CHICAGO, ILLINOIS| FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 2
AUTO TECHNOLOGY AND SAFETY KIM HAZELBAKER
IIHS is an independent, nonprofit scientific and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries and property damage — from crashes on the nation’s roads.
HLDI shares this mission by analyzing insurance data representing human and economic losses from crashes and other events related to vehicle ownership.
Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 2 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 1 of 46 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 3 ]
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 4 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 2 of 46 Member groups
AAA Carolinas The General Insurance Plymouth Rock Assurance Acceptance Insurance Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Progressive Insurance Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation Goodville Mutual Casualty Company PURE Insurance Alfa Insurance Grange Insurance Qualitas Insurance Company Allstate Insurance Group Hallmark Financial Services Redpoint County Mutual Insurance Company American Family Mutual Insurance Company Hanover Insurance Group The Responsive Auto Insurance Company American National The Hartford Rider Insurance Ameriprise Auto & Home Haulers Insurance Company, Inc. Rockingham Group Amica Mutual Insurance Company Horace Mann Insurance Companies RSA Canada Auto Club Enterprises Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company Safe Auto Insurance Company Auto Club Group Indiana Farmers Mutual Insurance Company Safeco Insurance Auto‐Owners Insurance Infinity Property & Casualty Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company Bitco Insurance Companies Kemper Corporation SECURA Insurance California Casualty Group Kentucky Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Companies Sentry Insurance Censtat Casualty Company Liberty Mutual Insurance Company Shelter Insurance Companies CHUBB Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Sompo America Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company The Main Street America Group South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Concord Group Insurance Companies Mercury Insurance Group Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company COUNTRY Financial MetLife Auto & Home State Auto Insurance Companies CSAA Insurance Group Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company State Farm Insurance Companies CSE Insurance Group MMG Insurance Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company Desjardins Insurance Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Companies Direct General Corporation Mutual Benefit Group The Travelers Companies Elephant Insurance Company Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company United Educators EMC Insurance Companies Nationwide USAA Erie Insurance Group New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group Utica National Insurance Group Esurance Nodak Mutual Insurance Company Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Farm Bureau Financial Services Norfolk & Dedham Group West Bend Mutual Insurance Company Farm Bureau Insurance of Michigan North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Western National Insurance Group Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho Northern Neck Insurance Company Westfield Insurance Farmers Insurance Group Ohio Mutual Insurance Group XL Group plc Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa Old American County Mutual Fire Insurance Company Farmers Mutual of Nebraska Old American Indemnity Company Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies Oregon Mutual Insurance Company Funding associations Frankenmuth Insurance Paramount Insurance Company American Insurance Association Gainsco Insurance Pekin Insurance National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies GEICO Corporation PEMCO Insurance Property Casualty Insurers Association of America
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 5 ]
The Big Picture
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 6 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 3 of 46 U.S. motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled
1950-2016
80 60000
70 55000 60 Motor vehicle crash deaths 50000 50
40 45000
30 40000 20 2016 Crash deaths per 3500011.8 per billion 10 billion vehicle miles traveled 37,461 deaths 0 30000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 7 ]
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 8 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 4 of 46 Crash Testing 101
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 10 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 5 of 46 IIHS crashworthiness tests
Front moderate overlap, Side impact, Rear crash (whiplash mitigation), beginning 1995 beginning 2003 beginning 2004
Roof strength, Front small overlap, beginning 2009 beginning 2012
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 11 ]
Crash protection ratings by model year Improvements beginning in 1995
