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Community Planning and Capacity Building in Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria Predisaster Condition, Hurricane Damage, and Courses of Action

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Community Planning and Capacity Building in Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria Predisaster Condition, Hurricane Damage, and Courses of Action Community Planning and Capacity Building in Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria Predisaster Condition, Hurricane Damage, and Courses of Action VIVIAN L. TOWE, ELIZABETH L. PETRUN SAYERS, EDWARD W. CHAN, ALICE Y. KIM, ASHLYN TOM, WING YI CHAN, JEFFERSON P. MARQUIS, MICHAEL W. ROBBINS, LISA SAUM-MANNING, MARGARET M. WEDEN, LESLIE ADRIENNE PAYNE HS AC HOMELAND SECURITY OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS CENTER An FFRDC operated by the RAND Corporation under contract with DHS rr_2598_cover_v7.indd 1,3 8/3/20 8:54 AM Published in 2020 Preface On August 8, 2018, the government of Puerto Rico submitted to Congress its economic and disaster recovery plan, as required by the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018. Under contract with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) provided substantial support in developing the plan by soliciting and integrating inputs from a wide variety of stakeholders, contributing analysis where needed, and assisting with drafting the plan. The plan included an overview of damage and needs, courses of action (COAs) to meet those needs, costs of the COAs, and potential funding mechanisms for those costs. This detailed volume, released by HSOAC, is intended to support federal agencies evaluating and funding recovery actions for the Community Planning and Capacity Building (CPCB) sector. The purpose of this document is to provide decisionmakers greater detail on the conditions in Puerto Rico prior to the 2017 hurricane season, impact from Hurricanes Irma and Maria, COAs that were identified to help the sector (and, more broadly, Puerto Rico) recover in a resilient manner, potential funding mechanisms, and considerations for implementers as they move forward. HSOAC plans to release similar detailed volumes for other sectors engaged as part of recovery planning. This document will likely also be of interest to other stakeholders funding or implementing recovery activities in Puerto Rico, including commonwealth and local agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector. Furthermore, this body of material contributes to the larger literature about disaster recovery and resilience and may be of interest to other communities planning for or recovering from similar disasters. This research was sponsored by FEMA and conducted within the Strategy, Policy, and Operations Program of the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center, a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC). More information about HSOAC’s contribution to planning for recovery in Puerto Rico, along with links to other reports being published as part of this series, can be found at www.rand.org/hsoac/puerto-rico-recovery. About the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center The Homeland Security Act of 2002 (Section 305 of Public Law 107-296, as codified at 6 U.S.C. § 185), authorizes the Secretary of Homeland Security, acting through the Under Secretary for Science and Technology, to establish one or more FFRDCs to provide independent analysis of homeland security issues. RAND Corporation operates HSOAC as an FFRDC for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) under contract HSHQDC-16-D-00007. iii The HSOAC FFRDC provides the government with independent and objective analyses and advice in core areas important to the department in support of policy development, decisionmaking, alternative approaches, and new ideas on issues of importance. The HSOAC FFRDC also works with and supports other federal, state, local, tribal, and public- and private- sector organizations that make up the homeland security enterprise. The HSOAC FFRDC’s research is undertaken by mutual consent with DHS and is organized as a set of discrete tasks. This report presents the results of research and analysis conducted under Task Order 70FBR218F00000032, “Puerto Rico Economic and Disaster Recovery Plan: Integration and Analytic Support.” The results presented in this report do not necessarily reflect official DHS opinion or policy. For more information on HSOAC, see www.rand.org/hsoac. For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2598. iv Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ xvi Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. xviii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Research Questions ..................................................................................................................... 2 Organization of This Report ....................................................................................................... 3 2. Data and Methods ....................................................................................................................... 4 Qualitative Data Collection ........................................................................................................ 4 Quantitative Data Collection .................................................................................................... 10 Overcoming Challenges to Data Collection ............................................................................. 15 Data and Methods Summary ..................................................................................................... 17 3. Puerto Rico Communities Before and After the Hurricanes .................................................... 18 Preexisting Conditions .............................................................................................................. 18 Hurricane Impact on Communities ........................................................................................... 26 Community Perceptions and Communication During Response and Recovery ...................... 30 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 45 4. A Strategy for Recovery in Community Planning and Capacity Building ............................... 48 Emergency Preparedness .......................................................................................................... 48 Communication ......................................................................................................................... 50 Recovery Planning .................................................................................................................... 51 Research and Training .............................................................................................................. 54 Engagement with Nongovernmental Organizations ................................................................. 55 Closing ...................................................................................................................................... 55 Appendix A: Community Planning and Capacity Building Courses of Action ........................... 57 Appendix B: Additional Tables/Figures ..................................................................................... 113 References ................................................................................................................................... 114 v Figures Figure 2.1. Puerto Rico Municipalities Where Resident Focus Groups and Subject-Matter Expert Interviews Were Conducted, April and May 2018 ..................................................... 5 Figure 3.1. Population Pyramids for Puerto Rico in 1980 and 2016 ............................................ 20 Figure 3.2. Number of Municipalities Reporting Adequacy of the Implementation of Disaster Preparedness Plan Components ............................................................................................ 24 Figure 3.3. Puerto Rican Municipalities by Social Vulnerability Level ....................................... 25 Figure 3.4. Puerto Rican Municipalities by Level of Housing Damage from 2017 Hurricanes ... 27 Figure 3.5. Maps by Municipality of Annual Rates of Outmigration During 2012–2016 (Top Panel) and Estimated Rates of Displacement Due to Hurricane Maria (Bottom Panel) ...... 28 Figure 3.6. Key Theme Counts in Puerto Rico Qualitative Data: Proportion of Times Immediate Response Themes Mentioned (Red) vs. Recovery Themes (Blue) Approximately Six Months Posthurricanes .......................................................................... 32 Figure 3.7. Municipal Staff Community Engagement Priorities .................................................. 44 vi Tables Table 2.1. Description of Community Workshop Activities .......................................................... 8 Table 3.1. Displacement and Prehurricane Outmigration Rates by Social Vulnerability and Damage Levels .....................................................................................................................
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