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Trends in Crashing Trends in crashing Communications Committee Meeting Insurance Information Institute Washington, D.C. ● June 14, 2015 Matt Moore, Vice President iihs.org IIHS is an independent, nonprofit scientific and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries and property damage — from crashes on the nation’s roads. HLDI shares this mission by analyzing insurance data representing human and economic losses from crashes and other events related to vehicle ownership. Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers. Member groups Acceptance Insurance Gainsco Insurance Oregon Mutual Insurance ACE Private Risk Services GEICO Corporation Pekin Insurance Affirmative Insurance The General Insurance PEMCO Insurance Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Plymouth Rock Assurance Alfa Insurance Goodville Mutual Casualty Company Progressive Insurance Allstate Insurance Group Grange Insurance PURE Insurance American Family Mutual Insurance Hallmark Financial Services The Responsive Auto Insurance Company American National Hanover Insurance Group Rockingham Group Ameriprise Auto & Home Haulers Insurance Company Safe Auto Insurance Company Amica Mutual Insurance Company The Hartford Safeco Insurance Auto Club Enterprises Horace Mann Insurance Companies Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company Auto Club Group ICW Group SECURA Insurance Auto-Owners Insurance Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company Sentry Insurance Aviva Insurance Indiana Farmers Mutual Insurance Company Shelter Insurance Bankers Insurance Group Infinity Property & Casualty Sompo Japan Insurance Company of America Bitco Insurance Companies Kemper Corporation South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company California Casualty Group Kentucky Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Companies Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company Capital Insurance Group Liberty Mutual Insurance Company State Auto Insurance Companies Censtat Casualty Company Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company State Farm Insurance Companies Chubb & Son Main Street America Group Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Mercury Insurance Group Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Companies Concord Group Insurance Companies MetLife Auto & Home The Travelers Companies COUNTRY Financial MiddleOak United Educators CSAA Insurance Group Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company USAA CSE Insurance Group MMG Insurance Utica National Insurance Group Direct General Corporation Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Erie Insurance Group Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company West Bend Mutual Insurance Company Esurance Nationwide Western National Insurance Group Farm Bureau Financial Services New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group Westfield Insurance Farm Bureau Insurance of Michigan Nodak Mutual Insurance Company XL Group plc Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho Norfolk & Dedham Group Farmers Insurance Group North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa Northern Neck Insurance Company Funding associations Farmers Mutual of Nebraska Ohio Mutual Insurance Group American Insurance Association Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies Old American County Mutual Fire Insurance Company National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies Frankenmuth Insurance Old American Indemnity Company Property Casualty Insurers Association of America Fatal crash trends Motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 1950-2014 60,000 1966 80 54.9 per billion 50,894 deaths 70 55,000 Motor vehicle 60 crash deaths 50,000 50 45,000 40 30 40,000 20 2014 35,000 Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 1010.8 per billion 32,675 deaths 30,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 US motor vehicle crash deaths and unemployment rate 1950-2014 60,000 20 55,000 Motor vehicle crash deaths 15 50,000 45,000 10 40,000 6 percent 5 35,000 Unemployment rate 32,675 30,000 0 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 Year-to-year percent changes in US motor vehicle crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled and unemployment rate 1951-2014 20 15 80 10 Unemployment rate 40 5 0 0 -5 -10 -40 -15 Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled -20 -80 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 Collision loss trends Collision claim frequencies By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years Claims per 100 insured vehicle years 10 8 6 4 cars pickups SUVs 2 all vehicles change in reporting procedures for 1 company 0 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Collision claim severities By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 cars pickups