100% 100% 100%
80% 80% 80%
60% 60% 60%
40% 40% 40%
20% 20% 20%
0% 0% 0% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
100% 100%
poor 80% 80% marginal
60% 60% acceptable
good 40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 12 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 6 of 46 Passenger-side small overlap testing
Examples of structural countermeasures to improve performance in small overlap
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 14 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 7 of 46 Small overlap countermeasures are not always applied to the passenger-side
Passenger-side moderate overlap tests of two vehicles Moderate overlap tests indicates good Small overlap structure on driver-side protection for the passenger and performance is not affected by small overlap countermeasures Many vehicles sold and tested as right-hand drive in other markets NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 15 ]
Toyota RAV-4 has driver-side only countermeasures
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 16 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 8 of 46 Toyota RAV-4 had different structural performance on driver-side and passenger-side
driver side passenger side G P
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 17 ]
Driver/passenger small overlap crash ratings
driver-side passenger-side visible design impact impact application 2016 Hyundai Tucson G G symmetric 2015 Buick EncoreG A symmetric 2015 Honda CRV G A symmetric 2015 Mazda CX-5 G A symmetric 2015 Nissan Rogue G M symmetric 2014 Subaru Forester G M driver-side 2015 Toyota RAV4 G P driver-side
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 18 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 9 of 46 TOP SAFETY PICK
Requirements for TOP SAFETY PICK 2018
Driver Passenger Moderate Front side small side small Head- overlap Side Roof Rear crash overlap overlap lamps front prevention front front
Not Advanced Good or 2018 TSP Good Good Good Good Good required or Superior Acceptable
Good or Advanced 2018 TSP+ Good Good Good Good Good Good Acceptable or Superior
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 20 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 10 of 46 Small cars Large cars Midsize luxury SUVs 2018 Chevrolet Volt 2018 Kia Cadenza 2018 Acura MDX 2018 Hyundai Elantra 2018 Toyota Avalon 2018 Acura RDX 2018 Hyundai Elantra GT 2018 Buick Envision 2018 Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid Small SUVs 2018 Lexus NX 2018 Mazda 3 2018 Honda CR-V 2018 Lexus RX 2018 Subaru Crosstrek 2018 Hyundai Tucson 2018 Mercedes-Benz GLE-Class 2018 Toyota Corolla 2018 Kia Sportage 2018 Volvo XC60 2018 Toyota Prius 2018 Mazda CX-3 2018 Toyota Prius Prime 2018 Mazda CX-5 2018 Mitsubishi Outlander Minivans Midsize cars 2018 Nissan Rogue 2018 Chrysler Pacifica 2018 Honda Accord 2018 Subaru Forester 2018 Honda Odyssey 2018 Kia Optima 2018 Toyota RAV4 2018 Nissan Altima Large pickups 2018 Nissan Maxima Midsize SUVs 2018 Honda Ridgeline 2018 Honda Pilot Midsize luxury cars 2018 Kia Sorento 2018 Alfa Romeo Giulia 2018 Mazda CX-9 2018 Audi A3 2018 Toyota Highlander 2018 Audi A4 2018 BMW 3 series 2018 Lexus ES 350 2018 Lexus IS 2018 Volvo S60 2018 Volvo V60 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 21 ]
Small cars Large luxury cars Midsize luxury SUVs 2018 Kia Forte 2018 BMW 5 series 2018 Mercedes-Benz GLC 2018 Kia Soul 2018 Genesis G80 2018 Subaru Impreza 2018 Genesis G90 2018 Subaru WRX 2018 Lincoln Continental 2018 Mercedes-Benz E-Class Midsize cars 2018Hyundai Sonata Midsize SUVs 2018 Subaru Legacy 2018 Hyundai Santa Fe 2018 Subaru Outback 2018 Hyundai Santa Fe Sport 2018 Toyota Camry
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 22 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 11 of 46 2015 Ford F-150 Discrepancy
F-150 Countermeasure Discrepancy
2015 Ford F-150 SuperCrew 2015 Ford F-150 SuperCab
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 24 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 12 of 46 Small overlap F-150 SuperCab
2015 Ford F-150 SuperCab 2016 Ford F150 SuperCab w/countermeasure NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 25 ]
2015 Ford F-150
SuperCrew SuperCab
restraints & head/ hip/ lower overall structure kinematics neck chest thigh leg/foot
SuperCrew
SuperCab
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 26 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 13 of 46 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 27 ]
Global New Car Assessment Program (NCAP)
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 14 of 46 Global NCAP meeting October 26-28, 2016
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 29 ]
2015 Nissan Tsuru and 2016 Nissan Versa
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 30 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 15 of 46 Latest and greatest
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 32 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 16 of 46 Highway Loss Data Institute
