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The Story of U.S. Agricultural Estimates

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The Story of U.S. Agricultural Estimates ASz^¿-<> ' %m ■ Oi^f *+ j * i^Sî ïgrïcultural History Branch, ESA U.S. AGRICULTURAL ESTIMATES Sí&íCíS?; 1 ft 1 I I xi$*s:>5 icülíure / jîûi sfîca! Reporting Service THE STORY OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL ESTIMATES D Nat/0na,A NAL B¡d g ^^a, library ¿0f1 Baltimore ßivd Prepared by the Statistical Reporting Service U S. DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE «ATIONAL AGRICULTURAL LI BRAKY RECEIVED Miscellaneous Publication No. 1088 DEC 18 ..« U.5.U S ULfAKIMtNlDEPARTMENT Ul-AüKILULIUKtOF AGRICULTURE PROCUREMENT CURRENT SERIAL RECOfiOSSECTION Washington, D.C. 20250 April 1969 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 Price $1.75 (paper cover) 1)5 FOREWORD Throughout the history of the United States started, marking the beginning of a century there has been need for reliable and timely of continuous statistical service to agriculture information on the agriculture of the Nation. and the Nation. Emerson M. Brooks wrote In the early days of the young Republic, the the section of this book that covers the found- concern centered largely on obtaining infor- ing period. Brooks began work with the Crop mation on better farming methods and results Reporting Service in 1933, and was on the obtained from different cultural practices in headquarters staff of the Administrator of terms of greater yield. SRS when this history was prepared. Requirements for information changed as The next 40 years or so saw an accelerating the frontier pushed further inland, as manu- emphasis upon more efficient production for facturing began to move from the farm to the market. New tools and new machines shops and factories with the inevitable devel- marked the decline of horse and mule power opment of a consuming population, and as the and reduction in manpower needed to provide need for a more effective marketing system food and fiber for the Nation. These changes, evolved. Farmers everywhere were being together with population growth, the develop- pushed into the long and painful shift from ment of great urban areas, and the require- subsistence to commercial agriculture. Grad- ments for a marketing system to distribute ually demand developed for more specific sta- the food to these areas, exerted an increasing tistics that would serve the needs of the demand for more comprehensive, more pre- marketplace and guide national policy. cise, and more timely information on supplies The first part of this chronicle, covering the of food. A great depression and two world period between Washington and Lincoln, is a wars stimulated the need for agricultural sta- summary of the efforts of early leaders to ob- tistics. tain information about the farms of the new Beginning around 1940 a new trend in ag- Republic. Out of their efforts evolved several riculture began to be recognized and was ac- ideas and schemes for collection of current sta- centuated by the exigencies of World War II. tistical information; some of them were the Agribusiness became a popular word to denote basis for the methods employed in the early the common interests of the farm and the busi- efforts to provide a regular crop reporting ness enterprises dependent upon the farm. A service. This part of the story was prepared natural development of this concept was inte- by Walter H. Ebling, who served as Statisti- gration of functions. Vertical integration of cian for Wisconsin from 1927 until he retired agriculture typifies the most recent trend. in 1960. With this development the problems of meet- The second part of the story covers the pe- ing the needs for agricultural statistics have riod from the establishment of the Department become more complex. Users have become of Agriculture in 1862 to about 1905, i.e., from more sophisticated. With the increase in Lincoln to Theodore Roosevelt. This may be size of enterprise and greater investment characterized as the "founding period" of the of capital, business decisions have become Crop and Livestock Reporting Service (later more critical. The Statistical Report- the Statistical Reporting Service). The pro- ing Service is now called upon for greater gram found its footing; overall policies and accuracy and more detailed statistics as a objectives were crystallized, and an operating basis for these decisions. S. R. Newell pre- organization was shaped and reshaped. It was pared the history of the period from 1905 to during this period that the long time series of 1966. W. F. Callander, long-time Chief of the statistics of crop and livestock production were Crop and Livestock Reporting Service and m Chairman of the Crop Reporting Board, did a Research Service, were most generous in pro- great deal of research and prepared volum- viding guidance, furnishing materials from inous notes that were a great help in the task their