Food Issues Demographic, Urban, Migration and Security Challenges

No.2, NOVEMBER 2016

MaPs & FaCTs fooD issues DeMOGraPHiC, UrBaN, MiGraTiON aND seCUriTy CHalleNGes www.food-security.net

SAHEL AND WEST AFRICA Club UEMOA Secretariat About the RPCA

Promoting dialogue and co-ordination, building a coherent and shared understanding of the food and nutrition situation, and nurturing decision-making: these objectives have been at the heart of the Food Crisis Prevention Network’s (RPCA) mission for over 30 years. Created in 1984, the RPCA is an international network for co-operation and co-ordination under the political leadership of the Commissions of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). Co-ordinated jointly by the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) and the Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD), the RPCA brings together the region’s key food and nutrition security stakeholders: representatives of Sahelian and West African countries, regional organisations, regional and international information systems, bilateral and multilateral co-operation agencies, humanitarian agencies and international NGOs, agricultural professional organisations, civil society and the private sector.

This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

We encourage the use of our maps. Please include the SWAC’s copyright, and inform or contact us for specific requests: [email protected]

Photos: Nutrition training, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, 2016 © OECD/SWAC Contents demographic trends p. 6 Migration p. 22

• In numbers • Less than a third of West African migrants leaves the African continent • West African agriculture has risen to the challenge of population growth • High regional mobility • Undernourishment has decreased • Three sub-regional migration areas • 35 million people are still undernourished • Social and business networks • Chronic malnutrition persists • Sahelian migration within the region • West African girls are married off too young • Migrant remittances • The education of girls contributes to reducing fertility • Half a million refugees in Chad and Niger • Population policies

At the crossroads of Urbanisation p. 14 food & security challenges p. 29

• Irreversible urbanisation • Security threats exacerbate structural weaknesses • More and bigger cities • The example of north-eastern Nigeria • A dense network of small and medium-sized agglomerations • The example of Niger • The rural population continues to grow • The example of Chad but the urban population is catching up • The city is the engine of the food economy • The food economy: a primary source of employment Three priorities p. 33 • The city as an accelerator of demographic transition • Food crisis prevention & management • Food security in cities • Resilience • Growth & employment

At a glance

his latest edition in the “Maps & Facts” Food issues are at the heart of the West Food issues must therefore remain at the series looks at the demographic, African economy and society; ignoring centre of all reflection, policy and action – Turban, migration and security their importance would be a strategic error. from food crisis prevention, to economic challenges in the Sahel and West Africa The business of making food for human development, to building the resilience of the through the lens of food issues. It comple- consumption, including all elements of most vulnerable people. ments the “Maps & Facts” issue on climate the value chain – production, processing and climate change that was produced in and distribution – is the largest sector in November 2015 for COP 21 (page 36). the region, far ahead of oil, cash crops or industry. The food sector is key for creating This document promotes the following more jobs, stimulating stronger and more key message: the challenges facing food inclusive growth, security should not be overshadowed by the opening up a wider “The challenges facing food security should resurgence of demographic, migration and field of opportunities not be overshadowed by the resurgence of security concerns on the international agenda. for agricultural demographic, migration and security concerns Rather, food security is closely related to these producers and other issues, and should be considered as part of the entrepreneurs, and on the international agenda. Rather, food solution to the challenges they raise. pulling the most security is closely related to these issues, and vulnerable out of should be considered as part of the solution to poverty and insecurity. the challenges they raise.”

Demographic trends In Numbers

Over the past three decades, the population of West Africa has more Figure 1 than doubled. Every year, ten million children are born and another ten West African population, 1950-2050 million children are of age to attend school. Education, health, access to drinking water, food, jobs and the environment are all challenges in millions % made even more difficult by high population growth. In 2015, the 800 50 population of West Africa exceeded 370 million people. To project the 700 population size in the years leading up to 2050, the United Nations 45 600 uses four projection scenarios that differ only in the total fertility rate used. The most commonly used scenario is the average fertility rate. 500 40 In West Africa, the difference between the average rate and the lowest 400 growth scenario (anticipating a sharp decline in fertility) is about 300 35 70 million people. It is this scenario that should be the benchmark Total 200 population % of children for development policies. The goal is less to limit the growth in aged 0-14 years 30 the number of inhabitants, than it is to reduce the proportion 100 of very young people within the total population. At the end of 0 25 the last century, children aged 0-14 years, accounted for 45% of the 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 years population. If fertility declines rapidly, in 35 years, that category will Total population - low projection be no more than 32% of the population (Figure 1). During the phase of Total populationPopulation - totale,median-variant avec projections projection faibles demographic transition marked by declines in fertility, the decrease PercentagePopulation of children totale, (0-14avec projections years) - lowmédianes projection in the number of dependent persons per active person frees up the PercentagePourcentage of children des 0-14(0-14 ans, years) avec projections- median-variant faibles projection ability of people to save and invest productively, a key driver of strong, Pourcentage des 0-14 ans, avec projections médianes sustainable growth. Source: United Nations (2015), World Population Prospects