HLDI data providers have 84% share of PPA • 21st Century Insurance • Kemper Preferred
• Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation • Kentucky Farm Bureau Insurance
• Allstate Insurance Group • Liberty Mutual Insurance Company
• American Family Mutual Insurance • MetLife Auto and Home
• American National Family of Companies • National General
• Amica Mutual Insurance Company • Nationwide
• Auto Club Group • New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group
• Automobile Insurers Bureau of Massachusetts • PEMCO Insurance
• Chubb & Son • Plymouth Rock Assurance
• COUNTRY Financial • Progressive Corporation
• CSAA Insurance Group • Rockingham Group
• Erie Insurance Group • Safeco Insurance Companies
• Esurance • SECURA Insurance
• Farm Bureau Financial Services • Sentry Insurance
• Farmers Insurance Group of Companies • State Farm Insurance Companies
• Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies • Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company
• Foremost • Texas Farm Bureau
• GEICO Corporation • The Travelers Companies
• Hanover Insurance Group • USAA
• The Hartford
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 34 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 17 of 46 Other data suppliers
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 35 ]
Size of HLDI passenger vehicle database Number of unique VINs in files, January 2017
model year number of vehicles 2007 15,425,758 2008 13.724,676 2009 9,023715 2010 10,468,500 2011 11,234,510 2012 12,384,188 2013 13,522,303 2014 13,207,508 2015 13,550,716 2016 10,824,583 total 123,366,457
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 36 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 18 of 46 Coverages reported to HLDI Private Passenger Auto • Collision • Comprehensive • Personal injury protection • Medical payments • Physical damage liability • Bodily injury liability
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 37 ]
Crash avoidance systems
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 19 of 46 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 39 ]
Mercedes advertisement
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 40 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 20 of 46 Collision Avoidance Technology Adaptive headlights, Collision mitigation braking system (Forward Acura collision warning with auto brake and Adaptive cruise control), Blind spot warning
Buick Lane departure warning & side blind zone alert, Rear park assist
Forward collision warning, adaptive cruise control & blind spot Chrysler monitoring with rear cross path detection Forward collision warning, lane departure warning, adaptive Honda Accord cruise control, LaneWatch Adaptive cruise control, Forward obstruction warning, smart city Mazda brake support, lane departure warning, Adaptive headlights, Blind spot warning, Rear camera, rear cross traffic alert Adaptive headlights, Adaptive head beam assist, Attention assist, Active blind spot assist, Blind spot warning, Distronic, DistronicPlus PreSafe brake, Lane departure warning, Night view Mercedes Benz assist, Night view assist with pedestrian protection, ParkTronic, Rear camera (Distronic Plus, Lane departure prevention, Park assist, Park guidance)
Subaru EyeSight, rear vehicle detection, rear camera
Adaptive headlights, Blind spot warning, Park assist, Rear Volvo Camera (Adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning, Forward collision warning with auto brake) NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 41 ]
Collision avoidance research project methods
calendar year, vehicle series and model year, covariates rated driver age, rated driver gender, rated driver marital status, rated driver risk, state, registered vehicle density
model years 2000-15
calendar years 1999-15
only vehicles with features included, each feature modeling treated as a variable, model run for each coverage type approach for frequency and severity
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 42 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 21 of 46 Front Crash Prevention
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 44 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 22 of 46 Front crash prevention systems Change in claim frequency
10% low speed warning only warning with autobrake
0%
-10%
-20% PDL collision
-30%
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 45 ]
Front crash prevention systems Change in claim frequency 10% low speed warning only warning with autobrake 0%
-10%
-20% Bodily -30% injury liability
-40% Mazda Mazda combined Volvo City Safety Chrysler (with ACC, BSM GM (with LDW or LKA) Honda Accord (includes Honda Accord Touring Honda Odyssey (with Mercedes Volvo Weighted average Acura GM (with ACC/LDW or Honda Sensing (with Mercedes Subaru Volvo (includes Weighted average & RCTA) LDW) LDW) LKA) ACC/LDW/LKA) LDW) 30% 20% MedPay PIP 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 46 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 23 of 46 Front crash prevention systems Change in collision claim severity $1,500 low speed warning only warning with autobrake $1,000
