ETHIOPIA: Needs Assessment Report Somali Region – Gode & Warder Zones February 2012 I. Executive Summary Following below average spring rains in 2011, acute drought conditions severely affected over 13 million people in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti, creating conditions for famine, mass displacement, and destitution among pastoral and agropastoral groups. Of the total affected population, OCHA estimates approximately 4.8 million Ethiopians still require humanitarian assistance.1 The Somali region of Ethiopia was one of the worst affected areas during the 2011 drought; and although much of this region benefitted from productive seasonal deyr rains from October-December 2011, irregularities in rainfall, coupled with extreme flooding, continues to cripple agropastoralists and pastoralists who are unable to maintain a basic livelihoods protection threshold. In this context CHF carried out a drought and floods needs assessment in Gode and Warder Zones of the Somali region in February 2012. A nine-person assessment team conducted 40 focus groups comprised of 387 participants (70% women) and 16 key informant interviews in order to understand the current context since the deyr rains and the urgent community needs. Based on the assessment findings, recommendations are made on ways to transition communities from emergency assistance to early recovery activities designed to increase household and community resilience to future shocks. 1. USAID, Horn of Africa – Drought Fact Sheet #15, Fiscal Year 2012, 02 February 2012 CHF International: Ethiopia Needs Assessment Report 1 Somali Region – Gode & Warder Zones February 2012 Main Findings & Recommendations 1. Finding: Water supply needs are acute, in both wet and dry seasons. Recommendation: Increase availability of and access to water through the rehabilitation of shallow wells and construc- tion of birkats in non-riverine communities, and the creation of income generation opportunities for communities forced to purchase water. 2. Finding: Households in the Somali region, especially female members, are inherently business-oriented; however the 2011 drought resulted in mass asset losses, specifically among pastoralists. Thus, households have lost their primary income source and are struggling to find alternative livelihoods due to a lack of start-up capital. Recommendation: Increase business creation through trainings in business and financial management and marketing in addition to the provision of start-up capital for group enterprises. 3. Finding: Hygiene and sanitation and water treatment capacity is extremely low resulting in high incidents of water- borne diseases. Recommendation: Increase the availability of water treatment chemicals and filtration systems and complement these distributions with hygiene and sanitation training to reduce incidents of water-borne diseases. 4. Finding: Chronic, unexpected river flooding is having a negative effect on agriculture productivity in Shebelle River areas, decreasing community food supply and household economic conditions. Recommendation: Introduce flood mitigation infrastructure to increase control of the flood waters. Formalize the informal early warning network through trainings at the woreda and kebele levels, and identification of key local focal points, to reduce flood-related asset loses. 5. Finding: Due to the 2011 drought many pastoral communities lost all of their livestock and are now settling in and around urban centers, classified as “pastoral dropouts.” Without technical skills it is difficult for these communities to enter the labor market. Recommendation: In coordination with the Gode Administrative Council, town municipalities and SME development offices, increase vocational training opportunities for pastoral dropouts in urban and peri-urban areas. CHF International: Ethiopia Needs Assessment Report 2 Somali Region – Gode & Warder Zones February 2012 II. Current Situation The cumulative impact of the successive droughts and floods over the last four years has rendered both pastoralists and agropastoralists food insecure and less resilient to future shocks. FEWSNET’s estimated food security conditions for the first quarter of 2012 (Jan – March) for the Somali region are dire. Most of Gode and Warder Zones are classified as IPC level 4: emergency, with pockets of IPC 3: crisis. This is concerning since the 2011 fourth quarter reports classified the entire Somali region as IPC 3; thus the situation is predicted to deteriorate in 2012, after slightly recovering after the some- what successful 2011 deyr rains. The UN-backed Climate Forum forecasts the 2012 March – May (Gu) rains will be near or below normal advising that, “we must plan for the probability that rainfall will be erratic and there will be long dry spells which