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Counting Votes: Essays on Electoral Reform

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Counting Votes: Essays on Electoral Reform Copyright ©2016 by the Fraser Institute. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permis- sion except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. As the researchers have worked independently, the views and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the Board of Direc- tors of the Fraser Institute, the staff, or supporters. Date of issue: October 2016. Printed and bound in Canada. Cover design and artwork: Bart Allen Fraser Institute d www.fraserinstitute.org Counting Votes: Essays on Electoral Reform Lydia Miljan, editor FRASER I N S T I T U T E Fraser Institute d www.fraserinstitute.org Contents Preface ............................................... i Chapter 1: First-Past-the-Post: Empowered Voters, Accountable Government John Pepall ...................................... 1 Chapter 2: Electoral Rules and Fiscal Policy Outcomes Jason Clemens, Taylor Jackson, Steve LaFleur, and Joel Emes ...................................... 21 Chapter 3: The Consequences of the Alternative Vote Lydia Miljan and Taylor Jackson .................... 45 Chapter 4: The Imperative of a Referendum Patrice Dutil ........................................ 81 Publishing information .................... 104 Purpose, funding, and independence ....... 105 About the Fraser Institute .................. 105 Editorial Advisory Board ................... 106 www.fraserinstitute.org d Fraser Institute Preface In its December Speech from the Throne, Justin Trudeau’s government reaffirmed the Liberal party’s campaign promise that 2015 would be the last election held under first-past-the-post (FPTP). While the government has no preference as to what should replace the 150-year-old FPTP system, it has ruled out holding a referendum to help guide the choice. On June 7, 2016, the government formed the Parliamentary Commit- tee on Electoral Reform. The committee’s task is to deliver alternatives to our current electoral system by December 1, 2016. In the committee’s mandate, and in its five guiding principles, there is no mention of assess- ing the current system. While the government claims that “the principles do not prejudge an outcome,” the government’s pledge does preclude the committee from recommending the status quo. The authors of this volume are not restricted in this manner. Instead, they assess and evaluate FPTP against other systems to determine whether a different system could pro- vide a better arrangement for the Canadian electorate. The parliamentary committee began its deliberations formally at the start of July by launching a website devoted to educating Canadians about electoral reform and encouraging them to engage in a “national dialogue.” Over the summer months the committee held over 20 public meetings and heard from electoral reform advocates, academics, and individuals. De- spite their diligence, a September 2016 Ipsos poll found that 81 percent Canadians were not aware that the committee had begun its work. It is www.fraserinstitute.org d Fraser Institute d i ii d Counting Votes: Essays on Electoral Reform therefore not surprising that 55 percent of Canadian felt that there should be a national referendum to decide how future elections should be run in Canada. The fact that so few Canadians are aware of the committee’s activities should not come as surprise; it is likely that many were unaware that the Liberal party made the campaign promise in the first place. Although the 2015 election campaign will be remembered as the longest one in over a century, electoral reform was not one of its dominant issues. In fact, it was only mentioned in passing during the first all-party debate in August, and ignored in all subsequent debates. While the Liberals promised that they would get rid of FPTP in their campaign platform, they provided few de- tails about why they made that commitment, or what they would replace the system with. The NDP and the Green parties had more concrete plans, each promising to replace the existing system with some form of propor- tional representation. Even the Conservatives made a passing reference to electoral reform by committing to holding a referendum before making any changes. The media paid scant attention to electoral reform during the 11-week campaign, focusing instead on Syrian refugees, deficit issues, and follow- ing the leaders’ tours. It was only after the December throne speech that newspaper columnists began writing about the different electoral systems and making the case for one over another. In this volume, we take a look at the issue of electoral reform without pre-judging any one system over another. John Pepall starts us off with his chapter, “First-Past-the-Post: Empowered Voters, Accountable Govern- ment.” His sober examination of why voting matters and the consequences of choosing an electoral system should give Canadians reason to pause and consider why we might want to engage in this process. At its core, Pepall argues that changing the system may affect the outcome of elections, but it can’t negate the fact that in a multi-party pluralistic system, there will be winners and losers. He aptly remarks that systems that allow voters to make more than one choice creates a paradox in that voters can avoid mak- ing discrete choices. In the end, there is a greater chance of minority and coalition governments. Fraser Institute d www.fraserinstitute.org Preface d iii Some have argued that minority and coalition governments are harm- less; indeed, they often make the case that these types of government create more cooperation and collegiality. Jason Clemens and his co-authors ad- dress this issue in their paper, “Electoral Rules and Fiscal Policy Outcomes.” Their analysis focuses on proportional representation electoral systems and their propensity to incur higher debts and deficits than majority/plu- rality systems. The experience from major Western democracies is that systems with proportional representation tend to have more political par- ties than those with FPTP. Canada is an outlier for majority/plurality sys- tems with its five parties. But that does not mean that a PR system would reduce the number of parties; indeed, it is more likely that the number of parties would increase because of incentives in PR systems. Moreover, this increase in the number parties is directly related to an increase in coalition governments. From 2000 to 2014, countries with coalition governments had higher government spending and higher rates of borrowing than those with majority governments. While proportional representation has more of a propensity to increase government spending as a percentage of GDP than our current system, what about other electoral systems, such as the alternative vote? The al- ternative vote (AV) system is similar to FPTP in that it is part of the family of voting systems called majority/plurality. It is also the only system that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau noted he had a personal preference for. This system offers an easy way to change the electoral system without changing the number of seats in the legislature—and it only changes the selection on the ballot. It is also associated with a decrease in strategic voting because voters rank order their choices. This means that rather than marking an X for the one party a voter wishes to be elected, voters rank their choices. If their first choice happens to have the fewest number of votes, but there is no clear winner, then their second and subsequent choices are taken into consideration. While this system may seem relatively easy to administer from the government’s perspective, it can have consequences in election outcomes. In the essay, “Consequences of the Alternative Vote,” Taylor Jackson and I examine poll data from the 1997 to 2015 elections to see if the outcome would be any different in an AV system than under FPTP. We www.fraserinstitute.org d Fraser Institute iv d Counting Votes: Essays on Electoral Reform found that in all cases, AV benefitted the Liberal Party the most, and the NDP the second. In all cases, conservative parties lost seats. While we ac- knowledge that each election is unique and that election results from any one campaign have far-reaching consequences, we note that this system would require right-leaning parties to adjust their election strategy and policy choices more than the centre or left-leaning parties. Moreover, the study also suggests that in the last 23 years, an AV system would have been unlikely to change the outcome of elections where Liberals were the victor under our current system. But it would have changed the outcome for the minority Conservative governments—and their 2011 victory. While the current government’s five guiding principles are laudable in that they seek to produce a fairer electoral system, one of the most glaring omissions in those principles is that they place no value on a change in the governing party. According to Freedom House, one of the indicators of a free and fair election is that there is “a realistic opportunity for the oppo- sition to increase its support or gain power through elections.” A central tenet of electoral success is that there is a fair opportunity for other politi- cal parties to have a realistic chance at changing the current regime. This is not only important for political parties themselves, but it is crucial for the renewal of countries to ensure that they have policy changes. The AV sys- tem fails to address any of the five values the government seeks to address in its electoral reform initiative, and in fact, it would create a new problem: our elections would be less competitive in the future. This leads to the question of the role the public should have in the elec- toral reform process. The all-party committee has put a significant amount of effort into inviting the public to be engaged in the discussion.
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