Urban Management 2018-2020 Taking a sustainability turn? Stakeholder perceptions on electrification of motorcycle taxis in Nairobi, Kenya Emilie Martin Supervisor: Dr. Oliver Lah Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Urban Management at Technische Universität Berlin Nairobi, 29th April 2020 Statement of authenticity This thesis contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma in any institution and to the best of my knowledge and belief, the research contains no material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference has been made in the text of the thesis. Emilie Martin Nairobi, 29th April 2020 i Abstract In Kenya, motorcycle taxis known as boda bodas have dramatically increased in numbers over the last two decades, with the amount of registered motorcycles multiplying by 11.4 between 2007 and 2017. The result of this surging phenomenon, also observable in other Sub-Saharan African countries, is their increasing contribution to transport carbon emissions and pollutants, combined with social externalities of traffic accidents and criminality. However, while showing some unsustainable environmental and social patterns, this transport mode is also recognized to cater for mobility needs of urban and rural populations in a context of flawed collective transport and poor road conditions, as well as opportunities for self-employment. In Nairobi, motorcycle taxis remain a minor option, far from walking and minibuses, but have shown one of the quickest modal progressions in the same period. To address the issue of this mode’s sustainability in Nairobi, the thesis explores how a transition to electric motorcycles, a strategy currently implemented in some East-African cities and in the process of being conceptualised by a couple of organisations in Nairobi, may contribute to a betterment strategy. Based on a number of key features identified in electrification literature that shape the sustainability of electric motorcycles, data collected is analysed through the triple lens of environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainability. A diversity of perceptions of expected sustainability impacts is catered for via a survey conducted with motorcycle taxis drivers as an entry point to the research subject, deepened in a second stage through semi-structured interviews of electric and urban mobility experts. A matrix combining perceived impacts (opportunities, risks) and feasibility (drivers, barriers) is applied to capture a complete picture of stakeholders’ views. Results of both methodologies indicate that stakeholders predominantly identify potentials for benefits, more substantial than the anticipated risks. A hierarchy of perceived sustainability dimensions emerge, led by economic gains, followed by environmental benefits and lastly by more uncertain social effects. This study identifies a theoretical reversal from a low-carbon strategy with co-benefits to a socio-economic project with environmental co-benefits, likely deriving from the focus on economic development in Kenya and the taxi component of boda bodas. While economic gains for drivers prevail in the perceptions of stakeholders, with secondary economic benefits regarding the manufacturing industry and job opportunities, environmental benefits are still identified by experts in the form of climate change mitigation and reduced air pollution, partly stemming from the first sustainability variable of cleanliness of the electricity mix. Options to mitigate the risk of battery end-of-life mismanagement, that is the second environmental variable, are discussed and will depend upon modalities of projects implementation. Finally, social aspects lag behind and mainly revolve around road safety, as a potential risk and benefit, with little attention given to impacts on self-regulation and opportunities for multimodality. Potential rebound effects, including an undesired modal shift, will be a further decisive criterion to assess the sustainability outcome. In addition to the sustainability assessment, the thesis identifies a list of facilitators and barriers to electric mobility take-up. To operationalise the assessment, the research finally suggests a set of policy recommendations aiming to improve the sustainability footprint of a transition to electric motorcycle taxis. It recommends further investigating this subject that bears potentials to transform informal transportation in Sub-Saharan Africa and to renew debates on informal transport, through longitudinal research studies. Keywords: electric motorcycles, electric two-wheelers, motorcycle taxis, informal transport, sustainable transport, low-carbon transport, Sub-Saharan Africa ii Acknowledgments I would like to warmly thank Oliver Lah for accompanying me through the research process, providing advice in a constantly positive manner and offering the fantastic opportunity to stay with UN Habitat’s Urban Basic Services Section during the study timeframe. I wish to express my gratitude to Debashish Bhattacharjee and Stefanie Holzwarth from UN-Habitat for their regular help, guidance and trust. Not only are they great professionals, but they also have, together with urban mobility colleagues Tomaž Cigüt, Judith Oginga Martins, Elizabeth Mmbaya, Rahab Mundara, Kennedy Kamau, Judith Owigar, Lander Bosch, Michael Kwasi, and further project officers of the Urban Basic Services Section, managed to create a warm working environment for which I am very grateful. It was both a pleasure and honour to exchange with you on mobility betterment projects. I particularly express my thanks to the individuals who agreed to be interviewed for the purpose of this research, sometimes mentioned by their organisation names (UN Environment, ITDP, Boda Boda Safety Association of Kenya, WEEE Center, MoTIHUD, Nairobi City County, Sustainable Transport Africa, BOTTAX, M-Kopa, Uber, C4D Lab, Flone Initiative), sometimes anonymised in order to ensure confidentiality of transmitted information (start-ups A and B, European donor agency, mechanical engineering and urban development professors, urban planner). You have impressed me by your willingness to share information, enthusiasm and energy to improve the mobility ecosystem in Kenya. This research comes as the final step to complete the “Urban Management” Master of Science program at the Technical University of Berlin, carefully designed and organised by Bettina Hamann and Claudia Matthews. I am grateful for this insightful and highly enjoyable study programme that caters for various academic backgrounds and urban topics, offering us the opportunity to meet urban practitioners and friends, fully living up to its promises. Applying knowledge on the ground in Pristina is and will remain a great memory. Finally, this work would not have been possible without the constant emotional and logistical support from Jonas, Catherine, Léonor and Raphaël, moving from Berlin to Nairobi and juggling everyday work and family balance. iii Table of Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................................................................. iii Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................................................................... iv List of Figures and Tables ..................................................................................................................................................................... v List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................................................. vi Section 1 - Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Problem statement ................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2. Research aim ............................................................................................................................................................ 2 1.3. Research question .................................................................................................................................................. 2 1.4. Methodology and structure ............................................................................................................................... 4 Section 2 - Literature review ........................................................................................................................................ 7 2.1. Motorcycles taxis in Sub-Saharan Africa ...................................................................................................... 7 2.2. Development of electric two-wheelers, including electric motorcycles ...................................... 11 2.3. The sustainability question of electric motorcycles .............................................................................. 15 2.4. Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................................................