SUVs $1,000 all vehicles change in reporting procedures for 1 company $0 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Collision overall losses By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years $500 $400 $300 $200 cars pickups SUVs $100 all vehicles change in reporting procedures for 1 company $0 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Changes in teen driver exposure The Washington Post, 8-1-13 Collision Week, 6-10-2013 Automotive News, 5-17-13 The New York Times, 6-30-13 Today, 7-12-13 The Detroit News, 8-6-13 Deseret News, 7-14-13 Changes in teen exposure Study design calendar years 2006-14 model years rolling 10 teen exposure 8.7 million years prime exposure 220 million years unemployment spread, covariates census population ratio, GDL intermediate licensing age study variable teen-to-prime exposure ratio Comparison of national teen and prime exposure 2006-14 30,000,000 4.2 25,000,000 4.1 20,000,000 4.0 15,000,000 3.9 exposure exposure ratio exposure 10,000,000 prime exposure 3.8 teen exposure 5,000,000 teen to prime ratio 3.7 0 3.6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Comparison of national teen and prime exposure 2006-14, indexed to 2006 1.10 4.2 1.05 4.1 1.00 4.0 0.95 3.9 exposure 0.90 exposure ratio exposure 3.8 0.85 prime exposure teen exposure 3.7 0.80 teen to prime ratio 0.75 3.6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Comparison of national teen and prime unemployment rates 2006-14 30 25 20 15 prime unemployment teen unemployment 10 unemployment spread unemployment rate unemployment 5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Comparison of national teen and prime exposure 2006-14, indexed to 2006 4.2 20 19 4.1 18 17 4.0 16 3.9 15 exposure ratio exposure 14 3.8 spreadunemployment 13 teen to prime ratio 12 3.7 unemployment spread 11 3.6 10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Teen technology Collision claim frequencies and violent crime rates Violent crime rate calendar years 2006-14 model year 1998-2015 exposure 478,859,131 claims 2,935,483 vehicle age, vehicle type, rated driver age, gender, marital status, deductible, risk, registered vehicle density, state, independent variables percent of resident with high school or higher education, violent crime rate, and violent crime rate by driver age Increase in collision claim frequency for each additional violent crime per 1,000 people By calendar year and rated driver age group 5% <20 4% 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 3% 2% 1% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Alcohol related fatalities and enforcement 2014 motor vehicle fatalities: 31 percent of fatally injured passenger vehicle drivers had BAC ≥0.08 percent Impact of alcohol enforcement: – A review of studies of sobriety checkpoint programs found a median decline of 22 percent in fatal crashes thought to involve alcohol (Elder, et. al., 2002). – In the absence of special enforcement efforts, as few as 1 in 2,000 drivers with a high BAC are arrested (Williams, 1989). – An 18 percent reduction in injury and fatal crashes was found in California with roving patrols (Stuster & Blowers, 1995). – In Michigan DUI saturation patrols reduced the proportion of alcohol positive drivers involved in fatal crashes by 14 percent (Fell, Tippetts, & Levy, 2008) Speed related fatalities and enforcement 2014 motor vehicle fatalities: Speeding was a factor is 28 percent of motor vehicle crash deaths Impact of speed enforcement: – Speed enforcement programs reduce speed related crashes 1-11 percent and the number of vehicles traveling over the limit by 10- 19 percent (Stuster, 1995). – Violent crimes decline 1-8 percent in special speed enforcement areas (Stuster, 1995). – Average speeds return to pre-enforcement levels after enforcement has been removed (Hauer, et al., 1982). Average vehicle horsepower 1983-2015 model years 400 300 200 100 cars pickups SUVs 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Percent increase in mean vehicle speed per 10 horsepower/100 lb. increase by speed limit 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 speed limit 40-45 mph speed limit 50-55 mph speed limit 60-65 mph Front crash prevention Front crash prevention systems Change in claim frequency 10% low speed warning only warning with autobrake 0% -10% -20% PDL collision -30% Mazda Mazda Volvo FCA (with Honda Honda Mercedes- Volvo Acura Mercedes- Subaru Volvo (smart (smart City ACC, Accord Accord Benz Benz (with (with city city Safety BSM & camera radar LDW) LDW) brake brake RCTA) (with (with support) support LDW) LDW & FCW) + ACC) Front crash prevention systems Change in claim frequency 10% low speed warning only warning with autobrake 0% -10% -20% Bodily -30% injury liability -40% Mazda Mazda Volvo City Chrysler Honda Honda Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru Volvo 30% combined Safety
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