DOCSLIB.ORG

Hurricane Maria Event Recap Report

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Hurricane Maria Event Recap Report Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting Hurricane Maria Event Recap Report March 2018 Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources. Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 Meteorological Recap 4 Event Details 11 Lesser Antilles 11 Greater Antilles 14 Energy Impacts 20 Transportation Impacts 22 Environmental Impacts 24 Historical Comparison 25 Impact Forecasting Reconnaissance Trip 26 Impact Forecasting: Modeled Results 29 Financial Losses 30 Appendix A 31 Appendix B 32 Appendix C 33 Appendix D 34 Contact Information 37 Hurricane Maria 2 Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting Executive Summary Hurricane Maria became the costliest hurricane to track across the Caribbean on record, and the second- costliest storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The powerful system left catastrophic damage and human impact on the island of Puerto Rico and elsewhere in the Caribbean, including Dominica and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Extended power outages and destroyed infrastructure in Puerto Rico led to significant business interruption. The total economic cost of Maria was roughly estimated around USD65 billion. Public and private insurers cited payouts around USD27 billion. Maria was officially recognized as a Tropical Storm by the National Hurricane Center on September 16, 2017. The storm tracked through an area with extremely warm ocean waters and low wind shear, reaching Category 1 intensity by September 18. In a span of only 24 hours, Maria underwent an extremely rapid intensification cycle to reach Category 5 intensity, which was shortly followed by a direct landfall on the island of Dominica with devastating effects. In the following hours and days, Maria tracked closely to the areas previously affected by Hurricane Irma. Despite undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, the storm did not weaken during the regeneration process and reach its peak intensity with sustained winds of 175 mph (280 kph). In the morning hours of September 20, Maria made landfall in southeastern Puerto Rico as a Category 4 hurricane after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. This made Maria the strongest storm to come ashore on the island since 1928. It would become the costliest disaster in the history of Puerto Rico. After exiting the island, Maria took a turn to the north and did not directly affect the mainland United States. However, some impacts resulting from high surf was felt in several coastal Atlantic states. A combination of extreme wind speeds, dangerous storm surge and torrential rainfall resulted in substantial damage on several Caribbean islands. Hurricane Maria was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall in Dominica, a small Caribbean nation. Extreme conditions resulted in damage or destruction of 98 percent of buildings on the island. Widespread damage in all sectors of the economy occurred and more than 30 people lost their lives. Impacts of lesser degree were also felt on the neighboring islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe. Widespread damage was sustained by the U.S. and the British Virgin Islands, which were previously affected by Hurricane Irma. Maria’s impact in Puerto Rico was devastating and resulted in the worst natural catastrophe to ever impact the island. Official statistics estimated that at least 55 people had died and a minimum of 250,000 homes had been severely damaged or destroyed across the island. The catastrophe also highlighted the issue of a significant portion of residential property being built illegally. A majority of residents did not own hazard insurance and the vast majority of the insured loss in Puerto Rico was sustained by the commercial sector. Prolonged power and water outages impacted the entire island months after the catastrophe and led to major business interruption. Apart from widespread wind damage, coastal and inland flooding ensued and rivers crested at record levels. Hurricane Maria became one of the costliest natural catastrophes ever recorded globally. It became the eighth-costliest event in terms of economic loss, and sixth from the insurance perspective. Together with Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, Maria substantially contributed to a high economic toll during the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Total economic losses are estimated at USD65 billion, with the insurance sector covering USD27 billion. The vast majority of the Maria’s impact was recorded in Puerto Rico. Hurricane Maria 3 Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting Meteorological Recap The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began watching an