6 Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA) Demographic trends

West African agriculture has risen to the challenge of population growth

Figure 2 Food supply from domestic production After two decades of stagnation, agriculture took off in the middle of Food supply from domestic production the 1980s. In 30 years, agricultural production has increased at a much faster rate than the population and the supply of locally- Mali produced food increased from 1 700 to 2 400 kilocalories per person per Ghana day (Kcal/person/day). In most West African countries, dependence on Burkina Faso food imports has not increased. This represented 20% (kcal/person/ West Africa day) in 1980 and is similar today. With massive campaigns to promote Nigeria the rice sector and off-season farming, rice imports grew only 3.5 kg/per Niger person in 30 years. These achievements, which might have been even Sierra Leone better if several countries had not experienced prolonged periods of Guinea conflict and instability, are a credit to West African farmers, agricultural Côte d'Ivoire producers, traders, transporters and processors. They have been able Chad to respond to strong and steady increases in demand. In 1950, nine out Togo of ten households were farmers. In 2010, the numbers have decreased Guinea-Bissau to five out of ten. A decreasing proportion of the population has to feed Benin the other part of the population, which is rapidly increasing. They have Liberia only been able to do this because of steady improvements in agricul- Senegal tural labour productivity which, after years of falling short, has been Gambia 1980 2010 increasing since 1980 at the impressive rate of 2.6% per year. Yields Mauritania have also increased, but less robustly. This is not surprising; as long as Cabo Verde kcal/person/day land is easily accessible, farmers prefer to increase their production by 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 261 2 500 increasing the amount of land they cultivate. Sources:Sources :FAO FAO (2015); 2015 ; CSAO/OCDE OECD/SWAC 2015 (2015)

undernourishment has decreased

The West Africa region leads the Map 1 continent in progress toward reducing Progress towards achieving food security the number of people suffering from hunger and malnutrition. Despite rapid World Food Summit target (2014-16) MDG 1c target (2014-16) population growth across the region and Halve the number of undernourished Halve the proportion of people who suffer people by 2015 recurrent droughts in the Sahel, West from hunger (1990-2015) Africa has reduced the prevalence of undernourishment by 60% over the last two decades, from 24.2% in 1990-92 to 9.6% in 2014-16. Ghana and Mali have achieved both the Millennium Development Goal target of cutting in half the proportion of people who suffer from hunger (MDG 1c) and the World Food Summit target of halving the absolute number of undernourished people by 2015.

Target achieved Off-track Close to reaching the target Not assessed Slow progress Non Sub-Saharan countries

Source: FAO (2015), Regional Overview of Food Insecurity in Africa

8 Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA) Demographic trends

35 million people are still undernourished

Despite a significant decrease in Figure 3 undernourishment, many West Africans have Prevalence of undernourishment been left behind.10% of the population – around 35 million people – still suffer Mali 2008–10 from chronic undernourishment or Nigeria 2000–02 malnutrition. Among those particularly 1990–92 Ghana touched are the households of farmers excluded from the market, agro-pastoralists Mauritania West Africa 11% = West African weighted average or pastoralists over-dependent on livestock without Cabo Verde and threatened by repeated droughts, and Niger poor workers in the informal economy. These Gambia people – mostly women and children – are Benin structurally vulnerable and unable to Côte d’Ivoire withstand the recurring shocks caused by droughts, floods, crop-destroying pests, Senegal economic crises and conflicts. Guinea Togo Burkina Faso Guinea-Bissau Sierra Leone Liberia Chad

10 20 30 40 50 60 % Sources: FAO (2015); OECD/SWAC (2015)

Chronic malnutrition persists

Map 2 Malnutrition is, first and foremost, a Prevalence of stunting (% of children, 0-5 years) chronic problem. Rates of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) in the Sahel have exceeded 2000-06 the alert threshold of 10% for at least the past 15 years. In many areas, they regularly exceed the emergency threshold of 15%. Mauritania 35% Mali Nearly 40% of children under five years of 38% Niger age are stunted. Many factors explain this Senegal 50% Chad 41% Gambia 16% situation: poverty that limits access to food, 22% Burkina Faso 35% weak social protection systems, poor health Guinea- Guinea Bissau Benin 35% 38% Nigeria situation, etc. This is very much a structural 41% Sierra Leone Côte Togo 38% 40% d’Ivoire Ghana 24% problem that emphasises the need to address Liberia 34% 22% the root causes of food insecurity and which 39% confirms the relevance of the Global Alliance 2015 for Resilience (AGIR, page 34). With the exception of Cabo Verde, a country that does

not have any particular difficulties, all Sahelian Mauritania and West African countries have joined the 22% Mali 38.5% SUN Movement, a global initiative to improve Niger Senegal 43% Chad nutrition. In 2014, ECOWAS launched its own < 20% Gambia 19.4% 38.7% Zero Hunger Initiative. 24.5% Burkina Faso 20 < 30% Guinea- Guinea 32.9% Bissau Benin 30 < 40% 31.3% 34% Nigeria 27.6% Sierra Leone Côte Togo 32.9% ≥ 40% 37.9% d’Ivoire Ghana 27.5% Liberia 29.6% 18.8% 32.1% Sources: UNICEF, WHO (2013); UNICEF, WHO, World Bank (2015); Global Nutrition Report 2015

10 Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA) Demographic trends

West African girls are married off too young

Les jeunes ﬁlles ouest-africaines se marientMap 3 trop jeunes Seven West African countries rank among Percentage of young women (20-24 years) married before age 18 Pourcentage de jeunes femmes (20-24 ans) mariées avant l'âge de 18 ans the top 20 countries in the world with the highest rate of child marriage: Niger (1), Chad (3), Mali (5), Guinea (6), Burkina Faso (8), Sierra Leone (13) and Nigeria (14). In Niger, three out of four girls marry before their 18th birthday, contributing to the highest fertility rate in the world of more than seven Mauritania children per woman. Nigeria and Niger 34% Mali are among the top 20 countries with the 55% Niger highest absolute number of child marriages, Senegal 76% Chad 33% 68% with 1.193 million and 244 000 married girls, Gambia 36% Burkina Faso respectively. Child marriage reinforces gender 32.9 % Guinea- Guinea Bissau 22% Benin inequality and violates human rights by 52% 32% Nigeria depriving young girls of the opportunity to fulfil Sierra Leone Côte Togo 43% d’Ivoire Ghana 25% their potential. The region is collectively 44% Liberia 33% 21% losing a huge, undeveloped human capital. < 30% 38% In 2014, the African Union launched a campaign 30 < 50% to accelerate change across the continent. 50 < 75% Burkina Faso, Chad, Ghana, Mali and Niger ≥ 75% < 30 % have launched national campaigns toSources end : UNICEF, Rapport sur la situation des enfants dans le monde 2015 ; Girls not Brides 30 < 50 % child marriage. © 2016. Secrétariat du Club du Sahel et de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CSAO/OCDE) Sources: UNICEF (2015), State of the World’s Children 2015; Girls Not50 Brides< 75 % ≥ 75 %

