The Interaction Between the Outflow of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) and the Midlatitude Jet During T-Parc
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Disaster Immunity” – a New Concept for Adaptation to Disaster Hazard Intensification
Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE, Vol.56, 2012, February “DISASTER IMMUNITY” – A NEW CONCEPT FOR ADAPTATION TO DISASTER HAZARD INTENSIFICATION Toshimitsu KOMATSU1 and Hideo OSHIKAWA2 1Fellow Member of JSCE, Dr. of Eng., Professor, Dept. of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Kyushu University (744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan) 2 Member of JSCE, Dr. of Eng., Assistant Professor, Dept. of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Kyushu University (744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan) We introduce a new “disaster immunity” concept in place of conventional “disaster management capacity” that reflects dynamic transitions in society and nature more accurately than the fixed conventional “disaster management capacity” concept. Because awareness deeply impacts on disaster management, the new concept captures disaster dynamics and could play an important role in disaster reduction. Since global warming involves disaster hazard intensification, it is not enough to simply strengthen existing measures. As an example, Japan responds to particular temperate zone patterns through long-term disaster management infrastructures. Society and nature in Japan have disaster management capacity matching typical temperate zone hazards. A rapid transition to subtropical climate patterns within the next several decades to a century is expected to generate large gaps between disaster hazards and disaster management capacity of human society and nature, leading to an imbalance. Under unstable conditions, society and nature have become increasingly vulnerable due to decreased “immunity.” Increasing “disaster immunity” is thus an urgent and important issue. Key Words : Disaster immunity, global warming, imbalanced state, unexpected disaster, dry dam 1. INTRODUCTION management capacity” that reflects dynamic transitions in society and nature more accurately Recent years have seen an increase in disaster than the fixed conventional “disaster management hazards such as intensified torrential rains, droughts capacity” concept. -
Wang, M., M. Xue, and K. Zhao (2016), September 2008
PUBLICATIONS Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres RESEARCH ARTICLE The impact of T-TREC-retrieved wind and radial 10.1002/2015JD024001 velocity data assimilation using EnKF Key Points: and effects of assimilation window • T-TREC-retrieved wind and radial velocity data are assimilated using an on the analysis and prediction ensemble Kalman filter • The relative impacts of two data sets of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) on analysis and prediction changes with assimilation windows Mingjun Wang1,2, Ming Xue1,2,3, and Kun Zhao1 • The combination of retrieved wind and radial velocity produces better 1Key Laboratory for Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, analyses and forecasts China, 2Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, Norman, Oklahoma, USA, 3School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA Correspondence to: M. Xue, Abstract This study examines the relative impact of assimilating T-TREC-retrieved winds (VTREC)versusradial [email protected] velocity (Vr) on the analysis and forecast of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The VTREC and Vr data at 30 min intervals are assimilated into the ARPS model at 3 km grid spacing over four different Citation: assimilation windows that cover, respectively, 0000–0200, 0200–0400, 0400–0600, and 0000–0600 UTC, 28 Wang, M., M. Xue, and K. Zhao (2016), September 2008. The assimilation of VTREC data produces better analyses of the typhoon structure and intensity The impact of T-TREC-retrieved wind and radial velocity data assimilation than the assimilation of Vr data during the earlier assimilation windows, but during the later assimilation using EnKF and effects of assimilation windows when the coverage of Vr data on the typhoon from four Doppler radars is much improved, the window on the analysis and prediction assimilation of V outperforms V data. -
The Influence of Assimilating Dropsonde Data on Typhoon Track
908 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 139 The Influence of Assimilating Dropsonde Data on Typhoon Track and Midlatitude Forecasts MARTIN WEISSMANN,* FLORIAN HARNISCH,* CHUN-CHIEH WU,1 PO-HSIUNG LIN,1 YOICHIRO OHTA,# KOJI YAMASHITA,# YEON-HEE KIM,@ EUN-HEE JEON,@ TETSUO NAKAZAWA,& AND SIM ABERSON** * Deutsches Zentrum fu¨r Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut fu¨r Physik der Atmospha¨re, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany 1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan # Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan @ National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Agency, Seoul, South Korea & Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan ** NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 9 February 2010, in final form 21 April 2010) ABSTRACT A unique dataset of targeted dropsonde observations was collected during The Observing System Re- search and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in the autumn of 2008. The campaign was supplemented by an enhancement of the operational Dropsonde Ob- servations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) program. For the first time, up to four different aircraft were available for typhoon observations and over 1500 additional soundings were collected. This study investigates the influence of assimilating additional observations during the two major typhoon events of T-PARC on the typhoon track forecast by the global models of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Additionally, the influence of T-PARC observations on ECMWF midlatitude forecasts is investigated. All models show an improving tendency of typhoon track forecasts, but the degree of improvement varied from about 20% to 40% in NCEP and WRF to a comparably low influence in ECMWF and JMA. -