organizing cluster of thunderstorms on September 14 (00:00 UTC) after it had exited the west coast of Africa a few days prior. The agency initially gave the tropical wave a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next five days. However, the system began to organize more quickly than initially thought and the NHC declared the system Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen on September 16 (15:00 UTC). During this time, initial tropical storm watches were issued for parts of the Leeward Islands. (Beginning in 2017, the NHC started using the term ‘Potential Tropical Cyclone’ to describe a disturbance that is not yet a tropical cyclone, but poses the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.) The NHC would officially deem the disturbance a Tropical Depression on September 16 (18:00 UTC) and Tropical Storm Maria just three hours later. The storm continued to get better organized while tracking west-northwestward through the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. Steady intensification occurred as Maria moved through an area with minimal vertical wind shear and extremely warm ocean waters. The cyclone would officially reach hurricane intensity with 75 mph (120 kph) winds on September 17 (21:00 UTC) while the outer fringes of the system started to enter the Leeward Islands. Maria’s explosive 24-hour intensification (Source: NASA, CSU) Hurricane Maria 4 Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting By September 18, Maria was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph (130 kph) sustained winds. During the next 24 hours, it would undergo explosive rapid intensification to Category 5 intensity. During the 24 hour span between September 18 (00:00 UTC) and September 19 (00:00 UTC), the NHC projected that Maria would undergo intensification with a likelihood of becoming a major hurricane (Category 3 or greater) during the next 24 hours. One of the more trusted statistically-based intensity models – known as the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index – gave a 51 percent chance of rapid intensification by 30 knots during the upcoming 24 hour timeframe. Maria would eventually intensify by 70 knots in the 24 hour stretch and reaching an incredible intensity of 160 mph (260 kph) while nearing the island of Dominica. The minimum central pressure would fall from 982 millibars to 925 hours during this time as well; further signifying Maria’s explosive growth. Maria landfall in Dominica (Source: Meteo France) Maria would officially make landfall in Dominica at approximately 9:15 PM local time on September 18 (01:35 UTC September 19) as a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph (260 kph) winds. This is the first time on record that a Category 5 storm has made landfall in Dominica. After landfall, Maria continued to track west-northwestward with slight wobbles as the system initially started to show signs of an eyewall replacement cycle. This was significant given that the storm had a small hurricane wind field, with hurricane-force winds only extending roughly 30 miles (45 kilometers) from the center. Given the small wind radii, this meant that any slight wobble could have a major impact in terms of wind-driven damage across the rest of the Caribbean. Hurricane warnings were in effect for much of the northern Caribbean – including the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and other small islands in the Lesser Antilles – on September 19 as Maria moved closer to impacting areas only recently devastated by Hurricane Irma. After moving away from Dominica, Maria briefly weakened below Category 5 intensity with 155 mph (250 kph) winds, but would regain Category 5 strength in less than four hours while traversing very warm waters in the Caribbean. During the day on September 19, Maria continued to track west-northwestward towards the Virgin Islands (British and U.S.) and Puerto Rico. The system maintained Category 5 strength with 160 mph (260 kph) winds as large swells began to batter many islands. An eyewall replacement cycle did commence as the hurricane and tropical storm-force wind field radii began to expand. However, similarly to Hurricane Irma, Maria did not weaken during the regeneration process. In fact, pressure levels continued to drop and wind speeds slightly increased during the day. The new peak intensity was 175 mph (280 kph) as minimum central pressure plunged to 909 millibars. Maria’s eyewall passing USVI, September 20 (Source: NOAA) Hurricane Maria 5 Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting Maria officially made landfall in Puerto Rico at around 06:15 AM AST on September 20 (10:15 UTC) as the center of its circulation crossed the southeastern shores of the island near Yabucoa, located approximately 30 miles (48 kilometers) SSE of San Juan. Maria made landfall as