The education of girls contributes to reducing fertility

The number of children per woman of Table 1 childbearing age (five West African countries Fertility and school enrolment are among the top 10 in the world) is Country Fertility Birth rate primary school net Literacy rate significantly correlated to the prevalence of rate Girls attendance rate girls (15-24 years) early marriage, the fertility rate of girls and % (2010-15*) (14‑18 years) Girls, % (2011-14*) % (2006-13*) per 1 000 their level of education. Significant efforts are being made in the area of education, Cabo Verde 2.4 92 - 98 Ghana 4.2 65 70 83 however, the effect is mitigated by the rate Mauritania 4.7 71 62 48 of population growth. In Mali, children under Togo 4.7 77 87 73 five are half as likely to experience stunting if Liberia 4.8 147 43 37 the mother has attended middle school. The Sierra Leone 4.8 131 74 56 demographic transition and the fight Benin 4.9 98 73 31 against malnutrition rely heavily on the Guinea-Bissau 5.0 137 62 71 condition of girls and women. Côte d'Ivoire 5.1 125 66 39 Guinea 5.1 154 53 22 Senegal 5.2 80 66 71 Burkina Faso 5.6 136 50 33 Nigeria 5.7 123 66 58 Gambia 5.8 88 66 67 chad 6.3 203 48 46 Mali 6.4 178 50 34 Niger 7.6 210 46 15

*Data refer to the most recent year available Sources: UNFPA (2015) ; UNICEF (2015), State of the World’s Children 2015 during the period specified.

12 Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA) Demographic trends

Population policies

Since the 1960s, mortality has declined Delays in the decline of the fertility the speed of the demographic transition steadily due to advances in medicine, rate will pose serious challenges to into account - especially in countries where immunisation and improved access to basic the improvement of food and nutrition this transition is less advanced - in order to services like drinking water. Population security. Food security policies should take accelerate its completion. policies should have resulted in a decline in natality greater than mortality to accelerate Figure 4 the demographic transition. However, this Birth and death rates in West Africa* was not the case. Such policies suffer from (‰) a lack of political support and from strong 50 47.8 socio-cultural restrictions. They should 46.7 47.4 46.8 43.5 Birth rate now be placed at the centre of development 41.3 40.1 strategies to benefit from increased financial 40 and human resources and thereby influence policies across all sectors. Population policies 30 should include the distribution of modern 28.4 and traditional forms of contraception and 25.2 20 should use the media to inform people 21.7 18.8 about the benefits of lower birth rates. The 17.5 15.3 13.7 least resilient and most vulnerable and 10 marginalised women should be prioritised, Death rate especially the poor and those who have limited access to education, healthcare and 0 1950–55 1960–65 1970–75 1980–85 1990–95 2000–05 2005–10 a regular, healthy diet. Policies should also *without Chad draw on urbanisation as a strong factor for change (page 14). Sources: OECD/SWAC (2013), Settlement, Market and Food Security; United Nations (2010)

Mauritania Cabo Verde Mali Niger UrbanisationSenegal Chad Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea- Guinea Benin Bissau Nigeria Sierra Leone Côte Togo d’Ivoire Ghana irreversible urbanisationLiberia

Africa is the least urbanised continent in the world, but an 1980 irreversible urban transition is very much underway. In West Africa, the number of urban agglomerations increased from 152 in Mauritania 1950 to almost 2 000 in 2010. Today towns and cities are home to Cabo Verde Mali nearly 50% of the region’s total population. At only 18%, Niger remains Niger Chad Senegal one of the least urbanised countries in the world, comparable with Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea- Burundi and Ethiopia. Guinea Benin Bissau Nigeria Sierra Leone Côte Togo d’Ivoire Ghana Map 4 Liberia Levels of urbanisation 2010 < 10% > 25 < 40% 10-25% 40 < 50% Mauritania Cabo Verde Mali Niger 1950 Chad Senegal Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea- Guinea Benin Mauritania Bissau Cabo Verde Nigeria Mali Sierra Leone Côte Togo Niger d’Ivoire Ghana Senegal Chad Liberia Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea- Guinea Benin Bissau Nigeria Sierra Leone Côte Togo d’Ivoire Ghana Source: OECD/SWAC (2013), Settlement, Market and Food Security Liberia

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Mauritania Cabo Verde Mali Niger Chad Senegal Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea- Guinea Benin Bissau Nigeria Sierra Leone Côte Togo d’Ivoire Ghana Liberia

Mauritania Cabo Verde Mali Niger Chad Senegal Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea- Guinea Benin Bissau Nigeria Sierra Leone Côte Togo d’Ivoire Ghana Liberia Urbanisation

More and bigger cities

Beyond the megacities, a dense network Map 5 of small and medium-sized cities is Urban agglomerations with more than 10 000 inhabitants growing. This is helping to shape national urban networks and to increasingly connect 1980 770 urban agglomerations urban and rural populations.

