil international Science (ICSU) and, pour la science (CIUS) et Université Western University of Western Ontario, Canada Ontario, Canada Hans Volkert Member Membre Secretary-General, International Association Secrétaire général, International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences and Institüt für Physik der Atmosphäre, et Institüt für Physik der Atmosphäre, Germany Allemagne Deon Terblanche Member Membre Director, Atmospheric Research Department Directeur, Département de recherche World Meteorological Organization, atmosphérique Switzerland Organisation météorologique mondiale, Suisse Véronique Bouchet Member Membre A/Director, Meteorological Research Division Directeur int., Division de la recherche Environment Canada, Canada en météorologie Environnement Canada, Canada William Lapenta Member Membre A/Director, Environmental Modeling Center Directeur int., Environmental Modeling National Oceanic and Atmospheric Center Administration, USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, États-Unis Julia Slingo Member Membre Chief Scientist Scientifique en chef MetOffice, UK MetOffice, Royaume-Uni Meiyan Jiao Member Membre Deputy Administrator Administratrice adjointe China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Administration météorologique de Chine China (CMA), Chine Albert van Jaarsveld Member Membre Chief Executive Officer Président-directeur général National Research Foundation of South National Research Foundation of South Africa, South Africa Africa, Afrique du Sud

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Pedro Leite da Silva Member Membre Dias Director, National Laboratory for Scientific Directeur, National Laboratory for Scientific Computing Computing Ministry of Science and Technology, Brazil Ministry of Science and Technology, Brésil Jon Gill Member Membre Manager, International Affairs Gestionnaire, Affaires internationales Bureau of Meteorology, Australia Bureau of Meteorology, Australie Roger Wakimoto Member Membre Assistant Director, Geosciences Directeur adjoint, Geosciences National Science Foundation, USA National Science Foundation, États-Unis

Ex-officio Members / Membres d’office Tetsuo Nakazawa WMO liaison Agent de liaison de l’OMM Chief, WWRD, World Meteorological Chef, PMRM, Organisation météorologique Organization mondiale Sophie Cousineau Executive IOC Secretary Secrétaire exécutive de la COI A/Head, REQA, Environment Canada, Chef int., REQA, Environnement Canada, Canada Canada Gilbert Brunet Co-Chair, Science Program Committee Coprésident, Comité du programme Deputy Director Weather Science, scientifique MetOffice, UK Directeur adjoint, Weather Science, MetOffice, Royaume-Uni Sarah Jones Co-Chair, Science Program Committee Coprésidente, Comité du programme Director Research and Development, scientifique Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Germany Directrice, Recherche et développement, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Allemagne Brian Mills Co-Chair, User Program Committee Coprésident, Comité du programme des Senior scientist, Environment Canada, utilisateurs Canada Scientifique principal, Environnement Canada, Canada David Rogers Co-Chair, User Program Committee Coprésident, Comité du programme des President, Health and Climate Foundation, utilisateurs Switzerland Président, Fondation pour la santé et le climat, Suisse Laurier Forget Conference Director Directeur de la Conférence, Head, Conference Services, National En-tête, Service de Conférences, Conseil Research Council, Canada national de recherches, Canada

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Science Program Commitee / Comité du programme scientifique Gilbert Brunet Co-Chair of the Science Program Coprésident du comité du programme Committee scientifique Deputy Director Weather Science, Directeur adjoint, Weather Science, MetOffice, UK MetOffice, Royaume-Uni Sarah Jones Co-Chair, Science Program Committee Coprésidente, Comité du programme Director Research and Development, scientifique Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Directrice, Recherche et développement, Germany Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Allemagne

Members / Membres Gianpaolo Balsamo ECMWF Philippe Bougeault Météo-France, France Johnny Chan University of Hong Kong, China / Chine Walter Dabberdt Vaisala Inc., USA / É.U. Beth Ebert BOM, Australia / Australie Oystein Hov NMI, Norway / Norvège Eugenia Kalnay University of Maryland, USA / É.U. Martin Miller ECMWF, UK / Royaume-Uni David Parsons University of Oklahoma, USA / É.U. Marty Ralph ESRL, USA / É.U. Yoshiaki Sato JMA, Japan / Japon Roger Saunders MetOffice, UK / Royaume-Uni Andreas Schiller CSIRO, Australia / Australie Heini Wernli ETH, Switzerland / Suisse

User, Application & Social Science Program Committee / Comité du programme des utilisateurs, applications et sciences sociales Brian Mills Co-Chair, UAS Program Committee Coprésident, du comité du programme UAS Senior scientist, Environment Canada, Scientifique principal, Environnement Canada Canada, Canada David Rogers Co-Chair, UAS Program Committee Coprésident, du comité du programme UAS President, Health and Climate Foundation, Président, Fondation pour la santé et le Switzerland climat, Suisse

Members / Membres Rowan Douglas Willis Research Network Eve Gruntfest Trauma, Health and Hazards Center, University of Colorado William (Bill) Hooke American Meteorological Society Michel Jancloes Health and Climate Foundation Haleh Kootval World Meteorological Organization / Organisation météorologique mondiale William Mahoney National Center for Atmospheric Research Claire Martin Formely with International Association of Broadcast Meteorologists (IABM) and Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) Hassan Virji Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START)

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Local Organizing Committee / Comité local d’organisation Jean Langlais Chair Président Director, Biosphere, Environment Canada, Directeur, Biosphère, Environnement Canada Canada Jim Abraham Chair of Fundraising Committee Président, Comité d’activités de Retired, Environment Canada financement À la retraire, Environnement Canada Sylvie Castonguay Communications Communications World Meteorological Organization, Organisation météorologique mondiale, Switzerland Suisse Laurier Forget Conference Director Directeur de la conférence Head, Conference Services, National Chef, Service de conférence, Conseil Research Council, Canada national de recherches Canada, Canada Sylvie Couture Conference Manager Gestionnaire de conférence Conference Services, National Research Service de conférence, Conseil national de Council, Canada recherches Canada, Canada Jacques Lavigne Media Relation Consultant Consultant des relations avec les médias Canada Canada

Conference Management Office / Bureau de gestion de la conférence Sylvie Couture Conference Manager / Gestionnaire de la conférence National Research Council Canada / Conseil national de recherches Canada 1200, chemin Montréal Road, Building / Édifice M-19 Ottawa, ON Canada K1A 0R6 Tel / Tél : (613) 991-2060 Fax / Téléc.: (613) 993-7250 Email / Courriel : [email protected]

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Message from the Conference Chairs On behalf of the International Organizing Committee (IOC) we would like to welcome you to WWOSC 2014 and the beautiful city of Montreal. We are sure you will find this event important and stimulating from a professional viewpoint, given its anticipated impact on the future priorities of world weather research programs, and further down the line, weather and environmental information services. We hope that you will enjoy the company of colleagues, old and new, and the venue as well as the social activities that will take place during the conference. It would be worth your while to include visits to the many interesting sites in Montreal and its surrounding areas in your schedule. The warmth and friendliness of the Alan Thorpe people are well known, as is the diversity of museums, food, music and overall cultural opportunities. We have been working on the organization of this conference for more than two years. It has been an exciting and challenging task, given the uniqueness of the event: this is the first ever world weather open science conference, at least to our knowledge. We wish to thank the IOC members who contributed so much of their time and effort, it certainly made the work of the two co-Chairs much easier. In particular we wish to thank the Chairs of our Science Program – Sarah Jones and Gilbert Brunet as well as the Chair of our User, Application and Social science program – Brian Mills – who have worked tirelessly in putting together what promises to be an excellent conference.

Michel Béland We would like to particularly acknowledge the invaluable contributions of the National Research Council of Canada (NRC), through the NRC Conference Services Office, which took care of technical issues and allowed the rest of the IOC to focus on the science programs, related working group meetings, discussion panels, and guest speakers. Without their vast experience in setting up such meetings on a financially sound base, the task of the IOC would have been much more difficult. We would also like to thank Rick Rosen, whom, at a Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) meeting held three or four years ago, originally suggested that perhaps it would be opportune to hold such a meeting, and WMO, for encouraging some of us to make this suggestion a reality. We also wish to thank the Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada and the Atmospheric Science Program, who not only delegated several officials to the IOC, but also provided generous funding to this initiative. We further wish to extend our appreciation to all the other contributors and sponsors, the names of which you will find in this Program. When completing your registration on arrival at the Palais des Congrès, or in setting up your oral presentation or poster, you will be assisted by a number of young and eager student volunteers - they come mostly from McGill University and l’Université du Québec à Montréal. They are there to help you, and we would like to thank them for contributing their time to make WWOSC 2014 a success. So en résumé, we wish you a pleasant and profitable stay in Montreal and look forward to the many scientific and technical presentations and discussions that we will all enjoy during the conference. These presentations and discussions will address the real and pressing research, applications and operational issues underlying WWOSC 2014. In the end, if this meeting can contribute to a resolution to any of these, it will have been a great success in which you will rightly share. Thank you,

Michel Béland and Alan Thorpe, WWOSC 2014 IOC co-Chairs

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Message des présidents de la Conférence Au nom du Comité international d’organisation (CIO), nous désirons vous souhaiter la bienvenue à la WWOSC 2014 dans la magnifique Ville de Montréal. Nous sommes assurés que vous trouverez cet événement important et stimulant sur le plan professionnel en raison de son impact prévu sur les propriétés futures des programmes mondiaux de recherche météorologique et, en aval, des services d’information météorologiques et environnementaux. Nous espérons également que vous profiterez de la compagnie de collègues, connus et nouveaux, et jouirez du lieu de la conférence et des différentes activités sociales offertes. Nous espérons que votre horaire vous permettra de visiter les nombreux Alan Thorpe sites intéressants de Montréal et des régions voisines. L’accueil chaleureux et l’amitié des gens sont reconnus, de même que la diversité des musées, des restaurants, de la musique et de l’ensemble des activités culturelles. Nous organisons la conférence depuis plus de deux ans. Cette tâche a certes été excitante, compte tenu de l’unicité de l’événement : il s’agit de la toute première conférence scientifique publique mondiale sur la météorologie, du moins à notre connaissance. Nous tenons à remercier les membres du CIO qui ont contribué inlassablement à son organisation, ce qui a certainement facilité le travail des coprésidents. Nous désirons remercier, en particulier, les présidents de notre Comité scientifique – Sarah Jones et Gibert Brunet, ainsi que Brian Mills, président de notre Programme des utilisateurs, des applications et des sciences sociales – qui ont travaillé diligemment à la préparation de ce qui promet d’être une excellente Michel Béland conférence. Nous voulons particulièrement reconnaître les contributions inestimables du Conseil national de recherches Canada (CNRC) qui, par l’intermédiaire de son Bureau des services de conférence, s’est chargé des questions techniques et a permis au reste du CIO de se concentrer sur les programmes scientifiques, les réunions des groupe de travail connexes, les discussions entre experts et les conférenciers invités. Sans cette vaste expérience de l’organisation de telles rencontres sur une base financière solide, la tâche du CIO aurait été beaucoup plus difficile. En outre, nous voulons remercier Rick Rosen qui, lors d’une réunion du Groupe de travail sur l’expérimentation numérique (WGNE) tenue il y a trois ou quatre ans, a été le premier à proposer qu’il serait peut-être opportun d’organiser une telle rencontre, et l’OMM pour avoir encouragé certains d’entre nous à la concrétiser. Nous tenons également à remercier le Service météorologique du Canada d’Environnement Canada et le Programme des sciences atmosphériques qui, en plus d’affecter plusieurs représentants auprès du CIO, ont généreusement contribué financièrement à l’initiative. Notre reconnaissance s’adresse aussi à tous les autres contributeurs et commanditaires, dont les noms sont indiqués dans le programme. Au moment de vous inscrire à votre arrivée au Palais des congrès ou d’installer votre présentation orale ou par affiches, vous serez accueillis par de nombreux jeunes bénévoles étudiants impatients de vous aider; la plupart viennent de l’Université McGill et de l’Université du Québec à Montréal. Nous les remercions de leur temps envers la réussite de la WWOSC 2014. En somme, nous vous souhaitons un séjour agréable et fructueux à Montréal et sommes anxieux de participer aux nombreuses discussions, présentations scientifiques et techniques dont tous profiteront à la conférence. Ces présentations et discussions sont axées sur les questions véritables et immédiates en matière de recherche et d’opérations sousjacentes à la WWOSC 2014. Enfin, si cette rencontre peut contribuer au règlement de l’une ou l’autre de ces questions, elle s’avérera un franc succès auquel vous aurez participé à juste titre. Merci.

Michel Béland et Alan Thorpe, coprésidents du CIO de la WWOSC 2014

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Online Mobile App and E-Book Application mobile et résumés of Abstracts en ligne All registered attendees will be able to use the free Les participants inscrits à la conférence pourront utiliser WWOSC 2014 Mobile App to navigate and search the gratuitement l’application mobile de WWOSC 2014 afin program guide and online book of abstracts in the palm de consulter le guide du programme ainsi que le livre de of their hand! résumés en ligne à portée de la main! myWWOSC14 app is user-friendly and simple to L’application myWWOSC14 est conviviale et facile navigate. It is an easy to use mobile app and attendee à naviguer. Cette application mobile et le site Web website that will help you personalize your time at the connexe vous aideront à personnaliser votre temps lors WWOSC 2014 Conference. This app will serve as the de la conference WWOSC 2014. L’application servira platform for the real-time Science and User, Application de plateforme pour le Programme scientifique ainsi que & Social Science Programs. Once registered, you can le Programme des utilisateurs, des applications et des set your password, maintain your itinerary and view all sciences sociales en temps réel. Une fois inscrit(e), sessions, including abstract descriptions. vous pouvez établir votre propre mot de passe, maintenir votre propre itinéraire et visionner toutes les séances y compris les descriptions des résumés. Features include: Capacités :

• Create a personalized agenda at the • Créer un programme personnalisé lors de la Conference conférence • Connect with attendees, exhibitors, sponsors and • Établir des liens avec les participants, les exposants presenters et les conférenciers • Access the full schedule and program including all • Avoir accès aux calendrier et programme complets y last minute updates compris toutes les mises à jour de dernière heure • View the exhibition hall floor plan • Visionner le plan d’étage de la salle des exposants

• myWWOSC14 app is available for the Apple iPhone®, L’application myWWOSC14 est disponible sur les iPad® and iPod Touch® on the Apple iTunes App store appareils Apple iPhone®, iPad® et iPod Touch® à la and is also available for Android in the Google Play boutique d’applications Apple iTunes ainsi que sur Store. l’androïde à la boutique Google Play.

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Download Today – Téléchargez l’application dès search for WWOSC 2014 aujourd’hui – recherchez WWOSC 2014

Step 1: Activate and set up your Étape 1 : Activez et établissez votre profil myWWOSC14 profile on your computer or myWWOSC14 à partir de votre ordinateur ou mobile device. appareil mobile.

From your computer: (Attendee website) Sur votre ordinateur : (site Web des participants) Go to www.wwosc2014.org, Select myWWOSC14. Allez à www.wwosc2014.org et sélectionnez myWWOSC14. • As a registered attendee – Log in with the email • À titre de participant(e) inscrit(e), entrez l’adresse address used for registration and the temporary de courriel que vous avez utilisée au moment de password for the mobile app provided to you by email l’inscription ainsi que le mot de passe temporaire prior to the conference. pour l’application mobile qui vous a été fourni dans un courriel avant la conférence.

• Can’t find the email, not to worry. Click on the “Need • Si vous ne trouvez pas le courriel, ne vous en help logging in? and follow the prompts. faites pas. Cliquez sur « Besoin d’aide pour vous connecter? » et suivez les messages-guides.

From your mobile device or tablet: Sur votre appareil mobile ou tablette : Go to the Apple App Store or Google Play store and Allez à la boutique Apple App ou or Google Play et search WWOSC 2014. recherchez WWOSC 2014. • Follow the log in prompts using your email address • Suivez la connexion dans les messages-guides au and the temporary password provided to you by email moyen de vos adresse de courriel et mot de passe prior to the conference or the password you set when temporaire pour l’application mobile qui vous a été you first logged in the attendee website. fourni dans un courriel avant la conférence ou du mot de passe que vous avez défini au moment de votre première connexion au site des participants.

Step 2: Explore the Sessions, Create your Étape 2 : Étudiez les séances et créez votre own Event Plan propre plan d’activités • Search by day, topic, track or any word to find the • Recherchez selon le jour, le sujet, la ligne directrice session, speaker or exhibitor that interests you at ou tout mot pour trouver la séance, le conférencier ou WWOSC 2014. l’exposant qui répond à vos intérêts. • Add sessions, events, and exhibitors to your • Ajoutez des séances et des exposants à votre myWWOSC14 schedule to get the most out of your programme myWWOSC14 afin de retirer le plus de time at the Conference votre participation à la conférence. • Access your event plan whenever, wherever from your • Accédez à votre plan d’activités en tout temps et en smartphone, desktop and mobile device tout lieu sur votre téléphone intelligent, bureau et appareil mobile.

Remember: Say YES to “Push notifications” to ensure Rappel : Acceptez les notifications poussées afin de you receive the most up-to-date schedule and session vous assurer de recevoir les plus récents changements changes! au programme et aux séances! Need help? — Come see us at the Registration Desk – Besoin d’aide? – Venez nous voir au Bureau myWWOSC14 and we will help you get started! d’inscription myWWOSC14 et nous vous aiderons à démarrer!

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Instructions to Presenters Instructions aux présentateurs

Session Chairs Présidents de séances Session Chairs should report to the designated session Les présidents de séance sont priés de se rendre à rooms 15 minutes prior to the start of the session to la salle désignée quinze minutes avant le début de meet the speakers. It is important that sessions start on la séance afin de rencontrer les conférenciers. Il est time and that the timing of the presentations be strictly important que l’horaire soit rigoureusement respecté enforced to allow attendees to move from one session afin que les participants passent facilement d’une to another. In the event of a cancellation, the timing of séance à l’autre. En cas d’annulation, l’horaire de the other presentations should not be changed. The gap présentation ne doit pas être modifié. L’écart devrait should be used for general discussion and/or a break. servir à une discussion générale et/ou une pause.

Speakers Conférenciers Speakers should report to the designated session Les conférenciers devraient se présenter à la salle rooms 15 minutes before the start of the session to désignée pour la séance quinze minutes avant le début meet the session chairs. de la séance, afin de rencontrer le président.

Audio-Visual Equipment Équipement audio-visuel Conference rooms will be equipped with the following: Toutes les salles seront dotées des éléments suivants : • 1 large screen • 1 grand écran • 1 LCD projector • 1 projecteur à cristaux liquides • 1 laptop computer (PC) with CD player • 1 ordinateur portatif avec lecteur de disques • 1 podium microphone compacts • 1 wireless lavalier microphone • 1 microphone de tribune • 1 laser pointer • 1 microphone-lavallière • 1 pointeur laser

Computer Presentation Directives concernant les présentations Guidelines sur ordinateur To ensure consistency within the presentations please Aux fins de la cohérence des présentations, veuillez follow these simple guidelines: suivre les simples directives ci-après :

• All oral presentations will be made using computers • Aucun ordinateur portatif ou ordinateur blocnotes provided by the Conference organization. No personnel ne pourra être utilisé durant les personal laptop or notebook computers will be présentations orales. Il est obligatoire de se servir de allowed. l’ordinateur fourni par l’organisation de la conférence. • Speakers should visit the Speaker Ready Room at • Tout conférencier devra se rendre à la salle de least one day before their scheduled presentation préparation des conférenciers au moins une journée time. The Speaker Ready Room is located in rooms avant l’heure prévue pour sa présentation. Il s’agit de 523 A-B. la salle 523 A-B.

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Hours of operation for the Speaker Ready Room will be Les heures d’ouverture seront comme suit : as follows:

Friday, August 15...... 12:00 – 17:00 Le vendredi 15 août...... 12 h – 17 h Saturday, August 16...... 09:00 – 20:00 Le samedi 16 août...... 9 h – 20 h Sunday, August 17...... 07:00 – 18:00 Le dimanche 17 août...... 7 h – 18 h Monday, August 18...... 07:00 – 18:00 Le lundi 18 août...... 7 h – 18 h Tuesday, August 19...... 07:30 – 18:00 Le mardi 19 août...... 7 h 30 – 18 h Wednesday, August 20...... 07:30 – 18:00 Le mercredi 20 août...... 7 h 30 – 18 h Thursday, August 21...... 08:00 – 14:00 Le jeudi 21 août...... 8 h – 14 h Presenters should clearly identify themselves and Les conférenciers devraient s’identifier clairement et specify the room, date and time of presentation. Only spécifier la salle, la date et l’heure de leur présentation. the following formats will be accepted: Seuls les formats suivants seront acceptés :

• CD • Disque compact • USB Memory Stick • Clé USB

During your visit to the Speaker Ready Room, a Pendant votre visite à la salle de préparation des staff member will help you upload and check your conférenciers, un employé vous aidera à charger votre presentation on the Conference host computers. Your présentation sur un ordinateur hôte de la conférence et presentation will be sent from the central server to the à la vérifier. Votre présentation sera envoyée du serveur room where you will be presenting. Conference staff central vers la salle où vous ferez la présentation. will be available in the session rooms for assistance. Le personnel de la conférence sera disponible pour All electronic presentations will be deleted immediately vous aider à afficher la présentation à l’écran. Toute after the session. présentation électronique sera effacée immédiatement après la présentation.

Poster Presenters Auteurs d’affiches Poster Sessions will be located in rooms 220 D-E. Les séances d’affichage auront lieu dans les salles Presenters are required to mount their material from 220 D-E. Les présentateurs doivent monter leur 07:30 to 09:00 on Sunday, August 17 and remove them matériel entre 7 h 30 à 9 h le dimanche 17 août et between 16:30 – 18:30 on Wednesday, August 20. l’enlever entre 16 h 30 et 18 h 30 le mercredi 20 août. Authors are expected to be at their posters on the day Les présentateurs devront être présents près de leur of presentation as identified by your poster session affiche le jour de leur présentation tel qu’indiqué par le index code which follows the numbering system below. code de l’indice du numéro d’affiche qui suit la clé du système de numérotation ci-dessous.

Key to the Numbering System Clé du système de numérotation Poster boards are numbered consecutively. The Les tableaux d’affichage sont numérotés consécutive- number of the poster board assigned to individuals is ment. Le numéro de tableau d’affichage assigné à listed in this program. chaque présentateur figure dans ce programme.

Example of Numbering: SCI-POM1000 or Exemples de numérotation: SCI-POM1000 ou UAS-POS3000 UAS-POM3000 Program: SCI=Science, UAS=User, Applications and Programme : SCI=Scientique, UAS=Utilisateurs,des Social Science applications et des sciences sociales PO: Poster PO : Affiche Day of Presentation: S = Sunday, M = Monday, Jour de la présentation : D = dimanche, M = lundi, T = Tuesday, W = Wednesday T = mardi, W = mercredi Abstract and Poster Board Number: 1000 or 3000 Numéro du résumé et du tableau d’affichage: 1000 ou 3000

12 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada

General Information Renseignements généraux

Registration Desk Bureau d’inscription The registration desk is located in Viger Hall Le bureau d’inscription est situé dans le hall Viger of the Palais des congrès de Montréal and du Palais des congrès de Montréal et est ouvert aux is open: heures suivantes : Friday, August 15...... 12:00 – 17:00 Le vendredi 15 août...... 12 h – 17 h Saturday, August 16...... 09:00 – 20:00 Le samedi 16 août...... 9 h – 20 h Sunday, August 17...... 07:30 – 18:00 Le dimanche 17 août...... 7 h 30 – 18 h Monday, August 18...... 07:30 – 18:00 Le lundi 18 août...... 7 h 30 – 18 h Tuesday, August 19...... 07:30 – 18:00 Le mardi 19 août...... 7 h 30 – 18 h Wednesday, August 20...... 07:30 – 18:00 Le mercredi 20 août...... 7 h 30 – 18 h Thursday, August 21...... 08:00 – 14:00 Le jeudi 21 août...... 8 h – 14 h

Name Badges Insignes porte-nom Conference registrants are required to wear their Tous les conférenciers doivent porter leur insigne pour name badge in order to gain entry to the sessions, the avoir accès aux séances, à l’aire d’exposition et pour exhibition and social activities. participer aux activités sociales.

Location of the Sessions Emplacement des séances All sessions will be held on Level 5. The poster session Toutes les séances se dérouleront au niveau 5. will take place in rooms 220 D-E. Les séances d’affichage se tiendront dans la salle 220 D-E.

Urgent Messages Messages urgents During the Conference, it is possible to leave urgent Pendant la conférence, il sera possible de laisser des messages at the registration desk by calling the Palais messages urgents durant les heures d’ouverture du des congrès de Montréal at (514) 871-8122 and at other bureau d’inscription en téléphonant au (514) 871-8122. times at the hotel where the participant is staying. En tout autre temps veuillez communiquer avec l’hôtel où le participant demeure.

Currency and Banking Facilities Services bancaires et de devises Canadian currency is the dollar, which is divided into La devise canadienne est le dollar, divisé en 100 cents. 100 cents. There are 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 1,000 dollar Le dollar canadien se présente en billets de 5, 10, 20, bills. One and two dollar bills have been replaced by 50, 100 et 1 000 dollars. Les billets d’un et de deux coins often referred to as “loonies” (the bird on the $1 dollars ont été remplacés par des pièces appelés « coin is a loon) and “toonies” $2. Travelers’ cheques loonies » (l’oiseau sur la pièce de 1 $ est un huard) et can be cashed at numerous banks and stores (with « toonies » de 2 $. Les chèques de voyage peuvent purchases). There are numerous ATM Bank Machines être encaissés dans différentes institutions bancaires in downtown Montréal. Banks are generally closed on et magasins (avec achat). Il y a de nombreux guichets Sundays in Canada. There is a foreign exchange booth automatiques au centre-ville de Montréal. Les banques at the Montréal-Trudeau International airport. sont généralement fermées le dimanche au Canada. Il y a un kiosque pour échanger les devises étrangères à l’aéroport Montréal-Trudeau.

13 World Weather Open Science 2014

Meals and Refreshments Repas et rafraîchissements From Sunday to Wednesday between 9:30 and 14:00, it Du dimanche au mercredi entre 9 h 30 et 14 h, il sera will be possible to purchase hot meals, light meals and possible d’acheter pour une somme modique des repas snacks for a small fee at the Food Concession located chauds, des repas légers et collations au comptoir de in the exhibition area (room 220 D-E). During coffee la concession alimentaire située l’aire d’exposition (salle breaks, an assortment of hot beverages and juice will 220 D-E). Pour les pauses-café, des boissons chaudes also be served in this area. et du jus seront aussi servis dans l’aire d’exposition.

No Smoking Policy Politique antitabac The Palais is a non-smoking establishment, subject Le Palais est un établissement non-fumeur, sous to the Tobacco Act of the Government of Québec in réserve à la Loi sur le tabac du gouvernement du effect since May 31, 2006. There are exterior zones for Québec en vigueur depuis le 31 mai 2006. Il y a des smokers located at the entrances/exits of the Palais. zones extérieures pour les fumeurs situés aux entrées / Pursuant to the provisions of the law, any infraction will sorties du Palais. Conformément aux dispositions de la incur a fine. loi, toute infraction sera passible d’une amende.

Lost and Found Objets perdus et trouvés For lost or found objects, please address inquiries to Pour les objets perdus ou trouvés, s’il vous plaît a security officer at the Security Operations Center demander des renseignements à un agent de sécurité on the main floor or dial 5508 on the house phone. dans les opérations de sécurité situé à l’étage principal From outside the Palais, you can reach the Security ou composez 5508 sur le téléphone maison. De Operations Center by dialing (514) 871-3141. l’extérieur du Palais, vous pouvez rejoindre le Centre des opérations de sécurité en composant le (514) 871-3141.

Tipping and Gratuities Pourboires A tipping rate of 10% to 15% is recommended in Au Canada, on recommande de donner un pourboire Canada for service in restaurants, taxis, hair Salons, de 10 à 15% dans les restaurants, les taxis, les salons etc. It is customary to calculate the tip on the subtotal de coiffure, etc. Habituellement, on calcule le pourboire before applicable taxes. à partir du montant de la facture avant les taxes.

14 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada

Early Career Scientists at Scientifiques en début de WWOSC 2014 carrière à la WWOSC 2014 Have you just started your scientific career? WWOSC Avez-vous entrepris votre carrière scientifique? La is one of your first “big” conferences? You want to get WWOSC est l’une des conférences de première in touch with other early career scientists during the importance à cet effet. Vous voulez vous mettre en conference? You are interested in strengthening your rapport avec d’autres scientifiques en début de carrière network? Then you should not miss the Early Career durant la conférence? Le renforcement de votre réseau Scientists’ events at WWOSC. vous tient à cœur? Alors, ne manquez pas les activités de la WWOSC s’adressant aux scientifiques en début On Monday, August 18th, we will have an Early Career de carrière. Scientists’ Meeting from 18:00 to 19:00 in room 519 B to hear about Early Career Scientists Associations and Le lundi 18 août, nous tiendrons une réunion des what opportunity they present for us. Do you think there scientifiques en début de carrière, soit de 18 h à should be such an initiative for Early Career Scientists 19 h dans la salle 519 B; on y parlera des possibilités in the meteorology and users community? Come offertes par les associations des scientifiques en and give your perspective. In addition, some senior début de carrière. Croyez-vous en une telle initiative scientists will give us the inside track of their career. pour les scientifiques en début de carrière au sein de la communauté des météorologues et des usagers? Looking for opportunities to strengthen your own Venez faire part de votre point de vue. De plus, certains network and get in touch with new people at the scientifiques supérieurs révéleront le déroulement de conference? We invite you to visit the Early Career leur propre carrière. Scientists’ Lounge in the Exhibit Hall during the coffee breaks to meet other like-minded people and get the Vous êtes en quête d’occasions pour renforcer votre latest information on other upcoming Early Career propre réseau et faire de nouvelles connaissances Scientists’ events during the conference and beyond. à la conférence? Nous vous invitons au Salon des During the lunch breaks you will have the opportunity to scientifiques en début de carrière dans la Salle chat with senior scientists and prospective employers d’exposition pendant les pauses-café afin de rencontrer who can give you advice on your own career planning. des gens d’optique commune et d’obtenir les informations les plus récentes concernant les activités More information on Early Career Scientists’ events axées sur les scientifiques en début de carrière durant during WWOSC 2014 will be spread via twitter. la conférence et par la suite. Les pauses déjeuners vous permettront de converser avec des scientifiques supérieurs et des employeurs éventuels qui pourront vous conseiller en matière de planification de carrière. Plus de renseignements sur les activités s’adressant aux les scientifiques en début de carrière durant la WWOSC 2014 seront communiqués au moyen de Twitter.

15 World Weather Open Science 2014

Social Activities Activités sociales

Welcome Reception Réception de bienvenue The welcome reception will take place on Saturday, La réception de bienvenue aura lieu le samedi 16 août August 16 from 19:30 – 21:30 in the exhibition area in de 19 h 30 – 21 h 30 dans l’aire d’exposition située dans room 220 D-E of the Palais des congrès de Montréal. la salle 220 D-E du Palais des congrès de Montréal.

Jazz Soiree Soirée jazz A Soiree will be held on Tuesday, August 19, from 18:00 La Soirée jazz se tiendra le mardi 19 août de 18 h à to 19:30 in room 710 A. We invite you to meet with new 19 h 30 dans la salle 710 A. Nous vous invitons à and old friends in convivial surroundings while enjoying rencontrer vos nouveaux et anciens amis dans une fine jazz music. ambiance conviviale tout en profitant de la musique jazz.

Social Tours Excursions touristiques The Conference has made arrangements with VDM La Conférence a pris des arrangements avec VDM Global DMC for the organization of private tours. It is Global DMC pour l’organisation de visites privées. Il est still possible to reserve tours. encore possible de réserver des excursions. VDM will have an employee at the Conference Un représentant de VDM sera au bureau d’inscription registration desk as per the following schedule: de la Conférence, aux heures suivantes : Saturday, August 16...... 14:00 – 18:00 Le samedi 16 août...... 14 h – 18 h Sunday, August 17...... 10:00 – 12:00 Le dimanche 17 août...... 10 h – 12 h Monday, August 18...... 08:00 – 10:00 Le lundi 18 août...... 8 h – 10 h Tuesday, August 19...... 08:00 – 10:00 Le mardi 19 août...... 8 h – 10 h There will also be a free tourist information session Il y aura aussi une session d’informations touristiques that will take place on Sunday, August 17 from 09:00 to gratuite le dimanche 17 août de 9 h à 10 h dans la salle 10:00 in room 522 A-B. 522 A-B.

Special Exhibition: The Weather and Us Exposition spéciale : La météo et nous Location: Viger Hall, Palais des congrès de Montréal Endroit: Hall Viger, Palais des congrès de Montréal Environment Canada is pleased to present a series La Biosphère d’Environnement Canada est heureuse of photos from an ongoing public weather exhibition de présenter une sélection de photos issue d’une at the Biosphere, the one and only North American exposition sur la météo présentement offerte au public interpretation centre wholly dedicated to meteorology qui visite la Biosphère, seul centre d’interprétation and climatology. The exhibit’s theme reflects that of this en Amérique du Nord complètement dédié à la first international conference. Intended for a very broad météorologie et à la climatologie. Le thème de cette public, it addresses weather based on concerns and exposition reflète celui de cette première conférence challenges relating to our communities’ resilience, our mondiale. Il va sans dire qu’elle est destinée à un public ecosystems’ sustainability and our economic vitality. très large et qu’elle aborde la météo sous l’angle des préoccupations et des enjeux liés à la viabilité et à la résilience de nos communautés, à la durabilité de nos écosystèmes et à la vitalité de notre économie.

16 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada

Business Meetings / Réunions d’affaires Important note: unless stated otherwise, the meetings listed below are by invitation only / Les rencontres listées ci-dessous sont sur invitation seulement, à moins d’avis contraire

Mesoscale Weather Forecast Research (MWFR) PDP/GIFS-TIGGE Working Group Meeting Working Group Meeting Monday, August 18, 18:00 – 20:00, Thursday, August 14 and Friday, August 15, Location: Palais des congrès de Montréal, Room 518 A 09:00 – 17:30 SERA Working Group Meeting Location: Biosphere, 160, Chemin Tour-de-l’Isle, Thursday, August 21, 14:30 – 17:30 Île Sainte-Hélène, Montréal, Room 201 Friday, August 22, 08:30 – 16:30 Nowcasting Research (NR) Working Group Meeting Location: Biosphere, 160, Chemin Tour-de-l’Isle, Thursday, August 14 and Friday, August 15, Île Sainte-Hélène, Montréal, Rooms 201 and 217 08:00 – 17:30 International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Location: Biosphere, 160, Chemin Tour-de-l’Isle, Research (IWAQFR): Next Steps Session Île Sainte-Hélène, Montréal, Room 217 (Open to all) Tropical Meteorology Research Working Group Thursday, August 21, 12:30 – 15:00 Meeting Location: Palais des congrès de Montréal, Room 520 D Friday, August 15, 08:00 – 17:30 HIWeather Project Meeting Location: Place Bonaventure, Thursday, August 21, 15:00 – 17:30 800, De La Gauchetière West Street, Montréal, Location: Environment Canada Offices (Centre Room André Robert St-Laurent), 105 McGill Street, Room St-Laurent DAOS Working Group Meeting PPP SG Meeting Friday, August 15, 08:00 – 17:30 Thursday, August 21, 14:00 – 18:00 Location: Environment Canada Offices (Centre Location: Environment Canada Offices (Centre St-Laurent), 105 McGill Street, Room St-Laurent St-Laurent), 400 Place d’Youviille, Room LaMontagne Saturday, August 16, 08:00 – 12:00 Friday, August 22, 08:00 - 17:30 Location: Palais des congrès de Montréal, Room 518 C (Note: 13:30 - 14:30 for Joint Meeting with S2S) MJO TF Meeting Location: Environment Canada Offices (Centre St- Saturday, August 16, 08:00 – 18:00, Laurent), 400 Place d’Youviille, Room LaMontagne Location: Palais des congrès de Montréal, Room 518 A Saturday, August 23, 08:00 – 12:30 Joint MWFR and NR Working Group Meeting Location: Palais des congrès de Montréal, Room 513 C Saturday, August 16, 09:00 – 12:00 S2S SG Meeting Location: Palais des congrès de Montréal, Room 518 B Friday, August 22, 09:00 – 17:30 Joint DAOS and MWFR Working Group Meeting (13:30 - 14:30 for Joint Meeting with PPP) Saturday, August 16, 14:00 – 17:00 Location: Environment Canada Offices (Centre Location: Palais des congrès de Montréal, Room 518 C St-Laurent), 105 McGill Street, Room St-Laurent

International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Joint S2S and PPP SG Meeting Research (IWAQFR): Opening Session Friday, August 22, 13:30 - 14:30 (Open to all) Location: Environment Canada Offices (Centre Sunday, August 17, 12:30 – 13:30 St-Laurent), 400 Place d’Youviille, Room LaMontagne Location: Palais des congrès de Montréal, Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Room 520 D Research Meeting GURME SAG Meeting Saturday, August 23, 08:30 – 16:00 Sunday, August 17, 16:30 – 18:00 Location: Palais des congrès de Montréal, Room 513 B Location: Palais des congrès de Montréal, Room 445 A-B

17 World Weather Open Science 2014

Commercial Exhibition Exposition commerciale The commercial exhibition is located in rooms 220 D-E L’exposition commerciale se trouve dans la salle of the Palais des congrès de Montréal. 200 D-E du Palais des congrès de Montréal. Coffee breaks and poster sessions will be held in the Les pauses-café et les séances d’affichage se tiendront exhibition area. Also, participants will have some time dans la zone d’exposition. De plus, les participants during lunch breaks to visit the exhibition. auront un certain temps, aux heures de déjeuner, pour visiter l’exposition.

Exhibition Hours Heures de visite Saturday, August 16...... 19:00 – 21:30 Le samedi 16 août...... 19 h 00 – 21 h 30 Sunday, August 17...... 10:00 – 17:00 Le dimanche 17 août...... 10 h – 17 h Monday, August 18...... 10:00 – 17:00 Le lundi 18 août...... 10 h – 17 h Tuesday, August 19...... 10:00 – 17:00 Le mardi 19 août...... 10 h – 17 h Wednesday, August 20...... 10:00 – 16:30 Le mercredi 20 août...... 10 h – 16 h 30

Exhibition Floor Plan / Plan de l’exposition

18 List of Exhibitors Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada Liste des exposants

List of Exhibitors / Liste des exposants

Booth / Kiosque #704 American Meteorological Society

Founded in 1919, AMS promotes the advancement of the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services. AMS membership

DUST IN RY includes more than 13,000 scientists, educators, students, broadcasters, NG C I OM ER M E E IN R researchers, and other experts in weather, water, and climate, and we also G C E N E A publish eleven leading journals in the field. E E R R

U A

A U

N Fondée en 1919, l’AMS préconise l’avancement des sciences atmosphériques C

M R

G A A

R ainsi que des technologies, applications et services connexes. AMS compte I

H E

N L

V E

H plus de 13 000 membres, dont des scientifiques, éducateurs, élèves,

I T

L I O B N U

P radiodiffuseurs, chercheurs et d’autres experts en météorologie, hydrologie et climatologie. De plus, nous publions onze journaux de première autorité dans ces domaines. Booth / Kiosque #807 ATS Technology Systems Inc.

Aviation communications and meteorological services is what our company does best!

ATS Services Ltd. specializes in the management, operation and training of aviation communicators and meteorological observers. Our associated company, ATS Technology Systems Inc. has Canadian and North American distributorship rights for a variety of professional quality weather instruments, hence providing Sales and Service of highly specialized meteorological instrumentation. Les communications aéronautiques et les services météorologiques sont ce que notre société fait de mieux!

ATS Services Ltd. se spécialise dans la gestion, l’exploitation et la formation des communicateurs de l’aviation et des observateurs météorologiques. Notre société affiliée,ATS Technology Systems Inc. a les droits de franchise de distribution canadienne et nord-américaine pour une variété d’instruments météorologiques de qualité professionnelle, offrant ainsi la vente et service d’instrumentation météorologique hautement spécialisé. Booth / Kiosque #603 Baron Services

Baron provides meteorological detection, visualization, data distribution and integration for organizations worldwide. Custom integration of new and legacy networks addresses budgetary restraints. A leader in dual-polarimetric radar, Baron was selected with L-3 STRATIS to upgrade the U.S. NEXRAD radar network to dual-polarization. Please visit the Baron booth for more information.

Baron fournit des instruments de détection et de visualisation des conditions météorologiques, et de distribution et d’intégration des données à des organisations à l’échelle mondiale. L’intégration sur mesure de réseaux nouveaux et hérités pourvoit au resserrement budgétaire. Chef de file en radars à double polarimétrie, Baron a été choisie avec L-3 STRATIS pour faire passer le radar NEXRAD américain à la double polarisation. Veuillez visiter le kiosque de Baron pour plus d’information.

19 List of Exhibitors Liste des exposants World Weather Open Science 2014

Booth / Kiosque #504 Campbell Scientific (Canada) Corp.

Campbell Scientific (Canada) Corp. is an ISO 9001 certified company well known for our quality data acquisition systems, accurate measurements, and reliability most notably in remote environments. As a provider of dataloggers, sensors, and meteorological equipment since 1978, we have become a leader in system design, support, calibration, and training.

Campbell Scientific (Canada) Corp., une entreprise certifiée ISO 9001 renommée pour la qualité de nos systèmes d’acquisition des données, nos mesures exactes et notre fiabilité, surtout dans les milieux éloignés. Comme fournisseur d’enregistreurs de données, de capteurs et d’équipement météorologique depuis 1978, nous sommes devenus leader en conception, soutien et étalonnage de systèmes ainsi qu’en formation connexe.

Kipp & Zonen is the leading specialist in the measurement of solar and sky radiation, from the ultraviolet to the far infrared. We offer a complete range of high quality instrumentation and accessories, from reliable cost-effective products to the best performance available. Our equipment is used in meteorology, climate and solar energy networks around the world.

Kipp & Zonen est un spécialiste en matière de mesure du rayonnement solaire et diffus allant de l’ultraviolet à l’infrarouge lointain. Nous proposons une gamme complète d’instruments et d’accessoires d’excellente qualité : des produits fiables, d’un bon rapport coût-efficacité, mais aussi les appareils les plus performants ! Nos pyranomètres, par exemple, sont utilisés dans des réseaux météorologiques du monde entier. Booth / Kiosque #512 Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

The Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) is the national society of individuals and organisations dedicated to advancing atmospheric and oceanographic sciences and related environmental disciplines in Canada.

La Société canadienne de météorologie et d’océanographie (SCMO) est une société nationale de personnes et d’organisations vouées à l’avancement des sciences atmosphériques et océaniques et des disciplines environnementales connexes au Canada. Booth / Kiosque #514 China Meteorological Administration

CMA has a well-established operational, service and research systems. It is also an active contributor to the programmes and activities of WMO, IPCC, GEO, CGMS, CEOS, Typhoon Committee, etc. It hosts various international centers such as GISC, RCC, RSMC, RTCs.

La CMA a mis au point des systèmes opérationnels, de service et de recherche bien établis. L’Agence participe activement, entre autres, aux programmes et activités de l’OMM, du GIEC, du GOT, des SCCG, du CEOS et du Comité des typhons. Elle accueille divers centres internationaux dont le GISC, le RCC, le CMRS et les CER.

20 List of Exhibitors Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada Liste des exposants

Booth / Kiosque #615 The COMET® Program

The COMET® Program is a world-wide leader in support of education and training for the environmental sciences, delivering scientifically relevant and instructionally progressive products and services. Located in Boulder, Colorado, USA, we have developed over 700 hours of online training delivered through our MetEd website (www.meted.ucar.edu).

Le programme COMET®, un leader mondial qui soutient l’éducation et la formation en sciences de l’environnement, livre des produits et services scientifiquement pertinents et progressifs sur le plan pédagogique. Situés à Boulder au Colorado (É.-U.), nous avons préparé plus de 700 heures de formation en ligne offertes par l’intermédiaire de notre site Web MetEd (www.meted.ucar.edu). Booth / Kiosque #604 Cray

Cray builds innovative systems and solutions enabling researchers to meet existing and future simulation and analytics challenges. Leveraging years of experience developing the world’s most advanced supercomputers, Cray brings you a comprehensive portfolio of high performance computing, storage, and data analytics solutions delivering unrivaled performance, efficiency, and scalability.