an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm with 155 mph (250 kph) sustained winds, shortly after being downgraded from the highest category. This was the strongest landfall in Puerto Rico since 1928 and the first Category 4 storm to directly affect the island Maria at Puerto Rico landfall, thermal satellite image (Source: NASA, CSU) since 1932. The center of Maria’s circulation exited Puerto Rico at around 02:00 PM AST (06:00 UTC). After spending roughly four hours over land, it emerged in the Atlantic as a weakened Category 3 strength hurricane with sustained wind speeds of 115 mph (185 kph). Maria continued to bring torrential rainfall to Puerto Rico as it tracked towards the Dominican Republic that prompted extensive flash flooding.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • SUPPORTING RESILIENT RECONSTRUCTION in DOMINICA Building Back Better for a Resilient Future
    SUPPORTING RESILIENT RECONSTRUCTION IN DOMINICA Building back better for a resilient future AT A GLANCE Country Dominica Damage to housing across all parishes following Hurricane Maria Risks Hurricanes; Floods; Landslides; Earthquakes Area of Engagement Enabling resilient recovery By improving the uptake of resilient building practices, Dominica can limit the damage from natural hazards. Data source: Hurricane Maria Post-Disaster Needs Assessment DOMINICA’S VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL HAZARDS Dominica is located within the Atlantic hurricane belt and SHARING RESULTS, LEVERAGING is extremely vulnerable to high-intensity weather events FINANCING AND STARTING TO such as high winds, excess rainfall and hurricanes. Physical REBUILD development in Dominica is concentrated along narrow coastal areas, particularly in the south and west. Housing is Following both Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Erika, not built to withstand extreme natural hazards, with wood and Dominica conducted Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNAs), galvanized sheeting being most common for roofing and with with support from the ACP-EU NDRR Program*, which is few confined masonry buildings. managed by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the World Bank. On September 18, 2017, Hurricane Maria hit Dominica with catastrophic effects. Hurricane Maria was one of the most The Hurricane Maria PDNA identified housing as the most rapidly intensifying storms in recent history, leaving Dominica affected sector and one of the most important and challenging exposed to winds, flash floods and landslides. The impacts of areas for recovery. Building on the recommendations of the Hurricane Maria were severe both for the country’s economy Hurricane Maria PDNA, the ACP-EU NDRR Program launched as well as the human development of its citizens, and affected the “Enhancing Resilient Reconstruction in Dominica” project.
    [Show full text]
  • Intense Hurricane Activity Over the Past 1500 Years at South Andros
    RESEARCH ARTICLE Intense Hurricane Activity Over the Past 1500 Years 10.1029/2019PA003665 at South Andros Island, The Bahamas Key Points: E. J. Wallace1 , J. P. Donnelly2 , P. J. van Hengstum3,4, C. Wiman5, R. M. Sullivan4,2, • Sediment cores from blue holes on 4 2 6 7 Andros Island record intense T. S. Winkler , N. E. d'Entremont , M. Toomey , and N. Albury hurricane activity over the past 1 millennium and a half Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program in Oceanography, Woods • Multi‐decadal shifts in Intertropical Hole, Massachusetts, USA, 2Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Convergence Zone position and Hole, Massachusetts, USA, 3Department of Marine Sciences, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, Texas, USA, volcanic activity modulate the 4Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA, 5School of Earth and Sustainability, hurricane patterns observed on 6 Andros Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA, U.S. Geological Survey, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, • Hurricane patterns on Andros Reston, Virginia, USA, 7National Museum of The Bahamas, Nassau, The Bahamas match patterns from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico but are anti‐phased with patterns from New Abstract Hurricanes cause substantial loss of life and resources in coastal areas. Unfortunately, England historical hurricane records are too short and incomplete to capture hurricane‐climate interactions on ‐ ‐ ‐ Supporting Information: multi decadal and longer timescales. Coarse grained, hurricane induced deposits preserved in blue holes • Supporting Information S1 in the Caribbean can provide records of past hurricane activity extending back thousands of years. Here we present a high resolution record of intense hurricane events over the past 1500 years from a blue hole on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank.