10 000 - 30 000 30 000 - 100 000 100 000 - 350 000 350 000 - 1 million 1- 2 million > 2 million 2010 1 947 urban agglomerations

Number of inhabitants 10 000 - 30 000 30 000 - 100 000 100 000 - 350 000 350 000 - 1 million 1-2 million

> 2 million Source: OECD/SWAC (2016) 10 000 - 30 000 30 000 - 100 000 100 000 - 350 000 350 000 - 1 million 1- 2 million > 2 million

A DENSE network of Small and medium-sized agglomerations

Map 6 Rural density and urban networks

cities (inhabitants)

10 000 - 25 000 25 000 - 50 000 50 000 - 150 000 150 000 - 500 000 500 000 - 2 million > 2 million

Rural density (inhabitants/km2)

< 2 2 - 15 > 15 - 50 > 50 - 150 > 150

Source: OECD/SWAC (2013), Settlement, Market and Food Security

16 Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA) in millions

600

500

400 Urbanisation

300 The rural population continues to grow but the urban population is catching up 200 Figure 5 Rural and urban populations in West Africa 100

Rural population in millions Urban population 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 600

1950 2000 2050 500 Rural population 8.4% 34.7% 37.3% 400 91.6% 65.3% Urban population 62.7% 300

200

100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1950 2000 2050

Source: United Nations (2015), World Population Prospects Rural population 8.4% 34.7% 37.3% 91.6% 65.3% Urban population 62.7%

the City IS THE ENGINE OF THE FOOD ECONOMY

Rural populations tend to concentrate Figure 6 in areas near cities. The growth of cities share of regional food gdp by country*, 2010 therefore stimulates the integration of rural and urban areas, and the vector of Other West African countries integration is trade. markets provide at Burkina Faso 1.6% Benin 1.9% least two-thirds of household food Mali 1.9% 1970 1980 Senegal 3.4% consumption in West Africa. In addition, about one-quarter of the rural population Côte d'Ivoire 3.8% works outside of the agricultural, livestock

and fisheries sectors. The urban, informal Regional food GDP Ghana 8.5% sector largely depends on transportation, USD 178 billion processing and the sale of food products. A food economy is rapidly developing between rural and urban areas, which, in 2010, was Nigeria 71.4% estimated at USD 178 billion, or 36% of the regional GDP.

*GDP expressed in terms of purchasing power parity source: Allen, T. and P. Heinrigs (2016), “Emerging Opportunities in the West African Food Economy”, West African Papers, No. 1, OECD Publishing, Paris.

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The food economy: a primary source of employment

Agriculture represents only 60% of the Production processes are frequently As the region’s primary economic sector, food economy. The economic activities that artisanal, involving limited mechanisation the food industry is by far the main take place upstream (input supply, seeds) and and standardisation. But these companies source of employment. It should be placed downstream (processing, trade) account for are gradually changing and an increasing at the centre of strategies to provide jobs for 40%. The food industry is growing faster share of them are investing, mechanisng, millions of young people and to develop than agricultural production. It consists of professionalising and even industrialising. income-generating activities for the most numerous and increasingly complex value vulnerable populations. chains. For example, processed products based on cereals, whether ready-to-eat Figure 7 products (breads, cookies, cakes) or ready- Manufacturing activities in Senegal, 1980-2010 to-use products (flour, meal, grains), go through several stages before reaching the 1 000 Metallurgy final consumer. They are subject to more or )

D Chemicals S U less sophisticated methods of processing, 800 Agro-industry n o i l stabilisation and packaging. The raw material l i m was bagged, transported, unloaded, stored, ( 600 inspected, calibrated, cleaned, crushed, rolled, sometimes dried or roasted, chilled 400 or frozen, packaged, wrapped and sometimes Value added cooked in street restaurants. Apart from a 200 few relatively large industrial structures (breweries, flour mills, etc.), the sector 0 primarily consists of microenterprises and 1980 1990 2000 2010 SMEs which are often family-run and informal. Source: Allen, T. and P. Heinrigs (2016), “Emerging Opportunities in the West African Food Economy”, West African Papers, No. 1, OECD Publishing, Paris.

The city as an accelerator of demographic transition

Urbanisation is a powerful force for Figure 8 lowering fertility. It promotes the education Urbanisation and fertility of girls and facilitates access to healthcare; it 8 80 offers more employment opportunities for Fertility rate Level of urbanisation % women; access to information and dissemi- nation of ideas and attitudes happens faster 6 60 than in rural areas; and housing is more expensive and is, therefore, less spacious. This phenomenon is proven in West Africa, with variances from one country to another 4 40 and from one period to another. The conti- nuation of the urban transition should accelerate decreases in fertility and facilitate 2 20 the downward population trend. Population policies should seize the opportunity to expand on these declines (page 13). 0 0

Mali Togo Niger Chad Benin Ghana Nigeria GuineaLiberia GambiaSenegal Mauritania Cabo Verde Burkina Faso Guinea-BissauSierra Leone Côte d’Ivoire Source: OECD/SWAC (2013), Settlement, Market and Food Security

20 Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA) Urbanisation

Food security in cities

Urban food insecurity is a real problem, Figure 9 the scale of which is likely to increase as Distribution of household food consumption, 2010 urban populations expand. The problem is poorly documented, however, and its unique Urbainurban Ruralrural characteristics should be better taken into account in food and nutrition monitoring systems. In particular, urban households Dairy depend almost exclusively on the market for Beverages food. Food security, therefore, depends on the Meat & fish level and stability of food prices. And prices Fruits & vegetables depend on how well the entire food chain (production, processing, transportation, Cereals storage and distribution) functions (page 35). Other food These processes might face obstacles and shocks that must be anticipated by food crisis prevention mechanisms. In addition, it Source: Allen, T. and P. Heinrigs (2016), “Emerging Opportunities in the West African Food Economy”, is important to take into account the fact that West African Papers, No. 1, OECD Publishing, Paris. the composition of the household food basket in urban areas is significantly different than that of rural areas.