Cray met au point des solutions et systèmes novateurs permettant aux chercheurs de relever les défis actuels et futurs en simulation et analytique. Fort d’années d’expérience de développement des superordinateurs les plus évolués au monde, Cray vous offre un portefeuille complet de solutions à haute performance en matière d’informatique, de stockage et d’analytique des données assurant un rendement, une efficacité et une extensibilité sans précédent. Booth / Kiosque #703 Data Quality Systems Ltd.

Data Quality Systems supports the data quality management of meterological,oceanographic and atmospheric obervations. We provide a full range of tools and services with focus on data quality and process efficency to provide users with the most cost-effective observation environment.

Data Quality Systems soutient la gestion de la qualité des données relatives aux observations météorologiques, océanographiques et atmosphériques. Nous offrons la gamme complète d’outils et de services axés sur la qualité des données et l’efficacité des processus afin de fournir aux utilisateurs le milieu d’observation le plus économique. Booth / Kiosque #502 ECMWF

ECMWF is an intergovernmental organisation supported by 34 countries. Both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service it produces and disseminates global numerical weather predictions to its Member and Cooperating States, international bodies and commercial licensees. Its supercomputer facility is one of the largest of its type in Europe.

Le Centre européen pour les prévisions météorologiques à moyen terme (CEPMMT) est une organisation inter-gouvernementale soutenue par 34 pays. À la fois un institut de recherche et un service opérant en tout temps, il produit et diffuse des prévisions météorologiques numériques mondiales à ses membres et ses États coopérants, aux organes internationaux et aux détenteurs de licences commerciales. Son installation superinformatique est l’une des plus importantes du genre en Europe.

21 List of Exhibitors Liste des exposants World Weather Open Science 2014

Booth / Kiosque #705 Hong Kong Observatory

The Hong Kong Observatory is the meteorological authority in Hong Kong responsible for forecasting weather and issuing warnings on weather-related hazards. It also monitors and assesses radiation levels and provides other meteorological and geophysical services to meet the needs of the public and the shipping, aviation, industrial and engineering sectors.

Le Hong Kong Observatory, l’autorité météorologique de Hong Kong, est chargé de prévoir le temps et d’émettre les avertissements d’accidents météorologiques. De plus, il surveille et évalue les taux de radiation et assure d’autres services météorologiques et géophysiques afin de répondre aux besoins du grand public et des secteurs de la marine marchande, de l’aviation, de l’industrie et du génie. Booth / Kiosque #510 Info-Electronics Systems Inc.

Incorporated in 1981 in Canada and in 1995 in India, Info-Electronics Systems Inc. (IES) is a Montreal-based company providing software, products, services, and turnkey systems in hydro-meteorology, environment and telemetry. IES partners with state-of-the-art manufacturers to supply various types of hydro-meteorological and environmental equipment and solutions to meet the needs of our clients around the world.

Incorporée au Canada en 1981 et en Inde en 1995, les Systèmes Info-Électroniques Inc. (SIE) est une entreprise basée à Montréal fournissant logiciels, produits, services et solutions clefs en main en hydrométéorologie, environnement et télémesure. SIE offre, en partenariat avec des fabriquants de renommée mondiale, une large gamme d’équipements et de solutions dans le domaine d’applications hydrométéorologique et en environnemental répondant aux besoins de ses clients à travers le monde. Booth / Kiosque #611 Lufft Inc.

Lufft has been developing and producing professional components and systems for climate and environment measurement for more than 130 years. LUFFT products and equipment are to be found wherever atmospheric pressure, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other environmental factors require to be captured.

Depuis plus de 130 ans, Lufft met au point et fabrique des éléments et des systèmes professionnels servant aux mesures météorologiques et environnementales. Les produits et l’équipement LUFFT se trouvent partout où il faut capter la pression atmosphérique, le vent, la température, l’humidité relative et d’autres facteurs environnementaux.

22 List of Exhibitors Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada Liste des exposants

Booth / Kiosque #606 McGill University

The Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences is the largest university atmospheric-oceanic sciences group in Canada. It offers academic programs at both the undergraduate and graduate levels, covering a broad range of topics, including physical oceanography, weather systems, climate change, and atmospheric chemistry and physics.

Le Département des sciences atmosphériques et océaniques est le plus important groupe universitaire de recherches atmosphériques et océaniques au Canada. Il offre des programmes d’études de premier cycle et de cycles supérieurs, couvrant une vaste gamme de sujets, y compris l’hydrographie, les systèmes météorologiques, le changement climatique ainsi que la chimie et la physique de l’atmosphère. Booth / Kiosque #602 The Met Office

The Met Office’s aim is to be recognised as the best weather and climate service in the world. For over 150 years we’ve led the way in understanding weather and climate. Today we continue to embrace change and pioneer new techniques, maintaining our reputation as world leaders in our field.

Le Met Office vise à être reconnu au titre de meilleur service météorologique et climatologique au monde. Pendant plus de 150 ans nous avons été chefs de file dans la compréhension de la météo et du climat. Nous continuons d’être ouverts au changement et de défricher de nouvelles techniques, tout en maintenant notre renommée de leaders mondiaux dans notre domaine. Booth / Kiosque #803 Meteorological Service of Canada

The Meteorological Service of Canada offers a wide variety of forecasting products which include weather, air quality and health (humidex, UV and windchill). Environment Environnement Canada Canada Le Service météorologique du Canada offre une vaste gamme de produits de prévision qui incluent la météo, la qualité de l’air et la santé (humidex, rayons UV et refroidissement éolien). Booth / Kiosque #706 Meteorological Technology World Expo

Come and see us to find out more aboutMeteorological Technology World Expo 2014 in Brussels and to pick up your free copy of Meteorological Technology International, the only international publication dedicated to advancement in meteorological technology.

Venez nous rencontrer pour en apprendre davantage sur la Meteorological Technology World Expo 2014 qui se tiendra à Bruxelles et obtenir votre exemplaire gratuit de Meteorological Technology International, l’unique publication internationale dédiée à l’avancement de la météo-technologie.

23 List of Exhibitors Liste des exposants World Weather Open Science 2014

Booth / Kiosque #613 National Center for Atmospheric Research

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is a federally funded research and development center devoted to service, research and education in the atmospheric and related sciences.

Le National Center for Atmospheric Research (ou NCAR), financé par le gouvernement fédéral américain, consiste en un centre de recherche- développement voué au service, à la recherche et à l’éducation en matière de sciences atmosphériques et connexes. Booth / Kiosque #702 Rainwise Inc.

RainWise provides high quality professional weather instruments. Our precision products are compact, durable and offer an exceptional 2 year warranty. Known as a pioneer in the field, our new Online dashboard technology has allowed us to provide custom solutions for clients like the Weather Underground, NEWA and the Maine Forest Service.

RainWise procure des instruments météorologiques professionnels et de qualité supérieure. Nos produits de précision sont compacts, durables et dotés d’une garantie exceptionnelle de deux ans. Reconnue comme pionnier dans le domaine, notre nouvelle technologie Online dashboard nous a permis de fournir des solutions personnalisées à divers clients dont Weather Underground, NEWA et le Maine Forest Service. Booth / Kiosque #607 Université du Québec à Montréal

L’Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM) is the only university in North America to offer undergraduate and graduate studies in atmospheric science in French. Research in atmospheric science is done within the Centre on Study and Simulation of Regional Climate (ESCER).

L’Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM) est la seule université nord-américaine à offrir des programmes d’études en français de premier, deuxième et troisième cycles en sciences atmosphériques. La recherche dans ce domaine est effectuée par le Centre pour l’étude et la simulation du climat à l’échelle régionale (ESCER). Booth / Kiosque #707 World Meteorological Organization

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is the UN system’s authoritative voice on weather, climate and water. It promotes international cooperation on meteorology, coordinates research activities, and facilitates the exchange of data in order to protect life and property from high-impact weather events. WMO is a co-organizer of WWOSC2014.

L’Organisation météorologique mondiale (OMM), l’institution spécialisée des Nations Unies qui fait autorité sur la météo, le climat et les ressources en eau, est coorganisatrice de la WWOSC 2014. L’OMM favorise la coopération internationale en matière de météorologie, coordonne les activités de recherche et facilite l’échange des données en vue de protéger la vie et les biens contre les catastrophes naturelles.

24 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada

Map of Hotels / Carte des hôtels

25 World Weather Open Science 2014

SCIENCE PROGRAM: Topics and Conveners

SPECIAL SESSIONS: P&P – Predictability and Dynamical/ WWRP POST-THORPEX LEGACY Physical/Chemical Processes

PPP – Polar Prediction Project P&P – Dynamics and predictability of middle latitude Thomas Jung (AWI, Germany) and Peter Bauer weather systems and their higher and lower latitude (ECMWF) interactions Heini Wernli (ETH Zurich, Switzerland) and Suzanne S2S – Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Gray (U. of Reading, U.K. ) Project Frederic Vitart (ECMWF) and Andrew Robertson (IRI, P&P – Continental convective systems USA) David Parsons (U. of Oklahoma, USA) and David Stensrud (NOAA, USA) ODA – Observations and Data Assimilation P&P – Clouds and radiation Graeme Stephens (JPL, USA) ODA – New technologies and observation instrumentation innovations: from urban to global P&P – Tropical cyclones and tropical convection scales. Johnny Chan (City University of Hong Kong, China) and Susanne Crewell (U. of Cologne, Germany) and Chris Davis (NCAR, USA) Johannes Schmetz (EUMETSAT) P&P – Sub-grid parameterizations for the ODA – Observations and their assimilation in global atmosphere and ocean to convective scale models Martin Miller (ECMWF) and Andy Brown (Met Office, Roger Saunders (Met Office, United Kingdom) and Ron United Kingdom) Gelaro (NASA, USA) P&P – Stochastic forcing, Ensemble ODA – THORPEX field campaigns prediction systems and TIGGE Richard Patrick Harr (NPS, USA) and Chun-Chieh Wu (National Swinbank (Met Office, United Kingdom) Taiwan U) and Tom Hamill (NOAA, USA) ODA – Observations and assimilation of atmospheric P&P – Atmospheric and oceanic composition constituents (processes physics and modelling) Arlindo daSilva (NASA, USA) and Vincent-Henri Peuch Véronique Bouchet (Environment Canada), Bernhard (ECMWF) Vogel (KIT, Germany) and Alexander Baklanov (U. of Copenhagen, Denmark) ODA – Ocean and cryosphere observations and their assimilation P&P – Numerical methods of the atmosphere and Peter Minnett (U. of Miami, USA) and David Bromwich ocean (including composition and boundary layer at (Ohio State University, USA) all latitudes) Jean Côté (UQAM, Canada) and Christiane ODA – Coupled data assimilation and reanalyses Jablonowski (U. of Michigan, USA) Dick Dee (ECMWF) and Oscar Alves (BoM, Australia)

P&P – Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) ODA – Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic Mitch Moncrieff (NCAR, USA) and Duane Waliser tools (JPL, USA) Mark Buehner (Environment Canada) and Takemasa Miyoshi (RIKEN, Japan)

26 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada

ISS – Interactions between Sub- WHI – Weather-related Hazards and Systems Impacts

ISS – Land-Atmosphere interactions and water cycle WHI – Development of applications in the forecasting Paul Dirmeyer (COLA, USA), Francois Anctil (Laval process University), Pedro Viterbo (IPMA/Lisbon University) and Paul Joe (Environment Canada) and Dirk Heizenreder Christa D. Peters-Lidard (NASA, USA) (DWD, Germany)

ISS – Ocean-Cryosphere-Atmosphere coupling and WHI – Improved understanding of the synergies and interaction science-based needs of multi-hazard events Stephen Belcher (Met Office, U.K.), Diana Verseghy Xu Tang (WMO) and Paul Davies (Met Office, U.K.) (Environment Canada), Anton Beljaars (ECMWF) and Sophie Valcke (CERFACS, France) WHI – Improved understanding of and techniques for decision making NPE – Numerical Prediction of the Earth Pertti Nurmi (FMI, Finland) and Kevin Petty (Vaisala Inc., system: putting it all together USA)

NPE – Urban scale environmental prediction systems Greg Carmichael (U. of Iowa, USA), Sue Grimmond (U. of Reading, U.K.) and Humphrey Lean (Met Office, U.K.)

NPE – Environmental Prediction Systems: Tropical Aspects Masaki Satoh (U. of Tokyo, Japan) and James Doyle (NRL Monterey, USA)

NPE – Environmental Prediction Systems: Mid latitude regional aspects Virginie Marécal (Météo-France) and Jeannette Onvlee (KNMI, Netherlands)

NPE – Environmental Prediction Systems: Global and medium-range aspects Florence Rabier (ECMWF) and Bill Lapenta (NOAA, USA)

NPE – Cross-cutting research on verification techniques Beth Ebert (BoM, Australia) and Barbara Brown (NCAR, USA)

Program at a Glance World Weather Open Science 2014

Science Program Legend UAS Program Legend ODA - Observations and Data Assimilation COT-Cross-cutting and Other Topics P&P - Predictability and Dynamical/Physical/Chemical Processes CWI- Communication of Weather Information ISS - Interactions between Sub-Systems DRM- Disaster Risk Reduction and Management NPE - Numerical Prediction of the Earth system: putting it all together GOF-Government Organizations and Functions WHI - Weather-related Hazards and Impacts GSE- The Goods and Services Economy PPP - Polar Prediction Project Joint Panel and UAS sessions on the Future of the Weather Enterprise S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Special UAS session Science Program Special Plenary UAS Morning Panel

Saturday, August 16 18:00 – 19:30 517 C-D WW-JPL01 – Opening Ceremony and Joint Plenary Session 19:30 – 21:30 220 D-E Welcome Reception in the Exhibit Hall

Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Time Room August 17 August 18 August 19 August 20 August 21 07:30 – 09:00 220 D-E Poster Set-up 08:30 – 10:00 517 C-D WW-JPL02 WW-JPL03 WW-JPL04 WW-JPL05 WW-JPL06 Morning Coffee Morning Coffee Morning Coffee Morning Coffee Morning Coffee 10:00 – 10:30 220 D-E Break Break Break Break Break 10:30 – 12:00 517 C-D UAS-PA400 UAS-PA401 UAS-PA403 UAS-PA407 UAS-PA409 10:30 – 12:00 518 B-C SCI-PS109 SCI-PS125 SCI-PS161 SCI-PS212 SCI-PS240 10:30 – 12:00 519 A SCI-PS102 SCI-PS123 SCI-PS155 SCI-PS202 SCI-PS238 10:30 – 12:00 519 B SCI-PS103 SCI-PS124 SCI-PS156 SCI-PS203 SCI-PS239 10:30 – 12:00 520 A SCI-PS104 SCI-PS130 SCI-PS157 SCI-PS204 SCI-PS242 10:30 – 12:00 524 A SCI-PS105 SCI-PS126 SCI-PS158 SCI-PS205 SCI-PS241 10:30 – 12:00 520 C SCI-PS106 SCI-PS127 SCI-PS159 SCI-PS201 SCI-PS237 10:30 – 12:00 520 D SCI-PS107 SCI-PS128 SCI-PS160 SCI-PS207 SCI-PS243 10:30 – 12:00 520 E SCI-PS108 SCI-PS129 SCI-PS162 SCI-PS208 SCI-PS244 10:30 – 12:00 520 F SCI-PS101 SCI-PS122 SCI-PS154 SCI-PS209 SCI-PS245 10:30 – 12:00 520 B SCI-PS110 SCI-PS131 SCI-PS164 SCI-PS210 SCI-PS246 10:30 – 12:00 524 B SCI-PS111 SCI-PS132 SCI-PS165 SCI-PS211 SCI-PS247 10:30 – 12:00 524 C SCI-PS112 SCI-PS133 SCI-PS163 SCI-PS206 SCI-PS248 Exhibition & Lunch Exhibition & Lunch Exhibition & Lunch Exhibition & Lunch (on your own) – (on your own) – (on your own) – (on your own) – 12:00 – 13:30 Food concession in Food concession in Food concession in Food concession in Exhibit Hall Exhibit Hall Exhibit Hall Exhibit Hall 12:00 – 13:30 522 A-B UAS-PA402 UAS-PA404 12:30 – 14:00 518 B-C SCI-PS254 12:30 – 14:00 524 A SCI-PS250 12:30 – 14:00 524 B SCI-PS251 12:30 – 14:00 524 C SCI-PS252 12:30 – 14:00 519 A SCI-PS253 12:30 – 14:00 519 B SCI-PS249

Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada Program at a Glance

Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Time Room August 17 August 18 August 19 August 20 August 21 12:30 – 14:00 520 A SCI-PS255 12:30 – 14:00 520 B SCI-PS256 12:30 – 14:00 520 C SCI-PS257 13:30 – 15:00 517 C-D SCI-SPL01 UAS-PA408 13:30 – 15:00 518 B-C SCI-PS134 SCI-PS169 SCI-PS223 13:30 – 15:00 524 A UAS-PS304 SCI-PS135 SCI-PS166 SCI-PS214 13:30 – 15:00 524 B UAS-PS305 SCI-PS136 SCI-PS167 SCI-PS215 13:30 – 15:00 524 C SCI-PS137 SCI-PS168 SCI-PS216 13:30 – 15:00 519 A SCI-PS138 SCI-PS171 SCI-PS217 13:30 – 15:00 519 B SCI-PS139 SCI-PS170 SCI-PS213 13:30 – 15:00 520 A SCI-PS140 SCI-PS173 SCI-PS219 13:30 – 15:00 520 B SCI-PS141 SCI-PS172 SCI-PS220 13:30 – 15:00 520 C SCI-PS142 SCI-PS174 SCI-PS221 13:30 – 15:00 520 D SCI-PS143 UAS-PS320 SCI-PS222 13:30 – 15:00 520 E UAS-PS313 UAS-PS321 SCI-PS218 13:30 – 15:00 520 F UAS-PS314 UAS-PS329 13:30 – 15:00 522 A-B UAS-PS330 Poster Session and Poster Session and Poster Session and Poster Session and 15:00 – 16:30 220 D-E Afternoon Coffee Afternoon Coffee Afternoon Coffee Afternoon Coffee Break Break Break Break 16:30 – 18:00 524 A UAS-PS307 SCI-PS144 SCI-PS175 16:30 – 18:00 524 B UAS-PS308 SCI-PS146 SCI-PS176 UAS-PS331 16:30 – 18:00 524 C UAS-PS309 SCI-PS147 SCI-PS177 SCI-PS224 16:30 – 18:00 520 A SCI-PS113 SCI-PS149 SCI-PS178 SCI-PS225 16:30 – 18:00 518 B-C SCI-PS119 SCI-PS148 SCI-PS181 SCI-PS226 16:30 – 18:00 520 B SCI-PS115 SCI-PS150 SCI-PS179 SCI-PS227 16:30 – 18:00 520 C SCI-PS116 SCI-PS151 SCI-PS180 SCI-PS228 16:30 – 18:00 520 D SCI-PS117 SCI-PS152 SCI-PS182 SCI-PS229 16:30 – 18:00 520 E SCI-PS118 SCI-PS153 SCI-PS183 SCI-PS230 16:30 – 18:00 520 F SCI-PS114 UAS-PS315 UAS-PS323 SCI-PS231 16:30 – 18:00 519 A SCI-PS120 UAS-PS316 UAS-PA405 SCI-PS232 16:30 – 18:00 519 B SCI-PS121 SCI-PS233 16:30 – 18:00 524 A SCI-PS234 16:30 – 18:00 522 A-B UAS-PS319 UAS-PS332 16:30 – 18:00 517 C-D UAS-PA406 16:30 – 18:30 220 D-E Poster Removal 18:00 – 19:30 517 C-D SCI-SPL02 18:00 – 19:30 710 A Jazz Soiree Early Career 18:00 – 19:00 519 B Scientists’ Meeting 18:00 – 19:30 520 A SCI-SPL03

29 Friday, August 15 Saturday, August 16 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

12:00 – 17:00 Registration Open – Friday, August 15 Viger Hall 07:30 – 18:00 Registration Open Viger Hall

07:30 - 09:00 Poster Set-up Room 220 D-E 09:00 – 20:00 Registration Open – Saturday, August 16 Viger Hall

WW-JPL02 Room 517 C-D 08:30 - 10:00 WWOSC Joint Plenary Room 517 C-D WW-JPL01 WWOSC 2014 Opening Ceremony and Joint Plenary Session Chairs: Laurent Dubus and Beth Ebert

18:00 - 19:30 08:30 WW-JPL02.01 - Why should we be concerned about meteorological impacts on our energy systems? 18:35 WW-JPL01.01 - A vision of earth-system research, prediction and services in Alberto Troccoli1, Laurent Dubus2, 1CSIRO, Canberra, Australia, 2EDF, Chatou,

the 21st Century 1 1 France Mel Shapiro , NCAR/NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA

09:15 WW-JPL02.02 - Advances and prospects in assimilation of weather and climate observations

19:00 – 21:30 1 1 Exhibit Hall Open Room 220 D-E Jean-Noel Thepaut , ECMWF, Reading, UK

19:30 - 21:30 10:00 - 17:00 Welcome Reception in the Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E Exhibit Hall Open Room 220 D-E

10:00 - 10:30 Morning Break in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

SCI-PS101 Room 520 F 10:30 - 12:00 ISS - Land-Atmosphere interactions and water cycle

Chair: Christa Peters-Lidard

10:30 SCI-PS101.01 - Water cycle prediction at the regional scale: on the importance of being consistent Vincent Fortin1, Al Pietroniro2, Pierre Pellerin1, 1Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2Water and Climate Services,

Environment Canada, Saskatoon, Canada

11:00 SCI-PS101.02 - Land-atmosphere feedbacks over North America: How well do weather and climate models represent reality? Paul Dirmeyer1, Ahmed Tawfik2, 1George Mason University, Fairfax, USA, 2 Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, USA

11:20 SCI-PS101.03 - Using temporal changes in drought indices to provide

drought early warning over sub-seasonal time scales 1 2 3 4 1 Jason Otkin , Martha Anderson , Chris Hain , Mark Svoboda , University of 2 Wisconsin, Madison, USA, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Beltsville, USA, 3 4 University of Maryland, College Park, USA, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, USA

11:40 SCI-PS101.04 - Daily local coupling and predicting convective initiation 1 1 1 Ahmed Tawfik , Paul Dirmeyer , George Mason University, Fairfax, USA

30 Sunday, August 17 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

12:00 – 17:00 Registration Open – Friday, August 15 Viger Hall 07:30 – 18:00 Registration Open Viger Hall

07:30 - 09:00 Poster Set-up Room 220 D-E 09:00 – 20:00 Registration Open – Saturday, August 16 Viger Hall

WW-JPL02 Room 517 C-D 08:30 - 10:00 WWOSC Joint Plenary Room 517 C-D WW-JPL01 WWOSC 2014 Opening Ceremony and Joint Plenary Session Chairs: Laurent Dubus and Beth Ebert

09:15 WW-JPL02.02 - Advances and prospects in assimilation of weather and climate observations

19:00 – 21:30 1 1 Exhibit Hall Open Room 220 D-E Jean-Noel Thepaut , ECMWF, Reading, UK

19:30 - 21:30 10:00 - 17:00 Welcome Reception in the Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E Exhibit Hall Open Room 220 D-E

10:00 - 10:30 Morning Break in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

SCI-PS101 Room 520 F 10:30 - 12:00 ISS - Land-Atmosphere interactions and water cycle

Chair: Christa Peters-Lidard

Environment Canada, Saskatoon, Canada

11:20 SCI-PS101.03 - Using temporal changes in drought indices to provide

11:40 SCI-PS101.04 - Daily local coupling and predicting convective initiation 1 1 1 Ahmed Tawfik , Paul Dirmeyer , George Mason University, Fairfax, USA

31 Sunday, August 17 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS102 Room 519 A SCI-PS104 Room 520 A 10:30 - 12:00 NPE - Cross-cutting research on verification techniques 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - THORPEX field campaigns

Chair: Barbara Casati Chair: Maxi Boettcher

10:30 SCI-PS102.01 - User-focused approaches for forecast evaluation 10:30 SCI-PS104.01 - The THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) 1 1 2 Barbara Brown , Jeff Lazo , Elizabeth Ebert , 1NCAR, Boulder, USA, 2CAWCR, and affiliated programs: objectives, results, and implications 1 2 3 1 Melbourne, Australia Patrick Harr , Sarah Jones , David Parsons , Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA, 2DWD, Frankfurt, Germany, 3University of Oklahoma, Norman,

11:00 SCI-PS102.02 - Object-based spatial verification for multiple purposes USA Beth Ebert1, Lawrence Rikus1, Aurel Moise1, Ying Jun Chen2, Raghavendra Ashrit3, 1Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, 11:00 SCI-PS104.02 - Reviewing the Greenland flow distortion experiment: 2 3 Forecast sensitivity to observational error and steep orography Australia, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia, National Centre for 1 2 2 2 3 Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India Ian Renfrew , Emma Irvine , Sue Gray , John Methven , Nina Petersen , 1 2 3 UEA, Norwich, UK, University of Reading, UK, Icelandic Met Office, Iceland

11:20 SCI-PS102.03 - Verifying deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of objectively clustered weather regimes. 11:20 SCI-PS104.03 - Distinguishing the cold conveyor belt and sting jet air 1 1 1 1 streams in an intense extratropical cyclone Ric Crocker , Robert Neal , David Fereday , Met Office, Exeter, UK 1 1 1 1 Oscar Martinez-Alvarado , Laura Baker , Suzanne Gray , John Methven , 1 1 Robert Plant , University of Reading, Reading, U.K. 11:40 SCI-PS102.04 - Narrowing the “Valley of Death” by facilitating R2O 1 1 1 Maria Pirone , Stephen Marley , Harris Corporation, Washington, USA 11:40 SCI-PS104.04 - First results from the HyMeX-SOP1 field campaign dedicated to Mediterranean heavy precipitation and flash-floods SCI-PS103 Room 519 B Véronique Ducrocq1, François Bouttier1, Julien Delanoe2, Fanny Duffourg1, 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools Cyrille Flamant2, Evelyn Freney3, Olivier Nuissier1, Jean-Pierre Pinty4, Benoit 1 1 1 Chair: Theresa Bick Vie , Béatrice Vincendon , CNRM-GAME (Météo-France & CNRS), Toulouse, France, 2IPSL/LATMOS (CNRS/UPMC/UVSQ), Guyancourt, France, 3LAMP 4 10:30 SCI-PS103.01 - Can four-dimensional ensemble variational assimilation (CNRS/OPGC), Aubière, France, LA (CNRS/UPS), Toulouse, France

match four-dimensional variational assimilation for Numerical Weather

Prediction? SCI-PS105 Room 524 A Andrew Lorenc1, Neill Bowler1, Adam Clayton1, David Fairbairn2, Stephen 1 1 2 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - New technologies and observation instrumentation Pring , Met Office, Exeter, UK, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France innovations: from urban to global scales.

Chair: Johannes Schmetz 11:00 SCI-PS103.02 - Convection-permitting forecasts initialized with limited-area

3DVAR, ensemble Kalman filter, and “hybrid” variational-ensemble data assimilation systems 10:30 SCI-PS105.01 - Achievements and challenges for atmospheric observations 1 1 1 from micro- to meso-scales Craig Schwartz , Zhiquan Liu , NCAR, Boulder, USA 1 1 Mathias Rotach , University of Innsbruck, Institute of Meteorology and

Geophysics, Innsbruck, Austria - 11:20 SCI-PS103.03 Implementation of 4D ensemble-variational data assimilation for global deterministic NWP Mark Buehner1, Ron McTaggart-Cowan2, 1Data Assimilation and Satellite 11:00 SCI-PS105.02 - Nineteen-Year (1996-2014), high-quality, high vertical Meteorology Research, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2Numerical resolution GPS dropsonde observations for weather research Junhong (June) Wang1,2, Terry Hock1, Steve Cohn1, Kate Young1, Weather Prediction Research, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada 1 2 NCAR/EOL, Boulder, USA, SUNY Albany, Albany, USA

11:40 SCI-PS103.04 - An EnVar-based data assimilation scheme for the Canadian Regional Deterministic Prediction System 11:20 SCI-PS105.03 - GlobalSense: Next Generation, In situ observing system 1 2 1 2 based on large ensembles of airborne probes Jean-François Caron , Thomas Milewski , Luc Fillion , Mateusz Reszka , 1 1 1 1 1 Mark Buehner , Stephen Macpherson , 1Data Assimilation and Satellite John Manobianco , John Zack , MESO Inc, Troy, USA 2 Meteorology Research Section, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, Data Assimilation and Quality Control Development Section , Environment Canada, 11:40 SCI-PS105.04 - The Quebec climate monitoring program 1 1 Dorval, Canada Onil Bergeron , Ministère du Développement durable, de l'Environnement, de la

Faune et des Parcs, Québec, Canada

32 Sunday, August 17 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS104 Room 520 A 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - THORPEX field campaigns

Chair: Maxi Boettcher

10:30 SCI-PS104.01 - The THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and affiliated programs: objectives, results, and implications Patrick Harr1, Sarah Jones2, David Parsons3, 1Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA, 2DWD, Frankfurt, Germany, 3University of Oklahoma, Norman,

USA

11:00 SCI-PS104.02 - Reviewing the Greenland flow distortion experiment: Forecast sensitivity to observational error and steep orography Ian Renfrew1, Emma Irvine2, Sue Gray2, John Methven2, Nina Petersen3, 1 2 3 UEA, Norwich, UK, University of Reading, UK, Icelandic Met Office, Iceland

11:20 SCI-PS104.03 - Distinguishing the cold conveyor belt and sting jet air streams in an intense extratropical cyclone Oscar Martinez-Alvarado1, Laura Baker1, Suzanne Gray1, John Methven1, 1 1 Robert Plant , University of Reading, Reading, U.K.

11:40 SCI-PS104.04 - First results from the HyMeX-SOP1 field campaign dedicated to Mediterranean heavy precipitation and flash-floods Véronique Ducrocq1, François Bouttier1, Julien Delanoe2, Fanny Duffourg1, Cyrille Flamant2, Evelyn Freney3, Olivier Nuissier1, Jean-Pierre Pinty4, Benoit Vie1, Béatrice Vincendon1, 1CNRM-GAME (Météo-France & CNRS), Toulouse, France, 2IPSL/LATMOS (CNRS/UPMC/UVSQ), Guyancourt, France, 3LAMP 4 (CNRS/OPGC), Aubière, France, LA (CNRS/UPS), Toulouse, France

SCI-PS105 Room 524 A 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - New technologies and observation instrumentation innovations: from urban to global scales.

Chair: Johannes Schmetz

10:30 SCI-PS105.01 - Achievements and challenges for atmospheric observations from micro- to meso-scales Mathias Rotach1, 1University of Innsbruck, Institute of Meteorology and

Geophysics, Innsbruck, Austria

11:00 SCI-PS105.02 - Nineteen-Year (1996-2014), high-quality, high vertical resolution GPS dropsonde observations for weather research Junhong (June) Wang1,2, Terry Hock1, Steve Cohn1, Kate Young1, 1 2 NCAR/EOL, Boulder, USA, SUNY Albany, Albany, USA

11:20 SCI-PS105.03 - GlobalSense: Next Generation, In situ observing system based on large ensembles of airborne probes 1 1 1 John Manobianco , John Zack , MESO Inc, Troy, USA

11:40 SCI-PS105.04 - The Quebec climate monitoring program Onil Bergeron1, 1Ministère du Développement durable, de l'Environnement, de la

Faune et des Parcs, Québec, Canada

33 Sunday, August 17 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS106 Room 520 C 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - Observations and their assimilation in global to convective scale models

Chair: Ron Gelaro

10:30 SCI-PS106.01 - The use of observations in global Numerical Weather Prediction Florence Rabier1, Nathalie Boullot2, Carla Cardinali1, Fatima Karbou2, Jean- Francois Mahfouf2, Jean-Noel Thepaut1, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK, 2CNRM-

GAME, Meteo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France

11:00 SCI-PS106.02 - Assimilating cloud affected infrared radiances at the Met Office 1 1 1 Ed Pavelin , Roger Saunders , Met Office, Exeter, U.K.

11:20 SCI-PS106.03 - Observation contribution in the analysis of CPTEC/INPE G3DVAR Fabio Diniz1, Dirceu Herdies1, 1CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo,

Brazil

11:40 SCI-PS106.04 - A WRF-based mixed variational and nudging assimilation scheme for US Army convection-scale nowcasting Robert Dumais, Jr.,1, Brian Reen1, Jeffrey Smith1, David Knapp1, Huaqing Cai2, 1US Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, USA, 2 Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Las Cruces, USA

SCI-PS107 Room 520 D 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Atmospheric and oceanic composition (processes, physics, modelling)

Chair: Kristina Lundgren

10:30 SCI-PS107.01 - Evaluating the impact of aerosols on numerical weather prediction Arlindo daSilva1, Saulo Freitas2, Angela Benedetti3, 1NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA, 2Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Forecast (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 3European Centre

for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK

11:00 SCI-PS107.02 - Impact of aviation emissions on the Arctic environment – GEM-AC model simulations Jacek W. Kaminski1, Magdalena Porebska2, Joanna Struzewska2, 1York 2 University, Toronto, Canada, Warsaw University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland

11:20 SCI-PS107.03 - Does natural and anthropogenic aerosol have an impact on numerical weather prediction? Bernhard Vogel1, Eleni Athanasopoulou2, Tobias Schad1, Daniel Rieger1, Isabel Kraut1, Heike Vogel1, 1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2National Observatory of Athens, Greece

34 Sunday, August 17 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

11:40 SCI-PS107.04 - Modelling the Canadian Arctic and northern air quality using GEM-MACH Wanmin Gong1, Stephen Beagley1, Sophie Cousineau2, Jack Chen3, Mourad Sassi2, 1Air Quality Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, Downsview, Canada, 2National Prediction Operations, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 3Marine and Ice Service, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Ottawa,

Canada

SCI-PS108 Room 520 E 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Clouds and radiation

Chair: Jason Milbrandt

10:30 SCI-PS108.01 - Challenges confronting cloud and radiation 1 1 Graeme L. Stephens , California Institute of Technology, Pasedena, USA

11:00 SCI-PS108.02 - The influence of Cloud Radiative Effects (CRE) on the ITCZ position Benjamin Moebis1, Bjorn Stevens1, 1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,

Hamburg, Germany

11:20 SCI-PS108.03 - Information content of infrared hyperspectral data: clear-sky vs. all-sky Yi Huang1, Louis Garand2, 1McGill University, Montreal, Canada, 2Environment

Canada, Doval, Canada

11:40 SCI-PS108.04 - Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation interactions in deep convective clouds over tropical East Africa Joshua Ngaina1, Alfred Opere1, Joseph Ininda1, Nzioka Muthama1, 1 Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya

SCI-PS109 Room 518 B-C 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions

Chair: Heini Wernli

10:30 SCI-PS109.01 - Tropical-Extratropical interactions illuminated through adjoint studies Carolyn Reynolds1, James Doyle1, Clark Amerault1, 1Naval Research

Laboratory, Monterey, USA

11:00 SCI-PS109.02 - Dynamical processes and forecast uncertainty associated with extreme weather over North America during October 2007 Benjamin Moore1, Lance Bosart1, Daniel Keyser1, 1Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York,

Albany, USA

11:20 SCI-PS109.03 - Sensitivity and predictability of severe extratropical cyclones James Doyle1, Carolyn Reynolds1, Clark Amerault1, P. Alex Reinecke1, 1NRL,

Monterey, USA

35 Sunday, August 17 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

11:40 SCI-PS109.04 - Predictability of explosive cyclogenesis over the northwestern Pacific region using ensemble reanalysis Akira Kuwano-Yoshida1, Takeshi Enomoto2, 1JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan, 2 Kyoto University, Uji, Japan

SCI-PS110 Room 520 B 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Tropical cyclones and tropical convection

Chair: Gay Jane Perez

10:30 SCI-PS110.01 - Interactions between equatorial waves and tropical cyclones 1 1 Paul Roundy , University at Albany, Albany, USA

11:00 SCI-PS110.02 - Tropical cyclogenesis in a tropical wave critical layer Ali Asaadi1, Gilbert Brunet2,3, Peter M.K. Yau1, 1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada, 2Meteorological Research 3 Division, Environment Canada, Montreal, Canada, Met Office, Exeter, UK

11:20 SCI-PS110.03 - A climatology of central american gyres 1 1 1 1 Philippe Papin , Lance Bosart , Ryan Torn , University at Albany, Albany, USA

11:40 SCI-PS110.04 - Idealized large eddy simulations of a tropical cyclone-like boundary layer Benjamin Green1, Fuqing Zhang1, 1The Pennsylvania State University, University

Park, USA

SCI-PS111 Room 524 B 10:30 - 12:00 PPP - Polar Prediction Project

Chair: Peter Bauer

10:30 SCI-PS111.01 - Overview of the Polar Prediction Project 1 1 Thomas Jung , AWI, Bremerhaven, Germany

11:00 SCI-PS111.02 - Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic Jiping Liu1, Mirong Song2, Radley Horton3, Yongyun Hu4, 1University at Albany, Albany, USA, 2Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China, 3Columbia 4 University, New York, USA, Peking University, Beijing, China

11:20 SCI-PS111.03 - Overview of an integrated marine Arctic prediction system for METAREAs Hal Ritchie1, Natacha Bernier2, Mark Buehner2, Tom Carrieres1, Serge Desjardins1, Luc Fillion2, Diane Johnston4, Pierre Pellerin2, Gregory Smith2, Gilles Garric5, 1Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dartmouth, Canada, 2Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 3Canadian Ice Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Canada, 4Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Downsview, Canada, 5 Mercator-Océan, Toulouse, France

11:40 SCI-PS111.04 - Aircraft-based observations of turbulence fluxes over the Arctic marginal ice zone: Early results from ACCACIA Andrew Elvidge1, Alex Weiss2, Ian Renfrew1, Ian Brooks3, Tom Lachlan- 2 1 2 3 Cope , UEA, Norwich, UK, British Antarctic Survey, UK, University of Leeds, UK

36 Sunday, August 17 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS112 Room 524 C 10:30 - 12:00 WHI - Development of applications in the forecasting process

Chair: Jennifer Vanos

10:30 SCI-PS112.01 - Future nowcasting systems: Lessons from the WWRP Olympic Nowcasting Projects Paul Joe1, Tom Keenan2, Jian Jie Wang3, George Isaac1, Dmitry Kiktev4, 1Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada, 2Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australis, 3China Meterological Administration, 4 Beijing, China, Roshydromet, Moscow, Russa

11:00 SCI-PS112.02 - From minutes to days: Seamless prediction of airspace capacity degradation for air traffic management Martin Steinheimer1, Gerardus Croonen2, Harald Ganster3, Karin Hennermann4, Rudolf Kaltenböck1, Markus Kerschbaum1, Gregor Löscher4, Juliane Petsch4, Martina Uray3, 1Austro Control, Vienna, Austria, 2AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Vienna, Austria, 3JOANNEUM RESEARCH 4 Forschungsgesellschaft, Graz, Austria, MeteoServe, Vienna, Austria

11:20 SCI-PS112.03 - Impact of heat stress on agricultural crops Kyoungmi Lee1, Hyun-Suk Kang1, Jongho Lee1, 1National Institute of

Meteorological Research, Jeju-do, South Korea

11:40 SCI-PS112.04 - The envisioned aviation weather services and challenges to nowcasting science Ping-wah Li1, Pak-wai Chan1, 1Hong Kong Observatory, Kowloon, Hong Kong,

China

UAS- PA400 Room 517 C-D 10:30 - 12:00 Energy and transportation services, applications and decisions

Chair: Alberto Troccoli

Panelists representing or serving weather-sensitive agencies or enterprises in the energy and transportation sectors will share how their activities are affected by weather and climate and how they utilize weather information in their decision-making. The feedback will be used to guide the direction of future scientific research, applications and services.

Panelists:

Laurent Dubus, EDF, R&D, Chatou, France Daniel Lee, German Weather Service, Offenbach (DWD), Germany France Bernard, Ville de Montréal, Montréal, Canada Sheldon Drobot, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA

12:00 - 13:30 Lunch in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

37 Sunday, August 17 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-SPL01 Room 517 C-D 13:30 - 15:00 The science of weather forecasting: past successes and future challenges

Chair: Michel Béland

Significant advances have been made during the last decade in the science and technology underpinning weather forecasting. Many of these have been translated into improvements in operational forecasting systems so that more detailed information is available to mitigate the impact of weather-related hazards on society, the economy and the environment. Through these advances we are closer to realising the vision of "seamless prediction of the earth system from minutes to months", achieving a truly seamless transition from weather to climate, and providing information on weather impacts that is tailored to user needs. In this plenary session we will explore this vision further, review the progress made in the THORPEX World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and discuss future directions for WWRP and its linkage to WCRP.

Speakers: Gilbert Brunet, Met Office, Exeter, UK “World Weather Research Programme (WWRP): achievements and the way forward” David Parsons, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA “The Achievements, Legacies and challenges of the Ten-Year THORPEX Program” Sarah Jones, DWD, Offenbach, Germany “From THORPEX to High Impact Weather”

UAS-PS304 Room 524 A 13:30 - 15:00 Energy applications and services

Chair: Laurent Dubus

13:40 UAS-PS304.01 - Spatially seamless forecasting of wind power generation with generalized power curves Cristian Waimann1, Pierre Pinson2, Andrea Celeste Saulo1,3, 1Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2Technical University of Denmark, Center for Electric Power and Energy, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark, 3Universidad de Buenos Aires, Departamento de

Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina

14:00 UAS-PS304.02 - Southern Africa's Hydro-Economy and Water Security (SAHEWS) - Integrating seasonal forecasting into decision-making 1 1 Stephen Dorling , University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

14:20 UAS-PS304.03 - Improved weather forecasts for energy operations within the German research project EWeLiNE Kristina Lundgren1, Renate Hagedorn1, Detlev Majewski1, 1Deutscher

Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

14:40 UAS-PS304.04 - National Weather Service supporting decision making in the Arctic 1 1 Eugene Petrescu , NOAA / NWS / Alaska Region, Anchorage, US

38 Sunday, August 17 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-SPL01 Room 517 C-D UAS-PS305 Room 524 B 13:30 - 15:00 The science of weather forecasting: past successes and 13:30 - 15:00 Agricultural impacts, applications, and decision-making future challenges Chair: Joseph Kapuku

Chair: Michel Béland 13:40 UAS-PS305.01 - Agro meteorology, a need for an industrializing agriculture in the highlands of western Cameroon 1 1 1 Significant advances have been made during the last decade in the Nkue Nouwezem Daniel Jude , Mipo Tchazi Lines , University of Dschang, science and technology underpinning weather forecasting. Many of these Dschang, Cameroon have been translated into improvements in operational forecasting systems so that more detailed information is available to mitigate the 14:00 UAS-PS305.02 - Climate change adaptation of the agricultural seed business sector: A cross-country study impact of weather-related hazards on society, the economy and the 1 1 1 Md Khalid Hossain , Sharif As-Saber , RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia environment. Through these advances we are closer to realising the vision of "seamless prediction of the earth system from minutes to months", 14:20 UAS-PS305.03 - Farmers’ adaptive behaviour to climatic change achieving a truly seamless transition from weather to climate, and 1 2 3 1 providing information on weather impacts that is tailored to user needs. In Betty Nabatanzi , Dorothy Namuddu , Emmanuel Musoke , Millennium Development Consult (MDC),Mukono,Uganda, 2Grassland International Uganda this plenary session we will explore this vision further, review the progress 3 (GIU))-Masaka, Uganda, Faculty of Social Sciences, Makerere University, made in the THORPEX World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Kampala, Uganda and discuss future directions for WWRP and its linkage to WCRP.