    [Show full text]
  • AFTER the STORM: WHY ART STILL MATTERS Amanda Coulson Executive Director, NAGB
    Refuge. Contents An open call exhibition of Bahamian art following Hurricane Dorian. Publication Design: Ivanna Gaitor Photography: Jackson Petit Copyright: The National Art Gallery of The Bahamas (NAGB) 8. Director’s Foreword by Amanda Coulson © 2020 The National Art Gallery of The Bahamas 16. Curator’s Note by Holly Bynoe West and West Hill Streets Nassau, N.P. 23. Writers: Essays/Poems The Bahamas Tel: (242) 328-5800 75. Artists: Works/Plates Email: [email protected] Website: nagb.org.bs 216. Acknowledgements ISBN: 978-976-8221-16-2 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording or any information storage and retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the National Art Gallery of The Bahamas. Cover: Mystery in da Mangroves, 2019 (New Providence) Lemero Wright Acrylic on canvas 48” x 60” Collection of the artist Pages 6–7: Visitor viewing the artwork “Specimen” by Cydne Coleby. 6 7 AFTER THE STORM: WHY ART STILL MATTERS Amanda Coulson Executive Director, NAGB Like everybody on New Providence and across the other islands of our archipelago, all of the there, who watched and imagined their own future within these new climatic landscapes. team members at the National Art Gallery of The Bahamas (NAGB) watched and waited with a rock in their bellies and their hearts already broken, as the storm ground slowly past the islands In addition to conceiving this particular show “Refuge,” in order to create space for artists to of Abaco and Grand Bahama.
    [Show full text]
  • UB Powerpoint Template
    converge.colorado.edu CONVERGE ethical, coordinated, and scientifically rigorous social science, engineering, and interdisciplinary extreme events research Lori Peek Principal Investigator, CONVERGE, SSEER, and ISEEER Director, Natural Hazards Center Professor, Department of Sociology University of Colorado Boulder Session 2: Collecting, Managing, and Archiving Social and Behavioral Science Data Describe opportunities for identifying and coordinating social science researchers so that we can best share information and publish our data as well as data collection protocols using DOIs, repositories, etc. Discuss some of the overarching challenges and concerns with sharing social science data, such as privacy, data management plans and related IRB policies, duplication vs. replication, etc. converge.colorado.edu 4 Things converge.colorado.edu 1. NSF has funded the CONVERGE initiative converge.colorado.edu Why CONVERGE? Why CONVERGE? • identify and coordinate researchers and research teams; • advance hazards and disaster research; • encourage the publication of data and data collection instruments and protocols (DesignSafe Cyberinfrastructure + CONVERGE). • support and accelerate training and mentoring; • fund virtual reconnaissance, field research, and the development of novel research instruments and data collection protocols; • accelerate the development of mobile applications for social science data collection (NHERI RAPID); Why CONVERGE? 2. NSF Supports Extreme Events Research (EER) Networks converge.colorado.edu Why the EER’s? Disciplinary
    [Show full text]
  • HAITI COUNTRY READER TABLE of CONTENTS Merritt N. Cootes 1932
    HAITI COUNTRY READER TABLE OF CONTENTS Merritt N. Cootes 1932 Junior Officer, Port-au-Prince 1937-1940 Vice Consul, Port-au-Prince Henry L. T. Koren 1948-1951 Administrative Officer, Port-au-Prince Slator Clay Blackiston, Jr. 1950-1952 Economic Officer, Port-au-Prince Milton Barall 1954-1956 Deputy Chief of Mission, Port-au-Prince Raymond E. Chambers 1955-1957 Deputy Director of Binational Center, USIA, Port-au-Prince Edmund Murphy 1961-1963 Public Affairs Office, USIA, Port-au-Prince Jack Mendelsohn 1964-1966 Consular/Political Officer, Port-au-Prince Claude G. Ross 1967-1969 Ambassador, Haiti John R. Burke 1970-1972 Deputy Chief of Mission, Port-au-Prince Harry E. Mattox 1970-1973 Economic Officer, Port-au-Prince Robert S. Steven 1971-1973 Special Assistant to Under Secretary of Management, Department of State, Washington, DC Jon G. Edensword 1972-1973 Visa Officer, Port-au-Prince Michael Norton 1972-1980 Radio News Reporter, Haiti Keith L. Wauchope 1973-1974 State Department Haiti Desk Officer, Washington, DC Scott Behoteguy 1973-1977 Mission Director, USAID, Haiti Wayne White 1976-1978 Consular Officer, Port-au-Prince Lawrence E. Harrison 1977-1979 USAID Mission Director, Port-au-Prince William B. Jones 1977-1980 Ambassador, Haiti Anne O. Cary 1978-1980 Economic/Commercial Officer, Port-au- Prince Ints M. Silins 1978-1980 Political Officer, Port-au-Prince Scott E. Smith 1979-1981 Head of Project Development Office, USAID, Port-au-Prince Henry L. Kimelman 1980-1981 Ambassador, Haiti David R. Adams 1981-1984 Mission Director, USAID, Haiti Clayton E. McManaway, Jr. 1983-1986 Ambassador, Haiti Jon G.