$500
$0
-$500
-$1,000
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 47 ]
Cost of Mercedes Distronic radar unit
Distronic: $2,177
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 48 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 24 of 46 Honda Accord forward collision warning Camera vs. radar
available on trims other than Touring standard on Touring trim
change in collision change in collision claim severity claim severity -$29 $341
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 49 ]
Front crash prevention systems Change in collision overall losses
$150 low speed warning only warning with autobrake $100
$50
$0
-$50
-$100
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 50 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 25 of 46 Front crash prevention ratings
vehicles without forward collision warning or autobrake; or vehicles equipped with a system that doesn’t meet NHTSA or IIHS criteria
vehicles earning 1 point for forward collision warning or 1 point in either 12 or 25 mph test
vehicles with autobrake that achieve 2-4 points for forward collision warning and/or performance in autobraking tests
vehicles with autobrake that achieve 5-6 points for forward collision warning and/or performance in autobraking tests
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 51 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 26 of 46 Front crash prevention ratings 2013-17 models, as of September 2017
160 2013
142 2014 2015 120 116 2016 2017
92 80 85
63 62 62 58 59 53 48 40 44 41 40 41 34 28
19
11 10 0
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 53 ]
Adaptive headlights
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 27 of 46 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 55 ]
Adaptive headlights Change in claim frequency
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8% PDL collision -10% Acura Mazda Mercedes-Benz Volvo
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 56 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 28 of 46 Adaptive headlights Change in claim frequency
10% Bodily injury liability
0%
-10%
-20% Acura Mazda Mercedes Volvo 10% MedPay PIP 0%
-10%
-20% Acura Mazda Mercedes-Benz Volvo
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 57 ]
Adaptive headlights Change in collision claim severity
$1,000
$500
$0
-$500
-$1,000 Acura Mazda Mercedes Volvo
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 58 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 29 of 46 Adaptive headlights Change in collision overall losses
$100
$50
$0
-$50
-$100 Acura Mazda Mercedes Volvo
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 59 ]
Headlight testing
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 30 of 46 Toyota Prius v LED and BMW 3 series halogen On-road comparison
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 61 ]
Differences in headlight illumination Deer is 270 feet from front of car; approximate reach of Accord’s 5 lux
Honda Accord Mercedes C300
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 62 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 31 of 46 GOOD 16 vehicles 2017 headlight ratings All trims and ACCEPTABLE POOR 62 vehicles packages tested 114 vehicles as of August 2017
MARGINAL 57 vehicles
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 63 ]
Headlight costs 2017 models with Good ratings Vehicle Low beam High beam Adaptive Cost
Chevrolet Volt LED Halogen None $490 Subaru Legacy HID Halogen Supplemental lamp $647 Toyota Prius v LED LED None $824 Honda Ridgeline LED Halogen None $827 Subaru Impreza LED LED Swiveling $900 Kia Optima LED LED Swiveling $926 BMW 2 series HID HID Swiveling $1262 Kia Forte HID Halogen Swiveling $1267 Volvo XC60 HID Halogen Swiveling $1286 Hyundai Santa Fe HID HID Swiveling $1374 Hyundai Elantra HID Halogen Swiveling $1461 Mercedes E class LED LED Swiveling $1520 Genesis G90 LED LED Swiveling $1642 BMW 5 series LED LED Swiveling $1820 Lincoln Continental LED LED None $3619 Average: $1,324
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 64 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 32 of 46 Lane departure warning
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 66 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 33 of 46 Lane departure warning Change in claim frequency
10% PDL collision
0%
-10%
-20% Mercedes-Benz Mazda Buick Honda Honda Subaru Volvo (with Accord Accord (with (with Blindspot) camera radar FCW/AEB) FCW/AEB) (with (with FCW) FCW/ACC) NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 67 ]
Lane departure warning Change in claim frequency
10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% Mercedes MazdaHonda Buick AccordHonda AccordcameraSubaru radar (w/FCW) (w/FCW & (w/ ACC) FCW/AEB)Volvo 40%
20% MedPay PIP
0%
-20%
-40% Mercedes- Mazda Buick Honda Honda Subaru Volvo Benz (with Accord Accord (with (with Blindspot) camera radar FCW/AEB) FCW/AEB) (with (with FCW) FCW/ACC) NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 68 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 34 of 46 Percent of vehicle owners who reported driving with lane-maintenance systems turned on