14:40 UAS-PS305.04 - Assessment of drought impacts, adaptation and mitigation Speakers: measures in Maharashtra state, India Gilbert Brunet, Met Office, Exeter, UK Parmeshwar Udmale1, Yutaka Ichikawa1, Hiroshi Ishidaira1, 1University of “World Weather Research Programme (WWRP): achievements and the way Yamanashi, Kofu, Yamanashi, Japan forward” David Parsons, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA “The Achievements, Legacies and challenges of the Ten-Year THORPEX Program” 15:00 - 16:30 Afternoon Break in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E Sarah Jones, DWD, Offenbach, Germany

“From THORPEX to High Impact Weather”

15:00 - 16:30 UAS-PS304 Room 524 A Poster Session in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

13:30 - 15:00 Energy applications and services

Chair: Laurent Dubus SCI-PS113 Room 520 A

16:30 - 18:00 ISS - Land-Atmosphere interactions and water cycle 13:40 UAS-PS304.01 - Spatially seamless forecasting of wind power generation Chair: Francois Anctil with generalized power curves 1 2 1,3 1 Cristian Waimann , Pierre Pinson , Andrea Celeste Saulo , Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, 16:30 SCI-PS113.01 - Land-atmosphere interactions, the water cycle, and climate 2 extremes Argentina, Technical University of Denmark, Center for Electric Power and 1 1 1 1 3 Sonia Seneviratne , Edouard Davin , Peter Greve , Lukas Gudmundsson , Energy, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Departamento de 1 1 1 1 1 Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina Martin Hirschi , Brigitte Mueller , Boris Orlowsky , Rene Orth , Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

14:00 UAS-PS304.02 - Southern Africa's Hydro-Economy and Water Security (SAHEWS) - Integrating seasonal forecasting into decision-making 17:00 SCI-PS113.02 - Impact of land surface on subseasonal forecasting skill: 1 1 Stephen Dorling , University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Inter-model comparison 1 2 1 2 Zhichang Guo , Paul Dirmeyer , COLA, Fairfax, USA, GMU, Fairfax, USA

14:20 UAS-PS304.03 - Improved weather forecasts for energy operations within the German research project EWeLiNE 17:20 SCI-PS113.03 - Synoptic versus orographic control on stationary convective 1 1 1 1 banding Kristina Lundgren , Renate Hagedorn , Detlev Majewski , Deutscher 1 1 2 3 Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany Andrew Barrett , Suzanne Gray , Daniel Kirshbaum , Nigel Roberts , David 4 4 1 2 Schultz , Jonathan Fairman , University of Reading, Reading, UK, McGill 3 4 14:40 UAS-PS304.04 - National Weather Service supporting decision making in the University, Montreal, Canada, MetOffice@Reading, Reading, UK, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK Arctic 1 1 Eugene Petrescu , NOAA / NWS / Alaska Region, Anchorage, US

39 Sunday, August 17 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

17:40 SCI-PS113.04 - Field evaluation of the Maximum Entropy Production transpiration model Anne Morais1, Annie-Claude Parent1, François Anctil1, Biljana Music2, 1Department of Civil and Water Engineering, Université Laval, Québec, Canada, 2 Ouranos, Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation, Montreal, Canada

SCI-PS114 Room 520 F 16:30 - 18:00 ODA - Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools

Chair: Takemasa Miyoshi

16:30 SCI-PS114.01 - Toward improving the role of the static error covariance in hybrid 4D EnVar Daryl Kleist1,2, Kayo Ide2, 1University of Maryland, College Park, USA, 2 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, USA

17:00 SCI-PS114.02 - Improving balance in the NCEP Hybrid Ensemble-Var data assimilation system Catherine Thomas1,2,3, Daryl Kleist2,3, Rahul Mahajan1,2, 1I.M. Systems Group, College Park, USA, 2Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, USA, 3University of Maryland, College

Park, USA

17:20 SCI-PS114.03 - Outer loop tests and implementation plans of Hybrid 4D EnVar for the NCEP GFS Rahul Mahajan1,2, Daryl Kleist2, John Derber2, Jeff Whitaker3, 1IMSG, College 2 3 Park, USA, NOAA/NCEP, College Park, USA, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, USA

17:40 SCI-PS114.04 - Evaluation of cost vs. impact of Met office observing systems 1 1 1 Rebecca Reid , Richard Marriott , Met Office, Exeter, UK

SCI-PS115 Room 520 B 16:30 - 18:00 ODA - THORPEX field campaigns

Chair: Florian Harnisch

16:30 SCI-PS115.01 - The ECMWF Data Targeting System (DTS) and its use in THORPEX field campaigns David Richardson1, Cihan Sahin1, Alexis Doerenbecher2, Sharan Majumdar3, Stefan Klink4, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK, 2CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France, 3University of Miami, Miami, USA, 4EUMETNET Observations

Programme, c/o DWD, Offenbach, Germany

17:00 SCI-PS115.02 - Highlights of studies at DLR and LMU based on aircraft observations during T PARC Martin Weissmann1, Florian Harnisch1, Kathrin Folger1, 1Hans-Ertel-Centre for

Weather Research, LMU, Munich, Germany

40 Sunday, August 17 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

17:20 SCI-PS115.03 - Results of airborne observations in the framework of THORPEX and an outlook to T-NAWDEX 2016 Andreas Schäfler1, Maxi Boettcher2, George Craig3, Andreas Dörnbrack1, Christian Grams2, Florian Harnisch4, Uwe Marksteiner1, Marc Rautenhaus5, Heini Wernli2, 1Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany, 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 3Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians- Universität, München, Germany, 4Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Reserach, Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, Germany, 5Computer Graphics and Visualisation Group, Technische Universität München,

Garching, Germany

17:40 SCI-PS115.04 - An interactive method to predict warm conveyor belt occurrence for aircraft-based field campaigns Marc Rautenhaus1, Christian M. Grams2, Andreas Schäfler3, Rüdiger Westermann1, 1Computer Graphics and Visualization Group, Technische Universität München, Garching, Germany, 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 3Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt,

Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

SCI-PS116 Room 520 C 16:30 - 18:00 ODA - New technologies and observation instrumentation innovations: from urban to global scales.

Chair: Susanne Crewell

16:30 SCI-PS116.01 - The OQ-Net VHF radar wind profiler network: Comparisons with winds from radiosondes and NWP models Peter Taylor1, Wayne Hocking2, Zheng Qi Wang1, Mathew Corkum1, Shama Sharma1, Lisa Alexander1, 1Lassonde School of Engineering, York University, 2 Toronto, Canada, University of Western Ontario, London, Canada

17:00 SCI-PS116.02 - Raman lidar and microwave radiometry synergy for high vertically resolved temperature and water vapor profiles Maria Barrera-Verdejo1, Susanne Crewell1, Ulrich Löhnert1, Bjorn Stevens2, Emiliano Orlandi1, Paolo Di Girolamo3, 1Universität zu Köln, Cologne, Germany, 2Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, 3Università della

Basilicata, Potenza, Italy

17:20 SCI-PS116.03 - Continuous water vapor profiling with a diode-laser-based Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) Scott Spuler1, Bruce Morley1, Kevin Repasky2, Drew Moen2, Amin Nehrir3, 1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA, 2Montana State 3 University, Bozeman, USA, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, USA

17:40 SCI-PS116.04 - CICERO: A cellular observing system for weather data acquisition Thomas Yunck1, Gottfried Kirchengast2, Conrad Lautenbacher1, Marco Villa1, 1 2 GeoOptics Inc., Pasadena, USA, University of Graz, Graz, Austria

41 Sunday, August 17 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS117 Room 520 D 16:30 - 18:00 ODA - Observations and their assimilation in global to convective scale models

Chair: Florence Rabier

16:30 SCI-PS117.01 - Application of satellite land measurements in improving NCEP numerical weather prediction Weizhong Zheng1,2, Michael Ek1, Helin Wei1,2, Jesse Meng1,2, Jiarui Dong1,2, John Derber1, Xiwu Zhan3, Jicheng Liu3,4, 1NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, USA, 2IMSG at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, USA, 3NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, 4 College Park, USA, GMU, Fairfax, USA

17:00 SCI-PS117.02 - Recent progress and perspective on the observation data use in JMA NWP 1 1 Yoshiaki Sato , Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

17:20 SCI-PS117.03 - A case study of adaptive observation technique in a UAS OSSE on hurricane track Hongli Wang1, Yuanfu Xie2, Zoltan Toth2, 1Colorado State University, NOAA 2 ESRL/GSD, Boulder, USA, NOAA ESRL/GSD, Boulder, USA

17:40 SCI-PS117.04 - Downscaling FY3-MWRI soil moisture integrating FY3- VIRR/MERSI visible/infrared data Lixin Dong1, Shihao Tang1, 1National Satellite Meteorological Center, Beijing,

China

SCI-PS118 Room 520 E 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Clouds and radiation

Chair: Graeme Stephens

16:30 SCI-PS118.01 - High definition clouds and precipitation for climate prediction –results from a unified German research initiative 1 1 Florian Rauser , Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

17:00 SCI-PS118.02 - Stationary orographic cloud bands: Dynamic and sportive interests link satellite observations with mesoscale modelling 1 1 Hans Volkert , DLR-IPA, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

17:20 SCI-PS118.03 - A new approach for parameterizing cloud microphysics based on prediction of ice particle properties Jason Milbrandt1, Hugh Morrison2, 1Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA

17:40 SCI-PS118.04 - Evaluation of coupled versus uncoupled cloud physics and radiation in WRF Gregory Thompson1, Mukul Tewari1, Kyoko Ikeda1, Sarah Tessendorf1, Jason Otkin2, Fanyou Kong3, 1NCAR-RAL, Boulder, USA, 2CIMSS/U. Wisconsin, 3 Madison, USA, OU-CAPS, Norman, USA

42 Sunday, August 17 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS119 Room 518 B-C 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions

Chair: Jim Doyle

16:30 SCI-PS119.01 - Upscale error growth in simulations with resolved and (stochastically) parametrized convection: A comparison Tobias Selz1, George Craig1, 1Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München,

Germany

17:00 SCI-PS119.02 - Predictability and error growth dynamics of moist baroclinic waves under varying baroclinic and convective instabilities Yongqiang Sun1, Fuqing Zhang1, 1The Penn State University, State College,

USA

17:20 SCI-PS119.03 - Diabatic processes in extratropical cyclones: Dynamics and relevance for forecast accuracy 1 1 Heini Wernli , ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

17:40 SCI-PS119.04 - Impacts on extended-range predictability of midlatitude weather patterns due to recurving tropical cyclones Patrick Harr1, Heather Archambault1, 1Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey,

USA

SCI-PS120 Room 519 A 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Tropical cyclones and tropical convection

Chair: Chris Davis

16:30 SCI-PS120.01 - Necessary conditions for intensification of tropical cyclones: The role of mesoscale systems and convective intensity 1 1 Edward Zipser , University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA

17:00 SCI-PS120.02 - Convective and Vortex-scale interactions during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010) Robert Rogers1, Paul Reasor1, Jun Zhang2, 1NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research 2 Division, Miami, USA, Univeristy of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, USA

17:20 SCI-PS120.03 - Intensification of a sheared tropical cyclone in a WRF Simulation: The evolution of a mesovortex 1 1 1 Leon Nguyen , John Molinari , University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, USA

17:40 SCI-PS120.04 - Eyewall convection during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Rita (2005) Michael Bell1, Annette Foerster1, Shannon McElhinney1, 1University of Hawaii,

Honolulu, USA

43 Sunday, August 17 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS121 Room 519 B 16:30 - 18:00 WHI - Development of applications in the forecasting process

Chair: Paul Joe

16:30 SCI-PS121.01 - Mesoscale Networks and the third dimension: Historical perspectives and future prospectus 1 1 Walter F. Dabberdt , Vaisala Group, Boulder, USA

17:00 SCI-PS121.02 - Nowcasting in data sparse regions Estelle de Coning1, Morne Gijben1, Bathobile Maseko1, Cassandra Pringle1, 1 1 Louis van Hemert , South African Weather Service, Pretoria, South Africa

17:20 SCI-PS121.03 - The German polarimetric weather radar network: the new radar data processing chain Jörg Steinert1, Nils Rathmann1, Manuel Werner1, Patrick Tracksdorf1, Michael 2 1 2 Frech , DWD, Offenbach, Germany, DWD, Hohenpeißenberg, Germany

17:40 SCI-PS121.04 - Towards collaborative developments applied to meteorology Sandrine Edouard1, Daniel Figueras-Nieto1, François Fortin1, Marc Klasa1, Luc Pelletier1, Guylaine Hardy1, Neil Taylor1, Philip Mann1, Maryse Beauchemin1, 1 1 Gérard Croteau , Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

UAS-PS307 Room 524 A 16:30 - 18:00 Transportation impacts, applications, and decision-making

Chair: Atte Harjanne

16:40 UAS-PS307.01 - Moving towards a resilient transport network for the future: integrating meteorology, engineering and social perspectives 1 1 Andrew Quinn , University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK

17:00 UAS-PS307.02 - Attenuating disruptive effects of bad weather on air travel – minimizing stranded travelers Adriaan Perrels1, Claus Doll2, Mitsakis Evangelos3, Atte Harjanne1, David Jaroszewski4, Michael Kreuz5, Kaisu Loikkanen6, Iraklis Stamos3, Anne Temme5, Anu Tuominen6, 1Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki, Finland, 2Fraunhofer Institute for Systems Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany, 3Hellenic Institute for Transport (CERTH-HIT), Thessaloniki, Greece, 4University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom, 5German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Braunschweig, Germany, 6Technical Research Centre of Finland

(VTT), Espoo & Tampere, Finland

17:20 UAS-PS307.03 - Winter severity indices and road maintenance Jean Andrey1, Lindsay Matthews1, Derrick Hambly1, Brian Mills2, 1University of 2 Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada, Environment Canada, Waterloo, Canada,

17:40 UAS-PS307.04 - The Pikalert Road weather hazard forecast system 1 1 Sheldon Drobot , NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA

44 Sunday, August 17 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

UAS-PS308 Room 524 B 16:30 - 18:00 Agricultural impacts, applications, and decision-making

Chair: Khan Rahaman

16:40 UAS-PS308.01 - Cost of climate variability and change to farmers in rural India: A spatio-temporal analysis Mamta Mehra1, Nihar Jangle1, David Dror1, Sonu Aggarwal2, 1Micro Insurance Academy, New Delhi, India, 2Weather Risk Management Services Limited, New

Delhi, India

17:00 UAS-PS308.02 - Determinants of farm-level adaptation diversity to climate extremes: Insights from farm households in India Chandra Bahinipati1, 1Gujarat Institute of Development Research, Ahmedabad,

India

17:20 UAS-PS308.03 - Integrated Interdisciplinary approach to drought risks and water management Heather Lazrus1, Debasish PaiMazumder1, Erin Towler1, 1NCAR, Boulder, CO,

USA

17:40 UAS-PS308.04 - Community-based solutions for weather-related agricultural risk mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa 1 1 Million Aytenfisu , University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada

UAS-PS309 Room 524 C 16:30 - 18:00 Special Session on the future of the weather enterprise

Chair: Brian Mills

16:40 UAS-PS309.01 - Unidata’s vision for Transforming Geoscience by moving data services and software to the Cloud 1 1 Mohan Ramamurthy , Unidata/UCAR, Boulder, CO, USA

17:00 UAS-PS309.02 - Engaging stakeholders as part of the MSC Services Strategy Grace Koshida1, Jamie Smith1, Ken Macdonald1, 1Environment Canada,

Meteorological Service of Canada, Ottawa, Canada

17:20 UAS-PS309.03 - Providing an increasing range of CMC Numerical Environmental & Weather Prediction to expert users Richard Hogue1, André Méthot1, 1Canadian Centre for Meteorological and

Environmental Prediction, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, Canada

17:40 UAS-PS309.04 - Weather, water and food security Tom Beer1, Jianping Li2, Keith Alverson3, 1CAWCR, Melbourne, Australia, 2 3 Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, Beijing, China, UNEP, Nairoi, Kenya

45 Sunday, August 17 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-SPL02 Room 517 C-D 18:00 - 19:30 Townhall meeting on Seamless Meteorology Chair: Alan Thorpe

The theme of WWOSC2014 is seamless prediction and this refers to both predicting the meteorology of the atmospheric system with the same approach on all time-scales and to predicting non-meteorological aspects of the system such as atmospheric composition and flooding in an integrated way. Referring to this as seamless meteorology is to contrast with the modern fashion to instead use the phrase “weather and climate”. In this Townhall meeting we aim to discuss how various aspects of what it might take to establish a seamless approach to the science, prediction and use of such information.

Panelists:

Christof Appenzeller, Federal Office Of Meteorology And Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich Switzerland

Veronique Bouchet, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Canada Estelle de Coning, South African Weather Service, Pretoria, South Africa Randall Dole, NOAA ESRL/PSD, Boulder, USA Hans Joachim Koppert, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany Brian Mills, Environment Canada, Waterloo, Canada Jae-Cheol Nam, Korea Meteorological Agency, Seoul, Korea Tim Palmer , Oxford University, Oxford, UK

46 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

07:30 – 18:00 Registration Open Viger Hall

WW-JPL03 08:30 - 10:00 WWOSC Joint Plenary Room 517 C-D Chairs: Rebecca Morss and Heini Wernli

08:30 WW-JPL03.01 - How social sciences are and are not being woven into meteorological science 1 1 Eve Gruntfest , Trauma, Health and Hazards Center, Colorado Springs, USA

09:15 WW-JPL03.02 - Advances in global numerical weather prediction and future prospects 1 1 Alan Thorpe , ECMWF, Reading, UK

10:00 - 17:00 Exhibit Hall Open Room 220 D-E

10:00 - 10:30 Morning Break in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

SCI-PS122 Room 520 F 10:30 - 12:00 ISS - Land-Atmosphere interactions and water cycle

Chair: Paul Dirmeyer

10:30 SCI-PS122.01 - Impact of weather and climate variability on terrestrial fluxes: integration of EO data into models Jean-Christophe Calvet1, Gianpaolo Balsamo2, Alina Barbu1, Alessandro Cescatti3, Sébastien Lafont1, Fabienne Maignan4, Dario Papale5, Camille Szczypta1, Balazs Szintai6, Bart van den Hurk7, 1CNRM-GAME (Meteo-France, CNRS), Toulouse, France, 2ECMWF, Reading, UK, 3IES (DG-JRC), Ispra, Italy, 4LSCE (CEA, CNRS), Gif-sur-Yvette, France, 5Tuscia University, Viterbo, Italy, 6OMSZ (Hungarian Meteorological Service), Budapest, Hungary, 7KNMI (Dutch

Meteorological Service), De Built, The Netherlands

11:00 SCI-PS122.02 - The effect of Interannul climate variability on the methane emissions of tropical wetlands Changhui Peng1, Qiuan Zhu2, 1Centre ESCER/CEF, University of Quebec at 2 Montreal, Canada, Northwest A&F University, Shaanxi, China

11:20 SCI-PS122.03 - Near-neutral atmospheric conditions over boreal wetlands improve the estimation of daily evapotranspiration in remote areas Pierre-Erik Isabelle1, Daniel F. Nadeau2, Alain N. Rousseau1, Carole Coursolle3, Hank A. Margolis3, 1INRS - Eau, Terre et Environnement, Quebec City, Canada, 2Polytechnique Montreal, Montreal, Canada, 3Universite Laval,

Quebec City, Canada

11:40 SCI-PS122.04 - Modifications of the atmospheric moisture field as a result of cold-pool dynamics Linda Schlemmer1, Cathy Hohenegger1, 1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,

Hamburg, Germany

47 Monday, August 18 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS123 Room 519 A 10:30 - 12:00 ISS - Cryosphere-Ocean-Atmosphere, Coupling & Interaction

Chair: Sophie Valcke

10:30 SCI-PS123.01 - From climate to weather: air-sea coupling scales 1 1 Baylor Fox-Kemper , Brown University, Providence, USA

11:00 SCI-PS123.02 - The impact of well resolved air-sea coupling on global weather extremes. Linda Hirons1, Nicholas Klingaman1, Steve Woolnough1, 1University of Reading,

Reading, UK

11:20 SCI-PS123.03 - Global Coupled Atmosphere/Ocean Model for Seasonal and Climate Forecast Applications at NOAA/ESRL Shan Sun1, Georg Grell1, Rainer Bleck2,1, Stan Benjamin1, 1NOAA/ESRL, 2 Boulder, USA, NASA/GISS, Boulder, USA

11:40 SCI-PS123.04 - Why a warmer ocean might mean less rain Timothy Hewson1, Benedetta Dini2, Ian Boutle2, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK, 2Met

Office, Exeter, UK

SCI-PS124 Room 519 B 10:30 - 12:00 NPE - Cross-cutting research on verification techniques

Chair: Munehiko Yamaguchi

10:30 SCI-PS124.01 - Demonstrating a strategy for verifying km-scale NWP forecasts at observing sites 1 1 Marion Mittermaier , Met Office, Exeter, UK

11:00 SCI-PS124.02 - Forecast verification framework and some early results of the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics Pertti Nurmi1, Matias Brockmann1, Sigbritt Näsman1, 1Finnish Meteorological

Institute, Helsinki, Finland

11:20 SCI-PS124.03 - A wavelet-based verification approach to account for the variation in sparseness of gauge observation networks Barbara Casati1, Vincent Fortin1, Laurence Wilson1, Laurence Wilson1, 1 Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

11:40 SCI-PS124.04 - Points and pixels, gage and sky: Choosing the right observations to verify forecasts Edward Tollerud1, Tara Jensen2, Kirk Holub3, John Halley Gotway2, 1CIRA and ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, USA, 2DTC and NCAR, Boulder, USA, 3ESRL/NOAA,

Boulder, USA

48 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS125 Room 518 B-C 10:30 - 12:00 NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Global and medium- range aspects

Chair: Erland Kallen

10:30 SCI-PS125.01 - Environment Canada's approach to global numerical weather and environmental prediction: a 10-year plan Martin Charron1, 1Recherche en prévision numérique atmosphérique, Dorval,

Canada

11:00 SCI-PS125.02 - Performance of forecasts for severe weather 1 1 Linus Magnusson , ECMWF, Reading, UK

11:20 SCI-PS125.03 - Sensitivity of NCEP GFS forecast of Hurricane Sandy to model configuration and supplemental radiosondes 1 1 Fanglin Yang , NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, USA

11:40 SCI-PS125.04 - Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts: a review 1 1 Thomas Hamill , NOAA ESRL, Boulder, Colorado

SCI-PS126 Room 524 A 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools

Chair: Jeffrey Anderson

10:30 SCI-PS126.01 - Accounting for correlated AMSU-A observation errors in an Ensemble Kalman Filter Pieter Houtekamer1, Mikhail Tsyrulnikov2, Herschel Mitchell1, 1Meteorological Research Branch, Montreal, Canada, 2HydroMeteorological Center of Russia,

Moscow, Russia

11:00 SCI-PS126.02 - Application of the WRF – LETKF System over Southern South America: Sensitivity to model physics. Maria Eugenia Dillon1,2, Yanina Garcia Skabar1,2, Juan Ruiz3,4, Eugenia Kalnay5, Estela Collini2,6, Pablo Echevarria2, Marcos Saucedo3,4,7, Takemasa Miyoshi8, 1Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones científicas y técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2Departamento de Investigación y Desarrollo, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 3UMI- Instituto Franco Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 4Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, FCEyN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 5Dept of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, U. S., 6Servicio de Hidrografía Naval, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 7Centro de Investigación del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Buenos Aires, 8 Argentina, RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Japan

11:20 SCI-PS126.03 - Environment Canada's regional ensemble Kalman Filter Analysis and Prediction System Seung-Jong Baek1,2, Luc Fillion1, Peter Houtekamer1, Kao-Shen Chung1,2, Thomas Milewski1, Amin Erfani1, Normand Gagnon1, Ronald Frenette1, Martin Charron1, 1Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2McGill University, Montreal,

Canada

49 Monday, August 18 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

11:40 SCI-PS126.04 - Comparison of GSI-based EnKF and 3DVar for multi-scale data assimilation and prediction of continental convection Aaron Johnson1, Xuguang Wang1, 1School of Meteorology, University of

Oklahoma, Norman, USA

SCI-PS127 Room 520 C 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - New technologies and observation instrumentation innovations: from urban to global scales.

Chair: Louis Garand

10:30 SCI-PS127.01 - A future ground-based network of thermodynamic boundary layer profilers: The infrared spectrometer option David D. Turner1, W. Greg Blumberg2, 1National Severe Storms Laboratory / 2 NOAA, Norman, USA, University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA

11:00 SCI-PS127.02 - European ceilometer and Doppler lidar network for operational boundary layer monitoring Anne Hirsikko1, Ewan J. O´Connor2,3, Martial Haffelin4, Jan H. Schween5, Volker Lehmann6, Anthony Illingworth3, 1Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany, 2Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, 3University of Reading, Reading, UK, 4Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) – CNRS/E. Polytechnique, Paris, France, 5University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany, 6 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Lindenberg, Germany

11:20 SCI-PS127.03 - Operational ground-based remote sensing of wind: Experiences from the European wind profiler network CWINDE Volker Lehmann1, Ronny Leinweber1, Eileen Päschke1, Stefan Klink2, Alexander Haefele3, Giovanni Martucci3, Myles Turp4, 1DWD, Meteorologisches Observatorium Lindenberg, Germany, 2EUMETNET c/o DWD Offenbach, 3 4 Germany, MeteoSwiss, Payerne, Switzerland, UK MetOffice, Exeter, UK

11:40 SCI-PS127.04 - A system for monitoring in-situ soil moisture in Canada’s agricultural landscapes. Allan Howard1, Heather McNairn2, Jessika L'Heureux3, Catherine Champagne2, Jarrett Powers4, Aston Chipanshi1, Stephane Belair5, 1Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Regina, Canada, 2Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, Canada, 3Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Calgary, Canada, 4Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Winnipeg, Canada, 5Environment Canada,

Dorval, Canada

SCI-PS128 Room 520 D 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - Observations and their assimilation in global to convective scale models Chair: Annika Schomburg

10:30 SCI-PS128.01 - Convective-Scale Data Assimilation 1 1 Dale Barker , Met Office, Exeter, UK

11:00 SCI-PS128.02 - ACCESS convective scale data assimilation Peter Steinle1, Susan Rennie1, Xingbao Wang1, Yi Xiao1, Justin Peter1, Alan 1 1 1 Seed , Mark Curtis , CAWCR, Melbourne, Australia

50 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

11:20 SCI-PS128.03 - Various strategies to increase temporal frequency in the AROME-France Convective-Scale Data-Assimilation System 1 1 1 Ludovic Auger , Pierre Brousseau , Meteo-France, Toulouse, France

11:40 SCI-PS128.04 - Super high-resolution mesoscale NWP with the K-computer Kazuo Saito1,2, Hiromu Seko1,2, Masaru Kunii1, Takuya Kawabata1, Seiji Origuchi1, Tohru Kuroda2,1, Le Duc2,1, Kosuke Ito2,1, Tsutao Oizumi2,1, Guixing Chen3, 1Meteorological Research Insitute, Tsukuba, Japan, 2Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, 3Tohoku University,

Sendai, Japan

SCI-PS129 Room 520 E 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Atmospheric and oceanic composition (processes, physics, modelling)

Chair: Veronique Bouchet

10:30 SCI-PS129.01 - Coupled meteorology-chemistry models: needs and benefits for numerical weather prediction, air quality and climate communities Alexander Baklanov1, Heinke Schluenzen2, Sylvain Joffre3, Peter Suppan4, Jose Baldasano5, Dominik Brunner6, Michael Gauss7, Alberto Maurizi8, Christian Seigneur9, Xin Kong10, 1Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark / World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany, 3Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, 4Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch, Germany, 5Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain, 6EMPA, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Switzerland, 7Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Bergen, Norway, 8Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Italy, 9 10 CEREA, France, University of Hertfordshire, UK

11:00 SCI-PS129.02 - A study of feedbacks between weather and air-pollution using GEM-MACH Paul Makar1, Wanmin Gong1, Sylvie Gravel Jason Mibrant2, Christian Hogrefe3, Yang Zhang4, Gabriele Curci5, Rahela Zabkar6, Stefano Galmarini, Ulas Im7, Roberto Bianconi8, Balbir Pabla, Junhua Zhang, Mike Moran, Amy Hou, Philip Cheung1, 1Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada, 2Environment Canada, Montreal, Canada, 3Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC, USA, 4Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, USA, 5University of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy, 6University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7Joint Research Centre, European Commission, 8 Ispra, Italy, Enviroware (www.enviroware.com), Milan, Italy

11:20 SCI-PS129.03 - Evaluation of meteorological models used in Phase II of AQMEII for North America 1 1 Brian Eder , U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, USA

11:40 SCI-PS129.04 - Influence of wild land fires on atmospheric dynamics and air quality: A process study with the modelling system COSMO-MUSCAT Ralf Wolke1, Detlef Hinneburg1, Wolfram Schroeder1, 1Leibniz Institut for

Tropospheric Research (TROPOS), Leipzig, Germany

51 Monday, August 18 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS130 Room 520 A 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions

Chair: Suzanne Gray

10:30 SCI-PS130.01 - The influence of tropical cyclones on the predictability of mid-latitude weather systems Sarah Jones1,2, Doris Anwender2, Patrick Harr3, Simon Lang2,4, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 2Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, 3 4 Germany, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA, ECMWF, Reading, UK

11:00 SCI-PS130.02 - Sensitivity of the downstream impact to the eddy kinetic energy budget of transitioning tropical cyclones Julia H. Keller1, Sarah C. Jones1, 1German Meteorological Service, Offenbach,

Germany

11:20 SCI-PS130.03 - Tropical cyclone – Rossby Wave Train interaction in idealized scenarios of extratropical transition Michael Riemer1, Sarah C. Jones2, 1Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Mainz, 2 Germany, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

11:40 SCI-PS130.04 - The Influence of extratropical transition on poleward Rossby Wave breaking Lisa-Ann Quandt1, Julia Keller2, Sarah Jones2, Andrea Schneidereit3, Dieter Peters3, 1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 3Institute of Atmospheric Physics,

Kühlungsborn, Germany

SCI-PS131 Room 520 B 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Tropical cyclones and tropical convection

Chair: Benjamin Green

10:30 SCI-PS131.01 - Tropical cyclone formation: findings from PREDICT 1 1 1 Christopher Davis , David Ahijevych , NCAR, Boulder, USA

11:00 SCI-PS131.02 - Secondary eyewall formation in tropical cyclones: unbalanced dynamics within and just above the boundary layer Chun-Chieh Wu1, Yi-Hsuan Huang1, Shin-Ping Kuan1, Yuan-Ming Cheng1, 1 National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

11:20 SCI-PS131.03 - Asymmetric convective bursts and the problem of hurricane intensification. 1 1 1 Konstantinos Menelaou , M.K. Yau , McGill University, Montreal, Canada

11:40 SCI-PS131.04 - The structure and dynamics of coherent vortices in the eyewall boundary layer of tropical cyclones 1 1 1 Daniel Stern , George Bryan , NCAR, Boulder, USA

52 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS132 Room 524 B 10:30 - 12:00 PPP - Polar Prediction Project

Chair: Jonny Day

10:30 SCI-PS132.01 - Processes influencing predictability of sea ice on subseasonal and longer timescales 1 1 Marika Holland , NCAR, Boulder, USA

11:00 SCI-PS132.02 - What causes foehn warming? – The Antarctic Peninsula as a natural laboratory 1 1 1 Andrew Elvidge , Ian Renfrew , UEA, Norwich, UK

11:20 SCI-PS132.03 - The influence of stochastic sea ice parameterization on potential polar predictability Stephan Juricke1, Helge F. Goessling1, Thomas Jung1, 1Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven,

Germany

11:40 SCI-PS132.04 - The dynamics of polar lows in reverse shear 1 1 1 Annick Terpstra , Thomas Spengler , University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

SCI-PS133 Room 524 C 10:30 - 12:00 S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project

Chair: Frederic Vitart

10:30 SCI-PS133.01 - Recent advances and challenges in sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions: predictability, dynamical and physical processes Gilbert Brunet2, Hai Lin1, Adam Scaife2, 1Environment Canada, Montreal, 2 Canada, Met Office, Exeter, UK

11:00 SCI-PS133.02 - Seasonal predictability over Europe arising from El Niño and stratospheric variability Daniela Domeisen1, Amy Butler2, Kristina Fröhlich3, Wolfgang Müller4, Johanna Baehr1, 1University of Hamburg, Institute of Oceanography, Hamburg, Germany, 2NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, USA, 3Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 4Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,

Hamburg, Germany

11:20 SCI-PS133.03 - Potential predictability, practical prediction skill, and ensemble dispersion of MJO in operational forecasting systems Hyemi Kim1, Peter Webster2, Violeta Toma2, Daehyun Kim3, 1Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, USA, 2Georgia Institute of Tech., Atlanta, USA, 3 University of Washington, Seattle, USA

11:40 SCI-PS133.04 - MJO hindcasts with the Super-parameterized CCSM4 1 1 Cristiana Stan , George Mason University, Fairfax, USA

53 Monday, August 18 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

UAS-PA401 Room 517 C-D 10:30 - 12:00 Collaboration across disciplinary and practitioner boundaries: Breaking barriers and building bridges

Chair: Eve Gruntfest

Panelists representing a range of academic disciplines and/or professions will discuss how they define, approach, analyze, and address weather- related problems and the merits and challenges of doing so in collaboration with people from other fields and occupations. The feedback will be used to guide the direction of future research, applications and services.

Panelists: Linda Anderson-Berry, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia Emma Porio, Ateneo de Manila University, Manila, Philippines

Jeff Lazo, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA Celeste Saulo, National Weather Service, Buenos Aires, Argentina

12:00 - 13:30 Lunch in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

UAS-PA402 Room 522 A-B 12:00 - 13:30 Special discussion panel on the WMO/WB/CSP guidance document on Assessing the Socio-economic Benefits of Meteorological and Hydrological Services

Chair: Brian Mills

A guidance document is being developed for National Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services (NMHS) and other organizations to assist them in the assessment of the socio-economic benefits of weather, water and climate services. The work is a combined effort of economists, social scientists, and meteorological experts affiliated with the WMO, World Bank, and Climate Services Partnership. The special session will be used to review the status of the report and to engage the audience in a discussion of practical and methodological issues associated with the application of recommended assessment techniques, and the communication of results.

Panelists: Adriaan Perrels, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

Jeff Lazo, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA

54 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS134 Room 518 B-C 13:30 - 15:00 NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Global and medium- range aspects

Chair: Bill Lapenta

13:30 SCI-PS134.01 - The ECMWF coupled Ensemble: from medium to extended range forecasts Frederic Vitart1, Roberto Buizza1, Franco Molteni1, Martin Leutbecher1, 1 ECMWF, Reading, UK

14:00 SCI-PS134.02 - Implementation of a new dynamical core in the Met Office Unified Model 1 1 Andrew Brown , Met Office, Exeter, UK

14:20 SCI-PS134.03 - Skill improvements in the ECMWF forecasting system 1 1 1 1 Erland Källén , Linus Magnusson , András Horányi , ECMWF, Reading, UK

14:40 SCI-PS134.04 - Seamless prediction from the surface to the exobase: First Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) medium-range forecasts Houjun Wang1, Rashid Akmaev2, Fei Wu1, Jun Wang3, 1University of Colorado, Boulder, USA, 2NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, USA, 3NCEP

Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, USA

SCI-PS135 Room 524 A 13:30 - 15:00 ODA - Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools

Chair: Mark Buehner

13:30 SCI-PS135.01 - The gig filter and its potential use in Earth-system analysis and prediction 1 1 Craig Bishop , Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, USA

14:00 SCI-PS135.02 - How do model error and localization approaches affect model parameter estimation in the LETKF? Juan Ruiz1, Takemasa Miyoshi2, Masaru Kunii3, 1University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, 3 Kobe, Japan, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

14:20 SCI-PS135.03 - 4-Dimensional Ensemble Variational data assimilation for LAM Jelena Bojarova1, Nils Gustafsson2, Magnus Lindskog2, Tomas Landelius2, 1Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, 2Swedish Meteorological and

Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

14:40 SCI-PS135.04 - Rapid, short-term ensemble forecast adjustment through offline data assimilation 1 1 1 Luke Madaus , Gregory Hakim , University of Washington, Seattle, USA

55 Monday, August 18 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS136 Room 524 B 13:30 - 15:00 ODA - Observations and assimilation of atmospheric constituents

Chair: Vincent-Henri Peuch

13:30 SCI-PS136.01 - Measurement of atmospheric constituents from space: history and state-of-art Pawan Bhartia1, Omar Torres1, Nickolay Krotkov1, Richard McPeters1, 1NASA

Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA

14:00 SCI-PS136.02 - International study group on the added value of chemical data assimilation in the stratosphere Richard Menard1, Quentin Errera2, 1Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2 Belgium Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium

14:20 SCI-PS136.03 - Transport and dispersion patterns of aerosols over the East African region using AOD data Daniel Mbithi1, John Muthama2, Franklin Opijah2, Gilbert Ouma2, 1Kenya 2 Meteorological Services, Nanyuki, Kenya, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya

14:40 SCI-PS136.04 - Variability in aerosol optical depth and its relationship with meteorological parameters over mega-city Lahore (Pakistan) 1 1 Salman Tariq , University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan

SCI-PS137 Room 524 C 13:30 - 15:00 ODA - Observations and their assimilation in global to convective scale models

Chair: Zoltan Toth

13:30 SCI-PS137.01 - Recent activities on “Big Data Assimilation” in Japan Takemasa Miyoshi1, Masaru Kunii2, Juan Ruiz1,3, Hiromu Seko2, Shinsuke Satoh4, Tomoo Ushio5, Yutaka Ishikawa6, Hirofumi Tomita1, Kotaro Bessho7, 1RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan, 2Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, 3University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 4National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Tokyo, Japan, 5Osaka University, Osaka, Japan, 6University of 7 Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, Meteorological Satellite Center, Tokyo, Japan

14:00 SCI-PS137.02 - How temporally representative are synoptic observations? 1 1 Marion Mittermaier , Met Office, Exeter, UK

14:20 SCI-PS137.03 - AROME-WMED, a real-time mesoscale model designed for the HyMeX Special Observation Periods Nadia Fourrie1, Emilie Bresson1, Mathieu Nuret1, Cassandre Jany1, Pierre Brousseau1, Alexis Doerenbecher1, Michael Kreitz2, Hervé Benichou2, Marielle Amodei2, Francis Pouponneau2, 1CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France and CNRS, 2 Toulouse, France, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France

14:40 SCI-PS137.04 - Improving vortex scale hurricane prediction using the hybrid EnKF-Var data assimilation method 1 1 1 Xuguang Wang , Xu Lu , University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA

56 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS138 Room 519 A 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Atmospheric and oceanic composition (processes, physics, modelling)

Chair: Alexander Baklanov

13:30 SCI-PS138.01 - Predictability study using the Environment Canada Chemical Data Assimilation (EC CDA) system Jean de Grandpre1, Yves J. Rochon2, Richard Menard1, 1Environment Canada, 2 Dorval, Canada, Environment Canada, Downsview, Canada

14:00 SCI-PS138.02 - Model evaluation of meteorological processes important for North African dust emission Stephanie Fiedler1, Kerstin Schepanski2, Peter Knippertz3, Bernd Heinold2, Nicolas Bellouin4, Ina Tegen2, Stephanie Woodward5, 1University of Leeds, Leeds, UK, 2Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig, Germany, 3Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 4University of Reading, 5 Reading, UK, UK Met Office, Exeter, UK

14:20 SCI-PS138.03 - Physiochemical and optical characteristics of aerosols observed in South Korea Seungbum Kim1, Sang-Sam Lee1, Jeong-Eun Kim1, Ju-Wan Cha1, Beom- Cheol Shin1, Eunha Lim1, Jae-Cheol Nam1, 1National Institute of Meteorological

Research/Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea

14:40 SCI-PS138.04 - Distribution of tropospheric ozone over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Mayra Oyola1, Everette Joseph1, Nicholas Nalli2, Cassie Stearns1, Vernon Morris1, Anne Thompson3, Adrian Flores1, Christopher Barnet2, Dan Wolfe4, 1Howard University, Washington, USA, 2NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, College Park, USA, 3NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, USA, 4 NOAA/PSD, Boulder, USA

SCI-PS139 Room 519 B 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions

Chair: Carolyn Reynolds

13:30 SCI-PS139.01 - Dynamics of Rossby Wave Trains in a quantitative PV-Θ framework Franziska Gierth1, Michael Riemer1, Volkmar Wirth1, 1Johannes Gutenberg-

University, Mainz, Germany

14:00 SCI-PS139.02 - Added value to the investigation of Rossby wave-trains by using the wave activity flux diagnostic Gabriel Wolf1, Volkmar Wirth1, 1Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz,

Germany

14:20 SCI-PS139.03 - Triggering mechanisms of Rossby Wave Trains terminating in Western Europe and the sensible weather impact 1 1 1 Richard Moore , Colin Thornton , Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA

57 Monday, August 18 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

14:40 SCI-PS139.04 - Object-based forecast verification tool for Rossby waveguides Paraskevi Giannakaki1, Olivia Martius1, 1Oeschger Centre for Climate Change

Research & Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

SCI-PS140 Room 520 A 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Tropical cyclones and tropical convection

Chair: Suzanna Camargo

13:30 SCI-PS140.01 - Predictability and data assimilation of tropical cyclones 1 1 Fuqing Zhang , Penn State University, University Park, USA

14:00 SCI-PS140.02 - Sensitivity of WRF to physical parameterization: A case study on Haiyan over the Philippines Mark Daryl Ramos1, Karl Anton Retumban1, Jay Samuel Combinido1, Gay 1 1 Jane Perez , University of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines

14:20 SCI-PS140.03 - Predicting tropical cyclone intensity forecast error 1 1 1 Kieran Bhatia , David Nolan , University of Miami, Miami, USA

14:40 SCI-PS140.04 - Application of ensemble forecasts to investigate tropical cyclone intensity changes: Hurricane Katia (2011) Rosimar Rios-Berrios1, Ryan D. Torn1, 1University at Albany, State University of

New York, Albany, USA

SCI-PS141 Room 520 B 13:30 - 15:00 PPP - Polar Prediction Project

Chair: Marika Holland

13:30 SCI-PS141.01 - The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) David Bromwich1, Jordan Powers2, Kevin Manning2, 1Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, USA, 2National Center for Atmospheric

Research, Boulder, USA

14:00 SCI-PS141.02 - Weather service in the Dronning Maud Land and beyond Gert König-Langlo1, Bernd Loose1, Holger Schmithüsen1, Thomas Schmidt2, Milan Klöwer3, Simone Heupel Santos4, 1Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany, 2Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory, Oldenburg University, Oldenburg, Germany, 3GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany, 4Institute of Landscape Ecology, University

of Münster, Münster, Germany

14:20 SCI-PS141.03 - Concordiasi Dropsondes: Improved characterization of errors in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System James Russell1, David Parsons1, Steven Cavallo1, 1School of Meteorology,

University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA

14:40 SCI-PS141.04 - Ensemble data assimilation in a mesoscale model during CONCORDIASI (2010) Christopher Riedel1, Matt Elliot1, Steven Cavallo1, 1University of Oklahoma,

Norman, USA

58 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS142 Room 520 C 13:30 - 15:00 S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project

Chair: Andrew Robertson

13:30 SCI-PS142.01 - Stationary wave driving as a potential mechanism to exploit for extratropical S2S prediction 1 1 Paul Kushner , University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada

14:00 SCI-PS142.02 - Towards a U.S. national earth system prediction capability Daniel Eleuterio1, Jessie Carman2, David McCarren3, Frederick Toepfer4, 1Office of Naval Research, Arlington, USA, 2National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Silver Spring, USA, 3Naval Meterology and Oceanography Command, Stennis Space Center, USA, 4National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service,

Silver Spring, USA

14:20 SCI-PS142.03 - Predictability of the sudden stratospheric warming of 2012- 2013 and associated skill for the surface forecast Om Tripathi1, Andrew Charlton-Perez1, Mark Baldwin2, Martin Charron3, Steven Eckermann4, Yuhiji Kuroda5, Greg Roff6, Seok-Woo Son7, David Jackson8, Edwin Edwin9, 1University of Reading, Reading, UK, 2University of Exeter, Exeter, UK, 3Environment Canada, Canada, 4Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, USA, 5Meteorological Research Institute, Japan, 6Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, 7Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea, 8Met 9 Office, Exeter, UK, New York University, New York, USA

14:40 SCI-PS142.04 - Influence of large-scale climate modes on atmospheric rivers that drive regional precipitation extremes Bin Guan1, Noah Molotch2,3, Duane Waliser3, Eric Fetzer3, Paul Neiman4, 1Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, USA, 2Department of Geography and Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, USA, 3Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA, 4Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder,

USA

SCI-PS143 Room 520 D 13:30 - 15:00 WHI - Development of applications in the forecasting process

Chair: Timothy Hewson

13:30 SCI-PS143.01 - Statistical interpretation of Model Output – An essential link between model and user 1 1 Laurence Wilson , Environment Canada, Montreal, Canada

14:00 SCI-PS143.02 - The future role of statistical postprocessing in weather forecasting 1 1 1 Klaus Knuepffer , Philip Lorenz , Meteo Service, Berlin, Germany

14:20 SCI-PS143.03 - Post-processing methods for probabilistic convection forecasts based on the limited-area ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of DWD Lars Wiegand1, Christoph Gebhardt1, 1German Meteorological Service,

Offenbach, Germany

59 Monday, August 18 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

14:40 SCI-PS143.04 - ModelMIX – optimal combination of NWP Model Forecasts for AutoWARN Tamas Hirsch1, Reinhold Hess1, Sebastian Trepte1, Cristina Primo1, Jenny Glashoff1, Bernhard Reichert1, Dirk Heizenreder1, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst,

Offenbach, Germany

UAS-PS313 Room 520 E 13:30 - 15:00 Understanding the perception and use of weather information in decision-making