    [Show full text]
  • Persistent Hydrological Consequences of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico
    RESEARCH LETTER Persistent Hydrological Consequences of Hurricane 10.1029/2018GL081591 Maria in Puerto Rico Special Section: P. W. Miller1,2 , A. Kumar1, T. L. Mote1 , F. D. S. Moraes1 , and D. R. Mishra1 The Three Major Hurricanes of 2017: Harvey, Irma and Maria 1Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA, 2Now at Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA Key Points: • Landscape vegetation metrics for Puerto Rico remained depressed Abstract In September 2017, Hurricane Maria severely defoliated Puerto Rico's landscape, coinciding below pre‐Maria values for with a series of persistent hydrological consequences involving the atmospheric, terrestrial, and marine approximately two months after components of the water cycle. During the defoliated period, the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure landfall 2 2 2 • Cloud and precipitation activity more strongly explained daily cloud activity (R PRE = 0.02; R POST = 0.40) and precipitation (R PRE = 0.19; demonstrated a stronger 2 R POST = 0.33) than before landfall, indicating that post‐Maria land‐atmosphere interactions were relationship to the atmospheric comparatively muted, with similar precipitation patterns also found following Hurricanes Hugo (1989) and thermodynamic profile during the defoliated period Georges (1998). Meanwhile, modeled post‐Maria runoff exceeded statistical expectations given the magnitude • Subsurface runoff responses to of contemporaneous precipitation. Enhanced runoff also coincided with greater sediment loads in nearshore rainfall and coastal suspended waters, increasing sediment content greater than twofold. This study offers a holistic narrative of sediment values remained elevated for two and four months, hydrospheric disturbance and recovery, whereby the instantaneous, large‐scale removal of vegetation is respectively accompanied by hydrologic changes “upstream” in the atmosphere and “downstream” in rivers and estuaries.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Damage Detection on Four Major Caribbean Islands T ⁎ Kirsten M
    Remote Sensing of Environment 229 (2019) 1–13 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Remote Sensing of Environment journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rse Hurricane damage detection on four major Caribbean islands T ⁎ Kirsten M. de Beursa, , Noel S. McThompsona, Braden C. Owsleya, Geoffrey M. Henebryb,c a Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, United States of America b Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, United States of America c Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, United States of America ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: Tropical cyclones are natural events that transform into natural disasters as they approach and reach land. In Hurricanes 2017 alone, tropical cyclones caused an estimated $215 billion in damage. While MODIS data are regularly used Droughts in the analysis of hurricanes and typhoons, damage studies typically focus on just a few events without providing MODIS a comprehensive overview and comparison across events. The MODIS record is now sufficiently long to enable Disturbance standardization in time, allowing us to extend previously developed disturbance methodology and to remove Tasseled Cap dependency on land cover datasets. We apply this new approach to detect the impact of both droughts and hurricanes on the four largest Caribbean islands since 2001. We find that the percentage of disturbed land on the four islands varies from approximately 0–50% between 2001 and 2017, with the highest percentages coinciding with major droughts in Cuba, and Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. We demonstrate that (1) Hurricane Maria resulted in significant disturbance across 50% of Puerto Rico (4549 km2), and (2) gradual recovery started about 2.5 months after the hurricane hit.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane & Tropical Storm
    5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard.
