Trends in crashing

Communications Committee Meeting Insurance Information Institute Washington, D.C. ● June 14, 2015

Matt Moore, Vice President

iihs.org IIHS is an independent, nonprofit scientific and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries and property damage — from crashes on the nation’s roads.

HLDI shares this mission by analyzing insurance data representing human and economic losses from crashes and other events related to vehicle ownership.

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60,000 1966 80 54.9 per billion 50,894 deaths 70 55,000 Motor vehicle 60 crash deaths 50,000 50

45,000 40

30 40,000 20 2014 35,000 Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled 1010.8 per billion 32,675 deaths

30,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

US motor vehicle crash deaths and unemployment rate 1950-2014

60,000 20

55,000 Motor vehicle crash deaths 15 50,000

45,000 10

40,000 6 percent 5 35,000 Unemployment rate 32,675

30,000 0 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 Year-to-year percent changes in US motor vehicle crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled and unemployment rate 1951-2014 20

15 80

10 Unemployment rate 40 5

0 0 -5

-10 -40

-15 Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled -20 -80 1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10 Collision loss trends Collision claim frequencies By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years Claims per 100 insured vehicle years

10

8

6

4 cars pickups SUVs 2 all vehicles

change in reporting procedures for 1 company 0 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Collision claim severities By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years

$5,000

$4,000

$3,000

$2,000 cars pickups SUVs $1,000 all vehicles

change in reporting procedures for 1 company $0 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Collision overall losses By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years

$500

$400

$300

$200 cars pickups SUVs $100 all vehicles

change in reporting procedures for 1 company $0 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Changes in teen driver exposure The Washington Post, 8-1-13

Collision Week, 6-10-2013

Automotive News, 5-17-13

The New York Times, 6-30-13

Today, 7-12-13

The Detroit News, 8-6-13

Deseret News, 7-14-13 Changes in teen exposure Study design

calendar years 2006-14

model years rolling 10

teen exposure 8.7 million years

prime exposure 220 million years

unemployment spread, covariates census population ratio, GDL intermediate licensing age

study variable teen-to-prime exposure ratio Comparison of national teen and prime exposure 2006-14

30,000,000 4.2

25,000,000 4.1

20,000,000 4.0

15,000,000 3.9 exposure exposure ratio exposure

10,000,000 prime exposure 3.8 teen exposure

5,000,000 teen to prime ratio 3.7

0 3.6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Comparison of national teen and prime exposure 2006-14, indexed to 2006

1.10 4.2

1.05 4.1

1.00 4.0

0.95

3.9

exposure 0.90 exposure ratio exposure

3.8 0.85 prime exposure teen exposure 3.7 0.80 teen to prime ratio

0.75 3.6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Comparison of national teen and prime unemployment rates 2006-14

30

25

20

15 prime unemployment teen unemployment

10 unemployment spread unemployment rate unemployment

5

0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Comparison of national teen and prime exposure 2006-14, indexed to 2006

4.2 20

19 4.1 18

17 4.0 16

3.9 15

exposure ratio exposure 14

3.8 spreadunemployment 13

teen to prime ratio 12 3.7 unemployment spread 11

3.6 10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Teen technology Collision claim frequencies and violent crime rates Violent crime rate

calendar years 2006-14

model year 1998-2015

exposure 478,859,131

claims 2,935,483

vehicle age, vehicle type, rated driver age, gender, marital status, deductible, risk, registered vehicle density, state, independent variables percent of resident with high school or higher education, violent crime rate, and violent crime rate by driver age Increase in collision claim frequency for each additional violent crime per 1,000 people By calendar year and rated driver age group

5%

<20 4% 20-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 3%

2%

1%

0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Alcohol related fatalities and enforcement 2014 motor vehicle fatalities: 31 percent of fatally injured passenger vehicle drivers had BAC ≥0.08 percent Impact of alcohol enforcement: – A review of studies of sobriety checkpoint programs found a median decline of 22 percent in fatal crashes thought to involve alcohol (Elder, et. al., 2002). – In the absence of special enforcement efforts, as few as 1 in 2,000 drivers with a high BAC are arrested (Williams, 1989). – An 18 percent reduction in injury and fatal crashes was found in California with roving patrols (Stuster & Blowers, 1995). – In Michigan DUI saturation patrols reduced the proportion of alcohol positive drivers involved in fatal crashes by 14 percent (Fell, Tippetts, & Levy, 2008) Speed related fatalities and enforcement