Chair: Sebastien Nobert

13:40 UAS-PS313.01 - Flood risk and uncertainty: assessing the national weather service's flood forecast and warning tools Rachel Hogan Carr1, Burrell Montz2, 1Nurture Nature Center, Easton, PA, USA, 2 East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, USA

14:00 UAS-PS313.02 - From research to end-users services at Meteo-France Isabelle Donet1, Grégoire Pigeon1, Béatrice Pouponneau1, 1Météo-France,

Toulouse, France

14:20 UAS-PS313.03 - Communicating scientific forecasting techniques to end users for WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project Khan Rahaman1, Val Swail2, Boram Lee3, 1Wilfrid Laurier University, CAS, Brantford, Canada, 2Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada, 3World

Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland

14:40 UAS-PS313.04 - Warning decisions in extreme weather events: An integrated multi-method approach Rebecca Morss1, Jeffrey Lazo1, Ann Bostrom2, Julie Demuth1, Heather 1 1 2 Lazrus , NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

UAS-PS314 Room 520 F 13:30 - 15:00 Better ways to transfer knowledge among scientists, forecasters, and users of weather information

Chair: Eugene Poolman

13:40 UAS-PS314.01 - Driving economic development through Innovation technology in weather information application Ben Jong-Dao Jou1, Tien-Chiang Yeh2, Camyale Chao1, 1ACTS, Taipei, 2 Taiwan, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan

14:00 UAS-PS314.02 - Understanding the need of decision makers: an approach to develop better products and services Serge Desjardins1, 1National Lab for Marine and Coastal Meteorology,

Environment Canada, Halifax, Canada

14:20 UAS-PS314.03 - Crowd-sourcing for obtaining data on an extreme tornado: A new model informing meteorological research Anton Seimon1, John Allen2, 1Appalachian State University, North Carolina, USA, 2 International Research Institute for Climate and Society, New York, USA

60 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

14:40 UAS-PS314.04 - Communicating weather and impacts in remote Alaska in a new age of social media Aimee Fish1, Donald Moore1, Samuel Shea1, 1NOAA National Weather Service,

Anchorage, United States

15:00 - 16:30 Afternoon Break in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

15:00 - 16:30 Poster Session in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

SCI-PS144 Room 524 A 16:30 - 18:00 ISS - Cryosphere-Ocean-Atmosphere, Coupling & Interaction

Chair: Peter Taylor

16:30 SCI-PS144.01 - Using a novel coupled-modelling framework to reduce tropical precipitation biases Nicholas Klingaman1, Steve Woolnough1, 1University of Reading, National

Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, UK

17:00 SCI-PS144.02 - Sensitivity study of a heavy precipitating event to the sea state using convection-permitting model simulations Ophelie Thevenot1, Marie-Noelle Bouin1, Veronique Ducrocq2, Cindy Lebeaupin-Brossier2, Olivier Nuissier2, Fanny Duffourg2, 1Meteo-France/CNRM, 2 Brest, France, Meteo-France/CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France

17:20 SCI-PS144.03 - Working towards a first-ever operational coupled lake-ice- atmosphere forecasting system in Canada Sarah Dyck1, Fred Dupont1, Francois Roy2, Greg Smith2, Vincent Fortin2, Murray MacKay2, Jun Zhao3, Ram Yerubandi3, 1National Prediction Development Division, Environment Canada, Dorval,Canada, 2Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, 3Watershed Hydrology and Ecology

Research Division, Environment Canada

17:40 SCI-PS144.04 - Impact of sea ice on global coupled medium-range atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasts Ryan Muncaster1, Gregory Smith1, Francois Roy1, Jean-Marc Belanger1, Chris Subich1, Sarah Dyck2, Daniel Deacu2, Pierre Pellerin1, Harold Ritchie3, Jean- Francois Lemieux1, 1Environment Canada - Recherche en Prévision Numérique Environnementale, Dorval, Canada, 2Environment Canada - Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, Canada, 3Environment Canada - Recherche en

Prévision Numérique Environnementale, Dartmouth, Canada

61 Monday, August 18 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS146 Room 524 B 16:30 - 18:00 ODA - Observations and assimilation of atmospheric constituents

Chair: Arlindo da Silva

16:30 SCI-PS146.01 - Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of MOPITT CO Retrieval Profiles with WRF/Chem-DART Arthur Mizzi1, Ave Arellano2, David Edwards1, Jeff Anderson3, Jerome Barre1, 1Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA, 2Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA, 3Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center

for Atmospheric Research, Boulder,USA

17:00 SCI-PS146.02 - The joint Canadian-Swedish Atmospheric Limb Sounding Satellite (ALiSS) mission Doug Degenstein1, Adam Bourassa1, Donal Murtagh2, Jo Urban2, Chris McLinden3, Yves Rochon3, Thomas Piekutowski4, Fredrik Von Schele5, Christer Nillson6, 1University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada, 2Chalmers University of Technology, Goteborg, Sweden, 3Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada, 4Canadian Space Agency, St. Hubert, Canada, 5OmniSys Instruments, 6 Stockholm, Sweden, Swedish National Space Board, Stockholm, Sweden

17:20 SCI-PS146.03 - BASCOE ensemble data assimilation stratospheric chemistry system Sergey Skachko1, Quentin Errera2, Richard Ménard2, Yves Christophe1, Simon Chabrillat1, 1Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, BIRA-IASB, Brussels, 2 Belgium, Environment Canada, Air Quality Research Division, Dorval, Canada

17:40 SCI-PS146.04 - Assimilation of water vapour measurements by a Chemistry Transport Model in the tropical UTLS Swagata Payra1,2,3, Philippe Ricaud1, Rachid Abida1, Jean-Luc Attié1,2, Laaziz El Amraoui1, Fabien Carminati1,2,4, Emmanuel Rivière5, Jean-Pierre Pommereau6, Sergey Khaykin6, 1CNRM GAME, Météo-France, France, 2Laboratoire d'Aerologie, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France, 3Birla Institute of Technology Mesra, Extension Centre Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, 4AOSC, University of Maryland, College Park, USA, 5GSMA, CNRS, Université Champagne Ardennes, Reims, France, 6LATMOS, CNRS, Université Versailles

St. Quentin, Guyancourt, France

SCI-PS147 Room 524 C 16:30 - 18:00 ODA - Observations and their assimilation in global to convective scale models

Chair: Thomas Blackmore

16:30 SCI-PS147.01 - Efficient radar forward operator for operational data assimilation within the COSMO-model 1 1 1 Yuefei Zeng , Ulrich Blahak , DWD, Offenbach, Germany

17:00 SCI-PS147.02 - Enhancing information transfer from observations to unobserved state variables for mesoscale radar data assimilation 1 1 1 Weiguang Chang , Isztar Zawadzki , McGill University, Montreal, Canada

62 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

17:20 SCI-PS147.03 - Assimilation of 3D radar reflectivity with an Ensemble Kalman Filter on a convection-permitting scale Theresa Bick1,3, Silke Troemel1,3, Kathrin Wapler2,3, Clemens Simmer1, 1Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, 2German Weather Service, Offenbach, Germany, 3Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research,

Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability Branch

17:40 SCI-PS147.04 - Testing convective scale data assimilation in severe storm cases using variational LAPS Hongli Jiang1, Yuanfu Xie2, Steve Albers1, Zoltan Toth2, 1NOAA/ESRL/CIRA, 2 Boulder, CO, USA, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO, USA

SCI-PS148 Room 518 B-C 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions

Chair: John Gyakum

16:30 SCI-PS148.01 - Eddy kinetic-energy redistribution within real and idealized extratropical storms Gwendal Riviere1, Philippe Arbogast2, Alain Joly2, 1Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France, 2CNRM-GAME, Météo-France & CNRS, Toulouse,

France

17:00 SCI-PS148.02 - Historical research perspective of the lifecycle of extratropical cyclones: observations and high-resolution numerical simulations 1 1 Melvyn Shapiro , NCAR/NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA

17:20 SCI-PS148.03 - Microphysical heating rates in a warm conveyor belt: Comparison of a COSMO and IFS simulation Hanna Joos1, Maxi Boettcher1, Richard Forbes2, Heini Wernli1, 1IAC ETH 2 Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, ECMWF, Reading, UK

17:40 SCI-PS148.04 - The role of post-cold frontal cumulus clouds in an extratropical cyclone case study Amanda Sheffield1, Susan van den Heever1, 1Colorado State University, Fort

Collins, USA

SCI-PS149 Room 520 A 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Tropical cyclones and tropical convection

Chair: Paul Roundy

16:30 SCI-PS149.01 - Global climatology of vertical wind shear near tropical disturbances Thomas Galarneau1, Christopher Davis1, 1National Center for Atmospheric

Research, Boulder, USA

17:00 SCI-PS149.02 - Tropical cyclones in vertical shear: Impact on the inflow layer of storms in idealized experiments Michael Riemer1, Michael T. Montgomery2, Melville E. Nicholls3, 1Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Mainz, Germany, 2Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, 3 USA, University of Colorado CIRES, Boulder, USA

63 Monday, August 18 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

17:20 SCI-PS149.03 - Upper-tropospheric precursors associated with subtropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic Basin Alicia Bentley1, Daniel Keyser1, Lance Bosart1, 1University at Albany, SUNY,

Albany, USA

17:40 SCI-PS149.04 - A large number of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts using a high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled model Kosuke ito1,2,3, Tohru Kuroda1,2, Akiyoshi Wada2, Kazuo Saito2,1, 1Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, 2Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, 3University of the Ryukyus,

Naha, Japan

SCI-PS150 Room 520 B 16:30 - 18:00 PPP - Polar Prediction Project

Chair: Dave Bromwich

16:30 SCI-PS150.01 - Global NWP model performance in polar areas Peter Bauer1, Linus Magnusson1, Jean-Noel Thepaut1, Thomas M Hamill2, 1 2 ECMWF, Reading, UK, NOAA ESRL, Boulder, USA

17:00 SCI-PS150.02 - Sea ice forecast verification in the Canadian Global Ice Ocean Prediction System Gregory Smith1, Francois Roy1, Mateusz Reszka1, Dorina Surcel-Colan1, Zhongjie He1, Daniel Deacu1, Frederic Dupont1, Jean-Francois Lemieux1, Gilles Garric2, Charles-Emmanuel Testut2, 1Environment Canada, Dorval, 2 Canada, Mercator-Ocean, Toulouse, France

17:20 SCI-PS150.03 - High-resolution atmospheric NWP modelling over Australian Antarctic bases Phillip Reid1, 1Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate

Research, Hobart, Australia

17:40 SCI-PS150.04 - Assimilating SMOS sea ice thickness into a coupled ice- ocean model using a local SEIK filter Qinghua Yang1,2, Svetlana N. Losa2, Martin Losch2, Xiangshan Tian-Kunze3, Lars Nerger2, Jiping Liu4, Zhanhai Zhang5, 1National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, China, 2Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany, 3University of Hamburg, Institute of Oceanography, Hamburg, Germany, 4State University of New York, University at Albany, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, 5 Albany, USA, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai, China

SCI-PS151 Room 520 C 16:30 - 18:00 S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project

Chair: Hai Lin

16:30 SCI-PS151.01 - Diagnosing subseasonal predictability of tropical anomalies 1 1 Matthew Newman , University of Colorado, Boulder, USA

17:00 SCI-PS151.02 - Highlights from Project Minerva: Towards seamless high- resolution climate prediction 1 1 Benjamin Cash , COLA-GMU, Fairfax, USA

64 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

17:20 SCI-PS151.03 - Feasibility study of sub-seasonal prediction with an atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled model Yuhei Takaya1,2, Tamaki Yasuda2, 1Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan, 2 Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

17:40 SCI-PS151.04 - Ensemble generation methods and skill of subseasonal predictions in the NCEP GEFS Malaquias Peña1, Yuejian Zhu1, Dingchen Hou1, Richard Wobus1, Hong Guan1, Qin Zhang2, 1Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College 2 Park, USA, Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, USA

SCI-PS152 Room 520 D 16:30 - 18:00 WHI - Development of applications in the forecasting process

Chair: Estelle de Coning

16:30 SCI-PS152.01 - What makes a good ensemble forecast? 1 1 Chris Ferro , University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

17:00 SCI-PS152.02 - An operational system for forecasting of turbulence in the vicinity of airports in Norway Knut Helge Midtbo1, Jakob Suild1, Karstein Soerli2, Joern Kristiansen1, 1The Norwegian Meteorlogical institute, Oslo, Norway, 2SINTEF ICT Applied

Mathematics, Trondheim, Norway

17:20 SCI-PS152.03 - Predictability of winter storm damages Tobias Pardowitz1,3, Martin Goeber2,3, Uwe Ulbrich1, 1Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institut fuer Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany, 2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, 3 Germany, Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Germany

17:40 SCI-PS152.04 - A forecasting system for snow and ice accretion on cable stay bridges and power lines Jeff R. Lundgren1, Ron J. Chapman2, Francoise Robe2, Darren Cherneski2, 1 2 RWDI, Vancouver, Canada, RWDI, Calgary, Canada

SCI-PS153 Room 520 E 16:30 - 18:00 NPE - Cross-cutting research on verification techniques

Chair: Ric Crocker

16:30 SCI-PS153.01 - Met Office post-processing of operational NWP forecasts Andrew Bennett1, Ian Pearman1, Stephen Moseley1, Caroline Jones1, James 1 1 1 1 Canvin , Simon Jackson , Bruce Wright , Met Office, Exeter, UK

17:00 SCI-PS153.02 - Observation-based ensemble spread-error relationship Munehiko Yamaguchi1, Simon Lang2, Martin Leutbecher2, Mark Rodwell2, Gabor Radnoti2, Niels Bormann2, 1Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan, 2European Centre for Medium-Range

Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

65 Monday, August 18 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

17:20 SCI-PS153.03 - Verifying modelled currents using a threshold exceedance approach 1 1 Ray Mahdon , Met Office, Exeter, UK

17:40 SCI-PS153.04 - Verification of the linguistic uncertainty of warning uncertainty Martin Goeber1,3, Tobias Pardowitz2,3, Thomas Kox2,3, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 2Institut fuer Meteorologie Freie Universitaet, Berlin, 3 Germany, Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Germany

UAS-PS315 Room 520 F 16:30 - 18:00 Understanding the perception and use of weather information in decision-making

Chair: Rebecca Morss

16:40 UAS-PS315.01 - Social and behavioral influences on decision-making by emergency managers Burrell Montz1, Kenneth Galluppi2, Jessica Losego3, James Correia4, Rachel Riley4, 1East Carolina University, Greenville, NC USA, 2Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ USA, 3University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC USA, 4University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK USA

17:00 UAS-PS315.02 - Psychological dimensions of risk perception and disaster preparedness for natural disasters in Canada An Gie Yong1, Louise Lemyre1, Celine Pinsent1, Tim Dugas1, Daniel Krewski2, 1GAP-Santé - University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada, 2R. Samuel McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment - University of Ottawa, Ottawa,

Canada

17:20 UAS-PS315.03 - Developing a valid scale of past experiences for tornado risks 1 1 Julie Demuth , NCAR and CSU, Boulder, USA

17:40 UAS-PS315.04 - Perception and use of weather information in decision- making by members of the Canadian public 1 1 1 Jean Andrey , Amber Silver , University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario

UAS-PS316 Room 519 A 16:30 - 18:00 Communication of uncertainty in forecasts, impacts and responses

Chair: Joanne Robbins

16:40 UAS-PS316.01 - Dimensions of risk and uncertainty perception in severe weather forecasts and warnings 1 1 Thomas Kox , Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany

17:00 UAS-PS316.02 - Why forecasts fail: ensemble prediction, early warnings and the challenges of emergency management 1 1 Sebastien Nobert , CNRS, Aquitaine, France

17:20 UAS-PS316.03 - Focusing on the hazards: Upcoming changes to NHC products and warnings 1 1 Richard Knabb , NOAA National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

66 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

17:40 UAS-PS316.04 - Forecasting surface water flooding from intense summer convective storms using a convection-permitting ensemble Brian Golding1, Nigel Roberts2, Susan Ballard2, Ken Mylne1, Richard 1 1 2 Swinbank , Met Office, Exeter, UK, Met Office, Reading, UK

UAS-PS319 Room 522 A-B 16:30 – 18:00 Military, defense, fire and international aid applications

Chair: Jamie Smith

16:40 UAS-PS319.01 - Ensemble SAR drift trajectories using Canadian, U.S. NCEP, and U.S. Navy FNMOC ensembles Syd Peel1, 1Environment Canada/Meteorological Research Division/RPN-E,

Toronto, CANADA

17:00 UAS-PS319.02 - Forecast-based disaster risk management: A financial mechanism for climate-informed humanitarian action Erin Coughlan1,2, Maarten van Aalst1, Bart van den Hurk2, Pablo Suarez1, 1Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands, 2 Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

17:20 UAS-PS319.03 - High resolution wildfires simulation, forecasting tools to estimate front evolution, fire induced weather and pollution Christine Lac1, Frédéric Bosseur2, Valéry Masson1, Jean-Baptiste Filipi2, 1Météo-France CNRM, Toulouse, France, 2CNRS Università di Corsica, Corti,

France

17:40 UAS-PS319.04 - Providing meteorological services to the Canadian Armed Forces through network-based services Martha Anderson1, Clarke Bedford1, Lt.-Col. Joseph Barry2, 1Directorate of Meteorology and Oceanography, Department of National Defence, Ottawa, Canada, 2Joint Meteorological Centre, Department of National Defence,

Gagetown, Canada

67 Monday, August 18 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-SPL03 Room 520 A 18:00 - 19:30 US Post-THORPEX Legacy Research Program

Chair: Sharan Majumdar

As the international THORPEX program draws to a close at the end of 2014, three international legacy projects have been established: Polar Prediction Project (PPP), Subseasonal-to-Seasonal prediction (S2S), and High-Impact Weather (HIWeather). There will be several presentations on each of these legacy projects during the WWOSC. In the United States, a first planning meeting was held in Silver Spring, Maryland on June 5-6 2014 to introduce the legacy projects, and for participants to identify critical gaps, common scientific challenges and priorities in the context of these projects. The next stage in the US is to develop a coordinated community project plan that is linked with the three international projects. The purpose of this Town Hall is to engage the US community in a new program, to seek feedback on the path forward, and to welcome contributions from the community to the drafting of the project plan.

Room 519 B 18:00 - 19:00 Early Career Scientists’ Meeting

Representatives from Early Career Scientists’ Associations will provide insight into their activities and experiences. In addition, they will provide information about opportunities such networks provide for early career scientists. We will have the chance to discuss whether there should be such a similar initiative for Early Career Scientists in the meteorology and users community. Some invited senior scientists will tell the inside story of their career, share their own experience and provide hand out advice for career development.

68 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

07:30 – 18:00 Registration Open Viger Hall

WW-JPL04 08:30 - 10:00 Joint Plenary Session Room 517 C-D Chairs: Jan Eichner and Aida Diongue-Niang

08:30 WW-JPL04.01 – The complementary roles of insurance and weather information in managing risk

Rowan Douglas , Willis Research Network, London, UK

09:15 WW-JPL04.02 - Directions in mesoscale and convective scale prediction Michael Reeder - Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

10:00 - 17:00 Exhibit Hall Open Room 220 D-E

10:00 - 10:30 Morning Break in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

SCI-PS154 Room 520 F 10:30 - 12:00 ISS - Land-Atmosphere interactions and water cycle

Chair: Ayrton Zadra

10:30 SCI-PS154.01 - Representing inland water bodies and coastal areas in global numerical weather prediction: sensitivity and impact Gianpaolo Balsamo1, Anton Beljaars1, Souhail Boussetta1, Emanuel Dutra1, 1 ECMWF, Reading, UK

11:00 SCI-PS154.02 - High-resolution surface analysis with offline surface scheme Leo Separovic1, Syed Husain1, David Fernig1, Wei Yu1, 1Environment Canada,

Meteorological Research Division, Montreal, Canada

11:20 SCI-PS154.03 - Ensemble data assimilation to characterize surface-layer errors in numerical weather prediction models Joshua Hacker1, Wayne Angevine2, 1NCAR Research Applications Lab, Boulder, 2 USA, CIRES-CU-NOAA, Boulder, CO

11:40 SCI-PS154.04 - A parameterization for land surface physical characteristics of burning areas for weather and climate models 1 1 1 Yihua Wu , Mike Ek , NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States

SCI-PS155 Room 519 A 10:30 - 12:00 ISS - Cryosphere-Ocean-Atmosphere, Coupling & Interaction

Chair: Steven Krueger

10:30 SCI-PS155.01 - The role of waves in air-sea interaction 1 1 Øyvind Saetra , The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

11:00 SCI-PS155.02 - Stochastic parametrization of wave breaking in wave-current interactions Jorge Ramirez1, Juan Restrepo2, 1Universidad de Colombia, Medellin, Colombia, 2 University of Arizona, Tuscon, AZ, USA

69 Tuesday, August 19 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

11:20 SCI-PS155.03 - Western Mediterranean Sea air-sea exchanges from the AROME-WMED model during the HyMeX campaign Romain Rainaud1, Cindy Lebeaupin-Brossier1, Véronique Ducrocq1, Hervé 1 1 Giordani , Météo-France CNRM/GAME, Toulouse, France

11:40 SCI-PS155.04 - Regional coupled atmosphere ocean modelling in the North Sea region Lydia Gates1, Katharina Buelow2, Annette Ganske2, Hartmut Heinrich2, Birgit Klein2, Holger Klein2, Jens Moeller2, Gudrun Rosenhagen1, Nils Schade2, Birger Tinz1, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany, 2Federal Maritime and

Hydrographic Agency, Hamburg, Germany

SCI-PS156 Room 519 B 10:30 - 12:00 S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project

Chair: Randall Dole

10:30 SCI-PS156.01 - Subseasonal to seasonal prediction: CPC operational outlooks and other applications 1 1 Jon Gottschalck , NOAA / Climate Prediction Center, College Park, USA

11:00 SCI-PS156.02 - Toward seamless prediction of severe weather activity Michael Tippett1, Adam Sobel0, Suzana Camargo2, John Allen3, 1Dept. Applied Physics and Applied Math, Columbia University, NY, USA, 2LDEO, Columbia 3 University, NY, USA, IRI, Columbia University, NY, USA

11:20 SCI-PS156.03 - Monthly probabilistic drought forecasting in Europe and Africa using the ECMWF Ensemble system Christophe Lavaysse1, Juergen Vogt1, Florian Pappenberger2, Paulo Barbosa1, 1European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy, 2ECMWF,

Reading, UK

11:40 SCI-PS156.04 - Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction for dynamic cropping calendars in Indonesia Andrew Robertson1, Dong Eun Lee2, Rizaldi Boer3, Akhmad Faqih3, Agus Buono3, 1IRI, Columbia University, Palisades,USA, 2LDEO, Columbia University, 3 Palisades, USA, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia

SCI-PS157 Room 520 A 10:30 - 12:00 NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Mid latitude regional aspects

Chair: Virginie Marécal

10:30 SCI-PS157.01 - Numerical Environmental Prediction, on the way towards more integrated forecasting of the Earth System 1 1 Stephane Belair , Environment Canada, Montreal, Canada

11:00 SCI-PS157.02 - UK Environmental Prediction – integration and evaluation at the convective scale Huw Lewis1, Gilbert Brunet1, Chris Harris1, Martin Best1, Andy Saulter1, Jason Holt2, Lucy Bricheno2, Nick Reynard3, Eleanor Blyth3, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK, 2NERC National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK, 3NERC Centre for Ecology

& Hydrology, Wallingford, UK

70 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

11:20 SCI-PS157.03 - The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): A maturation of frequently updating convection-allowing numerical weather prediction Curtis Alexander1, Stan Benjamin2, Steve Weygandt2, David Dowell2, Ming Hu1, Tanya Smirnova1, Joe Olson1, John Brown2, Eric James1, Haidao Lin3, 1Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder,USA, 2NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, USA, 3Cooperative Institute

for Research in the Atmosphere, Boulder, USA

11:40 SCI-PS157.04 - The development of a high resolution operational model at JMA Kengo Matsubayashi1, Kohei Kawano1, Junichi Ishida1, Tabito Hara1, Hisaki 1 1 Eito , Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

SCI-PS158 Room 524 A 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools

Chair: Fabio Diniz

10:30 SCI-PS158.01 - Atmospheric data assimilation and predictability: a three- dimensional modal view 1 1 Nedjeljka Zagar , University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia

11:00 SCI-PS158.02 - Use of ensembles to renew and improve adjoint-based adaptive observation strategies. Niels Oger1, Olivier Pannekoucke1, Alexis Doerenbecher1, Philippe Arbogast1, 1 CNRM-GAME UMR3589 Météo-France,Toulouse,France

11:20 SCI-PS158.03 - Ensemble estimation of background-error covariances using stochastic wind forcing: a coastal data assimilative twin experiment Vassilios Vervatis1,2, Pierre De Mey2, Charles-Emmanuel Testut1, Nadia Ayoub2, Giovanni Quattrocchi3, 1Mercator-Ocean, Toulouse, France, 2 3 LEGOS/CNRS, Toulouse, France, IAMC/CNR, Oristano, Italy

11:40 SCI-PS158.04 - The consequences of neglecting the correlation of errors in radar data assimilation 1 1 1 Dominik Jacques , Isztar Zawadzki , McGill University, Montreal, Canada

SCI-PS159 Room 520 C 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - Observations and assimilation of atmospheric constituents

Chair: Pablo Saide

10:30 SCI-PS159.01 - Assimilation of atmospheric constituents: highlights from MACC-II/Copernicus Vincent-Henri Peuch1, Richard Engelen1, Angela Benedetti1, Antje Inness1, Sebastien Massart1, Mark Parrington1, 1European Centre for Medium-Range

Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

11:00 SCI-PS159.02 - Data assimilation of trace gases in a chemical transport model: the impact on model forecasts. Emanuele Emili1, Olivier Pannekoucke1,2, Elodie Jaumouillé1, Andrea Piacentini1, Daniel Cariolle1, 1CERFACS, Toulouse, France, 2Météo France -

CNRM, Toulouse, France

71 Tuesday, August 19 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

11:20 SCI-PS159.03 - Assimilation of surface chemical species observations into the Canadian GEM-MACH model using optimal interpolation 1 1 1 Alain Robichaud , Richard Ménard , Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

11:40 SCI-PS159.04 - Global CO data assimilation for emissions and trends analysis Benjamin Gaubert1, Jérôme Barré1, Helen Worden1, David Edwards1, Louisa Emmons1, Simone Tilmes1, Arthur Mizzi1, Avelino Arellano2, Jeffrey Anderson3, Nancy Collins3, 1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Division (NCAR / ACD), Boulder, USA, 2University of Arizona, Tucson, USA, 3National Center for Atmospheric Research, Institute for

Mathematics Applied to Geosciences (NCAR / IMAGe), USA

SCI-PS160 Room 520 D 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - New technologies and observation instrumentation innovations: from urban to global scales

Chair: Dave Turner

10:30 SCI-PS160.01 - Filling gaps in the observation network for thermodynamic profiling by a ground-based microwave radiometer network Susanne Crewell1, Ulrich Loehnert1, Domenico Cimini2, 1University of Cologne, 2 Cologne, Germany, CNR-IMAA, Potenza, Italy

11:00 SCI-PS160.02 - Volume scanning microwave radiometry for convection forecasting Frederic Fabry1, Veronique Meunier1, David Themens1, 1McGill University,

Montreal, Canada

11:20 SCI-PS160.03 - Next generation airborne polarimetric doppler weather radar Wen-Chau Lee1, James Moore1, Jothiram Vivekanandan1, Eric Loew1, Jorge L. Salazar1, Pei-Sang Tsai1, Vanda Grubišić1, Maureen Donovan1, 1NCAR,

Boulder, CO, USA

11:40 SCI-PS160.04 - Strategic importance of FarIR Data for forecasting cold airmass formation in the Polar Vortex Jean-Pierre Blanchet1, Yacine Bouzid1, Pierre Gauthier1, Éric Girard1, 1 Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Canada

SCI-PS161 Room 518 B-C 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Tropical cyclones and tropical convection

Chair: Johnny Chan

10:30 SCI-PS161.01 - Radiative-convective instability and tropical weather and climate prediction 1 1 Kerry Emanuel , MIT, Cambridge, USA

11:00 SCI-PS161.02 - The role of tropical cyclones in cross-equatorial total energy transport Benjamin Schenkel1, Lance Bosart1, Daniel Keyser1, Robert Hart2, 1University 2 at Albany, SUNY, Albany, USA, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA

72 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

11:20 SCI-PS161.03 - The sensitivity of hurricane frequency to ITCZ changes and radiatively forced warming in aquaplanet simulations Timothy Merlis1, Ming Zhao2, Isaac Held3, 1McGill University, Montreal, Canada, 2UCAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA, 3 NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA

11:40 SCI-PS161.04 - Tropical cyclone intensity probability prediction in a changing climate: A multiple-linear regression modeling approach Chia-Ying Lee1, Michael K. Tippett2, Suzana J. Camargo3, Adam H. Sobel2,3,4, 1International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, USA, 2Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, USA, 3Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, USA, 4Department of Earth and Environmental

Sciences, Columbia University, New York, USA

SCI-PS162 Room 520 E 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Atmospheric and oceanic composition (processes, physics, modelling)

Chair: Bernhard Vogel

10:30 SCI-PS162.01 - Chemistry in the ECMWF integrated forecast system: Model performance and future perspectives Vincent Huijnen1, Johannes Flemming2, Antje Inness2, Martin Schultz3, 1KNMI, De Bilt, The Netherlands, 2ECMWF, Reading, UK, 3Forschungszentrum Jülich,

Jülich, Germany

11:00 SCI-PS162.02 - Simulation over Pakistan using the WRF-Chem model: A case study Muhammad Zeeshaan Shahid1, Liao Hong1, Jianping Li1, 1Institute of

Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

11:20 SCI-PS162.03 - Impact of emission schemes on online air quality modelling Carlos Ordóñez1, Mohit Dalvi1, Nicholas H. Savage1, Paul Agnew1, Lucy S. 1 1 1 Davis , Marie Tilbee , Met Office, Exeter, UK

11:40 SCI-PS162.04 - Long-term changes in extreme air pollution meteorology and implications for air quality Pei Hou1, Shiliang Wu1, Jessica McCarty1, 1Michigan Technologial University,

Houghton, USA

SCI-PS163 Room 524 C 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Continental convective systems

Chair: David Parsons

10:30 SCI-PS163.01 - Empirical studies of predictability at convective scales Isztar Zawadzki1, Madalina Surcel1, Aitor Atencia1, 1McGill University, Montreal,

Canada

11:00 SCI-PS163.02 - Synergetic use of multi-sensor data sets for improved nowcasting of severe convective weather events Kathrin Wapler1, Theresa Bick1, Hartwig Deneke2, Malte Diederich1, Akos Horvath1, Fabian Senf1, Clemens Simmer3, Jürgen Simon1, Silke Trömel1, 1Hans Ertel Research Centre for Weather Research, Germany, 2Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig, Germany, 3University of Bonn, Meteorological

Institute, Germany

73 Tuesday, August 19 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

11:20 SCI-PS163.03 - The decorrelation scale: methodology and application for precipitation forecasts Madalina Surcel1, Isztar Zawadzki1, M. K. Yau1, 1McGill University, Montreal,

Canada

11:40 SCI-PS163.04 - Continental Heavy Rainfall Predictability: the THORPEX West Africa case study Aida Diongue-Niang1, Jean-Philippe Lafore2, Florent Beucher2, Nicolas Chapelon3, Emmanuel Poan2, Romain Roehrig2, Tidiane Diedhiou1, 1ANACIM, Dakar, Senegal, 2CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France, 3 DP/CISMF, Météo-France, Toulouse, France

SCI-PS164 Room 520 B 10:30 - 12:00 PPP - Polar Prediction Project

Chair: Stephan Juricke

10:30 SCI-PS164.01 - The New Arctic: challenges, opportunities and concerns 1 1 Mark Serreze , NSIDC, Boulder, USA

11:00 SCI-PS164.02 - Issues in the dynamical seasonal prediction of the Arctic sea ice Wanqiu Wang1, Mingyue Chen1, Arun Kumar1, 1Climate Prediction

Center/NCEP, College Park, USA

11:20 SCI-PS164.03 - Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialisation improve the skill of coupled forecasts? Jonathan Day1, Ed Hawkins1, Steffen Tietsche1, 1University of Reading,

Reading, UK

11:40 SCI-PS164.04 - Advances in seasonal forecasting of the Arctic ocean, sea ice and biogeochemistry with CNRM-CM Matthieu Chevallier1, David Salas y Mélia1, Virginie Guémas1,2, Eric Brun1, Gilles Garric3, Marion Gehlen4, Roland Séférian1, Martin Vancoppenolle5, 1CNRM-GAME Météo-France CNRS, Toulouse, France, 2IC3, Barcelona, Spain, 3Mercator-Océan, Ramonville-Saint Agne, France, 4IPSL-LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, 5 France, IPSL-LOCEAN, Paris, France

SCI-PS165 Room 524 B 10:30 - 12:00 WHI - Development of applications in the forecasting process

Chair: Lans Rothfusz

10:30 SCI-PS165.01 - Severe weather prediction and analysis at ECMWF - recent developments and future challenges 1 1 Timothy Hewson , ECMWF, Reading, UK

11:00 SCI-PS165.02 - Ensemble storm surge forecasting in the UK during the exceptional 2013/14 winter storm season 1 1 Helen Titley , Met Office, Exeter, UK

74 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

11:20 SCI-PS165.03 - Towards improving the predictability of atmospheric rivers impacting coastal British Columbia Bradley Snyder1, Ruping Mo1, Alex Cannon2, Greg West3, Ronald Frenette4, 1Environment Canada, Vancouver, Canada, 2Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria,Canada, 3University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, 4 Environment Canada, Montreal, Canada

11:40 SCI-PS165.04 - Nowcasting (with MAPLE) and stationary precipitation patterns associated with large lakes and mountains 1 1 2 2 Lisa Alexander , Peter Taylor , Iain Russell , Majid Fekri , 1York University, Toronto, Canada, 2Pelmorex Canada Inc., Oakville, Canada

UAS-PA403 Room 517 C-D 10:30 - 12:00 Understanding, reducing and preventing losses from weather- related events: Insurance, finance and disaster risk management perspectives

Chair: Rowan Douglas

Against a backdrop of rising economic costs associated with hydrometeorological-related disaster events, members of the insurance and finance sector have been working closely with the risk management, atmospheric science and weather service communities to better understand, reduce and prevent losses. Panelists will discuss current approaches, lessons learned from recent experience, and areas where new or expanded research, development and services are required.

Panelists: Jan Eichner, Munich Reinsurance Company AG, Munich, Germany Rob Wesseling, The Sovereign General Insurance Company and The Co-operators, Guelph, Canada Judd Schechtman, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, USA

12:00 - 13:30 Lunch in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

UAS-PA404 Room 522 A-B 12:00 - 13:30 Special discussion panel on the WWRP HIWeather project

Chair: Brian Mills

The High Impact Weather (HIWeather) project is one of three activities being initiated and managed through the World Weather Research Program (WWRP) to extend and refocus the research and development carried out through the Thorpex Program. WWOSC provides an excellent opportunity to raise awareness and engage a wide range of expertise in the scoping, design and implementation of the project. Panelists will inform participants about the rationale and current status of the project, leading into an open forum and dialogue with the audience to discuss priority research and application areas

Panelists: Sarah Jones, DWD, Offenbach, Germany Brian Golding, Met Office, Exeter, UK

75 Tuesday, August 19 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS166 Room 524 A 13:30 - 15:00 NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Mid latitude regional aspects

Chair: Peter Steinle

13:30 SCI-PS166.01 - The convection-permitting ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS: From development to applications Susanne Theis1, Christoph Gebhardt1, Michael Buchhold1, 1DWD, Offenbach,

Germany

14:00 SCI-PS166.02 - Perfomance of the WWRP project FROST-2014 forecasting systems: Preliminary assessments Dmitry Kiktev1, Elena Astakhova1, Anatoly Muravyev1, Michael Tsyrulnikov1, 1 Hydrometcentre of Russia, Moscow, Russia

14:20 SCI-PS166.03 - The prediction of extratropical storm tracks in East Asia by the NCEP Ensemble Prediction Systems Wen Jiang1, HuiLing Yuan0, GuangPing Lou3, 1School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, 2Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, Nanjing, China, 3Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA,

College Park, USA

14:40 SCI-PS166.04 - Overview of the marine environmental observation, prediction and response network 1 1 Keith Thompson , Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada

SCI-PS167 Room 524 B 13:30 - 15:00 ODA - Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools

Chair: Andrew Lorenc

13:30 SCI-PS167.01 - Ensemble forecast sensitivity to observations: applications for proactive quality control Eugenia Kalnay1, Daisuke Hottac2,3, Yoichiro Ota4,3, Guo-Yuan Lien1, Takemasa Miyoshi1,5, 1AOSC, University of Maryland, College Park, USA, 2AMSC, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, USA, 3Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan, 4NCEP, NWS/NOAA, College Park, USA, 5RIKEN Advanced

Institute for Commutational Science, Kobe, Japan

14:00 SCI-PS167.02 - Estimating observation impact in a convective-scale localized ensemble transform Kalman filter 1 1 1 Matthias Sommer , Martin Weissmann , HErZ, München, Germany

14:20 SCI-PS167.03 - Evaluation of observation impact and observation error covariance retuning 1 1 1 1 Cristina Lupu , Carla Cardinali , Anthony P. McNally , ECMWF, Reading, UK

14:40 SCI-PS167.04 - Estimation of forecast sensitivity to observations within KIAPS-LETKF data assimilation system Ji-Sun Kang1, Byoung-Joo Jung1, Youngsoon Jo1, Yoichiro Ota2, 1Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, Korea, 2Japan Meteorological

Agency, Tokyo, Japan

76 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS168 Room 524 C 13:30 - 15:00 ODA - New technologies and observation instrumentation innovations: from urban to global scales.

Chair: Anne Hirsikko

13:30 SCI-PS168.01 - The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Global Observing System for total lightning Steven Goodman1, Richard Blakeslee2, William Koshak2, Dennis Buechler3, Lawrence Carey3, Douglas Mach4, Monte Bateman4, Harold Peterson4, Eugene McCaul4, Scott Rudlosky5, 1NOAA/NESDIS, Greenbelt, USA, 2NASA George C. Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, USA, 3The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, USA, 4Universities Space Research Association, 5 Huntsville, USA, NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, USA

14:00 SCI-PS168.02 - The front range observational network testbed J.C. Hubbert1, P. Kennedy2, W-C Lee1, S. Rutledge2, T. Weckwerth1, V. Chandrasekar2, E. Loew1, M. Dixon1, 1National Center For Atmospheric 2 Research, Boulder, USA, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, USA

14:20 SCI-PS168.03 - A new multi-station technique for lightning radiation source location Zhou Kanghui1, Dong Wansheng2, 1National Meteorological Center,Beijing, 2 China, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing, China

14:40 SCI-PS168.04 - The July 2013 Toronto flooding event: What can we learn from crowdsourced smartphone data? Kent Moore1, Jacob Sheehy2, Philippe Jones2, 1University of Toronto, Toronto, 2 Canada, Cumulonimbus, Toronto, Canada

SCI-PS169 Room 518 B-C 13:30 - 15:00 S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project

Chair: Duane Waliser

13:30 SCI-PS169.01 - The Forecast Skill Horizon Roberto Buizza1, Martin Leutbecher1, Franco Molteni1, Alan Thorpe1, Frederic 1 1 Vitart , European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

14:00 SCI-PS169.02 - Seamless precipitation prediction skill in a global model: Actual versus potential predictability Matthew Wheeler1, Hongyan Zhu1, Adam Sobel2, Debra Hudson1, 1Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia, 2Columbia

University, New York, USA

14:20 SCI-PS169.03 - Subseasonal variability of North American wintertime surface air temperature 1 1 Hai Lin , Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

14:40 SCI-PS169.04 - Improving understanding and predictions of extreme events: The Climate-Weather Connection Randall Dole1, Martin Hoerling1, Arun Kumar2, Jon Eischeid1,3, Judith Perlwitz1,3, Xiao-Wei Quan1,3, George Kiladis1, 1NOAA ESRL/PSD, Boulder, USA, 2NOAA NWS/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, USA, 3University of

Colorado CIRES, Boulder, USA

77 Tuesday, August 19 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS170 Room 519 B 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Continental convective systems

Chair: Luciano Vidal

13:30 SCI-PS170.01 - Interactions between continental convection and mesoscale circulations across model resolutions Cathy Hohenegger1, Linda Schlemmer1, Levi Silvers1, Bjorn Stevens1, 1Max

Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

14:00 SCI-PS170.02 - Predictability of convective precipitation: Convection- permitting ensemble simulations for West Africa Vera Maurer1, Norbert Kalthoff1, Leonhard Gantner1, 1Karlsruhe Institute of

Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

14:20 SCI-PS170.03 - A study on the heavy-rain-producing Mesoscale Convective System associated with diurnal variation and topography 1 1 Yuchun Zhao , Institue of Heavy Rain, Wuhan, China

14:40 SCI-PS170.04 - Northern Rocky Mountains as the origin for northwest flow severe weather outbreaks 1 1 S.-Y. Wang , USU, Logan, USA

SCI-PS171 Room 519 A 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions

Chair: Stan Benjamin

13:30 SCI-PS171.01 - Gravity waves in moist baroclinic jet-front systems Junhong Wei1, Fuqing Zhang1, 1Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania

State University, University Park, USA

14:00 SCI-PS171.02 - Does mesoscale instability control sting jet variability? Neil Hart1, Suzanne Gray1, Peter Clark1, 1Department of Meteorology, University

of Reading, Reading, UK

14:20 SCI-PS171.03 - Multi-scale Met Office unified model simulations of a mesoscale convective system in north-western Europe Samantha Clarke1, Suzanne Gray1, Nigel Roberts2, 1University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, UK, 2Met Office@Reading, University of

Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, UK

14:40 SCI-PS171.04 - Analyses and thinking on the extremes of torrential rain on July 21, 2012 in Beijing Yun Chen1, Jun Sun1, Jun Xu1, Shunan Yang1, Zhiping Zong1, Jie Sheng1, 1 1 Chong Fang , National Meteorological Center (NMC), CMA, Beijing, China

78 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS172 Room 520 B 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE

Chair: Kirstin Kober

13:30 SCI-PS172.01 - Strategic goals for NWP Centres: minimising RMS error or maximising forecast reliability? 1 1 Tim Palmer , University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

14:00 SCI-PS172.02 - Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrisations: Impact on the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system Antje Weisheimer1,2, Susanna Corti3,2, Tim Palmer1,2, Frederic Vitart2, 1University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, 2ECMWF, Reading, UK, 3ISAC CNR, Bologna,

Italy

14:20 SCI-PS172.03 - The MJO in a coarse-resolution GCM with a stochastic multicloud parameterization Qiang Deng1, Boualem Khouider2, Andrew Majda1,3, 1Center for Prototype Climate Modeling, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE, 2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada, 3Department of Mathematics and Center for Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences,

Courant Institute for Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, USA

14:40 SCI-PS172.04 - Stochastic Physics Developments for the Met Office ensemble prediction system Richard Swinbank1, Warren Tennant1, Anne McCabe1, Claudio Sanchez1, 1 Met Office, Exeter, UK

SCI-PS173 Room 520 A 13:30 - 15:00 ODA - Observations and assimilation of atmospheric constituents

Chair: Roger Saunders

13:30 SCI-PS173.01 - Observation leverage in the analysis and subsequent forecast impact 1 1 Carla Cardinali , ECMWF, Reading, UK

14:00 SCI-PS173.02 - Impact of geostationary satellite data on Superstorm Sandy forecast Tong Zhu1,2, Sid Boukabara2, 1CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, USA, 2 NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/JCSDA, College Park, USA

14:20 SCI-PS173.03 - Assimilation of dropsondes observations to improve forecasts of convection with WRF/DART Glen Romine1, Ryan Torn2, Chris Snyder1, Jeffery Anderson1, 1NCAR, Boulder, 2 USA, SUNY Albany, Albany, USA

14:40 SCI-PS173.04 - Assimilation of visible and near-infrared satellite observations in KENDA-COSMO Leonhard Scheck1, Tobias Necker1, Pascal Frerebeau1, Bernhard Mayer1, 1 1 Martin Weissmann , Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany

79 Tuesday, August 19 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS174 Room 520 C 13:30 - 15:00 WHI - Development of applications in the forecasting process

Chair: Ping-wah Li

13:30 SCI-PS174.01 - The future of forecaster decision making: Is it automation or human-computer interdependence? 1 1 Robert Hoffmann , Institute for Human and Machine Cognition, Pensecola, USA

14:00 SCI-PS174.02 - iCAST: A severe thunderstorm prediction and alerting prototype focused on optimization of the human-machine mix David Sills1, Norbert Driedger1, Brian Greaves1, Emma Hung1, Dominique Brunet1, Robert Paterson1, William Burrows1, Helen Yang2, Neil Taylor2, 1Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section, Environment Canada, 2 Canada, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Canada

14:20 SCI-PS174.03 - Integrated nowcasting system Claude Landry1, Marc Verville1, Linh Chi Nguyen1, Donald Talbot1, Louise Faust1, Jean-François Deschenes1, 1Canadian Meteorological Center, Dorval,

Canada

14:40 SCI-PS174.04 - Interactive 3D ensemble visualization for weather forecasting Marc Rautenhaus1, Christian M. Grams2, Andreas Schäfler3, Rüdiger Westermann1, 1Computer Graphics and Visualization Group, Technische Universität München, Garching, Germany, 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 3Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt,

Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

UAS-PS320 Room 520 D 13:30 - 15:00 Estimating the social and economic value of weather, water, and climate information

Chair: Adriaan Perrels

13:40 UAS-PS320.01 - The marginal value of weather warning systems 1 1 Benjamin Miller , University of California, San Diego, USA

14:00 UAS-PS320.02 - Benefits of improved weather information in Mozambique Jeffrey Lazo1, Louise Croneborg2, Marcus Wishart2, Eric Foster-Moore2, Chisomo Chilemba3, 1NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA, 2The World Bank, Washington 3 DC, USA, Top Marketing, Maputo, Mozambique

14:20 UAS-PS320.03 - The role of weather and climate service innovation in adaptation to climate change Atte Harjanne1, Adriaan Perrels1, Väinö Nurmi1, Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola1, 1 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

14:40 UAS-PS320.04 - Searching for the ideal wind power forecast Markus Dabernig1, Jakob W. Messner1, Georg J. Mayr1, 1University of

Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

80 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

UAS-PS321 Room 520 E 13:30 - 15:00 Special Session on the future of the weather enterprise

Chair: Jean Andrey

13:40 UAS-PS321.01 - The evolving role of the forecaster at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center Wallace Hogsett1, David Novak1, Keith Brill1, Dan Petersen1, 1NOAA Weather

Prediction Center, College Park, MD, USA

14:00 UAS-PS321.02 - Implementing the global framework for climate services in Canada: A national effort to assess capacity 1 1 Jamie Smith , Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ontario

14:20 UAS-PS321.03 - The UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP James Kinter1, Frederick Carr2, Gilbert Brunet3, 1George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA, 2University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA, 3U.K. Met Office,

Exeter, U.K.