    [Show full text]
  • ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005
    MARCH 2008 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1109 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005 JOHN L. BEVEN II, LIXION A. AVILA,ERIC S. BLAKE,DANIEL P. BROWN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, RICHARD D. KNABB,RICHARD J. PASCH,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 2 November 2006, in final form 30 April 2007) ABSTRACT The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, includ- ing 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina— the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over $100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record. 1. Introduction intervals for all tropical and subtropical cyclones with intensities of 34 kt or greater; Bell et al. 2000), the 2005 By almost all standards of measure, the 2005 Atlantic season had a record value of about 256% of the long- hurricane season was the most active of record.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Andrew in Florida: Dynamics of a Disaster ^
    Hurricane Andrew in Florida: Dynamics of a Disaster ^ H. E. Willoughby and P. G. Black Hurricane Research Division, AOML/NOAA, Miami, Florida ABSTRACT Four meteorological factors aggravated the devastation when Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida: completed replacement of the original eyewall by an outer, concentric eyewall while Andrew was still at sea; storm translation so fast that the eye crossed the populated coastline before the influence of land could weaken it appreciably; extreme wind speed, 82 m s_1 winds measured by aircraft flying at 2.5 km; and formation of an intense, but nontornadic, convective vortex in the eyewall at the time of landfall. Although Andrew weakened for 12 h during the eyewall replacement, it contained vigorous convection and was reintensifying rapidly as it passed onshore. The Gulf Stream just offshore was warm enough to support a sea level pressure 20-30 hPa lower than the 922 hPa attained, but Andrew hit land before it could reach this potential. The difficult-to-predict mesoscale and vortex-scale phenomena determined the course of events on that windy morning, not a long-term trend toward worse hurricanes. 1. Introduction might have been a harbinger of more devastating hur- ricanes on a warmer globe (e.g., Fisher 1994). Here When Hurricane Andrew smashed into South we interpret Andrew's progress to show that the ori- Florida on 24 August 1992, it was the third most in- gins of the disaster were too complicated to be ex- tense hurricane to cross the United States coastline in plained by thermodynamics alone. the 125-year quantitative climatology.
    [Show full text]
  • Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
    FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book.
    [Show full text]
  • Storm Modification Although Experts in the Meteorological Field Aren’T Enthusiastic About These Ideas Due to the Inconclusive Results from Project Stormfury
    Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Submitted by: Greg Machos Webmaster/Owner www.hurricaneville.com Submitted to: Dr. Stephan Nelson Director of Atmospheric Science National Science Foundation Room 775 4201 Wilson Boulevard Arlington, VA 22230 April 27, 2001 Final Proposal for Business and Professional Writing If found, please return to: Mark Waren Department of English Murray Hall, Room 032 College Avenue Campus, Rutgers University i ABSTRACT This proposal is for a research study that will attempt to combine the best elements of both the federal government and private industry projects on hurricane intensification and modification. There will be a difference in the way a hurricane will be attacked. Rather than trying to attack it through seeding its inner core, this proposal will try to use wind shear at the upper levels to destroy the storm’s vertical structure. Past research has shown that work in this area of study has had positive impacts on hurricane forecasting that ultimately saved lives. Furthermore, technology has improved significantly over the last twenty years and with the tremendous strides made in weather forecasting over the past century, now may be a great time to revisit this kind of research again. Coastal communities in the eastern half of the United States as well as many underdeveloped countries in the Caribbean and Central America are more vulnerable than ever to a major hurricane like Hurricane Andrew in 1992 or Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Hurricane Andrew caused approximately $27 billion dollars in damage after making landfall in South Florida while Hurricane Mitch left an estimated 11,000 people dead from heavy rains over a period of several days.
    [Show full text]