Science Discussion Started: 22 October 2018 C Author(S) 2018
Discussions Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2018-127 Earth System Manuscript under review for journal Earth Syst. Sci. Data Science Discussion started: 22 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. Open Access Open Data 1 Field Investigations of Coastal Sea Surface Temperature Drop 2 after Typhoon Passages 3 Dong-Jiing Doong [1]* Jen-Ping Peng [2] Alexander V. Babanin [3] 4 [1] Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 5 Taiwan 6 [2] Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemuende (IOW), Rostock, Germany 7 [3] Department of Infrastructure Engineering, Melbourne School of Engineering, University of 8 Melbourne, Australia 9 ---- 10 *Corresponding author: 11 Dong-Jiing Doong 12 Email: [email protected] 13 Tel: +886 6 2757575 ext 63253 14 Add: 1, University Rd., Tainan 70101, Taiwan 15 Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University 16 -1 Discussions Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2018-127 Earth System Manuscript under review for journal Earth Syst. Sci. Data Science Discussion started: 22 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. Open Access Open Data 1 Abstract 2 Sea surface temperature (SST) variability affects marine ecosystems, fisheries, ocean primary 3 productivity, and human activities and is the primary influence on typhoon intensity. SST drops 4 of a few degrees in the open ocean after typhoon passages have been widely documented; 5 however, few studies have focused on coastal SST variability. The purpose of this study is to 6 determine typhoon-induced SST drops in the near-coastal area (within 1 km of the coast) and 7 understand the possible mechanism. -
A Vortex Relocation Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Initialization in Advanced Research WRF
3298 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 A Vortex Relocation Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Initialization in Advanced Research WRF LING-FENG HSIAO Central Weather Bureau, and Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, Taipei, Taiwan CHI-SANN LIOU Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California TIEN-CHIANG YEH Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan YONG-RUN GUO National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado DER-SONG CHEN,KANG-NING HUANG,CHUEN-TEYR TERNG, AND JEN-HER CHEN Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan (Manuscript received 6 November 2009, in final form 23 February 2010) ABSTRACT This paper introduces a relocation scheme for tropical cyclone (TC) initialization in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model and demonstrates its application to 70 forecasts of Ty- phoons Sinlaku (2008), Jangmi (2008), and Linfa (2009) for which Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau (CWB) issued typhoon warnings. An efficient and dynamically consistent TC vortex relocation scheme for the WRF terrain- following mass coordinate has been developed to improve the first guess of the TC analysis, and hence improves the tropical cyclone initialization. The vortex relocation scheme separates the first-guess atmospheric flow into a TC circulation and environmental flow, relocates the TC circulation to its observed location, and adds the relocated TC circulation back to the environmental flow to obtain the updated first guess with a correct TC position. Analysis of these typhoon cases indicates that the relocation procedure moves the typhoon circulation to the observed typhoon position without generating discontinuities or sharp gradients in the first guess. Numerical experiments with and without the vortex relocation procedure for Typhoons Sinlaku, Jangmi, and Linfa forecasts show that about 67% of the first-guess fields need a vortex relocation to correct typhoon position errors while eliminates the topographical effect. -
REVIEW the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I
VOLUME 145 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW NOVEMBER 2017 REVIEW The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclone Evolution and Direct Impacts a b c d CLARK EVANS, KIMBERLY M. WOOD, SIM D. ABERSON, HEATHER M. ARCHAMBAULT, e f f g SHAWN M. MILRAD, LANCE F. BOSART, KRISTEN L. CORBOSIERO, CHRISTOPHER A. DAVIS, h i j k JOÃO R. DIAS PINTO, JAMES DOYLE, CHRIS FOGARTY, THOMAS J. GALARNEAU JR., l m n o p CHRISTIAN M. GRAMS, KYLE S. GRIFFIN, JOHN GYAKUM, ROBERT E. HART, NAOKO KITABATAKE, q r s t HILKE S. LENTINK, RON MCTAGGART-COWAN, WILLIAM PERRIE, JULIAN F. D. QUINTING, i u v s w CAROLYN A. REYNOLDS, MICHAEL RIEMER, ELIZABETH A. RITCHIE, YUJUAN SUN, AND FUQING ZHANG a University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin b Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi c NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida d NOAA/Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, Maryland e Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, Florida f University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York g National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado h University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil i Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California j Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada k The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona l Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland m RiskPulse, Madison, Wisconsin n McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada o Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida p -