14:40 UAS-PS321.04 - Be a part of building a weather-ready nation Christopher Strager1, Douglas Hilderbrand1, 1National Weather Service, Silver

Spring, MD, USA

15:00 - 16:30

Poster Session in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

15:00 - 16:30 Afternoon Break in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

SCI-PS175 Room 524 A 16:30 - 18:00 NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Mid latitude regional aspects

Chair: Jeanette Onvlee

16:30 SCI-PS175.01 - Regional air quality forecasting over Europe: the MACC-II ensemble system Virginie Marecal1, Matthieu Plu1, Philippe Moinat2, 1CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, 2 France, CERFACS, Toulouse, France

17:00 SCI-PS175.02 - Air quality forecasting in Canada: current status, performance and future developments Didier Davignon1, David Anselmo1, Paul-André Beaulieu1, Samuel Gilbert1, Sylvie Gravel2, Hugo Landry1, Sylvain Ménard1, Michael D. Moran3, Radenko Pavlovic1, 1Air Quality Modeling Applications Section, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2Air Quality Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, 3 Canada, Air Quality Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada

81 Tuesday, August 19 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

17:20 SCI-PS175.03 - NOAA's air quality predictions for the United States Ivanka Stajner1, Pius Lee2, Roland Draxler2, Jeff McQueen3, Jianping Huang3,4, Daniel Tong2,5, Li Pan2,5, Hyun Cheol Kim2,5, Perry Shafran3,4, Sikchya Upadhayay1,6, 1NOAA National Weather Service, Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, USA, 2NOAA Air Resource Laboratory, College Park, USA, 3NOAA National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, USA, 4I.M. Systems Group, Inc., Rockville, USA, 5Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, University of Maryland, College 6 Park, USA, Syneren Technologies Corporation, Arlington, USA

17:40 SCI-PS175.04 - The regional chemical transport model over northeast asia area operated by Japan Meteorological Agency Akane Kamada1,2, Masaaki Ikegami1,2, Hiroaki Naoe1, Mizuo Kajino2, Makoto Deushi2, Takashi Maki2, 1Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan, 2 Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

SCI-PS176 Room 524 B 16:30 - 18:00 ODA - Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools Chair: Abhishek Chatterjee

16:30 SCI-PS176.01 - Replacing localization with explicit correction of regression sampling errors in ensemble filters 1 1 Jeffrey Anderson , NCAR/IMAGe, Boulder, USA

17:00 SCI-PS176.02 - New analytical methods for adaptive localization for Ensemble Methods in data assimilation. Africa Perianez1, Hendrik Reich1, Roland Potthast1, 1Deutscher Wetterdienst,

Offenbach, Germany

17:20 SCI-PS176.03 - Linear filtering of sample covariances for ensemble data assimilation: theory and applications of optimality criteria Benjamin Menetrier1, Thibaut Montmerle1, Yann Michel1, Loïk Berre1, 1CNRM-

GAME/Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France

17:40 SCI-PS176.04 - Convergence of the Desroziers` scheme and its relation to the lagged-innovation diagnostics 1 1 Richard Ménard , Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

SCI-PS177 Room 524 C 16:30 - 18:00 WHI - Development of applications in the forecasting process

Chair: Dirk Heizenreder

16:30 SCI-PS177.01 - Designing semi-automatic systems for weather warning operations 1 1 Hans-Joachim Koppert , Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

17:00 SCI-PS177.02 - Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): A proposed next-generation warning concept for the U.S. Lans Rothfusz1, Travis Smith2, Gregory Stumpf3, Christopher Karstens2, 1NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, USA, 2Univ. of Oklahoma Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, USA, 3 NOAA/National Weather Service, Norman, USA

82 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

17:20 SCI-PS177.03 - Australian NexGen forecast and warning system Gary Weymouth1, Michael Foley1, Philip Riley1, Timothy Hume1, Tennessee Leeuwenburg1, John Bally1, Beth Ebert2, 1Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 2Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research,

Docklands, Australia

17:40 SCI-PS177.04 - Automated weather warning proposals based on post- processed numerical weather forecasts Guido Schroeder1, Bernhard Reichert1, Dirk Heizenreder1, 1Deutscher

Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

SCI-PS178 Room 520 A 16:30 - 18:00 ODA - New technologies and observation instrumentation innovations: from urban to global scales.

Chair: Chris Velden

16:30 SCI-PS178.01 - Chinese contributions to the space-based GOS: Fengyun meteorological satellites and their application to NWP 1 1 Peng Zhang , National Satellite Meteorological Center/CMA, Beijing, China

17:00 SCI-PS178.02 - Continuity and Innovation provided by EUMETSAT’s New Satellite Programmes Johannes Schmetz1, Rolf Stuhlmann1, Peter Schlüssel1, Dieter Klaes1, Rosemary Munro1, Marianne König1, Kenneth Holmlund1, Joerg Schulz1, Marc 1 1 1 Cohen , Sergio Rota , EUMETSAT, Darmstadt, Germany

17:20 SCI-PS178.03 - Arctic weather every 10 minutes: Exelis’ ABI on PCW 1 1 1 Paul Griffith , Susan Wirth , Exelis Geospatial Systems, Fort Wayne, IN, USA

17:40 SCI-PS178.04 - Research and development on satellite radiance assimilation at the Canadian Meteorological Center Louis Garand1, Sylvain Heilliette1, Stephen Macpherson1, Mark Buehner1, 1 1 Alain Beaulne , Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

SCI-PS179 Room 520 B 16:30 - 18:00 ODA - Observations and their assimilation in global to convective scale models

Chair: Carla Cardinali

16:30 SCI-PS179.01 - Towards the assimilation of near-surface winds: Development of a geo-statistical observation operator Joël Bédard1, Stéphane Laroche2, Pierre Gauthier1, 1Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, UQAM, Montreal, Canada, 2Data Assimilation and Satellite

Meteorology Section, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

17:00 SCI-PS179.02 - Assimilation of satellite cloud-information at the convective scale in an Ensemble Kalman Filter Annika Schomburg1, Christoph Schraff1, Stefan Declair1, Africa Perianez1, 1 1 Roland Potthast , Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

83 Tuesday, August 19 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

17:20 SCI-PS179.03 - Applying GSI 3DVAR-Ensemble Hybrid Data Assimilation System for rapid refresh with regional ensembles Ming Hu1,2, David Dowell2, Steve Weygandt2, Stan Benjamin2, Jeff Whitaker3, Curtis Alxander1,2, 1CIRES, University of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB, Boulder, USA, 2NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB, Boulder, USA, 3NOAA/ESRL/PSD,

Boulder, USA

17:40 SCI-PS179.04 - Using data assimilation to explore precipitation - cloud system - environment interactions 1 1 Derek Posselt , University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA

SCI-PS180 Room 520 C 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions

Chair: Thomas Spengler

16:30 SCI-PS180.01 - Wildfires over Southeastern Australia and their links to midlatitude Rossby Wave breaking and tropical convection Michael Reeder1, Thomas Spengler2, 1Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, 2 University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway

17:00 SCI-PS180.02 - Experiments with the FIM global model for blocking at seasonal to medium-range Stan Benjamin1, Shan Sun1, Rainer Bleck1, Georg Grell1, John Brown1, Randall Dole1, Judith Perlwitz1, 1NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory,

Boulder, USA

17:20 SCI-PS180.03 - Mediterranean moisture supply during an extreme precipitation event in the north-western Mediterranean Jana Campa1, Franziska Scholder-Aemisegger2, 1IMK KIT, Karlsruhe, 2 Germany, IAC ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

17:40 SCI-PS180.04 - Model studies of heavy precipitation events in the western Mediterranean during the HyMeX campaign (2012) 1 1 Luisa Röhner , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

SCI-PS181 Room 518 B-C 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE

Chair: Tom Hamill

16:30 SCI-PS181.01 - Physically-based stochastic parameterisation George C. Craig1, 1Meteorological Institute, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität,

Munich, Germany

17:00 SCI-PS181.02 - Impact on convective initiation of a stochastic boundary layer parameterisation Kirstin Kober1, George C. Craig1, 1Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich,

Germany

84 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

17:20 SCI-PS181.03 - An investigation of the evolution of forecast uncertainty in Global Model Forecasts Istvan Szunyogh1, Michael Herrera1, Gyorgyi Gyarmati1, Joseph Tribbia2, 1 2 Texas A&M University, College Station, USA, NCAR, Boulder, USA

17:40 SCI-PS181.04 - Initial ensemble perturbations provided by convective-scale ensemble data assimilation Florian Harnisch1, Christian Keil2, 1Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Data Assimilation Branch, LMU München, Germany, 2Meteorologisches Institut,

LMU München, Germany

SCI-PS182 Room 520 D 16:30 - 18:00 NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Tropical Aspects

Chair: Vijay Tallapragada

16:30 SCI-PS182.01 - New climate modes and their predictability 1 1 Toshio Yamagata , Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

17:00 SCI-PS182.02 - Understanding the role of the Maritime Continent in the global weather-climate continuum: YMC Kunio Yoneyama1, Chidong Zhang2, Charles Long3, Jean-Philippe Duvel4, Noer Hayati5, 1Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan, 2University of Miami, Miami, USA, 3Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, USA, 4Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris, France, 5Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency, Jakarta,

Indonesia

17:20 SCI-PS182.03 - Intraseasonal variations in west Africa and east Pacific easterly wave energy budgets Ghassan Alaka1, Adam Rydbeck1, Eric Maloney1, 1Colorado State University,

Fort Collins, USA

17:40 SCI-PS182.04 - Numerical examination of tropical disturbances using the high-resolution global nonhydrostatic model NICAM Masaki Satoh1, 1Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of

Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan

SCI-PS183 Room 520 E 16:30 - 18:00 S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project

Chair: Cristiana Stan

16:30 SCI-PS183.01 - Seasonal climate prediction in a climate services context Francisco Doblas-Reyes1,2, Muhammad Asif2, Lauriane Batté3, Melanie Davis2, Javier García-Serrano4, Nube González Reviriego2, Virginie Guemas2,3, Fabian Lienert2, Luis Rodrigues2, Verónica Torralba2, 1Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain, 2Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain, 3Météo-France, Toulouse, France, 4 Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France

17:00 SCI-PS183.02 - Soil moisture forecasts potential to predict rain anomalies over land-atmosphere “hot spots” in South America Pablo Spennemann1, Celeste Saulo0, 1Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2Universidad de Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Buenos Aires,

Argentina

85 Tuesday, August 19 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

UAS-PA406 Room 517 C-D 17:20 SCI-PS183.03 - Improvement of climate simulations: an ENSO example 1 16:30 - 18:002 1 Special Panel on2 the future of the weather enterprise Jong-Seong Kug , Yoo-Geun Ham , POSTECH, Pohang, Korea, Chonnam University, Gwangju, South Korea Chair: Dave Parsons

17:40 SCI-PS183.04 - Toward probabilistic seasonal predictionThis special joint panel on Weather Services Infrastructure is the first in a Nir Krakauer1, Hannah Aizenman1, Michael Grossbergseries1, Irinaof three Gladkova designed1, 1City to advance dialogue on the collaboration of private,

College of New York, New York, USA public and academic elements of the weather enterprise—the first two explore important issues and problems while the final panel is oriented towards finding

solutions. Infrastructure can be defined as everything necessary to design, UAS-PA405 Room 519 A develop and deliver products and services. It includes weather and climate 16:30 - 18:00 Managing heat health hazards in a climate of change: Mitigating observations, models and numerical weather prediction, and applications to risks for extreme weather in preparation forspecific the Pan customer Am Gamesdecision making needs. It also includes the underlying information technologies (data processing, visualization, communications) as Chair: Linda Anderson-Berry well as the education, training, and management of people—weather service providers, R&D scientists, and especially clients and users. Panel discussion Weather, climate variability, and other environmentalwill factorsconsider are the important gaps and weaknesses in present infrastructure that limit determinants of health. Across Ontario extreme weatherachieving events the fullare potentialbecoming of weather services? What infrastructure more frequent and more intense. Extreme temperaturesimprovements and high are humidity needed to increase the value of weather services to poses a significant health risk to Canadians. Theresociety? is a demonstrated link between heat and excess mortality. Mortality is largely preventable, given appropriate notification and interventions. There isPanelists no consistent: national approach for issuing heat advisories and/or the responsesKristin Lyng requir, Theed Norwegianto reduce Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway heat related mortality and morbidity. In Ontario, a decentralizedBob Marshall ,system Earth Networks, exists Germantown, USA where public health authorities have chosen differentAnne approaches Miglarese ,to PlanetiQ triggering USA, Bethesda, USA their heat alerts and response plans. Greater coordinationJulia Slingo is ,required UK Met Office, Exeter, UK amongst federal, provincial and municipal decisionAjit-makers Tyagi ,in Indian the identification Meteorological Service, New Delhi, India of risks and vulnerabilities and the innovative responsesEric Webster to those, Exelis challenges. Geospatial Systems USA, McLean, USA The Meteorological Service of Canada, Health Canada, Ministry of Health Long-Term Care and Toronto Public Health have been working closely to

continuously improve evidenceUAS-PS323-based capacity building and decision-making Room 520 F 16:30 - 18:00 at the provincial and local levels in order to reduceInformation morbidity andsystems mortality and technologies to improve

related to heat in Ontario. This initiative is focusedcommunication on developing anand efficient, facilitate and support decision making

coordinated, evidence-based system comprised ofChair robust,: Claude standardized Masse

criteria for calling heat alerts, and language easily understood by the public as well as the flexibility to address 16:40 local vulnerabilitiesUAS- PS323.01and needs. - HowThis does introducing nowcasting tools in weather warnings innovative system will be piloted at the Pan Amhelp Games civil protectionin 2015 and agents? it will provide a suite of inter-jurisdictional heat health managementThorsten Ulbrich tools1 to, Martin Goeber2, 1Freie Universität Berlin, Hans Ertel Cetre for 2 anticipate and adapt to the ongoing challenges of Weatherclimate change Research and (HErZ), Berlin, Germany, Deutscher Wertterdienst (DWD)

extreme weather events. 17:00 UAS-PS323.02 - Improving Canadian climate and water data dissemination 1 1 Panelists: Miguel Tremblay , Environment Canada, Montréal, Canada

Vidya Anderson, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, Toronto, Canada 17:20 UAS-PS323.03 - Vanishing Points(TM) in South Louisiana: future Carol Mee, Toronto Public Health, Toronto, Canadaimplications of a community-based mobile application on climate adaptation 1,2 1 Jay Storfer, Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada Sandra Maina , Pallab Mozumder , 1Florida International University, Miami, 2 USA, SOARS/UCAR, Boulder, CO, USA

17:40 UAS-PS323.04 - How to communicate weather forecasts on web services: Yr, a Norwegian example Jørn Kristiansen2, Ingrid Støver Jensen1, Morten Køltzow2, Bjørn Kristian 2 2 2 1 2 Larsen , Jan Ivar Pladsen , John Smits , NRK, Oslo, Norway, The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

18:00 - 19:30 Jazz Soirée Room 710 A

86 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

17:20 SCI-PS183.03 - Improvement of climate simulations: an ENSO example UAS-PA406 Room 517 C-D 1 2 1 2 Jong-Seong Kug , Yoo-Geun Ham , POSTECH, Pohang, Korea, Chonnam 16:30 - 18:00 Special Panel on the future of the weather enterprise University, Gwangju, South Korea Dave Parsons Chair: 17:40 SCI-PS183.04 - Toward probabilistic seasonal prediction Nir Krakauer1, Hannah Aizenman1, Michael Grossberg1, Irina Gladkova1, 1City Sponsored by This special joint panel on Weather Services Infrastructure is the first in a

College of New York, New York, USA series of three designed to advance dialogue on the collaboration of private, public and academic elements of the weather enterprise—the first two explore important issues and problems while the final panel is oriented towards finding

UAS-PA405 Room 519 A solutions. Infrastructure can be defined as everything necessary to design, 16:30 - 18:00 Managing heat health hazards in a climate of change: Mitigating develop and deliver products and services. It includes weather and climate risks for extreme weather in preparation for the Pan Am Games observations, models and numerical weather prediction, and applications to specific customer decision making needs. It also includes the underlying Chair: Linda Anderson-Berry information technologies (data processing, visualization, communications) as well as the education, training, and management of people—weather service Weather, climate variability, and other environmental factors are important providers, R&D scientists, and especially clients and users. Panel discussion determinants of health. Across Ontario extreme weather events are becoming will consider the gaps and weaknesses in present infrastructure that limit more frequent and more intense. Extreme temperatures and high humidity achieving the full potential of weather services? What infrastructure poses a significant health risk to Canadians. There is a demonstrated link improvements are needed to increase the value of weather services to between heat and excess mortality. Mortality is largely preventable, given society? appropriate notification and interventions. There is no consistent national approach for issuing heat advisories and/or the responses required to reduce Panelists: heat related mortality and morbidity. In Ontario, a decentralized system exists Kristin Lyng, The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway where public health authorities have chosen different approaches to triggering Bob Marshall, Earth Networks, Germantown, USA their heat alerts and response plans. Greater coordination is required Anne Miglarese, PlanetiQ USA, Bethesda, USA amongst federal, provincial and municipal decision-makers in the identification Julia Slingo, UK Met Office, Exeter, UK of risks and vulnerabilities and the innovative responses to those challenges. Ajit Tyagi, Indian Meteorological Service, New Delhi, India The Meteorological Service of Canada, Health Canada, Ministry of Health Eric Webster, Exelis Geospatial Systems USA, McLean, USA Long-Term Care and Toronto Public Health have been working closely to continuously improve evidence-based capacity building and decision-making UAS-PS323 Room 520 F at the provincial and local levels in order to reduce morbidity and mortality 16:30 - 18:00 Information systems and technologies to improve related to heat in Ontario. This initiative is focused on developing an efficient, coordinated, evidence-based system comprised of robust, standardized communication and facilitate and support decision making criteria for calling heat alerts, and language easily understood by the public as Chair: Claude Masse well as the flexibility to address local vulnerabilities and needs. This innovative system will be piloted at the Pan Am Games in 2015 and it will 16:40 UAS-PS323.01 - How does introducing nowcasting tools in weather warnings provide a suite of inter-jurisdictional heat health management tools to help civil protection agents? Thorsten Ulbrich1, Martin Goeber2, 1Freie Universität Berlin, Hans Ertel Cetre for anticipate and adapt to the ongoing challenges of climate change and 2 extreme weather events. Weather Research (HErZ), Berlin, Germany, Deutscher Wertterdienst (DWD)

17:00 UAS-PS323.02 - Improving Canadian climate and water data dissemination Panelists: 1 1 Vidya Anderson, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, Toronto, Miguel Tremblay , Environment Canada, Montréal, Canada

Canada Carol Mee, Toronto Public Health, Toronto, Canada 17:20 UAS-PS323.03 - Vanishing Points(TM) in South Louisiana: future Jay Storfer, Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada implications of a community-based mobile application on climate adaptation Sandra Maina1,2, Pallab Mozumder1, 1Florida International University, Miami, 2 USA, SOARS/UCAR, Boulder, CO, USA

17:40 UAS-PS323.04 - How to communicate weather forecasts on web services:

Yr, a Norwegian example Jørn Kristiansen2, Ingrid Støver Jensen1, Morten Køltzow2, Bjørn Kristian Larsen2, Jan Ivar Pladsen2, John Smits2, 1NRK, Oslo, Norway, 2The Norwegian

Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

18:00 - 19:30 Jazz Soirée Room 710 A

87 Wednesday, August 20 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

07:30 – 18:00 Registration Open Viger Hall

WW-JPL05

08:30 - 10:00 Joint Plenary Session Room 517 C-D Chairs: Joanne Robbins and Mitchell Montcrieff

08:30 WW-JPL05.01 - Science-practice interface: interrogating climate vulnerability, disaster reduction and urban resilience Emma E. Porio1, Ateneo de Manila University, Manila, Philippines

09:15 WW-JPL05.02 - Toward seamless climate-weather and environmental prediction 1 1 Julia Slingo , Met Office, Exeter, UK

10:00 - 16:30 Exhibit Hall Open Room 220 D-E

10:00 - 10:30 Morning Break in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

SCI-PS201 Room 520 C 10:30 - 12:00 ISS - Land-Atmosphere interactions and water cycle Chair: Linda Schlemmer

10:30 SCI-PS201.01 - Results from the Diurnal land/atmosphere Coupling Experiment (DICE) Martin Best1, Adrian Lock1, Ayrton Zadra2, 1UK Met Office, Exeter, UK, 2 Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

11:00 SCI-PS201.02 - Towards seamless mesoscale prediction of the land system for Europe Volker Wulfmeyer1, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi1, Thomas Schwitalla1, Hans-Stefan Bauer1, Josipa Milovac1, 1Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of

Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany

11:20 SCI-PS201.03 - Impacts of soil moisture-climate feedbacks in the tropics in the GLACE-CMIP5 experiments Wilhelm May1, Arndt Meier2, Markku Rummukainen2, 1Danish Meteorological 2 Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

11:40 SCI-PS201.04 - Terrestrial carbon fluxes and pools simulated with diurnal variability in both photosynthesis and respiration Bakr Badawy1, Vivek Arora2, Joe Melton2, Ray Nassar1, 1Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada, 2Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Victoria, Canada

88 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS202 Room 519 A 10:30 - 12:00 NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Tropical Aspects

Chair: Ghislain Faure

10:30 SCI-PS202.01 - The relative contribution of atmospheric and oceanic uncertainty in TC intensity forecasts 1 1 Ryan Torn , University at Albany, Albany, USA

11:00 SCI-PS202.02 - Adjoint sensitivity to control discretization errors: Goal- oriented adaptivity for idealized tropical cyclone scenarios Martin Baumann1, Vincent Heuveline1, Leonhard Scheck2, Sarah Jones3, 1Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany, 2Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität 3 München, München, Germany, DWD, Offenbach, Germany

11:20 SCI-PS202.03 - Evaluating the predictability of tropical cyclogenesis via wave-relative analyses William Komaromi1, Sharanya Majumdar1, 1University of Miami - RSMAS,

Miami, USA

11:40 SCI-PS202.04 - Multi-annual forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclones in a climate service context Louis-Philippe Caron1, Francisco Doblas-Reyes1, Mathieu Boudreault2, 1Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain, 2Université du Québec à

Montréal, Montreal, Canada

SCI-PS203 Room 519 B 10:30 - 12:00 NPE - Urban scale environmental prediction systems

Chair: Walt Dabberdt

10:30 SCI-PS203.01 - Integrated services addressing urban weather, climate and related environmental hazards Sue Grimmond1, Liisa Jalkanen2, Deon Terblanche2, Tang Xu2, 1Universtity of 2 Reading, Reading, UK, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland

11:00 SCI-PS203.02 - Megacities and large urban complexes: Next phase of the GURME project Veronique Bouchet1, Liisa Jalkanen2, Greg Carmichael3, 1Environment Canada, 2 3 Montreal, Canada, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, University of Iowa, USA

11:20 SCI-PS203.03 - Advanced quantitative precipitation information systems for urban regions Robert Cifelli1, V. Chandrasekar2, Lynn Johnson2, David Reynolds3, Allen White1, 1NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, USA, 2Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, USA, 3Cooperative Institute

for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, USA

11:40 SCI-PS203.04 - Dispersion modeling of particulate matter concentration reductions due to alternative aviation fuels James Keehn1, Donald Hagen1, 1Missouri University of Science and Technology,

Rolla, United States of America

89 Wednesday, August 20 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS204 Room 520 A 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - Data assimilation methodology and diagnostic tools

Chair: Craig Bishop

10:30 SCI-PS204.01 - A unifying framework for hybrid data-assimilation schemes 1 1 Peter Jan van Leeuwen , University of Reading, Reading, UK

11:00 SCI-PS204.02 - Estimating the full posterior probability density function with particle filters Melanie Ades1, Peter Jan van Leeuwen1, Andrew Stuart2, Kody Law3, 1University of Reading, Reading, UK, 2University of Warwick, Warwick, UK, 3King

Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia

11:20 SCI-PS204.03 - Toward new applications of the adjoint sensitivity tools in variational data assimilation Dacian Daescu1, Rolf Langland2, Ricardo Todling3, 1Portland State University, Portland, USA, 2Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, USA, 3NASA/GSFC

Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, USA

11:40 SCI-PS204.04 - An unbiased estimation of analysis and short-range forecast error variances Zoltan Toth1, Malaquias Pena2, 1Global Systems Division, NOAA/OAR/ESRL, Boulder, USA, 2IMSG at Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA,

College Park, USA

SCI-PS205 Room 524 A 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - Observations and assimilation of atmospheric constituents

Chair: Mariusz Pagowski

10:30 SCI-PS205.01 - Incorporating volcanic eruptions into near real-time aerosol forecasts Eric Hughes1, Nickolay Krotkov2, Arlindo Da Silva2, Kai Yang1, Peter Colarco2, 1University of Maryland - Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 2 College Park, USA, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA

11:00 SCI-PS205.02 - The GEOS-5 aerosol forecasting and data assimilation system Arlindo da Silva1, Peter Colarco1, Anton Darmenov1, Virginie Buchard1,2, Oreste Reale1,2, 1NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA, 2 GESTAR/Universities Space Research Association, Greenbelt, USA

11:20 SCI-PS205.03 - Aerosol optical properties assimilation from low-earth orbiting and geostationary satellites: Impacts on regional forecasts Pablo Saide1, Gregory Carmichael1, Chul Song2, Jhoon Kim3, Arlindo da Silva4, Johnathan Hair5, 1The University of Iowa, Center for Global & Regional Environmental Research, Iowa City, USA, 2Gwangju Inst. Sci. & Tech, Gwangju, Korea, 3Yonsei University, Global Environment Laboratory, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Seoul, Korea, 4NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, 5 Greenbelt, USA, NASA Langley Research Center, Langley, Hampton, USA

90 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

11:40 SCI-PS205.04 - Enhancing the Barcelona Supercomputing Center chemical transport model with aerosol data assimilation Enza Di Tomaso1, Nick Schutgens2, Oriol Jorba1, George S. Markomanolis1, 1Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain, 2 Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Univerisity of Oxford, UK

SCI-PS206 Room 524 C 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions

Chair: Helen Dacre

10:30 SCI-PS206.01 - The Central European floods in June 2013: the role of “preconditioning” and warm conveyor belts Christian M. Grams1, Hanin Binder1, Stephan Pfahl1, Nicolas Piaget1, Heini 1 1 Wernli , Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

11:00 SCI-PS206.02 - Investigating the dynamic atmospheric response to future sea ice loss in the western Arctic Melissa Gervais1, L. Bruno Tremblay1, John R. Gyakum1, Eyad Atallah1, 1 McGill University, Montreal, Canada

11:20 SCI-PS206.03 - OKJ circulation pattern and 721 heavy rainfall Yafei Wang1, Jianzhao Qin1, 1Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,

Beijing, China

11:40 SCI-PS206.04 - A new method for Tropopause Folding Detection and its application in middle-latitude disastrous weather Yixuan Shou1,2, Feng Lu1, Shaowen Shou2, Danyu Qin1, 1Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites, China Meteorological Administration (LRCVES/CMA)National Satellite Meteorological Center, China, 2Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education and Jiangsu Province, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,

Nanjing

SCI-PS207 Room 520 D 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE

Chair: Tetsuo Nakazawa

10:30 SCI-PS207.01 - Defining the initial conditions for medium-range ensemble forecasts with an ensemble of data assimilations 1 1 1 1 Simon Lang , Martin Leutbecher , Massimo Bonavita , ECMWF, Reading, UK

11:00 SCI-PS207.02 - Issues in the initial conditions error sampling within PEARP 1 1 1 Pierrick Cébron , Carole Labadie , Météo France, Toulouse, France

11:20 SCI-PS207.03 - A climatology of ECMWF ensemble hurricane track forecast variability 1 1 1 Travis Elless , Ryan Torn , Univerisity at Albany, Albany, USA

91 Wednesday, August 20 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

11:40 SCI-PS207.04 - ENSO prediction using Multi-ocean Analysis Ensembles (MAE) with NCEP CFSv2: Deterministic skill and reliability Jieshun Zhu1, Bohua Huang2, Lawrence Marx1, James L. Kinter III2, Magdalena A. Balmaseda3, Zeng-Zhen Hu4, Rong-Hua Zhang5, Peitao Peng4, 1COLA, Fairfax, USA, 2GMU, Fairfax, USA, 3ECMWF, Reading, UK, 4 5 CPC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, USA, ESSIC/UMD, College Park, USA

SCI-PS208 Room 520 E 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Sub-grid parameterizations for the atmosphere and ocean

Chair: Martin Miller

10:30 SCI-PS208.01 - Sub-grid parameterization in global atmospheric models: Progress and prospects 1 1 Anton Beljaars , ECMWF, Reading, UK

11:00 SCI-PS208.02 - Comparison of global NWP model hindcasts of a cold air outbreak to large-eddy simulations Lorenzo Tomassini1, Bjorn Stevens1, Cathy Hohenegger1, Axel Seifert2, 1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, 2German Weather Service,

Offenbach, Germany

11:20 SCI-PS208.03 - Sub-grid parameterization based on probability density functions in GFDL atmospheric general circulation model: global tests Huan Guo1, Jean-Christophe Golaz2, Leo Donner2, Paul Ginoux2, Richard Hemler3, 1UCAR Visiting Scientist Programs, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA, 2NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA, 3High Performance Technologies Group, DRC/GFDL, Princeton,

USA

11:40 SCI-PS208.04 - Successes and challenges of a seamless development of physical parameterizations Francois Bouyssel1, Eric Bazile1, Isabelle Beau1, Yves Bouteloup1, Jean- Francois Gueremy1, Jean-Marcel Piriou1, David Pollack1, Romain Roehrig1, 1 Météo-France/CNRS CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France

SCI-PS209 Room 520 F 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Tropical cyclones and tropical convection

Chair: Julia Keller

10:30 SCI-PS209.01 - Air-sea interactions in tropical cyclones 1 1 Lynn Shay , RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, USA

11:00 SCI-PS209.02 - ‘Category-6’ Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and ongoing subsurface warming over the western-north pacific main development region 1 1 1 I-I Lin , Iam-Fei Pun , National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

11:20 SCI-PS209.03 - The effect of land-sea contrast on tropical cyclone track and structure 1 1 Johnny Chan , School of Energy an Environment, City University of Hong Kong

92 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

11:40 SCI-PS209.04 - Mixture -based partitioning of operational ensemble forecasts for hurricane Sandy (2013) Jenni Evans1, Alex M. Kowaleski1, 1Pennsylvania State University, University

Park, USA

SCI-PS210 Room 520 B 10:30 - 12:00 S2S - Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project

Chair: Paul Kushner

10:30 SCI-PS210.01 - The Impact of the MJO on global ocean surface wave heights Duane Waliser1, Benjamin Wu2, Bin Guan3, Yuk Yung2, Jose-Henrique Alves4, Hendrik Tolman4, Arun Chawla4, 1Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, USA, 2Caltech, Pasadena, USA, 3UCLA, Los Angeles, USA, 4NCEP/NOAA, College

Park, USA

11:00 SCI-PS210.02 - How air-sea interaction improves the MJO in three GCMs Charlotte DeMott1, Cristiana Stan2, David Randall1, Mark Branson1, 1Colorado 2 State University, Fort Collins, USA, George Mason University, Fairfax, USA

11:20 SCI-PS210.03 - Vertical structure and diabatic processes of the Madden- Julian Oscillation in climate models Xianan Jiang1,2, Duane Waliser2, Prince Xavier3, Jon Petch3, Nicholas Klingaman4, Steve Woolnough4, Steve Woolnough4, 1Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Sci. & Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, USA, 2Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA, 3UK Meteorological Office, Exeter, UK, 4National Center for Atmospheric Sciences -

Climate, Reading University, Reading, UK

11:40 SCI-PS210.04 - Multiscale interactions and their resolution dependencies within Madden-Julian Oscillations produced by NICAM. Tomoki Miyakawa1, Hiroaki Miura2, 1Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and 2 Technology, Yokosuka, Japan, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

SCI-PS211 Room 524 B 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Continental convective systems

Chair: John Allen

10:30 SCI-PS211.01 - Mesoscale modeling at high (but not turbulence-resolving) resolution 1 1 Richard Rotunno , National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA

11:00 SCI-PS211.02 - The effect of the physical parameterizations and the land surface on rainfall events in Poland 1 1 1 Richard Hodur , Bogumil Jakubiak , University of Warsaw, Medford, USA

11:20 SCI-PS211.03 - Assessment of hailstorms in WRF weather simulations over Switzerland in summer 2012. Andrey Martynov1, Luca Nisi1,2, Olivia Martius1, 1Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, 2Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss,

Locarno-Monti, Switzerland

93 Wednesday, August 20 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

11:40 SCI-PS211.04 - The role of moist convection in the West African Monsoon John Marsham1, Cathryn Birch2, Douglas Parker1, Peter Knippertz3, Nick Dixon1, Luis Garcia-Carreras4, Grenville Lister5, 1University of Leeds, Leeds, UK, 2Met Office/University of Leeds, Leeds, UK, 3Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany, 4University of Stockholm, Stockholm, 5 Sweden, University of Reading, NCAS, Reading, UK

SCI-PS212 Room 518 B-C 10:30 - 12:00 WHI - Improved understanding of and techniques for decision making

Chair: Pertti Nurmi

10:30 SCI-PS212.01 - Building a weather-ready nation: linking services to observations, forecasts, and dissemination 1 1 Louis Uccellini , NOAA, Silver Spring, USA

11:00 SCI-PS212.02 - Coastal storm surge flooding impact under different climate scenarios in Pearl River Delta 1 1 LI LI , University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

11:20 SCI-PS212.03 - Assessing risks to infrastructure projects in the middle east from drifting/blowing sand using WRF J. Wayne Boulton1, Stuart Carmichael1, Jeff Lundgren1, Duncan Phillips1, Ewan Crosbie2, Giles Wiggs3, Cheryl Mckenna Neuman4, 1RWDI, Guelph, Canada, 2University of Arizona, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Tucson, USA, 3University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford, 4 UK, Trent University, Department of Geography, Peterborough, Canada

11:40 SCI-PS212.04 - Downscaling meteorological quantities for waves and storm- surges hind-casts in IncREO project Emilie Bresson1, Philippe Arbogast1, Anna Kortcheva2, Denis Paradis3, Florence Rabier4, Lotfi Aouf3, Patrick Ohl3, Andrey Bogatechev2, Vasko Galabov2, 1Météo-France / CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France, 2National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia, Bulgaria, 3Météo-France, Toulouse, France, 4 ECMWF, Reading, UK

94 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

UAS-PA407 Room 517 C-D 10:30 - 12:00 Special Session / Panel on the future of the weather enterprise

Chair: Neil Gordon

Sponsored by This special joint panel on Weather Services is the second in a series of three designed to advance dialogue on the collaboration of private, public and academic elements of the weather enterprise—the first two explore important issues and problems while the final panel is oriented towards finding solutions. Weather Services can be defined as the research and development, production, delivery, and evaluation of weather, water and climate knowledge to support customer decision making. Customers are broadly defined to include agencies, organizations and enterprises from government, non- government, public, industry, and academia. Panel discussion will focus on today’s weather.

Panelists: Michael Eilts, Weather Decision Technologies, Norman, USA David Grimes, Meteorological Service of Canada and WMO, Ottawa, Canada David Kenny, The Weather Company, Hanover, USA Hans-Joachim Koppert, German Weather Service (DWD), Offenbach, Germany Barry Myers, Accuweather, State College, PA, USA Roland Stull, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

12:00 - 13:30 Lunch in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

SCI-PS213 Room 519 B 13:30 - 15:00 ISS - Land-Atmosphere interactions and water cycle

Chair: Gianpaolo Balsamo

13:30 SCI-PS213.01 - Impact of dynamic vegetation on CRCM5 simulated climate over North America 1 1 1 Camille Garnaud , Laxmi Sushama , Centre ESCER, UQÀM, Montréal, Canada

14:00 SCI-PS213.02 - CLASS application in western Africa 1 1 Diana Verseghy , Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada

14:20 SCI-PS213.03 - Forecast uncertainty under different land-atmosphere coupling regimes Hyo-Jong Song1, Craig R. Ferguson1, 1Atmospheric Sciences Research Center,

SUNY-Albany, Albany, USA

14:40 SCI-PS213.04 - Trends in summer rainfall over China associated with the Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing 1 1 1 1 Anmin Duan , Ziqian Wang , Meirong Wang , LASG/IAP/CAS, Beijing, China

95 Wednesday, August 20 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS214 Room 524 A SCI-PS216 Room 524 C 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Tropical cyclones and tropical convection 13:30 - 15:00 ODA - Observations and assimilation of atmospheric

Chair: Fuqing Zhang constituents

Chair: Richard Menard 13:30 SCI-PS214.01 - Variability of tropical cyclone activity 1 1 Suzana Camargo , Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 13:30 SCI-PS216.01 - Multivariate chemical data assimilation and chemistry- Palisades,USA dynamics interaction 1 1 1 1 Jerome Barre , Benjamin Gaubert , Helen Worden , David Edwards , Avelino 14:00 SCI-PS214.02 - Predictability of intraseasonal variability and tropical Arellano2, Simone Tilmes1, Nancy Collins3, Kevin Raeder3, Arthur Mizzi1, cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific 1NCAR, ACD, Boulder, USA, 2University of Arizona, Tucson, USA, 3NCAR, 1 1 2 2,1 Masuo Nakano , Tomoe Nasuno , Masahiro Sawada , Masaki Satoh , IMAGe, Boulder, USA 1Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, 2 Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Japan 14:00 SCI-PS216.02 - Do better aerosol forecasts improve weather forecasts? A regional modeling and assimilation study. 14:20 SCI-PS214.03 - Spiral rainbands in numerical simulations of tropical Stuart Mckeen1, Georg Grell1, Ming Hu1, Mariusz Pagowski1, 1NOAA/ESRL,

cyclones under vertical wind shear Boulder, USA 1 1 1 Yumin Moon , George Bryan , NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA

14:20 SCI-PS216.03 - Studying impacts of the Saharan Air Layer on hurricane

SCI-PS215 Room 524 B development using WRF-Chem/EnKF 1 1 1 13:30 - 15:00 NPE - Urban scale environmental prediction systems Yongsheng Chen , Jianyu Liang , York University, Toronto,Canada

Chair: James Keehn 14:40 SCI-PS216.04 - Experimenting with the LETKF in a dispersion model coupled

13:30 SCI-PS215.01 - Adapting cities to climate change: a systemic modelling with the Lorenz 96 model Felix Carrasco1,2, Juan Ruiz1,2, Celeste Saulo1,2, Axel Osses3,4, 1Centro de approach 2 Valery Masson1, Aude Lemonsu1, Marion Bonhomme2, Genevieve Bretagne3, Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, Buenos Aires, Argentina, Departamento 4 5 6 de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 3Center for Stephane Hallegatte , Thomas Houet , Marie-Pierre Moine , Gregoire 4 Pigeon1, Jean-Luc Salagnac7, Vincent Viguie8, 1METEO-FRANCE, Toulouse, Mathematical Modeling, Santiago, Chile, Department of Mathematical France, 2Laboratory of Research in Architecture, Toulouse, France, 3Urban Engineering, Santiago, Chile 4 Planning Agency of Toulouse, Toulouse, France, International Research Center

on Environment and Development, Vincennes, France & World Bank, Washington, SCI-PS217 Room 519 A 5 6 USA, Environmental Geography Laboratory, Toulouse, France, CERFACS, 13:30 - 15:00 7 8 P&P - Continental convective systems Toulouse, France, CSTB, Marne-La-Vallee, France, International Research Chair: Aida Diongue-Niang Center on Environment and Development, Vincennes, France

13:30 SCI-PS217.01 - Statistical analysis of UK convection and its representation in 14:00 SCI-PS215.02 - Operational implementation and performance evaluation of a high resolution NWP Models PM10 and PM2.5 model for Santiago de Chile 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 Humphrey Lean , Peter Clark , Carol Halliwell , Kirsty Hanley , Robin Hogan , Rodrigo Delgado , Pablo Hernandez , Marcelo Mena-Carrasco , Direccion 2 2 2 1 2 John Nicol , Robert Plant , Thorwald Stein , Met Office, Reading, UK, Meteorologica de Chile, Santiago, Chile, Center for Sustainability Research, 2 University of Reading, Reading, UK Universidad Andres Bello, Santiago, Chile

14:00 SCI-PS217.02 - Evaluation of diurnal scale precipitation and associated cloud 14:20 SCI-PS215.03 - The Tokyo metropolitan area convection study for extreme and dynamical processes in observations and models weather resilient cities (TOMACS) 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Malay Ganai , P. Mukhopadhyay , Phani Muralikrishna , M. Mahakur , Indian Ryohei Misumi , Yoshinori Shoji , Tsuyoshi Nakatani , Kazuo Saito , Hiromu 2 2 2 3 1 Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India Seko , Naoko Seino , Ahoro Adachi , Yasushi Fujiyoshi , National Research

Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan, 2 3 Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, Hokkaido University,

Sapporo, Japan

- 14:40 SCI-PS215.04 Coupling the Town Energy Balance (TEB) scheme to an

operational limited area NWP model Rafiq Hamdi1, Daan Degrauwe1, Piet Termonia1, 1Royal Meteorological Institute

of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium

96 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS216 Room 524 C 13:30 - 15:00 ODA - Observations and assimilation of atmospheric constituents

Chair: Richard Menard

13:30 SCI-PS216.01 - Multivariate chemical data assimilation and chemistry- dynamics interaction Jerome Barre1, Benjamin Gaubert1, Helen Worden1, David Edwards1, Avelino Arellano2, Simone Tilmes1, Nancy Collins3, Kevin Raeder3, Arthur Mizzi1, 1NCAR, ACD, Boulder, USA, 2University of Arizona, Tucson, USA, 3NCAR,

IMAGe, Boulder, USA

14:00 SCI-PS216.02 - Do better aerosol forecasts improve weather forecasts? A regional modeling and assimilation study. Stuart Mckeen1, Georg Grell1, Ming Hu1, Mariusz Pagowski1, 1NOAA/ESRL,