100
80
60
unknown 40 never
sometimes 20 always
0 Volvo Infiniti Infiniti Toyota lane departure warning lane departure warning lane departure prevention lane departure prevention
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 69 ]
Collision avoidance summary
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 35 of 46 Summary of technology effects on insurance claim frequency Results pooled across automakers
10% Collision Property Damage Liability Bodily Injury Liability 5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20% forward fcw adaptive lane side-view collision with headlights departure assist warning autobrake warning (blind spot)
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 71 ]
Functional performance of adaptive cruise control and active lane-keeping systems
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 36 of 46 Time to collision at brake initiation when approaching a stationary target 31 mph test speed
7
6 AEB ACC
5
4
time (s) time 3
2
1
0 Honda Civic Audi Q7 Volvo XC90 BMW 5 series Mercedes-Benz E-Class Tesla Model S
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 73 ]
Adaptive cruise control with stopped lead vehicle 2016 Honda Civic
AEB only ACC active NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 74 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 37 of 46 Adaptive cruise control with stopped lead vehicle 2016 Tesla Model S
AEB only ACC active NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 75 ]
Problems: stopped lead vehicle On-road testing – Mercedes-Benz E-Class
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 76 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 38 of 46 Problems: turn lanes On-road testing – Mercedes-Benz E-Class
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 77 ]
Tesla “Autopilot”
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 78 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 39 of 46 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 79 ]
Time certainly made our Tesla smarter. A software update in October 2015 enabled Autopilot, which combines adaptive cruise control, a self-steering lane-keeping program, and automated lane changes (activated by triggering the turn signal). Autopilot can cover scores of highway miles without driver involvement, and yet it occasionally yanked – suddenly and alarmingly – at the steering wheel when it lost the scent of lane markers, causing the vehicle to swerve out of its lane.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 80 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 40 of 46 Honda Ridgeline – multiple systems shutdown
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 81 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 41 of 46 Growth rates of vehicle features in the U.S. vehicle fleet
New vehicle series with electronic stability control By model year
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 standard optional not available
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 84 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 42 of 46 Registered vehicles with electronic stability control By calendar year
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 standard optional not available
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 85 ]
Registered vehicles with available electronic stability control, actual and predicted By calendar year
100%
80%
60%
40% predicted actual 20%
0% 1995 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 86 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 43 of 46 Year available features reach 95% of registered vehicles with and without hypothetical mandate
2050
without mandate
hypothetical 2017 mandate
2040
2030
2020 forward forward lane adaptive blind spot rear camera* rear parking collision collision departure headlights warning sensors
warning** warning with warning *rear camera mandate May 1, 2018 autobrake** ** front crash prevention agreement, 2022 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 87 ]
Voluntary agreement to make AEB standard on all models by 2022
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 44 of 46 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 89 ]
Percent of 2017 fleet conforming to AEB commitment As reported by manufacturer for light-duty vehicles 8,500 lb. or less gross vehicle weight
vehicles with AEB standard vehicles produced with AEB Tesla 99.8% Audi 73% Mercedes-Benz 96% BMW 58% Volvo 68% Subaru 47% Toyota 56% Volkswagen 36% Honda 30% Maserati/Alfa Romeo 30% Hyundai 9% Mazda 24% General Motors 20% Nissan 14% Fiat Chrysler 6% Kia 5% Mitsubishi 3% Ford 2% Jaguar Land Rover 0% Porsche 0%
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 90 ]
2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 45 of 46 Subaru advertisement
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MUTUAL INSURANCE COMPANIES [ 91 ]
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2018 NAMIC Commercial Lines Seminar - Hazelbaker Page 46 of 46