White Paper on Land, Infrastructure And
Chapter 6: Public Safety Management [Disaster Prevention] ○ Building a more disaster resistant nation Protecting the lives and property of the people from natural disasters is of the utmost importance. On the other hand, the extremely severe natural conditions of Japan’s national land and the concentration of the population and assets on the cities tend to increase the potential risk of disaster. With this in mind, MLIT is committed to disaster prevention integrating structural improvements and non-structural measures. Among the ministry’s efforts in this regard are: measures against earthquakes through such means as improving the earthquake resistance and overall safety of homes and buildings and urgent improvements in built-up areas; measures against tsunamis, storm surge, and coastal erosion; flood control measures like provisions to mitigate damage in inundated areas during deluges; measures against urban flood damage; measures against sediment related disasters; works for erosion and sediment control in volcano areas; and measures for snow damage control. Number of sediment related disasters for the past ten years (1996-2005) Slope failures 3,000 Landslides 2,537 2,500 Debris flows 2,000 1,629 1,511 1,501 1,500 1,135 1,057 1,160 960 No. of disasters 1,000 897 814 917 461 608 539 693 403 509 712 483 500 152 168 291 275 365 173 258 81 82 137 48 46 57 565 173 64 136 317 373 180 96 218 128 191 0 158 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average for the past 10 years Source: MLIT (1996-2005) Mudslide disaster due to heavy rainfall -
Phase Concept for Mudflow Based on the Influence of Viscosity
Soils and Foundations 2013;53(1):77–90 The Japanese Geotechnical Society Soils and Foundations www.sciencedirect.com journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/sandf Phase concept for mudflow based on the influence of viscosity Shannon Hsien-Heng Leen, Budijanto Widjaja1 National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Department of Construction Engineering, No. 43 Keelung Road, Section 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan Received 22 November 2011; received in revised form 4 July 2012; accepted 1 September 2012 Available online 26 January 2013 Abstract The phase concept implies that the state of soil changes from plastic to viscous liquid as a function of water content. This principle could be used to interpret the behavior of mudflows, the most dangerous mass movements today. When Typhoon Jangmi hit northern Taiwan in 2008, a mudflow occurred in the Maokong area as a result of the high-intensity rainfall. This case was studied using three simulations, each with a different water content. Based on the mudflow classifications, the primary criteria used in this study were flow velocity and solid concentration by volume, while the major rheology parameters directly obtained from our new laboratory device, the flow box test, were yield stress and viscosity. The results show that the mass movement confirmed the aforementioned criteria for mudflow when the water content reaches or exceeds the liquid limit. The flow box test can determine the viscosity for both plastic and viscous liquid states, which is advantageous. Viscosity is important for explaining the general characteristics of mudflow movement because it controls flow velocity. Therefore, the present study successfully elucidates the changes in mudflow from its initiation to its transportation and deposition via a numerical simulation using laboratory rheology parameters. -
The Impact of Dropwindsonde Observations on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR and T-PARC
1728 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 139 The Impact of Dropwindsonde Observations on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR and T-PARC KUN-HSUAN CHOU Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan CHUN-CHIEH WU AND PO-HSIUNG LIN Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan SIM D. ABERSON Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/AOML, Miami, Florida MARTIN WEISSMANN AND FLORIAN HARNISCH Deutsches Zentrum fu¨r Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut fu¨r Physik der Atmospha¨re, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany TETSUO NAKAZAWA Meteorological Research Institute, JMA, Tsukuba, Japan (Manuscript received 3 August 2010, in final form 1 November 2010) ABSTRACT The typhoon surveillance program Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) has been conducted since 2003 to obtain dropwindsonde observations around tropical cyclones near Taiwan. In addition, an international field project The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in which dropwindsonde observations were obtained by both surveillance and reconnaissance flights was conducted in summer 2008 in the same region. In this study, the impact of the dropwindsonde data on track forecasts is investigated for DOTSTAR (2003–09) and T-PARC (2008) experi- ments. Two operational global models from NCEP and ECMWF are used to evaluate the impact of dropwindsonde data. In addition, the impact on the two-model mean is assessed. The impact of dropwindsonde data on track forecasts is different in the NCEP and ECMWF model systems. Using the NCEP system, the assimilation of dropwindsonde data leads to improvements in 1- to 5-day track forecasts in about 60% of the cases. -
Initializing the WRF Model with Tropical Cyclone Real-Time Reports Using the Ensemble