Boulder, USA

14:20 SCI-PS216.03 - Studying impacts of the Saharan Air Layer on hurricane development using WRF-Chem/EnKF 1 1 1 Yongsheng Chen , Jianyu Liang , York University, Toronto,Canada

14:40 SCI-PS216.04 - Experimenting with the LETKF in a dispersion model coupled with the Lorenz 96 model Felix Carrasco1,2, Juan Ruiz1,2, Celeste Saulo1,2, Axel Osses3,4, 1Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 3Center for Mathematical Modeling, Santiago, Chile, 4Department of Mathematical

Engineering, Santiago, Chile

SCI-PS217 Room 519 A 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Continental convective systems

Chair: Aida Diongue-Niang

13:30 SCI-PS217.01 - Statistical analysis of UK convection and its representation in high resolution NWP Models Humphrey Lean1, Peter Clark2, Carol Halliwell1, Kirsty Hanley1, Robin Hogan2, John Nicol2, Robert Plant2, Thorwald Stein2, 1Met Office, Reading, UK, 2 University of Reading, Reading, UK

14:00 SCI-PS217.02 - Evaluation of diurnal scale precipitation and associated cloud and dynamical processes in observations and models Malay Ganai1, P. Mukhopadhyay1, Phani Muralikrishna1, M. Mahakur1, 1Indian

Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

97 Wednesday, August 20 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

14:20 SCI-PS217.03 - RELAMPAGO and SAME-PACE: Extreme storms that impact SCI-PS219 Room 520 A society in Southeastern South America 1 2 3 4 5 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Numerical methods of the atmosphere & ocean Steve Nesbitt , Paola Salio , Daniel Cecil , Rene Garreaud , Robert Houze , 5 6 7 8 Kristen Rasmussen , Adam Varble , Luiz Machado , David Gochis , Steven (including composition & boundary layer at all latitudes) Goodman9, 1University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, USA, Chair: Jean Côté 2 3 CIMA/University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, USA, 4University of Chile, Santiago, Chile, 13:30 SCI-PS219.01 - Numerical techniques of cloud resolving model and Large 5University of Washington, Seattle, USA, 6University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA, Eddy Simulation on the future HPC system 7 8 1 1 National Institute for Space Research, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil, National Hirofumi Tomita , RIKEN, Japan Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA, 9NESDIS/National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration, Greenbelt, USA 14:00 SCI-PS219.02 - The challenge of running operational Canadian NWP models

on next generation supercomputers. 14:40 SCI-PS217.04 - Effects of high resolution land surface parameters on PBL Michel Desgagne1, Claude Girard1, Janusz Pudykiewicz1, Abdessamad and clouds in numerical modeling Qaddouri1, Michel Valin2, 1Environment Canada/MSC/RPN-A, Montreal, Canada, 1 1 1 2 Leonhard Gantner , Norbert Kalthoff , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, UQAM, Montreal, Canada Karlsruhe, Germany

14:20 SCI-PS219.03 - Scalability initiative at ECMWF 1 1 1 1 SCI-PS218 Room 520 E Peter Bauer , George Mozdzynski , Michael Hawkins , Deborah Salmond , 1 1 1 1 1 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather Stephan Siemen , Peter Towers , Yannick Tremolet , Nils Wedi , ECMWF, Reading, UK

systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions

Chair: Olivia Martius 14:40 SCI-PS219.04 - An efficient time integration scheme for high-order nonhydrostatic atmospheric models 13:30 SCI-PS218.01 - Seasonal cycle of Rossby Wave breaking events and their 1 2 1 1 Lei Bao , Ram Nair , Henry Tufo , University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, link to precipitation patterns 2 1 1 1 USA, NCAR, Boulder, USA Andrea Schneidereit , Dieter H. W. Peters , Leibniz-Institute of Atmospheric

Physics, Kühlungsborn, Germany SCI-PS220 Room 520 B

14:00 SCI-PS218.02 - The impact of tropical cyclones on midlatitude Rossby Wave 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and packets: a climatological perspective TIGGE 1 2 1 Julian F. Quinting , Sarah C. Jones , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Chair: Thomas Hopson 2 Karlsruhe, Germany, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

13:30 SCI-PS220.01 - Revisiting predictability of the strongest storms that hit 14:20 SCI-PS218.03 - Diabatic Rossby-Waves in the northern and southern France over the past 30 years. hemisphere Marie Boisserie1, Laurent Descamps1, Philippe Arbogast1, 1Météo-France, 1 1 1

Maxi Boettcher , Heini Wernli , ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Toulouse, France

14:40 SCI-PS218.04 - Large-scale surface wind extremes in the Mediterranean 14:00 SCI-PS220.02 - Main characteristics and performance of COSMO-LEPS 1 1 1 1 Shira Raveh-Rubin1, Heini Wernli1, 1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Andrea Montani , Tiziana Paccagnella , Chiara Marsigli , ARPA-SIMC,

Science, Department of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zurich, Switzerland Bologna, Italy

14:20 SCI-PS220.03 - Optimizing the COSMO-DE Ensemble towards renewable energies Jonas von Schumann1, Regina Kohlhepp1, Andrea Steiner1, Bodo Ritter1, 1 1 Carmen Köhler , Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

14:40 SCI-PS220.04 - Multi-model EPS–GLAMEPS: configuration and performance for polar lows and the Sochi Olympics Inger-Lise Frogner1, John Bjørnar Bremnes1, Alex Deckmyn2, Trond Iversen1, Thomas Nipen1, Kai Sattler3, Andrew T. Singleton1, Xiaohua Yang3, 1Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, 2Royal Meteorological 3 Institute, Ukkel, Belgium, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark

98 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS219 Room 520 A 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Numerical methods of the atmosphere & ocean (including composition & boundary layer at all latitudes)

Chair: Jean Côté

13:30 SCI-PS219.01 - Numerical techniques of cloud resolving model and Large Eddy Simulation on the future HPC system 1 1 Hirofumi Tomita , RIKEN, Japan

14:00 SCI-PS219.02 - The challenge of running operational Canadian NWP models on next generation supercomputers. Michel Desgagne1, Claude Girard1, Janusz Pudykiewicz1, Abdessamad Qaddouri1, Michel Valin2, 1Environment Canada/MSC/RPN-A, Montreal, Canada, 2 UQAM, Montreal, Canada

14:20 SCI-PS219.03 - Scalability initiative at ECMWF Peter Bauer1, George Mozdzynski1, Michael Hawkins1, Deborah Salmond1, Stephan Siemen1, Peter Towers1, Yannick Tremolet1, Nils Wedi1, 1ECMWF,

Reading, UK

14:40 SCI-PS219.04 - An efficient time integration scheme for high-order nonhydrostatic atmospheric models Lei Bao1, Ram Nair2, Henry Tufo1, 1University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, 2 USA, NCAR, Boulder, USA

SCI-PS220 Room 520 B 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE

Chair: Thomas Hopson

13:30 SCI-PS220.01 - Revisiting predictability of the strongest storms that hit France over the past 30 years. Marie Boisserie1, Laurent Descamps1, Philippe Arbogast1, 1Météo-France,

Toulouse, France

14:00 SCI-PS220.02 - Main characteristics and performance of COSMO-LEPS Andrea Montani1, Tiziana Paccagnella1, Chiara Marsigli1, 1ARPA-SIMC,

Bologna, Italy

99 Wednesday, August 20 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS221 Room 520 C 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Sub-grid parameterizations for the atmosphere and ocean

Chair: Anton Beljaars

13:30 SCI-PS221.01 - The effects of surface friction over land on the general circulation 1 1 1 Gunila Svensson , Jenny Linvall , Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

14:00 SCI-PS221.02 - Adaptation of a parametrisation to the gray zone of turbulence Rachel Honnert1, Valéry Masson1, Fleur Couvreux1, 1CNRM-GAME, Toulouse,

France

14:20 SCI-PS221.03 - Bridging the scales with ICON to quantify model uncertainty Martin Köhler1, Daniel Klocke1, Tobias Göcke1, 1German Meteorological

Service, Offenbach, Germany

14:40 SCI-PS221.04 - Resolution dependence of cumulus statistics in radiative- convective equilibrium Katrin Scheufele1, George C. Craig1, 1Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-

Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany

SCI-PS222 Room 520 D 13:30 - 15:00 P&P - Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)

Chair: Steven Woolnough

13:30 SCI-PS222.01 - The skeleton and muscle of tropical intraseasonal oscillations 1 1 Andrew Majda , New York University, New York, USA

14:00 SCI-PS222.02 - Identifying the skeleton of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in observational data Samuel Stechmann1, Andrew Majda2, 1University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2 Madison, USA, New York University, New York, USA

14:20 SCI-PS222.03 - Linkages between the Madden Julian Oscillation, process- level diagnostics and GCM parameterization behavior in YOTC simulations 1 1 1 1 Richard Neale , Julio Bacmeister , Cecile Hannay , NCAR, Boulder, USA

14:40 SCI-PS222.04 - Testing the Yang and Ingersoll dynamical paradigm of the MJO 1 2 1 2 Da Yang , Mike Pritchard , Caltech, Pasadena, US, UC Irvine, Irvine, US

SCI-PS223 Room 518 B-C 13:30 - 15:00 WHI - Improved understanding of and techniques for decision making Chair: Kevin Petty

13:30 SCI-PS223.01 - Improved understanding of and techniques for decision- making - making effective decisions from uncertain forecasts 1 1 Ken Mylne , Met Office, Exeter, UK

100 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

14:00 SCI-PS223.02 - Using Geographic Information Systems to bridge communication gaps among users of NWS weather forecast information 1 1 Jack Settelmaier , NOAA/National Weather Service, Fort Worth, USA

14:20 SCI-PS223.03 - Gale warning for Swiss lakes and regional aerodromes based on Ensemble Genetic Programming Lysiane Mayoraz1, Jacques Ambühl1, Roman Voisard2, Christophe Voisard1, Manuela Züger2, Hans Romang1, 1MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland, 2University

of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

14:40 SCI-PS223.04 - A Study on incidence of heavy rainfall events over India during summer monsoon season Kalyan Chakravarthy Yesoda1, D.R Sikka1, Tyagi Ajit2, Ray Kamaljit1, S.C. Bhan1, B.K. Bandyopadhyay1, 1India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, 2 India, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India

UAS-PA408 Room 517 C-D 13:30 - 15:00 Special Session / Panel on the future of the weather enterprise

Chair: Jack Hayes

Sponsored by This special joint panel on Enhancing Weather Community Collaboration is the final in a series of three designed to advance dialogue on the collaboration of private, public and academic elements of the weather enterprise—the first two explore important issues and problems while the final panel is oriented towards finding solutions. Panel discussion will consider ideas where improved collaboration is needed to improve infrastructure and services. What areas offer the most potential for collaboration producing measurable service improvement? What factors that prevent or inhibit collaboration provide realistic goals for future collaboration? What next steps would start the weather community down the path? How could collaboration accelerate needed infrastructure improvement in developing and least developed countries worldwide? How could collaboration accelerate exploitation of improved service capabilities by developing and least developed countries worldwide?

Panelists: Harinder Ahluwalia, Canadian Meteorological and Oceangraphic Society, Ottawa, Canada Tom Bogdan, University Corporation of Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA Brian Day, WMO Hydrometeorological Equipment and Industry Association, Geneva, Switzerland Bill Gail, American Meteorological Society, Boston, USA Jerry Lengoasa, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland Louis Uccellini, USA National Weather Service, Silver Spring, USA

101 Wednesday, August 20 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

UAS-PS329 Room 520 F 13:30 - 15:00 Case studies in communicating warnings and advice

Chair: Jane Rovins

13:40 UAS-PS329.01 - Developing effective warning systems for hazards: Lessons for weather from volcano warnings in New Zealand Sally Potter1, Gill Jolly2, Vincent Neall3, David Johnston1, 1GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, 2GNS Science, Wairakei, New Zealand, 3Massey University,

Palmerston North, New Zealand

14:00 UAS-PS329.02 - How "communication overload" and, in particular warning fatigue, can impact decision- making under uncertainty. Brenda Mackie1, 1Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre,

Melbourne, Australia

14:20 UAS-PS329.03 - An analytical framework and preliminary results of an evaluation of weather warning systems in Quebec-Canada Kaddour Mehiriz1, Pierre Gosselin2, 1Institut national de recherche scientifique, 2 Québec, Canada, Institut national de santé publique, Québec, Canada

14:40 UAS-PS329.04 - Prepare now to survive the next tornado Cheryl Nelson1, 1Mrs. Virginia International/Meteorologist, Smithfield, Virginia,

USA

UAS-PS330 Room 522 A-B 13:30 - 15:00 Hydrometeorological disaster and hazard event case studies

Chair: Paul Kovacs

13:40 UAS-PS330.01 - Cusco floods in 2010 Laura Paccini Peña1, Luis Orihuela Pinto1, 1Universidad Nacional Agraria La

Molina, Lima, Perú

14:00 UAS-PS330.02 - Hazard to loss: Inland flood modeling in the Delaware River Basin Jeffrey Czajkowski1, Luciana Cunha2, Erwann Michel-Kerjan1, James Smith2, 1Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, Philadelphia, USA, 2 Princeton University, Princeton, USA

14:20 UAS-PS330.03 - Flash flooding and the global environmental change perspective: Toward an integrated strategy for disaster reduction Isabelle Ruin1,2, Saif Shabou3,2, Galateia Terti2, Sandrine Anquetin1,2, Jean- Dominique Creutin1,2, Céline Lutoff3, 1CNRS, LTHE, Grenoble, France, 2Univ. Grenoble Alpes, LTHE, Grenoble, France, 3Univ. Grenoble Alpes, PACTE,

Grenoble, France

14:40 UAS-PS330.04 - Assessing inland hazards associated with hurricanes in the U.S. Atlantic Basin Dereka Carroll-Smith1, Robert J. Trapp1, Eric Dietz1, James Done2, 1Purdue University, West Lafayette, United States, 2National Center for Atmospheric

Research, Boulder, United States

15:00 - 16:30 Poster Session in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

102 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

15:00 - 16:30 Afternoon Break in Exhibit Hall Room 220 D-E

SCI-PS224 Room 524 C 16:30 - 18:00 NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Tropical Aspects

Chair: Masaki Satoh

16:30 SCI-PS224.01 - Challenges for numerical weather prediction in the tropics 1 1 Aida Diongue-Niang , ANACIM, Dakar, Senegal

17:00 SCI-PS224.02 - Forecasting storms over East Africa using a 4km model 1 1 1 Caroline Bain , Douglas Boyd , Met Office, Exeter, UK

17:20 SCI-PS224.03 - Defining and predicting the West African monsoon onset Rory Fitzpatrick1, Doug Parker1, John Marsham1, Peter Knippertz2, Caroline Bain3, 1University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, UK, 2Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Meteorology and Climate 3 Research, Karlsruhe, Germany, UK Met Office, Exeter, UK

17:40 SCI-PS224.04 - The challenge of modeling the meteorology of dust emission: Results from the desert storms project Peter Knippertz1, John Marsham2, Bernd Heinold3, Kerstin Schepanski3, Sophie Cowie2, Stephanie Fiedler2, Alex Roberts2, Carl Gilkeson2, Bradley Jemmet-Smith2, Florian Pantillon1, 1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2University of Leeds, Leeds, UK, 3Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric

Research, Leipzig, Germany

SCI-PS225 Room 520 A 16:30 - 18:00 NPE - Urban scale environmental prediction systems Chair: Greg Carmichael

16:30 SCI-PS225.01 - Urban-scale forecasting system for the 2015 PanAm Games in Toronto Sylvie Leroyer1, Stéphane Bélair1, 1RPN-E, Meteorological Research Division,

Dorval, Canada

17:00 SCI-PS225.02 - Modelling London with high resolution versions of the Unified Model 1 1 Humphrey Lean , Met Office, Reading, UK

17:20 SCI-PS225.03 - Development of an air quality prediction system for the 2015 PanAm Games in Toronto Craig Stroud1, Sylvie Gravel1, Paul Makar1, Junhua Zhang1, Alain Robichaud1, Richard Menard1, Balbir Pabla1, Wanmin Gong1, Mike Moran1, 1Environment

Canada, Air Quality Research, Toronto, Canada

17:40 SCI-PS225.04 - Multiple effects of urban area on reinforcement of precipitation Tadao Inoue1, 1Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology,

Yokohama, Japan

103 Wednesday, August 20 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS226 Room 518 B-C 16:30 - 18:00 ODA - Coupled data assimilation and reanalyses

Chair: Patrick Laloyaux

16:30 SCI-PS226.01 - Coupled data assimilation and reanalyses at NCEP Suranjana Saha1, Jack Woollen1, Daryl Kleist1, David Behringer1, Steve Penny2, Xingren Wu1, Michael Ek1, Shrinivas Moorthi1, Sarah Lu1, 1Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, USA, 2Department of

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, USA

17:00 SCI-PS226.02 - The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics 1 1 Kazutoshi Onogi , Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

17:20 SCI-PS226.03 - ERA-CLIM: Developing reanalyses of the coupled climate system 1 1 Dick Dee , ECMWF, Reading, UK

17:40 SCI-PS226.04 - Regional reanalysis at the Met Office 1 1 1 1 Dale Barker , Richard Renshaw , Peter Jermey , Met Office, Exeter, UK

SCI-PS227 Room 520 B 16:30 - 18:00 WHI - Improved understanding of and techniques for decision making Chair: Xu Tang

16:30 SCI-PS227.01 - User-oriented weather information for disaster risk reduction and associated science-based technology in Japan 1 1 Masashi Nagata , Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

17:00 SCI-PS227.02 - Impact and risk of coastal-related hazard on lives, livelihood, property and economy 1 1 Paul Davies , Met Office,Exeter, UK

17:20 SCI-PS227.03 - An event-based methodology for verifying rainstorm and thunderstorm warnings Wai-kin Wong1, Li Ping-wah1, Wang-Chun Woo1, 1Hong Kong Observatory,

Hong Kong, China

17:40 SCI-PS227.04 - Will climate change increase transatlantic aviation turbulence? Paul Williams1, Manoj Joshi2, 1University of Reading, Reading, UK, 2University of

East Anglia, Norwich, UK

SCI-PS228 Room 520 C 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Continental convective systems Chair: Richard Rotunno

16:30 SCI-PS228.01 - An ensemble study of HyMeX IOP6 and IOP7a Evelyne Richard1, Alan Hally2, Véronique Ducrocq2, 1University of Toulouse, 2 CNRS, Toulouse, France, Météo-France, Toulouse, France

104 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

17:00 SCI-PS228.02 - A systematic approach to identifying and characterizing atmospheric bores and other fine-line features during IHOP_2002 1 1 1 Kevin Haghi , David Parsons , University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA

17:20 SCI-PS228.03 - Amplification of high precipitation in the Western Mediterranean by Corsica island flow and convection Ulrich Corsmeier1, Norbert Kalthoff1, Andreas Wieser1, Bianca Adler1, 1 1 Christoph Kottmeier , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

17:40 SCI-PS228.04 - Initiation, maintenance, and properties of convection in an extreme rainfall event during SCMREX Yali Luo1, Hui Wang1, 1Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing,

China

SCI-PS229 Room 520 D 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions Chair: Gwendal Riviere

16:30 SCI-PS229.01 - How do atmospheric rivers form? Helen Dacre1, Oscar Martinez-Alvarado1, Peter Clark1, David Lavers2, 1 2 University of Reading, Berkshire, UK, University of Iowa, USA

17:00 SCI-PS229.02 - A climatology of extreme cyclone growth processes in the North Atlantic Basin John Gyakum1, Bryn Ronalds1, Shawn Milrad2, Eyad Atallah1, 1McGill University, Montreal, Canada, 2Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona

Beach, USA

17:20 SCI-PS229.03 - Sub-seasonal clustering of extreme precipitation events Yannick Barton1, Paraskevi Giannakaki1, Clément Chevalier1, Stephan Pfahl2, Harald von Waldow2, Olivia Martius1, 1OCCR, Institute of Geography, Mobiliar Lab, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate

Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

17:40 SCI-PS229.04 - Novel measure for Baroclinicity and its tendency: Theory, case study and climatology Thomas Spengler1, Lukas Papritz2, 1Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway, 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich,

Zurich, Switzerland

SCI-PS230 Room 520 E 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Numerical methods of the atmosphere & ocean (including composition & boundary layer at all latitudes) Chair: Pierre Benard

16:30 SCI-PS230.01 - Advancing the frontiers of tropical cyclone modeling with the Variable-Resolution General Circulation Model CAM-SE Christiane Jablonowski1, Colin M. Zarzycki1, Mark A. Taylor2, 1University of 2 Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, USA

105 Wednesday, August 20 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

17:00 SCI-PS230.02 - Global ocean-atmosphere modeling on unstructured meshes Rainer Bleck1,2, Shan Sun1, Stan Benjamin1, 1NOAA Earth System Research 2 Lab, Boulder, USA, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA

17:20 SCI-PS230.03 - Non-hydrostatic dynamical core for the Russian SL-AV model: Overview and first results Rostislav Fadeev1, Mikhail Tolstykh0, 1Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS, 2 Moscow, Russia, Hydrometcentre of Russia, Moscow, Russia

17:40 SCI-PS230.04 - Arctic tropopause in MPAS-A, WRF, and GFS 1 1 1 Nicholas Szapiro , Steven Cavallo , University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA

SCI-PS231 Room 520 F 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE Chair: George Craig

16:30 SCI-PS231.01 - Recovering the multivariate dependencies of statistically post-processed ensemble forecasts with ensemble copula coupling Thordis Thorarinsdottir1, Tilmann Gneiting2, Roman Schefzik3, 1Norwegian Computing Center, Oslo, Norway, 2Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, 3 Heidelberg, Germany, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany

17:00 SCI-PS231.02 - Statistical postprocessing for TIGGE Kira Feldmann1, Mikyoung Jun2, Tilmann Gneiting3, 1Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany, 2Texas A&M University, College Station, USA, 3Heidelberg

Institute for Theoretical Studies and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany

17:20 SCI-PS231.03 - Bayesian weighting for short-range lagged ensemble forecasting at convective scale Laure Raynaud1, Olivier Pannekoucke1, Philippe Arbogast1, François 1 1 Bouttier , Météo-France, Toulouse, France

17:40 SCI-PS231.04 - Are we still lacking spread in medium-range ensemble forecasts? Normand Gagnon1, Ronald Frenette1, Martin Charron2, Stéphane Beauregard1, Amin Erfani1, 1Environment Canada, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2Environment Canada, Meteorological Research

Directorate, Dorval, Canada

SCI-PS232 Room 519 A 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Sub-grid parameterizations for the atmosphere and ocean Chair: Christine Lac

16:30 SCI-PS232.01 - Ocean model parameterizations relevant to weather prediction 1 1 1 Bill Large , Gokhan Danabasoglu , NCAR, Boulder, USA

17:00 SCI-PS232.02 - Parameterizing Richardson number hysteresis in the boundary layer 1 1 1 Ron McTaggart-Cowan , Ayrton Zadra , Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

106 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

17:20 SCI-PS232.03 - An economical, scale-aware PDF-Based turbulence closure model Steven Krueger1, Peter Bogenschutz2, Andrew Lesage1, Adam Kochanski1, 1University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA, 2National Center for Atmospheric

Research, Boulder, USA

17:40 SCI-PS232.04 - Anticipating some future challenges for operational parameterizations in high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Radmila Brozkova1, Jan Masek1, Ivan Bastak-Duran1, Jean-Francois Geleyn2, 1Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague, Czech Republic, 2Meteo-France,

Toulouse, France

SCI-PS233 Room 519 B 16:30 - 18:00 P&P - Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Chair: Mitch Moncrieff

16:30 SCI-PS233.01 - Diabatic process in the Madden-Julian Oscillation Steve Woolnough1, Nicholas Klingaman1, Prince Xavier2, Xianan Jiang3, Jon Petch2, Duane Waliser4, Chris Holloway1, 1NCAS-Climate, Reading, UK, 2Met Office, Exeter, UK, 3Joint Institiure for Regional Earth System Science and 4 Engineering, Los Angles, USA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, USA

17:00 SCI-PS233.02 - Sensitivity of the superparameterized Madden-Julian Oscillation to extreme climate variation on a uniform temperature aquaplanet Da Yang1, Michael Pritchard1, 1California Institute of Technology, Pasadena,

USA

17:20 SCI-PS233.03 - Process-oriented MJO simulation diagnostic: moisture sensitivity of simulated convection Daehyun Kim1, Prince Xavier2, Eric Maloney3, Matthew Wheeler4, Duane Waliser5, Kenneth Sperber6, Harry Hendon4, Chidong Zhang7, Richard Neale8, Yen-Ting Hwang9, 1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, USA, 2Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, 3Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA, 4Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia, 5Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA, 6Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, PCMDI, Livermore, USA, 7Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, USA, 8National Center for Atmospheric 9 Research, Boulder, USA, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, USA

17:40 SCI-PS233.04 - Gross moist stability in weak temperature gradient simulations Sharon Sessions1, David Raymond1, Stipo Sentic1, Michael Herman1, 1New

Mexico Tech, Socorro, USA

SCI-PS234 Room 524 A 16:30 - 18:00 ISS - Cryosphere-Ocean-Atmosphere, Coupling & Interaction Chair: Martin Charron

16:30 SCI-PS234.01 - A review of the technologies and algorithms used to couple earth system model components Sophie Valcke1, 1Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en

Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), Toulouse, France

107 Wednesday, August 20 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

17:00 SCI-PS234.02 - Coupling sub-systems at NCEP Michael Ek1, 1Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park,

USA

17:30 SCI-PS234.03 - Integrated modeling of aerosol, cloud, precipitation and land processes at satellite-resolved scales Christa Peters-Lidard1, Toshi Matsui2, Joseph Santanello, Jr.1, Wei-Kuo Tao1, Mian Chin1, Jonathan Case3, Sujay Kumar4, Jiann "Roger" Shi5, Zhining Tao6, Benjamin Zaitchik7, 1Code 617, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA, 2ESSIC/UMD and Code 612, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA, 3ENSCO, Inc at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, USA, 4SAIC and Code 617, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA, 5Morgan State University and Code 612, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA, 6USRA and Code 614, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA, 7Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins

University, Baltimore, USA

UAS-PS331 Room 524 B 16:30 - 18:00 Health and biometeorological applications Chair: Jennifer Spinney

16:40 UAS-PS331.01 - Modelling support for Canadian air quality regulations and policy 1 1 Sophie Cousineau , Environnement Canada, Dorval, Canada

17:00 UAS-PS331.02 - Bioclimatic extreme and population health in the coastal cities of Benin (West Africa) Nouvêwa Patrice M. Boko1, Expédit Vissin1, Krysztof Blasejczyk2, Christophe Houssou1, 1Laboratoire Pierre PAGNEY, Climat, Eau, Ecosystèmes et Développement (LACEEDE), Université d’Abomey-Calavi (Bénin), 2Institute of

Geography and Spatial Organization PAN, Varsovie, (Pologne)

17:20 UAS-PS331.03 - Weather forecasts and winter recreation decisions 1 1 1 Michelle Rutty , Jean Andrey , University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada

UAS-PS332 Room 522 A-B 16:30 - 18:00 Weather knowledge in support of disaster preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation Chair: Amber Silver

16:40 UAS-PS331.01 - The SWFDP: Improving severe weather warnings in Southern Africa Eugene Poolman1, Ezekiel Sebego1, 1South African Weather Service, Pretoria,

South Africa

17:00 UAS-PS332.02 - The effect of climate change adaptation on rural community livelihoods Nelson Ssemambo1, Mathew Buyondo2, Richard Lule3, 1Regional Climate Change Support Initiative (RCCSI), Kyotera, Uganda, 2Foundation for Rural Community Empowerment (FORCE), Kalisizo, Uganda, 3Makerere University,

Kampala, Uganda

108 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

17:20 UAS-PS332.03 - Community participation in disaster risk reduction and management (DRM): Toward an integrated framework Jason MacLean1, 1Lakehead University, Faculty of Law, Thunder Bay, ON,

Canada

17:40 UAS-PS332.04 - Integrated research on disaster risk David Johnston1, Sally Potter2, Jane Rovins3, 1Massey University, Wellington, NZ, 2Joint Centere for Disaster Research, Lower Hutt, NZ, 3Disaster Reduction &

Resilience Solutions, Ltd. Wellington, NZ

16:30 – 18:30 Poster Removal Room 220 D-E

109 Thursday, August 21 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

08:00 – 14:00 Registration Open Viger Hall

WW-JPL06 08:30 - 10:00 WWOSC Joint Plenary Room 517 C-D

Chairs: Brian Mills and Florence Rabier

08:30 WW-JPL06.01 - Research Needs for Better Health Resilience to Weather Hazards 1 1 Michel Jancloes , Health and Climate Foundation, Divonne les Bains, France

09:15 WW-JPL06.02 - High Performance Computing (HPC) 1 1 Al Kellie , NCAR, Boulder, USA

10:00 - 10:30 Morning Break Foyer 517 C-D

SCI-PS237 Room 520 C 10:30 - 12:00 ISS - Cryosphere-Ocean-Atmosphere, Coupling & Interaction

Chair: Nicholas Klingaman

10:30 SCI-PS237.01 - Boundary layers and clouds in interaction with the surface in polar regions 1 1 Gunilla Svensson , Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

11:00 SCI-PS237.02 - GABLS4: An intercomparison case to study the stable boundary layer on the Antarctic plateau Eric Bazile1, Olivier Traullé1, Hélène Barral2, Vincent Guidard1, A.A.M. Holtslag3, Patrick Le Moigne1, Gunilla Svensson4, Timo Vihma5, 1Météo- France, CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France, 2LGGE UMR 5183, Grenoble, France, 3Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 4Stockholm University, 5 Stockholm, Sweden, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

11:20 SCI-PS237.03 - Improvements of moisture flux estimates using AIRS version 6 data in the Arctic Linette Boisvert1, Dong Wu2, Timo Vihma3, 1ESSIC UMD, College Park, USA, 2 3 NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, USA, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

11:40 SCI-PS237.04 - Stable boundary layer Obukhov length; atmospheric chemistry and wind energy applications Peter Taylor1, Daniel Laroche1, Robert McLaren1, Jim Salmon2, 1CRESS, York 2 University, Toronto, Canada, Zephyr North, Burlington, Canada

SCI-PS238 Room 519 A 10:30 - 12:00 NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Tropical Aspects

Chair: Yihong Duan

10:30 SCI-PS238.01 - NOAA's high-resolution operational HWRF modeling system: progress, advancements and challenges in hurricane forecasting Vijay Tallapragada1, 1NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, USA

110 Thursday, August 21 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

11:00 SCI-PS238.02 - The global to local scale hurricane weather research and forecasting (HWRF) system Sundarar Gopalakrishnan1, Dr. Xuejin Zhang2, Dr. Thiago Quirino1, Dr. Joseph Prusa3, Dr. Vijay Tallapragada4, Dr. Frank Marks1, Dr. Robert Atlas5, 1NOAA/Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, USA, 2University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and Atlantic Oceanographic Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, USA, 3Teraflux Corporation, Miami, USA, 4NOAA/Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, USA, 5NOAA/Atlantic

Oceanographic Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, Florida

11:20 SCI-PS238.03 - Advancing microphysics parameterizations in the hurricane weather research and forecasting (HWRF) system Christina Holt1, Ligia Bernardet1, Mrinal Biswas1, Vijay Tallapragada2, 1NOAA, Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, USA, 2Environmental Modeling Center,

College Park, USA

11:40 SCI-PS238.04 - Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) simulated with a Global Mesoscale Model Bo-Wen Shen1, Mark DeMaria2, Jui-Lin F. Li3, Samson Cheung4, Yuling Wu5, 1UMCP/ESSIC, College Park, USA, 2NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, USA, 3JPL/CalTech, Pasadena, USA, 4NASA/ARC, Moffett Field, USA, 5NSSTC,

College Park, USA

SCI-PS239 Room 519 B 10:30 - 12:00 NPE - Urban scale environmental prediction systems

Chair: Humphrey Lean

10:30 SCI-PS239.01 - Sensitivity analysis of aerosol feedbacks on chemistry and weather at urban and regional scales Greg Carmichael1, Pablo Saide1, Scott Spak1, Yafeng Cheng1, Pallavi Marrapu1, Marcelo Mena-Carrasco2, Gufran Beig3, Man Yu1, Gao Meng1, 1Center for Global & Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa, Iowa City, USA, 2Center for Sustainability Research, Universidad Andres Bello, 3 Santiago, Chile, India Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

11:00 SCI-PS239.02 - Ensemble based probabilistic forecasting of meteorology and air quality in Oslo, Norway 1 1 Sam-Erik Walker , Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Kjeller, Norway

11:20 SCI-PS239.03 - Climate Analysis Seoul: An application for urban planning and management to mitigate extreme-climate Chaeyeon Yi1, Kyurang Kim2, Seung-Man An3, Young-Jean Choi1, Dieter 4 4 Scherer , Ute Fehrenbach , 1Weather Information Service Engine (WISE) Project, Seoul, Republic of Korea 2 Department of Applied Meteorology Research, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Korea 3Social Eco-Tech Institute, Konkuk University, Seoul, Korea 4 Department of Ecology, Technical University of Berlin, Germany

11:40 SCI-PS239.04 - Experiments with a scale - and aerosol-aware convective parameterization on regional and global scales Georg Grell1, Shan Sun2, Evelyn Grell2, Saulo Freitas3, Stan Benjamin1, Martin Stuefer4, Joseph Olson2, 1NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, USA, 2CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, USA, 3INPE-CPTEC, Brazil, 4University of Alaska, Fairbanks, USA

111 Thursday, August 21 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS240 Room 518 B-C 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - Coupled data assimilation and reanalyses

Chair: Suranjana Saha

10:30 SCI-PS240.01 - The Coupled ECMWF ReAnalysis system Patrick Laloyaux1, Eric de Boisseson1, Magdalena Balmaseda1, Kristian 1 1 Mogensen , ECMWF, Reading, UK

11:00 SCI-PS240.02 - Towards coupled atmosphere-ocean assimilation via skin SST analysis in NASA GEOS DAS Santha Akella1, Ricardo Todling2, Max Suarez2, 1NASA/ GMAO, SSAI, Lanham, 2 USA, NASA/ GMAO, Greenbelt, USA

11:20 SCI-PS240.03 - Exploring coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation strategies with an EnKF, low-order model and CMIP5 data Robert Tardif1, Gregory Hakim1, Chris Snyder2, 1University of Washington, 2 Seattle, USA, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA

11:40 SCI-PS240.04 - A coupled ensemble data assimilation system for seasonal prediction Oscar Alves1, Yonghong Yin1, Li Shi1, Robin Wedd1, Debbie Hudson1, Patricia 1 1 1 Okely , Harry Hendon , Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Austrlaia

SCI-PS241 Room 524 A 10:30 - 12:00 ODA - Ocean and cryosphere observations and their assimilation

Chair: Anna Shlyaeva

10:30 SCI-PS241.01 - A coupled Arctic Ocean/sea ice reanalysis Detlef Stammer1, Armin Köhl1, Nikolay Koldunov1, 1CEN, Universität Hamburg,

Hamburg, Germany

11:00 SCI-PS241.02 - Sensitivity of Arctic sea-ice to surface atmospheric forcings in a coupled ocean-sea ice state estimate An Nguyen1, Ayan Chaudhuri2, Ian Fenty3, Patrick Heimbach1, 1Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA, 2Atmospheric and Environmental 3 Research, Inc., Lexington, USA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, USA

11:20 SCI-PS241.03 - Recent advances in the Mercator-Ocean reanalysis system: Application to an Arctic configuration Charles-Emmanuel Testut1, Gilles Garric1, Gregory Smith2, Lu Youyu3, 1Mercator-Océan, Toulouse, France, 2Meteorological Research Division, EC, Dorval, Canada, 3Bedford institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans

Canada, Dartmouth, Canada

11:40 SCI-PS241.04 - The global ocean forecasting initiative GODAE OceanView Andreas Schiller1, Eric Dombrowsky2, Mike Bell3, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker3, 1CSIRO, Hobart, Australia, 2Mercator Ocean, Toulouse, France, 3UK Met Office,

Exeter, UK

112 Thursday, August 21 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS242 Room 520 A 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions

Chair: Tobias Selz

10:30 SCI-PS242.01 - High-latitude influences on mid-latitude weather Thomas Jung1, Marta Anna Kasper1, Tido Semmler1, Soumia Serrar1, 1AWI,

Bremerhaven, Germany

11:00 SCI-PS242.02 - Cold air outbreaks in the South Pacific: climatology, dynamics and impacts Lukas Papritz1, Stephan Pfahl1, Harald Sodemann1, Heini Wernli1, 1Institute for

Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

11:20 SCI-PS242.03 - Dynamics and predictability of atmospheric response to reduced Arctic sea ice through ensemble sensitivity analysis Hans Chen1, Fuqing Zhang1, 1The Pennsylvania State University, University

Park, USA

11:40 SCI-PS242.04 - WRF simulation of changes to characteristics of tropopause polar vortices due to sea ice loss 1 1 1 Dylan Lusk , Steven Cavallo , University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA

SCI-PS243 Room 520 D 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Numerical methods of the atmosphere & ocean (including composition & boundary layer at all latitudes)

Chair: Christiane Jablonowski

10:30 SCI-PS243.01 - Nonhydrostatic adaptive mesh dynamics for multiscale climate models William Collins1, Hans Johansen1, Peter McCorquodale1, Phil Colella1, Paul Ullrich2, 1Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, USA, 2University of

California, Davis, USA

11:00 SCI-PS243.02 - Does high order and dynamic adaptive mesh refinement improve the efficiency of atmospheric simulations? Andreas Mueller1, Michal Kopera1, Simone Marras1, Francis X. Giraldo1, 1 Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, USA

11:20 SCI-PS243.03 - Implementation of adaptive grid refinement in the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). Angel Domínguez Chovert1, Maibys Sierra Lorenzo2, Nivian Quintana Rodríguez2, 1Higher Institute of Technology and Applied Sciences, Havana, 2 Cuba, Institute of Meteorology, Havana, Cuba

11:40 SCI-PS243.04 - An accurate and efficient numerical framework for adaptive numerical weather prediction Giovanni Tumolo1, Luca Bonaventura2, 1The Abdus Salam International Centre 2 for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, MOX-Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy

113 Thursday, August 21 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS244 Room 520 E 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE

Chair: Marie Boisserie

10:30 SCI-PS244.01 - Multi-model ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones using TIGGE Munehiko Yamaguchi1, 1Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological

Agency, Tsukuba, Japan

11:00 SCI-PS244.02 - Probabilistic verification of global and mesoscale ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis Sharanya Majumdar1, Ryan Torn2, 1RSMAS / University of Miami, Miami, USA, 2 SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY, USA

11:20 SCI-PS244.03 - Characteristics of TIGGE in representing forecast variability associated with extratropical transition Julia H. Keller1,2, Sarah C. Jones1,2, Jenni L. Evans3, Patrick A. Harr4, 1Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2German Meteorological Service, 3Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA, 4Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey,

California, USA

11:40 SCI-PS244.04 - Ensemble sensitivity analysis using TIGGE 1 1 1 Karine Maynard , Philippe Arbogast , Météo-France, Toulouse, France

SCI-PS245 Room 520 F 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Sub-grid parameterizations for the atmosphere and ocean

Chair: Joao Teixeira

10:30 SCI-PS245.01 - Superparameterized Climate Forecast System (SP-CFS) for improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon Bidyut Bikash Goswami1, Ravuri Phani Murali Krishna1, Parthasarathy Mukhopadhyay1, Marat Khairoutdinov2, Bhupendra Nath Goswami1, 1Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, 2Stony Brook University, New York,

USA

11:00 SCI-PS245.02 - Sensitivity of hailstorm prediction to several microphysical parameters Christine Lac1, 1CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France, 2Meteo-France, Toulouse, 3 4 France, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France

11:20 SCI-PS245.03 - Water vapor isotopic diagnostics to evaluate the representation of moist processes during Madden-Julian oscillations Camille Risi1, Obbe Tuinenburg1, John Worden2, Jean-Lionel Lacour3, Naoyuki Kurita4, 1Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris, France, 2Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA, 3Spectroscopie de l’Atmosphère, Service de Chimie Quantique et Photophysique, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium, 4Graduate

School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Japan

114 Thursday, August 21 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

11:40 SCI-PS245.04 - Quadrature methods for sub-grid microphysics statistical moments Kenny Chowdhary1, Bert Debusschere1, Vince Larson2, Maher Salloum1, 1Sandia National Labs, Livermore, USA, 2University of Madison - Wisconsin,

Madison, USA

SCI-PS246 Room 520 B 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)

Chair: Daehyun Kim

10:30 SCI-PS246.01 - GCMs with implicit and explicit representation of cloud microphysics for simulation of extreme precipitation frequency 1 1 1 In-Sik Kang , Young-Min Yang , Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea

11:00 SCI-PS246.02 - Realistic initiation and dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a coarse resolution aquaplanet GCM Ajaya Mohan Ravindran1, Boualem Khouider2, Andrew Majda3, 1New York University, Abu Dhabi, UAE, 2University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada, 3New York

University, New York, USA

11:20 SCI-PS246.03 - Structure and dynamics of the MJO-related temperature, vertical velocity and divergence fields 1 1 1 Ángel F. Adames , John M. Wallace , University of Washington, Seattle, USA

11:40 SCI-PS246.04 - Vertical structure and diabatic processes of the MJO: 2-day hindcasts Prince Xavier1, Jon Petch1, Duane Waliser2, Xianan Jiang2, Steve Woolnough3, Nick Klingaman3, 1Met Office, UK, 2JPL, NASA, 3NCAS-Climate,

University of Reading, UK

SCI-PS247 Room 524 B 10:30 - 12:00 WHI - Improved understanding of the synergies and science- based needs of multi-hazard events

Chair: Paul Davies

10:30 SCI-PS247.01 - Translating weather forecasts into impact-relevant information: Practice of impact-based forecast in weather forecast operation Baode Chen1, Xu Tang2, 1Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA, Shanghai, China, 2 WMO, Geneva, Switzerland

11:00 SCI-PS247.02 - Localized urban heat island development and associations with air pollution and synoptic weather Jennifer Vanos1, Aaron Hardin1, Laurence Kalkstein2, 1Texas Tech University, 2 Lubbock, USA, University of Miami, Miami, USA

11:20 SCI-PS247.03 - The WMO severe weather forecasting demonstration project – bringing benefits of NWP to developing countries 1 1 Ken Mylne , Met Office, Exeter, UK

115 Thursday, August 21 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

11:40 SCI-PS247.04 - Integrating nowcasting with crisis management and risk prevention in a transnational framework Yong Wang1, Alexander Kann1, Franziska Strauss1, Ingo Meirod-Mautner1, 1 1 Benedikt Bica , ZAMG, Vienna, Austria

SCI-PS248 Room 524 C 10:30 - 12:00 P&P - Continental convective systems

Chair: Cathy Hohenegger

10:30 SCI-PS248.01 - Hail and the climate system: Large scale environment relationships for the Continental United States 1979-2012 John Allen1, Michael Tippett2, Adam Sobel2,3, 1IRI, Columbia University, Palisades, USA, 2Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics,

Columbia University, New York, USA

11:00 SCI-PS248.02 - Using regional climate models to simulate extreme rainfall events over South Africa Babatunde Abiodun1, Sabina Abbar Omar1, 1University of Cape Town, Cape

Town, South Africa

11:20 SCI-PS248.03 - A sounding climatology and forecasting methodology using self-organizing maps over Gauteng, South Africa Liesl Dyson1, 1Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology,

University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa

11:40 SCI-PS248.04 - Orographic influence on convective triggering Paola Salio1, Luciano Vidal2, 1CIMA-CONICET-UBA / DCAO UBA-FCEN / UMI3351-CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2CONICET, SMN,

Buenos Aires, Argentina

UAS-PA409 Room 517 C-D 10:30 - 12:00 The impact of weather on human health and the influence of weather information on health-related behaviour

Chair: Michel Jancloes

Panelists representing a variety of agencies will discuss the impact of weather on aspects of human health and safety, and the influence of weather information on health-related behaviours, decisions, and policies. The feedback will be used to guide the direction of future scientific research, applications and services.