Migration Less than a third of West African migrants leaves the African continent

In 2015, the UN estimated the number Figure 10 of West African migrants in the world at West African migrants in the world 8.7 million. About 66% of them are located

in West Africa, 20% in Europe, 8% in North 1990 2000 2015 5.7 million migrants 6.4 million migrants 8.7 million migrants America and the rest are mainly in other parts of Africa. Over time, there has been a slow 0.6% erosion of the proportion of migrants staying 5.5% 8.2% 0.3% 2.4% 0.3% within Africa as more people travel to North America, Europe and, to a lesser extent, Asia. 11% 13.3% 18.6% 11% Figure 11 7.6% Country of origin of 75.2% 73.2% 6.5 % 65.9% West African migrants in Europe

2015 1.6 million Other migrants Nigeria 22% 25% Cabo Verde West Africa Rest of Europe North Asia 7% Africa America Mali 6% Senegal Afrique de l’Ouest Reste de l’Afrique Europe Amérique du Nord Asie Côte 17% d’Ivoire Ghana 9% 14% Source: United Nations (2015), Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Trends in International Migrant Stock

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High regional mobility

West Africans are among the most mobile Figure 12 populations in the world. Intra-regional Distribution of West African emigrants, 2015 mobility is almost seven times greater than the volume of migration from West Burkina Faso Africa to the rest of the world. The ECOWAS Niger Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons, Benin Residence, and Establishment (1979) favours Togo intra‑regional mobility, although its appli- cation still encounters numerous obstacles Mali on the ground. This protocol and its additional Côte d’Ivoire texts reflect the political will of ECOWAS Guinea member states to place regional mobility at Mauritania the heart of the regional integration process. West Africa Liberia Guinea-Bissau Ghana Sierra Leone West Africa Senegal Rest of Africa Gambia Europe Nigeria North America Chad Asia Cabo Verde Source: United Nations (2015), Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % Trends in International Migrant Stock © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA) Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues 23 migRAtion

THREE SUB-REGIONAL migRAtion AReAs

Côte d’ivoire and nigeria make up the two Map 7 main poles of migration in the region. West african emigration within West africa, 2015 They are the main receiving countries for emigrants from neighbouring countries. Senegal and Gambia make up a third pole of migration. But the off icial figures belie a much larger migration. The Nigerian Population Commission believes that, although a Mauritania Cabo Verde little over 1 million ECOWAS nationals are 58% Mali Niger 20% off icially registered as living in Nigeria, the Senegal Chad 24% 43% 32% 39% real numbers could be as high as 3-4 million. Gambia 47% 22% 39% Burkina Faso Guinea- Guinea 91% Benin Bissau 20% 24% 22% 28% 29% Nigeria 80% Sierra Leone Côte Togo 39% d’Ivoire Ghana 21% 22% 38% Liberia 46%

55%

Only values greater than 20% of the emigrant workforce from each country present in the other countries of the region are represented.

source: United Nations (2015), Departement for Economic and Social Aff airs, International Migration Trends

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SOCIAL AND BUSINESS netWoRKs

West African migration forms the basis Map 8 of strong social and business networks. regional maize flows These networks contribute to the regional integration of agribusiness markets such as the maize market.

Dakar

Niamey Maradi

Diaobé Bamako Ouagadougou Kano Malanville N’Djamena Funtua Sikasso Bobo Dioulasso Bauchi Gombe Saminaka Parakou Tamale Bouaké Kumasi Ibadan

Lome Lagos Abidjan Accra Port Harcourt

Principaux ﬂux Consommation urbaine (tonnes par an) Marchés Zones de surplus Major flows 2 000Urban – 5 000 consumption (tonnes per year) Gros Markets Surplus areas 10 000 – 40 000 > 40 000 Détail et gros 5 000 – 10 2000 000 - 5 000 Assemblage et gros Wholesale 10 000 - 40 000 40 000 Retail & wholesale 5 000 - 10 000 Assembly & wholesale sources: OECD/SWAC (2013), Settlement, Market and Food Security; FewsNet (2012); FAO AgroMaps (2012); Bricas et al. (2009); West Africa Trade Hub (2011)