2014 motor vehicle fatalities: Speeding was a factor is 28 percent of motor vehicle crash deaths Impact of speed enforcement: – Speed enforcement programs reduce speed related crashes 1-11 percent and the number of vehicles traveling over the limit by 10- 19 percent (Stuster, 1995). – Violent crimes decline 1-8 percent in special speed enforcement areas (Stuster, 1995). – Average speeds return to pre-enforcement levels after enforcement has been removed (Hauer, et al., 1982). Average vehicle horsepower 1983-2015 model years

400

300

200

100 cars pickups SUVs

0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Percent increase in mean vehicle speed per 10 horsepower/100 lb. increase by speed limit

12

10

8

6

4

2

0 speed limit 40-45 mph speed limit 50-55 mph speed limit 60-65 mph Front crash prevention

Front crash prevention systems Change in claim frequency

10% low speed warning only warning with autobrake

0%

-10%

-20% PDL collision

-30% Mazda Mazda Volvo FCA (with Honda Honda Mercedes- Volvo Acura Mercedes- Subaru Volvo (smart (smart City ACC, Accord Accord Benz Benz (with (with city city Safety BSM & camera radar LDW) LDW) brake brake RCTA) (with (with support) support LDW) LDW & FCW) + ACC) Front crash prevention systems Change in claim frequency 10% low speed warning only warning with autobrake 0%

-10%

-20% Bodily -30% injury liability -40% Mazda Mazda Volvo City Chrysler Honda Honda Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru Volvo 30% combined Safety (with ACC, Accord Accord (includes BSMwarning & (includes only Touring warning with autobrake LDW) 20% low speed RCTA) LDW) 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% MedPay PIP -40% Mazda Mazda Volvo FCA (with Honda Honda Mercedes- Volvo Acura Mercedes- Subaru Volvo (smart (smart city City ACC, BSM Accord Accord Benz Benz (with (with city brake Safety & RCTA) camera radar LDW) LDW) brake support & (with (with support) FCW) LDW) LDW + ACC) Front crash prevention systems Change in collision claim severity

$1,500

low speed warning only warning with autobrake $1,000

$500

$0

-$500

-$1,000 Mazda Mazda Volvo FCA (with Honda Honda Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru Volvo (smart (smart City ACC, Accord Accord (with (with city brake city brake Safety BSM camera radar LDW) LDW) support) support & &RCTA) (with (with FCW) LDW) LDW & ACC) Honda Accord forward collision warning Camera vs. radar

available on trims other than Touring standard on Touring trim

change in collision change in collision claim severity claim severity -$145 $522 Front crash prevention systems Change in collision overall losses

$150

low speed warning only warning with autobrake $100

$50

$0

-$50

-$100 Mazda Mazda Volvo FCA (with Honda Honda Mercedes Volvo Acura Mercedes Subaru Volvo (smart (smart City ACC, Accord Accord (with (with city brake city brake Safety BSM & camera radar LDW) LDW) support) support & RCTA) (with (with FCW) LDW) LDW & ACC)

The percentage of vehicles in the U.S. fleet with advanced safety systems New vehicle series with front crash prevention By model year

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 standard optional not available Registered vehicles with front crash prevention By calendar year

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 standard optional not available Registered vehicles with available front crash prevention, actual and predicted By calendar year

100%

80%

60%

predicted 40% actual

20%

0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Estimated change in PDL claim frequency due to increased fitment of FCW systems Based on estimated effect of 10%

100% 0%

80%

-5% 60%

40% -10% vehicles with feature optional assumption: 20% changeclaim in frequency 20% 2020 mandate

0% -15% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Competing visions of autonomous driving

Animal strikes National comprehensive claim frequencies for animal strikes January 2006 through December 2015

18 November 15 August

12

9

6

3

0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 November animal-strike claims Per 1,000 insured vehicle years

≥ 25 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 < 5 does not meet 100 November claims threshold Comprehensive claims and dollars By loss type, 2013-15 models

claims dollars

vandalism vandalism 4.5% 5.9%

weather animal strike other 5.7% 9.9% theft 10.4% other 2.0% 16.4% fire animal strike 0.2% 27.4%

weather 23.7% glass 67.4% glass 13.7% theft 10.6%

fire 2.3% Point of impact distribution calendar years 2004-13 and model years 2001-14

17.1% 55.9% 14.4% 10.5% 30.2% 11.1%

3.9% 2.7% 3.6% 3.7%

2.1% 1.2% 3.1% 3.6%

1.0% 0.6% 2.8% 3.5%

0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 6.1% 16.1% 5.6%

animal-strike claims collision claims Large animal crash prevention system

2017 Volvo S90 2017 Volvo XC90

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