Panelists: Vidya Anderson, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, Toronto, Canada Pierre Gosselin, INSPQ, Québec, Canada Carol Mee, Toronto Public Health, Toronto, Canada Jay Storfer, Health Canada, Ottawa, Canada

116 Thursday, August 21 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS249 Room 519 B 12:30 - 14:00 ISS - Cryosphere-Ocean-Atmosphere, Coupling & Interaction

Chair: Diana Verseghy

12:30 SCI-PS249.01 - Snow cover physical properties and impacts on surface atmospheric fluxes 1 1 Eric Brun , Météo-France CNRM/GAME, Toulouse, France

13:00 SCI-PS249.02 - Foehn jets and their implications for the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica Andrew Elvidge1, Ian Renfrew1, John King2, Adrian Luckman3, Andrew Orr2, Tom Lachlan-Cope2, Mark Weeks4, Sue Gray5, 1UEA, Norwich, UK, 2British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK, 3Swansea University, Swansea, UK, 4Met 5 Office, Exeter, UK, University of Reading, Reading, UK

13:20 SCI-PS249.03 - Parameterizing the effects of leads upon the atmosphere and surface fluxes of the Arctic Ocean Steven K. Krueger1, James R. Stoll1, Courtenay Strong1, Hongjie Xie2, 1 2 University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA, University of Texas, San Antonio, USA

13:40 SCI-PS249.04 - Connection between weakening of stratospheric polar vortex and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Sung-Ho Woo1, Jong-Seong Kug1, Mi-Kyung Sung2, Seok-Woo Son3, 1Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, South Korea, 2Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, South Korea, 3Seoul National University, Seoul,

South Korea

SCI-PS250 Room 524 A 12:30 - 14:00 NPE - Environmental Prediction Systems: Tropical Aspects

Chair: Jenni Evans

12:30 SCI-PS250.01 - Recent progresses of regional tropical cyclone numerical prediction model in China Yihong Duan1, Leiming Ma2, 1Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, 2 Beijing, China, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China

13:00 SCI-PS250.02 - Météo-France next generation NWP systems for tropical overseas territories Ghislain Faure1, Olivier Bousquet2, Soline Bielli2, David Barbary2, Philippe Chambon1, 1Météo-France / CNRS CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France, 2Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones, CNRS / Météo-France / Université

de La Réunion, Saint-Denis de La Réunion, France

13:20 SCI-PS250.03 - The DACCIWA Project: Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud interactions in West Africa 1 1 Peter Knippertz , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

13:40 SCI-PS250.04 - Assimilation of satellite-based temperature and moisture soundings on mesoscale analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclone Ting-Chi Wu1, Sharan Majumdar1, Hui Liu2, Jun Li3, Chris Velden3, Jeffrey Anderson2, 1University of Miami, Miami, USA, 2National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA, 3University of Wisconsin-Madison, Cooperative Institute

for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, USA

117 Thursday, August 21 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

SCI-PS251 Room 524 B 12:30 - 14:00 WHI - Improved understanding of the synergies and science- based needs of multi-hazard events

Chair: Ken Mylne

12:30 SCI-PS251.01 - Mitigating the impact of weather hazards on aviation Thomas Gerz1, 1Institute of Atmospheric Physics, DLR Oberpfaffenhofen,

Weßling, Germany

13:00 SCI-PS251.02 - Using TRMM precipitation estimates to understand landslide occurrence in Papua New Guinea 1 1 Joanne Robbins , Met Office, Exeter, UK

13:20 SCI-PS251.03 - FireWork: The Canadian air quality forecast system with online wildfire emissions Sylvain Ménard1, Radenko Pavlovic1, Jack Chen1, David Anselmo1, Paul- André Beaulieu1, Mourad Sassi1, Sylvie Gravel1, Mike Moran1, Didier 1 1 Davignon , Environnement Canada,Dorval, Canada

13:40 SCI-PS251.04 - Reliability analysis for drought early warning in an ecological system 1 1 Arman Ganji , UQAM, Montreal, Canada

SCI-PS252 Room 524 C 12:30 - 14:00 ODA - Coupled data assimilation and reanalyses

Chair: Dale Barker

12:30 SCI-PS252.01 - A case for strongly coupled data assimilation: impact of scatterometer winds on ocean analyses Sergey Frolov1, Craig Bishop2, Teddy Holt2, James Cummings3, David Kuhl4, 1UCAR, Monterey, USA, 2NRL, Monterey, USA, 3NRL, Stennis, USA, 4NRL,

Washington, USA

13:00 SCI-PS252.02 - The NCAR Community Earth System Model coupled data assimilation system Abhishek Chatterjee1, Alicia Karspeck1, Jeffrey Anderson1, Nancy Collins1, Gokhan Danabasoglu1, Timothy Hoar1, Kevin Raeder1, Joseph Tribbia1, 1 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA

13:20 SCI-PS252.03 - A high-resolution reanalysis for the European CORDEX region Jan Keller1,2, Christian Ohlwein1,3, Andreas Hense3, Petra Friederichs3, Susanne Crewell4, 1Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring Branch, 2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 3University of Bonn, 4 Germany, University of Cologne, Germany

13:40 SCI-PS252.04 - Preparation of land surface dataset over India using High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) Hara Prasad Nayak1, Manabottam Mandal1, 1Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences,Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, West

Bengal, India

118 Thursday, August 21 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

SCI-PS253 Room 519 A 12:30 - 14:00 ODA - Ocean and cryosphere observations and their assimilation

Chair: Peter Minnett

12:30 SCI-PS253.01 - Variational assimilation in a coastal ocean model using another model's adjoint: the AVRORA-SHOC assimilation system Chaojiao Sun1, Peter Oke2, Alexander Kurapov3, 1CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Perth, Australia, 2CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Australia, 3College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences,

Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA

13:00 SCI-PS253.02 - Assimilation of VIS/NIR reflectance data into the detailed snowpack model SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus Luc Charrois1,2, Marie Dumont1, Emmanuel Cosme2, Matthieu Lafaysse1, Samuel Morin1, Quentin Libois2, Ghislain Picard2, Laurent Arnaud2, 1Mété- France/CNRS, CNRM-GAME, CEN, Grenoble, France, 2Université Joseph

Fourier, Grenoble 1, LGGE, Grenoble, France

13:20 SCI-PS253.03 - The CONCEPTS global ice-ocean prediction system: Establishing an environmental prediction capability in Canada Dorina Surcel Colan1, Gregory C. Smith2, Francois Roy2, Mateusz Reszka1, Zhongjie He2, Fraser Davidson3, Hal Ritchie4, Youyu Lu5, Marie Drevillon6, Benoit Tranchant7, 1Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment Canada, Dorval, CANADA, 2Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, CANADA, 3Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, St. John’s,CANADA, 4Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dartmouth, CANADA, 5Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Bedford,CANADA, 6Mercator-Océan, Toulouse, FRANCE, 7 Collecte Localisation Spatiale (CLS),Toulouse, FRANCE

13:40 SCI-PS253.04 - Ensemble-variational sea ice data assimilation Anna Shlyaeva1, Mark Buehner1, Alain Caya1, Jean-Francois Lemieux2, Gregory Smith2, Francois Roy2, Tom Carrieres3, 1Data Assimilation and Satellite Meteorology Research, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2Environmental Numerical Prediction Research, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 3Canadian

Ice Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Canada

SCI-PS254 Room 518 B-C 12:30 - 14:00 P&P - Dynamics & predictability of middle latitude weather systems & their higher and lower latitude interactions

Chair: Thomas Jung

12:30 SCI-PS254.01 - Moisture transport to Antarctica by extra-tropical cyclones as simulated with OpenIFS Victoria Sinclair1, Glenn Carver2, Timo Vihma3, Heikki Järvinen1, 1Department of Physics, University of Helsinki. Helsinki, Finland, 2OpenIFS, Numerical Aspects, 3 ECMWF, Reading, UK, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

13:00 SCI-PS254.02 - A multi-scale perspective of Arctic to tropical interactions for a high impact event over Europe Steven Cavallo1, Melvyn Shapiro2, 1University of Oklahoma School of 2 Meteorology, Norman, USA, NCAR, Boulder, USA

119 Thursday, August 21 ORAL PRESENTATIONS World Weather Open Science 2014

13:20 SCI-PS254.03 - An examination of the persistent Northern Hemisphere cold pool during the winter of 2013-2014 1 1 1 Eyad Atallah , John Gyakum , McGill University, Montreal, Canada

13:40 SCI-PS254.04 - Dynamical coupling between high and low latitude regions during 2009 sudden stratospheric warming event 1 1 1 Vinay Kumar , Surendra Kumar Dhaka , University of Delhi, Delhi, India

SCI-PS255 Room 520 A 12:30 - 14:00 P&P - Numerical methods of the atmosphere & ocean (including composition & boundary layer at all latitudes)

Chair: Hirofumi Tomita

12:30 SCI-PS255.01 - Earth's flattening: which impact for meteorology and climatology ? 1 1 Pierre Bénard , CNRM/GAME, Météo-France, Toulouse, France

13:00 SCI-PS255.02 - Sensitivity of short-range forecasting with the AROME model to a modified semi-Lagrangian scheme and high-resolution. Didier Ricard1, Sylvie Malardel2, Yann Seity1, 1CNRM-GAME, Météo-France 2 CNRS, Toulouse, France, ECMWF, Reading, UK

13:20 SCI-PS255.03 - Inherently mass-conservative semi-Lagrangian transport scheme and global hydrostatic atmospheric model Vladimir Shashkin1,2, Mikhail Tolstykh1,2, Rostislav Fadeev2, 1Hydrometeorological centre of Russia, Moscow, Russia, 2Institute of numerical

mathematics, Russian academy of sciences, Moscow, Russia

13:40 SCI-PS255.04 - Achieving seventh-order amplitude accuracy in leapfrog integrations 1 1 Paul Williams , University of Reading, Reading, UK

SCI-PS256 Room 520 B 12:30 - 14:00 P&P - Stochastic forcing, Ensemble prediction systems and TIGGE

Chair: Simon Lang

12:30 SCI-PS256.01 - Tigge Ensemble Forecasts with useful skill-spread relationships for African Meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting 1 1 Thomas Hopson , NCAR, Boulder, USA

13:00 SCI-PS256.02 - Predictability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in medium-range forecasts 1 1 1 Mio Matsueda , Tim Palmer , University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

13:20 SCI-PS256.03 - How predictable was the 2014 North American cold wave in medium-range forecasts? Tetsuo Nakazawa1, Mio Matsueda2, 1WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, 2University of

Oxford, Oxford, UK

120 Thursday, August 21 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada ORAL PRESENTATIONS

13:40 SCI-PS256.04 - Evaluation of TIGGE ensemble predictions of Northern Hemisphere summer precipitation during 2008-2012 Huiling Yuan1,2, Xiang Su1, Yuejian Zhu3, Yan Luo3,4, Yuan Wang1, 1Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, 2Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, China, 3Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, USA, 4I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College

Park, USA

SCI-PS257 Room 520 C 12:30 - 14:00 Sub-grid parameterizations for the atmosphere and ocean

Chair: Andy Brown

12:30 SCI-PS257.01 - Unified convection parameterizations: A Stochastic Eddy- Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (EDMF) approach Joao Teixeira1, Kay Suselj1, Marcin Witek1, Kenta Suzuki1, 1JPL/Caltech,

Pasadena, USA

13:00 SCI-PS257.02 - Cloud subgrid-scale inhomogeneity in a climate model: radiative impacts compared to satellites observations Danahé Paquin-Ricard1, Paul A. Vaillancourt2, Jason N. S. Cole3, Howard W. Barker4, 1University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, Canada, 2RPN, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 3CCCMA, Environment Canada, Toronto, 4 Canada, Cloud Physics, Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada

13:20 SCI-PS257.03 - A data-driven stochastic parameterization of deep convection Jesse Dorrestijn1, Daan Crommelin1, Harm Jonker3, Frank Selten2, Pier Siebesma2, 1CWI, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 2KNMI, De Bilt, The 3 Netherlands, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

13:40 SCI-PS257.04 - Convection-permitting, multiscale modeling with the HARMONIE forecast system Piet Termonia1, Daan Degrauwe1, Jeanette Onvlee2, 1Royal Meterorological 2 Institute, Brussels, Belgium, KNMI, De Bilt, The Netherlands

121 Sunday, August 17 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

07:30 - 09:00 Poster Set-up Room 220 D-E

15:00 - 16:30 Poster Session Room 220 D-E

15:00 SCI-POS1009 - Seasonal trends, variability and relationship of soil moisture with precipitation in the Philippines Erika Mari Macapagal1, Gay Jane Perez1, 1University of the Philippines Diliman,

Quezon City, Philippines

15:00 SCI-POS1011 - CentNet—A deployable 100-station network for surface exchange research Steven Oncley1, Steven Semmer1, Thomas Horst1, John Militzer1, Gordon Maclean1, Kurt Knudson1, Chris Golubieski2, Steven Cohn1, 1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA, 2National Renewable Energy

Laboratory, Golden, USA

15:00 SCI-POS1016 - Data management methods in the service of supporting background for regional climate prediction Tamas Kovacs1, Tamas Szentimrey1, Zita Bihari1, Monika Lakatos1, 1 Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary

15:00 SCI-POS1018 - Using webcam imaging to validate the SAFNWC Cloud Top Height product over Switzerland Simona Trefalt1,2, Daniele Nerini2, Marco Gaia2, 1University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, 2Federal Office for Climarology and Meteorology MeteoSwiss,

Locarno, Switzerland

15:00 SCI-POS1038 - Sensitivity experiments to design a regional assimilation system combining the LETKF and the WRF model Marcos Saucedo1,2, Juan Ruiz1,2, Celeste Saulo1,2, 1Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de

Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

15:00 SCI-POS1042 - Observability of precursors to instability in a 1D nonlinear wave model with local barotropic instability Martin Deshaies-Jacques1, Pierre Gauthier1, 1Université du Québec à Montréal,

Montréal, Canada

15:00 SCI-POS1046 - Observation impacts using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation Data Assimilation System for regional applications Kathryn Newman1,2, Ming Hu2,3, Hui Shao1,2, 1National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Research Applications Laboratory (RAL), Boulder, USA, 2Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), Boulder, USA, 3National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Global Systems Division (GSD), Boulder, USA*

15:00 SCI-POS1050 - An adaptive data assimilation approach and tests Bin Wang1,2, Juanjuan Liu1, Bing Lu1, 1LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, 2Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

122 Sunday, August 17 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 SCI-POS1067 - Verifying NWP model analyses and forecasts using simulated satellite imagery 1 1 1 Thomas Blackmore , Roger Saunders , Met Office, Exeter, UK

15:00 SCI-POS1071 - Mesoscale assimilation of high-resolution Atmospheric Motion Vectors from satellite rapid-scans in high-impact weather events Christopher Velden1, Sharanya Majumdar2, 1University of Wisconsin, Madison, 2 Wisconsin, USA, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA

15:00 SCI-POS1075 - A numerical study of Southern Ontario Squall Line Event in 2009 with data assimilation Zhan Li1, Yongsheng Chen1, Peter Taylor1, Iain Russell2, 1York University, 2 Toronto, Canada, The Weather Network, Toronto, Canada

15:00 SCI-POS1079 - Height correction of AMVs using satellite lidar observations from CALIPSO Martin Weissmann1, Kathrin Folger1, 1Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research,

LMU, Munich, Germany

15:00 SCI-POS1083 - Quantification of the impact of T-PARC Typhoon Jangmi (2008) on the midlatitude flow Christian M. Grams1, Sarah C. Jones2, Christopher A. Davis3, Patrick A. Harr4, Martin Weissmann5, 1Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany, and Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 3Mesoscale and Microscale Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 4Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, 5Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research, Data Assimilation Branch, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München,

Germany

15:00 SCI-POS1084 - T-NAWDEX-Falcon: Lagrangian observations of warm conveyor belt air masses Andreas Schäfler1, Maxi Boettcher2, Andreas Dörnbrack1, Christian M. Grams2, Stefan Kaufmann1, Marc Rautenhaus3, Christiane Voigt1,4, Heini Wernli2, 1Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt (DLR), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany, 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 3Computer Graphics and Visualisation Group, Technische Universität München, Garching, Germany, 4Institute for

Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Mainz, Germany

15:00 SCI-POS1085 - International cooperation and technological advances pave the way: from GARP (1967-1982) to THORPEX (2005-2014) 1 1 Hans Volkert , DLR-IPA, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

15:00 SCI-POS1086 - Structural Characteristics of T-PARC Typhoon Kinkalu during its extratropical transition Julian F. Quinting1, Sarah C. Jones2, Patrick A. Harr3, Michael M. Bell4, 1Karlsruhe Institute ofTechnology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 3Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA, 4 Univesity of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA

123 Sunday, August 17 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 SCI-POS1087 - Observations - Eyewall structure of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) during the transformation stage of extratropical transition Annette M. Foerster1, Michael M. Bell1, Patrick A. Harr2, Sarah C. Jones3, 1University of Hawaii at Minoa, USA, 2Naval Post Graduate School, Monterey, 3 USA, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

15:00 SCI-POS1088 - HIWeather: Growing resilience to high impact weather Brian Golding1, Sarah Jones2, HI Weather Task Team1, 1Met Office, Exeter, 2 UK, DWD, Offenbach, Germany

15:00 SCI-POS1089 - Atmospheric water parameters measured by a ground-based microwave radiometer and compared with the WRF model Federico Cossu1,4, Klemens Hocke1,4, Andrey Martynov2,3,4, Olivia Romppainen-Martius2,3,4, 1Institute of Applied Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, 2Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, 3Mobiliar Group for Climate Impact Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, 4Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern,

Bern, Switzerland

15:00 SCI-POS1091 - Danger at Sea: Diagnosing and communicating the threat for strong maritime thunderstorms Michael Folmer1, Alexandra Stinner2, Joseph Sienkiewicz3, Hugh Cobb4, Christine Schultz5, Scott Rudlosky6, Steve Goodman7, 1University of Maryland/ESSIC/CICS, College Park, USA, 2U.S. Coast Guard Academy, New London, USA, 3NOAA/NWS/OPC, College Park, USA, 4NOAA/NWS/NHC/TAFB, Miami, USA, 5NOAA Corps, College Park, USA, 6NESDIS/STAR, College Park, 7 USA, GOES-R Program Office, Greenbelt, USA

15:00 SCI-POS1093 - A deployable atmospheric profiling network, and the NCAR 449-MHz Modular Wind Profiler Stephen Cohn1, William Browm1, Terry Hock1, Charlie Martin1, Phillip Chilson2, Junhong Wang1, 1NCAR Earth Observing Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA, 2 NCAR/EOL and University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA

15:00 SCI-POS1095 - Feature Extraction for Remote Sensing Data using Massive Parallel Processors 1 1 Stefan Robila , Montclair State University, Montclair, USA

15:00 SCI-POS1099 - Atmospheric nano-particle properties and climate impacts 1 1 Olakunle Omidiora , C'a Foscari University of Venice, Italy

15:00 SCI-POS1101 - Evaluation of data assimilation for comprehensive aerosol model in East Asia Seungbum Kim1, Sang-Sam Lee1, Jeong-Hoon Cho1, Jae-Bok Lee1, Eunha Lim1, Jae-Cheol Nam1, 1National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea

Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Republic of Korea

15:00 SCI-POS1103 - VAQUM: Environment Canada’s Air Quality Verification System Samuel Gilbert1, Radenko Pavlovic1, Paul-André Beaulieu1, Hugo Landry1, David Anselmo1, Didier Davignon1, Mike Moran2, 1Air Quality Modeling and Applications Section, Environment Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada, 2Air Quality

Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada

124 Sunday, August 17 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 SCI-POS1105 - Impact of mineral dust particles on radiation and cloud coverage Heike Vogel1, Jochen Förstner2, Carmen Köhler2, Bodo Ritter2, Daniel Rieger1, Bernhard Vogel1, 1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany, 2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

15:00 SCI-POS1107 - Detailed impacts of aerosols on clouds and precipitation in a winter cyclone Gregory Thompson1, Trude Eidhammer1, 1National Center for Atmospheric

Research, Boulder, USA

15:00 SCI-POS1109 - Why can’t current large-scale models predict mixed-phase altocumulus correctly? Andrew Barrett1, Robin Hogan1, Richard Forbes2, 1University of Reading, 2 Reading, UK, ECMWF, Reading, UK

15:00 SCI-POS1111 - Evaluation of a microwave radiometer thermodynamic retrieval algorithm Stephen Castleberry1, David Turner2, David Parsons1, 1University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology, Norman,OK, USA, 2National Severe Storms Laboratory,

Norman,OK, USA

15:00 SCI-POS1113 - Reformulation of the Milbrandt and Yau (2005) microphysics parameterization using log-normal size distributions 1 1 1 Wan Ting Katty Huang , M. K. Yau , McGill University, Montreal, Canada

15:00 SCI-POS1143 - Projection of extreme rainfall related to the tropical cyclone landfall over East Asia 1 1 1 Min-Hee Lee , Chang-Hoi Ho , Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea

15:00 SCI-POS1145 - On the northward moisture transport by ageostrophic wind associated with a tropical cyclone 1 1 Kazuo Saito , Meteorological Research Insitute, Tsukuba, Japan

15:00 SCI-POS1149 - Singular vectors for idealised tropical cyclone scenarios: Structure and perturbation growth mechanisms Leonhard Scheck1, Martin Baumann2, Sarah Jones3, Vinvent Heuveline2, 1Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2Engineering Mathematics and Computing Lab, University Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany, 3Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach,

Germany

15:00 SCI-POS1162 - Construction of extreme rainstorm probability prediction index based on radar echo Jianhong Wang1, Wei Huang2, Qun Wang3, Chunsheng Miao1, Liangmou Xu3, 1Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China, 2Jilin Meteorological Institute, Changchun, China, 3Yancheng Meteorological Bureau, Yancheng, China

15:00 SCI-POS1170 - Comparison between two rainstorm meso-scale vortices circumambulated mountain dabieshan from both sides during Meiyu season Chunsheng Miao1, Weixin Liu2, Jianhong Wang3, Min Wu4, Ting Li5, 1School of Atmospheric Sciences, NUIST, Nanjing, China, 2Meteorological Center, No.95072 Army of PLA, Nanning, China, 3Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, China, 4Meteorological Observatory, No.94995 Army of PLA, Nantong, China, 5Ningxia Meteorological Observatory, Yinchuan, China

125 Sunday, August 17 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 SCI-POS1174 - Extreme precipitation events in northern Switzerland Paraskevi Giannakaki1, Benjamin Stucky2, Olivia Martius1, 1Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research & Institute of Geography,University of Bern, Bern, 2 Switzerland, Department of Mathematics,ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

15:00 SCI-POS1178 - Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms? Peter Knippertz1, Tomek M. Trzeciak2, Jenny S. R. Owen2, 1Karlsruhe Institute 2 of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

15:00 SCI-POS1182 - Analysis of missed summer severe rainfall events over Ontario, Canada 1 1 Zuohao Cao , Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada

15:00 SCI-POS1186 - Variation of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and associated quantified objective idexes 1 1 Ronghua Jin , National Meteorological Center,Beijing,China

15:00 SCI-POS1190 - The role of radiative forcing in teleconnections and predictability of southern African seasonal climate Francois Engelbrecht1, Willem Landman1, Thando Ndarana1, 1Council for

Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa

15:00 SCI-POS1192 - Study of low predicatibility cases of Northern Atlantic weather regimes abrupt transitions Bruno Joly1, Riviere Gwendal2, Philippe Arbogast1, 1Meteo-France, CNRM - 2 GAME, Toulouse, France, LMD, Paris, France

15:00 SCI-POS1194 - A comparison of ERA interim reanalysis data with meteorological observations from the central Arctic Christof Lüpkes1, Gert König-Langlo1, Timo Vihma2, Erko Jakobson3, Amelie Tetzlaff1, Ulrike Wacker1, 1Alfred Wegener Instiute, Bremerhaven, Germany, 2Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, 3Tartu Observatory, Toravere,

Estonia

15:00 SCI-POS1196 - Could mid-latitude weather forecasts be improved if we had perfect knowledge of the polar atmosphere? Marta Anna Kasper1, Tido Semmler1, Thomas Jung1, Soumia Serrar1, 1Alfred

Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

15:00 SCI-POS1198 - Polar sea ice cover based on results of the CMIP5 models Fernanda Casagrande1, Paulo Nobre2, Ronald Souza3, 1CCST, INPE, Brazil, 2 3 CPTEC, INPE, Brazil, Antarctic Program, INPE, Brazil

15:00 SCI-POS1200 - Multi-decadal mobility of the North Atlantic Oscillation Kent Moore1, Ian Renfrew2, Bob Pickart3, 1University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada, 2University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 3Woods Hole Oceanographic

Institution, Falmouth, USA

15:00 SCI-POS1202 - Climatology and dynamical aspects of polar lows over the Nordic Seas Clio Michel1, Thomas Spengler1, 1Geophysical Institute UiB and BCCR, Bergen,

Norway

126 Sunday, August 17 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 SCI-POS1203 - Report of a NOAA workshop on predicting arctic weather and climate and related impacts 1 1 Randall Dole , NOAA ESRL/PSD, Boulder CO, USA

15:00 SCI-POS1222 - Anomalous weather patterns in relation to precipitation events during summer in Japan Masamichi Ohba1, Daisuke Nohara1, Yoshikatsu Yoshida1, Shinji Kadokura1, Yasushi Toyoda1, 1Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko,

Japan

15:00 SCI-POS1224 - Nowcasting of Lake-effect snow rates using both satellite and model sounding data 1 1 1 Kwok K. Chung , Guilong Li , Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

15:00 SCI-POS1226 - An Aatomatic high wind forecast and warning system for construction projects and municipalities Ron J. Chapman1, Darren M. Cherneski1, Martin Gauthier2, 1RWDI, Calgary, 2 Alberta, Canada, RWDI, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

15:00 SCI-POS1228 - Evaluation of wind plant power loss with a coupled atmospheric-ice load model Jing Yang1, Wei Yu1, Julien Choisnard2, Alain Forcione3, Slavica Antic2, 1Environment Canada, Meteorological Research Division, Canada, 2Hydro Québec, Montreal, Canada, 3Hydro-Québec Research Institute (IREQ), Varennes,

Canada

15:00 SCI-POS1234 - Current development and preliminary operational evaluation of the Regional Ice Prediction System (RIPS) Jack Chen1, Mark Buehner2, Tom Carrieres1, Alain Caya2, Fred Dupont2, Jean-Francois Lemieus2, Lynn Pogson1, 1Environment Canada, Canadian Ice Service, Meteorological Services of Canada, Ottawa, Canada, 2Environment

Canada, Meteorological Research, Science and Technology Branch, Canada

15:00 SCI-POS1236 - Interannual variations of precipitation at two mountain observatories and their teleconnections with spring persistent precipitation Jingjing Chen1, Jianming Zhang1, Chengzhi Ye2, 1Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha, P. R. China, 2Zhuzhou Meteorological Bureau, Zhuzhou,

P. R. China

15:00 UAS-POS3000 - Improving meteorological services to Canadian Armed Forces through research and development, science transfer and training Paul Yang1, Marie-France Turcotte1, David Dégardin1, Abdoulaye Harou2, Carmen Snyder1, Lt.-Col Joseph Barry3, 1Joint Meteoroligcal Centre, Defence Weather Services, Oromocto, NB, Canada, 2Defence Weather Services, Gatineau, QC, Canada, 3Joint Meteorological Centre, Department of National Defence,

Oromocto, NB, Canada

15:00 UAS-POS3001 - Spatial effects of climate change on agricultural production and food security in Eastern Africa Joshua Ngaina1,2, Nicholus Maingi1,3, Elijah Mukhala1, 1World Meteorological Organization, Eastern and Southern Africa Region, 2Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya, 3Kenya Meteorological Department, Ministry of

Environment, Water and Natural Resources, Kenya

127 Sunday, August 17 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 UAS-POS3002 - A prototype WRF-based wind power forecasting tool for Argentina Celeste Saulo1,2, Cristian Waimann1, Pierre Pinson3, 1Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, UMI-IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2Universidad de Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 3Technical University of Denmark, Center for

Electric Power and Energy, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark

15:00 UAS-POS3004 - The application of Satellite Sensed Winds and Waves for marine weather warnings and forecasts Paul Chang1, Zorana Jelenak2, Gregory McFadden3, John Lillibridge1, Frances Achorn5, Christopher Juckins5, Benjamin Albright6, Joseph Sienkiewicz5, 1NOAA NESDIS StAR, College Park, MD, USA, 2NOAA NESDIS StAR / UCAR, College Park, MD, USA, 3IMSG, College Park, MD, USA, 4NOAA NESDIS StAR, College Park, MD, USA, 5NOAA Ocean Prediction Center, College Park, MD, 6 USA, Howard University, Washington, D.C., USA

15:00 UAS-POS3005 - Estimating road accident occurrence functions in response to bad weather and weather warnings Adriaan Perrels1, Väinö Nurmi1, 1Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki,

Finland

15:00 UAS-POS3006 - Wave characteristics of Indonesian waters for sea transport safety and planning Mia Khusnul Khotimah1, Roni Kurniawan2, 1Center for Public Meteorology BMKG, Jakarta, Indonesia, 2Center for Research & Development BMKG, Jakarta, Indonesia

15:00 UAS-POS3007 - Projected changes to ice surfaces of the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road, NWT, Canada Erika Zell1, Claude Duguay1, Chris Derksen2, Laura Brown2, 1University of 2 Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada, Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada

15:00 UAS-POS3008 - Climate change and winter road maintenance in Prince George, BC Lindsay Matthews1, Jean Andrey1, 1University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada

15:00 UAS-POS3034 - Hurricane prediction and communication dynamics in the modern information environment Rebecca Morss1, Kenneth Anderson2, C. Michael Barton3, Christopher Davis1, Julie Demuth1, Heather Lazrus1, Leysia Palen2, Chris Snyder1, Olga Wilhelmi1, 1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA, 2University of 3 Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA

128 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 - 16:30

Poster Session Room 220 D-E

15:00 SCI-POM1003 - The impact of polar mesoscale storms on northeast Atlantic Ocean circulation Ian Renfrew1, Alan Condron2, 1UEA, Norwich, UK, 2University of

Massachussetts, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1005 - Discretization-aware interpolation in coupled models Robert Jacob1, Timothy Tautges1, Jayesh Krishna1, Vijay Mahadevan1, 1 Argonne National Laboratory, Chicago, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1007 - Numerical Simulation of effects of Cloud Seeding on precipitation over Equatorial East Africa Joshua Ngaina1, Nzioka Muthama1, Alfred Opere1, Joseph Ininda1, 1 Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya

15:00 SCI-POM1008 - Comparing and combining of observation-based QPE methods with high-resolution numerical weather prediction and data assimilation Hans-Stefan Bauer1, Thomas Schwitalla1, Volker Wulfmeyer1, Atoossa Bakhshaii-Shahrbabaki1, Uwe Ehret2, Malte Neuper2, 1University of Hohenheim, 2 Stuttgart, Germany, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

15:00 SCI-POM1010 - Photon recollision probability based study on the fPAR of forest canopies Terhikki Manninen1, Pauline Stenberg2, 1Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2 Helsinki, Finland, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland

15:00 SCI-POM1017 - Probabilistic assessment of rainy season onset forecasts Caio Coelho1, Mari Firpo1, Aline Maia2, 1CPTEC/INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, 2 Brazil, EMBRAPA Meio Ambiente, Jaguariuna, Brazil

15:00 SCI-POM1019 - Implications of 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover on global wildfires Yaoxian Huang1, Shiliang Wu2, 1Department of Geological/Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA, 2Atmospheric Sciences Program, Department of Geological/Mining Engineering and Sciences, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan

Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1020 - The coupled atmospheric-ocean-chemistry FIM global model Stan Benjamin1, Rainer Bleck1, Shan Sun1, Georg Grell1, Jian-Wen Bao1, Michael Fiorino1, John Brown1, 1NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory,

Boulder, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1021 - Operational and research comparisons of a global variable resolution model to a limited area model Kelton Halbert1, Steven Cavallo1, 1University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA

129 Monday, August 18 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 SCI-POM1022 - Climate models' bias in surface temperature trends and variability due to treatment of boundary layer Richard Davy1, Igor Esau1, 1Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center,

Bergen, Norway

15:00 SCI-POM1023 - GPU Technology for computational acceleration of NWP Models Stan Posey1, Peter Messmer2, 1NVIDIA Corportation, Santa Clara, USA, 2 NVIDIA Corporation, Zurich, CH

15:00 SCI-POM1025 - Wintertime sub-kilometric numerical forecasts of near- surface variables in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Vincent Vionnet1,2, Stéphane Bélair1, Claude Girard1, André Plante3, 1Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada, 2Météo-France/CNRS, CNRM-GAME, CEN, St Martin d'Hères, France, 3Canadian

Meteorological Centre, Environment Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada

15:00 SCI-POM1039 - Tangent linear and adjoint models for the High-Order Method Modelling Environment dynamical core Sangil Kim1, Byoung-Joo Jung1, Youngsoon Jo1, 1Korea Institute of

Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, South Korea

15:00 SCI-POM1043 - The impacts of pressure level decisions on the KIAPS observation processing system Jeon-Ho Kang1, Hataek Kwon1, Sihye Lee1, Hyoung-Wook Chun1, Ju-Hye Kim1, 1Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS), Seoul, South

Korea

15:00 SCI-POM1047 - Progress report on the development of GMAO’s 4DVar and preliminary comparison with 4D-EnsVar Joanna Pelc1, Ricardo Todling1, Amal El Akkraoui1,2, 1NASA/GMAO, Greenbelt, 2 MD, USA, NASA/GMAO/SSAI, Greenbelt, MD, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1052 - The Improvement on IDW and its application on T variable in dense observation network Xin Wang1, Chunsheng Miao1, Jianhong Wang2, 1College of Atmospheric Sciences, NUIST, Nanjing, China, 2School of Marine Sciences, NUIST, Nanjing.

China

15:00 SCI-POM1055 - WRF dual polarized radar forward operator evaluation on a supercell event in Central Europe Atoossa Bakhshaii1, Thomas Schwitalla Schwitalla1, Hans-Stefan Bauer1, Volker Wulfmeyer1, 1Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of

Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany

15:00 SCI-POM1058 - The evaluation and monitoring of surface air quality species at the Canadian Meteorological Center Yulia Zaitseva1, Alain Robichaud2, Christophe Malek1, 1Canadian Meteorological Center, Dorval, Canada, 2Atmospheric Science and Technology

Division, Dorval, Canada

130 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 SCI-POM1061 - Latest study results toward improving the UV index forecasts at Environment Canada Yves Rochon1, Jean deGrandpré2, Vitali Fioletov1, Paul Vaillancourt2, 1 2 Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

15:00 SCI-POM1064 - Assimilation of Near-Real-Time Albedo and Leaf-Area-Index for weather parameters and CO2 Souhail Boussetta1, Gianpaolo Balsamo1, Emanuel Dutra1, Anton Beljaars1, 1 ECMWF, Reading, UK

15:00 SCI-POM1066 - Black carbon in the foothills of the Himalayas Maheswar Rupakheti1, Arnico Panday2, Paolo Bonasoni3, Manish Naja4, Sang Woo Kim5, Örjan Gustafsson6, P.S. Praveen1, Khadak Mahata1, Mark Lawrence1, 1Institute for Advanced Sustainabiity Studies, Potsdam, Germany, 2International Centre for integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal, 3Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council, Bologna, Italy, 4Aryabhatt Research Institute for Observational Sciences, Nainital, India, 5Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, 6Department of Applied

Environmental Science, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

15:00 SCI-POM1068 - The Meteorological Service of Canada’s network planning and design process-progress, challenges and future opportunities Alexander Zucconi1, Eleanor Blackburn1, Mike Manore2, Qian Li1, 1Environment 2 Canada, Toronto, Canada, Environment Canada, Ottawa, Canada

15:00 SCI-POM1072 - Assimilating snow depth measurement using Canadian Precipitation Analysis System (CaPA) Milena Dimitrijevic1, Vincent Fortin1, M. A. (Mac) Macleod2, Rick Fleetwood3, Jim Abraham4, Stephanie Mayfield2, 1Meteorological Research Division, Dorval, Canada, 2Scotia Weather Services Inc, Dartmouth, Canada, 3MSC Atlantic Operations, Fredericton, Canada, 4Monitoring and Networks, MSC, Halifax,

Canada

15:00 SCI-POM1076 - Constraining a 3DVAR Radar Data Assimilation System with large-scale analysis to improve short-range precipitation forecast Eder Vendrasco1, Juanzhen Sun2, Dirceu Herdies1, Carlos Angelis3, 1National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil, 2National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, 3National Center for Monitoring

and Early Warning of Natural Disaster, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil

15:00 SCI-POM1080 - Bayesian Analysis of orographic precipitation sensitivity to upwind sounding and terrain Samantha Tushaus1, Derek Posselt1, M. Marcello Miglietta2, Richard Rotunno3, Luca delle Monache3, 1University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA, 2 3 ISAC-CNR, Lecce/Padua, Italy, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1100 - Spatial allocation of Canadian 2010 arctic marine emissions Sophie Cousineau1, Jack Chen1,2, Mourad Sassi1, Samuel Ferguson1, Pierre- Antoine Auger1, 1Environnement Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2Environnement

Canada, Ottawa, Canada

15:00 SCI-POM1102 - Modeling wet and dry deposition of Cesium-137 from the Fukushima nuclear accident Jian Feng1, Alain Malo1, Pierre Bourgouin1, 1Meteorological Service Canada,

Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

131 Monday, August 18 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 SCI-POM1104 - Modeling ambient air VOC pollutants in Canada with AURAMS Calin Zaganescu1, Craig Stroud2, Jack Chen1, Mehrez Samaali1, Jacinthe Racine1, Samuel Gilbert1, 1Air Quality Modelling Applications Section, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada, 2Air Quality Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment

Canada, Toronto, Canada

15:00 SCI-POM1106 - Emissions inventory evaluation for air quality forecasting in Mexico Luisa Molina1, Agustin Garcia2, Miguel Zavala1, Marco Mora1, Ma. Magdalena Armenta1, Roberto Martinez3, Oscar Leon3, Hugo Landa3, David Parra3, 1Molina Center for Energy and the Environment, La Jolla, CA, USA, 2Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico, 3Secretaria de Medio Ambiente y

Recursos Naturales, Mexico

15:00 SCI-POM1108 - Evaluation of cloud macrophysics schemes in a global model So-Young Kim1, 1Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul,

South Korea

15:00 SCI-POM1112 - Cloud classification using solar radiation data from NARIT Thai National Observatory at Doi Inthanon, Thailand Thiranan Sonkaew1, Ronald C. Macatangay2, Suparerk Aukkaravittayapun3, Ninnika Kaewpanya1, Atchara Apaikawee1, Somsawat Rattanasoon3, Boonrucksar Soonthornthum3, 1Science Faculty, Lampang Rajabhat University, Lampang, Thailand, 2Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology/Natural Sciences Research Institute, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines, 3National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand, Chiang Mai,

Thailand

15:00 SCI-POM1150 - Coupling of Bay of Bengal cyclones with the Myanmar monsoon onset in a changing climate 1 1 1 Boniface Fosu , Shih-Yu Wang , Utah State University, Logan,Utah, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1154 - Predictability of the Typhoon Haiyan with the new weather forecasting model ICON Daniel Klocke1, Martin Köhler1, Julia Keller1, Bodo Ritter1, Anna Fernandez del 1 1 1 Rio , Günther Zängl , German Meteorological Service, Offenbach, Germany

15:00 SCI-POM1165 - Quantifying the midlatitude impact of extratropical transition: From case studies to a composite view Christian M. Grams1, Heather M. Archambault2, 1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, 2Department of Meteorology, Naval

Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1167 - Analysis of three-dimensional motion on an intense anomaly ocean-effect snowstorm in Bohai Sea Liu-xi Gao1, Cheng Fang Yang1, 1Shandong Meteorological Observatory, Jinan,

China

132 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 SCI-POM1171 - ZDR columns and their practical diagnostic and prognostic value in Germany compared to the U.S.A. Silke Troemel1, Raquel Evaristo2, Alexander Ryzhkov3, Clemens Simmer2, 1University of Bonn, Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability Branch, Bonn, Germany, 2University of Bonn, Meteorological Institute, Bonn, Germany, 3Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/OAR/National Severe

Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1175 - Microphysical processes along the warm conveyor belt from an idealized perspective Sebastiaan Crezee1, Hanna Joos1, Heini Wernli1, 1ETH Zürich, Zürich,

Switzerland

15:00 SCI-POM1179 - A new assessment model for ensemble-based predictability of persistent heavy rainfall events over East Asia Jing Chen1, Zhipeng Wu1, 1Numerical Weather Prediction Center, CMA, Beijing,

China

15:00 SCI-POM1183 - Predictability of seasonal climate over South African Provinces and their relationships to climate indices Kamoru Lawal1, Daithi Stone2, Babatunde Abiodun1, 1University of Cape Town, 2 Cape Town, South Africa, Lawarence Berkeley Laboratory, California, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1185 - A new approach on approximations of Available Potential Energy and diagnosis of short-term increase events Kevin Bowley1, John Gyakum1, Eyad Atallah1, 1McGill University, Montreal,

Canada

15:00 SCI-POM1193 - A comparative study of WRF model simulations and aircraft observations in the Canadian Tundra Corinna Ziemer1, Ulrike Wacker1, Joerg Hartmann1, Torsten Sachs2, 1Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany, 2Helmholtz Center Potsdam, Deutsches

GeoForschungszentrum GFZ, Potsdam, Germany

15:00 SCI-POM1195 - The Polar Prediction Project - special poster submission Thomas Jung1, Peter Bauer2, 1AWI, Bremerhaven, Germany, 2European Centre

for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

15:00 SCI-POM1197 - The role of albedo in medium-range and seasonal forecasts of 2m temperature over snow Mikhail Tolstykh1,2, Alla Yurova2, 1Inst. of Numerical Mathematics RAS, Moscow 2 Russia, Hydrometcentre of Russia, Moscow, Russia

15:00 SCI-POM1199 - The connection of Arctic sea ice and hemispheric climate variability in the K-means cluster analysis Neven S. Fuckar1, Virginie Guemas1,2, Nathaniel C. Johnson3, Francisco J. Doblas Reyes1,4, 1Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain, 2Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques/Groupe d’Etude de l’Atmosphère-‐ Météorologique, Météo--France, CNRS, Toulouse, France, 3Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA, 4Instituciò Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA),

Barcelona, Spain

133 Monday, August 18 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 SCI-POM1201 - The ICECAPS Experiment at Summit, Greenland David Turner1, M.D. Shupe2, V.P. Walden3, R. Bennartz4, A. Solomon2, B. Castellani2, C. Cox2, N. Miller2, R. Neeley2, C. Pettersen5, 1NOAA National Severe Storms Lab, Norman, OK, USA, 2CIRES, Univ of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA, 3Washington State Univ, Pullman, WA, USA, 4Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, 5 TN, USA, SSEC, Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1205 - Introduction to the new seasonal forecasting system at KMA: A joint system with Met Office Hyun-Suk Kang1, Yu-Kyung Hyun1, Young-Hwa Byun1, ChunHo Cho1, Jae- 1 1 Cheol Nam , National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Korea

15:00 SCI-POM1209 - Real time prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon, 2013 N. Borah1, S. Abhilash1, A. K. Sahai1, R. Chattopadhyay1, S. Joseph1, S. Sur1, Bidyut Bikash Goswami2 1Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India 2Presenter only

15:00 SCI-POM1211 - Relative merit of CFSv2 improvement versus availability of retrospective forecasts for MJO Prediction 1 1 1 Qin Zhang , Huug van den Dool , CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA

15:00 SCI-POM1213 - Special Poster: The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project 1 1 Frederic Vitart , ECMWF, Reading, UK

15:00 SCI-POM1216 - Subseasonal predictability in negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation 1 1 1 Atsushi Minami , Yuhei Takaya , Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

15:00 SCI-POM1218 - CalWater 2 – precipitation, aerosols and pacific atmospheric rivers experiment Duane Waliser1, J. Ryan Spackman2,3, Marty Ralph4, Kim Prather4, Dan Cayan4,5, Paul DeMott6, Mike Dettinger4,5, Chris Fairall3, Ruby Leung7, Daniel Rosenfeld8, 1Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA, 2Science and Technology Corporation, Boulder, CO,USA 3NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA, 4Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California, 5U.S. Geological Survey, La Jolla, CA, USA, 6Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA, 7Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 8 Richland, WA, USA, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel

15:00 SCI-POM1221 - Seamless forecasting of sectoral application on a global scale Francesca Di Giuseppe1, Florian Pappenberger1, Fredrik Wetterhall1, Emanuel Dutra1, Konrad Bogner1, Lorenzo Alfieri1, Blazej Krzeminski1, 1 ECMWF,Reading,UK

15:00 SCI-POM1223 - Improving drought predictions for local decision-making using a new hybrid downscaling approach Debasish PaiMazumder1, Erin Towler1, Heather Lazrus1, Greg Holland1, 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1225 - Wind turbine power production forecasting and design methodology Jakob Süld1, Knut Helge Midtbø1, Jørn Kristiansen1, Adil Rasheed2, Trond Kvamsdal2, 1The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, 2SINTEF ICT