SAHELIAN MIGRATION Within the Region Map 9 Europe places of residence of sahelian emigrants, 2015 25% Mauritania Europe burkina faso and mali alone are Mauritania 25% Europe Cabo Verde 7% Cabo Verde Mali Europe 25% responsible for over 28% of West African Mauritania 14% senegal 46% maUritania: Mauritania CaboSenegal Verde EuropeMali Europe 586 000 EMIGRANTSCabo Verde Mauritania7% Europe emigrants. Along with Niger and Chad, they Senegal 119 000 EMIGRANTS43% Mauritania 25% 25% Cabo Verde 7% 46% Cabo Verde 14% Mali Gambia North Europe Gambia Senegal MauritaniaSenegal 8% 46% 14% are the countries whose migration trajec- 20% AmericaMauritania Mauritania 43% Mauritania Gambia7% North Cabo Verde GambiaCabo VerdeSenegalMali Mali CaboGuinea- Verde GuineaCabo VerdeSenegal Europe7% Europe8% 43% tories are most centered on neighbouring 20% America Gambia 14% 14% Bissau Gambia5% 46% North 46% Côte Guinea- Guinea 8% Senegal Senegal Senegal20% America d’Ivoire and nearby countries. Emigrants from Bissau Senegal5% 43% 43%Côte GuineaNorth Gambia 7% Gambia GambiaGuinea- 8% North Gambia d’Ivoire 20% America5% 8% 7% Côte Senegal and Mauritania are more oriented Bissau20% America Guinea- Guinea d’Ivoire Guinea- Guinea towards the rest of the world. Cabo Verde Bissau 5% Europe Côte 7% Bissau 5% Côte mali 10% Europe d’Ivoire has proportionately the largest number 10% 7% d’Ivoire 1.005 MILLION EMIGRANTS Europe bUrKina faso 7% of emigrants; its diaspora is larger than its Mauritania 10% Mauritania Europe 1.453 MILLION 6% 6% Burkina resident population. Seasonal migration Mali 10%MaliNiger EuropeNiger EMIGRANTS Burkina Mauritania 10% Faso Faso Senegal Senegal 8% 8% Benin during the lean season in Sahelian countries MauritaniaGambia 6% Mali BeninBurkina Gambia Burkina Burkina Niger Europe 6% Mauritania Faso Europe SenegalGuineaMali FasoNiger 8% BurkinaCôte Togo < 1% is impossible to accurately assess, but is Guinea Faso 6% Nigeria Côte Togo < 1% Gambia Côte Mali Fasod’Ivoire BurkinaBenin Senegal NigeriaBurkina8% Niger d’Ivoire Ghana Côte d’Ivoire 16% 91%GhanaBenin Faso Europe probably in the millions. It is an important Gambia SenegalGuineaBurkina 16%Faso 8% Côte Togo d’Ivoire 35% 91% Europe Benin< 1% Gambia Faso Nigeria Togod’Ivoire factor in food security since seasonal Guinea35% Côte Burkina Côte Ghana< 1% Europe Nigeria 16% Côte Guinead’Ivoire Faso d’Ivoire Ghana 91%Côte Togo 16% Europe < 1% migrants generate additional income and d’Ivoire 35% Nigeria 91% d’Ivoire Côte Ghana < 1% 35% 16%Europe Europe d’Ivoire < chad1% 91% relieve pressure on the environment. 35% Europe < 1% 208 000 EMIGRANTS Europe < 1% niger Europe Europe < 1% NigerEurope < 1% 370 000 EMIGRANTS < 1% Europe < 1% Chad Sudan Niger Europe < 1% Burkina < 1% 36% Faso Niger Chad Sudan NigerBenin Burkina 21% Nigeria Nigeria Chad 36% Sudan Côte Togo Chad Sudan 31% Niger 14% South Only values greater than 5% are represented. Faso d’IvoireBurkina18% Central 36%African 36% BurkinaBenin Ghana Sudan 14% Faso Cameroon RepublicChad Sudan Faso21% NigeriaBenin Nigeria 5% Côte TogoBenin Nigeria26% 36% 21% 31%NigeriaBurkina21% Nigeria Nigeria14% South 18%Côte Togo Central African d’IvoireCôte Togo Faso 31% 14% South Sudan South source: United Nations (2015), Ghana 31%18% Benin 14% CameroonCentral AfricanRepublicCongo Central African 14%d’Ivoire 18%d’Ivoire 5% Sudan Sudan Ghana Ghana 21% Nigeria Cameroon RepublicCameroonNigeria5% Republic Department of Economic and Social Aff airs, 14% 14%Côte Togo 26%5% 5% 31% 26% 14%26% Central African South Trends in International Migrant Stock d’Ivoire 18% Sudan Ghana Congo Cameroon Republic 14% Congo 5% 5% 26%Congo 26 Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues 5%© Food Crisis5% Prevention Network (RPCA) Congo 5% migration

Migrant remittances

Between 2005 and 2010, officially registered Figure 13 remittances from emigrants to ECOWAS Migrant remittances, % of GDP, 2014 countries increased, on average, by more than 8% per year to nearly USD 23 billion in 2010. 2015e USD million This is twice the amount of foreign investment and 5% of the regional GDP. Nigeria alone Liberia 693 accounts for 86% of these inflows. The Gambia 181 transfers come mainly from emigrants living Cabo Verde 201 in developed countries, but are also signi- Senegal 1 614 ficant in countries where the majority of the Togo 397 emigrants reside in West Africa - Togo and Mali 895 Mali, for example. These transfers have a documented impact on poverty reduction Guinea-Bissau 64 and inequality, as well as the food security Ghana 2008 of vulnerable households. Nigeria 20 658 Benin 304 Burkina Faso 396 Niger 146 Guinea 93 Sierra Leone 66 Côte d’Ivoire 385

e = estimates 5 10 15 20 25 % Source: World Bank (2016), Data on migration and remittances

hAlf A million Refugees IN CHAD AND NIGER

At the global level, forced displacement Map 10 hit a record high in 2015. According to the internally displaced persons (idps) in africa, 2015 UNHCR Global Trends 2015, some 65.3 million individuals were forcibly displaced worldwide as a result of persecution, conflict, generalised violence or human rights violations. This is 5.8 million more people than in 2014. Sub-Saharan Africa hosts about 29% of the world’s displaced people. In West Africa, forced displacement is a major concern around the Lake Chad basin. Violence and human rights abuses in northern Nigeria have left nearly 2.2 million people internally displaced. Over 200 000 others are sheltering in neighbouring Cameroun, Chad and Niger. Chad hosts NUMBER OF IDPs one out of two refugees in West Africa, representing a total of 370 000 refugees plus another 52 000 internally displaced persons 5 million (IDPs). Niger hosts some 125 000 refugees and 137 000 IDPs. At the end of 2015, Chad 1 million ranked fift h worldwide for its refugees/ inhabitants ratio, hosting 26 refugees per 1 000 inhabitants. 100 000

source: UNHCR (2016), Global Trends , Forced Displacement in 2015

At the CRossRoADs of fooD & seCuRity ChAllenges seCuRity thReAts ExACERBATE STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES

Niger, Chad and Mali are very fragile countries, Map 11 combining problems related to their refugees and internally displaced persons linked to current or recent conflicts high rates of population growth, poverty and food insecurity. security threats are exacerbating these structural weaknesses. In Sahelian countries, the insecurity-food complex must be addressed via a single, integrated approach. The Mauritania 35 000 Cabo Verde Malian refugees Mali prevention and management of food crises Niger 15 000 Malian refugees 60 000 should go hand in hand with the prevention 60 000 Chad Senegal Nigerian refugees 380 000 and management of conflicts and instability. IDPs 20 000 20 000 Gambia Sudanese Malian refugees Nigerian Achieving stabilisation through development refugees Burkina Faso refugees Guinea- Guinea 2 100 000 Benin must also integrate food resilience and the Bissau IDPs 100 000 Nigeria development of the food economy (pages Sierra Leone Côte Togo Central African Ghana refugees 18 and 19). d’Ivoire Liberia

INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDPs)

REFUGEE-HOSTINGInternally displaced persons AREA Refugee-hosting area source: UNHCR (2016), Global Trends , Forced Displacement in 2015

THE ExAMPLE OF noRth-eAsteRn nigeRiA

Of the 9.5 million people in need of food Map 12 and nutritional assistance in 2016, the food insecurityOctobre-décembre in north-eastern 2016 nigeria, october-december 2016 majority are located in the Lake Chad basin, where civil insecurity is disrupting Lake Abadam Chad markets and destroying the livelihoods Yusufari Yunusari Machina Mobbar Kukawa of local households. the islamist boko Nguru Karasuwa Guzamala Bade Borsari Mobbar haram insurgency is the main cause of Bade Geidam Nganzai Monguro Jakusko Marte acute malnutrition in this area and the Yobe Ngala Tarmuwa Magumeri Kala/ Fune Jere Mafa Nigerian government declared a nutritional Balge Nangere Dikwa Damaturu Kaga Maiduguru Potiskum emergency in the state of Borno in June 2016. Konduga Bama Fika Three million people were in crisis (phase 3), Gujba Borno Gwoza of which 1.86 million were internally displaced Gulani Damboa Biu Chibok Madagali Askira/Uba (IOM and NEMA, April 2016). This estimate Kwaya Michika Kusar Hawul Hong was later revised upwards and according to Bayo Mubi North Shani Girie Mubi South the Cadre harmonisé analysis, it is estimated Shelleng Maina Song at 4.4 million people for the period of LamurdeAdamawa June-August 2016. The situation remains Numan Gombi Demsa Yola North Phase 1: Minimal Yola South unclear due to the fact that many areas are Fufore Mayo- still inaccessible. Phase 2: Stressed Bel Jada

Phase 3: Crisis Ganye Phase 4: Emergency Teungo Phase 5: Famine

source: Analysis of the Cadre harmonisé conducted by three teams composed of government representatives, CILSS, FAO and Fews Net, October 2016.

30 Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA) At the crossroads of food & security challenges

The example of Niger

Map 13 Niger is now facing three threats. In the Niger: Internal fragilities & regional threats west, Niger faces the risk of destabilisation coming from northern Mali; in the south, the LIBYA influence of Boko Haram is growing, and in the north-east, the risks related to the war in Libya represents a serious cause for concern. ALGERIA A part of the population believes that their legitimate social requests – including those related to food security and resilience – are being relegated to the back burner because NIGER of security concerns. Arlit Kidal Saharan zone: less than 200 mm of rainfall per year; approximately 600 000 km² and Agadez MALI less than 0.5 million inhabitants in its Agadem Nigerien zone. Uranium mines and oil. CHAD

Sahel’s vulnerable zone: The inter-annual variation of the length of the rainy season Zinder Maradi exceeds 30%. Approximately 5 million Niamey Diffa rural inhabitants in its Nigerien zone, predominantly agro-pastoralists. Dosso Sokoto

Kano N’Djamena Area regularly faced with food & nutrition Maïduguri insecurity BOKO HARAM Conflict area Abuja Regional diffusion of instability Involuntary migration Source: OECD/SWAC (2014), An Atlas of the Sahara-Sahel:NIGERIA Geography, Economics and Security

The example of chad

The regional security environment is also Map 14 a concern for Chad, which has a significant Chad: Internal fragilities and regional threats security apparatus but is now suffering a sharp drop in its financial resources due to the fall Saharan zone: less than 200 mm of LIBYA rainfall per year; approximately in oil prices. Chad remains one of the poorest 700 000 km and less than 0.7 million inhabitants in its Chadian part. countries in the world where chronic food Sahel’s vulnerable zone: the inter- insecurity is a widespread issue for much of the annual variation of the length of the rainy season exceeds 30%; approxi- population. mately 2 million rural inhabitants in its Chadian part, predominantly Saharan zone: Less than 200 mm of rainfall per agro-pastoralists. year; approximately 700 000 km² and less than NIGER 0.7 million inhabitants in its Chadian zone. Faya Largeau Area regularly food and nutrition Fada insecure Sahel’s vulnerable zone: The inter-annual Conﬂict area variation of the length of the rainy season CHAD exceeds 30%; approximately 2 million rural Area of instability inhabitants in its Chadian zone, predominantly agro-pastoralists. Iriba Regional diffusion of instability

Mao Area regularly faced with food and nutrition Trafﬁcking (arms, drugs) Bol Abéché insecurity Oil ﬁeld Goz-Beïda SUDAN Pipeline Conflict area N’Djamena Mongo Area of instability Am Timan NIGERIA Bongor Regional diffusion of instability Pala Kelo Koumra Sarh Trafficking (arms, drugs) Moundou Doba Oil field CAMEROON CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Pipeline Source: OECD/SWAC (2014), An Atlas of the Sahara-Sahel: Geography, Economics and Security 32 Maps & Facts, No.2: Food Issues © Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA)