Initializing the WRF Model with Tropical Cyclone Real-Time Reports using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Algorithm Tien Duc Du(1), Thanh Ngo-Duc(2), and Chanh Kieu(3)* (1)National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, 8 Phao Dai Lang, Hanoi, Vietnam 1 (2)Department of Space and Aeronautics, University of Science and Technology of Hanoi, Vietnam 2 (3)Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington IN 47405, USA Revised: 18 April 2017 Submitted to Pure and Applied Geophysical Science Abbreviated title: Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Keywords: Tropical cyclones, ensemble Kalman filter, the WRF model, tropical cyclone vital, ensemble forecasting ____________________ *Corresponding author: Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Program, GY428A Geological Building, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405. Tel: 812-856-5704. Email: [email protected]. 1 1 Abstract 2 This study presents an approach to assimilate tropical cyclone (TC) real-time reports and the 3 University of Wisconsin-Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) 4 Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) data into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model 5 for TC forecast applications. Unlike current methods in which TC real-time reports are used to either 6 generate a bogus vortex or spin-up a model initial vortex, the proposed approach ingests the TC real- 7 time reports through blending a dynamically consistent synthetic vortex structure with the CIMSS- 8 AMV data. The blended dataset is then assimilated into the WRF initial condition, using the local 9 ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) algorithm. Retrospective experiments for a number of 10 TC cases in the north Western Pacific basin during 2013-2014 demonstrate that this approach could 11 effectively increase both the TC circulation and enhance the large-scale environment that the TCs are 12 embedded in. -
Integrated Coastal and Oceanic Process Modeling and Applications to Flood and Sediment Management
12th International Conference on Hydroscience & Engineering Hydro-Science & Engineering for Environmental Resilience November 6-10, 2016, Tainan, Taiwan. Integrated Coastal and Oceanic Process Modeling and Applications to Flood and Sediment Management Yan Ding U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory Vicksburg, USA ABSTRACT oceanic process models (INTCOM) can facilitate multi-purpose engineering practice in developing coastal flood management plans, as This paper presents an integrated coastal and oceanic process modeling well as designing erosion control structures by considering large-scale approach and its engineering applications for simulations of flooding and long-term variations of hydrological and meteorological conditions. and sediment transport in coasts and estuaries. It is demonstrated by a case study on the assessment of long-term morphological changes Various coastal and oceanic processes of waves, currents, and sediment driven by synthetic events (typhoons/hurricanes and monsoons) in the transport with a wide range of spatiotemporal scales can be found from Danshui River estuary in Taiwan. In addition to spatiotemporal deepwater to shallow water. At oceans, wind-generated surface waves variations of detailed flow circulations in the estuary, long-term are dominant, in which the scale of wave length varies from 1m to 1km. simulations of coastal and oceanic processes reveals key features of However, astronomical tidal waves have a long wave length usually seasonal morphological changes driven by waves, tides, and river with several hundred kilometers. As far as beach profile changes are flooding flows. It shows both short-term storms and long-term concerned, significant impacts to morphological changes happen in a monsoons are important for management of flood and sedimentation in relatively-narrow nearshore zone. -
American Memorial Park
National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Natural Resource Condition Assessment American Memorial Park Natural Resource Report NPS/AMME/NRR—2019/1976 ON THIS PAGE A traditional sailing vessel docks in American Memorial Park’s Smiling Cove Marina Photograph by Maria Kottermair 2016 ON THE COVER American Memorial Park Shoreline and the Saipan Lagoon, looking north to Mañagaha Island. Photograph by Robbie Greene 2013 Natural Resource Condition Assessment American Memorial Park Natural Resource Report NPS/AMME/NRR—2019/1976 Robbie Greene1, Rebecca Skeele Jordan1, Janelle Chojnacki1, Terry J. Donaldson2 1 Pacific Coastal Research and Planning Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands 96950 USA 2 University of Guam Marine Laboratory UOG Station, Mangilao, Guam 96923 USA August 2019 U.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Fort Collins, Colorado The National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science office in Fort Collins, Colorado, publishes a range of reports that address natural resource topics. These reports are of interest and applicability to a broad audience in the National Park Service and others in natural resource management, including scientists, conservation and environmental constituencies, and the public. The Natural Resource Report Series is used to disseminate comprehensive information and analysis about natural resources and related topics concerning lands managed by the National Park Service. The series supports the advancement of science, informed decision-making, and the achievement of the National Park Service mission. The series also provides a forum for presenting more lengthy results that may not be accepted by publications with page limitations.