Applied Mathematics, Trondheim, Norway

134 Monday, August 18 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 SCI-POM1229 - Large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to weather- related hazards Miloslav Müller1,3, Marek Kaspar1, Anna Valerianova2, Eva Holtanova2,4, Lenka Crhova2,4, 1Institute of Atmospheric Physics ASCR, Prague, Czech Republic, 2Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague, Czech Republic, 3Charles University, Faculty of Science, Prague, Czech Republic, 4Charles University,

Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Prague, Czech Republic

15:00 SCI-POM1231 - Simulation of a freezing rain event over Northeastern China in February 2010 1 1 Xingyu Li , Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China

15:00 SCI-POM1233 - Nowcasting of North Foehn in Switzerland Simona Trefalt1,2, Daniele Nerini2, Matteo Buzzi2, 1University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, 2Federal Office for Climarology and Meteorology MeteoSwiss,

Locarno, Switzerland

15:00 SCI-POM1240 - Modelling the multiphase chemical processing of monoethanolamine from industrial CCS processes with COSMO-MUSCAT Ralf Wolke1, Andreas Tilgner1, Roland Schrodner1, Claus J. Neilsen2, Harmutt Hermann1, 1Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS), Leipzig, 2 Germany, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

15:00 SCI-POM1241 - Using synthetic satellite observations to evaluate the performance of PBL and cloud microphysical parameterization schemes Rebecca Cintineo1, Jason Otkin1,2, Ming Xue2, Fanyou Kong2, 1University of Wisconsin – Madison, WI, USA/ CIMSS, 2CAPS / University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA

15:00 SCI-POM1243 - The diagnosis of the hollow potential vorticity tower on the intensity change of Hurricane HanCheng Lu1, Wei Zhong1, 1Institutes of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA

University of Science and Technology, Jiangsu Nan Jing, China

15:00 SCI-POM1244 - Decomposition of planetary waves into standing and travelling components, with application to stratosphere-troposphere coupling 1 1 1 Oliver Watt-Meyer , Paul J. Kushner , University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada

15:00 UAS-POM3010 - Risk perception of environmental extreme events among Canadians: Socio-demographic characterization Alina Dumirescu1,2, Louise Lemyre1,2,3, Celine Pinsent2, Tim Dugas2, Daniel Krewski3, 1PhD Program in Population Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada, 2School of Psychology, Gap Santé Research Unit, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada, 3McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment,

Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa, ON, Canada

15:00 UAS-POM3012 - Comparative analysis of three snowfall processes in early 2014 in Hunan Province Hongwu Liu1, Jingjing Chen1, Zuxian Li1, Zhaoping Deng1, Lun Li1, 1Hunan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Changsha, Hunan, P. R. China

135 Monday, August 18 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 UAS-POM3013 - On the reliability of seasonal forecasts Antje Weisheimer1,2, Tim Palmer1,2, 1University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, 2ECMWF,

Reading, UK

15:00 UAS-POM3014 - Communicating confidence in weather forecasts to encourage probabilistic forecast use in decisions by grid operators Daniel Lee1, Isabel Alberts1, Vanessa Stauch1, 1German Weather Service,

Offenbach, Germany

15:00 UAS-POM3015 - Climatic variability in the Sub–Saharan region Maxi Mbidde Ssenyondo1, Baker Mukasa2, Rosemary Nabuma3, 1Global Initiative Uganda (GIU), Rakai, Uganda, 2Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda, 3 Millennium Environmental Health Agency (MEHA), Kampala, Uganda

15:00 UAS-POM3016 - Comparisons of meteorological variations observed at two mountain meteorological stations in Southeast China Zuxian Li1, Jianming Zhang2, Chengzhi Ye1, Ruping Mo3, 1Hunan Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Changsha, China, 2Zhuzhou Meteorological 3 Bureau,Zhuzhou, China, Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada

15:00 UAS-POM3017 - A theoretically guided exploration of people’s hurricane perceptions and response behaviors Julie Demuth1, Rebecca Morss2, Jeff Lazo2, Heather Lazrus2, Betty Morrow3, 1NCAR and CSU, Boulder, USA, 2NCAR, Boulder, USA, 3SocResearch, Miami,

USA

136 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 - 16:30 Poster Session Room 220 D-E

15:00 SCI-POT1001 - Sulfate and Black Carbon direct effect on the progress of east asian subtropical monsoon Bin Zhu1, Dongdong Wang1, Yan Cai2, 1Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China, 2Nanjing University of Posts and

Telecommunication, Nanjing, China

15:00 SCI-POT1006 - Mean climate of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and Arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions Bohua Huang1, Jieshun Zhu2, Lawrence Marx2, James Kinter III2, 1George Mason University, Fairfax, USA, 2Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosophere Studies,

Fairfax, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1012 - On the thermal roughness length in weather and climate models 1 1 1 Yihua Wu , Mike Ek , NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park,MD, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1014 - Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation and summer soil moisture in southeastern Arizona 1 1 1 Susan Stillman , Xubin Zeng , University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1024 - The importance of controlled land-surface forcing for extended-range high-resolution mesoscale simulations Syed Z Husain1, Leo Separovic1, David Fernig1, Wei Yu1, 1Environment

Canada, Dorval, QC Canada

15:00 SCI-POT1026 - A weather climate change impact study at extreme resolution (WISER) Alan Gadian1, Ralph Burton1, James Grives1, Alan Blyth1, Chris Collier1, Stephen Mobbs1, Greg Holland2, Cindy Bruyere2, James Done2, Jutta Thielen3, 1National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences (NCAS), Leeds, UK, 2NESL, 3 NCAR, Boulder, USA, EU Climate Risk Management Group, ISPRA, Italy

15:00 SCI-POT1027 - A climatic precursor towards anticipating major flood events in the Missouri River Basin S.Y. Wang1, Kirsti Hakala1, Bill Capehart2, Robert Gillies1, 1Utah Climate Center, Logan, UT, USA, 2South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid

City, SD, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1028 - Improved ensemble based weather forecasts for renewable energies Kristina Lundgren1, Zied Ben Bouallegue1, Richard Keane1, Tobias 1 1 Heppelmann , Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

15:00 SCI-POT1029 - The beach erosion processes caused by seasonal wind variations in Jeju Island, South Korea Byung-Gul Lee1, Changwook Lee2, Ae-Soo Suh3, 1Jeju National University, Jeju, South Korea, 2National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, South 3 Korea, Daejeon Regional Meteorological Administration, Daejeon, South Korea

137 Tuesday, August 19 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 SCI-POT1031 - Typhoon Haiyan: A post-analysis of its development, intensification and track Gerry Bagtasa1, Ronald Macatangay1, 1University of the Philippines, Institute of

Environmental Science & Meteorology, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines

15:00 SCI-POT1033 - The West African Monsoon System Predictability and Prediction Aida Diongue-Niang1, 1Agence Nationale de l'Aviation Civile et de la

Meteorologie, Dakar-Yoff, Senegal

15:00 SCI-POT1040 - GSI-based four dimensional ensemble-variational (4DEnsVar) data assimilation: formulation and real data experiments for NCEP GFS -‐ 1 1 1 Xuguang Wang , Ting Lei , University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1044 - Modelling of local length-scale dynamics and isotropizing deformations Olivier Pannekoucke1,2, Emanuele Emili1, Olivier Thual1,3, 1CERFACS, Toulouse, France, 2Météo France - CNRM, Toulouse, France, 3Université de

Toulouse, INPT, CNRS, IMFT, Toulouse, France

15:00 SCI-POT1048 - Impact of surface observation nudging on Typhoon Haiyan forecast over the Philippines Jay Samuel Combinido1, Gay Jane Perez1, 1University of the Philippines

Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines

15:00 SCI-POT1053 - Testing ECMWF vs. GFS profiles as input into fast CRTM for SST retrievals at NOAA Xingming Liang1, Alexander Ignatov2, 1NOAA/NESDIS & Colorado State 2 Univ./CIRA, College Park, USA, NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1056 - Software for monitoring pollutants emissions from aircraft Ludmila Meireles1, Carlo Oliveira1, 1Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de

Janeiro, Brazil

15:00 SCI-POT1059 - IASI blacklisting and quality control at KIAPS Su Jin Ha1, Hyoung-Wook Chun1, 1Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction

Systems, Seoul, Korea

15:00 SCI-POT1065 - The sensitivity of ground-based GPS PWV data on constrained variational data assimilation Eun-Hee Kim1, Hee-Choon Lee1, Kwang-Deuk Ahn1, Jong-Chul Ha1, Chun-Ho 1 1 Cho , National Institude of Meteorology Research, Jeju, Korea

15:00 SCI-POT1069 - Preliminary results with the MEOPAR/HREnKF data assimilation system Kao-Shen Chung1, Luc Fillion2, Seung-Jong Baek2, 1McGill University, Montreal, Canada, 2Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

138 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 SCI-POT1070 - Analysis and forecast impact of tropical cyclone observations with large observation innovations Christina Holt1, Istvan Szunyogh2, 1CIRES, Boulder, CO, USA, 2Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1073 - Pre-Processing and quality control of surface data for assimilation in KIAPS global NWP model Jung Hyo Chae1, 1Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul,

Korea

15:00 SCI-POT1077 - AIRS and Weather Prediction 1 1 Joao Teixeira , JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, CA, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1090 - The Evolution of the severe rainfall cells structure in the LL- MCS and lightning activity Zhang Yijun1, Wang Hongyan1, Yi Xiaoyuan1, 1Tianjin Meteorological

Observatory, Tianjin, China

15:00 SCI-POT1094 - Atmospheric boundary layer height estimation using combined microwave radiometer and lidar data Umar Saeed1, Jordi Tiana-Alsina1, Susanne Crewell2, Francesc Rocadenbosch1,3, 1Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), Remote Sensing Laboratory (RSLab), Department of Signal Theory and Communications (TSC), Barcelona, Spain, 2University of Cologne, Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology (IGMK), Köln, Germany, 3Institute for Space Studies of Catalonia

(IEEC), Barcelona, Spain

15:00 SCI-POT1096 - Aerosol and cloud microphysics retrieval using High Spectral Resolution Lidar Jothiram Vivekanandan1, Bruce Morley1, Scott Spuler1, Tammy Kepple1, 1 National Center For Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1098 - Nowcasting Hydrometeor-type using polarimetric radar data Mark Alliksaar1, George Isaac2, Peter Taylor2, 1Environment Canada, Toronto, 2 Canada, York University, Toronto, Canada

15:00 SCI-POT1119 - A comparison of IC-, multi-physics- and stochastic physics- based ensembles Jun Du1, Jun Li2, 1NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA, 2Wuhan Institute of

Heavy Rain, Wuhan, China

15:00 SCI-POT1121 - Latest developments to the UK ensemble forecasting system, MOGREPS-UK Susanna Hagelin1, Richard Swinbank1, Warren Tennant1, Christine Johnson1, Anne McCabe1, 1Met Office, Exeter, UK

15:00 SCI-POT1123 - The impact of forecast error growth on the medium-range predictability of a european cyclone William Lamberson1, Ryan Torn1, Lance Bosart1, 1University at Albany - SUNY,

Albany, New York, USA

139 Tuesday, August 19 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 SCI-POT1125 - The TIGGE LAM archive at ECMWF Richard Mládek1, Baudouin Raoult1, Manuel Fuentes1, David Richardson1, Shahram Najm1, Ervin Zsótér1, Florian Pappenberger1, Tiziana Paccagnella2, Richard Swinbank3, 1ECMWF, Reading, UK, 2ARPA-SIMC, Bologna, Italy, 3

Met Office, Exeter, UK

15:00 SCI-POT1127 - Surface perturbations in HarmonEPS Andrew Singleton1, Inger-Lise Frogner1, Ole Vignes1, 1MET Norway, Oslo,

Norway

15:00 SCI-POT1129 - γ-SREPS: AEMET New Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System Jose A. Garcia-Moya1, Carlos Santos1, Alfons Callado2, Pau Escriba2, Juan M. Sancho3, 1Spanish Agency of Meteorology, AEMET, Madrid, Spain, 2Spanish Agency of Meteorology, AEMET, Barcelona, Spain, 3Spanish Agency of

Meteorology, AEMET, Malaga, Spain

15:00 SCI-POT1131 - A hybrid, NWP-Analog ensemble Tony Eckel1, Luca Delle Monache2, Badrinath Nagarajan2, 1Microsoft Corporation, Bellevue, USA, 2National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder,

USA

15:00 SCI-POT1133 - Approaches of multi-dynamics ensemble prediction systems Malaquias Peña1, 1Environmental Modeling Center -NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College

Park, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1134 - Climatic impacts of a stochastic parameterization of air–sea fluxes 1 1 Paul Williams , University of Reading, Reading, UK

15:00 SCI-POT1136 - Calibration of the stochastic multicloud model using Bayesian Inference Michèle De La Chevrotière1, Boualem Khouider1, Andrew Majda2, 1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada, 2Department of Mathematics, Center for Atmosphere-Ocean Science, Courant

Institute, New-York, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1138 - Optimizing physical parameterization in COSMO-DE towards renewable energies Jonas von Schumann1, Carmen Köhler1, Andrea Steiner1, Bodo Ritter1, 1 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

15:00 SCI-POT1140 - Impact of horizontal resolution and turbulence parameterization on high-resolution simulations of deep convection Antoine Verrelle1, Didier Ricard1, Christine Lac1, 1CNRM-GAME (Météo-France

CNRS), Toulouse, France

15:00 SCI-POT1144 - The decay of tropical cyclone over the South China Sea offshore during summer Xiaoping Jiang1, Chuxia Lui1, 1Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine

Meteorology, Guangzhou,China

140 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 SCI-POT1148 - The role of interactions between multi-scale circulations on zonal wind variability associated with the MJO 1 1 1 Naoko Sakaeda , Paul Roundy , University at Albany, Albany, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1151 - Mineral dust transport towards Hurricane Helene (2006) Juliane Schwendike1,2, Sarah Jones1,3, Bernhard Vogel1, Heike Vogel1, 1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2Monash University, 3 Australia, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

15:00 SCI-POT1164 - The effect of temperature advection on atmospheric stratification in two sandstorm processes Xuefeng Meng1, Yonggang SUN1, Xueyi XUN1, Huimin YUAN1, Yinghua Hu1, 1Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot, China, 2Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot, China, 3Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot, China, 4Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional

Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot, China

15:00 SCI-POT1166 - A novel metric to assess the “extremeness” of cyclones Christian M. Grams1, Stephan Pfahl1, Heini Wernli1, 1Institute for Atmospheric

and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

15:00 SCI-POT1168 - The ENDGame dynamical core: impacts on extra-tropical variability and predictability David Walters1, Paul Earnshaw1, Sean Milton1, Marion Mittermaier1, Claudio Sanchez1, Adrian Semple1, Dan Suri1, Martin Willett1, Keith Williams1, Nigel 1 1 Wood , Met Office, Exeter, UK

15:00 SCI-POT1172 - Evaporative moisture sources of the diabatically produced parts of cyclones' PV towers Jana Campa1, Heini Wernli2, 1IMK KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2IAC ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

15:00 SCI-POT1176 - Impact of the inflow moisture on the evolution of a Warm Conveyor Belt Andreas Schäfler1, Florian Harnisch1,2, 1Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany, 2Hans-Ertel-Zentrum für Wetterforschung, Bereich Datenassimilation,

Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, Germany

15:00 SCI-POT1180 - Identification of extreme precipitation threat across midlatitude regions Robert Davies1, Robert Gillies1, Simon Wang1, 1Utah Climate Center, Logan,

UT, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1184 - Identifying U.S. Post THORPEX research initiatives Edmund Chang1, Zoltan Toth2, Malaquias Pena3, Sharanya Majumdar4, 1Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA, 2NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO, USA, 3NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, USA, 4University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1188 - Using self-organising maps to assess intra-seasonal predictability Christien Engelbrecht1, Willem Landman2, Francois Engelbrecht2, 1Agricultural Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa, 2Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa

141 Tuesday, August 19 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 SCI-POT1191 - Double ENSO signatures in the northern extratropical troposphere and stratosphere Ruping Mo1, Chris Doyle1, 1National Laboratory for Coastal and Mountain

Meteorology, Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada

15:00 SCI-POT1204 - Seasonal prediction of the Indonesian precipitation in the NCEP Climate Forecast System using WRFv3.5.1 Kadarsah Kadarsah1, Dodo Gunawan1, Jose Rizal1, 1The Indonesian Mett-

Office, Jakarta, Indonesia

15:00 SCI-POT1206 - Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity modulation by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) using extended MJO index 1 1 Philip Klotzbach , Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1210 - Extended-Range (~1-35 day) forecasts of convective variability for the North Australian Monsoon region Matthew Wheeler1, Wasyl Drosdowsky1, 1Centre for Australian Weather and

Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia

15:00 SCI-POT1212 - Prediction of tropical cyclone frequency in the Global Seasonal Forecasting system, Korea Yu-Kyung Hyun1, Hyun-Suk Kang1, Young-Hwa Byun1, ChunHo Cho1, Jong 1 1 Ho Lee , National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Korea

15:00 SCI-POT1215 - The new JMA's one-month ensemble prediction system and its performance Atsushi Minami1, Masayuki Hirai1, Kengo Miyaoka1, Hiroyuki Sugimoto1, Ryoji Nagasawa1, Hitoshi Sato1, Akihiko Shinpo1, Yuhei Takaya1, Satoko 1 1 1 Matsueda , Chihiro Matsukawa , Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

15:00 SCI-POT1220 - The Madden-Julian Oscillation and severe convective storm hazards in the U.S. Bradford Barrett1, 1Oceanography Department, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, USA

15:00 SCI-POT1230 - Synoptic-scale patterns producing cold spells in Central Europe Marek Kaspar1, Miloslav Müller1,2, Anna Valerianova3, 1Institute of Atmospheric Physics ASCR, Prague, Czech Republic, 2Charles University, Faculty of Science, Prague, Czech Republic, 3Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague, Czech

Republic

15:00 SCI-POT1232 - Retrieving wind gust information from radar data in Switzerland Simona Trefalt1,2, Olivia Romppainen-Martius1, Alessandro Hering2, 1University 2 of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, MeteoSwiss, Locarno, Switzerland

15:00 SCI-POT1235 - Towards a new chain of models to forecast snow conditions in the French mountains Vincent Vionnet1, Ingrid Dombrowski-Etchevers1, Ludovic Auger2, Adrien Colomb3, Leo Pfitzner3, Matthieu Lafaysse1, Luc Charrois1, Marie Dumont1, 1Météo France/CNRS, CNRM-GAME, UMR–3589, CEN, Grenoble, France, 2Météo France/CNRS, CNRM-GAME, UMR–3589, Toulouse, France, 3Météo France, ENM, Toulouse, France

142 Tuesday, August 19 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 SCI-POT1237 - Analysis of volcanic eruption of Mt. Sinabung in Indonesia using InSAR and landslide model Chang-Wook Lee1, Minji Cho1, Eui-Hong Hwang1, 1National Institute of

Meteorological Research, Jeju-do, Korea

15:00 SCI-POT1238 - Application of a fine-scale Aviation Model for Near-term Predictions at the Hong Kong International Airport 1 1 Kai Kwong Hon , Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China

15:00 UAS-POT3018 - Weather service chain analysis - appraising net socioeconomic benefits of (improvements in) weather services Adriaan Perrels1, Väinö Nurmi1, Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola1, Atte Harjanne1, 1 Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki, Finland

15:00 UAS-POT3019 - Distribution and sources of respirable particulate matter in central India S. Ramteke1, K.S. Patel2, S.G. Agrawal3, 1School of Studies in Environmental Science, Pt. Ravishankar Shukla University, Raipur, India, 2School of Studies in Chemistry, Pt. Ravishankar Shukla University, Raipur, India, 3Analytical Chemistry

Section, CSIR-National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi, India

15:00 UAS-POT3021 - Met Office Global Hazard Map – a GIS Web Map Service for forecasting high-impact weather 1 1 1 Helen Titley , Joanne Robbins , Met Office, Exeter, UK

15:00 UAS-POT3022 - The implementation on characteristics and formation mechanism of weather disasters in Yunnan province Ademola Olusegun Adekunle1, 1Ministry of Environment and Sanitation Agency,

Osogbo,Nigeria

15:00 UAS-POT3023 - Mobile phone – a device for making the atmosphere and hydrosphere measurements Lukasz Legutko1, Aleksander Plygawko1, 1Institute of Meteorology and Water

Management, Warsaw, Poland

15:00 UAS-POT3024 - Future role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and 'the Forecaster': The Nigerian situation Anthony Anuforom1, Juliana Ukeje1, Ifeanyi Nnodu1, Imoh Obioh2, Ernest 1 1 2 Afiesimama , NiMet, Abuja, Nigeria, ARIAL-CERD, OAU, Ile-Ife, Nigeria

15:00 UAS-POT3025 - Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) open data implementation utilizing Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards Tarja Riihisaari1, Mikko Visa1, Roope Tervo1, Mikko Rauhala1, 1Finnish

Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland

15:00 UAS-POT3026 - The Meteorological Service of Canada's Datamart: open data, open applications 1 1 1 Yves Pelletier , Miguel Tremblay , Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

143 Wednesday, August 20 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 - 16:30

Poster Session Room 220 D-E

15:00 SCI-POW1000 - Projection of the future wave climate changes over the western North Pacific Jong Suk Park1, KiRyong Kang2, Hyun-Suk Kang1, Young-Hwa Kim3, 1National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Republic of Korea, 2National Typhoon Center/KMA, Jeju, Republic of Korea, 3Numerical Data Application Division/KMA,

Seoul, Republic of Korea

15:00 SCI-POW1002 - Marine cloud brightening: regional applications to the weakening of hurricanes and reduction in coral bleaching Alan Gadian1, Rachel Hauser2,3, Joan Kleypas2, John Latham2,4, Ben Parkes5, Stephen Salter6, 1National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Leeds, UK, 2National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, US, 3ESPCSTPR, University of Colorado, US, 4SEAS, Manchester, UK, 5ICAS, Leeds, UK, 6School of

Engineering, Edinburgh, UK

15:00 SCI-POW1013 - Quantitative precipitation estimation by combining observations and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model with 3DVAR Thomas Schwitalla1, Hans-Stefan Bauer1, Josipa Milovac1, Volker Wulfmeyer1, Atoossa Bakhshaii-Shahrbabaki1, Uwe Ehret2, Malte Neuper1, 1University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany, 2Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,

Karlsruhe, Germany

15:00 SCI-POW1015 - Possible effect of land and atmosphere interaction over Mongolia Purevjav Gomboluudev1, Luvsan Natsagdorj1, Duger Ulam-Orgikh2, 1Institute of Meteorology,Hydrology and Environment, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 2National

University, Mongolia

15:00 SCI-POW1030 - The use of the GPI to seed TC-like Vortexes on GEFS Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento1, Malaquias Peña2, Victor Magaña1, 1Instituto de Geografia UNAM, Mexico DF, Mexico, 2Environmental Modeling Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA

15:00 SCI-POW1032 - Tracking monsoon low pressure systems in reanalysis and climate model simulations: A new methodology Praveen Veluthedathekuzhiyil1, Sandeep Sukumaran1, Ajaya Mohan 1 1 Ravindran , New York University Abu Dhabi, UAE

15:00 SCI-POW1034 - The DTC’s Involvement with the HWRF: An Overview of community support, testing and evaluation Christina Holt1, Ligia R. Bernardet1, Mr Biswas1, Timothy Brown1, Don Stark1, Laurie Carson1, Vijay Tallapragada2, Sam Trahan2, 1Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO, USA, 2Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD,

USA

144 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 SCI-POW1035 - The validation of high resolution precipitation reanalyses over Europe within EURO4M project

1 1 1 2 Cornel Soci , Mathieu Coustau-Guilhou , Eric Bazile , Tomas Landelius , Eric 1 1 1 2 15:00 - 16:30 Martin , François Besson , Météo-France, Toulouse, France, Swedish

Poster Session Room 220 D-E Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden

15:00 SCI-POW1000 - Projection of the future wave climate changes over the 15:00 SCI-POW1036 - Artificial inhomogeneities in the Twentieth Century western North Pacific Reanalysis 1 2 1 3 1 Jong Suk Park , KiRyong Kang , Hyun-Suk Kang , Young-Hwa Kim , National Craig Ferguson1, Gabriele Villarini2, 1University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY, 2 2 Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Republic of Korea, National Typhoon USA, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA 3 Center/KMA, Jeju, Republic of Korea, Numerical Data Application Division/KMA,

Seoul, Republic of Korea 15:00 SCI-POW1037 - Coupled hindcast shocks and drifts following uncoupled

initialisation 15:00 SCI-POW1002 - Marine cloud brightening: regional applications to the David Mulholland1, Keith Haines1, 1University of Reading, Reading, UK weakening of hurricanes and reduction in coral bleaching Alan Gadian1, Rachel Hauser2,3, Joan Kleypas2, John Latham2,4, Ben Parkes5, 6 1 2 15:00 SCI-POW1041 - Initial condition estimation for convective scales using the Stephen Salter , National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Leeds, UK, National 3 self-breeding method Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, US, ESPCSTPR, University of 1,2 1,3 3 1 4 5 6 Jan Keller , Liselotte Bach , Andreas Hense , Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Colorado, US, SEAS, Manchester, UK, ICAS, Leeds, UK, School of Research, Climate Monitoring Branch, Bonn, Germany, 2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Engineering, Edinburgh, UK 3 Offenbach, Germany, University of Bonn, Germany

15:00 SCI-POW1013 - Quantitative precipitation estimation by combining 15:00 SCI-POW1045 - Inferring on time scale in climate and vegetation dynamic observations and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model with analysis: an entropy-based approach 3DVAR 1 1 1 1 1 1 Clement Sohoulande , Vijay Singh , Biological & Agricultural Engineering Thomas Schwitalla , Hans-Stefan Bauer , Josipa Milovac , Volker Dept,Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA Wulfmeyer1, Atoossa Bakhshaii-Shahrbabaki1, Uwe Ehret2, Malte Neuper1, 1 2 University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 15:00 SCI-POW1049 - Preliminary investigations on high resolution land data Karlsruhe, Germany assimilation over CONUS region Jesse Meng1, Youlong Xia1, Jiarui Dong1, Paul Dirmeyer2, Michael Ek3, 15:00 SCI-POW1015 - Possible effect of land and atmosphere interaction over 3 1 2 Roshan Shrestha , IMSG / EMC, NCEP, College Park, MD, USA, Georgee Mongolia 3 1 1 2 1 Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA, EMC, NCEP, College Park, MD, USA Purevjav Gomboluudev , Luvsan Natsagdorj , Duger Ulam-Orgikh , Institute 2 of Meteorology,Hydrology and Environment, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, National - University, Mongolia 15:00 SCI-POW1051 Impact of Accounting for Aerosols in GEOS 3D-Var 1,2 1 3 1 1 Jong Kim , Arlindo da Silva , Dirceul Herdies , Ricardo Ricardo , Global Modeling and Assimilation Office NASA, Greenbelt, USA, 2Science Systems 15:00 SCI-POW1030 - The use of the GPI to seed TC-like Vortexes on GEFS 3 1 2 1 1 anplications, Inc, Lanham, USA, Centro de Previsao do Tempo e Estudos Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento , Malaquias Peña , Victor Magaña , Instituto Climáticos, CPTEC, Brazil de Geografia UNAM, Mexico DF, Mexico, 2Environmental Modeling Center

NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA 15:00 SCI-POW1054 - IASI static bias correction at KIAPS observation processing system 15:00 SCI-POW1032 - Tracking monsoon low pressure systems in reanalysis and 1 1 1 Hyoung-Wook Chun , Su Jin Ha , KIAPS, Seoul, Korea climate model simulations: A new methodology 1 1 Praveen Veluthedathekuzhiyil , Sandeep Sukumaran , Ajaya Mohan 1 1 - Ravindran , New York University Abu Dhabi, UAE 15:00 SCI-POW1057 Correcting evapotranspiration using Eddy Covariance Method over the Korean Peninsula Hyedeuk Bae1, Heesook Ji1, Yoon-Jin Lim1, Kyung-Yeub Nam1, Byoung-Choel 15:00 SCI-POW1034 - The DTC’s Involvement with the HWRF: An Overview of 1 1 Choi , NIMR,, Seogwipo-si, Rep. of Korea community support, testing and evaluation 1 1 1 1 1 Christina Holt , Ligia R. Bernardet , Mr Biswas , Timothy Brown , Don Stark , Laurie Carson1, Vijay Tallapragada2, Sam Trahan2, 1Developmental Testbed 15:00 SCI-POW1063 - Evaluation of Vaisala RS92 radiosonde water vapor dry bias Center, Boulder, CO, USA, 2Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, correction algorithms 1 2 1 USA Andrew M. Dzambo , David D. Turner , University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, 2 USA, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, USA

145 Wednesday, August 20 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 SCI-POW1078 - Testing and evaluation of the GSI-Hybrid Data Assimilation 15:00 SCI-POW1122 - Reframe NCEP GEFS Initialization 1 2 2 for tropical cyclone forecasts at the DTC Xiaqiong Zhou , Yuejian Zhu , Dingchen Hou , 1IMSG in EMC/NWS/NOAA, 1 1 2,3 2,4 1 2 Hui Shao , Chunhua Zhou , Ligia Bernadet , Isidora Jankov , National College Park, MD, USA, EMC/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA Centers for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA, 2NOAA Earth System 3 Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA, University of Colorado CIRES, Boulder, 15:00 SCI-POW1126 - PEARP, the Météo-France ensemble prediction system 4 1 1 2 1 CO, USA, Colorado State University CIRA, Fort Collins, CO, USA Carole Labadie , Pierrick Cebron , Laurent Descamps , Eric Bazile , Alain 1 1 2 Joly , Météo-France, Toulouse, France, Météo-France, Paris, France 15:00 SCI-POW1081 - Eddy statistics and their spatio-temporal variability in the

Bay of Bengal from satellite altimetry 1 1 1 15:00 SCI-POW1128 - Development of a Météo-France ensemble reforecast dataset Sumit Dandapat , Arun Chakraborty , Indian Institute of Technology, Marie Boisserie1, Philippe Arbogast1, Bertrand Decharme1, 1CNRM/Météo- Kharagpur, India France

15:00 SCI-POW1082 - Trends of the sea surface temperature and height in the 15:00 SCI-POW1130 - Early warning products for severe weather events using South Atlantic Ocean 1 1 2 1 operational medium-range ensemble forecasts Isabel Silveira , Luciano Pezzi , Ronald Souza , National Institute for Space 1 2 1 2 Mio Matsueda , Tetsuo Nakazawa , Department of Physics, University of Research , São José dos Campos, Brazil, Southern Regional Center , Santa 2 Oxford, Oxford, UK, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland Maria, Brazil

15:00 SCI-POW1132 - Consequences of centering an ensemble 15:00 SCI-POW1114 - Predicting South Asian Monsoon variations using optimum Åke Johansson1, 1Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, initialization technique 1 1 Sweden Siraj ul Islam , University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, Canada

15:00 SCI-POW1135 - Sensitivity to CMT and entrainment/detrainment in the 15:00 SCI-POW1115 - Modeling of Sea Ice: Non-linearity, numerics and convective schemes of the Canadian NWP model convergence at high resolution 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 1 Paul Vaillancourt , Anne-Marie Leduc , Ayrton Zadra , Stéphane Bélair , Jean-Pierre Auclair , Harold Ritchie , Jean-François Lemieux , Department of 1Meteorological Research Division, Montreal, Canada, 2Canadian Meteorological Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada, 2Meteorological Research 3 Center, Montreal, Canada Division, Environment Canada, Dartmouth, Canada, Meteorological Research

Division, Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada - 15:00 SCI-POW1137 A sensitivity study on the effects of entrainment and detrainment in moist convection 15:00 SCI-POW1116 - Recent developments and operational upgrade of JMA Ji-Young Han1, Emilia Kyung Jin1, 1Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Global Spectral Model 1 1 Systems, Seoul, Korea Hitoshi Yonehara , Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

15:00 SCI-POW1139 - Introduction of a non-orographic gravity wave forcing 15:00 SCI-POW1117 - The 3D global semi-Lagrangian atmospheric model on the parameterization to the JMA Global Spectral Model reduced lat-lon grid 1 1 1,2 1 1,2 1 Takafumi Kanehama , Japan Meteorological Agency,Tokyo, Japan Mikhail Tolstykh , Rostislav Fadeev , Vladimir Shashkin , Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS, Moscow, Russia, 2Hydrometcentre of Russia, 15:00 SCI-POW1141 - Development of the boundary layer parameterization module Moscow, Russia in KIAPS-GM 1 1 1 1 1 Eun-Hee Lee , Kyoungmi Cho , Kyung-Hee Seol , Emilia Kyung Jin , Korea 15:00 SCI-POW1118 - Verification on surface temperature parameter of weather Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, Korea research and forecasting model - environment modeling system 1 1 1 Thahir Daniel Hutapea , Wido Hanggoro , M. Najib Habibie , Roni 1 1 15:00 SCI-POW1142 - Boundary layer parametrization in Environment Canada's Kurniawan , Indonesia Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency, NWP models: lessons learned from three GASS experiments Jakarta, Indonesia 1 1 Ayrton Zadra , Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

15:00 SCI-POW1120 - Analysis of tropical high impact weather events using TIGGE - data 15:00 SCI-POW1147 Data assimilation experiments of Myanmar cyclone Nargis Susanna Hopsch1, Sarah C Jones2, Julia H Keller2, 1Institute for Meteorology based on NHM-LETKF Le Duc1,2, Tohru Kuroda1,2, Kazuo Saito2,1, Tadashi Fujita3, 1Japan Agency for and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2 2 Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, Meteorological Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany 3 Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

146 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 SCI-POW1122 - Reframe NCEP GEFS Initialization Xiaqiong Zhou1, Yuejian Zhu2, Dingchen Hou2, 1IMSG in EMC/NWS/NOAA, 2 College Park, MD, USA, EMC/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD, USA

15:00 SCI-POW1126 - PEARP, the Météo-France ensemble prediction system Carole Labadie1, Pierrick Cebron1, Laurent Descamps2, Eric Bazile1, Alain 1 1 2 Joly , Météo-France, Toulouse, France, Météo-France, Paris, France

15:00 SCI-POW1128 - Development of a Météo-France ensemble reforecast dataset Marie Boisserie1, Philippe Arbogast1, Bertrand Decharme1, 1CNRM/Météo-

France

15:00 SCI-POW1130 - Early warning products for severe weather events using operational medium-range ensemble forecasts Mio Matsueda1, Tetsuo Nakazawa2, 1Department of Physics, University of 2 Oxford, Oxford, UK, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

15:00 SCI-POW1132 - Consequences of centering an ensemble Åke Johansson1, 1Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping,

Sweden

15:00 SCI-POW1135 - Sensitivity to CMT and entrainment/detrainment in the convective schemes of the Canadian NWP model Paul Vaillancourt1, Anne-Marie Leduc2, Ayrton Zadra1, Stéphane Bélair1, 1Meteorological Research Division, Montreal, Canada, 2Canadian Meteorological

Center, Montreal, Canada

15:00 SCI-POW1137 - A sensitivity study on the effects of entrainment and detrainment in moist convection Ji-Young Han1, Emilia Kyung Jin1, 1Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction

Systems, Seoul, Korea

15:00 SCI-POW1139 - Introduction of a non-orographic gravity wave forcing parameterization to the JMA Global Spectral Model 1 1 Takafumi Kanehama , Japan Meteorological Agency,Tokyo, Japan

15:00 SCI-POW1141 - Development of the boundary layer parameterization module in KIAPS-GM Eun-Hee Lee1, Kyoungmi Cho1, Kyung-Hee Seol1, Emilia Kyung Jin1, 1Korea

Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, Korea

15:00 SCI-POW1142 - Boundary layer parametrization in Environment Canada's NWP models: lessons learned from three GASS experiments 1 1 Ayrton Zadra , Environment Canada, Dorval, Canada

15:00 SCI-POW1147 - Data assimilation experiments of Myanmar cyclone Nargis based on NHM-LETKF Le Duc1,2, Tohru Kuroda1,2, Kazuo Saito2,1, Tadashi Fujita3, 1Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan, 2Meteorological 3 Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan

147 Wednesday, August 20 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 SCI-POW1153 - Resolving multiscale processes in tropical cyclogenesis using the parallel EEMD Yuling Wu1, Bo-Wen Shen2, Samson Cheung3, Jui-Lin Li4, 1University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, USA, 2University of Maryland, College Park, USA, 3NASA Ames Research Center, USA, 4Jet Propulsion Laboratory/NASA, Cal

Tech, USA

15:00 SCI-POW1155 - A multi-scale model for the Intraseasonal Impact of the Diurnal Cycle of Convection Qiu Yang1, Andrew Majda1, 1Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Center

for Atmosphere-Ocean Science, New York University, New York, USA

15:00 SCI-POW1156 - Application of MJO simulation diagnostics to CMIP5 climate models Min-Seop Ahn1, In-Sik Kang1, Daehyun Kim2, WGNE MJO Task Force 3, 1Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, 2University of Washington, Seattle, WA,

USA

15:00 SCI-POW1157 - Intraseasonal asymmetric events in the skeleton model with seasonal cycle Sulian Thual1, Andrew J. Majda1, Samuel N. Stechmann2, 1Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY, USA, 2University of Wisconsin-Madison,

Madison, WI, USA

15:00 SCI-POW1158 - Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the NCAR CESM Coupled Data Assimilation System Abhishek Chatterjee1, Jeffrey Anderson1, Mitchell Moncrieff1, Richard Neale1, Nancy Collins1, Gokhan Danabasoglu1, Timothy Hoar1, Alicia Karspeck1, Kevin Raeder1, Joseph Tribbia1, 1National Center for Atmospheric Research,

Boulder, USA

15:00 SCI-POW1159 - Object-based verification of tropical precipitation forecasts during the YOTC period Julian Quinting1, Marlon Maranan1, Julia Keller2, Sarah Jones2, 1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach,

Germany

15:00 SCI-POW1160 – Relation between mesoscale convective system life cycles and extreme rainfall signatures obtained by TRMM Luciano Vidal1, Paola Salio2, Edward J. Zipser3, Chuntao Liu3, 1National Meteorological Service - CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2CIMA-CONICET- UBA / DCAO UBA-FCEN / UMI3351-CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 3Department of Atmospheric Sciences - University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA

15:00 SCI-POW1161 - Orographic flow over an active volcano Alexandros-Panagiotis Poulidis1, Ian Renfrew1, Adrian Matthews1, 1UEA,

Norwich, UK

15:00 SCI-POW1163 - Rainfall runoff modelling for flood forecasting: A case study on West Rapti Watershed 1 1 Rocky Talchabhadel , IOE, Pulchowk, Nepal

148 Wednesday, August 20 Palais des congrès, Montréal, Canada POSTERS

15:00 SCI-POW1169 - Mechanisms causing structural changes during the extratropical transition of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008): a model study Hilke S. Lentink1, Sarah C. Jones2, 1Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2Deutscher

Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

15:00 SCI-POW1173 - Moisture transport between Atlantic and Mediterranean regions leading to extreme precipitation and flooding event 1 1 1 Jana Campa , Ulrich Corsmeier , IMK KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany

15:00 SCI-POW1177 - The role of warm conveyor belts for the intensification of extratropical cyclones Hanin Binder1, Maxi Boettcher1, Hanna Joos1, Heini Wernli1, 1ETH, Zurich,

Switzerland

15:00 SCI-POW1181 - The ET of Typhoon Choi-Wan (2009) and its role in high impact weather events Julia H. Keller1, Christian C.M. Grams2, 1German Meteorological Service, Offenbach, Germany, 2Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich,

Switzerland

15:00 SCI-POW1187 - The influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on extreme weather events Yuhei Takaya1, Satoko Matsueda1, 1Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo,

Japan

15:00 SCI-POW1189 - Cyclogenesis downstream of extratropical transition analyzed by Q-vector partitioning based on flow geometry Michael Riemer1, Marlene Baumgart1, Sven Eiermann1, 1Johannes Gutenberg-

Universität, Mainz, Germany

15:00 SCI-POW1208 - Prediction of the African Monsoon in the ECMWF high- resolution coupled model 1 1 1 Rondrotiana Barimalala , Benjamin Cash , COLA, Fairfax, VA, USA

15:00 SCI-POW1214 - Impact of a dynamic sea-ice model on the ECMWF medium to monthly range forecasts Sarah Keeley1, Frederic Vitart1, Magdalena Balmaseda1, Kristian Mogensen1, 1 1 1 Hao Zuo , Peter Janssen , ECMWF, Reading, UK

15:00 SCI-POW1217 - Extending NCEP GEFS from 16 days to 30 days Yuejian Zhu1, Malaquias Pena1, Wanqiu Wang2, 1EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, 2 College Park, MD, USA, CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College park, MD, USA

15:00 SCI-POW1219 - The Prediction skill of Madden-Julian Oscillations in coupled and uncoupled models forecasts Waqar Younas1, Youmin Tang, 1University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, Canada, 2University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC,

Canada

15:00 SCI-POW1239 - Spectral analysis of salt clouds originated at Mar Chiquita lake using remote sensing Diana M. Rodriguez1, Silvana Bolzi1, Ines Velasco2, Mónica Marino1, 1National Meteorological Service, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2Science Department of

Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina

149 Wednesday, August 20 POSTERS World Weather Open Science 2014

15:00 SCI-POW1242 - Assimilation of satellite and radar observations in a convection-resolving observing system simulation experiment Rebecca Cintineo1, Jason Otkin1, Thomas Jones2, Steven Koch3, Louis Wicker3, David Stensrud3, 1University of Wisconsin - Madison / CIMSS, 2 3 University of Oklahoma / CIMMS, NOAA / NSSL

15:00 UAS-POW3027 - A key client case study: What caused the delay on a well forecast event Cindy Yu1, Matt MacDonald1, Alyssa Charbonneau1, 1Environment Canada,

Vancouver, Canada

15:00 UAS-POW3028 - Environmental implication of rainfall hazards in Nigeria 1 1 Sunday Efe , Delta State University, Abraka, Nigeria

15:00 UAS-POW3029 - Trends of natural disasters and morbidities in Uganda Skyler Jayden Dembe1, Paul William Kayemba2, Richard Musoke3, 1Crusade for Environmental Awareness Agency (CEAA), Masaka, Uganda, 2Rural-Urban Environmental Initiative (RAEI), Kyotera,Uganda, 3Makarere University, Kampala,

Uganda

15:00 UAS-POW3030 - The October 1891 Cartago floods (Costa Rica) using historical documents and 20CR project data Jorge A. Amador1, Maria J. Anderson2, Blanca Calderon2, 1School of Physics and Center for Geophysical Research, University of Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica, 2Center for Geophysical Research, University of Costa Rica, San Jose,

Costa Rica

15:00 UAS-POW3031 - Drought impacts in Peru, a latent risk Luis Orihuela Pinto1, Laura Paccini Peña1, 1Universidad Nacional Agraria la

Molina, Lima, Peru

15:00 UAS-POW3032 - Impact of climate change and monitoring analysis on water resources in SADC countries: critical review Joseph Kapuku Bwapwa1, Adesoji Jaiyeola1, 1Mangosuthu University of

Technology, Durban, South Africa

15:00 UAS-POW3033 - Vancouver Island school-based weather station network 1 1 1 Edward Wiebe , Andrew Weaver , University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada

16:30 - 18:30 Poster Removal Room 220 D-E

150 Notes ______

______

______Space optics for improved weather sounding and imaging

ABB Inc. (Canada) designs, manufactures, and markets high-performance optical sensors for industrial processes, defense and security, space, and environmental markets. ABB is the largest Canadian supplier of space-based optical sensors for atmospheric and weather applications. For more than 40 years, the company continues to set the standards for optical Remote Sensing technologies.

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ABB Analytical Measurement Phone: +1 418-877-2944 Email: [email protected] www.abb.com/analytical

4625 space 7,5x 10.indd 1 2014-06-13 10:12

World Weather Open Science Conference 2014 August 16-21, 2014 Montréal, Canada

Conférence scientifique publique mondiale sur la météorologie 2014 16 au 21 août 2014 Montréal, Canada

LEVEL 5 / NIVEAU 5

Plenaries Plénières

525ab Media Room / Salle des médias Internet 523ab Speaker Ready Room / Salle de préparation des conférenciers Wifi (1.5 Mbps) will be available throughout the Palais des congrès de Montréal providing basic 521ab Volunteer Room / Salle des bénévoles internet access to WWOSC 2014 attendees. / L’Internet sans fil (1.5 Mbps) sera disponible dans le Palais des congrès de Montréal offrant un accès Internet de base pour les participants à WWOSC 2014. To connect / Pour vous connecter : SSID – Network / Réseau : wwosc2014 Passcode / Code d’accès : mywwosc2014