thRee PRioRities

FOOD CRISIS PRevention & mAnAgement Figure 14 The prevention and management of food and it has adopted the Charter for Food Crisis pregec cycle nutrition crises must remain public policy Prevention and Management (PREGEC Charter) priorities, whatever their cause (climate shocks, and uses common tools such as the Cadre mARCh price volatility, economic recession, political harmonisé to assess food and nutrition situation. technical meeting APRil • Final assessment of the Restricted RPCA tensions, conflict, pandemics) and wherever the network must adapt to the increasing agricultural campaign at the meeting national and regional levels, 6 in preparation for the RPCA • Recommendations they strike (rural and urban areas, migration complexity of the underlying factors meeting in April for policy makers • Advocacy and information- routes, refugee camps and refugee-hosting of food crises, including conflicts. sharing with representatives from OECD member areas). Prevention and management eff orts It should also help Members take DeCembeR 5 countries must be co-ordinated at the regional level, failing into account the specific food RPCA annual meeting • Provisional assessment of which – for example – a crisis alert could be vulnerabilities of urban areas. the agricultural campaign • Strategic RPCA orientations June and priority areas of work launched by a government according to criteria • Recommendations for technical meeting decision makers PRegeC • Launch of the agricultural diff erent from those used in other countries. campaign • Preparation for 4 CYCLE 1 monitoring the rainy season n • Review of agro-meteorological o s & climatic forecasts a e • Assessment of West Africa has an advantage over other African s an recommendations le regions. Created more than 30 years ago, the novembeR 3 implemented since April Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA) unites technical meeting • Harvest outlook all stakeholders – national, • Cereal production & food security and nutrition 2 outlook in preparation sePtembeR regional and international “the prevention and management of the RPCA annual – under the political meeting technical meeting of food and nutrition crises must • Provisional assessment of the agricultural campaign leadership of ECOWAS • Harvest scenarios remain public policy priorities, • Action plan for at-risk areas and UEMOA. Co-ordinated • Monitoring of actions conducted jointly by CILSS and the whatever their cause.” since March SWAC/OECD Secretariat,

Resilience

When a crisis occurs, it is counter-productive and projects contributing to resilience. AGIR The RPCA is the forum for dialogue among to separate humanitarian assistance from the is, therefore, a tool to improve the efficiency its stakeholders (page 33). The SWAC/OECD fight against endemic poverty and famine. When of collective action. The Alliance is under the Secretariat contributes to the management, faced with a crisis of any kind (climatic, economic, political leadership of ECOWAS and UEMOA promotion and methodological reflections of social, security), the weakest are also the most and receives technical support from CILSS. the Alliance. vulnerable. Focus must therefore be placed on strengthening their resilience. Increasing Map 15 the resilience of millions of people is a PRIORITÉSFormulation RÉSILIENCE process for PAYS the N(PRP-AGIR)ational Resilience Priorities (NRP-AGIR) long-term challenge that is complex by nature Alliance globale pour la résilience - Sahel et Afrique de l’Ouest because there are often many intersecting November 2016 causes. The challenge cannot be met without a multisectoral approach based on a political partnership that engages West Africans and Mauritania their partners. This is the ambition of the Global Cabo Verde Mali Alliance for Resilience (AGIR) – Sahel and West Niger Chad Africa. AGIR is not just another initiative Senegal or an additional financial opportunity, Gambia Burkina Faso Guinea- but it allows food resilience allies to unite Bissau Guinea Benin Nigeria around objectives, approaches, tools and a Sierra Leone Côte Togo mutually-agreed upon results framework. d’Ivoire Ghana Liberia The Alliance provides the opportunity for all involved countries to develop a national NRP-AGIR validated framework, called NRP-AGIR (National Resilience NRP-AGIR currently under validation Priorities). The mission of this framework is to NRP-AGIR process launched bring together all initiatives, programmes

gRoWth & emPloyment

Economic growth - and its corollary employment Cross-cutting and multi-sectoral strategies first and foremost, on the needs of stakeholders - is a constant of many West African public are needed to enhance the food economy’s and West African professional organisations. policies and most international strategies potential. These strategies should be based, for the region. How to find jobs for millions of unemployed youth? How to make the local Figure 15 economy more attractive than migration? How food value chain to give hope to young people who maybe be AGRIBUSINESS tempted by crime? How to develop a more inclusive and less volatile economy than one EQUIPMENT that is based on the exportation of oil, gas, minerals and raw agricultural products? These modern issues are addressed by sector (primary, secondary, tertiary) and by segment (rural/ INPUT AGRICULTURE FOOD FOOD PROCESSING RETAIL urban areas, informal/formal sector). The most FOR HUMAN common approach is to prioritise agriculture NUTRITION

(which is oft en wrongly considered to be equal to traditional the whole rural zone). A more systemic analysis NON NUTRITION NON FOOD USAGE PROCESSING shows that the food economy - rural and urban, FOOD VALUE CHAIN primary, secondary and tertiary, formal and AGRO -INDUSTRY informal - is much larger than the agricultural Length of the value chain economy alone and has the potential to create [the number of production stages involved] more growth and more jobs. Since it focuses source: Allen, T. and P. Heinrigs (2016), “Emerging Opportunities in the West African Food Economy”, on the domestic market, which has a high West African Papers, No. 1, OECD Publishing, Paris. growth rate, it is not as volatile and should be the keystone of economic policies.

References

This booklet draws on the publications and work conducted by the Sahel and West Africa Club Secretariat (SWAC/OECD):

• The collection of studies carried out since the 1990s on • Other studies published within the West African Studies series: settlement and demographic trends in West Africa, notably Regional Atlas on West Africa (2008), West African Mobility the West Africa Long-Term Perspective Study (WALTPS), and Migration Policies of OECD Countries (2008), Regional OECD Publishing (1998); Challenges of West African Migration (2009), Conflict over • Settlement, Market and Food Security, West African Studies, Ressources and Terrorism (2013); OECD Publishing (2013); • “Emerging Opportunities in the West African Food Economy”, • The Africapolis online database (OECD.Stat); West African Papers, No. 1, OECD Publishing (2016); • An Atlas of the Sahara-Sahel: Geography, Economics and • The Maps & Facts series published within the SWAC NewsBrief; Security, West African Studies, OECD Publishing (2014); • Work conducted by the Food Crisis Prevention Network (RPCA).

Maps & Facts, No.1, November 2015 Climate, Climate Change & Resilience

SAHEL AND WEST AFRICA Club Secretariat UEMOA