will impact on crop production and food security.”2 The latest FEWSNET report agrees, stating that “the western Pacific is currently exhibiting a sea surface temperature and rainfall pattern which is similar to patterns experienced during the drought years of 1984, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011…if these conditions persist, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and southeastern Ethiopia may experience dry conditions.”3 The World Meterological Organization (WMO) anticipates the current La Nina is relatively weaker than the one recorded in 2011; however both organizations are urging humanitarian actors to prepare for the worst. With communities already struggling to respond from the crisis of 2011, even a minor setback this year could be disastrous. Somali commu- nities affected by recurring shocks, particularly drought (Gode and Warder Zones) and extreme flooding (Gode Zone), are relying on rapidly diminishing, or negative, coping mechanisms and therefore retain little ability to reconstitute any semblance of resilient livelihoods. Continued humanitarian support to meet the urgent needs of pastoralist and agropasto- ralist communities is vital. III. Needs Assessment & Sector Response Capacity Methodology In February 2012, CHF conducted a needs assessment in Gode and Warder Zones of the Somali Region to investi- gate how conditions have changed since CHF’s August 2011 SHAPE proposal submission and understand the current needs of the population. From February 20-25, the CHF assessment team conducted 40 focus groups with a total of 387 participants (70% women) and 16 key informant interviews, comprised of agropastoralist, pastoralist and pastoral- dropout communities. Key informant interviews targeted local and international stakeholders, including Zonal and Woreda Administrators, WFP, FAO, research institutes, vocational training centers, INGOs (Save/UK, Mercy Corps, Merlin, ADRA- Spain), cooperatives and current CHF beneficiaries. Furthermore the following needs assessment was supplemented with secondary sources that corroborate CHF findings and recommendations, including information from Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS), Multi-Agency assessments, USAID Drought Fact Sheets, OCHA Humanitarian Bulletins, Livelihoods Integration Unit, Pastoral Forum Ethiopia, Joint Government and Humanitarian Partners’ Document and IRIN news. 2. UN News Centre. UN-backed climate forum forecasts erratic rainy season in Horn of Africa. 29 February 2012 3. IRIN, Horn: Poor Rains Again this Season? http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportID=94842, 10 Feb 2012 CHF International: Ethiopia Needs Assessment Report 3 Somali Region – Gode & Warder Zones February 2012 Economic Recovery and Market Systems (ERMS) Recent Government of Ethiopia reports suggest market instability is negatively affecting access to basic goods and income generation opportunities. Escalating food prices continue to erode household purchasing power and accelerate the potential for economic regression and dependency. In general, food shortages resulting from interrupted trade patterns, combined with steadily increasing market prices for basic goods, continue to strain households’ economic coping mecha- nisms which are already severely eroded. Additionally, many pastoralists in Gode and Warder have lost their entire herds and have migrated to urban and peri-urban areas in search of emergency food, regressing into unskilled, “dropout” status. Having no assets, money or jobs, these people are living in makeshift settlements with no opportunities for employment outside of towns. According to the most recent FEWSNET Ethiopia Livelihoods Zones classification, the four woredas of Gode Zone in which RECOVER intends to operate (Gode, Adadle, Kelafo and Mustahil) fall into the Gode agropastoralists, Shabelle Riverine and Afder pastoral livelihood zones. This information was verified during the assessment, with these areas composed of agropastoralists generally cultivating along the Shabelle River, pastoralists, and the recent “pastoral dropouts.” Pastoral dropouts are generalized as those formerly engaged in pastoral livelihoods activities, but due to the loss of their animals are now largely unemployed, some earning income through occasional day labor activities or begging. Warder Zone is comprised almost exclusively of pastoralists, categorized by FEWSNET as in the Lowland-Hawd Pastoral livelihoods zone. However, similar to Gode Zone, last year’s severe drought conditions have resulted in the death of many livestock, thus around urban and peri-urban centers there are large concentrations of pastoral dropouts. Through focus group discussions the assessment team found that almost all participants had lost their livelihood, or it had