files, and assisting with the manuscript of completing the story. and the format. Emerson M. Brooks made Personnel files in the National Archives many suggestions and helped in the final or- provided a mine of useful material. Letters, ganization of the book. Joseph A. Becker and speeches, comments, and papers written by- Charles E. Gage contributed by providing participants for various purposes, and usually Newell with firsthand information on many not considered at the time as documents of episodes in the history of the Service. historical significance, were equally useful. In This volume does not deal with the techni- addition to these sources, Newell drew heav- cal aspects of the Statistical Reporting Service ily on his close association with the crop and as it is presently operated. For a complete livestock estimating program since the early discussion of this aspect of the service see 1920's. His contribution was prepared after his "Statistical Reporting Service of the U.S. De- retirement as Chairman of the Crop Report- partment of Agriculture—Scope and Methods," ing Board in 1966. U.S.D.A. Miscellaneous Publication No. 967, Wayne D. Rasmussen and Vivian Wiser of 1964, 234 pages. the Agricultural History Branch, Economic Harry C. Trelogan Administrator IV CONTENTS Page PART I. EARLY EFFORTS TO GATHER AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS, 1781-1861 1 Prologue ^ Chapter 1. Evolution of Agricultural Data Systems 2 PART IL THE FOUNDING PERIOD, 1862 to 1905 16 Prologue ^ Chapter 2. A Beginning Is Made, 1862-65 IS Chapter 3. Regular Reports Are Established, 1866-81 29 Chapter 4. An Era of Progress, 1882-93 34 Chapter 5. A Decade of Confusion 1894-1905 39 PART III. A PERIOD OF GROWTH, 1905-30 48 Prologue - - - - ^ Chapter 6. Crop Reporting from 1905 Through World War I _ _ 50 Chapter 7. Post World War I—The Decade of the 1920,s 65 PART IV. AN ERA OF TURBULENT EXPANSION, 1930-66 _- 76 Prologue 11 Chapter 8. A New Era Starts with Henry A. Wallace 77 Chapter 9. Post World War II 88 Chapter 10. Inauguration of a Long-Range Plan for Develop- ment of the Statistical Reporting Service 95 PART V. APPENDIX JJJ8 Chapter 11. A Century of Agriculture in Charts and Pictures _ 108 Chapter 12. A Chronology of Development and Progress 125 Chapter 13. Heads of Agricultural Statistics 129 Chapter 14. Statutes Establishing and Enlarging the Depart- ment of Agriculture 129 Chapter 15. Laws Governing Crop Reports 131 Chapter 16. Crop Reporting Regulations 134 Chapter 17. Commissioners and Secretaries of Agriculture _. 137 PART I. EARLY EFFORTS TO GATHER AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS, 1781-1861 PROLOGUE Transportation was also developing. In 1805 the first corn-fat cattle were driven over the The United States became a Nation when mountains from the Ohio Valley to eastern the Articles of Confederation were ratified in markets. Building turnpikes started about 1781. The business of the new Nation was 1790. The first one of importance, the Phila- largely agriculture. In 1790, the census showed delphia-Lancaster Turnpike, was completed in about 4 million people; over 90 percent gain- 1794. The most celebrated turnpike was built fully employed were in agriculture. Farmers, by the Federal Government. This was the particularly those in the North, were thinking Cumberland Road, or National Pike, that ran in terms of their own and local needs first, west from Cumberland, Md. The first appropri- while in the South agriculture had tended to ation for this road was made in 1806 and work develop along more commercial lines. In 1790, started in 1811. By 1818 it had reached Wheel- tobacco alone accounted for 44 percent of total ing on the Ohio River and in 20 years, it had exports. Cotton soon began to take the limelight been pushed across Ohio and Indiana and on to and by the middle of the 19th century accounted Vandalia in central Illinois. The original plan for 54 percent of the value of total exports. was to extend the Cumberland Road to St. Louis, but by the time it reached Vandalia the Invention of new farm machinery and im- superiority of railroads had been established provement of the old were receiving active at- and the extension was abandoned. tention. Eli Whitney invented the cotton gin From the earliest times, rivers had been the in 1793 and in the same year Thomas Jefferson principal means of transportation. The limita- invented a moldboard plow based on scientific tions of river transportation became an in- principles. Four years later, Charles Newbold creasing problem in meeting the needs of the of New Jersey received a patent for the first new Nation as population increased, and as cast-iron plow. In 1833, John Lane began the industrial growth drew increasing numbers of manufacture of steel plows and Oberd Hursy industrial workers into urban centers. Canal- patented the first successful horse-drawn grain ization of the rivers in some instances allevi- reaper.
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